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W a te r aqua ‫ء‬

‫ ﻣﺎ‬e a u aquo 水 ర പ യസ ് സ ്a g u a u m a e v a
a tl amanzi ‫ی‬‫ن‬‫ﺎ‬‫ ﭘ‬v a t n जल dour auga n eri a ‫آب‬
b a n y u y n i b i a k v o জলv e s i v a tte n y a ’ νερό a cq u a ర
aque agua vesi cai 물 ji น ํ

า u r su த ண

Archimedes

Pascal Newton Taylor Bernoulli

Mach Jacobi

Use of Hydraulic Modeling and


Simulation Software to Optimize the
Darcy Operation of Water Distribution Networks Laplace

Thesis submitted by
Emad Shudifat
In Fulfillment of the Requirements for
the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at:
French Institute of Forestry, Agricultural and
Environmental Engineering
( ENGREF-Montpellier- France )
Lagrange Reynolds

January 03, 2007

Venturi Euler

Gauss Hardy Cross Pitot Weisbach

âcu a á g u a čá h c i w e tte r b e e d o w r ilma a ig u a voda ‫װאַסער‬


w ai წყ
ალი पा
नीègua apă w atar t ó n îp îy tubig m aji ūd e n s
a ir W aasser w är d w fr d ja c u Fourier вода 'y vo' хи uisce Wasser
w oda av a ig a b iy o v íz w ara u jë u is g e a iv a nước ‫ים‬
‫מ‬
École Nationale Du Génie Rural Des Eaux et Des Forêts Société Du Canal De Provence
ENGREF – Montpellier SCP – Aix En Provence

MREA
Mission Régionale Eau-Agriculture
MREA – Amman – Jordanie

This PhD thesis submitted by:

Emad Shudifat
In Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at:

French Institute of Forestry, Agricultural, and Environmental Engineering


( ENGREF- Montpellier - France )
And it was orally defended in public on January 03, 2007 in the front of the following committee:

- Chairperson / Président :

- Supervisor / Directeur de thèse :

- Reviewer / Rapporteur :

- Examiner / Examinateur :

- Invitee / Invité :

i
Acknowledgements

Traditionally, acknowledgement is addressed only to persons whom


we have met in person and who helped us to carry out our research work.
But my first, and most earnest, acknowledgment must go to all scientists in
mathematics, in physics, and in hydraulics, such whom appear on the cover
page of this work, whom I did not meet in person but I will be ever
respectful for them and for their scientific heritage that they left behind
since hundreds and thousands of years, and this precious heritage is the
core of this thesis.
The greatest acknowledgement is addressed to MREA (Mission
Régionale Eaux-Agriculture, French Embassy-Amman-Jordan). I would
not have been able to accomplish or even start this thesis without the
support of MREA; in particular Mr. Rémy Courcier and Mlle. Alice
Arrighi de Casanova who have been instrumental in ensuring my academic,
professional, financial, and moral well being, and they deserve far more
credit than I can ever give them.
This work has been carried out during the years 2003–2006 at Canal
de Provence Company in France (SCP). I wish to heartily thank the former
for providing excellent facilities for both research and studying. I have
always considered it a privilege to have had the opportunity of pursuing my
Ph.D. at SCP. The time I have spent at the Engineering Division of SCP
has been very fruitful, extremely enriching. I want especially to thank M.
Pierre Rousset, M. Bruno Grawitz, M. Frédéric Bonnadier, M. Franck
Sanfilippo, and M. Georges Favreau for having always been there for me
and helped in most variable matters. Although I will not be able to
acknowledge all the people who have directly or indirectly helped me
during my work at SCP.
I would like to gratefully acknowledge the supervision of my advisor
Dr. Pierre-Olivier Malaterre during this work. He has given me constant
advice throughout this study and his encouraging comments have been
most valuable for me. I would also thank him for the reviewing of this
thesis with great effort.
I would also like to acknowledge Dr. Alain Delacourt who deserves
particular credit for his careful support and who started me on the path I
traveled during this thesis, and for his assistance with all types of
administrative problems - at all times. He has always treated me with trust
– and with patience, too.
I also owe a huge debt of gratitude to Dr. Bogumil Ulanicki, Dr.
Bryan Coulbeck, Dr. Peter Bounds and other friends from Water Software
Systems at De Montfort University, located in Leicester City in England,
who were instrumental in the success of my two visits to their university.
They are acknowledged for numerous stimulating and relevant discussions,

ii
and general advices throughout this study and teaching me how to use their
software FINESSE.
I want to thank several people from Agricultural and Environmental
Engineering Research Institute (Cemagref-Bordeaux) for the time that they
spent for me and for receiving me for one week to carry out some relevant
research work.
Dr. Jacques Sau, from University of Lyon I, is acknowledged for his
contribution and for interesting towards my studies. Many thanks go also to
the committee members.
Far too many people to mention individually have assisted in so
many ways during my work. They all have my sincere gratitude.
I am grateful to all my friends from Aix-En-Provence and
Montpellier Cities for being the surrogate family during the four years I
stayed in France and for their continued moral support there after. “My
Tunisians brothers” are especially thanked for the warm atmosphere.
A penultimate and sincere thank-you goes to my wonderful family. I
am very grateful to both of my parents for their love, support, and belief in
me, and never once complaining about how infrequently I visit in Jordan
while I was working on this study here in France.
My final, and most heartfelt, acknowledgment must go to “my wife”
whom I never even met nor found and, if she has been with me, she would
surely have had a knack for boosting my morale during rough times, and
she would have been acknowledged for her understanding, endless patience
and encouragement when it is most required. Her support, encouragement,
and companionship would have turned my journey through this thesis into
a pleasure. For all that, and for being everything I am not, she has my
everlasting love, and I dedicate this thesis to her.

iii
Abstract

The two major contradictory objectives of the operation management


of the water supply systems are security of water supply and minimizing
the water production and transportation costs. Optimization tools can help
to achieve these objectives. The efficient operation of water supply systems
is a fundamental issue for extending the system’s service life as much as
possible. Efficient operation requires knowledge of the system, supported
by necessary tools that play essential roles in the management optimization
of water supply systems. These tools are: modeling and simulation,
calibration, demand prediction, and SCADA system. In general, these four
mainstays represent the fundamental elements in the management
optimization problem of an existing water supply system, and they
constitute the core of this thesis.
Besides, this thesis, carried out at the Canal de Provence Company
(French: Société du Canal de Provence, SCP), shows a case-study for a
particular SCP’s water supply network, constituting the water supply
system “Les Laures - Trapan - La Môle” composed of the main supply pipe
of the same name and the sets of the derived storage tanks. This unit is
commonly called “Toulon Est”, where a development program is proposed
upon the decision of SCP to improve safety and reliability of the water
supplying service for the eastern zone of the region of Toulon City. The
program includes the construction of a reversible pump-turbine plant which
will be installed close to a dam called Trapan, of 2 Mm3 (million cubic
meter) in volume, and the construction of a new water tank at Col
Gratteloup. We will highlight in this thesis the problems of the
optimization and the management of the “Toulon Est” system, the Trapan
dam and the future pump-turbine plant.
For many years, design and projects have used computer modeling
programs, a trend that has been amplified by the development of computer-
assisted drawing and design. FINESSE, acronym of “Fully Integrated
Network Editing, Simulation, and Scheduling Environment”, a software of
modeling and “On Line” and “Real Time” simulation, developed by De
Montfort University (DMU-UK), enables the user to determine an optimal
operating schedule for pumps and valves for the whole operating horizon
(typically 24 hours). This software is the modeling and scheduling tools
that will be used in this research work.

iv
‰ Thesis objectives and organization

The objective of the thesis is to study the theoretical and practical


problems related to the use of computer simulation models and softwares to
optimize the operation of the pressurized water distribution and irrigation
networks. The theoretical bases of these softwares will be analyzed, and the
complementary modules necessary to their practical use will be developed
to meet the needs listed and expressed by the services of networks
management and operation. Moreover, we will highlight the problems of
the optimization of the management of the “Toulon Est” hydraulic system
and also Trapan dam and the future pump-turbine plant. Yet, we will recall
these objectives later.
In order to cover the major elements that play very important and
critical roles in the modeling and optimizing the operation and management
of pressurized water systems this thesis is organized in eleven chapters:

1. Chapter N° 1:
This chapter is an introduction to the water distribution and
management challenges and solutions where certain concepts are presented
such as, Water Utility Production Management System, Information
Technology (IT), Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering
(CIME).

2. Chapter N° 2:
In this chapter the thesis problematic, methodology, and objectives
are presented. The Canal de Provence Company and the eastern branch of
Toulon City’s network are also presented here.

3. Chapter N° 3:
This chapter is an introduction to the water distribution systems
hydraulic, modeling, and simulation. Their basics concepts, methodologies
and applications will be discussed.

4. Chapter N°4:
This chapter relates to the first mainstay of the optimization and
management of water networks that is the modeling softwares available in
the market, and also the softwares already used at SCP, and their
applications.

5. Chapter N°5:
This chapter is about the fundamental numerical methods for solving
water pipe networks problem.

v
6. Chapter N°6:
This chapter is an introduction to SCADA system, the second
mainstay of the optimization and management of water networks, and its
role and its integration in the “Real Time” modeling and simulation of the
water networks. The operation of SCADA system of SCP also will be
described.

7. Chapter N°7:
This chapter approaches the third mainstay of the optimization of
water networks; the process of the calibration of the hydraulic parameters
of the model: roughness and demand factor. The calibration of “Toulon
Est” network also will be presented.

8. Chapter N°8:
This chapter approaches the fourth mainstay of the optimization and
management of water networks; demand prediction. The theoretical base of
FINESSE module of demand prediction will be explained in detail and the
SCP’s demand prediction technique too.

9. Chapter N°9:
This chapter is concerned with the optimization of water distribution
network where the optimization terminologies, applications, and methods
will be presented, and the optimization method implemented in FINESSE
will be presented too.

10. Chapter N°10:


In this chapter the “Toulon Est” development program and the
reversible pump-turbine plant of Trapan dam and its optimization will be
covered.

11. Chapter N°11:


The last part of the thesis, it is the conclusions section where the
personal achievements, the objectives fulfillment and the future work
proposed are included.

vi
Acronyms

- ACF : Autocorrelation Function


- AIC : Aikake Information Criterion
- ANN : Artificial Neural Networks
- AR : AutoRegressive
- ARIMA : AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average
- ASCII : American Standard Code for Information Interchange
- BFM : Branch Flow Model
- CAD : Computer Aided Design
- CEMAGREF : Agricultural and Environmental Engineering
Research Institute-France
- CEO : Compagnie d’Eau et d’Ozone (English: Water and
Ozone Company)
- CGTC : Centre Général de Télé-Control (English: Control
Central)
- CIME : Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering
- CONOPT : Non-linear programming solver
- CRE : Centre Régional d’Exploitation (English: Regional
Operating Room)
- CSV : Comma Separated Value file format
- DAE : Differential Algebraic Equation
- DES : Double-Exponential Smoothing
- DMU : De Montfort University
- DP : Dynamic Programming
- EDF : Électricité De France (English: France’s Electricity
Company)
- EPS : Extended- Period Simulations
- ES : Evolutionary Strategy
- FAC : Free Available Chlorine

vii
- FCV : Flow Control Valve
- FEM : Finite Element methods
- FFT : Fast-Fourier-Transform
- FINESSE : Fully Integrated Network Editing, Simulation and
Scheduling Environment Software
- FPE : Final Prediction Error
- GA : Genetic Algorithm
- GAMS : General Algebraic Modeling System
- GIDAP : Graphical Interactive Demand Analysis and
Prediction
- GINAS : Graphical and Interactive program for Network
Analysis and Simulation for water distribution system
- GIS : Geographical Information System
- GRG : Generalized Reduced Gradient
- GSM : Global System for Mobile Communication
- GUI : Graphical User Interface
- HGL : Hydraulic Gradient Line
- HW : Holt-Winters method
- IEEE : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
- IP : Integer Programming problem
- IT : Information Technology
- LFM : Loop Flow Model
- LP : Linear Programming
- LTCCP : Long Term Council Community Plan
- MA : Moving-Average
- MAE : Mean Absolute Error
- MIP : Mixed Integer Programming problem
- MM : Mixed Model

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- MMI/HMI : Man Machine Interface/Human Machine Interface
- MRPE : Mean Relative Percentage Error
- MSE : Mean Squared Error
- MUX : Multiplexing
- NAS : Network Analysis Software
- NGF : Nivellement Général de la France (English: French
National Levelling)
- NLP : Non-Linear Programming
- NM : Nodal Model
- NPSHa : Available Net Positive Suction Head
- NPSHr : Required Net Positive Suction Head
- NRV : Non-Return Valve
- PACA : Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur
- PACF : Partial Autocorrelation Function
- PCV : Pressure Control Valve
- PRV : Pressure Reducing Valve
- PSV : Pressure Sustaining Valve
- RMINLP : Relaxed Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming
- RT : Remote Transmission
- RTU : Remote Terminal Units
- SBB : Simple Branch and Bound algorithm
- SCADA : Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition
- SCE : Shuffled Complex Evolution
- SCP : Société du Canal de Provence (English: Canal de
Provence Company)
- SES : Single-Exponential Smoothing
- SIDECM : Syndicat Intercommunal de Distribution d’Eau de la
Corniche des Maures (English: Water Distributing
Association of La Corniche des Maures)

ix
- TCV : Throttle Control Valve
- TES : Triple-Exponential Smoothing
- UK : United Kingdome
- VMS : Virtual Memory System operating system
- WAN : Wide Area Network
- WDMs : Water Distribution Models
- WDS : Water Distribution System
- WMA : Weighted Moving Average
- WSS : Water Software Systems

x
Table of Contents

Acknowledgements......................................................................................ii
Abstract ....................................................................................................... iv
Acronyms ...................................................................................................vii
Table of Contents .......................................................................................xi
List of Figures ............................................................................................ xv
List of Tables............................................................................................xvii

CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................. 1
1. Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions ... 1
1.1 Introduction................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Water utility production management system .............................................. 6
1.3 Information integration technology in water utilities ................................... 8
1.4 Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering, CIME ................... 10
1.5 Management and operational control of water supply and distribution
systems........................................................................................................ 13
1.6 Use computer model of water network systems ......................................... 15

CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................... 18
2. Thesis Problematic and Objectives .................................................. 18
2.1 Canal de Provence Company and needs for modeling tools ...................... 18
2.2 Thesis objectives......................................................................................... 20
2.3 Presentation of Canal de Provence Company (SCP) .................................. 22
2.4 Presentation of the “Toulon Est” water supply network............................. 25
2.5 Description of the existing hydraulic system of “Toulon East” ................. 25
2.6 Operation and hydraulic management ........................................................ 31
2.7 Water demand of the zone “Toulon Est” .................................................... 32
2.8 Development program of the zone “Toulon Est” ....................................... 33

CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................... 34
3. Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling .. 34
3.1 Anatomy of water distribution network system.......................................... 34
3.1.1 Source of water ................................................................................... 34
3.1.2 Customers of water ............................................................................. 34
3.1.3 Transport facilities .............................................................................. 35
3.1.4 System configurations......................................................................... 35
3.1.5 Solving network problems .................................................................. 37
3.2 Water distribution network system simulation ........................................... 37
3.3 Water distribution network system modeling............................................. 38
3.3.1 Application of models......................................................................... 38
3.3.2 Modeling process................................................................................ 40
3.3.3 Network model elements .................................................................... 43
3.3.4 Water quality modeling ...................................................................... 44
3.3.5 Model simplification (skeletonisation) ............................................... 44
3.3.6 Model calibration................................................................................ 45
3.3.7 Model maintenance............................................................................. 46

xi
3.4 Network water consumption....................................................................... 46
3.5 Network system security............................................................................. 47
3.6 Using SCADA system for hydraulic modeling .......................................... 49
3.7 Network optimization ................................................................................. 49

CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................... 50
4. Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares50
4.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 50
4.2 Market study for water distribution modeling softwares............................ 51
4.2.1 Market study aims............................................................................... 51
4.2.2 Market studies tasks............................................................................ 52
4.3 Identifying and analyzing competitor products .......................................... 53
4.3.1 Final product list ................................................................................. 53
4.3.2 Sources of Information ....................................................................... 53
4.3.3 Product information ............................................................................ 54
4.3.4 Omitted products................................................................................. 56
4.3.5 Developer information........................................................................ 59
4.3.6 Criteria ................................................................................................ 61
4.4 General conclusions.................................................................................... 68
4.5 Water distribution networks simulation and modeling softwares at the SCP.
.................................................................................................................... 69
4.6 FINESSE..................................................................................................... 70
4.7 EPANET Software...................................................................................... 76

CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................... 78
5. Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem..................... 78
5.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 78
5.2 Conceptual model of a water network ........................................................ 79
5.3 Fundamental mathematical model .............................................................. 80
5.4 Theoretical properties of the mathematical model ..................................... 88
5.5 Numerical methods ..................................................................................... 89
5.5.1 Hardy-Cross method ........................................................................... 89
5.5.2 Newton-Raphson method ................................................................... 90
5.5.3 Linear Theory method ........................................................................ 90
5.5.4 Finite Element Methods...................................................................... 90
5.5.5 Linear Graph theory............................................................................ 91
5.6 Extended-period simulation........................................................................ 91
5.7 FINESSE simulator (GINAS)..................................................................... 92

CHAPTER 6 ............................................................................................... 94
6. Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation ...... 94
6.1 Objectives of SCADA systems for water distribution network.................. 94
6.2 Components of a SCADA system .............................................................. 96
6.3 Data acquisition mechanisms...................................................................... 97
6.4 Types of SCADA data and SCADA data format ....................................... 98
6.5 Handling of data during SCADA failures and processing of data from the
field ............................................................................................................. 98
6.6 Responding to data problems and verifying data validity .......................... 99
6.7 Integrating SCADA systems and hydraulic models ................................. 100

xii
6.8 Description of SCADA systems at SCP (Canivet, 2002) ......................... 102
6.8.1 The equipments of the supervisor system......................................... 102
6.8.2 Description of the measuring chain of SCP...................................... 103
6.8.3 The measurements acquisition in real-time ...................................... 107
6.8.4 Measurements conciliation technique............................................... 108
6.9 Establishing link between FINESSE SCADA Gateway and CGTC
supervisor.................................................................................................. 108

CHAPTER 7 ............................................................................................. 112


7. Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model ............................ 112
7.1 Introduction............................................................................................... 112
7.2 Calibration approach................................................................................. 113
7.3 Calibration methods.................................................................................. 116
7.4 State estimation of water network ............................................................ 119
7.5 Observability and identifiability of water network................................... 120
7.6 Problem formulation for network calibration ........................................... 121
7.7 FINESSE for automatic network calibration ............................................ 123
7.8 Calibrating “Toulon Est” network ............................................................ 124
7.8.1 “EPAXL Calibrator” approach ......................................................... 124
7.8.2 Schematic diagram of the mainline of “Toulon Est” network.......... 127
7.8.3 Part#1: Single-period calibration ...................................................... 129
7.8.4 SCP’s Maintenance Division calibration tests.................................. 130
7.8.5 EPAXL Calibrator results................................................................. 132
7.8.6 Calibration results discussion ........................................................... 134
7.8.7 Part#2: Extended-period calibration ................................................. 142
7.8.8 Continuity equation........................................................................... 142
7.8.9 Extended-period calibration approach .............................................. 143
7.9 General discussion and conclusion ........................................................... 156

CHAPTER 8 ............................................................................................. 159


8. Demand Prediction .......................................................................... 159
8.1 Introduction............................................................................................... 159
8.2 Water demand prediction.......................................................................... 159
8.3 Prediction methodology and techniques ................................................... 164
8.4 Time series methods ................................................................................. 166
8.4.1 Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function
(PACF).............................................................................................. 167
8.4.2 Simple autoregressive models .......................................................... 168
8.4.3 Simple moving-average models........................................................ 169
8.4.4 Simple Box-Jenkins ARMA model .................................................. 170
8.4.5 ARIMA model .................................................................................. 171
8.4.6 Box-Jenkins Model Identification .................................................... 171
8.4.7 Smoothing methods .......................................................................... 173
8.5 Evaluating the accuracy of forecasting ..................................................... 175
8.6 Forecasting softwares ............................................................................... 176
8.7 Water demand prediction technique at SCP ............................................. 178
8.8 Daily demand prediction technique implemented in FINESSE software. 181
8.9 Comparison between short-term water demand forecasting techniques for
water supply networks - case study : “Toulon Est” network system........ 186

xiii
8.9.1 Approach........................................................................................... 186
8.9.2 Comparison of the prediction results ................................................ 197
8.9.3 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 205

CHAPTER 9 ............................................................................................. 206


9. Optimization of Water Distribution Networks............................. 206
9.1 Introduction............................................................................................... 206
9.2 Optimization terminology......................................................................... 207
9.3 The Optimization process ......................................................................... 208
9.4 Water distribution networks optimization ................................................ 209
9.5 Applications of optimization in water distribution networks ................... 211
9.6 Optimization methods............................................................................... 212
9.7 FINESSE scheduler for optimal operational scheduling .......................... 216
9.7.1 Mathematical principles and problem formulation........................... 216
9.7.2 Transformation of the network scheduling problem into a non-linear
programming problem ...................................................................... 219
9.7.3 The equation-oriented programming language................................. 220
9.7.4 Selection of a starting point .............................................................. 222
9.7.5 Continuous relaxation of the network scheduling problem .............. 222
9.7.6 Solution approaches to integer programming problems (IP)............ 224
9.7.7 Discretization by post-processing of continuous solution ................ 229
9.7.8 Remarks on GAMS/CONOPT Solver for optimal operational
scheduling ......................................................................................... 237

CHAPTER 10 ........................................................................................... 241


10. Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant
of Trapan Dam ..................................................................................... 241
10.1 Introduction............................................................................................... 241
10.2 Optimization of pumping stations at SCP................................................. 242
10.3 The Pump – Turbine plant of Trapan........................................................ 243
10.4 Gratteloup water tank................................................................................ 246
10.5 Piping and fittings..................................................................................... 246
10.6 Electrical equipments................................................................................ 251
10.7 Operating points of pump-turbine plant.................................................... 251
10.8 NPSH (Net Positive Suction Head) .......................................................... 261
10.9 Reversible pump-turbine plant: operation principles and scenarios......... 262
10.10 Reversible pump-turbine plant scheduling using FINESSE Pump Scheduler
(CONOPT/GAMS) .................................................................................. 269
10.10.1 Pump-mode................................................................................... 272
10.10.2 Turbine-mode................................................................................ 274

