Professional Documents
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2. One of the limitations of portfolio theory is that the number of inputs required is very high. The >
number of inputs required is:
(a) N standard deviations of returns, N proportions and N(N-1)/2 correlations
(b) N standard deviations of returns, N proportions and N(N+1)/2 correlations
(c) N correlations, N(N-2)/2 proportions and N(N+3)/2 standard deviations of returns
(d) N standard deviations of returns, N(N-2)/2 proportions and N(N+3)/2 correlations
(e) N(N+3)/2 standard deviations of returns, N(N-2)/2 proportions and N correlations.
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3. Sravan Leathers Ltd. invested Rs.90 crore in a recent project. The company has a projected uniform >
cash inflow of Rs.25 crore p.a. for ten years from this project. If the cost of capital for the company is
10.5%, at which rate should the company reinvest the intermediate cash flows so as to obtain the
modified NPV as Rs.64.03 crore?
(a) 11% (b) 12.50% (c) 14.20% (d) 16% (e) 17.45%.
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4. Which of the following sets of data do you need to calculate the value of call option as per Black and >
Scholes model?
I. Share price divided by PV of exercise price, Standard deviation times the square root of time (i.e.
period of maturity)
II. Share price divided by PV of exercise price, Standard deviation times the square root of time (i.e.
period of maturity), share price.
III. Exercise price, standard deviation of the continuously compounded rate of return on the stock per
period, standard deviation times square root of time (i.e. period of maturity).
IV. Share price, exercise price, period of maturity, normal distribution table.
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10. Which of the following statements is/are true with respect to project appraisal criteria? >
I. Accounting rate of return neither differentiates projects with respect to the size of the investment
required for each project nor considers the benefits over the entire life of the projects.
II. Accounting rate of return differentiates projects with respect to the size of the investment
required for each project and considers the benefits over the entire life of the projects.
III. Modified NPV method explicitly incorporates the assumption about how the cash inflows are re-
invested once they are received, and avoids any influence of the cost of capital on the cash inflow
therein.
(a) Only (I) above (b) Only (II) above (c) Only (III) above
(d) Both (I) and (III) above (e) Both (II) and (III) above.
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11. Which of the following statement(s) is/are true with regard to the method of life cycle costing for the >
purpose of project budgeting?
I. Life cycle costing process considers the total costs of acquiring and maintaining the production
system bought by a manufacturing company.
II. Life cycle costing process assumes that the life of the products like, cement is infinitely long.
III. It is the cheapest method of project budgeting and hence is suitable for all types of projects.
IV. The budgeting exercise should be repeated as the market parameters are changing.
Cash flows –Rs.500 lakh Rs.260 lakh Rs.200 lakh Rs.250 lakh
If
unrecovered investment balances are calculated using a rate of 15%, what would be the final
investment balance?
(a) Rs.35.70 lakh (b) Rs.42.00 lakh (c) Rs.48.30 lakh
(d) Rs.63.41 lakh (e) Rs.72.92 lakh.
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13. Vishnu Glass Limited is setting up a plant in Hooghly, near Kolkata. It proposes to raise Rs.1.60 crores >
by a debenture issue. Face value of the debentures is Rs.100. The coupon rate is 12%. These
debentures are to be redeemed at the end of 8th year at par. Previously, the issue price was planned at a
price of Rs.75, but due to sudden drop in the market interest rate the company is pricing the same at
Rs.87.40. If the expected post-tax cost of the debenture to the company is 9%, the tax rate applicable is
(a) 55% (b) 52% (c) 46% (d) 44% (e) 41%.
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14. Shakti Ispat Ltd. has set up an alloy steel plant at a cost of Rs.434 crores during the last year. Cash >
inflow from the plant is expected to be Rs.50 crores by the end of this year and it has been estimated to
increase by 30% for the next two years and by 20% during the following year. Then, the company is
planning to sell this project as a going concern. If the cost of capital to the company is 11.50%, the
minimum acceptable divestment price is:
(a) Rs.210.31 crores (b) Rs.223.69 crores
(c) Rs.325.06 crores (d) Rs.334.00 crores (e) Rs.457.69 crores.
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15. The following information relates to a project network: >
Activity Time (days) Direct Cost (Rs.)
