Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ﻣﺎe a u aquo 水 ర പ യസ ് സ ്a g u a u m a e v a
a tl amanzi ینﺎ ﭘv a t n जल dour auga n eri a آب
b a n y u y n i b i a k v o জলv e s i v a tte n y a ’ νερό a cq u a ర
aque agua vesi cai 물 ji น ํ
้
า u r su த ண
Archimedes
Mach Jacobi
Thesis submitted by
Emad Shudifat
In Fulfillment of the Requirements for
the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at:
French Institute of Forestry, Agricultural and
Environmental Engineering
( ENGREF-Montpellier- France )
Lagrange Reynolds
Venturi Euler
MREA
Mission Régionale Eau-Agriculture
MREA – Amman – Jordanie
Emad Shudifat
In Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at:
- Chairperson / Président :
- Reviewer / Rapporteur :
- Examiner / Examinateur :
- Invitee / Invité :
i
Acknowledgements
ii
and general advices throughout this study and teaching me how to use their
software FINESSE.
I want to thank several people from Agricultural and Environmental
Engineering Research Institute (Cemagref-Bordeaux) for the time that they
spent for me and for receiving me for one week to carry out some relevant
research work.
Dr. Jacques Sau, from University of Lyon I, is acknowledged for his
contribution and for interesting towards my studies. Many thanks go also to
the committee members.
Far too many people to mention individually have assisted in so
many ways during my work. They all have my sincere gratitude.
I am grateful to all my friends from Aix-En-Provence and
Montpellier Cities for being the surrogate family during the four years I
stayed in France and for their continued moral support there after. “My
Tunisians brothers” are especially thanked for the warm atmosphere.
A penultimate and sincere thank-you goes to my wonderful family. I
am very grateful to both of my parents for their love, support, and belief in
me, and never once complaining about how infrequently I visit in Jordan
while I was working on this study here in France.
My final, and most heartfelt, acknowledgment must go to “my wife”
whom I never even met nor found and, if she has been with me, she would
surely have had a knack for boosting my morale during rough times, and
she would have been acknowledged for her understanding, endless patience
and encouragement when it is most required. Her support, encouragement,
and companionship would have turned my journey through this thesis into
a pleasure. For all that, and for being everything I am not, she has my
everlasting love, and I dedicate this thesis to her.
iii
Abstract
iv
Thesis objectives and organization
1. Chapter N° 1:
This chapter is an introduction to the water distribution and
management challenges and solutions where certain concepts are presented
such as, Water Utility Production Management System, Information
Technology (IT), Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering
(CIME).
2. Chapter N° 2:
In this chapter the thesis problematic, methodology, and objectives
are presented. The Canal de Provence Company and the eastern branch of
Toulon City’s network are also presented here.
3. Chapter N° 3:
This chapter is an introduction to the water distribution systems
hydraulic, modeling, and simulation. Their basics concepts, methodologies
and applications will be discussed.
4. Chapter N°4:
This chapter relates to the first mainstay of the optimization and
management of water networks that is the modeling softwares available in
the market, and also the softwares already used at SCP, and their
applications.
5. Chapter N°5:
This chapter is about the fundamental numerical methods for solving
water pipe networks problem.
v
6. Chapter N°6:
This chapter is an introduction to SCADA system, the second
mainstay of the optimization and management of water networks, and its
role and its integration in the “Real Time” modeling and simulation of the
water networks. The operation of SCADA system of SCP also will be
described.
7. Chapter N°7:
This chapter approaches the third mainstay of the optimization of
water networks; the process of the calibration of the hydraulic parameters
of the model: roughness and demand factor. The calibration of “Toulon
Est” network also will be presented.
8. Chapter N°8:
This chapter approaches the fourth mainstay of the optimization and
management of water networks; demand prediction. The theoretical base of
FINESSE module of demand prediction will be explained in detail and the
SCP’s demand prediction technique too.
9. Chapter N°9:
This chapter is concerned with the optimization of water distribution
network where the optimization terminologies, applications, and methods
will be presented, and the optimization method implemented in FINESSE
will be presented too.
vi
Acronyms
vii
- FCV : Flow Control Valve
- FEM : Finite Element methods
- FFT : Fast-Fourier-Transform
- FINESSE : Fully Integrated Network Editing, Simulation and
Scheduling Environment Software
- FPE : Final Prediction Error
- GA : Genetic Algorithm
- GAMS : General Algebraic Modeling System
- GIDAP : Graphical Interactive Demand Analysis and
Prediction
- GINAS : Graphical and Interactive program for Network
Analysis and Simulation for water distribution system
- GIS : Geographical Information System
- GRG : Generalized Reduced Gradient
- GSM : Global System for Mobile Communication
- GUI : Graphical User Interface
- HGL : Hydraulic Gradient Line
- HW : Holt-Winters method
- IEEE : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
- IP : Integer Programming problem
- IT : Information Technology
- LFM : Loop Flow Model
- LP : Linear Programming
- LTCCP : Long Term Council Community Plan
- MA : Moving-Average
- MAE : Mean Absolute Error
- MIP : Mixed Integer Programming problem
- MM : Mixed Model
viii
- MMI/HMI : Man Machine Interface/Human Machine Interface
- MRPE : Mean Relative Percentage Error
- MSE : Mean Squared Error
- MUX : Multiplexing
- NAS : Network Analysis Software
- NGF : Nivellement Général de la France (English: French
National Levelling)
- NLP : Non-Linear Programming
- NM : Nodal Model
- NPSHa : Available Net Positive Suction Head
- NPSHr : Required Net Positive Suction Head
- NRV : Non-Return Valve
- PACA : Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur
- PACF : Partial Autocorrelation Function
- PCV : Pressure Control Valve
- PRV : Pressure Reducing Valve
- PSV : Pressure Sustaining Valve
- RMINLP : Relaxed Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming
- RT : Remote Transmission
- RTU : Remote Terminal Units
- SBB : Simple Branch and Bound algorithm
- SCADA : Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition
- SCE : Shuffled Complex Evolution
- SCP : Société du Canal de Provence (English: Canal de
Provence Company)
- SES : Single-Exponential Smoothing
- SIDECM : Syndicat Intercommunal de Distribution d’Eau de la
Corniche des Maures (English: Water Distributing
Association of La Corniche des Maures)
ix
- TCV : Throttle Control Valve
- TES : Triple-Exponential Smoothing
- UK : United Kingdome
- VMS : Virtual Memory System operating system
- WAN : Wide Area Network
- WDMs : Water Distribution Models
- WDS : Water Distribution System
- WMA : Weighted Moving Average
- WSS : Water Software Systems
x
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements......................................................................................ii
Abstract ....................................................................................................... iv
Acronyms ...................................................................................................vii
Table of Contents .......................................................................................xi
List of Figures ............................................................................................ xv
List of Tables............................................................................................xvii
CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................. 1
1. Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions ... 1
1.1 Introduction................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Water utility production management system .............................................. 6
1.3 Information integration technology in water utilities ................................... 8
1.4 Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering, CIME ................... 10
1.5 Management and operational control of water supply and distribution
systems........................................................................................................ 13
1.6 Use computer model of water network systems ......................................... 15
CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................... 18
2. Thesis Problematic and Objectives .................................................. 18
2.1 Canal de Provence Company and needs for modeling tools ...................... 18
2.2 Thesis objectives......................................................................................... 20
2.3 Presentation of Canal de Provence Company (SCP) .................................. 22
2.4 Presentation of the “Toulon Est” water supply network............................. 25
2.5 Description of the existing hydraulic system of “Toulon East” ................. 25
2.6 Operation and hydraulic management ........................................................ 31
2.7 Water demand of the zone “Toulon Est” .................................................... 32
2.8 Development program of the zone “Toulon Est” ....................................... 33
CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................... 34
3. Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling .. 34
3.1 Anatomy of water distribution network system.......................................... 34
3.1.1 Source of water ................................................................................... 34
3.1.2 Customers of water ............................................................................. 34
3.1.3 Transport facilities .............................................................................. 35
3.1.4 System configurations......................................................................... 35
3.1.5 Solving network problems .................................................................. 37
3.2 Water distribution network system simulation ........................................... 37
3.3 Water distribution network system modeling............................................. 38
3.3.1 Application of models......................................................................... 38
3.3.2 Modeling process................................................................................ 40
3.3.3 Network model elements .................................................................... 43
3.3.4 Water quality modeling ...................................................................... 44
3.3.5 Model simplification (skeletonisation) ............................................... 44
3.3.6 Model calibration................................................................................ 45
3.3.7 Model maintenance............................................................................. 46
xi
3.4 Network water consumption....................................................................... 46
3.5 Network system security............................................................................. 47
3.6 Using SCADA system for hydraulic modeling .......................................... 49
3.7 Network optimization ................................................................................. 49
CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................... 50
4. Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares50
4.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 50
4.2 Market study for water distribution modeling softwares............................ 51
4.2.1 Market study aims............................................................................... 51
4.2.2 Market studies tasks............................................................................ 52
4.3 Identifying and analyzing competitor products .......................................... 53
4.3.1 Final product list ................................................................................. 53
4.3.2 Sources of Information ....................................................................... 53
4.3.3 Product information ............................................................................ 54
4.3.4 Omitted products................................................................................. 56
4.3.5 Developer information........................................................................ 59
4.3.6 Criteria ................................................................................................ 61
4.4 General conclusions.................................................................................... 68
4.5 Water distribution networks simulation and modeling softwares at the SCP.
.................................................................................................................... 69
4.6 FINESSE..................................................................................................... 70
4.7 EPANET Software...................................................................................... 76
CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................... 78
5. Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem..................... 78
5.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 78
5.2 Conceptual model of a water network ........................................................ 79
5.3 Fundamental mathematical model .............................................................. 80
5.4 Theoretical properties of the mathematical model ..................................... 88
5.5 Numerical methods ..................................................................................... 89
5.5.1 Hardy-Cross method ........................................................................... 89
5.5.2 Newton-Raphson method ................................................................... 90
5.5.3 Linear Theory method ........................................................................ 90
5.5.4 Finite Element Methods...................................................................... 90
5.5.5 Linear Graph theory............................................................................ 91
5.6 Extended-period simulation........................................................................ 91
5.7 FINESSE simulator (GINAS)..................................................................... 92
CHAPTER 6 ............................................................................................... 94
6. Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation ...... 94
6.1 Objectives of SCADA systems for water distribution network.................. 94
6.2 Components of a SCADA system .............................................................. 96
6.3 Data acquisition mechanisms...................................................................... 97
6.4 Types of SCADA data and SCADA data format ....................................... 98
6.5 Handling of data during SCADA failures and processing of data from the
field ............................................................................................................. 98
6.6 Responding to data problems and verifying data validity .......................... 99
6.7 Integrating SCADA systems and hydraulic models ................................. 100
xii
6.8 Description of SCADA systems at SCP (Canivet, 2002) ......................... 102
6.8.1 The equipments of the supervisor system......................................... 102
6.8.2 Description of the measuring chain of SCP...................................... 103
6.8.3 The measurements acquisition in real-time ...................................... 107
6.8.4 Measurements conciliation technique............................................... 108
6.9 Establishing link between FINESSE SCADA Gateway and CGTC
supervisor.................................................................................................. 108
xiii
8.9.1 Approach........................................................................................... 186
8.9.2 Comparison of the prediction results ................................................ 197
8.9.3 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 205
References................................................................................................. 281
xiv
List of Figures
xv
Figure 7.25 : Calculated delta’s values (Δ)................................................................... 155
Figure 7.26 : Comparison between the ε_values .......................................................... 156
Figure 8.1 : Example of demand prediction at SCP – Toulon Est – 2006.................... 180
Figure 8.2 : GIPAD’s demand prediction stages .......................................................... 182
Figure 8.3 : Example of original vs. smoothed demand - Year 2002 ........................... 187
Figure 8.4 : Measured demand and the periodogram ................................................... 188
Figure 8.5 : Autocorrelation function of demand series ............................................... 193
Figure 8.6 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2002 .................... 194
Figure 8.7 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2003 .................... 195
Figure 8.8 : Autocorrelation function of residual ......................................................... 196
Figure 8.9 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2002 ........................................... 199
Figure 8.10 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2003 ......................................... 200
Figure 8.11 : Prediction methods comparison – July 31, 2003..................................... 201
Figure 8.12 : Measured and predicted demand (July 31, 2003) ................................... 202
Figure 8.13 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2004 ......................................... 203
Figure 8.14 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2005 ......................................... 204
Figure 9.1 : Optimization process................................................................................. 207
Figure 9.2 : Discretization by valve aperture adjustment ............................................. 230
Figure 9.3 : Valve adjustment approach ....................................................................... 231
Figure 9.4 : Discretization by pump speed adjustment................................................. 232
Figure 9.5 : Pump speed adjustment approach ............................................................. 234
Figure 9.6 : Timestep adjustment approach.................................................................. 236
Figure 9.7 : Network configuration example 1............................................................. 237
Figure 9.8 : Network configuration example 2............................................................. 238
Figure 10.1 : Hydraulic characteristics of the pump - turbine unit............................... 245
Figure 10.2 : Hydraulic profile of Toulon Est network ................................................ 248
Figure 10.3 : 900mm-pipeline profile connecting the station to Trapan ...................... 249
Figure 10.4 : 700mm-pipeline profile connecting the station and the supply pipe ...... 249
Figure 10.5 : General view of the project ..................................................................... 250
Figure 10.6 : Turbine operating points ......................................................................... 253
Figure 10.7 : Operation of the Trapan pumping station at different conditions ........... 260
Figure 10.8 : NPSH – Toulon Est pumping station ...................................................... 262
Figure 10.9 : FINESSE model for “Toulon Est” .......................................................... 271
Figure 10.10 : Pumping and turbining in the same time............................................... 271
Figure 10.11 : Toulon Est in pump-mode under normal operation .............................. 273
Figure 10.12 : Pump control – Pump optimal continuous solution .............................. 273
Figure 10.13 : Toulon Est in turbine-mode under normal operation ............................ 275
Figure 10.14 : Toulon Est in turbine-mode and water tanks between Les Laures and
Trapan are not isolated.................................................................................................. 276
xvi
List of Tables
xvii
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 1
CHAPTER 1
1. Water Distribution and Management
Challenges and Solutions
1.1 Introduction
Human life, as with all animal and plant life on the planet, is
dependent upon water. Not only do we need water to grow our food,
generate our power and run our industries, but we need it as a basic part of
our daily lives; our bodies need to ingest water every day to continue
functioning. Communities and individuals can exist without many things if
they have to; they can be deprived of comfort, of shelter, even of food for a
period, but they can not be deprived of water and survive for more than a
few days. Because of the intimate relationship between water and life,
water is woven into the fabric of all cultures, religions and societies in
many ways (Gleick, 1999).
Water and civilization, two terms historically associated. The first
civilizations appeared by the big rivers (Gleick, 1999). The flowing waters
of the Euphrates, the Nile, the Indus and the Yangtze were silent witnesses
of the human settlements along their banks and the flourishing of their
culture. They switched from subsistence agriculture to organized farming
in a short time. Water can be social, economic, private and public good.
Water is important to the process of economic development improving both
individual and social well being. It is essential for life and health and has
cultural and religious significance (Suleiman, 2002).
Access to basic water requirements is a fundamental right implicitly
supported by international law, declarations and state practices. This right
is even more basic than other explicit human rights as can be seen by its
recognition in some local traditional laws or religious norm (Gleick, 1999).
The holly Quran for instance, says that “And we made from water every
living thing”. This forthright statement explicitly correlates water with life
(Suleiman, 2002).
The world-wide consumption of the last century has increased seven
folds. In the last half of the XX century the answer to this increase in the
demand was basically the construction of more and larger hydraulic
infrastructures, especially reservoirs and canals for deviating rivers. More
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 2
than 85% of the 40,000 reservoirs built in the world have been constructed
in the last 35 years (Pérez, 2003). Such engineering works have guaranteed
the supply of water to great urban and rural areas but have, in the opinion
of ecologists, led to the degradation of the fluvial deltas and increased the
risk of extinction of some species in wetland areas.
Nobody can ignore the fact that it is not possible to satisfy a demand
without limit with a permanent increase of the offer of a commodity that
has ecological, physical and economic limitations. As the most accessible
sources of water are exhausted new resources are obtained in an
increasingly complicated and hence more expensive way. This leads to a
worse quality of the resource and the necessity of a new culture of water
usage based on a more rational and sustainable use of this valuable
resource (Pérez, 2003).
The challenge is to spend less and more efficiently. To guarantee a
sufficient supply of water does not in itself suffice to solve the distribution
problems. It is necessary to continue conserving water. This is a broad
concept that includes all those techniques orientated to help in the saving
and better management of this liquid (UNICEF, 2000).
Such techniques include the modernization and rehabilitation of the
networks to minimize leakage. This is a problem that affects not only the
urban centers where 30% of the water that enters the network does not get
to its destiny at the consumption points but also the watering
infrastructures. Installation of low consumption devices nowadays allows
savings of 50% without losing quality in the service. There are models of
taps, showers and toilets with such improved efficiency. Wastewater can be
reused after a good process of depuration. Education campaigns are crucial
for saving water and the introduction of new tariffs can stimulate such
savings (UNICEF, 2000). The contamination of both surface water (rivers
become increasingly polluted as they pass by cities and industrial areas)
and ground water (polluted by nitrates, heavy metals and organic
components and affected by salinization) should be reduced.
Water provision can not be separated from two other inter-related
factors - sanitation and health. This is because one of the primary causes of
contamination of water is the inadequate or improper disposal of human
(and animal) excreta. This often leads to a cycle of infection and
contamination that remains one of the leading causes of illness and death in
the developing world.