CHAPTER 11 ........................................................................................... 277


11. Summary and Conclusions ........................................................... 277
11.1 Summary................................................................................................... 277
11.2 General conclusions.................................................................................. 278

References................................................................................................. 281

xiv
List of Figures

Figure 1.1 : Production management system.................................................................... 7


Figure 1.2 : WaterCIME methodology ........................................................................... 11
Figure 1.3 : CIME pyramid............................................................................................. 12
Figure 1.4 : Mainstays of optimization........................................................................... 17
Figure 2.1 : General sight of Canal de Provence ............................................................ 24
Figure 2.2 : General sight of “Toulon Est” water supply network ................................. 25
Figure 2.3 : Point A – Les Laures................................................................................... 26
Figure 2.4 : Point C – Pierrascas tank............................................................................. 27
Figure 2.5 : Point F – Fenouillet tank ............................................................................. 27
Figure 2.6 : Point G – Mont Redon tank......................................................................... 28
Figure 2.7 : Point H – Golf Hôtel tank ........................................................................... 28
Figure 2.8 : Point M – La Môle ...................................................................................... 28
Figure 2.9 : Hydraulic profile of Toulon Est network .................................................... 29
Figure 2.10 : Point T – Trapan dam................................................................................ 30
Figure 3.1 : Looped and branched networks................................................................... 36
Figure 3.2 : Looped and branched networks after network failure................................. 36
Figure 3.3 : Major points of vulnerability in a water supply system .............................. 47
Figure 4.1 : FINESSE architecture ................................................................................. 71
Figure 4.2 : FINESSE interface ...................................................................................... 76
Figure 5.1 : Conceptual model........................................................................................ 79
Figure 6.1 : Generic SCADA system network ............................................................... 97
Figure 6.2 : Architecture of SCADA communication at SCP ...................................... 104
Figure 6.3 : Schema of data conciliation algorithm...................................................... 109
Figure 6.4 : “Telemetric Link” between FINESSE and CGTC/SCP supervisor ......... 111
Figure 7.1 : Calibration approach for pipe roughness .................................................. 128
Figure 7.2 : Schematic diagram of the mainline of “Toulon Est” network .................. 129
Figure 7.3 : ε_values computed by EPAXL ................................................................. 134
Figure 7.4 : Differences between ε_values of Test#1 and Test#2 ................................ 136
Figure 7.5 : Differences between ε_values of SCP and EPAXL.................................. 138
Figure 7.6 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#1 .............. 140
Figure 7.7 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#2 .............. 141
Figure 7.8 : Hourly total water demand – Toulon Est, Year 2005 ............................... 143
Figure 7.9 : Differences between system inflows and outflows ................................... 143
Figure 7.10 : Colebrook vs. simplified friction factor equations.................................. 144
Figure 7.11 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe A-B ............................................................................. 145
Figure 7.12 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe B-C ............................................................................. 146
Figure 7.13 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe C-E ............................................................................. 146
Figure 7.14 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe E-F.............................................................................. 147
Figure 7.15 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe F-G ............................................................................. 147
Figure 7.16 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe G-H............................................................................. 148
Figure 7.17 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe H-K............................................................................. 148
Figure 7.18 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point B......................................... 152
Figure 7.19 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point C......................................... 152
Figure 7.20 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point E......................................... 153
Figure 7.21 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point F ......................................... 153
Figure 7.22 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point G ........................................ 154
Figure 7.23 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point H ........................................ 154
Figure 7.24 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point K ........................................ 155

xv
Figure 7.25 : Calculated delta’s values (Δ)................................................................... 155
Figure 7.26 : Comparison between the ε_values .......................................................... 156
Figure 8.1 : Example of demand prediction at SCP – Toulon Est – 2006.................... 180
Figure 8.2 : GIPAD’s demand prediction stages .......................................................... 182
Figure 8.3 : Example of original vs. smoothed demand - Year 2002 ........................... 187
Figure 8.4 : Measured demand and the periodogram ................................................... 188
Figure 8.5 : Autocorrelation function of demand series ............................................... 193
Figure 8.6 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2002 .................... 194
Figure 8.7 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2003 .................... 195
Figure 8.8 : Autocorrelation function of residual ......................................................... 196
Figure 8.9 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2002 ........................................... 199
Figure 8.10 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2003 ......................................... 200
Figure 8.11 : Prediction methods comparison – July 31, 2003..................................... 201
Figure 8.12 : Measured and predicted demand (July 31, 2003) ................................... 202
Figure 8.13 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2004 ......................................... 203
Figure 8.14 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2005 ......................................... 204
Figure 9.1 : Optimization process................................................................................. 207
Figure 9.2 : Discretization by valve aperture adjustment ............................................. 230
Figure 9.3 : Valve adjustment approach ....................................................................... 231
Figure 9.4 : Discretization by pump speed adjustment................................................. 232
Figure 9.5 : Pump speed adjustment approach ............................................................. 234
Figure 9.6 : Timestep adjustment approach.................................................................. 236
Figure 9.7 : Network configuration example 1............................................................. 237
Figure 9.8 : Network configuration example 2............................................................. 238
Figure 10.1 : Hydraulic characteristics of the pump - turbine unit............................... 245
Figure 10.2 : Hydraulic profile of Toulon Est network ................................................ 248
Figure 10.3 : 900mm-pipeline profile connecting the station to Trapan ...................... 249
Figure 10.4 : 700mm-pipeline profile connecting the station and the supply pipe ...... 249
Figure 10.5 : General view of the project ..................................................................... 250
Figure 10.6 : Turbine operating points ......................................................................... 253
Figure 10.7 : Operation of the Trapan pumping station at different conditions ........... 260
Figure 10.8 : NPSH – Toulon Est pumping station ...................................................... 262
Figure 10.9 : FINESSE model for “Toulon Est” .......................................................... 271
Figure 10.10 : Pumping and turbining in the same time............................................... 271
Figure 10.11 : Toulon Est in pump-mode under normal operation .............................. 273
Figure 10.12 : Pump control – Pump optimal continuous solution .............................. 273
Figure 10.13 : Toulon Est in turbine-mode under normal operation ............................ 275
Figure 10.14 : Toulon Est in turbine-mode and water tanks between Les Laures and
Trapan are not isolated.................................................................................................. 276

xvi
List of Tables

Table 2.1 : Characteristics of the submain pipelines ...................................................... 27


Table 3.1 : Types of problems that could be analyzed by modeling .............................. 39
Table 3.2 : Network Data................................................................................................ 42
Table 3.3 : Demand Data ................................................................................................ 43
Table 3.4 : Operational Data........................................................................................... 43
Table 3.5 : Common network modeling elements.......................................................... 43
Table 4.1 : General software information and features .................................................. 69
Table 7.1 : Description of hydraulic measurements of “Toulon Est”........................... 129
Table 7.2 : Flow measurements during Test#1_SCP.................................................... 130
Table 7.3 : Calibration results for Test#1_SCP ............................................................ 131
Table 7.4 : Flow measurements during Test#2_SCP.................................................... 131
Table 7.5 : Calibration results for Test#2_SCP ............................................................ 131
Table 7.6 : Calibration results for Test#1_EPAXL ...................................................... 133
Table 7.7 : Calibration results for Test#2_EPAXL ...................................................... 133
Table 7.8 : Calibration results for Test#1 and Test#2_EPAXL................................... 134
Table 7.9 : Differences between ε_SCP#1 and ε_SCP#2............................................. 135
Table 7.10 : Differences between ε_ EPAXL#1 and ε_ EPAXL#2 ............................. 136
Table 7.11 : Difference between ε_SCP#1 and ε_EPAXL#1....................................... 137
Table 7.12 : Difference between ε_SCP#2 and ε_EPAXL#2....................................... 137
Table 7.13 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#1 ............. 140
Table 7.14 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#2 ............. 141
Table 7.15 : Results for linear regression parameters estimation - 2005...................... 145
Table 7.16 : Calibration results for equation inversion ................................................ 150
Table 7.17 : Results for EPAXL Calibrator - 2005 ...................................................... 151
Table 7.18 : Summary of ε_values for calibration 2005 and 2006.............................. 156
Table 8.1 : Alpha setting for SES ................................................................................. 190
Table 8.2 : Alpha setting for TES ................................................................................. 191
Table 8.3 : Parameter estimation .................................................................................. 197
Table 8.4 : Results - 2002 ............................................................................................. 199
Table 8.5 : Results - 2003 ............................................................................................. 200
Table 8.6 : Results - July 31, 2003 ............................................................................... 201
Table 8.7 : Results - 2004 ............................................................................................. 203
Table 8.8 : Results - 2005 ............................................................................................. 204
Table 10.1 : Optimal operating points .......................................................................... 244
Table 10.2 : Pumping to Les Laures ............................................................................ 255
Table 10.3 : Pumping to Les Laures ............................................................................ 255
Table 10.4 : Pumping to Gratteloup............................................................................. 257
Table 10.5 : Pumping to Gratteloup............................................................................. 257
Table 10.6 : Pumping to Golf Hôtel ............................................................................ 259
Table 10.7 : Pumping to Golf Hôtel ............................................................................ 259
Table 10.8 : 2005 Summer Demand for Toulon Est..................................................... 272
Table 10.9 : EDF Electricity tariff (€/kWhr) ................................................................ 272

xvii
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 1

CHAPTER 1
1. Water Distribution and Management
Challenges and Solutions

1.1 Introduction

Human life, as with all animal and plant life on the planet, is
dependent upon water. Not only do we need water to grow our food,
generate our power and run our industries, but we need it as a basic part of
our daily lives; our bodies need to ingest water every day to continue
functioning. Communities and individuals can exist without many things if
they have to; they can be deprived of comfort, of shelter, even of food for a
period, but they can not be deprived of water and survive for more than a
few days. Because of the intimate relationship between water and life,
water is woven into the fabric of all cultures, religions and societies in
many ways (Gleick, 1999).
Water and civilization, two terms historically associated. The first
civilizations appeared by the big rivers (Gleick, 1999). The flowing waters
of the Euphrates, the Nile, the Indus and the Yangtze were silent witnesses
of the human settlements along their banks and the flourishing of their
culture. They switched from subsistence agriculture to organized farming
in a short time. Water can be social, economic, private and public good.
Water is important to the process of economic development improving both
individual and social well being. It is essential for life and health and has
cultural and religious significance (Suleiman, 2002).
Access to basic water requirements is a fundamental right implicitly
supported by international law, declarations and state practices. This right
is even more basic than other explicit human rights as can be seen by its
recognition in some local traditional laws or religious norm (Gleick, 1999).
The holly Quran for instance, says that “And we made from water every
living thing”. This forthright statement explicitly correlates water with life
(Suleiman, 2002).
The world-wide consumption of the last century has increased seven
folds. In the last half of the XX century the answer to this increase in the
demand was basically the construction of more and larger hydraulic
infrastructures, especially reservoirs and canals for deviating rivers. More
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 2

than 85% of the 40,000 reservoirs built in the world have been constructed
in the last 35 years (Pérez, 2003). Such engineering works have guaranteed
the supply of water to great urban and rural areas but have, in the opinion
of ecologists, led to the degradation of the fluvial deltas and increased the
risk of extinction of some species in wetland areas.
Nobody can ignore the fact that it is not possible to satisfy a demand
without limit with a permanent increase of the offer of a commodity that
has ecological, physical and economic limitations. As the most accessible
sources of water are exhausted new resources are obtained in an
increasingly complicated and hence more expensive way. This leads to a
worse quality of the resource and the necessity of a new culture of water
usage based on a more rational and sustainable use of this valuable
resource (Pérez, 2003).
The challenge is to spend less and more efficiently. To guarantee a
sufficient supply of water does not in itself suffice to solve the distribution
problems. It is necessary to continue conserving water. This is a broad
concept that includes all those techniques orientated to help in the saving
and better management of this liquid (UNICEF, 2000).
Such techniques include the modernization and rehabilitation of the
networks to minimize leakage. This is a problem that affects not only the
urban centers where 30% of the water that enters the network does not get
to its destiny at the consumption points but also the watering
infrastructures. Installation of low consumption devices nowadays allows
savings of 50% without losing quality in the service. There are models of
taps, showers and toilets with such improved efficiency. Wastewater can be
reused after a good process of depuration. Education campaigns are crucial
for saving water and the introduction of new tariffs can stimulate such
savings (UNICEF, 2000). The contamination of both surface water (rivers
become increasingly polluted as they pass by cities and industrial areas)
and ground water (polluted by nitrates, heavy metals and organic
components and affected by salinization) should be reduced.
Water provision can not be separated from two other inter-related
factors - sanitation and health. This is because one of the primary causes of
contamination of water is the inadequate or improper disposal of human
(and animal) excreta. This often leads to a cycle of infection and
contamination that remains one of the leading causes of illness and death in
the developing world.
Drinking water quality is not an objective any more but an obligation
(Pérez, 2003). Access to clean water is fundamental to survival and critical
for reducing the prevalence of many water related diseases. For centuries,
Europe had to cope with plagues and epidemics unaware of their origin. In
1854 in London, during a cholera epidemic, Dr John Snow discovered that
the means of dissemination of this disease was water. He treated the water
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 3

with chlorine and it eradicated the disease. After this experience the
temporary treatment of water with chlorine began, first in the United
Kingdom and afterwards in the United States becoming generalized at the
beginning of the 20th century. It brought about the reduction of diseases
such as Hepatitis A, Cholera and Typhus. The purification of water with
chlorine has been the sanitary measure that has saved most lives in the last
century.
In addition, the provision of safe drinking water and proper
sanitation has the greatest overall impact upon national development and
public health. 1.1 billion people in the world are still without some form of
improved water supply, 2.4 billion live without adequate sanitation and 5
million people a year, of mostly children under age 5, die from illnesses
linked to unsafe water, unclean domestic environments and improper
sanitation (UNICEF, 2000).
The modern treatment stations use slow filtration systems that
reproduce the conditions of the riverbeds. The European legislation defines
three types of water depending on which treatment it undergoes. This
ranges from the simplest physical treatment and disinfecting to the most
sophisticated physical and chemical treatment and disinfecting. Now in the
quick filtration plants water undergoes treatment that includes different
phases: caption, mixing with coagulating and reactive substances,
decantation and sand separation, flocculation, sedimentation, filtration, and
disinfecting. This procedure may last five hours and some new tools have
been added. These technologies allow the fulfillment of the quality
standards. Active carbon (produced by the combustion in special and
controlled conditions of organic substances) that presents a big exposed
area can trap by absorption suspended particles and dissolved substances.
The disinfecting process using Ozone is very efficient but is more
expensive than the use of chlorine. Inverse osmosis uses membranes to
separate dissolved salts. In general solar technologies applied to the
purification of water are only useful for water with low contamination.
Desalination of water is the other choice to increase the availability
of water instead of reusing residual water. It is a perfectly viable solution
from a technological point of view. The problem is the high cost of the
technology. Nevertheless the latest advances in this technology and the
introduction of inverse osmosis have decreased the energetic cost. The cost
seems to be decreasing and the supporters of this technology believe that
soon this water will be cheaper. On the other hand the energy needed is a
great drawback for obtaining a sustainable supply of water by this method.
Although the chemical purification methodologies guarantee that the
water that comes from the taps is all right from the sanitary point of view in
the last few years the consumption of bottled water has increased
spectacularly. This happens despite consumers having to pay between 500
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 4

and 1,000 times more for this water than that in the public network, and
that in more than 50% of cases this bottled water has the same quality as
the tap water except for some salts and aggregated minerals. Consumption
of bottled water increases in the world by 7% each year (WHO, 2001). The
reason has to be found in the fact that consumers do not like tap water,
sometimes because it has a disagreeable taste or odor or sometimes because
it can appear white color.
Aware of this problem the distribution companies have started plans
to determine and increase the quality of the water offered to their
customers. For example the Societat General d’Aigües de Barcelona
(Agbar), in collaboration with the French Society Lyonaise des Eaux and
the North American Water Works Association Research, has developed a
system to quantify the color, taste and odor of the drinking water. If there is
any case in which one of these characteristics becomes unpleasant the
causes are discovered and corrected. For this purpose there are some
professionals that can detect 30 different tastes and smells in the water like
the ones who work with wine. Typical tastes of chlorine, humid soil,
metallic, cooked vegetable or the classical acid, sweet, salt and bitter can
define the water. After the taste process the chemical analysis allows the
detection of substances that produce such problems and the water can be
treated adequately.
Unlike other sectors, water sector is the closest approximation to the
ideal “natural monopoly” of economic texts (OECD, 1998). The required
infrastructure is costly and specialized. Therefore, duplication by potential
competitors would be prohibitive. As a consequence, one can not count on
competition to maintain reasonable prices and levels of services. Although
privatization does not work magic in the public area, experience has
approved that it is quite successful in those industries where technology is
flexible in the sense of permitting multicompany use of facilities. In the
water sector, the natural monopoly problem has not been overcome and
unless, there is a competitive market, private sector involvement will not be
able to offer the potential efficiency gains.
Actually what is apparent after all these facts is that the water that is
consumed is cheap but the solutions to guarantee its availability and quality
are not. The reality is that water is a limited resource and should be treated
not just as a social commodity, but an economical one too. Citizens should
use water in the most efficient way and pay for the real cost of this precious
resource. The Worldwatch Institute estimates that only 15% of the real cost
is paid, a fact which does not encourage water conservation (Suleiman,
2002).
Careful usage as recommended by experts should be supported by
different initiatives. Specific legislation and recommendations for the
population about this necessity would help avoid wastage. The adoption of
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 5

financial incentives would stimulate the substitution (for uses that do not
require high quality water) of the potable water with that coming from the
regeneration of residual waters. The objective of these programs would be
the adjustment of the resource to the demands in order to liberate high
quality flows to the most appropriate uses. It is not sensible to use potable
water to water the plants, wash the car, or clean the streets.
Managing water as economic good means that water will be
allocated among competitive users in a way that maximize the net benefit
from the amount of water (OECD, 1998). As a result, the cost of water
should consider the full economic cost including the opportunity cost. This
may cause poor people to be priced out of the market leaving them without
adequate social good. The recognition of the economic character of the
water was associated with the existence of the water market but, it has not
been clear so far how practically, to achieve the rights balance between
managing water as both a social and economic good.
International human rights law recognizes that without access to
adequate water, it is not possible to attain many other explicit rights, such
as life, health, education, gender equity, and adequate standards of livings.
Some women in Ghana have correlated lack of water with lack of dignity
and even sometimes violence in the home under the growing emphasis on
the market to manage water supply, certainly, and if the market fail to
provide the water basic requirements, it is the responsibility of the state to
meet these needs under the human right agreements. At the World Water
Forum in The Hague, it was the subject of heated debate, with the World
Bank and the water companies seeking to have it declared as a human need
that is not semantic. If water is a human need, it can be provided by the
private sector while if it is a human right, it can not be sold. Water is not
simply a handout or a market commodity that can be priced through
contractual agreement. A human rights perspective demands authentic
popular consultation and participation in decisions affecting the production
and distribution of water (UNICEF, 2000).
The problem outlined in the previous paragraphs affects all of
society. Some of the solutions suggested so far depend on the customers,
others depend on the governments, and some depend on production
companies and some on the distribution companies. Distribution of water
also presents some challenges. Distribution has improved in the last century
although it existed in ancient civilizations.
The quality control of the water that flows through the network is an
obligation nowadays. The physical conditions of the water offered to the
customers are an objective of all the distribution companies. It is necessary
to assure a pressure of water and a reliability of the service so that people,
industry, hostelry, hospitals and all of society can trust in a basic service.
Another important aspect already mentioned is the huge quantity of water
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 6

that disappears in the network before it reaches its target.


A knowledge allowing an understanding of what happens in a water
utility is indispensable for any quality certification, as the quality concept
has more to do with the reliability of the data and assertion than to improve
an unknown level. This knowledge is useful to correct any failure in the
process or to improve its functioning. This knowledge is provided by
control and supervision of the process. In a distribution network such
supervision uses the data-loggers distributed in the network where the
communications are often by radio due to the remote location of these
measures, informatics applications that show the working state of the
network, and some decision tools, depending on the water utility, that help
the human operators. Control and supervision of processes are part of the
Water Utility Production Management System described hereafter.

1.2 Water utility production management system

The term “water utility” covers all forms of organization directly


responsible for managing parts of water cycle (WaterCIME, 1994). The
term “production management” system covers the engineering activities
required to run a water system. Examples of such activities include
operational control, maintenance and planning design and construction
(Figure 1.1). The activities include tasks which are automated and/or
performed by people. The European Union contains diversity of
organizational types and national legal frameworks. Despite this diversity,
the essential missions of water utilities are similar, and it is not surprising
that similar categories of activities are found in every water utility, for
example, operational control, planning design and construction,
maintenance, water quality analysis, finance, personnel management,
costumer services, etc (Eureau, 1993).
The existence of common objectives and activities creates the
possibility of generalized methods of analyzing utilities, just as there are
generalized methods for analyzing hydraulic networks. In the ideal utility,
its mission decomposed into hierarchy of objectives with corresponding
activities which co-operate to achieve the utility’s objectives.
The management of water system can be characterized as a process
control and transport problem. Water management systems typically
consist of distributed structures and works, having relatively high levels of
instrumentations, controls and automation, which are interconnected by
transport networks having lower levels. Dynamic information is exchanged
with the water system via the supervisory system. The water system is also
described by more or less static information in asset databases. An
operator’s view of the water system is usually limited to this information
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 7

(WaterCIME, 1995).
Some of the problems associated with water utility production
management system are:

1. Information distributed in time, space and according to the


departmental and hierarchical organization.
2. Information may be inconsistent, out of date and inaccessible.
3. The net effect of the complex mixture of human and automated
activities, each having localized objectives, is not generally
efficient overall.
4. There are difficulties in communication owing to different
protocol and understanding.
5. Much staff-time is spent on data gathering, checking and
processing.
6. It is difficult to understand the overall effect of introducing
reorganized and new systems.