A–B 12 7,500
A–C 9 9,000
A–D 10 2,500
B–D 7 5,000
C–D 6 14,000 The indirect cost is
Rs.3,200 per day. Total cost of the project will be
(a) Rs.28,400 (b) Rs.38,000 (c) Rs.60,800 (d) Rs.98,800 (e) Rs.1,50,000.
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16. A project manager faces uncertainty regarding how the economy may perform during the next year. >
According to the estimates available with him, five different states of the economy, the probability of
the occurrence of each state as well as the expected NPV corresponding to that particular state are
given in the following table.
NPV of the project
State of the Economy Probability
(in Rs. crore)
1 0.15 25
2 0.25 40
3 0.40 60
4 0.15 85
5 0.05 105 The semi-variance, as a
measure of risk, of the project’s NPV would be:
(a) Rs.2 55.75 crore2 (b) Rs.2 76.55 crore2
(c) Rs.2103.08 crore2 (d) Rs.2203.85 crore2 (e) Rs.2460.69 crore2.
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17. The projected cash flows from a project under consideration to MNM Ltd. are as follows: >
(Rs. in lakhs)
0 1 2 3
Initial Flow (450)
Operating Flow 130 172 32
Terminal Flow 53
The cost of capital to the company is 18%. If the project is accepted, there would be an opportunity to
make a follow-on investment after three years from now. The outlay required for the follow-on
investment is 1.8 times of the first investment. The PV of inflows is expected to be higher than that
from the first investment by 1.8 times. If the standard deviation of the cash flows from the follow-on
investment is 23.1% and the risk-free rate of interest is 8%, the call value is
(a) 7.50 % of asset value (b) 8.00% of asset value
(c) 8.50% of asset value (d) 9.00% of asset value (e) 10.60% of asset value.
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18. Which of the following layouts considers the smooth flow of the materials as well as the efficient >
performance of the required processes?
(a) General Functional Layout (b) Transport Layout (c) Utilities Layout
(d) Communications Layout (e) Organizational Layout.
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19. Suswasthya Ltd. is a company, well known in India as a healthcare service provider. Which of the >
following factors may be considered to be most critical one regarding the choice of location of the
service delivery point?
(a) Location of the market (b) Transportation (c) Availability of labor
(d) Availability of infrastructure (e) Intangible Factors.
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20. Mr. Mondal is a potato wholesaler at Nasik. The per capita consumption of potatoes per day is about >
200 grams. Currently, potatoes are being priced at Rs.6 per kg. The price elasticity of potatoes is 0.62.
Due to present short supply of potatoes Mr. Mondal decides to increase the price. If he can sustain a
reduced sales volume up to 10%, the maximum price he can set is (Round off your answer up to one
decimal only)
(a) Rs.6.60 per kg (b) Rs.7.10 per kg (c) Rs.7.80 per kg
(d) Rs.8.50 per kg (e) Rs.9.80 per kg.
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21. XA and XB are two decision variables pertaining to the acceptance of Project A and Project B >
respectively, in an integer linear programming problem. If XA is less than or equal to XB, which of the
following statements is/are true?
I. They are mutually exclusive projects
II. They are complementary projects
III. Project A is contingent on Project B
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25. Which of the following is not true regarding Statement of Work (SoW) ? >
(a) The team members should take care to see that the SoW follows the Contract Work Break-down
structure to the utmost detail.
(b) SoW is generally prepared by key members of the project team as decided by the project
manager.
(c) Standard codes should be developed for materials, components and subsystems and all the
members should use standard codes only.
(d) When existing things are uncertain and are to be decided only in future, the procedure of making
decision under such circumstances should be specified only when things become certain.
(e) The SoW team should review estimates of the project cost in order to eliminate the non-essential
items that increase the total cost.
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26. Which of the following statements is/are true with regard to the different methods of project >
termination?
I. In the Extinction method, a project that is completed successfully may be divested to some other
business entity at a negotiated price.
II. In the Inclusion method, the newly completed project is included as a separate division with the
parent organization while personnel posted in the project are allowed to return back to their
earlier positions.
III. In the method of Integration, the properties and functions of the project are distributed among the
existing departments while the people working for the project get a better focus in their earlier
departments.
(a) Only (I) above (b) Only (II) above
(c) Both (I) and (III) above (d) Both (I) and (II) above
(e) Both (II) and (III) above.