Drinking water quality is not an objective any more but an obligation
(Pérez, 2003). Access to clean water is fundamental to survival and critical
for reducing the prevalence of many water related diseases. For centuries,
Europe had to cope with plagues and epidemics unaware of their origin. In
1854 in London, during a cholera epidemic, Dr John Snow discovered that
the means of dissemination of this disease was water. He treated the water
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 3
with chlorine and it eradicated the disease. After this experience the
temporary treatment of water with chlorine began, first in the United
Kingdom and afterwards in the United States becoming generalized at the
beginning of the 20th century. It brought about the reduction of diseases
such as Hepatitis A, Cholera and Typhus. The purification of water with
chlorine has been the sanitary measure that has saved most lives in the last
century.
In addition, the provision of safe drinking water and proper
sanitation has the greatest overall impact upon national development and
public health. 1.1 billion people in the world are still without some form of
improved water supply, 2.4 billion live without adequate sanitation and 5
million people a year, of mostly children under age 5, die from illnesses
linked to unsafe water, unclean domestic environments and improper
sanitation (UNICEF, 2000).
The modern treatment stations use slow filtration systems that
reproduce the conditions of the riverbeds. The European legislation defines
three types of water depending on which treatment it undergoes. This
ranges from the simplest physical treatment and disinfecting to the most
sophisticated physical and chemical treatment and disinfecting. Now in the
quick filtration plants water undergoes treatment that includes different
phases: caption, mixing with coagulating and reactive substances,
decantation and sand separation, flocculation, sedimentation, filtration, and
disinfecting. This procedure may last five hours and some new tools have
been added. These technologies allow the fulfillment of the quality
standards. Active carbon (produced by the combustion in special and
controlled conditions of organic substances) that presents a big exposed
area can trap by absorption suspended particles and dissolved substances.
The disinfecting process using Ozone is very efficient but is more
expensive than the use of chlorine. Inverse osmosis uses membranes to
separate dissolved salts. In general solar technologies applied to the
purification of water are only useful for water with low contamination.
Desalination of water is the other choice to increase the availability
of water instead of reusing residual water. It is a perfectly viable solution
from a technological point of view. The problem is the high cost of the
technology. Nevertheless the latest advances in this technology and the
introduction of inverse osmosis have decreased the energetic cost. The cost
seems to be decreasing and the supporters of this technology believe that
soon this water will be cheaper. On the other hand the energy needed is a
great drawback for obtaining a sustainable supply of water by this method.
Although the chemical purification methodologies guarantee that the
water that comes from the taps is all right from the sanitary point of view in
the last few years the consumption of bottled water has increased
spectacularly. This happens despite consumers having to pay between 500
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 4
and 1,000 times more for this water than that in the public network, and
that in more than 50% of cases this bottled water has the same quality as
the tap water except for some salts and aggregated minerals. Consumption
of bottled water increases in the world by 7% each year (WHO, 2001). The
reason has to be found in the fact that consumers do not like tap water,
sometimes because it has a disagreeable taste or odor or sometimes because
it can appear white color.
Aware of this problem the distribution companies have started plans
to determine and increase the quality of the water offered to their
customers. For example the Societat General d’Aigües de Barcelona
(Agbar), in collaboration with the French Society Lyonaise des Eaux and
the North American Water Works Association Research, has developed a
system to quantify the color, taste and odor of the drinking water. If there is
any case in which one of these characteristics becomes unpleasant the
causes are discovered and corrected. For this purpose there are some
professionals that can detect 30 different tastes and smells in the water like
the ones who work with wine. Typical tastes of chlorine, humid soil,
metallic, cooked vegetable or the classical acid, sweet, salt and bitter can
define the water. After the taste process the chemical analysis allows the
detection of substances that produce such problems and the water can be
treated adequately.
Unlike other sectors, water sector is the closest approximation to the
ideal “natural monopoly” of economic texts (OECD, 1998). The required
infrastructure is costly and specialized. Therefore, duplication by potential
competitors would be prohibitive. As a consequence, one can not count on
competition to maintain reasonable prices and levels of services. Although
privatization does not work magic in the public area, experience has
approved that it is quite successful in those industries where technology is
flexible in the sense of permitting multicompany use of facilities. In the
water sector, the natural monopoly problem has not been overcome and
unless, there is a competitive market, private sector involvement will not be
able to offer the potential efficiency gains.
Actually what is apparent after all these facts is that the water that is
consumed is cheap but the solutions to guarantee its availability and quality
are not. The reality is that water is a limited resource and should be treated
not just as a social commodity, but an economical one too. Citizens should
use water in the most efficient way and pay for the real cost of this precious
resource. The Worldwatch Institute estimates that only 15% of the real cost
is paid, a fact which does not encourage water conservation (Suleiman,
2002).
Careful usage as recommended by experts should be supported by
different initiatives. Specific legislation and recommendations for the
population about this necessity would help avoid wastage. The adoption of
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 5
financial incentives would stimulate the substitution (for uses that do not
require high quality water) of the potable water with that coming from the
regeneration of residual waters. The objective of these programs would be
the adjustment of the resource to the demands in order to liberate high
quality flows to the most appropriate uses. It is not sensible to use potable
water to water the plants, wash the car, or clean the streets.
Managing water as economic good means that water will be
allocated among competitive users in a way that maximize the net benefit
from the amount of water (OECD, 1998). As a result, the cost of water
should consider the full economic cost including the opportunity cost. This
may cause poor people to be priced out of the market leaving them without
adequate social good. The recognition of the economic character of the
water was associated with the existence of the water market but, it has not
been clear so far how practically, to achieve the rights balance between
managing water as both a social and economic good.
International human rights law recognizes that without access to
adequate water, it is not possible to attain many other explicit rights, such
as life, health, education, gender equity, and adequate standards of livings.
Some women in Ghana have correlated lack of water with lack of dignity
and even sometimes violence in the home under the growing emphasis on
the market to manage water supply, certainly, and if the market fail to
provide the water basic requirements, it is the responsibility of the state to
meet these needs under the human right agreements. At the World Water
Forum in The Hague, it was the subject of heated debate, with the World
Bank and the water companies seeking to have it declared as a human need
that is not semantic. If water is a human need, it can be provided by the
private sector while if it is a human right, it can not be sold. Water is not
simply a handout or a market commodity that can be priced through
contractual agreement. A human rights perspective demands authentic
popular consultation and participation in decisions affecting the production
and distribution of water (UNICEF, 2000).
The problem outlined in the previous paragraphs affects all of
society. Some of the solutions suggested so far depend on the customers,
others depend on the governments, and some depend on production
companies and some on the distribution companies. Distribution of water
also presents some challenges. Distribution has improved in the last century
although it existed in ancient civilizations.
The quality control of the water that flows through the network is an
obligation nowadays. The physical conditions of the water offered to the
customers are an objective of all the distribution companies. It is necessary
to assure a pressure of water and a reliability of the service so that people,
industry, hostelry, hospitals and all of society can trust in a basic service.
Another important aspect already mentioned is the huge quantity of water
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 6
(WaterCIME, 1995).
Some of the problems associated with water utility production
management system are:
Planning
Design and Maintenance
Construction
Operational Customer
Control Services
As Is To Be TO-BE
Plan Assess
Model Model Utility
Company
Level 5 Management
Factory
Management
Level 4
Process
Level 3 Management
Process
Level 2 Supervision
Process
Control
Level 1
Sensors / Actuators
Level 0
Figure 1.3 : CIME pyramid
Level 0 - Sensors/Actuators
Contains the whole of the sensors and actuators. It is the one closet
to the process, the function of this level enables the development of the
process to be followed and guided. At this level, process information is
taken up toward level 1. Typically, we will find at this level motors,
pressure sensors, and meters…
Water is linked to life and human activities from many angles and
using drinking water has become a commonplace for each of us (Brunel
University, 1997). Water flows as soon as we open the tap, as naturally as
if it is spurting from a spring and we are far from thinking that the
managers of water production and distribution services must devote
sustained efforts to maintaining such a permanence and quality of service.
Water is taken from surface resources or from underground resources. Then
water is purified in treatment works by physical and chemical processes.
The clean water is then pumped into a supply network of pipes. It may be
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 14
A. Treatment works
The pipe system has relatively spare measurement and control and,
typically, only key flows and pressures are monitored.
As-Is System
(Non Optimized) SCADA
Demand Predictor
Calibration Tools
Modeling Tools
To-Be System
(Optimized)
CHAPTER 2
2. Thesis Problematic and Objectives
The Engineering Division uses usually the “house” tools IRMA and
RAMI. This last allows the optimized dimensioning of the system of
branching pipes. IRMA allows modeling all types of networks whose
pipe’s diameters are known to check the pressures at the service points or
the compensation of the demand by the tanks. IRMA and RAMI are
dependent, RAMI is requested by IRMA to dimension the pipes whose
diameters are to be defined. The large majority of the networks at SCP are
today available under IRMA format files (*.irm).
About PICCOLO software, in spite of the fact that it is available in
SCP, it seems that PICCOLO was never used in SCP to realize hydraulic
simulation studies on any of its networks. PICCOLO was only used during
two projects abroad that carried out on networks that are not operated by
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 20
- Main structures including the main canal and four branches that
drive the water since Verdon River towards La Provence and the
coastal zone. Flow of water is driven by gravity and the discharges
decrease from 40 to 10 m3 /s.
- Secondary installations (or pressurized distribution networks) that
include 580 km of pipes between 500 and 1,300 mm in diameter, and
420 km secondary pipes of diameter lower than 500 mm.
In harmony with its philosophy, the strategy of SCP, its project, its
quality assurance approach and its system of environmental management,
aim to reconcile satisfaction of the customer, respect for the environment
and to assure a strict financial balance. Expertise acquired by SCP has
allowed it to promote engineering products adapted to the necessities of the
public or private specialists of planning and management. Not less than
thirty disciplines are represented at SCP: from hydraulics to landscaped
architecture, from electronics to agronomy, from civil engineering to
microbiology, from geology to land expertise.
On the occasion of its researches and its achievements, SCP
established a wide network of French and foreign partners: research or
financial organisms, specialized research departments, and big companies.
SCP intervened mainly in several countries: Albania, Algeria, Saudi
Arabia, Bolivia, Cameroon, China, Egypt, the United States, Greece, India,
Iraq, Morocco, Oman, Tunisia, Jordan, etc.
From its creation, SCP dedicated huge efforts in the development
researches, particularly in the methods of calculation and operation of
hydraulic works and facilities. It led, in the 60s, in major innovations, today
adopted all over the world. It is notably about the “Dynamic Regulation”
system of Canal de Provence, and optimization methods of the pressurized
irrigation networks. The activities of research and development concern
today all the domains of competence and intervention of SCP. In most of
cases, researches are realized in association with specialized partners;
universities and schools, public researches centers, other regional
management companies and societies, big public and private companies,
research departments. This thesis comes within the framework of the
research programs of SCP.
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 24
Point G Point T
Z=17.0 m Z=75.0 m
Golf Hôtel
(800 mm). An automatic filter extends the basin and retains the suspended
particles greater than 2 mm. This work is connected to the main pipeline by
a penstock (1,250 mm). The whole of this dissipator is bypassed by 1,250-
mm pipe at the beginning and then 600-mm pipe on which is mounted a
pressure regulator. The theoretical maximum flow available at the end of
the gallery is 10 m3/s at altitude of 295 m above mean see level (French:
Nivellement Général de la France, NGF). However the dissipator actual
flow is about 3.5 m3/s (maximum). The highest water level of the basin is
295 m NGF, and the lowest water level is 293 m NGF.
Divisor
Dissipator
By-Pass
The “Toulon Est” system is structured around the main pipeline “Les
Laures – La Môle”. This feeder, approximately 43 km in length, can be
divided into two sections (Figure 2.2):
d) Trapan dam
In practice the dam useful volume is less than 2 Mm3 because of the
deposits at the bottom of the dam and the water quality problems. However
the operator points out that in case of emergency water supply, the low
water level to be considered is 45 m (1.8 Mm3 useful volume). The existing
management of the dam is very simple; the only operating constraint is to
start the peak demand season with a full reserve, to limit the water quality
problems related to the temperature as mentioned above. For that the filling
of Trapan starts in February and spreads out until May.
The dam feeding setup from the main pipeline consists of a
dissipator equipped with a shut-off floating diaphragm. The exit of the
dissipator is double and makes it possible to supply either the dam from the
bottom, or directly supplying the CEO in case of accidental pollution or
insufficient water quality of Trapan. The maximum theoretical flow of this
work is of 600 l/s.
CHAPTER 3
3. Water Distribution Network System
Hydraulics and Modeling
Untreated water (also called raw water) may come from groundwater
sources or surface waters such as lakes, reservoirs, and rivers. The raw
water is usually transported to a water treatment plant, where it is processed
to produce treated water (also known as potable or finished water). The
degree to which the raw water is processed to achieve potability depends
on the characteristics of the raw water, relevant drinking water standards,
treatment processes used, and the characteristics of the distribution system.
In the case of groundwater, many sources offer up consistently high quality
water that could be consumed without disinfection.
downstream from the break will have their water service interrupted until
the repairs are finished. Another advantage of a looped configuration is
that, because there is more than one path for water to reach the user, the
velocities will be lower, and system capacity greater.
Most water supply systems are a complex combination of loops and
branches, with a trade-off between loops for reliability (redundancy) and
branches for infrastructure cost savings (Walski, 2004).
on maps of the system or as tabular output. A model’s value stems from the
usefulness of these abstractions in facilitating efficient design of system
improvements or better operation of an existing system.
Before building a model, it is necessary to gather information
describing the network. Many potential sources are available for obtaining
the data required to generate a water distribution model, and the availability
of these sources varies dramatically from utility to utility. Some of the most
commonly used resources, including system maps, as-built drawings, and
electronic data files. There are three types of data essential for assembling a
water distribution model as outlined in Table 3.2 , Table 3.3 and Table 3.4.
These are network data, water demand data, and operational data.
The most fundamental data requirement is to have an accurate
representation of the network topology, which details what the elements are
and how they are interconnected. If a model does not faithfully duplicate
real-world layout (for example, the model pipe connects two nodes that are
not really connected), then the model will never accurately describe real-
world performance, regardless of the quality of the remaining data
(Pilipovic, 2004).
Because models may contain tens of thousands of elements, naming
conventions are an important consideration in making the relationship
between real-world components and model elements as obvious as
possible. Naming conventions should mirror the way the modeler thinks
about the particular network by using a mixture of prefixes, suffixes,
numbers, and descriptive text.
The following should be noted in the management of the modeling
process (Cesario, 1995):
The key decision which must be made at the very start of the
process is whether or not to use the hydraulic network modeling
software as the right tool for providing answers to problems
faced in managing water distribution systems.
If a hydraulic network model is the right tool, running the water
distribution-modeling project is an ongoing activity, which needs
regular model updating and checking if the existing model is still
an adequate tool for providing answers to actual requirements.
The process of the management of the modeling process
inherently has many loops and feedbacks from previous steps.
One of the key characteristics of the process is that these
feedbacks make the modeling work an iterative process; not
linear as it was traditionally presented.
The modeling process should be considered as a process closely
linked to other corporate systems, not as an isolated activity. The
model’s output provides input and support to many strategic
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 42
Valves and Initial Node, end node GIS, Control valve database
control Diameter, Length, As-built plans
equipment Roughness coefficients
Type – Throttled, NRV, PRV, PSV, PCV, TCV, FCV.
Pumping Initial node end node GIS
stations Diameter of suction and delivery pipe Pump station database
Number or pump, name, pump type As-built plans
Pump delivery rate, delivery head, power
Rotating speed, number of stage, efficiency
Pump characteristic “Q – H – P curve”, protections
Type – Fixed or variable speed pumps
Stores excess water within the system and releases that water at
Tank Node
times of high usage
Junction Node Removes (demand) or adds (inflow) water from/to the system
Control Valve Node or link Controls flow or pressure in the system based on specified criteria
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 44
Even though the required data have been collected and entered into a
hydraulic simulation software package, the modeler cannot assume that the
model is an accurate mathematical representation of the system (Ormsbee,
1997). The hydraulic simulation software simply solves the equations of
continuity and energy using the supplied data; thus, the quality of the data
will dictate the quality of the results. The accuracy of a hydraulic model
depends on how well it has been calibrated, so a calibration analysis should
always be performed before a model is used for decision-making purposes.
The calibration process will be discussed in details in Chapter 7.
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 46
The security of water systems has long been a concern in the water
industry. The potential for natural, accidental, and purposeful
contamination or other events that would hinder the ability of the system to
provide a safe water supply has been the subject of many studies (Walski,
2003). Because water systems are spatially diverse (see Figure 3.3), they
are inherently vulnerable to a variety of activities that can compromise the
system’s ability to reliably deliver sufficient water at an acceptable level of
quality. There are several areas of vulnerability as water travels to the
customer. These areas include (1) the raw water source (surface or
groundwater); (2) raw water canals and pipelines; (3) raw water reservoirs;
(4) the treatment facilities; (5) connections to the distribution system pipes;
(6) pump stations and valves; and (7) finished water tanks and reservoirs.
Each of these system elements presents unique challenges to the water
utility in safeguarding the water supply. These challenges include:
CHAPTER 4
4. Pressurized Water Network Modeling
and Simulation Softwares
4.1 Introduction
Knowledge: It is indeed necessary that I declare here that the first study is
SCP property realized in November 2003 by Frank BESSEAT from
Engineering Division-SCP, the second one is prepared by CH2M HILL-
USA in 1999, and the third one is a property of De Montfort University,
UK -Water Software Systems (WSS) – realized in August 2000.
For the DMU, this market study came about due to the forthcoming
release of FINESSE Water Network Modeling Suite. The fundamental aim
of this market study was to help WSS in providing input for the
development a business and marketing plan for FINESSE. This research
hopefully helps determine factors such as:
• FINESSE’s strengths
• FINESSE’s limitations
• Marketing strategy
• Pricing strategy
• Distribution methods
• Support and training
Before moving into the main body of market study the first task was
to learn the basic concepts of water network modeling and simulation and
also the fundamentals of the FINESSE package. This was necessary to get
an understanding of the relevant information needed for the comparison of
the other modeling tools. The studies consisted of one main task along with
three associated subtasks.