Planning
Design and Maintenance
Construction

Water Utility Production


Management System

Operational Customer
Control Services

Figure 1.1 : Production management system

Therefore, organizing and improving production management system


is a complex and challenging task, because it is often complex with many
activities distributed in time and space. Activities are also distributed across
department and the management hierarchy. Activities can be viewed as
information producers and costumers. Information must be exchanged for
the utility to work in an efficient and coordinated way. Also, information is
distributed and exists in different paper-based and computerized forms.
However, the water utilities are trying to achieve greater efficiencies from
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 8

the use of complex and more integrated Information Technology Systems


IT (WaterCIME, 1995). The role of Information Integration is to enable
and make utility activities more efficient.

1.3 Information integration technology in water utilities

As mentioned here above, Information is distributed across a water


utility in different departments and geographical locations. It is also
distributed vertically according to management level (Buxton, 1996). This
distribution, and the use of different computer and paper-based information
systems cause difficulties when ensuring that shared information is up to
date, correct and consistent. Different activities require and produce
information in different forms.
In general, information is aggregated and abstracted through the
different management levels, requiring information processing, much of
which is trivial and repetitive. Much staff-time is spent on relatively simple
data acquisition, gathering, checking and processing tasks, which is time
consuming, costly and reduce the time available for data analysis. Many of
these data processing tasks could be automated. The degree of automation
is a matter of utility management strategy. Some activities can be fully or
partially automated (Rance, 1999).
However, computers are unable to abstract and conceptualize and
can not handle incomplete and ill-defined description, and some activities
can not be automated. A computerized system stores and manipulates data.
It carries out many complex tasks and accurately executes complex
formally-specified procedures such as calculating the optimal schedule for
a supply network. A computer can perform a number of unrelated tasks
simultaneously which a single person would find impossible. In particular,
a computer has an extensive and accurate short-term and long-term
memory. Data storage and access is currently the major role in water
utilities which are commissioning large information management systems
such as Geographical Information System (GIS). Communication networks
provide the ability to exchange and share information quickly across a
distributed utility. Placing existing utility information into a common data
store can impose formal constraints, such as the identification of unique
name for certain items in order to access the data store effectively.
Information integration means the consistent linking of computer
systems, its general objective is to provide timely, reliable and relevant
information to perform activities and make decisions. This usually involves
the use of digital computer systems which is the dominant technology for
information storage, retrieval and processing. However, the efficient
exploitation of this technology requires the use of systematic analytical and
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 9

planning methods. The main problems in achieving information integration


arise from organizational complexity, organizational change, and in
managing the introduction of new technology and existing systems (Brunel
Uni., 1997).
In practice, information integration often occurs gradually by
evolution under the pressure of different forces. Competition and
regulatory pressures drive water companies to address particular aspects of
the business such as asset management, leakage reduction, and costumer
service. Computer technology develops rapidly and offers new tools for
companies to improve efficiency. There are different levels of integration
and different interpretations of integration (Rance, 1999):

1. Separate databases and applications implemented to support


specific aspect of the business such as asset management,
operational control, and customer service. Examples include
Geographical Information System (GIS), Supervisory Control
And Data Acquisition (SCADA), Asset maintenance databases,
and customer billing system. Many companies are implementing
such databases as the primary source of information about these
aspects of the business. The philosophy is to assemble all
relevant information about a particular aspect in one database,
and thereafter to maintain and use this database as the primary
source of information.

2. Interconnected databases and applications are required by some


activities. For example, the management of leakage requires
information which is typically stored in the asset and operational
control databases. Some companies have developed specialized
software interfaces to extract and process the required
information, and to exchange it across computer networks. Such
interfaces are specialized to the requirements of a particular
activity. There are standards and products which facilitate the
development of such interfaces.

3. The company – wide integration of information system requires a


systematic analytical approach and planning method. Information
integration proceeds through the theoretical analysis of the
operation of a company and the development of a migration plan
which takes into account the investment in existing systems and
the improvement opportunity within the company. Such an
approach can lead to the improvement in the operation of the
company as a whole. It may involve changing some working
practices.
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 10

Most companies have achieved successes at level 1 and 2. Although,


coherent plans and policies toward fully integrated information systems are
uncommon in the water industry at present, many companies are now
considering the issue. The task of designing an information integration
system is quite complex and time consuming process. This has led some
manufacturing industries (which have activities and products families in
common with water utilities) to develop general models or references as
guides that defines a general methodology for information integration
problem, and for developing and trying out practical, open and
evolutionary solutions. This subject had been studied during a European
project called “WaterCIME” (1995). “WaterCIME” project consortium
consists of, Alcatel TITN Answare (France), AspenTech-CIMTECH
(Belgium), Daimler-Benz Aerospace (Germany), De Montfort University
(UK), Instituut voor Agrotechnologisch Onderzoek (Netherlands), Bremer
Entsorgungs-Betriebe (Germany), Société Canal de Provence (France), and
the Société Wallonne des Distribution d’Eau (Belgium). It belongs to the
European research program ESPRIT relating to information technologies. It
has for the base the concept CIME “Computer Integrated Manufacturing
and Engineering” that already largely used in other industrial field. The
consortium of

1.4 Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering, CIME

Much work has been performed on the cooperation of computer-


based engineering activities in the manufacturing industry. The task of
designing a computer integrated manufacturing system is complex and time
consuming (WaterCIME, 1995). The CIME methodology, developed by
some manufacturing industries, helps to plan, design and operate
manufacturing enterprise, and it is particularly suited to engineering
organizations. CIME models are verbal and graphical descriptions of the
overall process of CIME development and implementation. Also, water
utilities share some common problems with electrical power and gas
industries. Results arising from these industries are also relevant to water
industry. The CIME concepts were adapted to the water domain
(WaterCIME, 1995).
The mission of WaterCIME project is to develop open water
management systems. As a step toward achieving this, the consortium of
this project developed the WaterCIME methodology. It was developed
from the experience of the partners and drawing from working
manufacturing industries to address the problem of information integration
in “water production management systems”, a term used to cover the
activities required to run a water system. Four groups of activities are
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 11

identified in the production management system: operational control,


maintenance, planning design and construction, and costumer services. The
groups include tasks which are automated and/or performed by people. The
methodology treats activities as information procedures and consumers.
Hierarchical models of the system are built; the modeling enables the
rational identification of improvement opportunities. The outputs of the
methodology include models of the existing and improved company, and a
migration plan and cost/benefit analysis (WaterCIME, 1995).
The essence of the methodology is to produce a full model of the
existing production management system, called “As-Is” model. The model
building process reveals potential improvement to the system. This and
other knowledge is used to construct another full model capturing the
improvement opportunities, called “To-Be” model. The CIME
methodology is supported by the Reference Model (Figure 1.2) which is a
generalized example used to help derive the specific models. The
Reference Model includes the following sub-models, providing successive
layers of abstraction:

1. Reference Objectives and Constrain Model.


2. Reference Decision Model.
3. Reference Information Model.
4. Reference Information System.

The Reference Objective and Constrain Model describe general


water utility objectives. These are transformed into the Reference Decision
Model, which is hierarchical model of activities and associated information
flows between the activities. The information flows are decomposed into an
object-oriented data model called the Reference Information Model. This
model aggregates these data objects and utility functions into the elements
of a computerized information system.
WaterCIME Methodology Real
Organization
Step by Step AS-IS
Reference Approach
Model Utility

As Is To Be TO-BE
Plan Assess
Model Model Utility

Figure 1.2 : WaterCIME methodology

Generally speaking, any production management system can be


divided into management levels, each level bringing together distinct
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 12

elements so as to form a homogenous whole containing the same


functionality. This division is commonly called the CIME pyramid (Figure
1.3).
The means brought into operation at each of the levels of the CIME
pyramid are different. At each level, there are functions some of which are
executed using software.

Company
Level 5 Management

Factory
Management
Level 4
Process
Level 3 Management

Process
Level 2 Supervision

Process
Control
Level 1
Sensors / Actuators
Level 0
Figure 1.3 : CIME pyramid
‰ Level 0 - Sensors/Actuators

Contains the whole of the sensors and actuators. It is the one closet
to the process, the function of this level enables the development of the
process to be followed and guided. At this level, process information is
taken up toward level 1. Typically, we will find at this level motors,
pressure sensors, and meters…

‰ Level 1- Process Control

Corresponds to the management of the part of a facility (pumping


station, reservoir, water tower…). At this level we find a control and
operating system of the programmable automatic device type piloting the
facility in real time. The absence of permanent communications between
this level and the upper levels, means that interesting information is
temporary stored with a view to its future repatriation.

‰ Level 2- Process Supervision

This level manages a group of equipments which has to ensure a


1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 13

function or a group of clearly defined functions, such as pumping and


storage. It is in charge of the management of alarms, monitoring of the
process through animated supervision screen, filling of process data,
creation of production reports, and the transmission of input or orders to
level-1 equipment. It corresponds to process daily management activities.
The geographical dispersion of facilities requires the use of commutated or
digital telephone networks or radio network, such as GSM, in order to
exchange information between level 1 and 2.

‰ Level 3- Process Management

This level is entrusted with the consistent management of a group of


interconnected facilities or networks. Simulation and process optimization
as well as the quality follow-up of the product, are carried out at this level.

‰ Level 4- Factory Management

Corresponds to the management of a group of geographically close


networks but not necessary interconnected. This is the role of a company
regional management. At this level, process maintenance planning, spare
part and store management are worked out.

‰ Level 5- Overall Company Management

This level is a general management level. It is the level where


decisions are made so as to improve the use of the system. This level needs
information from facilities and networks, but also additional information
concerning the topology of the process, human and technical resources,
sales data, etc (WaterCIME, 1995).

1.5 Management and operational control of water supply and


distribution systems

Water is linked to life and human activities from many angles and
using drinking water has become a commonplace for each of us (Brunel
University, 1997). Water flows as soon as we open the tap, as naturally as
if it is spurting from a spring and we are far from thinking that the
managers of water production and distribution services must devote
sustained efforts to maintaining such a permanence and quality of service.
Water is taken from surface resources or from underground resources. Then
water is purified in treatment works by physical and chemical processes.
The clean water is then pumped into a supply network of pipes. It may be
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 14

stored in service reservoirs and it is distributed to the consumers through


distribution pipe networks. Water is transported through the pipe-networks
under pressure derived from the force of gravity and pumps. As users, we
do not generally realize how complex the process is until we are victims of
trouble such as pressure drops, supply cuts or doubtful quality – smell,
taste, and appearance.
It seems useful to briefly recall the structure of the water supply and
distribution system. It consists three main parts:

A. Treatment works

It is a process plant with a relatively high level of monitoring and


control and dedicated communications network. Many variables are
monitored at frequent intervals including flows, tank levels, water quality
parameters etc. The plant contains many local control loops, but from the
point of view of the control of an entire water system, the important
relationship is between the intake flow from the source (cause) and the
outflow (effect). When viewed as an input/output model, the treatment
processes impose some operational constraints on the control problem
including: minimum and maximum output flow at any time and total
volume over 24 hours.

B. Water supply systems

Water supply systems (also called Transmission system) share


common features that are important from the operational control point of
view:

1. Relatively simple network structure with a limited number of


connections.
2. Pipes of large diameter to transport bulk quantities of water.
3. Large pump stations composed of numbers of high-lift pumps.
4. Interactions with the distribution part of the system can be
modeled as demands and can be predicted with reasonable
accuracy.
5. Systems flows are often insensitive with respect to reservoir level
variations.

The pipe system has relatively spare measurement and control and,
typically, only key flows and pressures are monitored.

C. Water distribution systems

The following features of water distribution systems are important


1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 15

from an operational control point of view:

1. Complicated network structure with hundreds of connections and


many pipe-loops.
2. A typical zone contains one service reservoir to sustain supplies
and maintain pressures.
3. Reservoir level variations may have significant impact on flows
and pressures of the system.
4. Elements such as booster pumps and control valves to control
local conditions.

The distribution system has also relatively spare measurements and


control. Typically only a few key flows and pressures are monitored
frequently. The distribution part can include many sub-systems.
Complex water systems composed of many sub-systems required an
adequate control structure. The lower level decision structure (Level 0-
Sensors/Actuators of CIME pyramid) directly interacts with the physical
system by a distributed telemetry system (SCADA system). The
responsibilities of the operator, in a local control room, can vary from
following orders from the upper level to solving some parameterized sub-
problems. Schedules for major control elements calculated by the co-
ordination level are based on abstract mathematical models and the local
manager or operator has to convert them into direct control action taking
into account detailed physical layouts of the control elements. Typically a
computer model of the water network is the basic tool for the manager and
operator so the control decisions before being applied to the physical
system are verified by this model.

1.6 Use computer model of water network systems

The problem of integrating IT systems is one of which is facing all


hydraulic schema operators. Progress in this field has led to the
development of tools and softwares bringing considerable improvement in
the performances of their design, execution, operation, maintenance, and
marketing and sales services, but most often quite separately. Based on this
observation, overall management of these systems has to be optimized by
avoiding inconsistencies and redundancies, and by drawing most advantage
from the synergies involved. For many years, design and projects have used
computer modeling programs (WaterCIME, 1995), a trend that has been
amplified by development of computer-assisted drawing and design. It is
necessary to use modeling methods for a water network system of a
company to correspond to the computer integrated management system of
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 16

the CIME pyramid. In modern system control of water supply and


distribution, there is a need for more systematic handling of system
complexities and for prevision of more efficient guidelines for overall
operations. A model may be considered as an abstraction and simplified
representation of the reality. Its aim is to help to better perceive the reality
or to help to better achieve the objectives which have been set, and to
predict the results of different solution which may be brought to real
problems.
The model should simulate the variations in flow and pressure in the
water supply pressurized pipe network. It should represent the dynamic
operation of the pumping stations, valves, control valves and reservoirs.
Engineers are using water supply modeling in two main areas,
substantiating new infrastructure and day-to-day operational planning. A
model is constructed to represent the hydraulic behavior of the real system
and must be calibrated to ensure that the simulation represents the true
operation of the real network.
Once this is achieved the modeler can try different improvements to
the system without disturbing real customers or disrupting normal
operations. Each scenario can be simulated and the best solution chosen for
implementation. The model is also extremely useful in providing support in
day-to-day operations for looking at contingency planning, operational
maintenance and emergency situations such as firefighting and pollution
management.
The construction of a model is a data intensive process and involves
manipulating key asset data from a number of different sources. The latest
generation modeling software has a number of advanced tools for making
the job of building, calibrating and reporting much easier. By linking to
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) it is possible to build the network
model automatically from asset information held within it to reduce effort
in constructing the network in the modeling software. Links to live data
sources make the job of calibration much easier and model management
enables the modeler to keep track of data sources, different model versions
and the updating of live models. When choosing modeling software to
undertake water supply network modeling one should consider the
following:

- How well does it integrate with GIS systems such as ArcView or


MapInfo?
- How fast and robust is the hydraulic simulation?
- How quickly will I be able to construct my model and use it?
- How will I be able to keep track of my data coming into the
model and then manage it?
- How will I be able to keep my models up to date?
1. CHAPTER 1 : Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions 17

- What tools will be available to help me validate and verify my


model?
- Is it able to be connected with external systems such as SCADA
system?

The two major contradictory objectives of modeling and optimizing


the water supply systems are security of water supplying and minimizing
the water production and transportation costs (Guhl, 1999). This is the role
of the optimization tools. In order to achieve these two objectives
optimization tools can be supported by tools that play essential roles in the
management and optimization of water supply systems, these tools are
(Figure 1.4):

1. Robust model, this depends mainly on the adopted modeling


software.
2. Calibration module.
3. Demand prediction module
4. SCADA system communication is essential in the process of the
optimization.

In general, these four mainstays (Figure 1.4) represent the


fundamental elements in the management and optimization problem of
water supply systems, and they constitute the core of this thesis and they
will be described in details in the chapters coming later.

As-Is System
(Non Optimized) SCADA
Demand Predictor
Calibration Tools
Modeling Tools

To-Be System
(Optimized)

Figure 1.4 : Mainstays of optimization


2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 18

CHAPTER 2
2. Thesis Problematic and Objectives

2.1 Canal de Provence Company and needs for modeling tools

As in any regional planning and management operation, it is very


important to implement technical solutions, to mobilize financial plans and
to manage the operations of whole system while making profit of all the
interventions and while bringing an effective assistant to the most fragile or
most difficult zones. As many organizations charged to distribute water, the
Canal de Provence Company (French: Société du Canal de Provence, SCP)
attaches an increasing importance to the follow-up and the optimization of
the operation of its works. This concern relates to the service quality as
well as the reduction in the operating costs, maintenance and adaptation of
the installations to the evolution of demand (Jean, 2003).
The operation and the hydraulic installations of the Canal de
Provence were most important and especially most urgent to realize, it thus
should have been made sure that the transport network systems would
derive from the Verdon River only volumes necessary to the uses.
Consequently, an effective control and regulation are essential to prevent
that one does not fall into levels of weak operation and efficiency that
waste the resources and generate excessive capital costs.
With the aim of better meeting what we have just presented above,
SCP developed and installed, within the framework of its research
program, a telemetry network connected to a host computer of supervision
at the Control Central, named CGTC (French: Centre Général de Télé-
Control), for the operation of the hydraulic works. This one collects and
presents the data coming from many sensors of flows, pressures, operation
of pumps and valves, disseminated on a wide perimeter. Measurements are
filed and stored every fifteen minutes in the database of the supervisor and
in the case of the principal hydraulic works ensure a monitoring and a
control in real time (Dynamic Regulation).
The great number of information does not allow a permanent follow-
up of the state of all the equipments from where SCP had to set up a
module of automatic failures control to announce them to the operator. The
software of supervision provides to other applications historical
measurements that must be coherent the ones with the others. This
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 19

coherence is generally not respected because of the inaccuracy of the data.


The purpose of the module of the measurements reconciliation (Canivet,
2002) is to bring practical solutions to these two problems. For obvious
economic reasons, this network of telemetry is much less dense on the
feeders and mains supply or distribution pipe networks that represent the
majority of linear installations (approximately 5,000 km). However, the
operating conditions for the whole are similar:

¾ Continuous follow-up of the networks operation to detect, at the


appropriate time, the abnormal operations or the incidents.
¾ Operation optimization primarily from the economic perspective and
security of system supplying. This function can be very complex when
it applies to multiple works equipping the networks (closed meshes,
pumping stations, tanks, turbine, etc.)
¾ Choice of emergency operations to be carried out in case of incident so
as to minimize their consequences.
¾ Highlighting the evolution of demand to anticipate the saturation of the
networks and to launch in time the reinforcement operations.

The use of numerical simulation models could bring, in theory, an


effective assistant but in practice they are complex when they are used in
real-time operation, and are far from having all the necessary
functionalities.
Regarding the networks modeling tools, SCP has basically three
modeling and simulation softwares that it already used but of which two
are today not really installed in an operational way:

o IRMA and RAMI : “House” software developed by SCP (France)


o PICCOLO : developed by SAFÉGE (France)
o FINESSE : developed by De Montfort University (UK).

The Engineering Division uses usually the “house” tools IRMA and
RAMI. This last allows the optimized dimensioning of the system of
branching pipes. IRMA allows modeling all types of networks whose
pipe’s diameters are known to check the pressures at the service points or
the compensation of the demand by the tanks. IRMA and RAMI are
dependent, RAMI is requested by IRMA to dimension the pipes whose
diameters are to be defined. The large majority of the networks at SCP are
today available under IRMA format files (*.irm).
About PICCOLO software, in spite of the fact that it is available in
SCP, it seems that PICCOLO was never used in SCP to realize hydraulic
simulation studies on any of its networks. PICCOLO was only used during
two projects abroad that carried out on networks that are not operated by
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 20

SCP. Moreover, this version of PICCOLO is an Off-Line simulator, but


the SAFÉGE has developed a new version with a module that allows link
between PICCOLO and SCADA system. This version is not available at
SCP.
However, feedback from the experience on its own particular case
has led SCP to participate as a lead company in the European research and
development project so-called WaterCIME (1995). Three years after,
during another european project, which related to WaterCIME project,
called “WaterMain” Water Management Integration (1998), in co-
operation with De Montfort University (DMU – UK), SCP had installed set
of software tools on the pilot site at the regional operating room of
Trévaresse network at Saint Cannat. They were tried, tested and improved.
These set of software tools constitute what was called “WaterMain
platform”; and SCP started to test simulation software directly connected to
its network of telemetry. The software in question is called FINESSE,
acronym for “Fully Integrated Network Editing, Simulation and Scheduling
Environment”. FINESSE was developed by DMU. This software is able to
reach the data stored in the database of supervisor of the CGTC of SCP.
The innovation brought by this installation is the “On Line”
networks simulation, and thus the possibility of connecting the simulation
model with the supervision system making it possible to confront
measurements in real-time and to use measurements to improve modeling
and conversely to use simulation calculations to complete the information
for the operators and to optimize the networks operation. After WaterMain;
it was appeared that FINESSE is a tool that had its place rather in the
CGTC in Tholonet than in a regional control room. The reasons relate
mainly to the cost of installation (licenses, materials and time of
installation) and to the qualification level necessary for the users, which
remains relatively high.

2.2 Thesis objectives

Apart from the practical aspects related to the installation of these


softwares and to their integration with the telemetry systems at SCP, the
use of their models raises a certain number of theoretical problems which
are far from being taken into account or solved:

‰ Possibility of calibrating of the hydraulic characteristics by simple but


robust and sufficiently precise methods. This calibration must be taken
again several times per season because of the possible evolution of the
roughness of the pipes.
‰ Observability of the system state (pressures and flows) from only
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 21

limited number of pressure and flow measurements, and the


possibility of reconstituting of intermediate series of measures in
space and in time.
‰ Forecast of the water demand using historical demands information
and evaluation of the precision and the reliability of these forecasts.
‰ Optimization of the operating costs and ensuring the necessary service
and the normal constraints of water supply service. Generally it is a
question of minimizing the energy expenses but other criteria can be
taken into account such as the limitation of the number of labors.