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27. Which of the following activities may be termed as an example of support activity with regard to value >
chain analysis?
(a) The storekeeper of Elgin Motors Ltd. received the components that are to be used in the assembly
lines, supplied by Sona Spares Ltd.
(b) The Production Manager of Axle Shop looks after the process of conversion of the billets to axles
that are to be sold to Indian Railways
(c) Ajay, the Sales Executive of Sharp Cutter, collected the payments for the goods delivered during
the last year
(d) Mohan, the Graduate Engineer Trainee of High Voltage Switchgear, is working hard to develop a
superior method of production that is highly cost effective
(e) Rohan, the Service Engineer of Yamuna Motors, is very busy repairing the defective trucks as
complained by the customers.
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28. Which of the following is not true about the Little-Mirrles approach and the UNIDO approach for >
social cost benefit analysis?
(a) One of the similarities between the two approaches is in calculation of accounting (shadow)
prices for foreign exchange savings and unskilled labor
(b) L and M approach measures costs and benefits in terms of consumption whereas the UNIDO
approach measures costs and benefits in terms of uncommitted social income.
(c) Both the approaches consider factor of equity
(d) L and M approach measures costs and benefits in terms of border prices whereas the UNIDO
approach measures costs and benefits in terms of domestic rupees.
(e) L and M approach considers efficiency, savings and redistribution together for analysis whereas
in UNIDO these considerations are looked into and done in different stages.
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29. Which of the following methods is not used to alleviate the problems created by the traditional type of >
organization structures with respect to a project?
(a) Hierarchical referral (b) Rules and procedures
(c) Participation (d) Direct contact (e) Appointing project controller.
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30. The existing textile companies of Kenya feel threatened due to a high possibility of the entry of >
multinational companies into the industry. One of the probable reasons of such a threat may be
(a) Their production volumes are high
(b) They have developed wide distribution channels spread throughout Kenya
(c) The capital required to set up a profitable venture is high
(d) The production cost of the existing players is high
(e) They enjoy a strong brand image.
END OF SECTION A
Section B : Problems (50 Marks)
• This section consists of questions with serial number 1 – 5.
• Answer all questions.
• Marks are indicated against each question.
• Detailed workings should form part of your answer.
• Do not spend more than 110 - 120 minutes on Section B.
1. Texstyle Ltd. is considering an investment project that involves a current outlay of Rs.1,00,000, at a debt equity
ratio of 2:1. The expected life of the project is four years. The present cost of borrowing for the company is 10%
while the applicable tax rate is 46%. It is considering Silver Spring Ltd. as a proxy company, which has a debt-
equity ratio of 2 and an effective tax rate of 40%. The risk free rate is 6% and the expected return on the market
portfolio is 16%. The probability of the NPV of project cash flows being negative is 0.3264. The mean and
standard deviation of the cash flows are perfectly correlated. The mean of the cash flows are as given below:
END OF SECTION B
6. The success of projects hinges on the project manager. In addition to having technical expertise required for the
project he is managing, the project manager has to possess managerial skills and have a vibrant and dynamic
personality to succeed. The core competencies that project managers must cultivate and nurture to succeed can be
broadly divided as soft and hard skills.
Discuss the core competencies you should look for in a successful project manager. Explain why leadership
aspects are more critical than management aspects with regard to project management?
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7. Project budgeting is an important exercise. The project manager is required to make different estimates at different
stages of the project during the budgeting process of any project in order to reduce the possibility of adverse
variations.
Discuss the various types of estimates that are to be made during the budgeting process of any project.
END OF SECTION C
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Section B : Problems
Rs. in crore
Costs
Construction of Road One Shot 700
Maintenance cost Annual 1
Development cost of land One Shot 50
Loss of earning by land settlers Annual 15
Grant One Shot 50
Benefits
Saving in the cost of shipment Annual 3
Annual income from crops First five years 50
Annual income from crops Sixth year 150
onward
Value of timber output during first year First year only 5
Value of timber output during second Second year 1
year onward onward
Value of boats released One shot
0.03
(b).
Nature and Periodicity of cash flow Rs. in crore
One shot -799.97
Annual for entire life -13
Annual for first five years 50
Annual for sixth years onwards 150
Only during first year 5
Annual second year onwards 1
5 +1 ×12.212
=-799.97 -13 ×12.2335 + 50 ×12.2335 +150 × 12.108 ×0.6806 +
1.08
So, from the social point of view the project has a NPV of Rs. 904.72 Crore.