The main task of the study was to identify products on the market.
The main parameters used to select the products were:
¾ Subtasks
The first stage of the market studies was to identify the other
packages on the market. Using initial information from SCP - mainly from
a market study supplied in 1997 to analyze the Water Colombo Network in
Sri Lanka and secondly from the research supplied in the field of
WaterCIME RDT project (WATERCIME, 1997), from De Monfort
University (DMU, 2000) and from CH2M HILL “Water Distribution
Hydraulic Model Selection” research, and also internet advanced research;
a preliminary list of water network distribution modeling packages was
drawn up. This initial list included:
AQUIS LIQSS
EPAnet NETBASE
FINESSE PICCOLO
GAnet StruMap
H2Onet SynerGEE Water
InfoWorks WaterCAD
IRMA
KYPIPE
After some initial research it appeared that some of the names in the
initial list were not as prevalent in the current modeling tool market as first
expected. So then using primarily the Internet, more up-to-date modeling
packages were identified. A final list was then trimmed down to six
products for the purposes of the comparison.
This final list of products included a wide mixture of modeling tool
types and origins. From high-end American products such as WaterCAD,
H2Onet and SynerGEE, to new European products such as AQUIS and
InfoWorks and more established names such as PICCOLO.
PORTEAU is water network simulation software developed by
CEMAGREF (Bordeaux-France, 2002), that was not included in the
mentioned market studies and I will introduce it in this chapter.
The following sources have provided the main basis for gathering
information:
AQUIS
A new modular based hydraulic simulation package with a very
strong focus on its ability to work in real-time and on-line. AQUIS has
been developed by the Danish Company Seven Technologies and is based
around the technology of two established platforms — LICwater and
WATNET.
>> (http://www.7t.dk/aquis).
H2Onet
An AutoCAD based package consisting of a very comprehensive
suite of tools. It has a strong emphasis on speed, ease of use, and also a
firm focus on network design and rehabilitation offering modules such as
Network designer and Advisor.
>> (http://www.mpact.com/page/p_product/net/net_overview.htm)
InfoWorks
InfoWorks is Wallingford Software’s Windows based successor to
Wesnet. But, notably InfoWorks hydraulic and quality simulation is still
heavily based around the WesNet simulation engine.
>> (http://www.wallingfordsoftware.com/products/infoworks/)
PICCOLO
An established name in the water network market, offering one the
largest choice of optional modules of any of the products in the
comparison, including water quality, costing, pipe sizing, transient analysis
and more. SAFÉGE make strong emphasis about PICCOLO’s Real-time
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 55
operation, its powerful user interface and its strong performance claiming
“PICCOLO uses the most efficient method available for resolving
problems in meshed networks”.
>>(http://www.safege.fr/wwwsafegefr/english/dom/logiciel/reseaux/
piccolo/atouts.htm)
SynerGEE Water
SynerGEE Water is Stoner’s successor to their original Stoner
Workstation Services. SynerGEE Water is based around the base
SynerGEE product developed for gas and electric and of course water.
Stoner makes the bold claim that “SynerGEE is the most advanced family
of network modeling and management application modules commercially
available”. Offered in modular format, SynerGEE has modules to allow
linking to Customer Information Systems, SCADA linking, main isolation
and model simplification.
>> (http://www.advantica.biz)
WaterCAD
Another high-end American developed software package that can be
used in conjunction with AutoCAD or bought as a standalone windows
program. Strong focus on ability to link to virtually any type of external
sources e.g. any database, spreadsheet, GIS, SCADA, etc. Also stresses on
ease of use and extensive data manipulation features.
>> (http://www.haestad.com/software/watercad/)
PORTEAU
To improve the distribution of drinking water the CEMAGREF
(Agricultural and Environmental Engineering Research Institute–
Bordeaux– France) developed a software called PORTEAU, which allows
to estimate the reliability of the drinking water distribution system and the
respect of the water quality standards. PORTEAU software also allows to
estimate the water pressure, its stagnation duration in the network, the
origins of this water or the disinfectants evolution in the network, such as
chlorine.
PORTEAU thus constitutes modeling tools for the steady state
behavior of pressurized meshed water supply and distribution networks. It
represents a decision-making aid for the management of water supply or
distribution networks (CEMAGREF, 2002).
Several modules of calculation are available; each one allows the
simulation of a particular use of the network. At present, the modules of
calculation associated with this graphical environment are:
Several important names were also not in the comparison. Here is the
explanation for few key-missing products. FINESSE and GAnet were
omitted from the comparison list, as they are university research based
products. Only commercial products were compared in the SCP and CH2M
HILL market study reports. But GANet and FINESSE are mentioned in
this report and summarized in this chapter as a showcase of the current
research way. KYPIPE, LIQSS and NETBASE are standalone product used
mainly by Consulting and Services companies for designing, simulating or
modeling small networks quickly and efficiently. Other missing product
that is well used by utilities is StruMap. It’s omitted from the final
comparison list because of a not clear commercial and support policy from
MVM Consultants Company.
GAcal
Optimal Solutions has produced a package called GAcal, which links
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 57
FINESSE
FINESSE is a well known product from SCP. FINESSE was
developed by Water Software Systems WSS – UK.
>> (http://www.eng.dmu.ac.uk/wssys/Software.htm)
StruMap Modeling
StruMap Modeling is Geodesys’s hydraulic modeling version of its
StruMap GIS package, using an EPANET based simulation engine
integrated with the GIS. StruMap Modeling offers a surprisingly
comprehensive range of modeling features including water quality, leakage
assessment, etc.
Geodesys firstly developed StruMap. Now the product is sold by
MVM Consultants plc. But, according to the web site, it seems that the
product is maintained but will probably not be developed more. Hence
StruMap was omitted from the comparison.
>> (www.geodesys.co.uk)
EPANET
One of the key names - EPANET was omitted from the comparison,
as it is a freeware product. EPANET is US Environmental Protection
Agency software well known by their hydraulic community. As a freeware,
there is no formal support or services offered for EPANET. It’s important
to notice that most of the products selected in this report are based on the
EPANET Engine.
>> (http://www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/wswrd/epanet.html)
NETBASE
Crowder and Co Ltd is an established firm of consulting engineers
and software developers, founded in 1985 – UK. The company offers
flexible and competitive services to developers, contractors, architects,
water utilities, local authorities and property services companies. Crowder
and Co developed NETBASE as an integrated management system for
water distribution and wastewater drainage networks. It provides the tools
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 58
KYPIPE
KYPIPE is a USA product sold by LLC Software Center in
Lexington, KY. KYPIPE offers a lot functionalities found in product
compared in this reports. There is also a SCADA interface providing some
very advanced capabilities for reviewing and modifying settings, which
affect the operation of the system, and launching an analysis using these
settings. The current version of KYPIPE is the 2000 version. LLC software
develops also Gas2000, Surge2000, Steam2000 and Goflow2000.
KYPIPE LCC and MWH software have a string partnership. Here is
a quote from LLC websites describing this partnership: “Whereas
Surge2000 and H2O SURGE provide identical analysis capabilities (they
actually utilize the same binaries) these programs are targeted at different
users. The programs are offered at a different price point, have different
support arrangements, and have different operational requirements.
Partnering with MWH Soft allows KYPIPE LLC to bring our software to a
market segment that we would not ordinarily reach”.
>> (http://www.kypipe.com)
LIQSS
A mention has to be made about LIQSS software which is one of the
four non-graphical steady-state and transient network analysis simulators
developed by Dr. Michael A. Stoner who launched Stoner Associates in
seventies. A lot of LIQSS licences still exist all around the world. But, now
the SynerGEE water product from Advantica will be the only one
commercialize.
IRMA-RAMI
“House” software developed by SCP-France. This program includes
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 59
Water Supply
Environment
Public Utilities Management
Regional Development
4.3.6 Criteria
This following section explains the seven criteria and their respective
sub-criteria in more detail.
Note: Some questions have a simple Yes/No answer, whilst others required
a descriptive input. This applies throughout the entire criteria.
A.1 Product summary: A brief description about what the product is and
how it is aimed at the market.
A.2. Platform: The operating system(s) which product is designed to run
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 62
B. Hydraulic simulation
C.1 Offered: Indicates if product offers water quality simulation in the first
place, and whether it is an optional module or standard.
C.2 Simulation engine: The background simulation process being used to
simulate water quality models for example EPANET (Typically the same
engine as for hydraulic simulation).
C.3 Steady state simulation: Indicates if the product can perform steady
state (instantaneous) water quality simulation.
C.4 Extended period simulation: Indicates if the product can perform
dynamic water quality simulation
C.5 Conservative substance propagation: States if the water quality
simulation can analyze the movement of conservative substances such as
Nitrates, Phosphates or Fluoride through the network.
C.6 Reactive substance propagation: States if the water quality
simulation can analyze the movement of reactive substances such as
Chlorine, through the network.
C.7 Water age calculation: Indicates if the water quality simulation can
calculate the age of water
C.8 Source tracing: Indicates the ability to identify origins of water in the
system.
C.9 Sediment analysis: States if the water quality simulation can analyze
the movement of sediment material through network.
C.10 Bacterial analysis: Indicates the ability to analyze and track of the
growth of bacteria in the system.
C.11 Substance conversion analysis: Indicates if the water quality
simulation allows for the conversion of substances from one state to
another.
Criteria summary: This criterion is the one of the largest of the set.
It highlights the additional analysis features and applications offered by the
software on top of the standard hydraulic (and quality) simulation. This
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 64
Although seven out of the eight tools in the comparison claim to link
to SCADA systems a clear distinction needs to be made between a products
ability to link with SCADA systems in either on-line and real-time modes.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 67
• On-line linking
On-line linking refers to the product’s ability to capture historical
recorded data from SCADA that has been collected over a certain period of
time e.g. 24 hours or a week. The presumption can be made that any tool
that has SCADA linking can perform on-line collection of data as standard
as this is the basic function necessary of a SCADA connection.
• Real-time linking
(scrolling).
G.9 Multiple windows: Indicates if the product offers the feature of
multiple window displays.
¾ Choice of competitors
A question may be raised about the choice of competitors as several
of them are aimed at the top end of the market. Although the choice of
products may not be ideal, now that the criteria list has been created it
would be quite straightforward to add other products to the list.
¾ Marketing focus
Some of the information sources provided by the companies was
quite marketing orientated, focusing on the benefits rather than actual
details of operation. For example product X “can help to reduce this”, or
“can help to improve that”, etc. It appears that marketing aimed at higher
level, not engineers who use software. The only true exception was
SAFÉGE who made the effort to provide more technically orientated
information such maximum network size and speed of calculation
exception.
¾ US products
The two main American based softwares – H2Onet and WaterCAD
appear to offer very comprehensive functionality.
In Table 4.1 some of the softwares mentioned here above and their main
features are summarized:
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 69
WaterCAD
SynerGEE
Infoworks
FINESSE
Porteau
H2Onet
EPAnet
AQUIS
Piccolo
Software
Platform Windows Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Platform Unix N N N N N N N Y N
Water Quality Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y
3rd Party Software N Y N N N Y Y N N
Steady State Simulation Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Extended Period Simulation (EPS) Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Offline Analysis Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Online Analysis Y ? Y Y Y ? Y N N
Large Size Network Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Model Calibration Y Y Y Y N Y N N N
Scheduling (Optimization Y Y N Y N N Y N N
Demand Prediction Y N N N N N Y N N
Model Simplification Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N
Leakage Analysis Y N N N N N N N N
Transient/Surge Analysis Y N N Y N N N N N
Pipe Sizing Analysis Y N N Y N N N N N
SCADA linking Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N
Network design optimisation N Y N N N N N N N
Finally, the interested reader can refer to the original market studies
for further information and details.
PICCOLO
We had said that this software was never used in SCP to realize
hydraulic simulation studies on any of its networks. For more details about
this software and its tools and functionalities please refer to the market
Studies presented in this chapter.
FINESSE
Developed by De Montfort University-UK. This software is the
modeling tools that will be used in this research work and it will be
describe in details in the next section.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 70
IRMA- RAMI
“House” softwares developed by SCP-France. A brief description of
this software is presented in the paragraphs hereafter.
This program, property of the SCP, was the object of numerous
evolutions in the course of years to answer the new necessities of the
different users as well designers as administrators of networks. This
software simulates the behavior of pressurized supply networks. It
calculates head at nodes and flows in pipes based on a description of the
network geometry, pipes, equipment and water demands.
This software is well adapted to study irrigation and distribution
networks, or more or less complex networks grouping several uses of water
(irrigation, industrial, drinking water, etc.). It can be used for design (sizing
of pipe diameters, tanks and other equipment) or for operation management
and diagnosis of existing networks (minimum pressures, infrastructure
capacities, saturation level, possible additional flows at specific points).
This program is written in FORTRAN and uses the SCP graphic library. In
the general case, the flows circulating in sections are calculated by
Clément’s law.
Besides, the program includes some number of additional features
developed for the proper necessities of the SCP. There are different
“bridges” between IRMA and the tools that constitute its immediate
environment in the SCP. An automatism of call of RAMI program of
optimal sizing of new branched connected with a general infrastructure.
This function allows calculating directly the diameters of new branches. It
is enough to describe the new branch(s) in the database file without
clarifying the diameters. The calculations of optimization will be launched
automatically and the database file updated with the diameters resulting
from calculations of RAMI.
In the other direction, an interface between RAMI program
(calculation of branched networks) and the IRMA program which allows
using the data of RAMI’s files for the modeling of SCP networks
containing loops. Also, a “bridges” were established between IRMA and
the SCP network database to create and to update models of IRMA from
valid data stored in the database. An interface is also available to create
data files for FINESSE software (Bonnadier, 2000).
Modeling Database
a) Network simulation
This provides steady state hydraulic simulation, and extended-period
simulation (e.g. over a 24 hours horizon). It calculates time-profiles of
flows, velocities, headloss, pressures and heads, reservoir levels, reservoir
inflows and outflows and operating costs. The input data include network
topology and component parameters, water demands and control variables.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 72
c) Network scheduling
Pumps, valves and water works outputs are scheduled to minimize
the total water production and distribution costs, typically over a time
horizon of one or more days. The schedules conform to practical operating
requirements defined by constraints on variables such as pressures,
reservoir levels, flows, etc.
Non-linear hydraulic models are used to calculate least cost
schedules, even for large networks. Such models are accurate over wide
ranges of operating conditions, which is particularly important in the
analysis of operating constraints. The scheduler can use network simulation
models directly. The FINESSE Pump Scheduler will later be presented in
detail in Chapter 9 of this thesis.
d) Demand prediction
Water demand patterns and volumes are predicted from historical
flow time series. Typically, 6 weeks of historical data are required to setup
the prediction model, which is based on categorization of demand patterns
and a triple exponential smoothing algorithm. Thereafter, the software
predicts future patterns of demand (e.g. for 1 to 7 days at 15 minute
intervals) from recently acquired time series. FINESSE can be configured
to acquire data on-line for a number of zones and then predict demands
patterns for each of them. Alternatively, it can be used to analyze historical
flow time series off-line. The prediction software was first used in the
1980s, and has been applied successfully to a number of networks. WSS
has also applied a number of other methods to water demand and leakage
prediction, including Box Jenkins methods and artificial neural networks.
FINESSE Demand Prediction will later be presented in detail in Chapter 8
of this thesis.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 73
e) Model simplification
The model simplifier automatically calculates simplified models
directly from detailed ones. The simplified models contain all key
components and critical pressure nodes chosen by the user. The results are
typically accurate to within 2% of the original models for comparable
quantities. Simplified models can be used directly in either simulation or
optimization and they can be recalculated from the detailed models at any
time and for any given reason, such as if there are any changes to the
network. The simplifier is based on a Gaussian elimination procedure.
f) Pressure control
This is a tool to calculate optimal pressure profiles directly from
simulation models of a network. The profiles are calculated to minimize
leakage whilst maintaining specified head constraints at each node of the
network. The pressure control module can be applied to large pressure
management areas of any configuration.
- Model data: model data are stored in a single database and are
shared seamlessly between the modeling functions. Models can be built and
edited interactively using FINESSE model building features. The network
schematic is created by “drag and drop” from a palette of standard model
components.
It was felt that the biggest differences between FINESSE and the
other softwares lied in these following areas:
CHAPTER 5
5. Methods for Solving Water Pipe
Networks Problem
5.1 Introduction
Control Schedules
Output
Water Network Pressures
Demand Flows
Mathematical
Costs
Model
Initial Conditions
dh r
= − S − 1 (hr ) q r (t ) Reservoir equation (Eq. 5.1)
dt
⎡Δh f ⎤
ΓΔ h = ⎢ ⎥ Energy balance equation (Eq. 5.4)
⎣0 ⎦
Where:
hr = vector of reservoir heads (m)
S (hr ) = area of the reservoir at hr level (m2)
qr = vector of net reservoir outflow (m3/s)
Δh = component headloss vector (m)
q = branch (component) flow vector (m3/s)
d = demand flow vector (m3/s)
R = component resistance matrix (sn/m3n-1):
⎡ r1 0 ... 0 ⎤
⎢0 r2 ... ... ⎥
R = ⎢ ⎥ ( Eq . 5 .5 )
⎢ ... 0 ... 0 ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣0 ... 0 rb ⎦
⎡Λ f ⎤
Λ = ⎢ ⎥ = n x b node-branch incidence matrix
⎣Λ c ⎦
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 81
This incidence matrix has a row for every node and a column for
every branch (component) of the network. Two nonzero entries for each
column +1 and -1 indicate the beginning and end of the branch
respectively.
h = hr[ T
hc
T
]
T
( Eq . 5 .6 )
Δ h = Rq n
(Eq. 5.7)
Where:
R = pipe’s resistance, depends on pipe diameter and length, and how
rough the pipe inner surface:
10 . 7 L
-For Hazen-Williams Formula : R = ( Eq . 5 .8 a )
C 1 . 852 D 4 .87
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 82
8 fL
-For Darcy-Weisbach Formula : R = ( Eq . 5 .8 b )
gπ 2D 5
10 . 33 m 2 L
-For Chezy-Manning Formula : R = ( Eq . 5 .8 c )
D 5 .33
Where:
q = flow rate (m3/s)
D = pipe diameter (m)
L = pipe length (m)
C = Hazen-Williams C-Factor (dimensionless)
f = Darcy-Weisbach friction factor (dependent on pipe
roughness, diameter, and flow rate, and its dimensionless)
m = Manning roughness coefficient
n = 1.852 for Hazen-William and 2.0 for Darcy-Weisbach and
2.0 for Chezy-Manning
1 ⎛ ε 2 . 51 ⎞
= − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟ ( Eq . 5 .9 a )
f ⎜ 3 . 7 D Re f ⎟
⎝ ⎠
1 ⎛ 2ε 18 . 7 ⎞
= 1 . 74 − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟ ( Eq . 5 .9 b )
f ⎜ D Re f ⎟
⎝ ⎠
⎛ ⎞
⎜ ⎟
1 ⎛D⎞ 9 . 3
= 1 .14 + 2 Log ⎜ ⎟ − 2 log ⎜ 1 + ⎟ ( Eq . 5.9c )
f ⎝ε ⎠ ⎜ ⎛D⎞ ⎟
⎜ Re ⎜ ⎟ f ⎟
⎝ ⎝ε ⎠ ⎠
Where:
f = friction factor (dimensionless)
ε = absolute pipe roughness (mm)
D = inner diameter (mm)
* Note:- (ε /D) is the relative roughness and is dimensionless.