The available softwares mentioned previously are based on hydraulic


simulations and have modules able to offer with more or less precision
some of these functionalities.
FINESSE, software of modeling and “On Line” and “Real Time”
simulation is obviously not implemented in a really operational way
because it does not arrive yet to its state of final maturation. Indeed, SCP
maybe could be much interested in FINESSE as a tool that could be
effective for daily use by the manager of the hydraulic works. A pump-
turbine plant is considered and it is neither modeled nor optimized yet, thus
it is the occasion to put to the test the software. Moreover, a collaboration
agreement was signed with DMU for technical assistance during this
research work and had allowed to more easily analyze the theoretical bases
of FINESSE software and to possibly adapt its functionalities to the needs.
The objective of the thesis is thus to study the theoretical and
practical problems related to the use of computer simulation models and
softwares to optimize the operation of the pressurized water distribution
and irrigation networks. The theoretical bases of these softwares will be
analyzed, and the complementary modules necessary to their practical use
will be developed to meet the needs listed and expressed by the services of
networks operation. A particular SCP’s water supply network, called
“Toulon Est”, was selected as our case-study where a development
program is proposed upon the decision of SCP to improve safety and
reliability of the water-supplying service for the eastern zone of the region
of Toulon City. The program includes the construction of a reversible
pump-turbine plant which will be installed close to a dam called Trapan, of
2 Mm3 in volume.
Thus, in this thesis we will highlight the problems of the
optimization of the management of the “Toulon Est” hydraulic system and
also Trapan dam and the future pump-turbine plant. Owning to the fact that
this pump-turbine plant is not yet constructed its management and
operation are still not completely well defined, and many questions rise
concerning the following important points:
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 22

- The optimal scheduling and operation of the revisable pump,


Trapan dams, and the water tanks.
- The volume of water that can be pumped and the volume of
water that can be turbined.
- The pumping costs and the turbining returns.
- When we have to pump and when we can turbine.
- The influence on the water quality in the Trapan dam.
- The eventual scenarios and hydraulics constrains.

2.3 Presentation of Canal de Provence Company (SCP)

Three interdependent territorial communities created the Canal de


Provence Company (SCP) at the behest of the Ministry of Agriculture in
1957: The departments of “Le Var”, “Bouches-du-Rhône”, and “La Vallée
de Marseille”. Sharing their rights of water, these communities
commissioned to SCP to assure the hydraulic management and planning of
the Provence Region, and particularly to conceive, to realize and to operate
the Canal de Provence.
SCP is a mixed – semipublic – water company. Its capital of 3.7
million euros is today distributed between the following: Region of
“Provence –Alpes – Côte d’Azur (PACA)”, Department of “Bouches-du-
Rhône”, Department of “Le Var”, Department of “Vaucluse”, Department
of “Alpes-de Haute-Provence et des Hautes-Alpes”, Marseille City,
Farmers’ Associations and the Regional Fund of “ Crédit Agricole ” of the
above five departments, the National Fund of “ Crédit Agricole ”, the
“Deposit and Consignment Office” (Jean, 2003). At the request of the
territorial communities concerned, by means of the state and of the region,
SCP realized and continues to realize hydraulic managements for the
Provence Region. These large-scale managements required the creation of
more than 250 million cubic meters of stored reserves backs 7 dams. They
implied the realization of 150 Km of subterranean galleries, 121 km of
open canals, 34 large regulating structures, 14 civil engineering structures,
75 dams, 580 km of transporting pipelines, 4,200 km of distributing
pipelines, 83 pumping stations and boosters, 212 stations of remote
transmission, more than 52,000 points of consumption. The Canal de
Provence was able to divert high quality water from Verdon River thanks
to the hydroelectric management of Durance River and Verdon River
realized by France’s Electricity Company (French: Électricité De France,
EDF). It will eventually allow the irrigation of 60,000 hectares, which is
more than third of the cultivated zones of the concerned region. It supplies
more than 500 industrial enterprises, and supplies to hundred of
municipalities in “Bouches-du-Rhône” and “Le Var” either drinking water,
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 23

or a raw water requiring only elementary treatments. The structures of the


Canal de Provence can be classified in two groups:

- Main structures including the main canal and four branches that
drive the water since Verdon River towards La Provence and the
coastal zone. Flow of water is driven by gravity and the discharges
decrease from 40 to 10 m3 /s.
- Secondary installations (or pressurized distribution networks) that
include 580 km of pipes between 500 and 1,300 mm in diameter, and
420 km secondary pipes of diameter lower than 500 mm.

In harmony with its philosophy, the strategy of SCP, its project, its
quality assurance approach and its system of environmental management,
aim to reconcile satisfaction of the customer, respect for the environment
and to assure a strict financial balance. Expertise acquired by SCP has
allowed it to promote engineering products adapted to the necessities of the
public or private specialists of planning and management. Not less than
thirty disciplines are represented at SCP: from hydraulics to landscaped
architecture, from electronics to agronomy, from civil engineering to
microbiology, from geology to land expertise.
On the occasion of its researches and its achievements, SCP
established a wide network of French and foreign partners: research or
financial organisms, specialized research departments, and big companies.
SCP intervened mainly in several countries: Albania, Algeria, Saudi
Arabia, Bolivia, Cameroon, China, Egypt, the United States, Greece, India,
Iraq, Morocco, Oman, Tunisia, Jordan, etc.
From its creation, SCP dedicated huge efforts in the development
researches, particularly in the methods of calculation and operation of
hydraulic works and facilities. It led, in the 60s, in major innovations, today
adopted all over the world. It is notably about the “Dynamic Regulation”
system of Canal de Provence, and optimization methods of the pressurized
irrigation networks. The activities of research and development concern
today all the domains of competence and intervention of SCP. In most of
cases, researches are realized in association with specialized partners;
universities and schools, public researches centers, other regional
management companies and societies, big public and private companies,
research departments. This thesis comes within the framework of the
research programs of SCP.
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 24

Figure 2.1 : General view of Canal de Provence


2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 25

2.4 Presentation of the “Toulon Est” water supply network

The present study is concerned with one of the SCP’s water


networks constituting the water supply system “Les Laures - Trapan - La
Môle” composed of the main supply pipe of the same name and the sets of
the derived storage tanks, the unit being commonly called “Toulon Est”
(Figure 2.2).

Les Laures Point A


Z= 295.0 m
Point M
Point C Trapan Z= 35.0 m
Z=98.0 m

Point F Mont Redon


Z=30.7 m
Point H
Z=6.8 m
Pierrascas La Môle
Fenouillet

Point G Point T
Z=17.0 m Z=75.0 m

Golf Hôtel

Figure 2.2 : General view of “Toulon Est” water supply network


(CGTC-SCADA interface)

2.5 Description of the existing hydraulic system of “Toulon East”

The zone covered by this study understands the whole hydraulic


infrastructures, main pipelines and tanks, located downstream from the
divisor of “Les Laures” to the outlet of the Valaury gallery, to the supply
point of La Môle (Engineering Division-SCP, 2002).

a) “Les Laures” divisor –(Point A)

It is an impact block dissipator linking the network to the extremity


of the “Toulon Est” branch of Canal de Provence (Figure 2.3). The water
withdrawal from the Canal is carried out through a pressurized gallery and
then it derived by a 1,000-mm pipe provided with a butterfly control valve.
Two parallels pipes (one is 400 mm, the other is 1,000 mm) equipped with
modern electromagnetic flowmeters are linked to the 1,000-mm pipe. This
dissipator consists of a basin equipped with a shut-off floating diaphragm
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 26

(800 mm). An automatic filter extends the basin and retains the suspended
particles greater than 2 mm. This work is connected to the main pipeline by
a penstock (1,250 mm). The whole of this dissipator is bypassed by 1,250-
mm pipe at the beginning and then 600-mm pipe on which is mounted a
pressure regulator. The theoretical maximum flow available at the end of
the gallery is 10 m3/s at altitude of 295 m above mean see level (French:
Nivellement Général de la France, NGF). However the dissipator actual
flow is about 3.5 m3/s (maximum). The highest water level of the basin is
295 m NGF, and the lowest water level is 293 m NGF.

Divisor
Dissipator

By-Pass

Figure 2.3 : Point A – Les Laures

b) “Les Laures – La Môle” main water supply pipeline

The “Toulon Est” system is structured around the main pipeline “Les
Laures – La Môle”. This feeder, approximately 43 km in length, can be
divided into two sections (Figure 2.2):

- Section N° 1 “Les Laures – Trapan” is 26 km in length, was installed


in 1976. It consists of 1,000-mm pipe 7 km in length, 900-mm pipe 7
km in length, and 700-mm pipe 12 km in length. This section
extends from the dissipator until the Trapan dam. It supplies the
Trapan dam, various irrigation networks, and five submain pipes.

- Section N° 2 “Trapan – La Môle” is 700-mm pipe in 17 km length,


and was installed in 1978. It is an extension of the preceding section
to the supply point of La Môle. It supplies some irrigation networks
upstream the dissipator at Gratteloup and ends in the downstream at
the level of La Môle. From this point departs a pipe to the supply
point of the Water Distributing Association of La Corniche des
Maures (French: Syndicat Intercommunal de Distribution d’Eau de
la Corniche des Maures, SIDECM), and the suction manifold of the
small booster of La Môle, which supplies the network of La Verne.
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 27

c) Submain water supply pipelines

The submain pipelines all have the same architecture: control


apparatus at the head to the right of the connection point, connecting pipe
to a water tank, tank with shut-off floating diaphragm from where departs a
supply pipe for the irrigation networks. Characteristics of the submain
pipelines are summarized in Table 2.1:

Table 2.1 : Characteristics of the submain pipelines


Water Tank
Submain Extension pipe Elevation Volume
(m NGF) (m3)
Pierrascas 1,790 m - 700 mm 194.2 5,500
Fenouillet 2,080 m - 600 mm 215.3 5,400
Mont Redon 1,014 m - 400 mm 180.9 3,900
Golf Hôtel 1,350 m - 700 mm 171.2 7,500

Figure 2.4 : Point C – Pierrascas tank

Figure 2.5 : Point F – Fenouillet tank


2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 28

Figure 2.6 : Point G – Mont Redon tank

Figure 2.7 : Point H – Golf Hôtel tank

Figure 2.8 : Point M – La Môle


2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 29

Figure 2.9 : Hydraulic profile of Toulon Est network


Les Laures Dissipator (295 m NGF)
Elevation ( m NGF)

Cumulated distance (km)


2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 30

d) Trapan dam

The Trapan dam, located at the south-west of the communes of


Bormes Les Mimosas, was constructed with an aim of supplementing the
water supply to the eastern zone of Toulon City. The construction of
Trapan dam and its operation were confided to SCP in February 1965. The
first commissioning of this dam took place in 1968. This dam allows
accumulating, in winter, about 2 Mm3 of water which are available to
satisfy the water demand during the peak period. The feeding of Trapan
dam is mixed, on the one hand the water delivered from “Toulon Est”
network coming from the Verdon River; on the other hand the surface
water coming from the surface runoff of the catchment area of the small
stream of La Pellegrin upstream of the dam. This dam has two principal
functions, after potabilization by Water and Ozone Company (French:
Compagnie d’Eau et d’Ozone, CEO) downstream the dam, part of the
potabilized water is distributed during the summer period of high
consumption to the urban district of the nearby shoreline, and it can be also
used for the load shedding of the basins of the Canal de Provence; when
necessary.

Figure 2.10 : Point T – Trapan dam

Trapan dam, in its current operating mode, is a static dam. The


concern of the water quality control rises from this operating mode. The
information feedbacks concerning the water quality come from the CEO.
CEO carries out physicochemical controls of the water which delivered to
the CEO from the dam for potabilization. The problems punctually
encountered during the summer period relate to the water temperature
sometimes very high near the surface, and a high concentration of
Manganese, Iron and Ammonium near the bottom in summer. The operator
switch the supply of the CEO directly from the feeder “Les Laures – La
Môle” if a water quality problem is detected at the CEO supply point from
the dam.
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 31

In practice the dam useful volume is less than 2 Mm3 because of the
deposits at the bottom of the dam and the water quality problems. However
the operator points out that in case of emergency water supply, the low
water level to be considered is 45 m (1.8 Mm3 useful volume). The existing
management of the dam is very simple; the only operating constraint is to
start the peak demand season with a full reserve, to limit the water quality
problems related to the temperature as mentioned above. For that the filling
of Trapan starts in February and spreads out until May.
The dam feeding setup from the main pipeline consists of a
dissipator equipped with a shut-off floating diaphragm. The exit of the
dissipator is double and makes it possible to supply either the dam from the
bottom, or directly supplying the CEO in case of accidental pollution or
insufficient water quality of Trapan. The maximum theoretical flow of this
work is of 600 l/s.

2.6 Operation and hydraulic management

The hydraulic management of “Toulon Est” system remained of


passive type, without real dynamic control of storage volumes available in
the five tanks. Their filling is controlled from the downstream by means of
a shut-off floating diaphragm. Their filling flow is determined by the
pressure valve downstream the corresponding pressure reducing valve,
which ensures also the reduction of the maximum service pressure.
Generally, it appears that the tanks are requested very little in their function
of demand compensation and that they are maintained full permanently,
even during the peak periods of water demand.
Until recently, the hydraulic system of “Toulon Est” was far from
saturation because the emergency water supply contract of the SIDECM
had been considerably decreased in January 2000. However, the
exceptional climatic condition at the end of the year 2001 and at the
beginning of the year 2002 led the SIDECM to subscribe an increase in its
urban contract to 410 l/s. The totality of this flow was actually mobilized
during the peak season of 2002.
A dynamic simulation during peak period showed that this increase
in water supply contract would have brought up the water demand to a
level close to saturation what would have resulted in a theoretical pressure
insufficient at Le Col Gratteloup point during the peak period. A dynamic
control of Golf Hôtel tank was therefore set up. The principle is such that
filling the tank during off-peak hours and emptying it during peak hours so
that the instantaneous demand at the head of the network stays almost close
to its continuous average flow.
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 32

2.7 Water demand of the zone “Toulon Est”

Globally, the annual volume introduced into the zone of “Toulon


Est” is relatively stable, close to 16 to 17 Mm3 during last years, of which
98% are provided by the Canal de Provence from the divisor of “Les
Laures”, and 2% by the sources of Carnoules. An important part of the
introduced volumes is not counted (more than 30%). In order to identify the
source of these losses the Maintenance Division replaced the flowmeters in
the network. The demand can be characterized by type of use:

a) Industrial demand: is very small, it represents approximately 1% of


the total demand. Only one customer of this type exists in the zone of
“Toulon Est” that is La Varoise Distillery Company concerning a
supply of 10 l/s during normal use.

b) Urban demand: it represents approximately 18% of the mobilized


annual volume. The supply is mainly concerned with raw water,
except for the commune of Cures and the Naval-Air Base de Cures
Pierrefeu to which drinking water is delivered.

c) Irrigation agricultural and nonagricultural demand and diverse


water use: is very significant since it represents nearly 50% of the
total demand. The zone “Toulon Est” supplies around twenty
irrigation networks, for a total subscribed surface of 6,525 hectares
in 2000. These networks all almost derive water from branches on
the main pipeline. A small number of them are supplied directly
from the main pipeline “Les Laures – la Môle”. These networks
gather various types of water use characterized as follow:
- Agricultural irrigation, it concerns mainly water supply for a
greenhouse growers. This type of user requires a flow throughout the
year. Thus, even in winter, there is a significant irrigation flow.
- Nonagricultural Irrigation, for watering mainly the green areas.
- Diverse uses, for the other uses (domestic water supply, swimming
pool, …).

According to the annual report published by the maintenance staff


concerning the efficiency of the networks, it is possible to know the overall
distribution of billed volumes between the various uses as well as the
demand interannual variations.
The low number of operational flowmeters in the zone of “Toulon
Est” constrained us to approach the daily demand of the irrigation and
diverse uses networks.
2. CHAPTER 2 : Thesis Problematic and Objectives 33

2.8 Development program of the zone “Toulon Est”

The general study of the hydraulic operation and the development


program of the zone of “Toulon Est” has as principal objective of
maintaining water supply of the customers located between the divisor of
Les Laures and the Trapan dam in the case of unavailability of water from
Les Laures or in the case of burst on the main pipeline between Les Laures
and Trapan. The development program considers the construction of
reversible pump-turbine plant at Trapan and of a new water tank to be built
at Le Col Gratteloup.

- Reversible pump-turbine station of Trapan dam

According to the development program of “Toulon Est”, the station


had been proposed following the decision of SCP to improve safety and
reliability of the water-supplying service for the eastern zone of the region
of Toulon City. The primary objective is to maintain the possibility of
supplying the priority customers in the case of unavailability of water from
Les Laures or in the case of pipe bursting on the main pipeline between Les
Laures and Trapan making out of service the infrastructures of the Canal de
Provence upstream of the divisor of Les Laures for a long time. The second
objective is to generate electrical energy by the possibility of equipping the
station with a reversible pump-turbine unit.

- New water tank at Le Col Gratteloup

It is proposed to build a new tank at Le Col Gratteloup that will


come to supplement the five tanks available on the main pipeline of
“Toulon Est”. Its function is to contribute in the increase in the available
system flow and in association with the future pumping station. In addition,
it will make it possible to maximize the potential net income of the
electrical energy production. The size of this tank will depend on the
requested objective concerning the safety level and energy income. It will
be at least of 5,000 m3 for a minimal safety objective and to optimize the
operation of the unit as turbine, and it will be to the maximum of 20,000 m3
to maximize the energy income and to increase the safety level.
The operations of the future reversible pumping station of Trapan
and proposals, scenarios, and options will be presented and studied later in
Chapter 10.
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 34

CHAPTER 3
3. Water Distribution Network System
Hydraulics and Modeling

3.1 Anatomy of water distribution network system

Although the size and complexity of water distribution systems vary


dramatically, they all have the same basic purpose; to deliver water from
the source (or treatment facility) to the customer.

3.1.1 Source of water

Untreated water (also called raw water) may come from groundwater
sources or surface waters such as lakes, reservoirs, and rivers. The raw
water is usually transported to a water treatment plant, where it is processed
to produce treated water (also known as potable or finished water). The
degree to which the raw water is processed to achieve potability depends
on the characteristics of the raw water, relevant drinking water standards,
treatment processes used, and the characteristics of the distribution system.
In the case of groundwater, many sources offer up consistently high quality
water that could be consumed without disinfection.

3.1.2 Customers of water

Customers of a water supply system are easily identified - they are


the reason that the system exists in the first place. Homeowners, factories,
hospitals, restaurants, golf courses, and thousands of other types of
customers depend on water systems to provide everything from safe
drinking water to irrigation. Customers and the nature in which they use
water are the driving mechanism behind how a water distribution system
behaves (Babbitt, 1931). Water use can vary over time in the long-term,
medium-term, and the short-term, and over space. Good knowledge of how
water use is distributed across the system is critical to accurate modeling.
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 35

3.1.3 Transport facilities

Moving water from the source to the customer requires a network of


pipes, pumps, valves, and other appurtenances. Storing water to
accommodate fluctuations in demand due to varying rates of usage or fire
protection needs requires storage facilities such as tanks and reservoirs.
Piping, storage, and the supporting infrastructure are together referred to as
the water distribution system (WDS).
This system of piping is often categorized into transmission/trunk
mains and distribution mains. Transmission mains consist of components
that are designed to convey large amounts of water over great distances,
typically between major facilities within the system. For example, a
transmission main may be used to transport water from a treatment facility
to storage tanks throughout several cities and towns. Individual customers
are usually not served from transmission mains.
Distribution mains are an intermediate step toward delivering water
to the end customers. Distribution mains are smaller in diameter than
transmission mains, and typically follow the general topology and
alignment of the city streets. Elbows, tees, wyes, crosses, and numerous
other fittings are used to connect and redirect sections of pipe. Fire
hydrants, isolation valves, control valves, blow-offs, and other maintenance
and operational appurtenances are frequently connected directly to the
distribution mains. Services, also called service lines, transmit the water
from the distribution mains to the end customers. Homes, businesses, and
industries have their own internal plumbing systems to transport water to
sinks, washing machines, and so forth. Typically, the internal plumbing of
a customer is not included in a WDS model; however, in some cases, such
as sprinkler systems, internal plumbing may be modeled.

3.1.4 System configurations

Transmission and distribution systems can be either looped or


branched, as shown in Figure 3.1. As the name suggests, in looped systems
there may be several different paths that the water can follow to get from
the source to a particular customer. In a branched system, also called a tree
or dendritic system, the water has only one possible path from the source to
a customer.
Looped systems are generally more desirable than branched systems
because, coupled with sufficient valving, they can provide an additional
level of reliability. For example, consider a main break occurring near the
reservoir in each system depicted in Figure 3.2. In the looped system, that
break can be isolated and repaired with little impact on customers outside
of that immediate area. In the branched system, however, all the customers
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 36

downstream from the break will have their water service interrupted until
the repairs are finished. Another advantage of a looped configuration is
that, because there is more than one path for water to reach the user, the
velocities will be lower, and system capacity greater.
Most water supply systems are a complex combination of loops and
branches, with a trade-off between loops for reliability (redundancy) and
branches for infrastructure cost savings (Walski, 2004).

Figure 3.1 : Looped and branched networks

Figure 3.2 : Looped and branched networks after network failure


3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 37

3.1.5 Solving network problems

Real water distribution systems do not consist of a single pipe and


cannot be described by a single set of continuity and energy equations.
Instead, one continuity equation must be developed for each node in the
system, and one energy equation must be developed for each pipe (or loop),
depending on the method used. For real systems, these equations can
number in the thousands.
The first systematic approach for solving these equations was
developed by Hardy Cross (1936). The invention of digital computers,
however, allowed more powerful numerical techniques to be developed.
These techniques set up and solve the system of equations describing the
hydraulics of the network in matrix form. Because the energy equations are
nonlinear in terms of flow and head, they cannot be solved directly.
Instead, these techniques estimate a solution and then iteratively improve it
until the difference between solutions falls within a specified tolerance. At
this point, the hydraulic equations are considered solved. Some of the
methods used in network analysis are described in (Bhave, 1991), (Lansey,
2000), and (Todini, 1987). Chapter 5 of this thesis is devoted for the
methods for solving water pipe networks problem.