The following network shows the sequence of activities involved in repairing the liner of a boiler:
(c) The expected time and standard deviation for the completion of the activities will be as follows:
Sl. No. Activities te s
A Tube purging through sand blasting 2.67 0.33
B Removal of the Economizer, checking and rectification 4.33 0.67
C Loosening the position of the Downcomer, checking and rectification 5.00 0.17
D Removal of the Superheater, checking and rectification 3.33 0.33
E Tube Cutting, Fabrication and Testing 4.00 0.33
F Replacement of the Tubes and testing the joints 7.33 0.33
G Fitting the Superheater 3.67 0.50
H Positioning the Downcomer 1.50 0.17
I Fitting the Economizer 2.50 0.50
J Trial Run 0.67 0.20
Sl. No. Activities te s
T Contract bidding for refractory work and awarding the same 4.00 0.33
U Removal of the Rear Wall 2.67 0.33
V Repairing the Liner of the Rear Wall and fitting the same 2.33 0.25
W1 or W2 Removal of the side walls (either of the sides) 1.83 0.13
X1 or X2 Repairing the Liner of either of the side walls and building it 2.33 0.23
Y Removal of the Front Wall 3.17 0.50
Z Repairing the Liner of the Front Wall and fitting the same 2.83 0.17
From the given figure, the critical path may be identified as: 1–3–5–6–8–9–11–12–13–14–15 and the duration of
the critical path is 31 weeks. The variance of the duration of the critical path has been obtained as 1.0959 weeks 2
and hence the standard deviation is 1.047 week.
Therefore, the probability that the project may be completed by 30 weeks is given by:
30 − 31
1.047
Probability (D 30 weeks) = N(z) where, z = = – 0.9552 ≅ – 0.96
From the standard normal table, we get, N(– 0.96) = 0.1658 = 16.58% i.e. the required probability.
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4.
Scenario 1
Probabilit Mean Cash Flow
Year Cash Flow y Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow Probability
1 95 0.25 155 0.5 195 0.25 150
2 171 0.25 279 0.5 351 0.25 270
3 203 0.25 331 0.5 415 0.25 320
4 85 0.25 140 0.5 175 0.25 135
5 60 0.25 98 0.5 124 0.25 95
6 35 0.25 58 0.5 73 0.25 56
Scenario 2
Cash Probabilit Mean Cash Flow
Year Flow y Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow Probability
1 36 0.25 104 0.5 128 0.25 93
2 63 0.25 185 0.5 227 0.25 165
3 58 0.25 168 0.5 206 0.25 150
4 41 0.25 117 0.5 145 0.25 105
5 23 0.25 67 0.5 83 0.25 60
6 17 0.25 50 0.5 63 0.25 45
150 270 320 135 95 56
+ + + + + −295
(1.12) (1.12) 2 (1.12) 3 (1.12) 4 (1.12)5 (1.12) 6
NPV of cash inflows in scenario I= = 450
93 165 150 105 60 45
+ + + + + −295
(1.12) (1.12) 2 (1.12)3 (1.12) 4 (1.12) 5 (1.12) 6
NPV of cash inflows in scenario II= = 150
450
250
u = = 1.8
150
250
d = = 0.6
r = 1.065
Cu = Max (450 – 295, 0) = 155
Cd = Max (150 –295, 0) = 0
Value of call option
r −d u−r
Cu . + Cd .
u −d u −d
r
=
1.065 0.6
155. 0
1.80 0.6
1.065
=
= Rs.56.40crores
The value of the option to postpone the investment is Rs.56.40crore.
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5.
Project Initial Investment BCR Project Initial Investment BCR
1 22 1.7 6 32 1.15
2 28 1.5 7 44 0.96
3 46 1.06 8 48 1.03
4 51 1.2 9 56 1.12
5 66 0.98 10 64 1.18 The
NPV of the first five projects are as follows:
Project 1 2 3 4 5
NPV (in Rs. crore) 15.40 14.00 2.76 10.20 – 1.32 The post tax cost of capital = 12%
The NPVs of the projects starting one year hence have been calculated as follows:
Project 6 7 8 9 10
NPV at the start Project 4.80 – 1.76 1.44 6.72 11.52
NPV (in Rs. crore) 4.29 – 1.57 1.29 6.00 10.29
Now, the outright rejection would be the projects with negative NPV and hence the projects to be considered for
planning are 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10.