⎡ ( B − A)
2
⎤ ⎫ −2
f = ⎢A − ⎥ ⎪
⎣ (C − 2 B + A ) ⎦ ⎪
⎪
⎛ ε 12 ⎞ ⎪
A = − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟
⎪
⎝ 3 .7 D Re ⎠
⎬ (Eq . 5 . 11 a )
⎛ ε 2 . 51 A ⎞ ⎪
B = − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟
⎝ 3 .7 D Re ⎠ ⎪⎪
⎛ ε 2 . 51 B ⎞ ⎪
C = − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟⎪
⎝ 3 .7 D Re ⎠ ⎭
2. Moody equation (4,000 < Re < 107 and ε/D < 0.01)
⎛ ⎛ ε 106 13⎞
⎞ ⎟
f = 5.5 ×10−3 ⎜1 + ⎜⎜ 2 ×104 + ⎟⎟ (Eq. 5.11b)
⎜ ⎝ D Re ⎠ ⎟
⎝ ⎠
⎛ε ⎞
0.225
⎛ε ⎞ ⎛ε ⎞
0.44
⎫
f = 0.094⎜ ⎟ + 0.53⎜ ⎟ + 88⎜ ⎟ a
Re ⎪
⎝ D⎠ ⎝D⎠ ⎝D⎠ ⎪
0.134 ⎬ ( Eq. 5.11c)
⎛ε ⎞ ⎪
a = − 1.62⎜ ⎟ ⎪
⎝D⎠ ⎭
4. Jain Equation (for 5,000 < Re < 107 and 0.0000 4 < ε/D < 0.05)
1 ⎛ε 21 . 25 ⎞
= 1 . 14 − 2 . 0 Log ⎜ + ⎟ ( Eq . 5 . 11 d )
f ⎝D Re 0 .9 ⎠
5. Swamee and Jain Equation (for Re > 4,000 and ε/D < 0.02)
0 . 25
f = 2
( Eq . 5 . 11 e )
⎡ ⎛ ε 5 . 74 ⎞⎤
⎢ Log ⎜ + 0 .9 ⎟⎥
⎣ ⎝ 3 . 7 D Re ⎠⎦
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 85
⎛ ⎛ 8 ⎞ 0 .5 ⎞
1
12 ⎫
1 ⎪
f = 8⎜ ⎜ ⎟ + ⎟
⎜ ⎝ Re ⎠
⎝ ( A + B )1 .5 ⎟
⎠
⎪
⎪
⎛ ⎛ 7 ⎞ 0 .9
16
⎪
0 . 27 ε ⎞⎟ ⎪
A = − 2 . 457 Ln ⎜ ⎜ +
⎜ ⎝ Re ⎟⎠ ⎬ ( Eq . 5 . 11 f )
⎝ D ⎟⎠ ⎪
16 ⎪
⎛ 37530 ⎞ ⎪
B =⎜ ⎟
⎝ Re ⎠ ⎪
⎪⎭
1 ⎛⎛ ε ⎞ 5.0452 A ⎞ ⎫
= −2.0 Log ⎜⎜ ⎜ ⎟− ⎟⎟ ⎪
f ⎝⎝ 3 . 7065 D ⎠ Re ⎠⎪
⎛ ⎛ ε ⎞1.10987 ⎞ ⎪⎪
⎜⎜ ⎟ ⎟ ⎬ ( Eq. 5.11g )
⎜⎝ D⎠ ⎛ 5.8506 ⎞ ⎟ ⎪
A = Log ⎜ + ⎜ 0.8981 ⎟ ⎟ ⎪
2.8257 ⎝ Re ⎠⎟
⎜ ⎪
⎜ ⎟ ⎪⎭
⎝ ⎠
8. Zigrang and Sylvester Equation (for 4,000 < Re < 108 and
0.00004 < ε/D < 0.05)
1 ⎛ ε 5.02 A ⎞ ⎫
= −2.0 Log ⎜ − ⎟ ⎪
f ⎝ 3.7 D Re ⎠ ⎪
⎬ ( Eq. 5.11h)
⎛ ε 5.02 ⎛⎛ ε 13 ⎞ ⎞ ⎞⎪
A = Log ⎜⎜ − Log ⎜⎜ ⎜ + ⎟ ⎟⎟ ⎟⎟
⎝ 3 . 7 D Re ⎝⎝ 3 . 7 D D ⎠ ⎠ ⎠⎪⎭
Where the program assumes an initial value for flows through a loop
and iteratively solves for the unknown corrective flow rate around each
loop. Obviously, there are fewer loops than with either pipes or junctions,
so the matrix created by the LFM formulation is smaller than with either of
the other methods:
⎡Δhf ⎤
ΓR qn (ql , q f ) = ⎢ ⎥ (Eq. 5.14)
⎣0 ⎦
The unknown variables are flows in fundamental loops ql and
pseudo-loops qf. The algorithm requires a complex procedure for finding
the loops.
The branch flows q, and nodal heads h, are the unknown variables.
shown that using the loop equations is a suitable framework for the
inclusion of pressure-controlling elements without specifying the
operational state of the network (Arsene, 2004).
Theorem 1 (Existence theorem): “The static model (Eq. 5.2, 5.3, and
5.4) of a network comprising reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps, has
one and only one solution for branch flows and nodal heads”.
o Proof: The proof is accomplished by identifying the
corresponding elements in water networks and electrical
networks and by checking that pipes, valves and pumps have
strictly monotonically increasing head/flow characteristics.
Theorem 2 (Index theorem): The DAE model of a water network
consisting of reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps, has an index equal
to 1.
o Proof: The proof is accomplished by investigating the Jacobian
of the algebraic part of the model, and by checking that the
Jacobian of (Eq. 5.2, 5.3, and 5.4) is a nonsingular matrix.
Theorem 3 (Stability theorem): The model of a water network
consisting of reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps is a stable system.
o Proof: The model is equivalent to an electrical network made of
non-linear monotonic resistors, independent sources and
capacitors and the latter model is stable.
Some water networks include pressure-controlling valves (PRVs and
PSVs). These valves have local control loops and cannot be represented by
two terminal models with monotonic characteristics. There are strong
indications that Theorems 1, 2, 3 are also valid for networks with pressure
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 89
controlling valves. The reasoning can be based on the fact that stabilization
of the downstream head is accomplished by modification of the
conductance (minor losses) of the valve. The changes in the state of the
valve from closed to active and then open are obtained by a continuous
change in conductance starting from zero to some maximum value that
corresponds to the valve being fully open.
A- The sum of pipe flows into and out of a node equals the flow
entering or leaving the system through the node.
B- Hydraulic head (i.e. elevation head + pressure head) is single-
valued. This means that the hydraulic head at a node is the same
whether it is computed from upstream or downstream directions.
∑ h fi
Δq = ± i=1
(Eq. 5.16)
⎡ N h ⎤
⎢n ∑ qi
fi
⎥
⎣ i=1 ⎦
Where:
∆q = loop flow adjustment (m3/s)
N = number of pipes in the loop
q = pipe flow rate (m3/s)
hfi = headloss in pipe I (m)
n = 1.852 for Hazen-William and 2.0 for Darcy-Weisbach
The pipe flow is adjusted until the change in flow in each pipe is less
than the convergence criteria.
Euler integration assumes that the rates computed at a given time are
constant through the time interval (timestep). This method is easy to
understand, and easy to implement; however it is not accurate enough for
integrating over any reasonably long time intervals. It is accurate enough to
use in short time integrations though. The error made in using Euler
integration is proportional to the square of timestep on an integration step
and proportional to timestep over the whole simulation. To make the
integration more accurate, one can decrease timestep.
- Switches: Time switch, Head switch, High head switch with time
delay, Low head switch with time delay, Time switch with high head
switch, Time switch with low head switch.
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 94
CHAPTER 6
6. Role of SCADA System for Real Time
Hydraulic Simulation
communication link with the RTU to allow the control command to be sent
to the field data interface device under control. SCADA systems usually
employ several layers of checking mechanisms to ensure that the
transmitted command is received by the intended target.
Data received from SCADA systems fall into one of the following
categories:
is done either:
• Private cables
• Rented specialized connections
• Public telephone network
• GSM network
• Radio links
Host Computers
RT front-end
Support of RT
RT RT RT
RS
Equipments Equipments
AUTOMATONS
REGULATOR
TM
RC
Actuator
On-Off Switch
Gate Pump
Sensors
c) Volume measurements
>> Valid if the station sends back a value which falls within the
defined measuring range corresponding to the interrogated sensor.
Acquisition of measurements
Non-verified Test
Each one of these data has its own address to which it is saved in the
database of the supervisor. According to the data storage system of the
CGTC, this address is made up of five sub-addresses separated by “points”,
for example: TM.07.03.03.00, and PM.03.01.01.02, where:
( Database )
Water Level Sensor Address Word N°1
( Size = 2 bits ) TM.02.01.03.02
Address Word N°2 Front-end N°1 TM.03.01.02.02
CGTC TM.01.01.01.02
Station N°1
Front-end N°2 TM.04.01.02.01
Res_X Address Word N°3
Station N°2
Front-end N°3 Alpha Server
Address Word N°4
Station N°3
Front-end N°4
Station N°4
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 112
CHAPTER 7
7. Calibration of Pipe Network
Hydraulic Model
7.1 Introduction
The most common types of data are those for flow rate, tank water
level and pressure. Depending on the level of instrumentation and
telemetry, much of the data may already be collected as part of normal
operations. Data collection plays an important role in managing water
distribution systems. The main aim of the field data collection planning
exercise is to determine what, when, under what conditions, and where to
observe the behavior of the system and collect data that, when used for
calibration, will yield the best results. This is what is known as a sampling
design problem.
Depending on the flow conditions being simulated, the model will
have different reactions to different types of data changes. For most water
distribution systems, the Hydraulic Gradient Line (HGL) throughout the
system (also referred to as the piezometric surface) is fairly flat during
average-day demand conditions. The reason for these small headloss is that
most systems are designed to operate at an acceptable level of service
during maximum day demands while accommodating fire flows. As a
result, the pipe sizes are usually large enough that average-day headloss are
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 115
small. For this reason, calibration during average conditions does not
provide much information on roughness coefficients and water use.
Average conditions do, however, provide insights into boundary conditions
and node elevations. During periods when flows through the system are
high, such as peak hour flows, pipe roughness and demand values play a
much larger role in determining system-wide pressures. Therefore, pipe
roughness values, and to a lesser extent demands, should be adjusted during
periods of high flow to achieve model calibration.
¾ Direct method: This method is the simplest one and is used when the
pipe’s roughness is the only unknown parameter and the demands and
pressures are measured for all the nodes in the network (as it is the
case for “Toulon Est” network) and, hence, the pipe’s headloss and
flow are known for all the pipes. For each pipe, the pipe roughness is
computed directly from the headloss equation (Darcy-Weisbach
formula, Hazen-Williams formula, or Chezy-Manning formula) where
the unknown parameter is the pipe’s roughness.
2003).
The identification problem tries to determine parameters such as
roughness and demand coefficients, which are constant (they change in a
large period of time). Also it tries to determine the necessary meters that
have to be installed in order to have a good calibration but not to increase
the cost unnecessarily. When parameters are estimated, identifiability
substitutes observability concept. Problems associated with identifiability
can be overcome by grouping unknown parameters, for example, pipe
roughness coefficients for all pipes that share the same material, diameter,
age, and location, or by increasing the quantity of observed information
through additional field measurements. Grouping is based on the
assumption that pipes laid in roughly the same time period with the same
material will have the same roughness properties. Grouping greatly reduces
the identifiability problem, but it may introduce errors if the pipes and
nodes in a given group should not have the same adjustments applied.
As more measurements are available, namely outputs, the calibration
will be possible or easier and more robust. The variables not measured;
flows, heads, boundary flows, demands, demand factors and roughness
have to be treated as parameters to be determined and a large number of
such unmeasured parameters reduce the identifiability of the system.
As the parameters of the network (roughness and demand factors)
are constant in time they relate measurements taken in different timesteps.
That means that if the same measurements are taken more than once the
number of unknown variables increases but not as the number of equations
does. So a system that is not identifiable with just one timestep can become
identifiable if some timesteps are included. The interest of using more than
one timestep in the measurement makes necessary the generalization of the
identifiability conditions. The identifiability study should determine; which
are the variables that have to be measured, how many timesteps must be
taken into account, and which are the conditions in each timestep that make
all these measurements useful for the calibration.
Water network’s models are in general non-linear, only in special
cases where all heads or flows are measured it will become linear. The
approximation by Taylor series drives to the use of Jacobian to study the
identifiability of the network (Pérez, 2003).
The unknowns x1, x2,…, xn are nodal heads and pipe flows. System
(Eq. 7.1) can be solved using Newton-Raphson technique. The Jacobian
matrix of this system is:
⎡ ∂ f1 ∂ f1 ⎤
⎢ ... ... ⎥
∂x1 ∂x n
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ... ... ... ... ⎥
A = (Eq. 7.2)
⎢ ... ... ... ... ⎥
⎢ ∂fn ∂fn ⎥
⎢ ... ... ⎥
⎣ ∂x1 ∂x n ⎦
[ ]
N
Min f ( p) = ∑ wi x *
i − xi (p ) (Eq. 7.4)
i =1
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 123
Where:
f(p) = objective function to be minimized
p = vector of unknowns
N = number of observations
wi = weighting factors
x i* = observation (head, flow)
xi (p) = model predicted system variable (head, flow)
¾ Darcy-Weisbach formula
¾ Hazen-Williams formula
¾ Chezy-Manning formula
equation to compute headloss between the start and end node of the pipe:
8 fL
hf = × Q2 ( Eq . 7 .5 )
gπ D
2 5
Where:
hf = pipe headloss (m)
Q = pipe flow (m3/s)
D = pipe diameter (m)
L = pipe length (m)
f = Darcy-Weisbach friction factor
1. The Hagen–Poiseuille formula is used for laminar flow (Re < 2,000).
64
f = ( Eq . 7 .6 )
Re
4Q
Re = ( Eq . 7 .8 )
πD ν
N T
Minimize R (ε ) = ∑∑ Ps ( i , t ) − Pm ( i , t ) (Eq . 7 .9 )
i =1 t =1
Where:
R(ε ) = objective function to minimize (Residual).
ε = unknown variable (Roughness).
Pm = measured pressure.
Ps = simulated pressure.
N = number of nodes at which the pressures are measured.
T = length of the extended period.
The set of constraints associated with this problem are continuity and
headloss equations. The calibration module attempts to find the roughness
at which R(ε) is minimal, and we will call this value as ε optimal. The problem
is solved by iteration on ε such that for each value of ε the calibrator will
send this value to EPANET and the nodes pressures are evaluated. Then the
solution is passed back to the calibration module, where the objective
function R(ε) is evaluated. To initiate the calibration process we have to
define the minimum and maximum value of ε, and also the increment by
which the roughness will grow throughout the calibration process (εminimum,
εmaximum, and εincrement). When the objective function is evaluated for all
values of ε, the R(ε)minimal and thus ε optimal are determined and then the average
of the absolute differences between the simulated and measured pressures
( Δ P ), standard error (σ), and confidence interval (C.I.) are evaluated at
ε optimal. The calibration approach is shown in the schema of Figure 7.1.
Furthermore, this approach and module described here to calibrate “Toulon
Est” network can be used to calibrate pipe roughness for any network.
In this option we calibrate the pipes such that each pipe has its own
roughness ε and of course this is closer to the reality than assigning a
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 127
unique value for all the pipes. For this purpose, the same approach
described in the previous paragraph and in Figure 7.3 is applied. But in this
case the procedure is executed for each pipe instead of executing it only
once for all the pipes as in the first option. However, EPAXL Calibrator is
able to do this task automatically. In Option#1 the initial roughness is set to
ε i = ε minimum at the beginning of the iteration process, but in this option the
calibrator randomly generates and assigns roughness for each pipe within
the predefined constrains: ε minimum ≤ ε ≤ ε maximum, this could reduce the time
required to find a solution. Then the procedure in Figure 7.1 is repeated for
each pipe and at the end of the iteration new ε-values are obtained. For
each iteration, the new ε-values are compared to the ε-values obtained from
the previous iteration and if the ε-values do not change any more then the
process is terminated and an optimal solution is found.