3.2 Water distribution network system simulation

The term simulation generally refers to the process of imitating the


behavior of one system through the functions of another. Here, the term
simulation refers to the process of using a mathematical representation of
the real system, called a model. Network simulations, which replicate the
dynamics of an existing or proposed system, are commonly performed
when it is not practical for the real system to be directly subjected to
experimentation, or for evaluating a system before it is actually built
(Ulanicki, 2001). In addition, for situations in which water quality is an
issue directly testing a system may be costly and a potentially hazardous
risk to public health.
Simulations can be used to predict system responses to events under
a wide range of conditions without disrupting the actual system. Using
simulations, problems can be anticipated in proposed or existing systems,
and solutions can be evaluated before time, money, and materials are
invested in a real-world project. For example, a water utility might want to
verify that a new subdivision can be provided with enough water to fight a
fire without compromising the level of service to existing customers. The
system could be built and tested directly, but if any problems were to be
discovered, the cost of correction would be enormous. Regardless of
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 38

project size, model-based simulation can provide valuable information to


assist an engineer in making well-informed decisions (Fishwick, 1995).
Simulations can either be steady-state or extended-period. Steady-
state simulations represent a snapshot in time and are used to determine the
operating behavior of a system under static conditions. This type of
analysis can be useful in determining the short-term effect of fire flows or
average demand conditions on the system. Extended- period simulations
(EPS) are used to evaluate system performance over time. This type of
analysis allows the user to model tanks filling and draining, regulating
valves opening and closing, and pressures and flow rates changing
throughout the system in response to varying demand conditions and
automatic control strategies formulated by the modeler.
Modern simulation software packages use a Graphical User Interface
(GUI) that makes it easier to create models and visualize the results of
simulations. Older-generation software relied exclusively on tabular input
and output.

3.3 Water distribution network system modeling

Today, water distribution modeling is a critical part of designing and


operating water distribution systems that are capable of serving
communities reliably, efficiently, and safely, both now and in the future
(Male, 1990). The availability of increasingly sophisticated and accessible
models allows these goals to be realized more fully than ever before.
This part is an introduction to water distribution modeling by giving
an overview of the basic distribution system modeling, defining the nature
and purposes of distribution system models, and outlining the basic steps in
the modeling process.

3.3.1 Application of models

Most Water Distribution Models (WDMs) can be used to analyze a


variety of other pressure piping systems, such as industrial cooling systems,
oil pipelines, or any network carrying an incompressible, single-phase,
Newtonian fluid in full pipes. Municipal water utilities, however, are by far
the most common application of these models (Cesario, 1991). Models are
especially important for WDSs due to their complex topology, frequent
growth and change. It is not uncommon for a system to supply hundreds of
thousands of people (large networks supply millions); thus, the potential
impact of a utility decision can be tremendous. In general terms the
problem area could be related to operational, planning or legislative
requirements and more recently to water quality management. An overview
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 39

of problem types in water supply systems, which could be analyzed by


using the hydraulic network models are presented in Table 3.1 (Pilipovic,
2004).

Table 3.1 : Types of problems that could be analyzed by modeling


Domain Possible Problem
Developing and understanding of how the system operates
Training water system operators
Assessing the level of service
Assessing the carrying capacity of the existing system
Assessing the efficiency of current operational management policy
Assessing levels of pressures at critical points within the system
Identifying and resolving operational anomalies – closed valves
Operational
Low pressure or high pressure fluctuation problems
Management
Low fire flow at hydrants - if it is different from expected capacity
Daily operational use - shutting down a section of the system due to major breaks
Power outage – impact on pump stations
Sizing control points – subsystem metering, control valves – PRV, PSV, FCV
Sizing sprinkler systems – fire service and other
Assessing the available range of pressure at customer connections
Real time control of the system
Identifying the impact of future population growth on the existing system
Identifying the impact of major new industrial or commercial developments on the existing
system
Identifying key bottlenecks in current and future systems
Designing the reinforcement to the existing system to meet future demand
Designing the new distribution system
Optimizing the capital works programs
Planning Assessing the new resource option
Assessing the effects of rehabilitation techniques
Leak control – Reducing losses by lowering maximum pressure
Demand management – Reducing the pressure related demand by lowering service pressure
Sizing elements of the system to meet fire service requirements in existing and future systems
Assessing the value and design of distribution monitoring systems – Telemetry, Data Loggers
Contingency planning – Answering “ what if “ questions on major outages
Long Term Council Community Plan (LTCCP) and Water Assessments – Assessing levels of
service, Regulatory levels of service reporting, and options for future planning based on
community consultations
Legislative Public Health - Maintaining levels of residual Free Available Chlorine (FAC) within predefined
values.
Assessing the financial contribution required for new developments
Fire Service Code of Practice – Water and pressure requirements for fire fighting purposes
Disinfectant residual assessments - levels of FAC throughout the system
Water Substance tracking, determination of age of water, water blending from various sources
Quality
Distribution Systems Flushing - velocity and flow assessments, sedimentation trends
Analyzing water quality contamination events
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 40

3.3.2 Modeling process

Development and use of water distribution models comprises of


many activities and processes. As with any such complex task, it can be
managed more successfully and efficiently if it is broken down into its
components or stages. The process is common for almost any such type of
project, regardless of the size of the system and it could be divided into
eight characteristic stages, namely:

1. Setting up a new modeling project or Re-establishing the


existing,
2. Data Collection, Model Build (or Model Update),
3. Data Verification and Model testing,
4. Model Calibration and Validation,
5. Model Use,
6. Results Interpretation,
7. Reports and model documentation,
8. Change monitoring and model management.

Some tasks can be done in parallel while others must be done in


series. The first step in undertaking any modeling project is to develop a
consensus within the water utility regarding the need for the model and the
purposes for which the model will be used in both the short- and long-term.
It is important to have utility personnel, from upper management and
engineering to operations and maintenance, commit to the model in terms
of human resources, time, and funding. Modeling should not be viewed as
an isolated endeavor by a single modeler, but rather a utility-wide effort
with the modeler as the key worker (Cesario, 1995). After the vision of the
model has been accepted by the utility, decisions on such issues as extent
of model simplification and accuracy of calibration will naturally follow.
Most of the work in modeling must be done before the model can be
used to solve real problems. Therefore, it is important to budget sufficient
time to use the model once it has been developed and calibrated. Too many
modeling projects fall short of their goals for usage because the model-
building process takes up all of the allotted time and resources. There is not
enough time left to use the model to understand the full range of alternative
solutions to the problems (Walski, 2003).
Modeling involves a series of abstractions. First, the real pipes and
pumps in the system are represented in maps and drawings of those
facilities. Then, the maps are converted to a model that represents the
facilities as links and nodes. Another layer of abstraction is introduced as
the behaviors of the links and nodes are described mathematically. The
model equations are then solved, and the solutions are typically displayed
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 41

on maps of the system or as tabular output. A model’s value stems from the
usefulness of these abstractions in facilitating efficient design of system
improvements or better operation of an existing system.
Before building a model, it is necessary to gather information
describing the network. Many potential sources are available for obtaining
the data required to generate a water distribution model, and the availability
of these sources varies dramatically from utility to utility. Some of the most
commonly used resources, including system maps, as-built drawings, and
electronic data files. There are three types of data essential for assembling a
water distribution model as outlined in Table 3.2 , Table 3.3 and Table 3.4.
These are network data, water demand data, and operational data.
The most fundamental data requirement is to have an accurate
representation of the network topology, which details what the elements are
and how they are interconnected. If a model does not faithfully duplicate
real-world layout (for example, the model pipe connects two nodes that are
not really connected), then the model will never accurately describe real-
world performance, regardless of the quality of the remaining data
(Pilipovic, 2004).
Because models may contain tens of thousands of elements, naming
conventions are an important consideration in making the relationship
between real-world components and model elements as obvious as
possible. Naming conventions should mirror the way the modeler thinks
about the particular network by using a mixture of prefixes, suffixes,
numbers, and descriptive text.
The following should be noted in the management of the modeling
process (Cesario, 1995):

ƒ The key decision which must be made at the very start of the
process is whether or not to use the hydraulic network modeling
software as the right tool for providing answers to problems
faced in managing water distribution systems.
ƒ If a hydraulic network model is the right tool, running the water
distribution-modeling project is an ongoing activity, which needs
regular model updating and checking if the existing model is still
an adequate tool for providing answers to actual requirements.
ƒ The process of the management of the modeling process
inherently has many loops and feedbacks from previous steps.
ƒ One of the key characteristics of the process is that these
feedbacks make the modeling work an iterative process; not
linear as it was traditionally presented.
ƒ The modeling process should be considered as a process closely
linked to other corporate systems, not as an isolated activity. The
model’s output provides input and support to many strategic
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 42

Water Utilities programs or policies, and the model requires


strong linkages with GIS, Telemetry, Water billing and other
corporate systems.
ƒ The process requires at various stages, agreements with involved
parties, on reached decisions about the quality of completed work
at certain project stages and recommendations prior to
commencement of the next stage. Supervision of the project
should be continuously run from the beginning of the process by
preferably one party based more on a working relationship than
on traditional audit control approach.
ƒ Depending on the size of the distribution systems, models can
vary from very simple - with only one water source and a small
network, up to very complex systems with multiple sources and
sophisticated operation regimes. Although the level of
complexity in managing a modeling project varies with the size
and complexity of a particular system the principles of the
modeling process remain the same.

Table 3.2 : Network Data


Data Detail Source
Nodes Number or name GIS, As-built plans, Operational
Coordinates, Elevation staff
Type – Network junctions or end points, source of
water

Pipelines Initial node, end node GIS, As-built plans, Operational


Diameter – nominal or internal staff
Length, Material, Construction year Design standards, recommendations,
Pipe roughness, Minor loss coefficients hydraulic textbook
Water Quality – Reaction rate coefficients: bulk and Design standards, recommendations,
wall. hydraulic textbook

Valves and Initial Node, end node GIS, Control valve database
control Diameter, Length, As-built plans
equipment Roughness coefficients
Type – Throttled, NRV, PRV, PSV, PCV, TCV, FCV.
Pumping Initial node end node GIS
stations Diameter of suction and delivery pipe Pump station database
Number or pump, name, pump type As-built plans
Pump delivery rate, delivery head, power
Rotating speed, number of stage, efficiency
Pump characteristic “Q – H – P curve”, protections
Type – Fixed or variable speed pumps

Reservoirs Number or reservoir name GIS , Reservoir database


Shape and volume As – built plans
Inflow and outflow pipes arrangements
Type – Storages, Water Towers

Zones Zone or sub zones boundary lines GIS, Contour plans


Boundary
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 43

Table 3.3 : Demand Data


Data Detail Source
Existing Yearly average or base consumption Water Billing System, Sub meter readings
demand Type of consumer Water Balance Sheet
Level of water losses Minimum Night Flow
Spatial Location of water meters or water users Water Billing System, GIS
Allocation
Time varying Daily and hourly peaking factors Telemetry or data loggers
factors Diurnal curves – Patterns of water use Typical patterns
Future demand Projected future demand and its allocation Water Utility or regional planning
documents

Table 3.4 : Operational Data


Data Detail Source
Source node Hydraulic Grade Line Operational staff
Initial Water Quality, Baseline concentrations and patterns
Pump Station Pump’s operational regimes – setting points: pressure at node, Operational staff
water level at reservoir, time SCADA
Reservoirs Water levels ranges – lower and upper operational limits Operational staff, SCADA
Control Valves Control regimes, control points, trigger values, throttled valves Operational staff SCADA
Zone valves Locations of permanently closed valves Operational staff, GIS

3.3.3 Network model elements

Water distribution models have many types of nodal elements,


including junction nodes where pipes connect, storage tank and reservoir
nodes, pump nodes, and control valve nodes. Models use link elements to
describe the pipes connecting these nodes. Also, elements such as valves
and pumps are sometimes classified as links rather than nodes. Table 3.5
lists each model element, the type of element used to represent it in the
model, and the primary modeling purpose.

Table 3.5 : Common network modeling elements


Element Type Primary Modeling Purpose

Reservoir Node Provides water to the system

Stores excess water within the system and releases that water at
Tank Node
times of high usage

Junction Node Removes (demand) or adds (inflow) water from/to the system

Pipe Link Conveys water from one node to another

Raises the hydraulic grade to overcome elevation differences and


Pump Node or link
friction losses

Control Valve Node or link Controls flow or pressure in the system based on specified criteria
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 44

3.3.4 Water quality modeling

Water quality modeling is a direct extension of hydraulic network


modeling and can be used to perform many useful analyses (Rossman,
1996). Developers of hydraulic network simulation models recognized the
potential for water quality analysis and began adding water quality
calculation features to their models in the mid 1980s. Transport, mixing,
and decay are the fundamental physical and chemical processes typically
represented in water quality models. Water quality simulations also use the
network hydraulic solution as part of their computations. Flow rates in
pipes and the flow paths that define how water travels through the network
are used to determine mixing, residence times, and other hydraulic
characteristics affecting disinfectant transport and decay. The results of an
extended period hydraulic simulation can be used as a starting point in
performing a water quality analysis.
The equations describing transport through pipes, mixing at nodes,
chemical formation and decay reactions, and storage and mixing in tanks
are adapted from Grayman, Rossman, and Geldreich (Grayman, 2000). The
water quality modeling will not be approached in this research.

3.3.5 Model simplification (skeletonisation)

Model Simplification (or Skeletonization) is the process of selecting


for inclusion in the model only the parts of the hydraulic network that have
a significant impact on the behavior of the system. Attempting to include
each individual service connection, gate valve, and every other component
of a large system in a model could be a huge undertaking without a
significant impact on the model results. Capturing every feature of a system
would also result in tremendous amounts of data, enough to make
managing, using, and trouble-shooting the model a difficult and error-prone
task. Simplification is a more practical approach to modeling that allows
the modeler to produce reliable, accurate results without investing
unnecessary time and money (Ulanicki, 1996).
Eggener and Polkowski (Eggener, 1976) did the first study of
simplification when they systematically removed pipes from a model of
Menomonie, Wisconsin, to test the sensitivity of model results. They found
that under normal demands, they could remove a large number of pipes and
still not affect pressure significantly. Shamir and Hamberg (Shamir 1988a,
1988b) investigated rigorous rules for reducing the size of models.
Simplification should not be confused with the omission of data. The
portions of the system that are not modeled during the simplification
process are not discarded; rather, their effects are accounted for within
parts of the system that are included in the model.
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 45

The network model simplification problem can be expressed as in


the following statement: Find a hydraulic model of a network with a
reduced number of components, which approximates the mapping between
the input and output variables over a wide range of operating conditions,
where: Input variables are: source inflows, source heads, demands, pump
schedules and initial reservoir levels, and output variables are: flows in
pipes and heads at nodes over a time horizon (Ulanicki, 1996).
The reduced model should preserve the non-linearity of the original
network and approximate its operation accurately under different
conditions. It is expected that the relationships between heads and demands
are similar in both the full and reduced models. There are three common
approaches to model simplification: element by element, variable
elimination, and approximation.
The element by element method includes two activities:
skeletonisation of the structure and the use of equivalent pipes in place of
numbers of pipes connected in parallel and/or in series. The skeletonisation
technique eliminates pipes of a small diameter leaving only major pipes in
the model. At the same time demands fed by smaller pipes are aggregated
and allocated to the nearest upstream node of a major pipe.
Variable elimination is based on a mathematical formalism. A pipe
network mathematical model is a system of simultaneous algebraic
equations. Some of variables (flows and heads) can be eliminated from
these equations using an algorithm, thus reducing the size of a model. The
FINESSE simplifier is based on a Gaussian elimination procedure
(Ulanicki, 1996).
Approximation is a method based on an estimation technique where
an arbitrary topology of a simplified model is assumed where the simplified
model includes all reservoirs and all pressure control nodes. The technique
calculates parameters of pipes (resistance) and the distribution of the
demand (demand factor) minimizing the difference of the behavior of a
simplified model and network measurements.

3.3.6 Model calibration

Even though the required data have been collected and entered into a
hydraulic simulation software package, the modeler cannot assume that the
model is an accurate mathematical representation of the system (Ormsbee,
1997). The hydraulic simulation software simply solves the equations of
continuity and energy using the supplied data; thus, the quality of the data
will dictate the quality of the results. The accuracy of a hydraulic model
depends on how well it has been calibrated, so a calibration analysis should
always be performed before a model is used for decision-making purposes.
The calibration process will be discussed in details in Chapter 7.
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 46

3.3.7 Model maintenance

Once a water distribution model is constructed and calibrated, it can


be modified to simulate and predict system behavior under a range of
conditions. The model represents a significant investment on the part of the
utility, and that investment should be maximized by carefully maintaining
the model for use well into the future (Basford, 1995).
The user needs to periodically update the model file so that installed
piping is accurately distinguished from proposed facilities, and that
facilities that will most likely never be installed are removed from the
model. The modeler also needs to be in regular contact with operations
personnel to determine when new piping is placed into service. Note that
there may be a substantial lag between the time that a pipe or other facility
is placed into service, and the time that facility shows up in the system
map. The version of the model used for operational studies should not be
updated until the facilities are actually placed into service.

3.4 Network water consumption

The consumption or use of water, also known as water demand, is


the driving force behind the hydraulic dynamics occurring in water
distribution systems. Anywhere that water can leave the system represents
a point of consumption, including a customer’s faucet, a leaky main, or an
open fire hydrant.
Three questions related to water consumption must be answered
when building a hydraulic model: (1) How much water is being used? (2)
Where are the points of consumption located? and (3) How does the usage
change as a function of time?.
Water distribution models are created not only to solve the problems
of today, but also to prevent problems in the future (Cesario, 1991). With
almost any endeavor, the future holds a lot of uncertainty, and demand
prediction is no exception. Long-range planning may include the analysis
of a system for 5, 10, and 20-year time frames. When performing long-term
planning analyses, estimating future demands is an important factor
influencing the quality of information provided by the model.
The uncertainty of this process puts the modeler in the difficult
position of trying to predict the future. The complexity of such analyses,
however, can be reduced to some extent with software that supports such
analysis. The demand prediction will be discussed in details in Chapter 8.
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 47

3.5 Network system security

The security of water systems has long been a concern in the water
industry. The potential for natural, accidental, and purposeful
contamination or other events that would hinder the ability of the system to
provide a safe water supply has been the subject of many studies (Walski,
2003). Because water systems are spatially diverse (see Figure 3.3), they
are inherently vulnerable to a variety of activities that can compromise the
system’s ability to reliably deliver sufficient water at an acceptable level of
quality. There are several areas of vulnerability as water travels to the
customer. These areas include (1) the raw water source (surface or
groundwater); (2) raw water canals and pipelines; (3) raw water reservoirs;
(4) the treatment facilities; (5) connections to the distribution system pipes;
(6) pump stations and valves; and (7) finished water tanks and reservoirs.
Each of these system elements presents unique challenges to the water
utility in safeguarding the water supply. These challenges include:

• Physical disruption that prevents sufficient water flow at an


acceptable pressure to all customers.
• Contamination of the water delivered to the customer by a
chemical or biological agent such that the product is not safe to
use or is not of an acceptable quality to the customer.
• Loss of confidence by customers in the ability of the water utility
to deliver a safe and secure water supply.

Figure 3.3 : Major points of vulnerability in a water supply system

Simulation models can be used in vulnerability studies to help a


water utility understand how their system will respond to an accidental or
purposeful physical or chemical event. This understanding can be used to
identify the consequences of such events, to test solutions to minimize the
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 48

impacts of the events, or to learn how to respond if such events occur.


Models are representations of systems that are especially effective in
examining the consequences of “what if” scenarios. Within the context of
water system security, some examples of “what if” scenarios include the
following (Walski, 2003):

ƒ If an oil tank adjacent to a river ruptures and discharges to a river


used downstream as a source of raw water, when should the
utility close its water intake and for how long will they need to
keep the intake closed?
ƒ If a major main in the water system breaks, what happens to
pressure throughout the distribution system and will there be
sufficient flow and pressure to provide fire protection?
ƒ If runoff contaminates a particular well, what customers would
receive contaminated water and how quickly will the
contaminant reach them?

In the area of water system security, computer models have been


used to examine three different time frames:

• As a planning tool to look at what may happen in the future in


order to assess the vulnerability of a system to different types of
events and to plan how to respond if such an event occurs.
• As a real-time tool for use during an actual event to assist in
formulating a response to the situation.
• As a tool for investigating a past event so as to understand what
happened.

The characteristics of models used and the type of information that is


available in these three time frames can vary significantly. A water
distribution system model can be applied to a wide range of “what if”
scenarios to determine the general vulnerability of the distribution system.
For example, the model can be used to determine the effects of a major
pipe break or the impacts of a purposeful or accidental contamination of the
system. With this information in hand, a water utility is better equipped to
develop an effective plan of action.
A water distribution system model can be used to simulate flows and
pressures within a distribution system, and the movement and
transformation of a constituent after it is introduced into the distribution
system. In order to simulate the movement of a contaminant in a
distribution system, a hydraulic extended-period simulation (EPS) model of
the system is needed (Rao, 1977).
Water distribution system models have been proposed as part of a
3. CHAPTER 3 : Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling 49

real-time or near real-time system to assist in many aspects of the operation


of a water system including energy management, water quality
management, and emergency operation (Male, 1990). The major obstacle
in such use of water distribution system models is the requirement that the
model must be calibrated for a wide range of conditions and is ready to
apply quickly and easily in an extended-period simulation mode.
Information on the current state of the system must be readily available to
the model through direct ties to a SCADA system. In addition, the model
must be set up in an automated mode so that operation is represented by a
series of logical controls that reflect the existing operating procedures.
The key to using a model as part of a real-time response lies in
having the model ready to run. During an emergency, there is no time to
construct a model. There is only time to make some minor adjustments to
an existing model.

3.6 Using SCADA system for hydraulic modeling

SCADA systems enable an operator to remotely view real-time


measurements, such as the level of water in a tank, and remotely initiate the
operation of network elements such as pumps and valves. SCADA systems
can be set up to sound alarms at the central host computer when a fault
within a water supply system is identified. They can also be used to keep a
historical record of the temporal behavior of various variables in the system
such as tank and reservoir levels. Chapter 6 provides an in-depth
introduction to SCADA systems and their components.