Now the formulation as per integer programming would be as follows:
Objective function:
Maximize: 15.4 X1 + 14.00 X2 + 2.76 X3 + 10.2 X4 + 4.29 X6 + 1.29 X8 + 6 X9 + 10.29 X10
The constraints are as follows:
22 X1 + 28 X2 + 46 X3 + 51 X4 + S1 = 100 ……………….Cash flow during first year
32 X6 + 48 X 8 + 56 X9 + 64 X10 + S2 = 125 + S1 × 1.07….. Cash flow during second year
As project 7 is rejected so the interdependency between projects 3 and 7 will not figure in the formulation.
X4 + X9 2X1 as the projects 4 and 9 are contingent on project 1
2 X10 X2 + X4 as the project 10 is contingent on project 2 and project 4
Xj = {0,1} where j = 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10
Projects starting now 1 2 3 4
Initial Outlay 22 28 46 51
NPV 15.4 14 2.76 10.2
Projects starting a year hence 6 8 9 10
Initial Outlay 32 48 56 64
NPV 4.29 1.29 6 10.29
Combination of projects Initial Allowed initial Outlay for Combination of projects Total
starting now Outlay the next set starting one year hence NPV
Projects 1-2-3 96.00 129.28 Projects 6 –8 37.74
Projects 6 – 9 42.45
Projects 8 – 9 39.45
Projects 1-3 68.00 159.24 Projects 6 – 8 23.74
Projects 6 – 9 28.45
Projects 8 – 9 25.45
Projects 6 – 8 – 9 29.74
Projects 1– 4 73.00 153.89 Projects 6 – 8 31.18
Projects 6 – 9 35.89
Projects 8 – 9 32.89
Projects 6 – 8 – 9 37.18
Projects 2 – 3 74.00 152.82 Projects 6 – 8 – 9 28.34
Projects 2 – 4 79.00 147.47 Projects 9 – 10 40.49
Projects 6 – 8 – 10 40.07
As the total NPV is maximized when the company selects Projects 1,2,3,6,9, so, the company should select that project
portfolio.
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7. There are four types of estimates, based on the inputs required and accuracy. The first type is called Order-of-
magnitude analysis. This method is used when the project is still in the conceptual phase. In this method, the cost
of the project is estimated without using any engineering data. The estimate is rough and is arrived at using the
past experience (relating to projects that may or may not be similar to the one on hand). The output of the order-of-
magnitude analysis may be ± 35 percent of the actual costs.
Next is the approximate estimate. It is also made without detailed engineering data. This estimate is made by
interpolating the expenditure on similar projects undertaken earlier. The expenditures made on the earlier projects
are adjusted to reflect changes in price levels, etc. The adjustment is generally made by using rules of thumb,
indexation methods, parametric curves and other methods which are simple to use unlike sophisticated or
advanced techniques. The variation of the estimate made by approximation compared to actual expenses at the
time of implementing the project is generally 15 percent on either side.
Definitive estimates are more accurate and are based on detailed engineering data, well laid out plans, clear
specifications, and reliable unit prices. Definitive estimates are also called detailed estimates. Their variation
compared to the actual expenses is expected to be less than 5 percent.
Finally, we have the method of estimation using estimation manuals. When this method is proposed to be used,
estimation manuals have to be developed first, if they are not already available. The manuals contain standard
costs for various tasks. The standard costs given in the manuals are determined taking into consideration all factors
such as machine down time, lunch breaks, clean up time, set up time, etc. Estimates are developed for groups of
similar tasks. These estimates are considered to be superior to the engineering standards, as all the factors are not
accounted for in the engineering standards. When this method is used, up to 90 percent of the activities are
estimated according to the standard costs given in the manual. The remaining 10 percent, which are generally non-
repetitive tasks and hence are not amenable to development of standards, are estimated separately. This leads us to
the drawback of this method – only projects which contain to a significant extent activities that are common with
other projects can be estimated using a manual. For projects containing unique activities in a major proportion, this
method is not useful. Another drawback is the reliability of the estimates. It is very difficult not only to develop,
but also to constantly update the manuals, without compromising on the quality of the estimate.
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