EPAXL Calibrator approach will be applied to “Toulon Est” network
to calibrate its mainline roughness and for this purpose a simulation model
for the “Toulon Est” mainline was built in EPANET simulation software
and it will be introduced in the next section. On the 1st February 2006 the
SCP’s Maintenance Division has performed two field measurements test on
this network in order to estimate the evolution of the mainline roughness of
“Toulon Est”. The results of these field measurements tests will be
presented, and then the same field measurements will be provided to
EPAXL Calibrator to validate the approach presented here above and the
results of this calibration also will be presented, commented on and
compared with the SCP results.
Input
Extended period Extended period ε bounds:
EPANET ε minimum
demand flows measured pressures
Network Model ε maximum
(Q) (Hm)
ε increment
Calibration Module
Start
Set Roughness = ε i
for all pipes
No Check
ε i > ε maximum ?
Yes
Stop
Output
R( ε optimal )
(ε optimal , Δ P = , C.I. )
N×T
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 129
Les Laures
Q1
Fenouillet Golf_Hôtel
Pierrascas
Trapan
Mont Redon
Q3 Q5
Q6 Q7 Q9
P P P La Môle
A B C E F G H K T M Q10
P P P P P P
Q2 Q4 Q8
q1 q2
Legend:
q Non-Measured Q Water P Pressure
Node
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 130
0 . 25
f = 2
( Eq . 7 . 10 )
⎡ ⎛ ε 2 . 51 ⎞⎤
⎢ Log ⎜⎜ + ⎟⎟ ⎥
⎣ ⎝ 3 . 7 D Re ( f + 0 . 00001 )0 .5 ⎠⎦
Test#1_SCP
Test#2_SCP
P m - σ ≤ Pr ≤ P m + σ
Where:
Pm = measured pressure (m)
Pr = randomly generated pressure (m)
σ = standard error of the pressure device (m)
Test#1_EPAXL
Test#2_EPAXL
ε_EPAXL#2
Pipe C.I.
(mm)
ε_EPAXL
Pipe C.I.
(mm)
ε_EPAXL# 1
6
ε_EPAXL# 2
ε_EPAXL
5
Roughness (mm)
0
Pipe A-C Pipe C-E Pipe E-F Pipe F-G Pipe G-H Pipe H-K Pipe K-T
For both A and B the differences are plotted on Figure 7.4. One can
see that the differences between ε-values of Test#1_SCP and those of
Test#2_SCP are considerable and they lie between 4.7% and 37.3%. The ε-
values for Pipes: A-C, E-F, and G-H decreased, while for Pipes: C-E, F-G,
H-K, and K-T the ε-values increased. On the other hand, because the same
field measurements were used in EPAXL different ε-values were obtained
but the differences between ε-values of Test#1_EPAXL and those of
Test#2_EPAXL are less and they lie between 0.0% and 27.1%. The ε-
values for Pipes: A-C and G-H decreased, while for Pipes: C-E, E-F, F-G,
H-K, and K-T the ε-values increased.
20
Difference (% )
10
0
Pipe A-C Pipe C-E Pipe E-F Pipe F-G Pipe G-H Pipe H-K Pipe K-T
-10
-20
-30
-40
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 137
For both C and D the differences are plotted on Figure 7.5. One can
see that the ε-values of EPAXL and SCP are not the same and the
differences lie between 0.4% and 30.2% for Test#1, and between 0.3% and
8.1% for Test#2. Roughly speaking, the ε-values of EPAXL are less than
those of SCP.
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 138
15
D ifference (% )
-5 Pipe A-C Pipe C-E Pipe E-F Pipe F-G Pipe G-H Pipe H-K Pipe K-T
-15
-25
-35
Before passing judgment on EPAXL, let’s first consider the two field
measurements and the results obtained by the SCP’s Maintenance Division.
The two field measurements were made under controlled conditions and by
the same team and with the same measuring devices (flowmeters and
pressure sensors). According to the persons who carried out the tests, the
main source of errors during the test is due to the accuracies of the
measuring devices. The accuracies of the measuring devices are:
The devices can be considered accurate. Even though, each test gave
ε_values different from the other test as shown in (A) where the difference
was up to 40%.
For both tests, the calculated total headloss in the pipes were
considered only due to the pipe friction and then they were used in Darcy-
Weisbach formula (Eq. 7.5) to calculate the pipe roughness. But in fact, the
total headloss is composed of the friction headloss due to the pipe
roughness and of the minor headloss due to the pipe fitting (elbows, tees,
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 139
valves, etc). The same for EPAXL where in the simulation model for
“Toulon Est” built in EPANET the pipe fittings are not considered and only
the mainline pipe was modeled. Moreover, the pipe diameters used in these
calculations are the nominal diameters of the steel pipes, but in fact a
concrete lining was applied to the inner surface of the mainline pipe of
“Toulon Est”. The thickness of this lining is estimated between 8 mm and
12 mm.
The roughness obtained by the SCP’s Maintenance Division are
computed by using a pre-prepared excel sheet and the formula of (Eq. 7.10)
as we mentioned previously (see section 7.8.4). It is clear that this implicit
formula is not the same as the explicit formula in (Eq. 7.7) used in
EPANET software to compute the friction factor ( f ). To show how this
causes some discrepancies between the calibration results of the SCP’
Maintenance Division and that of EPAXL Calibrator the following
simulation are performed:
The results of simulations (1) and (2) are shown in Table 7.13 and
Figure 7.6, and the results of simulations (3) and (4) are shown in Table
7.14 and Figure 7.7. For each simulation the average of the differences
between the measured and simulated pressures (average ∆|P|), standard
error (σ), and confidence interval (C.I.) are computed. One can note that
for both tests the simulated pressures using the ε-values of EPAXL
(Ps_ε_EPAXL) are closer to the measured pressures (Pm) than the
simulated pressures using the ε-values of SCP (Ps_ε_SCP) as shown in the
figures and the tables. Moreover, we perceive that the Ps_ε_SCP is always
less than the Pm and the deviation from Pm increases, almost exponentially,
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 140
0.50
(Pm) - (Ps_ε_SCP)
(Pm) - (Ps_ε_EPAXL)
0.40
0.30
Pressure Difference (m )
0.20
0.10
0.00
A C E F G H K T
-0.10
-0.20
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 141
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
A C E F G H K T
-0.20
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 142
Qin = Qout ⎫
Where: ⎪
⎪
⎬ (Eq. 7.11)
Qin = Q1 ⎪
Qout = Q2 + Q3 + Q4 + Q5 + Q6 + Q7 + Q8 + Q9 + Q10 + (q1+ q2)⎪⎭
For the non measured demand q1 and q2 we do not have records for
these demands, but however they are very small with respect to the other
measured demands and thus they will be neglected in this calibration.
Another parameter that doesn’t appear in the right-hand side of (Eq.
7.11) is the “unaccounted-for water” (the portion of total consumption that
is lost due to system leakage, unmetered services, or other causes).
According to the SCP’s Maintenance Division this portion is approximately
8% of the total consumption.
The calibration data that used here are the hourly measured flows (Q)
and pressures (P) for three selected periods:
First of all, we will check the validity of the continuity equation (Eq.
7.11). Figure 7.8 shows the hourly Qin and Qout during these selected
periods. Then, the differences between Qin and Qout (∆Q) are calculated and
plotted in Figure 7.9. The average ∆Q is about -2.4 ± 2.3 l/s.
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 143
Figure 7.8 : Hourly total water demand – Toulon Est, Year 2005
2.5
Qin
Qout
2.0
Hourly demand (m3/s)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1st to 7th of April 2005 1st to 7th of August 2005 1st to 7th of October 2005
0.04
∆Q (m3/s)
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
1st to 7th of April 2005 1st to 7th of August 2005 1st to 7th of October 2005
A. Direct approach
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 144
As one can see on the hydraulic schema of “Toulon Est” (Figure 7.2)
the pressures are measured at the start and end node of each pipe (except
for pipe K-T and pipe T-M where no pressure data is available at the SCP’s
control center) and the pipe’s flow can be calculated from the continuity
equation at each node. Therefore, the pipes can be calibrated easily. From
the pressure measurement at the start and end node for a pipe we compute
the total head at each node (node’s elevation + node’s pressure), and the
difference between total head at the start and end node is the headloss in
that pipe (hf). The roughness can be obtained in two manners:
hf = k Q2 + e ( Eq . 7 .12 )
8 fL
Where : k = and the friction factor ( f ) is computed from
gπ 2D 5
Colebrook-White equation (Eq. 7.7) and it depends on the pipe flow (Q).
However, for Reynolds Number Re > 25,000 and relative roughness (ε/D >
3.5 x 10-5) the Colebrook-White equation can be reduced to:
0 . 25
fˆ = 2
( Eq . 7 . 13 )
⎡ ⎛ ε ⎞⎤
⎢ Log ⎜ + 1 . 06 × 10 − 5 ⎟ ⎥
⎣ ⎝ 3 .7 D ⎠⎦
(Eq. 7.7) is plotted against (Eq. 7.13) on Figure 7.10. The differences
between friction factors computed by the two equations are less than ±3%.
0.07 f = 1.0008 fˆ
0.06
R 2 = 0 .9998
0.05
f
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08
fˆ
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 145
Thus, the friction factor is not anymore function of the pipe flow and
if we perform linear regression between (hf) and (Q2) for each pipe, the
slope k of (Eq. 7.12) can be estimated and, hence, the friction factor f and
then the pipe roughness ε also can be estimated. The small e that appears in
(Eq.7.12) is the intercept with the vertical abscissas (hf) and it must be zero
in the ideal case.
8.0
7.0
6.0
hf (m)
5.0
R-Squared = 0.93
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
2 6 2
Q (m /s )
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 146
7.0
6.0
5.0
hf (m)
4.0
3.0
R-Squared = 0.88
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
-1.0
Q2 (m6/s2)
13.0
11.0
9.0
hf (m)
7.0
5.0
R-Squared = 0.93
3.0
1.0
Q2 (m6/s2)
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 147
14.0
12.0
10.0
hf (m)
8.0
6.0
R-Squared = 0.86
4.0
2.0
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
-2.0
Q2 (m6/s2)
10.0
8.0
6.0
hf (m)
4.0
R-Squared = 0.87
2.0
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
-2.0
Q2 (m6/s2)
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 148
15.0
13.0
11.0
hf (m)
9.0
7.0
5.0
R-Squared = 0.88
3.0
1.0
32.0
27.0
22.0
hf (m)
17.0
12.0
R-Squared = 0.90
7.0
2.0
0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
-3.0
Q2 (m6/s2)
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 149
In the ideal case where the pressure and flow measurements are
accurate then plotting (hf) versus (Q2) must perfectly fit a straight line
whose intercept is equal zero. In practice, nothing is ideal and the
measuring devices are not perfectly accurate and, hence, there are always
errors in the measured parameters. As shown on the figures from the linear
regression performed here, the points (hf, Q2) are not perfectly linear as R-
squared between 0.86 and 0.93, and the intercept (e) is not null. This
mainly is because of the errors in the measured pressures and flows and
also because of the fact that we did assume that the headloss are only due to
the friction in the pipe and we ignored the loss due to pipe fittings.
For Pipe A-B, the intercept was significant (2.767 m) and the
estimated roughness was high (8.44 ± 0.66 mm) and this is because in the
reality there is an electromagnetic flowmeter, a butterfly control valve and
filter in proximity to point A (see Figure 2.3) and the headloss in these
device is important even it might be higher than the friction headloss.
However, for Pipe F-G and Pipe H-K the intercepts were negtive and
relativly small (-0.777 ± 0.195 m for Pipe F-G, and -0.765 ± 0.557 m for
Pipe H-K) and this might be explained by that the errors are more
important than the fitting headloss in these two pipes.
⎡ −0.ˆ5 ⎤
⎢
ε = 3 .7 D 10 f
− 1 .06 × 10 ⎥
−5
( Eq . 7 .15 )
⎢ ⎥
⎣ ⎦
Substitute (Eq. 7.14) in (Eq. 7.15) :
⎡ − 0 .5
⎤
⎢ gπ D 5 h f
⎥
2
× 2
ε = 3 . 7 D ⎢10 − 1 . 06 × 10 ⎥
8L Q −5
( Eq . 7 . 16 )
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣ ⎦
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 150
B. EPAXL Calibrator
161
160
Pressure (m)
159
158
157
156
155 P_Measured
P_EPAXL
154 P_Regression
153
152
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
198
196
Pressure (m)
194
192
190
188
P_Measured
P_EPAXL
186
P_Regression
184
182
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 153
245
Pressure (m)
240
235
230
P_Measured
P_EPAXL
225 P_Regression
220
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
270
265
260
255
Pressure (m)
250
245
240
235 P_Measured
P_EPAXL
230 P_Regression
225
220
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 154
290
280
270
Pressure (m)
260
250
P_Measured
240
P_EPAXL
P_Regression
230
220
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
300
290
280
Pressure (m)
270
260
250
P_Measured
240 P_EPAXL
P_Regression
230
220
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 155
290
280
270
Pressure (m)
260
250
240
230 P_Measured
P_EPAXL
220 P_Regression
210
200
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
If delta is less than 1.0 this means that the Ps-EPAXL is the closest to
the Pm and if delta is greater than 1.0 this means that the Ps-Reg is closest to
the Pm. As shown on Figure 7.25, the delta’s values are less than 1.0 in
most cases.
2
Δ
0
Point B Point C Point E Point F Point G Point H Point K
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 156
From this calibration work we obtained four values for roughness for
each pipe, which are:
- The average roughness obtained by SCP’s Maintenance Division
from the two field tests for year 2006 (έ_SCP in Table 7.9).
- The average roughness obtained by EPAXL Calibrator of the two
field tests for year 2006 (έ_EPAXL in Table 7.10)
- The roughness obtained from linear regression for year 2005
(ε_Reg_05 in Table 7.15)
- The roughness obtained by EPAXL for year 2005 (ε_EPAXL_05
in Table 7.17)
8
Roughness (mm)
0
Pipe A-B Pipe B-C Pipe C-E Pipe E-F Pipe F-G Pipe G-H Pipe H-K Pipe K-T
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 157
One may ask “what are the true pipes roughness?”. In the single-
period calibration (2006) we compute the roughness that satisfy only two
field measurements while in the extended-period (2005) we compute the
roughness that satisfy a wide-rang operation conditions, but the flows
measurements were more accurate in the single-period calibration since the
measurements were made under controlled conditions, and in the extended-
period calibration the flows measurements are less accurate because of the
unaccounted-for water which is around 8%. However, the maximum and
minimum of these four values for roughness could give an idea about the
range within which the true roughness falls.
One must be careful when using pipe headloss hf to estimate the pipe
roughness. The problem of hf is that the hf is computed such that:
Where Pup and Zup are the pressure and the elevation of the upstream
node, and Pdown and Zdown are the pressure and the elevation of the
downstream node. If we assume that the elevations are exact but the error
in the pressure measuring device is about ±0.5 m and the headloss are
around 1.65 m (pipe of L =1,000 m, D =1.0 m, ε =1.0 mm, Q =1.0 m3). If
the errors committed in measuring Pup and Pdown have, luckily, the same
magnitude and sign then the hf will be correct. However, if the error in
measuring Pup is equal to +0.25 m and the error in measuring Pdown is equal
to -0.25 m then the error in hf will be +0.50 m and this is about 30% of the
computed parameter hf.
Also, this calibration work shows how difficult is the calibration
process of the hydraulic model for water pipe network; even for a simple
network like “Toulon Est” network, where there is no loops and the state of
the system is well-identified (i.e. nodes demands and pressures and pipes
flows are known in space and in time) and there is only seven parameters to
be calibrated (roughness). However, when the system contains many pipes
and loops and not only the pipes roughness are the calibration parameters
but the nodes demand factors are to be calibrated too, and if there is a
limited number of pressure and flow measurements in the system, then the
calibration process is a real challenge to the modeler. Regarding EPAXL
Calibrator, the algorithm presented here needs to be improved to be faster
and more robust.
Finally, the calibration process understands some choices and
parameters that have an effect on this process, such as:
CHAPTER 8
8. Demand Prediction
8.1 Introduction
resources demands management and planning, and also for water optimal
control of water supply and distribution systems. The main objectives of
demand forecasting are management and conservation of natural water
resources, and optimization of water supply (Guhl, 1999).
A water utility’s primary purpose is to provide water to its
customers, but it must also plan for its customers’ future water needs. A
critical aspect of this planning is predicting short-term, medium-term, and
long-term water demands and optimizing the water supply system to meet
these demands and also managing water demands and supplies in the
future. Moreover, understanding the magnitude and location of future water
demands, and any potential changes from existing water demands, allows
to develop recommendations that will meet or manage demands for water
quantity and quality into the future (Ani, 2003). If changes in water
demand can be predicted, the inflow can be changed in advance and the
operation becomes more effective and efficient. For this reason,
anticipation is often used to improve the control response.
Making more efficient use of existing water resources through
demand management is an economical and environmentally responsible
way to meet growing demand for water. Water conservation is an important
component of managing water demands and supplies in the future.
Agricultural practices could achieve conservation at an on-farm level e.g.,
by reduction of applied water, and at a district level e.g., through such
methods as canal lining, spill recovery, and automation (AWWA, 2001).
Water demand forecasts are used in many areas of utility planning.
These demand forecasts can contribute to identifying appropriate
management alternatives in balancing supply and demand. From small
utility models to long-term interstate resource management, reliable
forecasts are critical components of water planning and policy. To be
reliable, water demand forecasts must include social, economic, and
environmental factors. The use of such forecasts has become standard,
particularly when considering new water resource supplies. Forecasting
water demand is inherently challenging, as the factors that most directly
affect water demand are difficult to predict. Viewed in its simplest form,
future water demands are a function of a region’s population, the growth or
decline of its industrial activity, technological changes, code changes,
water pricing, and changes in outdoor water use associated with weather
and landscaping choices. Unforeseen events significantly impact these
factors (Ani, 2003) and (Jowitt, 1992).