3.7 Network optimization

Optimization, as it applies to water distribution system modeling, is


the process of finding the best, or optimal, solution to a water distribution
system problem. Examples of possible problems are the design of new
piping or determination of the most efficient pumping schedule. The typical
optimization problem consists of finding the maximum or minimum value
of an objective function, subject to constraints (Brdys, 1994). Chapter 9
and 10 will be donated to discuss this topic and the optimization of the
“Toulon Est” network.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 50

CHAPTER 4
4. Pressurized Water Network Modeling
and Simulation Softwares

4.1 Introduction

In the previous chapter we introduced the process of the water


distribution systems modeling, simulation, calibration, and optimization of
these systems. One perceived obviously that the realization of these
fundamental tasks, which aim to improve the efficiency of the system and
the service quality, is almost impossible - specially when it is about a rather
complex system - to analyze the system and to carry out the calculations
and to find the resolutions of the hydraulic equations in a traditional way,
and we can not understand the behavior of the system and the weak points
and find solutions and then choose the best one, this is before or after the
design of the system, from where results the need of tools which are
characterized by the efficiency, preciseness, speed and robustness and
which facilitate the task for the designer, the engineer, the manager, or the
operator of the system. Doubtless, the computer software packages supply
such tools.
Before the advent of computers, the analysis of even very simple
distribution systems relied on an engineer’s experience and very crude
theoretical models (Ulanicki, 2001). These models relied on gross
assumptions plus laborious and time-consuming calculations (WSS, 2002).
Since the 1970’s there has been a trend towards the use of digital
computers for network analysis. The availability of cheap processing
power, the general trend towards more automation in the industry and
integrated information technologies, means computer simulation can
provide an efficient way of predicting a system behavior.
But today, because of the multitude of the market software packages
for modeling of water distribution systems, the question which arises here
is that “Which software should I opt to resolve my problem?”.
However, I find that it is convenient to summarize in this research
work the main results of three interesting market studies that apprehend
software packages concern the modeling. The first and second studies are a
comparison between several software packages of the market, and the other
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 51

study is a comparison between FINESSE software and other software


packages.

Knowledge: It is indeed necessary that I declare here that the first study is
SCP property realized in November 2003 by Frank BESSEAT from
Engineering Division-SCP, the second one is prepared by CH2M HILL-
USA in 1999, and the third one is a property of De Montfort University,
UK -Water Software Systems (WSS) – realized in August 2000.

4.2 Market study for water distribution modeling softwares

4.2.1 Market study aims

For the DMU, this market study came about due to the forthcoming
release of FINESSE Water Network Modeling Suite. The fundamental aim
of this market study was to help WSS in providing input for the
development a business and marketing plan for FINESSE. This research
hopefully helps determine factors such as:

• FINESSE’s strengths
• FINESSE’s limitations
• Marketing strategy
• Pricing strategy
• Distribution methods
• Support and training

Most importantly this research provide suggestions on how WSS


should approach the modeling tool market and identify where FINESSE
fits in with the other water network modeling packages (WSS, 2000).
From the SCP’s point of view, firstly, the general purpose of study is
to create an exhaustive list of simulation and modeling softwares regarding
administrative data, global references, new technology implementation and
scope of technical functionalities developed by software companies
(Besseat, 2003).
Secondly, SCP, as an engineering and consulting company in water
industry, will have a full softwares market comparison. This comparison is
based on softwares evaluations and the result can be used to advise
potential overseas clients according to their specific constraints. The
market study focuses on comparison criteria. The aim is not to obtain a
classification of all the softwares but to gather useful information that will
be analyzed and compared to be used to choose a simulation and modeling
softwares for a new project or to operate an existing water network.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 52

Finally, this report hopefully provides suggestions on how a


Consultant or a Final Client should approach the Network Analysis
Software (NAS) and identify which essential criteria must be focused on
accordingly to their specific requirements.

4.2.2 Market studies tasks

Before moving into the main body of market study the first task was
to learn the basic concepts of water network modeling and simulation and
also the fundamentals of the FINESSE package. This was necessary to get
an understanding of the relevant information needed for the comparison of
the other modeling tools. The studies consisted of one main task along with
three associated subtasks.

¾ Main Task: Identify and analyze competitor products

The main task of the study was to identify products on the market.
The main parameters used to select the products were:

ƒ Availability of selected functionalities


ƒ Medium or long term experienced products,
ƒ Significant references around the world,
ƒ Global representation.

¾ Subtasks

a- Analyze competitor companies: Tying in with the above task,


there was a need to gather corporate information on the
developers of the competing softwares, such as turnover, profit,
parent company, number of staff, etc. Information about the
network modeling softwares market such as identifying whom
the market leaders, market share, and other softwares sold.

b- Analyze modeling/simulation features: This technical task


focuses on the engine features, the main functionalities
developed and the optional modules proposed.

c- Links with SCADA, GIS and Customer Management System:


Modern water production and distribution utilities require more
systematic handling of system complexities and provision of
more efficient guidelines for overall operations. The aim of this
task is to analyze the efforts provided to develop integrated
solutions with other main system of the network manager.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 53

4.3 Identifying and analyzing competitor products

The first stage of the market studies was to identify the other
packages on the market. Using initial information from SCP - mainly from
a market study supplied in 1997 to analyze the Water Colombo Network in
Sri Lanka and secondly from the research supplied in the field of
WaterCIME RDT project (WATERCIME, 1997), from De Monfort
University (DMU, 2000) and from CH2M HILL “Water Distribution
Hydraulic Model Selection” research, and also internet advanced research;
a preliminary list of water network distribution modeling packages was
drawn up. This initial list included:

ƒ AQUIS ƒ LIQSS
ƒ EPAnet ƒ NETBASE
ƒ FINESSE ƒ PICCOLO
ƒ GAnet ƒ StruMap
ƒ H2Onet ƒ SynerGEE Water
ƒ InfoWorks ƒ WaterCAD
ƒ IRMA
ƒ KYPIPE

4.3.1 Final product list

After some initial research it appeared that some of the names in the
initial list were not as prevalent in the current modeling tool market as first
expected. So then using primarily the Internet, more up-to-date modeling
packages were identified. A final list was then trimmed down to six
products for the purposes of the comparison.
This final list of products included a wide mixture of modeling tool
types and origins. From high-end American products such as WaterCAD,
H2Onet and SynerGEE, to new European products such as AQUIS and
InfoWorks and more established names such as PICCOLO.
PORTEAU is water network simulation software developed by
CEMAGREF (Bordeaux-France, 2002), that was not included in the
mentioned market studies and I will introduce it in this chapter.

4.3.2 Sources of Information

The following sources have provided the main basis for gathering
information:

- Knowledge within Water Software System: The basis of the


initial information came from the different members of WSS, in
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 54

particular all the information concerning FINESSE.


- Internet: Along with the internal WSS knowledge, Internet based
information has proved to be one the most extensive and useful
sources of information for the research. Most of the competitor
developers provided fairly comprehensive details of their
products on their respective websites.
- Company Literature: The second most useful source of data was
literature sent by the developers. However some of brochure
packs were sales orientated rather than technically orientated and
but generally did not offer more detail than available on the web
sites.

4.3.3 Product information

The following summaries provide a brief overview of each product


considered in the comparison.

AQUIS
A new modular based hydraulic simulation package with a very
strong focus on its ability to work in real-time and on-line. AQUIS has
been developed by the Danish Company Seven Technologies and is based
around the technology of two established platforms — LICwater and
WATNET.
>> (http://www.7t.dk/aquis).

H2Onet
An AutoCAD based package consisting of a very comprehensive
suite of tools. It has a strong emphasis on speed, ease of use, and also a
firm focus on network design and rehabilitation offering modules such as
Network designer and Advisor.
>> (http://www.mpact.com/page/p_product/net/net_overview.htm)

InfoWorks
InfoWorks is Wallingford Software’s Windows based successor to
Wesnet. But, notably InfoWorks hydraulic and quality simulation is still
heavily based around the WesNet simulation engine.
>> (http://www.wallingfordsoftware.com/products/infoworks/)

PICCOLO
An established name in the water network market, offering one the
largest choice of optional modules of any of the products in the
comparison, including water quality, costing, pipe sizing, transient analysis
and more. SAFÉGE make strong emphasis about PICCOLO’s Real-time
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 55

operation, its powerful user interface and its strong performance claiming
“PICCOLO uses the most efficient method available for resolving
problems in meshed networks”.
>>(http://www.safege.fr/wwwsafegefr/english/dom/logiciel/reseaux/
piccolo/atouts.htm)

SynerGEE Water
SynerGEE Water is Stoner’s successor to their original Stoner
Workstation Services. SynerGEE Water is based around the base
SynerGEE product developed for gas and electric and of course water.
Stoner makes the bold claim that “SynerGEE is the most advanced family
of network modeling and management application modules commercially
available”. Offered in modular format, SynerGEE has modules to allow
linking to Customer Information Systems, SCADA linking, main isolation
and model simplification.
>> (http://www.advantica.biz)

WaterCAD
Another high-end American developed software package that can be
used in conjunction with AutoCAD or bought as a standalone windows
program. Strong focus on ability to link to virtually any type of external
sources e.g. any database, spreadsheet, GIS, SCADA, etc. Also stresses on
ease of use and extensive data manipulation features.
>> (http://www.haestad.com/software/watercad/)

PORTEAU
To improve the distribution of drinking water the CEMAGREF
(Agricultural and Environmental Engineering Research Institute–
Bordeaux– France) developed a software called PORTEAU, which allows
to estimate the reliability of the drinking water distribution system and the
respect of the water quality standards. PORTEAU software also allows to
estimate the water pressure, its stagnation duration in the network, the
origins of this water or the disinfectants evolution in the network, such as
chlorine.
PORTEAU thus constitutes modeling tools for the steady state
behavior of pressurized meshed water supply and distribution networks. It
represents a decision-making aid for the management of water supply or
distribution networks (CEMAGREF, 2002).
Several modules of calculation are available; each one allows the
simulation of a particular use of the network. At present, the modules of
calculation associated with this graphical environment are:

• The module “Zomayet”: It allows to study, by an extended-period


4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 56

simulation (24 hours to 15 days), the hydraulic operation of a


water distribution system and visualize the results on its schema.
• The module “Opointe”: It allows simulating the operation of a
drinking water distribution system during peak-demand period
and visualizing the results on its schema.
• The module “Quality”: it allows simulating the spatial and
temporal evolutions of solution’s concentration through the
network. This module takes into account the legitimate
requirements of the subscribers who require today of the
manager, in the absence of hydraulic problems, that the quality of
water should be irreproachable.
>> (http://porteau.CEMAGREF.fr/)

4.3.4 Omitted products

Several important names were also not in the comparison. Here is the
explanation for few key-missing products. FINESSE and GAnet were
omitted from the comparison list, as they are university research based
products. Only commercial products were compared in the SCP and CH2M
HILL market study reports. But GANet and FINESSE are mentioned in
this report and summarized in this chapter as a showcase of the current
research way. KYPIPE, LIQSS and NETBASE are standalone product used
mainly by Consulting and Services companies for designing, simulating or
modeling small networks quickly and efficiently. Other missing product
that is well used by utilities is StruMap. It’s omitted from the final
comparison list because of a not clear commercial and support policy from
MVM Consultants Company.

GANet - Exeter University/Optimal Solutions


Another key missing product from the list was GAnet; the simulation
product based on the use of Genetic Algorithms developed by Exeter
University and commercially supported by Ewan Associates (the joint
venture is known as Optimal Solutions).
The Optimal Solutions set-up is of great interest to WSS simply
because it’s the only other organization that operates in a reasonably
similar fashion to WSS; i.e. research based with a commercial partnership.
Optimal Solutions appears to be the result of the joining of skills from
Exeter Universities and Ewan Associates – a water industry consultancy
firm. Optimal Solutions is an operating division of Ewan Associates, who
appear to be responsible for all the commercial aspects of GAnet.

GAcal
Optimal Solutions has produced a package called GAcal, which links
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 57

to STL’s StruMap GIS with its embedded HARP hydraulic solver.


GAcal’s, sibling GAnet, has already proved to be a highly effective tool for
planning the optimal strengthening, rehabilitation and operation of water
networks. GAcal, which may be applied by modelers who do not have
detailed GA background knowledge, is now available.
“As well as removing most of the routine and tedious aspects of the
job, GAcal will generally achieve better fits to the data and will adopt a
consistent approach that is more likely to highlight real inconsistencies and
problems”.

FINESSE
FINESSE is a well known product from SCP. FINESSE was
developed by Water Software Systems WSS – UK.
>> (http://www.eng.dmu.ac.uk/wssys/Software.htm)

StruMap Modeling
StruMap Modeling is Geodesys’s hydraulic modeling version of its
StruMap GIS package, using an EPANET based simulation engine
integrated with the GIS. StruMap Modeling offers a surprisingly
comprehensive range of modeling features including water quality, leakage
assessment, etc.
Geodesys firstly developed StruMap. Now the product is sold by
MVM Consultants plc. But, according to the web site, it seems that the
product is maintained but will probably not be developed more. Hence
StruMap was omitted from the comparison.
>> (www.geodesys.co.uk)

EPANET
One of the key names - EPANET was omitted from the comparison,
as it is a freeware product. EPANET is US Environmental Protection
Agency software well known by their hydraulic community. As a freeware,
there is no formal support or services offered for EPANET. It’s important
to notice that most of the products selected in this report are based on the
EPANET Engine.
>> (http://www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/wswrd/epanet.html)

NETBASE
Crowder and Co Ltd is an established firm of consulting engineers
and software developers, founded in 1985 – UK. The company offers
flexible and competitive services to developers, contractors, architects,
water utilities, local authorities and property services companies. Crowder
and Co developed NETBASE as an integrated management system for
water distribution and wastewater drainage networks. It provides the tools
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 58

to monitor performance in many different ways, to meet regulatory


requirements, to plan, develop and operate networks to suit the particular
strategies of the end user.
NETBASE has been developed and applied by Crowder and Co
analysts and engineers, and by major water utilities for more than 10 years.
It fulfils a simple but powerful concept of a single, integrated database and
software suite for the management of distribution and drainage systems. Its
interfaces with corporate data and with proprietary applications make it
both dynamic and flexible.
A team of programmers and analysts whose skills encompass server-
database technology, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), client
server systems and networks carries out its development and support.
>>(http://www.crowderconsult.co.uk/lang/en/netbase/content_pages/
database.htm)

KYPIPE
KYPIPE is a USA product sold by LLC Software Center in
Lexington, KY. KYPIPE offers a lot functionalities found in product
compared in this reports. There is also a SCADA interface providing some
very advanced capabilities for reviewing and modifying settings, which
affect the operation of the system, and launching an analysis using these
settings. The current version of KYPIPE is the 2000 version. LLC software
develops also Gas2000, Surge2000, Steam2000 and Goflow2000.
KYPIPE LCC and MWH software have a string partnership. Here is
a quote from LLC websites describing this partnership: “Whereas
Surge2000 and H2O SURGE provide identical analysis capabilities (they
actually utilize the same binaries) these programs are targeted at different
users. The programs are offered at a different price point, have different
support arrangements, and have different operational requirements.
Partnering with MWH Soft allows KYPIPE LLC to bring our software to a
market segment that we would not ordinarily reach”.
>> (http://www.kypipe.com)

LIQSS
A mention has to be made about LIQSS software which is one of the
four non-graphical steady-state and transient network analysis simulators
developed by Dr. Michael A. Stoner who launched Stoner Associates in
seventies. A lot of LIQSS licences still exist all around the world. But, now
the SynerGEE water product from Advantica will be the only one
commercialize.

IRMA-RAMI
“House” software developed by SCP-France. This program includes
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 59

some number of additional features developed for the proper necessities of


the SCP. This program is in FORTRAN and uses the SCP graphic library
(Bonnadier, 2000).

4.3.5 Developer information

The developers of the products in the comparison varied quite


noticeably in their structure, business intention’s and focuses. The
following passage shows that some the companies involved are research
and consultancy firms who have software divisions, or firms who
specifically provide software and solutions to the utilities markets. There
are also several exceptions to this rule in particular Ewan Associates,
Geodesys and Haestad Methods.

Advantica – USA – SynerGEE Water


Stoner Associates provide a very wide range of services and software
solutions to the natural gas, electric, water, and petroleum industries. They
have three locations in the US, one in the UK - Loughborough - and one in
Australia – Sydney.

Haestad Methods – USA – WaterCAD


Haestad Methods is quite unique in that its key area of work is in
developing software, literature and courses related specifically to water
management. Their software products include WaterCAD, SewerCAD,
StormCAD, WaterGEMS, Darwin Calibrator and Designer, LoadBuilder,
Skelebrator, WaterSAfe, Hammer, HEC-Pack, PondPack, CulvertMaster
and FlowMaster. The other key area of Haestad is the holding of seminars
and courses related to general water management issues and more
specifically on the use of their software products (like a training in Dubai in
February 2004 including a free modeling social part).

Montgomery Watson Software (MWSoft) – USA – H2ONet


MWSoft are a division of Montgomery Watson, who appear to be a
very large Worldwide services/consultancy/research group, in a similar
mould to that of WRc in the UK. However Montgomery Watson USA
cover a much broader area of work including environmental engineering,
applied research, construction and construction management, financing,
government relations and IT, where MWSoft is just one part. MWSoft also
has an IT solutions division and a specialist CAD group. MWSoft appears
to be specifically set-up for the development of water network modeling
products such as H2Onet. MWSoft has offices all around the world but
only US offices are detailed on the website.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 60

SAFÉGE – France – PICCOLO


SAFÉGE is another large environment consulting and engineering
practice specializing in the following areas:

ƒ Water Supply
ƒ Environment
ƒ Public Utilities Management
ƒ Regional Development

They also develop a wide range of applications including network


modeling, network draught and GIS tools. Notably, SAFÉGE also has
office locations on all five continents.

Seven Technologies – Denmark – AQUIS


Seven Technologies headquarter is located in Denmark. Recently,
Energy Solutions was representing the UK arm of Seven Technologies,
promoting and supporting AQUIS in the UK as they no longer develop
their own water network modeling tool (LICWater). But actually, Seven
Technologies has its own office in UK – Northallerton. The Third
representation of Seven Technologies is in Malaysia.

Wallingford Software – UK – InfoWorks


The Wallingford group appears to be a relatively large organization
that provides a range of services and products specifically for the water
industry. Wallingford group claims to be specialists in consultancy,
research and software for the water environment. It is split into two
segments, HR Wallingford which is the research and consultancy arm and
Wallingford Software which produce InfoWorks and is responsible for
developing and supporting other softwares for the water and sewage
industry. There are five Wallingford Software representations in the world,
but none in Africa or Middle East.

CEMAGREF – Bordeaux – France – Porteau


CEMAGREF is a public research institute whose work focuses on
sustainable development in non-urban areas. It contributes to the
conservation and acceptable management of land and water systems, the
prevention of associated risks and the development of sustainable economic
activity. CEMAGREF has been developed common scientific methods on
geographical information, modeling, and computing sciences. For many
years, CEMAGREF has been working in partnership with domestic water
supply operators to improve their water supply system management. A
suite of computer programs under the name PORTEAU has been written to
model piped water supply system operation and performance. The research
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 61

was done jointly with the post-graduate school of mathematics and


information technology at the University of Bordeaux and the post-
graduate school of engineering science at the Louis Pasteur University in
Strasbourg.

4.3.6 Criteria

A list of criteria was developed to compare the competitors. These


criteria have a strong marketing focus as well as focusing on the general
technical aspects of the software. The method for developing the criteria
was based around drawing up a large list of all the different features and
functionality of all the different packages, and then analyzing where
overlaps occurred, and trying to identify commonly occurring features and
functions.
The development of the criteria was an ongoing process with
numerous changes being made, even up until the completion of all the
tables. After much analysis, seven major criteria were identified, each with
their own set of sub-criteria. These seven criteria are as follows:

A- General software information


B- Hydraulic simulation
C- Water quality simulation
D- Additional analysis features
E- Data exchange tools
F- External system linking
G- User interface features

This following section explains the seven criteria and their respective
sub-criteria in more detail.

A. General software information

Criteria Summary: The first set of criteria looked at all the


significant non-technical information about the products. It is perhaps the
most important table for identifying a business strategy as this table gives
an idea on how each of the competitors is marketed, distributed, and
supported.

Note: Some questions have a simple Yes/No answer, whilst others required
a descriptive input. This applies throughout the entire criteria.
A.1 Product summary: A brief description about what the product is and
how it is aimed at the market.
A.2. Platform: The operating system(s) which product is designed to run
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 62

on e.g. Windows, UNIX, etc.


A.3. Modular configuration: Indicates if the product is sold in modules;
i.e. if the product is sold as a standard unit with optional modules available
at extra cost.
A.4. Basic simulation functions: Indicates which of the most common
simulation functions are available; i.e. if the product is sold as a standard
unit (hydraulic simulation) with optional basic functions available (water
quality simulation and surge simulation).
A.5 Optional modules: The additional modules/functionality that can be
added to the standard configuration at extra cost.
A.6 Additional 3rd party software: Additional softwares required to
operate the product.
A.7. Recommended specifications: The developer’s recommended
hardware specification(s) for running their software.
A.8 Pricing scheme: The method by which the company prices their
software, typically by number of links, or number of licences (or
combination). Also note that optional modules affect the pricing structure.
A.9 Distribution media: The format the product is delivered in e.g. CD,
Diskettes or Internet Download.
A.10 Customer support: Type of user support offered by company and
the format for support such as phone, fax or email.
A.11 Support costs: The cost passed on to the customer for user support
(support licences).
A.12 Training courses: Training courses available to end users of the
product.

B. Hydraulic simulation

Criteria summary: The technical details of the two main simulation


processes provided by the product – the technical details of hydraulic
simulation, and water quality simulation.
B.1 Simulation engine: The background simulation process being used to
simulate hydraulic models (for example: EPANET).
B.2 Steady state simulation: Indicates if product can perform steady state
(instantaneous) simulation.
B.3 Extended period simulation (EPS): Indicates if the product can
perform extended period simulation.
B.4 Offline analysis: Indicates if product can perform offline analysis.
B.5 Online analysis: Indicates the ability to perform hydraulic analysis
using on-line data from SCADA systems.
B.6 Real-time analysis: Indicates the ability to perform hydraulic analysis
in real-time using data from SCADA systems.
B.7 Max network size: An indication of the maximum network size that
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 63

hydraulic simulation can be executed.


B.8 Calculation speed: The Speed taken to calculate a typical network (if
available).
B.9 EPS control: Describes the type of control offered to the user during
EPS simulation, for example pausing, stopping, resuming, etc.

C. Water quality simulation

Criteria summary: This criterion looks at the technical details of


water quality simulation offered by the products.

C.1 Offered: Indicates if product offers water quality simulation in the first
place, and whether it is an optional module or standard.
C.2 Simulation engine: The background simulation process being used to
simulate water quality models for example EPANET (Typically the same
engine as for hydraulic simulation).
C.3 Steady state simulation: Indicates if the product can perform steady
state (instantaneous) water quality simulation.
C.4 Extended period simulation: Indicates if the product can perform
dynamic water quality simulation
C.5 Conservative substance propagation: States if the water quality
simulation can analyze the movement of conservative substances such as
Nitrates, Phosphates or Fluoride through the network.
C.6 Reactive substance propagation: States if the water quality
simulation can analyze the movement of reactive substances such as
Chlorine, through the network.
C.7 Water age calculation: Indicates if the water quality simulation can
calculate the age of water
C.8 Source tracing: Indicates the ability to identify origins of water in the
system.
C.9 Sediment analysis: States if the water quality simulation can analyze
the movement of sediment material through network.
C.10 Bacterial analysis: Indicates the ability to analyze and track of the
growth of bacteria in the system.
C.11 Substance conversion analysis: Indicates if the water quality
simulation allows for the conversion of substances from one state to
another.

D. Additional analysis features

Criteria summary: This criterion is the one of the largest of the set.
It highlights the additional analysis features and applications offered by the
software on top of the standard hydraulic (and quality) simulation. This
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 64

includes functions such as Calibration, Scheduling, Fire Flow analysis, etc.


It also indicates if these extra features are provided as standard or as
optional module.
D.1 Model calibration: Indicates if the product offers a model calibration
feature and whether it is an optional module or offered as standard.
ƒ Details: Any further information on calibration such as the
algorithms and methods used.
ƒ Automatic calibration: Indicates if the calibration is performed
automatically rather than manually.
ƒ Offline/online: If calibration can be performed online or offline
or both.
D.2 Scheduling (Optimization): Indicates if product offers a pump-
scheduling optimization feature.
D.3 Demand prediction: Indicates if the product offers a demand
prediction (future load forecasting) feature.
D.4 Cost analysis: (Yes/No) indicates if the product offers ability to
calculate operating costs.
ƒ Details: Further information on the costs that can be analyzed and
the tariffs that can be incorporated.
D.5 Pipe isolation analysis (shut off analysis): Indicates if the product
can analyze the effects of shutting off main pipes/nodes; i.e. identify which
valves to close and parts of the network will be affected.
D.6 Model simplification / skeletonization: Indicates if the product offers
a proper model simplification or model skeletonization feature.
ƒ Details: Highlights if the method used in model simplification
such as skeletonization, is a mathematical procedure, and any
further information provided by the developer about the feature.
D.7 Model extracting and merge: Indicates if product can perform sub
model management; i.e. the ability to extract model elements and merge
them. This feature is very closely related to simplification/skeletonization.
D.8 Fire/emergency analysis: Indicates if the product offers analysis of
fire/emergency scenarios; i.e. calculates necessary available pressure at
different parts of the network.
D.9 Leakage analysis: States if the product has a leakage analysis
function.
D.10 Transient/surge analysis: States if the product can analyze surges
events /transient phenomena within the distribution network
D.11 Network design optimization: Indicates if the product offers a
facility to determine design alternatives for the network distribution system
based on user criteria.
D.12 Pipe Sizing Analysis: Indicates if the product can calculate optimal
pipe diameter for given design and demand criteria.
D.13 Network reliability/failure analysis: Indicates if the product has a
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 65

feature that can analyze the effects of pipe or component failure on a


network; i.e. identify which parts of the network affected and possibly
identifies customers affected
D.14 Flushing analysis: This shows if the product can calculate flushing
schedules, to show which hydrants to open, and in what order so that
polluting material can be removed from the network.
D.15 Steady state pressure analysis: Indicates if the product can perform
steady state pressure analysis within a network.

Note: Simplification and Skeletonization:

A special note must be made about model simplification and


Skeletonization and the importance of being able to make a distinction
between the two. This was the hardest part of the criteria simply because it
was not easy to tell what each developer is claiming.
The following rule was used: if the product claims to be able to
reduce a hydraulic model and then re-allocate demand to other nodes in the
model, it was classed as simplification. Whereas skeletonization is
understood to be where the product simply trims or removes unwanted
nodes such dead end and small pipes – and then presumably a loss of
accuracy in the model.

E. Data exchange tools

Criteria summary: The table focuses on the product’s ability to


exchange information with databases, spreadsheets and windows programs,
etc. It also highlights the file formats for importing and exporting; network
model data input and the import of CAD drawings.
E.1 External database linking: Indicates if product can link to external
databases, and if it the feature is standard or optional.
E.2 Bi-directional link: Indicates if the product has a bi-directional link
with the external database(s); i.e. if the external database is updated
automatically if the simulation model is changed.
E.3 Method/details: method used to connect to databases.
E.4 Database’s supported: A list of the database(s) the product claims to
be able to link to.
ƒ Method: The method used to link to the external databases e.g.
ODBC, translator programs, command language, etc.
E.5 GIS linking: Indicates if product can link to external GIS and if it is a
GIS based product.
E.6 GIS systems/formats supported: A list of GIS format the product
claims to be able to link to.
E.7 Spreadsheet linking: Indicates if product can link to external
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 66

spreadsheet packages, and if it the feature is standard or optional.


E.8 Spreadsheets supported: A list of the spreadsheet package(s) the
product claims to be able to link to.
E.9 Data exchange with Windows programs: Highlights if the product
can exchange data with a variety of other windows based programs.
ƒ Programs supported: A list of the windows program(s) the
product claims to be able to exchange data with, such as
EPANET, Stoner, WATNET, etc.
E.10 Data import file format(s): File format(s) that the modeling tool is
capable of importing directly, for example ASCII, CSV.
E.11 Data export file format: The export file format(s) the product can
generate.
E.12 CAD drawing conversion: Indicates if the product can directly
import CAD files and convert them into network models/data.
ƒ Supported CAD formats: The CAD formats supported for the
above process.

F. SCADA system linking

Criterion summary: This table looks at the ability to link with


external systems in particular telemetry systems (SCADA).

F.1 SCADA linking: Indicates if product can link to SCADA system(s)


and if the feature is standard or optional.
F.2 SCADA systems supported: Brief description of the SCADA
systems/formats claimed to be supported by the product.
ƒ Method: The file format/method used to by the product to collect
SCADA data.
F.3 On-line SCADA link: Indicates if the product can capture online data
from SCADA (see notes below).
F.4 Real-time SCADA link: Indicates if the product can capture data from
SCADA in real time (See notes below).
F.5 Automatic SCADA data transfer: (Yes/No) indicates if the product
claims to automatically transfer SCADA data into the simulation model
database.
F.6 Logging equipment support: Indicates the ability to link to logging
equipment.

‰ SCADA online and real-time linking

Although seven out of the eight tools in the comparison claim to link
to SCADA systems a clear distinction needs to be made between a products
ability to link with SCADA systems in either on-line and real-time modes.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 67

• On-line linking
On-line linking refers to the product’s ability to capture historical
recorded data from SCADA that has been collected over a certain period of
time e.g. 24 hours or a week. The presumption can be made that any tool
that has SCADA linking can perform on-line collection of data as standard
as this is the basic function necessary of a SCADA connection.

• Real-time linking

Real-time linking is different as this refers to the collection of the


most recently measured values from SCADA with a delay of few minutes
(typically between 5-15 minutes). The term real-time is perhaps a little
misleading in water network modeling terms, as it is not instantaneous as it
first implies. The rule used for the assessment is that any product is capable
of obtaining recently measured values is capable of real-time SCADA
linking.

G. User interface tools

Criteria summary: The final set of criteria highlights the key


features offered in the user interface.

G.1 Scenario management: Indicates if the product offers scenario


management tools that helps the user to manipulate, reuse and save
scenarios.
G.2 EPS animation: Indicates if the product offers an animation feature
that helps the user to visualize dynamic simulation.
G.3 User definable units: Indicates if the product allows the user to create
their own new units or modify existing predefined units.
G.4 Color coding: Indicates if user interface offers color coding of model
attributes
ƒ Attributes: The attributes the user can choose for color-coding.
G.5 Contour maps: Highlights if the product can display contour maps
that graphically display findings
ƒ Attributes: The attributes the user can choose for displaying
contours.
G.6 Display background maps: Indicates if the product can display
background image maps below the network schematic such as those from
CAD, GIS or image files.
ƒ File formats: The file formats supported for displaying
background maps
G.7 Zooming: Indicates if the product offers the basic feature of zooming.
G.8 Panning: indicates if the product offers the basic feature of panning
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 68

(scrolling).
G.9 Multiple windows: Indicates if the product offers the feature of
multiple window displays.

4.4 General conclusions

¾ Choice of competitors
A question may be raised about the choice of competitors as several
of them are aimed at the top end of the market. Although the choice of
products may not be ideal, now that the criteria list has been created it
would be quite straightforward to add other products to the list.

¾ Application or actual function?


Because of wording used by the developers, it made it difficult to
decipher if a feature is a specifically designed application or something that
can be done by the user by combining various options. For example does a
calibration feature mean an estimation procedure, or an option to facilitate
“trial and error” calibration?.

¾ Marketing focus
Some of the information sources provided by the companies was
quite marketing orientated, focusing on the benefits rather than actual
details of operation. For example product X “can help to reduce this”, or
“can help to improve that”, etc. It appears that marketing aimed at higher
level, not engineers who use software. The only true exception was
SAFÉGE who made the effort to provide more technically orientated
information such maximum network size and speed of calculation
exception.

¾ Web based information


The most valuable source of information for the project has been the
use of the internet. Two developers clearly stated that they no longer
produce traditional marketing literature as the web allows the put-out as
much information and keep it updated more regularly. Presumably this is
also cheaper than producing glossy literature on a regular basis.

¾ US products
The two main American based softwares – H2Onet and WaterCAD
appear to offer very comprehensive functionality.

™ In Table 4.1 some of the softwares mentioned here above and their main
features are summarized:
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 69

Table 4.1 : General software information and features

WaterCAD
SynerGEE
Infoworks

FINESSE

Porteau
H2Onet

EPAnet
AQUIS

Piccolo
Software
Platform Windows Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Platform Unix N N N N N N N Y N
Water Quality Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y
3rd Party Software N Y N N N Y Y N N
Steady State Simulation Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Extended Period Simulation (EPS) Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Offline Analysis Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Online Analysis Y ? Y Y Y ? Y N N
Large Size Network Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Model Calibration Y Y Y Y N Y N N N
Scheduling (Optimization Y Y N Y N N Y N N
Demand Prediction Y N N N N N Y N N
Model Simplification Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N
Leakage Analysis Y N N N N N N N N
Transient/Surge Analysis Y N N Y N N N N N
Pipe Sizing Analysis Y N N Y N N N N N
SCADA linking Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N
Network design optimisation N Y N N N N N N N

Finally, the interested reader can refer to the original market studies
for further information and details.

4.5 Water distribution networks simulation and modeling


softwares at the SCP

As it was previously mentioned in Chapter 2, SCP has three


modeling and simulation softwares for pipe networks that it already used
but of which two are today not really installed in an operational way:

PICCOLO
‰
We had said that this software was never used in SCP to realize
hydraulic simulation studies on any of its networks. For more details about
this software and its tools and functionalities please refer to the market
Studies presented in this chapter.

FINESSE
‰
Developed by De Montfort University-UK. This software is the
modeling tools that will be used in this research work and it will be
describe in details in the next section.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 70

‰IRMA- RAMI
“House” softwares developed by SCP-France. A brief description of
this software is presented in the paragraphs hereafter.
This program, property of the SCP, was the object of numerous
evolutions in the course of years to answer the new necessities of the
different users as well designers as administrators of networks. This
software simulates the behavior of pressurized supply networks. It
calculates head at nodes and flows in pipes based on a description of the
network geometry, pipes, equipment and water demands.
This software is well adapted to study irrigation and distribution
networks, or more or less complex networks grouping several uses of water
(irrigation, industrial, drinking water, etc.). It can be used for design (sizing
of pipe diameters, tanks and other equipment) or for operation management
and diagnosis of existing networks (minimum pressures, infrastructure
capacities, saturation level, possible additional flows at specific points).
This program is written in FORTRAN and uses the SCP graphic library. In
the general case, the flows circulating in sections are calculated by
Clément’s law.
Besides, the program includes some number of additional features
developed for the proper necessities of the SCP. There are different
“bridges” between IRMA and the tools that constitute its immediate
environment in the SCP. An automatism of call of RAMI program of
optimal sizing of new branched connected with a general infrastructure.
This function allows calculating directly the diameters of new branches. It
is enough to describe the new branch(s) in the database file without
clarifying the diameters. The calculations of optimization will be launched
automatically and the database file updated with the diameters resulting
from calculations of RAMI.
In the other direction, an interface between RAMI program
(calculation of branched networks) and the IRMA program which allows
using the data of RAMI’s files for the modeling of SCP networks
containing loops. Also, a “bridges” were established between IRMA and
the SCP network database to create and to update models of IRMA from
valid data stored in the database. An interface is also available to create
data files for FINESSE software (Bonnadier, 2000).

4.6 FINESSE (WSS, 2002)

FINESSE « Fully Integrated Network Editing, Simulation, and


Scheduling Environment », the advanced modeling software from Water
Software Systems, is an on-line operational modeling environment, which
seamlessly integrates water-related software components with a database
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 71

and graphical user interface. FINESSE is presented here in details because


it will be used in this thesis. This software is intended for water engineering
and operators. An engineer may need to use the full range of facilities but
infrequently; while an operator may only be required to follow a predefined
scenario to schedule pump and valve controls (WSS, 2002).
Complementary modeling functions are integrated to solve
operational and design problems. FINESSE has four main modeling
functions: hydraulic simulation, demand prediction, operational scheduling,
and model simplification. These functions share data through a common
database. They share a Microsoft Windows user interface. They also share
data processing and communications functions to interface and exchange
data with other systems, including Supervisory Control, Automation and
Data Acquisition systems for on-line applications. The overall software
architecture and main functions are shown in Figure 4.1.
The architecture was first published in 1998. Since then more
modeling functions have been added, the software has been converted to
Microsoft Windows operating systems and experience has been gained
from further case studies. Some of the functions are based on software
products, which have been used by industry for some time and others are
the result of recent research. The modeling functions are described in the
following subsections.

Microsoft Windows Interface

Model Model Network Demand Network Model SCADA


Builder Simulator Predictor Scheduler Simplifier Interface SCADA
Data
Files

GINAS GIDAP CONOPT

Modeling Database

Figure 4.1 : FINESSE architecture

a) Network simulation
This provides steady state hydraulic simulation, and extended-period
simulation (e.g. over a 24 hours horizon). It calculates time-profiles of
flows, velocities, headloss, pressures and heads, reservoir levels, reservoir
inflows and outflows and operating costs. The input data include network
topology and component parameters, water demands and control variables.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 72

The calculation engine is a third party software called GINAS


“Graphical and Interactive program for Network Analysis and Simulation”
for water distribution system, which since the 1980s, has been applied by
many water companies to many networks. It is also possible to integrate
other simulation engines if needed.

b) On-line network simulation


This is a special configuration of the network simulation function for
on-line application. It performs steady state hydraulic simulation using the
most recently measured state of the network as the initial condition. The
Network Simulator is configured to automatically acquire data including
reservoir levels, flows and pressures from a SCADA system. It then
performs a simulation over a predefined time horizon.

c) Network scheduling
Pumps, valves and water works outputs are scheduled to minimize
the total water production and distribution costs, typically over a time
horizon of one or more days. The schedules conform to practical operating
requirements defined by constraints on variables such as pressures,
reservoir levels, flows, etc.
Non-linear hydraulic models are used to calculate least cost
schedules, even for large networks. Such models are accurate over wide
ranges of operating conditions, which is particularly important in the
analysis of operating constraints. The scheduler can use network simulation
models directly. The FINESSE Pump Scheduler will later be presented in
detail in Chapter 9 of this thesis.

d) Demand prediction
Water demand patterns and volumes are predicted from historical
flow time series. Typically, 6 weeks of historical data are required to setup
the prediction model, which is based on categorization of demand patterns
and a triple exponential smoothing algorithm. Thereafter, the software
predicts future patterns of demand (e.g. for 1 to 7 days at 15 minute
intervals) from recently acquired time series. FINESSE can be configured
to acquire data on-line for a number of zones and then predict demands
patterns for each of them. Alternatively, it can be used to analyze historical
flow time series off-line. The prediction software was first used in the
1980s, and has been applied successfully to a number of networks. WSS
has also applied a number of other methods to water demand and leakage
prediction, including Box Jenkins methods and artificial neural networks.
FINESSE Demand Prediction will later be presented in detail in Chapter 8
of this thesis.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 73

e) Model simplification
The model simplifier automatically calculates simplified models
directly from detailed ones. The simplified models contain all key
components and critical pressure nodes chosen by the user. The results are
typically accurate to within 2% of the original models for comparable
quantities. Simplified models can be used directly in either simulation or
optimization and they can be recalculated from the detailed models at any
time and for any given reason, such as if there are any changes to the
network. The simplifier is based on a Gaussian elimination procedure.

f) Pressure control
This is a tool to calculate optimal pressure profiles directly from
simulation models of a network. The profiles are calculated to minimize
leakage whilst maintaining specified head constraints at each node of the
network. The pressure control module can be applied to large pressure
management areas of any configuration.

™ FINESSE - general features

- Model data: model data are stored in a single database and are
shared seamlessly between the modeling functions. Models can be built and
edited interactively using FINESSE model building features. The network
schematic is created by “drag and drop” from a palette of standard model
components.

- User interface: FINESSE has a comprehensive windows user


interface based on a schematic of the network.

- Software integration: FINESSE is developed in the Boorland C++


Builder environment, which supports direct access to all major database
management systems through ODBC, COM, etc, and the internet through
TCP/IP. Data can be exchanged with other information systems to meet
specific water company requirements. Tried and tested modeling packages
are integrated within FINESSE including GINAS and GAMS / CONOPT.
Other computational modules can be added if required. WSS has the
expertise to write interface to various computational engines.

- SCADA gateway: provides an interface to SCADA systems for on-


line applications. The user specifies the data servers and the mnemonics for
the on-line variables in a simple look-up table. The table also maps the
variables to model parameters. FINESSE can also be interfaced to other
SCADA and telemetry systems either through CIMVIEW or directly.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 74

- Model import: imports data files of other modeling packages and


automatically builds the FINESSE database. So far import options for
GINAS, EPANET and WATNET have been implemented. These files have
also been used as an intermediate interface with GIS systems that export
these formats. Other import formats will be added if required.

- Model dimensions and calculation performance: FINESSE


currently has a maximum model size of 10,000 nodes but the dimensions
may be increased if required. Calculation times depend on the type of
application, model dimensions, model timestep and a number of other
model features.

- Hardware requirements: Most standard PCs running Windows 95+


or NT will be adequate. A minimum of 128MB RAM is recommended.

™ Primary FINESSE drawbacks

It was felt that the biggest differences between FINESSE and the
other softwares lied in these following areas:

• Water quality : FINESSE’s biggest omission appears to be its


lack of water quality simulation that is offered by all competitor
products in this comparison.
• GIS linking : This was another feature that was found on all
products. No GIS linking means FINESSE is unable to extract
and import network data from GIS systems or display GIS
background maps.
• Data exchange tools : Compared with some of the other
products FINESSE has quite limited exchange of data with other
standard databases such as Access and Oracle. It also lacks the
ability to import and convert CAD drawings. Overall FINESSE
lacks the degree of “openness” shown by some of the packages
here, in particular WaterCAD.
• Model data import : Another aspect of FINESSE’s lack of
openness is its inability to directly import models/data from other
modeling package. This could be a major issue for users of
existing packages wishing to migrate onto FINESSE.
• True real-time hydraulic simulation : Another important
feature missing from FINESSE is the ability to perform real-time
hydraulic simulation. Several of the competitors offered the
ability to perform true real-time analysis using live SCADA data
rather than use captured historical on-line data as found in
FINESSE.
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 75

• Limited node capacity : FINESSE may also suffer from its


limited maximum network size capability. This was highlighted
by PICCOLO that claimed to be able to model up 65,000 node
models.
• Main isolation : FINESSE does not offer the user with the
specific facility to analyze the effects the closure of a main
pipe/node. This was an unexpectedly common feature offered by
three other products – all as optional modules.

™ Secondary FINESSE drawbacks

Other less significant (but still useful) features lacking in FINESSE


but are relatively common in the other packages included:

• Linking to customer, billing and postcode information


• Scenario Management
• User Command Language
• Contour Maps
• Background maps
• Animation

™ FINESSE STRONG POINTS

• Demand prediction : FINESSE was one of only two products in


the comparison that offered a demand prediction feature. The
other – AQUIS, gave very little information about its “load
forecasting” feature, and very little known about how it works or
its accuracy.
• True model simplification : FINESSE offers true model
simplification with a known level of high model reduction
accuracy. This is a strong point because the others do not state
the accuracy lost when reducing hydraulic models. More
importantly it is not a skeletonization process that simply trims
excessive unwanted pipes.
• Scheduling : Although offered by several other packages,
FINESSE offers a known high level of accuracy with its
scheduling feature.
• Module integration : FINESSE offers a high level of integration
between all its “modules”.
• Network design (drag and drop) : Offered as standard.
• Complex tariffs : The assessment on FINESSE carried out by
South Staffordshire Water Company-UK found that FINESSE
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 76

has ability to deal with complex tariffs.