Water demand forecasts are essential to many planning activities
including expansion, expanding existing distribution systems, preparing
contingency plans for droughts, evaluating conservation methods,
performing sensitivity analysis using different assumptions about the
explanatory variables, and assessing utility revenues (Ani, 2003). In
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 161
operating costs and improve the supply and distribution of water. In order
to develop an expert system for monitoring and control of the water
distribution system, we conduct knowledge acquisition through interviews
with human experts and obtained heuristics for effective water utility
operations. Analysis of these heuristics indicates that it is important that
short-term forecasts of water demand is accurately estimated in order that
the optimization of water supply and effective operation may be derived.
The inaccurate demand estimations by the experience of the experts
possibly results in insufficient operations of the water distribution system,
and the lack of knowledge on water demand prediction translates to a gap
in the knowledge base of the expert system and, thus, manual knowledge
acquisition by itself is inadequate for handling all situations that may arise
in a complex engineering application (An, 1995).
Therefore, resource engineers have developed predictive models that
guide our management of water supply and demand. Predictive models
have become commonplace in all phases of planning, providing resource
managers guidance for the various possible futures (Law, 2000). The goal
is to create a predictive model that appropriately captures the uncertainty of
the future and guides decision making. Forecast models are primarily
dependent on the data available and the model’s intended use. The
complexity of a model hinges on the level of detail in the data required by
the model. However, a more complex model is not always more
appropriate.
Water demand models can have various timesteps: long (annual or
decadal), medium (monthly to annual), or short term (hourly, daily, or
weekly) (AWWA, 1996). For the purposes of this study, we focus on short-
term models, more precisely daily demand prediction.
Water resource engineers commonly use the past as a guide to the
future, planning as if events that have not occurred are unlikely to occur.
However, the future’s uncertainty has required planners to predict water
demand two or three decades into the future. Past, long-term forecasts have
allowed resource managers to be generous in their estimates of water
demand. Long-term water demand modeling is a difficult task; it requires
robust data sets and consideration of uncertain climate, economic, and
cultural conditions. Therefore, water resource managers felt the
professional responsibility to generate demands that were unlikely to be
exceeded. For example, during the post-World War II years, resource
managers and planners typically chose the largest feasible project. While
population and the economy grew, such decisions were justifiable (DeKay,
1985). Now, however, we find population growth more stable and
significant environmental considerations. These changes have caused many
water resource managers to rethink long-term demand planning.
Long-term models are helpful for supply planning, reservoir or urban
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 163
systems, there are three water delivery methods which can be distinguished
according to the degree of freedom given to the water users in choosing the
flow rate, duration, and frequency of water delivery. Clemmens (1987)
describes various water delivery schedules, with their intended flow rate,
duration, and frequency:
• Qualitative method
Where there is no formal mathematical model, often because the data
available is not enough to be representative of the future long-term
forecasting. Qualitative methods rely on judgment, intuition, and subjective
evaluation (Ernest, 2001). Among the major techniques within this
category are market research (surveys), Delphi (panel consensus), historical
analogy, and management estimation (guess). Not everyone has estimation
talent; however, some studies have shown that a mathematical technique,
consistently followed, will lead to better results than the “expert
modification” of those forecasts. Nonetheless, many mathematical
techniques need significant quantities of historical data that may not be
available. When substantial data are lacking, subjective management
judgment may be the better alternative.
• Connectionist methods
This method is commonly known as “Artificial Neural Networks
ANN” which is a branch of artificial intelligence. ANNs are types of
information processing system whose architectures are inspired by the
structure of human biological neural systems (Refenes, 1994). They
concentrate on machine learning which was based on the concept of self-
adjustment of internal control parameters. The ANN environment consists
of five primary components; learning domain, neural nets, learning
strategies, learning process, and analysis process. The data used in the
model to train neural networks are historical recorded data. Combining the
learning capabilities of neural networks and time series techniques and
using wavelet decomposition technique to explore more details of the time
series signals. The wavelet transform has its roots in the Fourier transform.
Typical neural network models are closely related to statistical models.
However, high noise, high non-stationarity time series prediction is
fundamentally difficult for these models. A wide range of interesting
applications of ANNs has been investigated; it can be applied in pattern
recognition, to diagnosing problems, in decision making and optimization,
for design and planning, for management, and can be also applied for
prediction or forecasting. The behavior of complex systems has been a
broad application domain for neural networks. In particular, applications
such as electric load forecasting, economic forecasting, and forecasting
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 166
natural and physical phenomena have been widely studied (Grino, 1992),
(Metaxiotis, 2003), (Dillon, 1991), and (Refenes, 1994).
In this thesis we will consider only the time series method for
forecasting the water demand for the system being studied here.
The term “univariate time series” refers to a time series that consists
of single (scalar) observations recorded sequentially over equal time
increments (Brockwell, 1991 and 1996). Time series forecasting methods
are widely used in business situations where forecasts of a year or less are
required. Classically, researchers approach the problem of modeling a time
series by identifying four kinds of components. These four components are
known as Seasonality, Trend, Cycling, and Residual (Abu-Mostafa, 1996).
Cov( X , Y ) ∑ [ (x t − x )( yt − y ) ]
Rx , y = = t =1
( Eq. 8.1 )
Var( X ) ×Var(Y ) T
∑ (x
t =1
t − x)
2
∑( y t − y)
2
Cov ( rt , rt − l ) Cov ( rt , rt − l ) γ l
ρl = = = ( Eq. 8.2 )
Var ( rt ) Var ( rt − l ) Var ( rt ) γ0
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 168
• White noise
We now turn to another class of simple models that are also useful in
modeling stationary time series. These models are called moving-average
(MA) models. There are several ways to introduce MA models. One
approach is to treat the model as a simple extension of white noise series.
Another approach is to treat the model as an infinite-order AR model with
some parameter constraints. In adopting the second approach, there is no
particular reason, but simplicity, to assume a priori that the order of an AR
model is finite. We may entertain, at least in theory, an AR model with
infinite order as:
Multiplying (Eq. 8.8) by θ1 and subtracting the result from (Eq. 8.7),
we obtain:
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 170
rt = φ 0 (1 − θ 1 ) + a t − θ 1 a t − 1 ( Eq. 8.9 )
Which says that except for the constant term rt is a weighted average
of shocks at and at−1. Therefore, the model is called an MA model of order
1 or MA(1) model for short. The general form of an MA(1) model is:
rt = c 0 + a t − θ 1 a t −1
( Eq. 8.10 )
Many real time series do not satisfy the stationarity conditions stated
earlier for which ARMA models have been derived. Then these times
series are called non-stationary and should be re-expressed such that they
become stationary with respect to the variance and the mean. One of the
methodologies that can be used to make a non-stationary time series
stationary is to apply a difference operator to a data series.
However, differencing can sometimes reduce a non-stationary series
to stationarity. Differencing once or twice is often enough. The Box-
Jenkins model assumes that the time series is stationary. Box and Jenkins
recommend differencing non-stationary series one or more times to achieve
stationarity. Doing so produces an ARIMA model, with the “I” standing for
“Integrated”.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 171
¾ Seasonality
Some time series exhibits certain cyclical or periodic behavior. Such
a time series is called a seasonal time series. If seasonality is present, it
must be incorporated into the time series model. Box-Jenkins models can
be extended to include seasonal autoregressive and seasonal moving
average terms. Although this complicates the notation and mathematics of
the model, the underlying concepts for seasonal autoregressive and
seasonal moving average terms are similar to the non-seasonal
autoregressive and moving average terms. The most general ARIMA Box-
Jenkins model includes difference operators, autoregressive terms, moving
average terms, seasonal difference operators, seasonal autoregressive
terms, and seasonal moving average terms.
A seasonal ARIMA model is classified as an
ARIMA(p,d,q)x(P,D,Q)S model, where P = number of seasonal
autoregressive terms (SAR), D = number of seasonal differences, Q =
number of seasonal moving average terms (SMA), S = number of seasons.
The first and most important step in fitting an ARIMA model is the
determination if the series is stationary and if there is any significant
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 172
rt +1 =
(rt
+ rt -1 + ... + rt - n +1 )
( Eq. 8.13 )
n
Where n is the number of observations used in the calculation. The
forecast for time period t + 1 is the forecast for all future time periods.
However, this forecast is revised only when new data becomes available.
Where the weights (w) are any positive numbers such that:
w1 + w2 + …+wn = 1
• Exponential Smoothing
Where:
rt = actual value
Ft = forecasted value
α = smoothing factor, which ranges from 0 to 1
t = current time period.
Ft +1 = Ft + α ε t ( Eq. 8.16 )
Where (εt) is the forecast error (actual - forecast) for period (t). In
other words, the new forecast is the old one plus an adjustment for the error
that occurred in the last forecast. A small (α) provides a detectable and
visible smoothing. While a large (α) provides a fast response to the recent
changes in the time series but provides a smaller amount of smoothing.
An exponential smoothing over an already smoothed time series is
called double-exponential smoothing. In some cases, it might be
necessary to extend it even to a triple-exponential smoothing, and the
resulting set of equations is called the “Holt-Winters (HW)” method after
the names of the inventors. While simple exponential smoothing requires
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 175
∑ X i - Fi
( Eq. 8.17 )
MAE = i=1
N
∑ (X i - Fi )2
( Eq. 8.18 )
MSE = i=1
X t − Ft
RAPE t = 100 × ( Eq. 8.19 )
Xt
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 176
∑ (X )(F )
N
i − X i − F
R = i=1
( Eq. 8.20 )
∑ (X ) ∑ (F )
N N
2 2
i − X i − F
i=1 i=1
∑ (e e i −1 )
2
i −
D - W Statistic = i= 2
n ( Eq. 8.21 )
∑e
i =1
i
2
th
Where ei is the i error. D-W takes values within [0, 4]. For no serial
correlation, a value close to 2 is expected. With positive serial correlation,
adjacent deviates tend to have the same sign; therefore D-W becomes less
than 2; whereas with negative serial correlation, alternating signs of error,
D-W takes values larger than 2. For a forecasting where the value of D-W
is significantly different from 2, the estimates of the variances and
covariances of the model’s parameters can be in error, being either too
large or too small.
some other issues may be harder. The infrequent forecast user wants to
know details about the ease of learning and ease of use of the program.
These products are frequently expensive, and the best way to answer these
and other questions would be to download a “trial version” of the product.
These versions are generally either the complete product limited to some
time duration (15 or 30 days) or a certain number of runs, or have some
type of crippling such as limited time series size, or not printing or saving
data.
∑
j =1
Q ij
( Eq. 8.23 )
Q i =
96
Then, for each statistical period Psi, we build the “dimensionless
curve” such that the flows Qij are divided by their average flow Q i to
define the ratio kij where:
Q ij
k ij = ( Eq. 8.24 )
Q i
Now, we create the “trend curve” such that the average of the kij
ratios is calculated for each timestep over the statistical horizon:
10
∑ k ij
, j from 1 to 96 ( Eq. 8.25)
kj = i =1
10
This dimensionless curve gives the tendency of evolution of the flow
over the statistical period, and it will be used to predict the demand flow for
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 180
the coming statistical period. So, we define the “stabilization period Pstab”
equals to 4 timesteps (i.e. 1 hour) preceding the actual date, and the average
flow is then calculated over this period for only the last statistical curve,
and we call this flow as “stabilization flow Qstab”. Also we calculate the
average k of the dimensionless curve over this period. The ration of these
two values is the “adjustment flow Qadjust” which used to adjust the
dimensionless curve:
96 96
∑Q
j = 93
1j ∑k
j = 93
j
Q stab ( Eq. 8.26 )
Q stab = , k stab = → Q adjust =
4 4 k stab
We multiply the dimensionless curve by Qadjust to produce the
prediction curve for the considered period of 24 hours:
Figure 8.1 shows the recorded demand versus the predicted one for
“Toulon Est” network from midday 10/03/2006 to midday 13/03/2006.
These recorded demands are measured by electromagnetic flowmeter
installed at the head of the system. The demands characteristics of “Toulon
Est” network have been introduced in Chapter 2 (see section 2.7). The
predicted demands are computed using the above technique.
0.6
0.5
Q (m3/s)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
00:00:00
11/03/06
00:00:00
12/03/06
00:00:00
13/03/06
12:00:00
13/03/06
12:00:00
10/03/06
Time
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 181
1. Data Screening.
2. Data Smoothing.
3. Data Forecasting.
1. Data screening
GIDAP assumes that the actual demand data that it uses to predict
contains possible transmission and recording errors. These errors may
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 182
Data Maximum
Smoothing Significant
Harmonic
Data Profile
Forecasting Categories
Dt [n ] − Dt [m ]
FD [n ] = ( Eq. 8.28 )
n−m
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 183
2. Data smoothing
NH NH
Dˆ (t , NH ) = aˆ 0 + ∑ aˆ j Cos (2πjt ) +
j =1
∑ bˆ Sin (2πjt )
j =1
j
( Eq. 8.31 )
Where:
D(t) = demand value at time t
Dˆ (t , NH ) = estimate of D(t) summing NH harmonic
aj , bj = real harmonic coefficients
â j , b̂ j = estimate of aj , bj
NH = referred to the smoothing threshold, or the Highest
Significant Harmonic.
3. Data forecasting
E = Pt – Dt ( Eq. 8.32 )
Sit = Dt + ( 1 – α )3 * E
When actual data for time period t+1 becomes available, the above
process is repeated for the forecast for the time period t+2. The
performance of the exponential smoothing depends largely upon the value
selected for the smoothing constant a. This constant effectively controls the
number of past realizations of the time series that are to influence the
forecast. Small values for a give more weight to previous data values and
therefore results in a slow response of the forecasting model to trends in the
demand data. Large values for a give more weight to more recent values
and cause model to respond more rapidly to change in demand.
8.9.1 Approach
B- Data pre-treatment
Since the historical demand data contains some missing and noise
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 187
values, the demand data will be screened and smoothed to estimate the
missing one and remove the noise before passing to the prediction process.
The screening process used here is just to eliminate the outlier data or
extrapolate the missing one using moving average without losing any
important information about the original demand profile. The screening is
based on a relatively very coarse criterion that is: starting from a valid
demand, the rate of change in system’s demand over 15 minutes will not
exceed 30% and erroneous values and then the demand values are replaced
by moving average demand for the last three measured demands.
1.0
0.8
demand (m 3/s)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
8-juin-02 9-juin-02 10-juin-02 10-juin-02
A spectral analysis has been also done for the measured demand and
the periodogram was drawn0 (Figure 8.4). It was detected that the
maximum period was at about wavelength = 96, where the wavelength
corresponds to the number of measurements, thus the wavelength =96
means that the system’s periodicity is every 96 measurements, in others
words, 24-hour water demand pattern. The spectrum shown in Figure 8.4 is
for year 2002 only.
C- Prediction period
The demand will be predicted for the coming day using certain
number of preceding days, this number refers to the “prediction period”.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 188
For WMA, SES, TES, and FINESSE two prediction periods were selected:
21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). While for the SCP prediction
technique only one prediction period has been selected, that is 10 days. For
ARIMA, the prediction period is from the beginning of the year to the day
before the day for which the demand will be predicted.
2 ,0 0 0
Demand (m3/s)
1 ,5 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
0 ,5 0 0
0 ,0 0 0
2 ,E+0 9
2 ,E+0 9
Period
W a ve le n g th = 96
1 ,E+0 9
5 ,E+0 8
0 ,E+0 0
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
Wave le ngth
The demand will be predicted 24hours foreword for every day for the
period from the 1st of May 2002 to the 31 October 2002, and from the 1st of
May 2003 to the 31 October 2003, which means 184 days for each year.
Because of the daily water demand behavior of this system, the prediction
is vertical prediction, where the demand at for example 08:00 on a given
day is based on the demand at 08:00 on the preceding days. The predicted
demand will be compared to the measured one to evaluate the accuracy of
the prediction using the criterion described soon.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 189
F- Prediction tools
The tools that were used to realize the prediction are briefly
described here for each technique:
∑ t ×Dt
PD t +1 = t =1
T
( Eq. 8.35 )
∑
t =1
t
Where:
t = time period (t =1, 2, 3, …, T)
T = prediction period or number of days used to predict demand
Dt = actual demand at time period t
PDt = predicted demand for time period t
For the prediction period (T), two prediction periods were selected:
21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks).
Et = PD t -Dt
S t = D t + (1 - α ) × Ε t ( Eq. 8.36 )
PD t = St
Where:
t = time period (t =1, 2, 3, …, T)
T = prediction period or number of days used to predict demand
N = number of demand measurements per day
Dt = actual demand at time period t
PDt = predicted demand for time period t
Et = actual prediction error at time period t
α = smoothing constant
For the prediction period (T), two prediction periods were selected:
21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). One of the problems regarding
the SES is setting its smoothing constants, alpha, to the appropriate values.
Thus, a several values of alpha were used to predict the demand for the
same 184 days, and then selecting the “optimal” value of alpha that one
results statistically in predictions close to the measured demands.
The following values of alpha were used : α = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5,
0.6, 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9. It was found that alpha optimal for year 2002 was α =
0.7, while for year 2003 alpha optimal was α = 0.5 and 0.6 (see Table 2.1).
As a compromise, alpha was selected to be α = 0.6 for both years.
Where:
t = time period (t =1, 2, 3,… T)
T = prediction period or number of days used to predict demand
N = number of demand measurements per day
Dt = actual demand at time period t
PDt = predicted demand for time period t
Et = actual prediction error at time period t
α = smoothing constant
For the prediction period (T), two prediction periods were selected:
21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). Again, we should set the
smoothing constant, alpha, to the appropriate values. The following values
of alpha were used : α = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9. It was
found that alpha optimal for year 2002 was α = 0.2, and for year 2003 alpha
optimal was α = 0.2 (see Table 8.2). Thus, alpha was selected to be α = 0.2
for both years.
room of SCP as describe in section 8.7 of this chapter, where the prediction
period is 10 days and the prediction is updated about four times a day, i.e.
every 6 hours. However, we will use the same prediction period (10 days),
the prediction will be updated every 6 hours (4 times /day), and then every
24 hours (1 times/day) to compare between the two updating frequencies.
For ARIMA, because this technique is more complex than the above
techniques, we used statistical analysis software known as “NCSS”
(Hintze, 2005), which provides the user with time-series analysis tools;
including ARIMA model.
The first step is to determine the order of differencing needed to
stationarize the series. From the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation
functions, any non-stationarity in the series can be identified. The ACF is
shown in Figure 8.5 for demand series. From the ACFs for both years 2002
and 2003, it is clear that the ACFs decay very slowly, indicating non-
stationary series, and there are peaks every 96 time lags. These peaks imply
a seasonal effect of season length = 96, which correspond to a daily pattern
since the data is measured every 15 minutes (this already shown in the
periodogram in Figure 8.4). It is likely that the model will need to
incorporate a first order consecutive difference and a 96 seasonal difference
term. Therefore, the ACF and PACF of the model ARIMA (0,1,0)(0,1,0)96
were examined. These are shown in Figure 8.6 and Figure 8.7. The series
are now stationarized after differencing. In light of these figures, a model
consisting of a non-seasonal autoregressive parameter, two non-seasonal
moving average parameters, and a seasonal moving average parameter was
considered as an appropriate model. The ARIMA model is written as
ARIMA (1,1,2)(0,1,1)96, and the parameter estimation there significance on
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 193
the model were done by the NCSS software as shown in Table 8.3.
However, further terms were added to the model but were found to be
unnecessary. The next step was to examine the residual of the time series,
and this done by the examination of the ACF of the residual. The ACF is
shown in Figure 8.8 for both years 2002 and 2003. The figure shows that
the series is white noise.
While the new FINESSE demand predictor downgraded to the fourth rank,
then TES, WMA, and the old FINESSE demand predictor is the last one
that what shows us Table 8.5and Figure 8.10.
For all cases, it is clear that the single exponential smoothing
forecasts the demand better than the triple exponential smoothing.
Moreover, the effect of the 21-day and 42-day prediction periods was
almost negligible for SES, TES and FINESSE, and this applies to both
years 2002 and 2003. Generally, the 21-day prediction period is fairly
better, except for old FINESSE predictor for the year 2003.
R-Squared Correlation
2002 2002
1.00 1.00
0.90
Correlation
R-squared
0.90
0.80
0.80
0.70
0.60 0.70
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24
SES-21
SES-42
WMA-21
WMA-42
SCP-24
SES-21
SES-42
WMA-21
WMA-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
SCP-2h
SCP-2h
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
2002 2002
0.07 0.25
0.06
0.05 0.20
MARE
0.04
MSE
0.15
0.03
0.02 0.10
0.01
0.00 0.05
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
SCP-24
SES-21
SES-42
WMA-21
WMA-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
SCP-24
SES-21
SES-42
WMA-21
WMA-42
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
SCP-2h
SCP-2h
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
Correlation
R-squared
0.80
0.70 0.80
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.40 0.60
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24
SES-21
SES-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
WMA-21
WMA-42
SCP-24
SES-21
SES-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
WMA-21
WMA-42
SCP-2h
FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
SCP-2h
FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
2003 2003
0.06 0.25
0.23
0.05 0.21
0.04 0.19
MARE
0.17
MSE
0.03 0.15
0.13
0.02 0.11
0.01 0.09
0.07
0.00 0.05
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24
SES-21
SES-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
SCP-24
SES-21
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
WMA-21
WMA-42
SES-42
WMA-21
WMA-42
SCP-2h
FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
SCP-2h
FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
Table 8.5 : Results - 2003
Rank Method R-Squared Correlation MSE MARE
1 SCP-2h 0.9369 0.9679 0.0063 0.0609
R-Squared Correlation
July 31, 2003 July 31, 2003
1.0 1.0
0.9
0.9
Correlation
R-squared
0.8
0.7 0.8
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.4 0.6
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
WMA-42
WMA-21
SCP-24
FIN42_New_T02
SES-21
SES-42
FIN21_New_T02
WMA-42
WMA-21
SCP-24
FIN42_New_T02
SES-21
SES-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
SCP-2h
SCP-2h
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
July 31, 2003 July 31, 2003
0.020 0.10
0.016 0.08
0.012 0.06
MARE
MSE
0.008 0.04
0.004 0.02
0.000 0.00
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
SCP-24
SES-42
SES-21
WMA-21
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
WMA-42
SCP-24
SES-42
SES-21
WMA-21
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
WMA-42
SCP-2h
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
SCP-2h
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
Figure
Figure 8.12 : 8.12 : Measured
Measured vs. predicted
and predicted demand demands
(July 31, 2003)
1.7 (July 31, 2003)
1.6
1.5
1.4
D e m a n d (m 3 /s )
1.3
1.2
1.1
Dm WMA-21 WMA-42 SES-21
1.0 SES-42 TES-21 TES-42 FIN21_Old
Lately, we also made the same comparison for the years 2004 and
2005. The technique for the old version of FINESSE was excluded here
since it is not available any more. The results of this comparison were in
agreement with what we obtained for years 2002 and 2003. The SCP
technique is still in the first rank, the SES forecasts the demand better than
the TES, and the effect of the prediction periods was almost negligible.
Correlation
R-squared
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.60
0.50 0.70
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24
WMA-21
WMA-42
SCP-24
WMA-21
WMA-42
SES-21
SES-42
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
SES-21
SES-42
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
SCP-2h
SCP-2h
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
2004 2004
0.06 0.30
0.05 0.25
0.04
MARE
0.20
MSE
0.03
0.15
0.02
0.01 0.10
0.00 0.05
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24
SES-21
SES-42
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
WMA-21
WMA-42
SCP-24
SES-21
SES-42
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
WMA-21
WMA-42
SCP-2h
SCP-2h
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
R-Squared Correlation
2005 2005
1.00 1.00
0.90 0.95
Correlation
R-squared
0.90
0.80
0.85
0.70 0.80
0.60 0.75
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24
SES-42
SES-21
WMA-21
WMA-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
SCP-24
SES-42
SES-21
WMA-21
WMA-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
SCP-2h
SCP-2h
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
2005 2005
0.14 0.30
0.12
0.25
0.10
MARE
0.08 0.20
MSE
0.06 0.15
0.04
0.02 0.10
0.00 0.05
ARIMA
ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42
TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24
SES-42
SES-21
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
WMA-21
WMA-42
SCP-24
SES-42
SES-21
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
WMA-21
WMA-42
SCP-2h
SCP-2h
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
8.9.3 Conclusion
CHAPTER 9
9. Optimization of Water Distribution
Networks
9.1 Introduction
technique to apply to it. In practical problems, the computer will carry out
the necessary calculations. Moving from the algorithm or solution
technique computer implementation is generally the province of numerical
methods. Moving from computer implementation back to the algorithm or
solution technique is called verification. The main idea is to make sure that
the computer implementation is actually carrying out the algorithm as it is
supposed to. Again, this will not be of great concern for users of well-tested
commercial optimizers. We will be greatly concerned with the validation
and sensitivity analysis, the process of moving between the algorithm or
solution technique and the real world problem. Validation is the process of
making sure that the algorithm or solution technique is appropriate for the
real situation. Sensitivity analysis looks at the effect of the specific data on
the results.
Computer implementation
Objective function
which the objectives are achieved. If multiple objectives exist, then there
will be multiple objective functions.
The term optimization refers to mathematical techniques used to
automatically adjust some details of the system in such a way as to achieve,
for instance, the best possible system performance, or the least-cost design
that achieves a specified performance level. The best or most advantageous
solution (or solutions in multiobjective analysis) is called the optimal
solution.
Decision variables
Constraints
Where:
f = objective function
x = vector of decision variables
f, g, h = functions of x
X = set of all possible solutions
Given that water and energy are fundamentally important for the
health and vitality of any community, efficient energy management is
important for water companies to meet government environmental targets
and energy savings for economic reasons. For real-time control of water
distribution networks, the aim should be to optimize the whole process for
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 210
are often many alternatives for each component of the system (Pérez,
2001). To illustrate the size of the optimization problem, consider a simple
network design example in which only 10 pipes must be sized. If we
assume that there are 10 discrete diameters to choose from for each pipe,
then theoretically, the total number of possible design alternatives is 1010.
With the aid of a hydraulic network model, the modeler adopts a
trial-and-error approach to produce a few feasible solutions, which can then
be priced. The main reason to rely on any model in a decision-making
process is to provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of
management decisions on the system being considered. A model also
provides an objective assessment as opposed to subjective opinions of
system behavior. Thus, models should be used in support of decision-
making.
Optimization, as it applies to water distribution system modeling, is
the process of finding the best, or optimal, solution to a water distribution
system problem. Examples of possible problems are the design of new
piping or determination of the most efficient pumping schedule. This
section provides a general overview of the optimization process, including
key terminology and principles.
¾ Automated calibration
¾ Operational optimization
¾ Design/Expansion
¾ Rehabilitation
Analytical Optimization
Linear programming
on the basis of the largest gain in the objective function value. It continues
in this way until an extreme point is reached for which no further
improvement in the objective function is possible (Hillier, 1995) and
(Wagner, 1975).
One of the greatest advantages of LP over nonlinear programming
(NLP) algorithms is that if the optimum exists, LP is guaranteed to find it.
Thanks to the advances in computing of the past decade, problems having
tens or hundreds of thousands of continuous variables are regularly solved.
LP makes it possible to analyze the final solution and find its sensitivity to
changes in parameters. However, the assumption of linearity is often not
appropriate for real engineering systems, and it is certainly not appropriate
for water distribution system optimization. Linear programming techniques
work well for pipe sizing problems involving branched systems with one-
directional flow (Walski, 2003).
Nonlinear programming
Dynamic programming
characteristics:
Genetic Algorithms
- Objective function
- Network model
- Operational constraints
1) Objective function
φ= ∑ ∫t γj
(t ) × dt + ∑ ∫ γ (t ) × q (t )dt
j j
( Eq . 9 .2 )
j∈ J p 0
p
η (q j
(t ), c j
()
t ) j∈ J s t0
s s
Where:
o Ф = total operational cost
o Jp = set of indices for pump stations
o Js = set of indices for treatment works (sources)
gq j (t )Δh j (t )
= electrical power consumed by a j pump station at any
o
(
η q j (t ), c j (t ) )
point of time
o g q jΔ h j = mechanical power required to increase the head of the
pump flow q by Δh j , g is the gravity constant
j
o η(qj , cj) = pump efficiency, depends on the pump flow qj and the
control variable cj . The latter vector can represent number of pumps
on and/or pump speed. Typically η(qj , cj) is a quadratic function of qj
o qsj = water treatment work flow (sources)
o c j (t ) = number of pumps-on and/or pump speed
o γ p (t)
j
= unit electricity tariff
o γ sj (t) = volumetric treatment cost for j treatment works
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 218
2) Network model
dh r
= − S − 1 (h r ) q r (t )
dt
Δ h = R (q (t ) ) q (t )
(Eq. 9.3)
Λ q (t ) = − d
⎡Δ h ⎤
ΓΔ h = ⎢ ⎥
⎣ 0 ⎦
3) Operational constraints
These constraints are linear and are very easy to handle by numerical
algorithms. The major task for operational control is to keep the system
states within their assigned limits (feasible region). Practical requirements
are translated from grammatical statements into mathematical equalities
and inequalities. The control variables such as number of pumps-on, pump
speed; or valve positions are constrained by lower and upper bounds
determined by the construction of the control components:
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 219
4) Decision variables
gq j (k )Δh j (k )
k =K k =K
φ = ∑ ∑ γ (k ) × j
× Δt + ∑ ∑γ j
(k ) × qsj (k ) × Δ t ( Eq. 9.8)
j∈J p k = 0
p
(
η q j (k ), c j (k ) ) j∈ J s k = 0
s
dhr
= − S −1 (hr ) qr (t ) ⇒
dt
hr (k + 1) − hr (k ) = −Δ t × S −1 qr (k ) for k = 0,1,..., K − 1 ( Eq . 9.9)
Substantial progress was made in the 1950s and 1960s with the
development of algorithms and computer codes to solve large mathematical
programming problems. The number of applications of these tools in the
1970s was less than expected, however, because the solution procedures
formed only a small part of the overall modeling effort. A large part of the
time required to develop a model involved data preparation and
transformation and report preparation. Each model required many hours of
analyst and programming time to organize the data and write the programs
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 221
that would transform the data into the form required by the mathematical
programming optimizers. Furthermore, it was difficult to detect and
eliminate errors because the programs that performed the data operations
were only accessible to the specialist who wrote them and not to the
analysts in charge of the project (Brooke, 1992).
There are very efficient modeling environments and solvers for
resolving large-scale non-linear programming problems. The General
Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) is a high-level modeling system for
mathematical programming and optimization. It consists of a language
compiler and a stable of integrated high-performance solvers. GAMS is
tailored for complex, large scale modeling applications, and allows to build
large maintainable models that can be adapted quickly to new situations.
GAMS is available for use on personal computers, workstations,
mainframes and supercomputers (Brooke, 1992), (Brooke, 1998), and
(Ulanicki, 1997).
The GAMS programming language is a declarative language in that
it declares what the problem is, rather than how to solve it. The GAMS
compiler and a “Solver” automatically accomplish the latter task. The
GAMS program is automatically compiled to a form that can be executed
by numerical solvers. The results from the numerical solver are
automatically returned and GAMS outputs the results.
CONOPT is a non-linear programming solver, which is based on the
Generalized Reduced Gradient algorithm or originally in French “Gradient
Réduit Généralisé” (GRG) first suggested by Abadie and Carpentier and
was presented in English in 1969 (Abadie, 1969). Details on the algorithm
can be found in Drud (1985 and 1992). Generalized Reduced Gradient is
the generalization of Wolfe's reduced gradient method to a set of non-linear
constraints. Hence it has the advantage of performing iterations in a
reduced state space. Some variables are changed freely by the algorithm
(super-basic variables) and some are calculated from the equality
constraints of the problem (basic variables). The gradient is calculated only
with respect to the super-basic variables. GRG algorithms are efficient for
models with few degrees of freedom (Ladson, 1986) and (Drud, 1992).
CONOPT can solve the optimal scheduling problem in reasonable
operational time for medium-to-large sized networks (Drud, 1996).
The FINESSE scheduler for optimal scheduling problem and
solution of different optimization tasks is based on the GAMS modeling
language and the CONOPT solver. GAMS has been integrated into
FINESSE by using a Dynamic Link Library (Tischer, 2003). The modeling
environment includes previously prepared templates for different types of
tasks. In order to solve a specific network the templates are filled with data
from the data store. The optimal scheduling problem can be solved for any
network topology. Because there is plenty of existing network models, as
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 222
GINAS input data files (Coulbeck, 1985) and (Ulanicki, 1999), the
software is equipped with an auxiliary module to import existing models
into the Data Store. If a model contains too many pipes it can be
automatically simplified by a special network simplification.
The scheduler is general purpose. If a specific network is to be
solved then modeling code is generated from the network data model stored
in the FINESSE database. The optimization procedure is initiated by the
user by operating the user interface. Data is transferred from FINESSE to
the GAMS manager via the FINESSE data interface library. The GAMS
manager produces the GAMS source file containing a complete and
concise formulation of the problem for the specific network. The GAMS
executable is then called to compile and execute the source file. The
GAMS software environment itself controls the solver via its solver
interface. When the solution is completed GAMS outputs the results into an
output file according to instructions given in the source file. This output file
is read by the GAMS manager and translated back to FINESSE via the
FINESSE Data Interface Library (DMU-WSS, 2003).
A) Rounding
B) Cutting planes
C) Branch-and-Bound
The second solution approach developed was the branch and bound
algorithm. Branch and bound, originally introduced by Land and Doig,
pursues a divide-and-conquer strategy. The algorithm starts with a LP
solution and also imposes constraints to force the LP solution to become an
integer solution much as do cutting planes. However, branch and bound
constraints are upper and lower bounds on variables. The branch and bound
solution procedure generates two problems (branches) after each LP
solution. Each problem excludes the unwanted non-integer solution,
forming an increasingly more tightly constrained LP problem. There are
several decisions required. One must both decide which variable to branch
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 226
upon and which problem to solve (branch to follow). When one solves a
particular problem, one may find an integer solution. However, one cannot
be sure it is optimal until all problems have been examined. The branch and
bound approach is the most commonly used general purpose IP solution
algorithm (Beale, 1977) and (Lawler, 1966). It is implemented in many
codes including all of those interfaced with GAMS. However, its use can
be expensive. The algorithm does yield intermediate solutions which are
usable although not optimal. Often the branch and bound algorithm will
come up with near optimal solutions quickly but will then spend a lot of
time verifying optimality (Land, 1960).
D) Lagrangian relaxation
E) Benders decomposition
difficult master problem and a larger simple linear program. This allows
the solution of the problem by two pieces of software which individually
would not be adequate for the overall problem but collectively are
sufficient for the resultant pieces. In addition, the decomposition may be
used to isolate particular easy-to-solve subproblem structures (Benders,
1962).
F) Heuristics
G) Structural exploitation
IP softwares list:
1. CPLEX : linear, quadratically constrained and mixed integer
programming.
2. SBB : Simple Branch-and- Bound Solver -GAMS
3. Excel and Quattro Pro Solvers : spreadsheet-based linear, integer
and nonlinear programming.
4. FortMP : linear and mixed integer quadratic programming.
5. LAMPS : linear and mixed-integer programming.
6. LINDO Callable Library : linear, mixed-integer and quadratic
programming.
7. LINGO : linear, integer, nonlinear programming with modeling
language.
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 229
- Valve aperture,
- Pump speed, or
- Timestep length
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 230
2.0 Pumps
2.7 Pumps
100
3.0 Pumps
Hup Sy s tem Curv e_2.7
80
Δ h vup Sy s tem Curv e_3.0
Hc
Δ h vdown Sy s tem Curv e_2.0
H (m)
60
Hdown
40
20
2.0 pumps
1.0 pump 2.7 pumps 3.0 pumps
0
0 50 100
Qc 150 200 250 300 350
Q (l/s)
Pump Valve
Qcont , Hcont hv, vv Qcont
1.852
⎛ Qp⎞ h v : valve headloss, k v : valve coefficien t
h v = k v ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
v V : valve aperture
⎝ vv ⎠
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 231
Input
From Continuous solution
h cont
v = valve headloss
v cont
v = valve aperture
Calculations
Nup =Round-up(Ncont) Ndown =Round-down(Ncont)
2 2
⎛Q ⎞ ⎛Q ⎞ ⎛Q ⎞ ⎛Q ⎞
H up = a ⎜ cont ⎟ + b⎜ cont ⎟+c H down = a ⎜⎜ cont ⎟⎟ + b⎜⎜ cont ⎟⎟ + c
⎜ N up ⎟ ⎜ N ⎟ ⎝ N down ⎠ ⎝ N down ⎠
⎝ ⎠ ⎝ up ⎠
Δh v = H up − H cont
up
Δh down
v = H cont − H down
v = hv
h up cont
+ Δh up
v
h down
v = h cont
v − Δh down
v
v =
v up
kv
( )
h up
v
0.54
v down
v =
kv
Q cont
(h down
v )
0.54
Q cont
Δv up
v = vv
cont
- v up
v
Δv down
v = v down
v - v cont
v
Discretization
Nup or Ndown?
if Δv down
v > Δv up
v then N disc = N up and v disc
v = v up
v
if Δv down
v < Δv up
v then N disc = N down and v disc
v = v down
v
Output
N disc and v disc
v
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 232
Instead of adjusting the valve aperture one can adjust the pump speed
(RPM) to discretize the pump continuous schedule. If the pump speed is
fixed then the discretization by valve aperture adjustment is the best choice.
The advantage of the pump speed adjustment approach is that both pump
discharge and head for discrete solution will be the same as those for the
continuous solution (Figure 9.4).
When we round up the pump curve will move upward and since we
attempt to maintain the pump discharge and head obtained by the
continuous solution, hence, we decrease the pump speed (RPM) to shift the
pump curve downward such that the pump and system curves intersect at
the same discharge and head obtained by the continuous. On the other
hand, when we round down the pump curve will move downward and since
we attempt to maintain the pump discharge and head obtained by the
continuous solution, hence, we increase the pump speed (RPM) to shift the
pump curve upward such that the pump and system curves intersect at the
same discharge and head obtained by the continuous.
The criterion for rounding up or down is the change in the pump
speed (or speed ration Sr) such that whichever rounding results in smallest
∆Sr will be selected as the discrete solution. This means the deviation from
the pump optimal speed is therefore smallest. The discretization procedure
is shown in Figure 9.5. This procedure is repeated for each timestep.
However, before all we have to derive the equation from which the speed
ratio (Sr) is calculated.
2Pump_Sr=1.075
100
3Pumps_Sr=0.955
80 Hpump
H (m)
3Pumps_Sr=0.955
60
2.7Pumps_Sr=1
40
2Pumps_Sr=1.075
20
Qpump
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Q (l/s)
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 233
⎝ N ⎠ ⎝ N ⎠
⇒ aˆ Sr 2
+ bˆ Sr + cˆ = 0
2
b Q ⎛ Q ⎞
Where : aˆ = c , bˆ = , cˆ = a ⎜ ⎟ − H
N ⎝ N ⎠
- By solving this quadratic equation we obtain:
− bˆ ± bˆ 2 − 4 aˆ cˆ
Sr =
2 aˆ
Input
From Continuous solution
Ncont = number of pumps Srcont = speed ratio
Calculations
Nup =Round-up(Ncont) Ndown =Round-down(Ncont)
aˆ = c aˆ = c
b Q cont b Q cont
bˆ = bˆ =
N up N down
2 2
⎛ Q con t ⎞ ⎛ Q con t ⎞
cˆ = a ⎜ ⎟ − H cˆ = a ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ − H
⎜ N ⎟ cont cont
⎝ up ⎠ ⎝ N down ⎠
− bˆ ± bˆ 2 − 4 aˆ cˆ − bˆ ± bˆ 2 − 4 aˆ cˆ
Sr up = Sr down =
2 aˆ 2 aˆ
Δ Sr up = Sr cont − Sr up Δ Sr down = Sr down − Sr cont
RPMup = Srup × RPMnominal RPM down = Srdown × RPM nominal
Discretization
Nup or Ndown?
Output
N disc and RPM disc
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 235
- And the sum of tup and tdown must be equal to timestep Ts:
Ts = t up + t down
- If Ts =1 hour then tup will be equal to the decimal portion of the Ncont. The
discretization procedure is shown in Figure 9.6.
Input
From Continuous solution
Ncont = number of pumps
Ts =regular timestep
Calculations
Nup =Round-up(Ncont)
Ndown =Round-down(Ncont)
Discretization
tup = ( N cont − N down ) × Ts
tdown = (N up − N cont )× Ts
Output
( Nup , tup )
( Ndown, tdown )
1. Network configuration
dead-end pipe
The scheme in Figure 9.7a is the original network, and the scheme in
Figure 9.7b is exactly the same network except that we added “dead-end”
pipe at the suction side of the pumping station as indicated by the arrow on
the scheme. However, this dead-end pipe has a negligible length and
diameter and thus it does not change a bit the hydraulic operation of the
network. I attempted to find the optimal pump schedule for this network
using Pump Scheduler interface. The starting point (reservoirs levels,
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 238
pumps and valves settings) is the same for both configurations. The
optimization done here is continuous; this means that the number of pumps
in operation can be any real number from 0 to nmax, and thus, for example,
2.3 pumps in operation is feasible.
For the original network in Figure 9.7a, the GAMS/CONOPT solver
was not able to find the optimal solution and instead an “Infeasible
Solution” was found and the total costs were 11.247 k€, and it took 3
seconds to find this solution. For the second network in Figure 9.7b the
solver, however, was able to find the optimal solution and the total cost was
6.228 k€, and it took 8 seconds to find this optimal solution. If one tries to
change the location of the dead-end pipe the Solver will find optimal
solution if and only if the dead-end pipe is connected to one of the three
nodes that have a black mark in the center as shown on Figure 9.7b.
Let’s take also another network example and do the same thing as in
the above example. The scheme in Figure 9.8a is the original network, and
the scheme in Figure 9.8b is exactly the same network except that we
added “dead-end” pipe to the reservoir and at the suction side of the
pumping station as indicated by the arrow on the scheme. For both
configurations and the same starting point (reservoirs levels, pumps and
valves settings), the GAMS/CONOPT was able to find optimal solution for
both of them but the optimal solution was not the same solution for each.
The total costs for the network in Figure 9.8a were 542.0 €, and the total
costs for the network in Figure 9.8a were 174.0 €. If one tries to change the
location of the dead-end pipe, the Solver will find the 174.0 €-optimal
solution when the dead-end pipe is connected to any node in the network
except for the node immediately at the discharge side of the pump where
the 542.0 €-optimal solution is found.
dead-end pipe
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 239
In spite of the fact that the two networks are hydraulically the same
but it seems that they are mathematically not the same for
GAMS/CONOPT Solver.
In parallel, these network models were sent to WSS at DMU to
reexamine them and they have made some investigations into FINESSE
and the scheduler. It was found that the main problem is that we are using
an old version of GAMS and CONOPT (1999) at SCP. While at DMU they
are currently using a later version of GAMS and CONOPT (2003). This
means that they cannot reproduce our results exactly. They got infeasible
solutions for the networks in Figure 9.7a and Figure 9.7b. However, when
they modified the starting point of the pump stations then they got an
optimal solution and the cost was 6.228 k€ for both networks in Figure 9.7a
and Figure 9.7b (the dead-end pipe had no effect), this is exactly the same
cost we got here by the old version of GAMS and CONOPT when the
dead-end pipe is added.
For the networks in Figure 9.8a and Figure 9.8b they did get optimal
solutions without modifying the starting point, and the cost was of 174.0 k€
for the network in Figure 9.8a, and it was of 161.4 € for the network in
Figure 9.8b. In this case even the results of the new version of GAMS and
CONOPT were affected by the dead-end pipe. However, they got the same
optimal solution that we got by the old version of GAMS and CONOPT
when the dead-end pipe is added (174.0 €). The dead-end pipe does not
affect the hydraulic operation of the network and should have zero flow
and zero head difference but this may not be true during the optimization
because there may be a numerical inaccuracy.
2. Starting points
3. Multi-optimal solutions
As has been shown here above, the water network has multi-optimal
solutions according to GAMS Solver, and an optimal solution depends on
the system configuration and the starting point. This is a non-convex
optimization and such a problem may have multiple feasible regions and
multiple locally optimal points within each region. Even that the starting
point is very close to an optimal solution, the Solver might diverges from
the optimal solution.
4. Optimization Timestep
The optimization timestep were 3-hours for which all above optimal
solutions were found. But, when the optimization timestep was reduced to
1-hour it was hard to obtain an optimal solution for the network in Figure
9.7, while the Solver still was able to find optimal solution even when the
timestep was reduced to 1-hour for network in Figure 9.8.
5. Valve aperture
CHAPTER 10
Development Program and the
10.
10.1 Introduction
Two installation options are proposed for the equipment of the plant
at Trapan:
- Installation of two pumps of the same characteristics in parallel.
- Installation of three pumps in parallel with the possibility of delaying the
installation of the third pump.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 244
Efficiency (%) 84 83
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 245
B. Energy production
Figure 10.4 : 700mm-pipeline profile connecting the station and the main
supply pipe
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 250
Siphon intake
Trapan Dam
Pumping Direction
Pumping Station
Turbining Direction
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 251
A- Turbine mode
The two cases are modeled and simulated using FINESSE. Only the
following components are kept and modeled in FINESSE to trace the
curves:
The two system curves issued from this simulation and the
characteristic curve of the turbine provided by the manufacturer are
overlapped and the intersections of both give the operating points. While
referring to the graph below (Figure 10.6) we find that the nominal
operating points of the turbine are:
- Maximum head: The flow is 341 l/s (1,227 m3/h), the head available at
Trapan is 235 m, and the efficiency is 83% (from Figure 10.1).
- Minimum head: The flow is 322 l/s (1,166 m3/h), the head available at
Trapan is 215 m, and the efficiency is 82% (from Figure 10.1).
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 253
300
Turbine
Turbine VV=1525rpm
= 1525rpm
Head_Maxi
charge nette maxi
250 charge nette mini
Head_Mini
200
Head (m)
150
100
50
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
Flow (l/s)
This analysis shows that the operating points of the turbine are
naturally almost at its best performance.
B- Pump mode
2) Pumping to Gratteloup:
Golf Hôtel_maxi
Les Laures_mini
300 Golf Hôtel_mini
1pump_1800
3pump_1800
Les Laures_maxi
Gratteloup_maxi
250 2pumps_1800
Head (m)
3pumps_1525
200 2pumps_1525
1pump_1525 Gratteloup_mini
150 1pump_3000
3pumps_3000
2pumps_3000
100
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Discharge (l/s)
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 261
This is the minimum head required to stop the pump from caviating.
NPSHr is a function of the pump design and is determined based on actual
pump test by the vendor. Pump manufacturer's curves normally provide this
information. The NPSHr is independent of the liquid density. The NPSHr
varies with speed and capacity within any particular pump.
NPSHa represents the pressure of the liquid over the vapor pressure
at the pump inlet and is determined entirely by the system preceding the
pump, and it depends on:
The curve of Figure 10.8 shows us the NPSH available versus the
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 262
pump total flow. We saw that in the case of pumping towards Les Laures
the maximum rotation speed is approximately 1,800 rpm and the flow
through one pump is 300 l/s. At this operating point the NPSHr is
approximately 17 m and the total flow should not thus exceed 900 l/s (from
Figure 10.1). In all cases the flow is limited voluntarily to 300 l/s by group
for reasons of NPSHa.
The Net Positive Suction Head available to the pump inlet must be
above the Net Positive Suction Head required to prevent damage caused by
cavitation.
17.5
17.4
17.3
(m)(mCE)
17.2
disponible
17.1
NPSHNPSHa
17.0
16.9
16.8
16.7
16.6
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300
Débit (lps)
Flow (l/s)
1) Emergency Operation
• Starting the first pump with 1,800 rpm at first level, that is the high
level of Les Laures.
• Starting the second pump with 1,800 rpm at a second level, that is
the low level of Les Laures.
• Controlling the filling flows of each tank by means of the
equipments that already exist and recently renovated. Choices will
have to be made knowing that the maximum flow provided by the
station in this configuration is of 500 l/s.
B. Pipe bursting at any level between Les Laures and Trapan dam
The tanks located upstream the burst can be supplied by gravity from
Les Laures. Downstream, the station must ensure the supply of the tanks
(and possible customers). In this case the pumping head is adjusted by the
variable speed drive.
SCP is the least expensive. This means that we fill the dam in winter and
we empty it in summer. The main problem which is opposed to turbine
permanently is that recycling would become impossible because the
turbined volume would be greater than the pumped volume. Moreover it is
held in the general study in order to optimize the energy generation the
pumping head is limited up to Golf Hôtel tank. Recycling is done then by
the various flows taken out the dam:
Turbine mode
Pumps mode
function of the rainfall and the evaporation losses each year in Trapan.
Pumping is done mainly towards the Golf Hôtel tank and possibly towards
the delivery point at La Môle when this asks for water.
When the flow must be pumped toward the two branches (Golf
Hôtel and La Môle), the basic solution is to maintain a constant water level
in the Golf Hôtel tank which is slightly higher in terms of system curve
than La Môle.
But we are then confronted with the supply of small possible flows
which would be asked by La Môle. When the high level of Golf Hôtel tank
is reached, the station stops and the difference in elevation between the
water level in Golf Hôtel and Gratteloup is too weak to guarantee the
supply of La Môle. The station not being able to provide a flow lower than
150 l/s, this simple operation is not a solution.
Another constraint is the pressure at Gratteloup: the latter is the
limiting factor for supply pipe flow between Trapan and La Môle. In the
case of the reinforcement of the flow of this pipe, the station will have to
maintain a minimum pressure at Gratteloup (1.0 bar).
The solution suggested is as follows. The principle is the
organization each summer an "emptying campaign" for Trapan,
corresponding to an approximate period of one month during which the
valve on the main pipe at point G (Figure 10.2) is closed (the connecting
point to Mont Redon tank). The upstream section to this valve is supplied
by gravity and the downstream section by the pumping station for only
Golf Hôtel tank. The interest is to limit the valve operation to one closing
and one opening per season, and surely to at least limit the pumping head to
the Golf Hôtel tank. The operation is as follow:
3- The study on the water quality in the dam brings more elements on the
validity of these hypotheses.
In spite of the absence of the results of the water quality study, the
various operating modes of the station are re-examined below by analyzing
their impact on the water quality.
• Turbine mode
• Pump mode
During the water pumping in summer, the level drops down regularly
to 48 m. The intake pipe must follow this drop. The intake level will be
optimized by taking into account the main water quality constraints in the
summer:
• Emergency mode
By turbining: bringing fresh water and its dissolved oxygen and thus:
-Reducing the manganese content.
-Limiting water temperature variations in every day.
Finally the considered operation in this case does not bring any
additional constraint in comparison to the normal pumping-turbining
operation exposed previously. We consider a simplified pumping-turbining
such that:
- It is not necessary to close all the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan to
optimize the turbining.
(a) (b)
Qtrapan Qtrapan
Nevertheless, we split the model in Figure 10.9 into two models; one
for the pump and the other for the turbine, and we will try to estimate the
power absorbed by the pump and the power recovered by the turbine under
normal operation conditions. We need to know the system water demands
and thus we use here the average demands (rounded up to the nearest ten)
recorded during the summer of 2005 as shown in Table 10.5:
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 272
And we added around thirty liters per second derived along the
mainline for the non-recorded demand. Also, we need to know the
electricity tariff. The electricity tariff used for development program and
the general study of hydraulic operation of “Toulon Est” will be used as in
Table 10.6. In fact, this tariff is only an informative one because the
electricity tariff for this project is not yet defined for the moment.
10.10.1 Pump-mode
(a)
(b)
Dead-end pipe
700,000 m 3 /year
× 15.57 MWhr/day ≈ 302.75 MWhr/year
36,000 m 3 /day
10.10.2 Turbine-mode
1,000,000 m 3 /year
× 15.50 MWhr/day ≈ 673.90 MWhr/year
23,000 m 3 /day
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 275
(a)
(b)
Dead-end pipe
We will consider another scenario for the turbine-mode such that the
tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are not isolate as shown in Figure
10.14. As before, we selected a good starting point and, however, no
optimal solution was found. Here, we did not add dead-end pipe but rather
the valve and the pipe, which are pointed out by the arrows as shown in
Figure 10.14, are switched round with each other, and then an optimal
solution was obtained.
In this scenario, the optimal “costs” were around 2.35 k€, and the
turbined water into Trapan dam was around 22,300 m3/day and the turbine
recovered power was around 14.60 MWhr/day, and thus the total power
recovered is:
1,000,000 m 3 /year
× 14.60 MWhr/day ≈ 654.70 MWhr/year
22,300 m 3 /day
And this is clearly less than the power recovered when the tanks
were isolated.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 276
Figure 10.14 : Toulon Est in turbine-mode and water tanks between Les
Laures and Trapan are not isolated
CHAPTER 11
11. Summary and Conclusions
11.1 Summary
the purpose of this study. Even though, this was not enough to fulfill
our needs since the pump and the turbine are physically the same unit
but in FINESSE they are modeled as two separated elements. Yet, the
usefulness of this software at SCP is doubtful.
Finally, since this research work comes within the framework of the
Franco-Jordanian technical cooperation the knowledge acquired in
this domain will be transferred when I go back to Jordan to improve
the situation of water distribution in the country that is one of the ten
countries most threatened by the water shortage in the world and is
facing a chronic imbalance in the water supply-demand equation. The
operating cost of urban water in a country, having semi-arid climate
and water resources limited and difficult to exploit, is very high.
13. References 281
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