• Use of complete hydraulic model for scheduling : Again as
stated by Jay Mistry at South Staffordshire Water Company,
FINESSE has the ability to incorporate the complete hydraulic
model, important for accurate scheduling.
• Seven-day extended period simulation : FINESSE offers a
seven day simulation period which appears to be longer than
most.
• Pressure control feature in future : FINESSE has the potential
feature in future of steady-state pressure control analysis, which
would appears to be unique, however as we have seen PICCOLO
and AQUIS already provide transient analysis of networks.
• Ease of use.

Figure 4.2 : FINESSE interface

Toulon Est network model

4.7 EPANET Software

I will also briefly introduce EPANET software because it will be


used later to perform some calibration work. EPANET is a freeware
computer program that performs extended period simulation of hydraulic
and water quality behavior within pressurized pipe networks. EPANET
tracks the flow of water in each pipe, the pressure at each node, the height
4. CHAPTER 4 : Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares 77

of water in each tank, and the concentration of a chemical species


throughout the network during a simulation period comprised of multiple
timesteps. In addition to chemical species, water age and source tracing can
also be simulated. Running under Windows, EPANET provides an
integrated environment for editing network input data, running hydraulic
and water quality simulations, and viewing the results in a variety of
formats. These include color-coded network maps, data tables, time series
graphs, and contour plots. EPANET contains a state-of-the-art hydraulic
analysis engine that includes the following capabilities (Rossman, 2000):

ƒ Placing no limit on the size of the network that can be analyzed.


ƒ Computing friction headloss using the Hazen-Williams, Darcy-
Weisbach, or Chezy-Manning formulas.
ƒ Including minor headloss for bends, fittings, etc.
ƒ Modeling constant or variable speed pumps.
ƒ Computing pumping energy and cost.
ƒ Modeling various types of valves including shutoff, check,
pressure regulating, and flow control valves.
ƒ Allowing storage tanks to have any shape (i.e. diameter can vary
with height).
ƒ Considering multiple demand categories at nodes, each with its
own pattern of time variation.
ƒ Modeling pressure-dependent flow issuing from emitters
(sprinkler heads)
ƒ Can base system operation on both simple tank level or timer
controls and on complex rule-based controls.

In addition to hydraulic modeling, EPANET provides other water


quality modeling capabilities (Rossman, 2000).
The method used in EPANET to solve the flow continuity and
headloss equations that characterize the hydraulic state of the pipe network
at a given point in time can be termed a hybrid node-loop approach which
will be introduced in the next chapter.
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 78

CHAPTER 5
5. Methods for Solving Water Pipe
Networks Problem

5.1 Introduction

An important element in the examination of many physical systems


is the ability to formulate and solve a variety of mathematical models.
Water networks are large scale and non-linear systems (Chenoweth, 1974).
The operational control of such system has posed difficulties in the past to
the human operator that had to take the right decisions, such as pumping
more water or closing a valve, within a short period of time and quite
frequently in the absence of reliable measurement information such as
pressure and flow values. Computer simulations of such systems have
alleviated these difficulties. They allowed “what-if” scenarios to be run by
the manager or operator, giving him the possibility to know in advance the
operational problems that can arise in the real-life networks due to
malfunctions of valves or burst in pipes.
Industry and academia have made a significant investment in the
research and development of computer algorithms for the design, modeling
and control of water distribution (AWWA, 1987). The industrial use of
many of these algorithms is commonplace but there are no standards for
their evaluation. Numerical algorithms are complex software procedures
used to solve systems of equations. Owing to their complexity, it is difficult
to compare different algorithms directly, or to verify that they provide
correct results.
Today, fast computers and efficient computational algorithms make
both large and small system modeling feasible. Water distribution software
using sparse matrix algorithms can solve these large systems with
reasonable runtimes compared to a few years ago, when such analyses were
impractical. One element to be considered when selecting a hydraulic
model is that computer programs differ in their mathematical formulations
(Haestad Methods, 1997).
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 79

5.2 Conceptual model of a water network

A conceptual model of a water network can be presented as an input-


output system in Figure 5.1 (Rance, 2002). Control Schedules are pump,
valve and source schedules. Demands are node outflows representing water
consumption. Initial Conditions are the initial reservoir levels. Output
comprises heads at nodes, flows in elements, and operating costs. Water
network mathematical model is the set of mathematical equations modeling
the behavior of the physical system. Connections between components are
described by topology, which for example can be represented by a node-
branch incidence matrix. It is useful to distinguish between “basic two
terminal components” with regular characteristics and “complex
components” with local control loops that potentially have irregular (non-
monotonic, non-smooth) characteristics. The two terminal components are
described by an equation relating component flow and the headloss. For the
complex components the origin and destination heads may appear
explicitly as separate variables. Basic components are reservoirs, pipes,
valves, and pumps. Complex components with local control loops are
control elements such as pressure reducing valves, pressure sustaining
valves, pressure control pumps.

Control Schedules
Output
Water Network Pressures
Demand Flows
Mathematical
Costs
Model
Initial Conditions

Figure 5.1 : Conceptual model

Water networks often have control loops in order to achieve the


desired behavior of the network. The control loops can be local, e.g. around
pressure reducing valves (PRVs) or global, e.g. a pump controlled by a
reservoir level. In the first case the local control loop can be masked and
the component together with the control loop can be represented as a
complex component. These control loops can not be included within a
component characteristic and have to be considered as a separate part of the
model. It is important to understand the behavior of the basic network
(basic components) before considering control loops. In a computer
implementation, a water network model is represented by a set of network
data (values of parameters) and a set of equations (physical operation of the
model).
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 80

5.3 Fundamental mathematical model

The fundamental model is formulated using the laws of physics.


Subsequently, different models can be derived by mathematical
manipulation. For water network models three physical laws are employed:
flow continuity, headloss continuity, and component equations (head/flow
law), as follows (DMU, 1999):

dh r
= − S − 1 (hr ) q r (t ) Reservoir equation (Eq. 5.1)
dt

Δh = R q n Component equation (Eq. 5.2)

Λq = − d Mass balance equation (Eq. 5.3)

⎡Δh f ⎤
ΓΔ h = ⎢ ⎥ Energy balance equation (Eq. 5.4)
⎣0 ⎦

Where:
hr = vector of reservoir heads (m)
S (hr ) = area of the reservoir at hr level (m2)
qr = vector of net reservoir outflow (m3/s)
Δh = component headloss vector (m)
q = branch (component) flow vector (m3/s)
d = demand flow vector (m3/s)
R = component resistance matrix (sn/m3n-1):

⎡ r1 0 ... 0 ⎤
⎢0 r2 ... ... ⎥
R = ⎢ ⎥ ( Eq . 5 .5 )
⎢ ... 0 ... 0 ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣0 ... 0 rb ⎦

⎡Λ f ⎤
Λ = ⎢ ⎥ = n x b node-branch incidence matrix
⎣Λ c ⎦
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 81

This incidence matrix has a row for every node and a column for
every branch (component) of the network. Two nonzero entries for each
column +1 and -1 indicate the beginning and end of the branch
respectively.

Λ c = nc x b connection node incidence matrix as above


Λ f = nf x b fixed grade node incidence matrix as above
⎡Γ f ⎤
Γ = ⎢ ⎥ = (f+l) x b loop-branch incidence matrix that has a row
⎣Γl ⎦
for every fixed grade pseudo-loop and for every primary loop and a column
for every branch (component) of the network. Two non-zero entries (+1)
and (-1) in each row indicate orientation of the branch to go with or against
the loop orientation.

Γf = f x b fixed grade pseudo-loop incidence matrix

Γl = l x b Primary loop-branch incidence matrix

Δ h f = headloss vector on fixed grade pseudo-loop where a fixed


grade pseudo-loop is a chain of branches between the pseudo-datum node
and any other fixed grade node. The vectors of reservoir heads and the
vector of junction node heads can be combined into one vector of nodal
heads:

h = hr[ T
hc
T
]
T
( Eq . 5 .6 )

There are Hazen-Williams Formula, Darcy-Weisbach Formula, and


Chezy-Manning Formula in water distribution network to calculate
headloss Δ h (Rossman, 2000), the general formula is:

Δ h = Rq n
(Eq. 5.7)
Where:
R = pipe’s resistance, depends on pipe diameter and length, and how
rough the pipe inner surface:

10 . 7 L
-For Hazen-Williams Formula : R = ( Eq . 5 .8 a )
C 1 . 852 D 4 .87
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 82

8 fL
-For Darcy-Weisbach Formula : R = ( Eq . 5 .8 b )
gπ 2D 5

10 . 33 m 2 L
-For Chezy-Manning Formula : R = ( Eq . 5 .8 c )
D 5 .33
Where:
q = flow rate (m3/s)
D = pipe diameter (m)
L = pipe length (m)
C = Hazen-Williams C-Factor (dimensionless)
f = Darcy-Weisbach friction factor (dependent on pipe
roughness, diameter, and flow rate, and its dimensionless)
m = Manning roughness coefficient
n = 1.852 for Hazen-William and 2.0 for Darcy-Weisbach and
2.0 for Chezy-Manning

In reality, the pipe C-Factor “C” used in Hazen-Williams formula’s


is not constant. It vary depends on pipe diameter and flow rate variation.
Thus if use Hazen-William formula and assume “C” as constant, the result
will not be accurate. But in actual application the error of assuming “C”
value, as constant and use Hazen-Williams formula will not affect design
result significantly, moreover since the formula is simpler, convenience to
calculate, thus general engineering application still use Hazen-Williams
formula at large (Ming-Chang Tsai, 2002).
The Darcy-Weisbach equation is valid for fully developed, steady
state and incompressible flow. The friction factor (f) depends on the flow,
if it is laminar, transient or turbulent, and the roughness of the pipe. The
friction factor can be calculated by using the Moody Diagram or by the
Colebrook equation (Finnemore, 2001).
The work of Lewis F. Moody, Professor, Hydraulic Engineering,
Princeton University, and the Moody Diagram, has become the basis for
many of the calculations on friction loss in pipes, ductwork and flues
(Moody, 1944). The Moody Diagram can be used as a graphical solution of
the Colebrook equation.
The friction factor of commercial pipes is described by a semi-
empirical equation developed by Colebrook. This equation that expresses
the friction factor as a function of relative roughness and Reynolds number
(Re) is an implicit one requiring a trial-and-error procedure for its
determination (Jerry, 2002). There are tools available today that allow
solution of the Colebrook equation, in both its implicit forms and explicit
forms, without using the graphical approach (Lester, 2003).
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 83

‰ Implicit Forms of Colebrook:

Friction factor is calculated, generally, by any one of the implicit


equation of Colebrook (Colebrook, 1937). There are at least three forms of
the Colebrook equation that can be found in current literature on hydraulics
(Lester, 2003). These are:

1 ⎛ ε 2 . 51 ⎞
= − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟ ( Eq . 5 .9 a )
f ⎜ 3 . 7 D Re f ⎟
⎝ ⎠

1 ⎛ 2ε 18 . 7 ⎞
= 1 . 74 − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟ ( Eq . 5 .9 b )
f ⎜ D Re f ⎟
⎝ ⎠

⎛ ⎞
⎜ ⎟
1 ⎛D⎞ 9 . 3
= 1 .14 + 2 Log ⎜ ⎟ − 2 log ⎜ 1 + ⎟ ( Eq . 5.9c )
f ⎝ε ⎠ ⎜ ⎛D⎞ ⎟
⎜ Re ⎜ ⎟ f ⎟
⎝ ⎝ε ⎠ ⎠
Where:
f = friction factor (dimensionless)
ε = absolute pipe roughness (mm)
D = inner diameter (mm)
* Note:- (ε /D) is the relative roughness and is dimensionless.

Re = Reynolds Number (dimensionless):


4q
Re = ( Eq . 5 . 10 )
πD ν
ν = water kinematic viscosity (1.0x 10-6 m2/s at 20 °C)

These equations can be solved for ( f ), given the relative roughness


(ε/D) and the Reynolds Number (Re), by iteration.

‰ Explicit Forms of Colebrook:

To make the solution of Colebrook equation easier, some great


engineers developed explicit expressions for the friction factor and there
were many explicit expressions. Out of those, the following are the famous
equations (Chen, 1976), (Churchill, 1976), (Jain, 1976), (Chen, 1976) ,
(Swamee, 1976), (Wood, 1977), (Zigrang, 1982), and (Serghides, 1984).
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 84

1. Serghides equation (for Re > 2,100 and any ε/D)

⎡ ( B − A)
2
⎤ ⎫ −2

f = ⎢A − ⎥ ⎪
⎣ (C − 2 B + A ) ⎦ ⎪

⎛ ε 12 ⎞ ⎪
A = − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟

⎝ 3 .7 D Re ⎠
⎬ (Eq . 5 . 11 a )
⎛ ε 2 . 51 A ⎞ ⎪
B = − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟
⎝ 3 .7 D Re ⎠ ⎪⎪
⎛ ε 2 . 51 B ⎞ ⎪
C = − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎟⎪
⎝ 3 .7 D Re ⎠ ⎭

2. Moody equation (4,000 < Re < 107 and ε/D < 0.01)

⎛ ⎛ ε 106 13⎞
⎞ ⎟
f = 5.5 ×10−3 ⎜1 + ⎜⎜ 2 ×104 + ⎟⎟ (Eq. 5.11b)
⎜ ⎝ D Re ⎠ ⎟
⎝ ⎠

3. Wood equation (Re > 4,000 and any ε/D)

⎛ε ⎞
0.225
⎛ε ⎞ ⎛ε ⎞
0.44

f = 0.094⎜ ⎟ + 0.53⎜ ⎟ + 88⎜ ⎟ a
Re ⎪
⎝ D⎠ ⎝D⎠ ⎝D⎠ ⎪
0.134 ⎬ ( Eq. 5.11c)
⎛ε ⎞ ⎪
a = − 1.62⎜ ⎟ ⎪
⎝D⎠ ⎭
4. Jain Equation (for 5,000 < Re < 107 and 0.0000 4 < ε/D < 0.05)

1 ⎛ε 21 . 25 ⎞
= 1 . 14 − 2 . 0 Log ⎜ + ⎟ ( Eq . 5 . 11 d )
f ⎝D Re 0 .9 ⎠

5. Swamee and Jain Equation (for Re > 4,000 and ε/D < 0.02)
0 . 25
f = 2
( Eq . 5 . 11 e )
⎡ ⎛ ε 5 . 74 ⎞⎤
⎢ Log ⎜ + 0 .9 ⎟⎥
⎣ ⎝ 3 . 7 D Re ⎠⎦
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 85

6. Churchill Equation (for all values of Re and ε/D)

⎛ ⎛ 8 ⎞ 0 .5 ⎞
1
12 ⎫
1 ⎪
f = 8⎜ ⎜ ⎟ + ⎟
⎜ ⎝ Re ⎠
⎝ ( A + B )1 .5 ⎟



⎛ ⎛ 7 ⎞ 0 .9
16

0 . 27 ε ⎞⎟ ⎪
A = − 2 . 457 Ln ⎜ ⎜ +
⎜ ⎝ Re ⎟⎠ ⎬ ( Eq . 5 . 11 f )
⎝ D ⎟⎠ ⎪
16 ⎪
⎛ 37530 ⎞ ⎪
B =⎜ ⎟
⎝ Re ⎠ ⎪
⎪⎭

7. Chen Equation (for all values of Re and ε/D)

1 ⎛⎛ ε ⎞ 5.0452 A ⎞ ⎫
= −2.0 Log ⎜⎜ ⎜ ⎟− ⎟⎟ ⎪
f ⎝⎝ 3 . 7065 D ⎠ Re ⎠⎪
⎛ ⎛ ε ⎞1.10987 ⎞ ⎪⎪
⎜⎜ ⎟ ⎟ ⎬ ( Eq. 5.11g )
⎜⎝ D⎠ ⎛ 5.8506 ⎞ ⎟ ⎪
A = Log ⎜ + ⎜ 0.8981 ⎟ ⎟ ⎪
2.8257 ⎝ Re ⎠⎟
⎜ ⎪
⎜ ⎟ ⎪⎭
⎝ ⎠

8. Zigrang and Sylvester Equation (for 4,000 < Re < 108 and
0.00004 < ε/D < 0.05)

1 ⎛ ε 5.02 A ⎞ ⎫
= −2.0 Log ⎜ − ⎟ ⎪
f ⎝ 3.7 D Re ⎠ ⎪
⎬ ( Eq. 5.11h)
⎛ ε 5.02 ⎛⎛ ε 13 ⎞ ⎞ ⎞⎪
A = Log ⎜⎜ − Log ⎜⎜ ⎜ + ⎟ ⎟⎟ ⎟⎟
⎝ 3 . 7 D Re ⎝⎝ 3 . 7 D D ⎠ ⎠ ⎠⎪⎭

The Chezy-Manning formula is more commonly used for open


channel flow that is out of the scope of this study.
The fundamental mathematical model of water networks can be seen
as a non-linear differential algebraic equation (DAE) system, where
equation (5.1) is the differential part describing the dynamics of the model,
equations (5.2), (5.3), and (5.4) are representing the static model, where
equations (5.2) and (5.4) are non-linear algebraic equations, and equation
(5.3) is linear equation. In order to solve this dynamic model it is necessary
to calculate the right-hand side of the differential equation (5.1). This in
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 86

turn requires solution of a system of algebraic equations (5.2), (5.3), and


(5.4) - the static model.
Irrespective of the numerical procedure used, the simulation of water
networks has led to the development of many methods of network flow
analysis using various types of decompositions. Each decomposition
expresses the resulting system of equations in terms of a specific type of
independent variables. In the literature there are several types of models
derived from the fundamental model, depending on which variables and
which equations have been used (Ulanicka, 1998). The flow models have
branch flows or loop flows for unknown variables. The nodal model has
nodal heads for unknown variables and finally the mixed (or hybrid) model
has both branch flows and nodal heads as the unknown variables. The
numerical algorithms for solving the non-linear equations are based on
iterative techniques, e.g. Newton-Raphson (Brenan, 1989) where during
each iteration; a system of linear equations is solved. These methods are
commonly used to solve one of the four formulations of the continuity and
energy equations that are necessary in implementing hydraulic modeling
software. The four systems of equations and models are as follows:

A- Branch Flow Model (BFM)

Where equations describing mass continuity (flow in = flow out) at


each junction are coupled with headloss equations around each loop in the
network. This method produces two separate sets of equations to be solved:
linear junction equations and nonlinear loop equations. The total number of
equations, which must be solved simultaneously, equals the number of
branches (or pipes). Therefore, programs using the BFM often take a long
time to complete the system calculations:
Λc q = − d ⎫

⎡Δh f ⎤ ⎬ (Eq. 5.12)
Γ R qn = ⎢ ⎥ ⎪
⎣0 ⎦ ⎭
The branch flows q are the unknown variables.

B- Nodal Model (NM)

Where the Hydraulic Gradient Line (HGL) elevations at nodes are


solved simultaneously. Unfortunately, all nodal model equations developed
are nonlinear, but there are fewer equations to solve than with the branch
flow model, because no loop equations must be solved:

Λc (GΛT h)−n =− d (Eq. 5.13)


5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 87

Where G=1/R is the component conductance matrix. The node heads


h are the unknown variables.

C- Loop Flow Model (LFM)

Where the program assumes an initial value for flows through a loop
and iteratively solves for the unknown corrective flow rate around each
loop. Obviously, there are fewer loops than with either pipes or junctions,
so the matrix created by the LFM formulation is smaller than with either of
the other methods:
⎡Δhf ⎤
ΓR qn (ql , q f ) = ⎢ ⎥ (Eq. 5.14)
⎣0 ⎦
The unknown variables are flows in fundamental loops ql and
pseudo-loops qf. The algorithm requires a complex procedure for finding
the loops.

D- Mixed Model (MM)

Known also as Hybrid Model (Hamam, 1971), which uses a


combination of features associated with the nodal model and the loop flow
model:
⎧Λc q = − d
⎨ n (Eq. 5.15)
⎩R q = Λ h
T

The branch flows q, and nodal heads h, are the unknown variables.

These four models are present in the formulation of other application


tasks such as network design, optimization, simplification or state
estimation. In order to asses the relative merits of the different formulations
for solving large pipe network problems, the comparison can be made in
terms of simplicity of input, initial solution, size of the system of linear
equations and efficiency of solution of the system of equations. The
balance of these merits made the combination of the nodal heads and the
Newton-Raphson algorithm to be the most frequently used procedure for
solving water networks. Extended time simulations which are used to
evaluate system performance over time and allows the human operator to
model tanks filing and draining, valves opening and closing, have been
implemented based on nodal heads equations. Finally, the combination of
the Newton-Raphson method and the loop corrective flows is called the
loop system of equations. Over the last decade the numerical simulations
based on loop equations have received an increased attention. It has been
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 88

shown that using the loop equations is a suitable framework for the
inclusion of pressure-controlling elements without specifying the
operational state of the network (Arsene, 2004).

5.4 Theoretical properties of the mathematical model

The differential part of the fundamental model is described by


equation (5.1), and equations (5.2), (5.3), and (5.4) represent the algebraic
part. The theoretical properties that have direct practical significance are
(Ulanicka, 1998):

™ Existence of the solution (i.e. do one or more solutions exist?)


™ Index of the model (i.e. is the Jacobian matrix nonsingular?)
™ Stability (i.e. can a hydraulic model become unstable?)

Models of water networks are non-linear systems analogous to


electrical networks. Some results can be almost directly transferred from
the theory of electrical networks. The equivalent result for a water network
can be formulated as follows:

ƒ Theorem 1 (Existence theorem): “The static model (Eq. 5.2, 5.3, and
5.4) of a network comprising reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps, has
one and only one solution for branch flows and nodal heads”.
o Proof: The proof is accomplished by identifying the
corresponding elements in water networks and electrical
networks and by checking that pipes, valves and pumps have
strictly monotonically increasing head/flow characteristics.
ƒ Theorem 2 (Index theorem): The DAE model of a water network
consisting of reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps, has an index equal
to 1.
o Proof: The proof is accomplished by investigating the Jacobian
of the algebraic part of the model, and by checking that the
Jacobian of (Eq. 5.2, 5.3, and 5.4) is a nonsingular matrix.
ƒ Theorem 3 (Stability theorem): The model of a water network
consisting of reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps is a stable system.
o Proof: The model is equivalent to an electrical network made of
non-linear monotonic resistors, independent sources and
capacitors and the latter model is stable.
Some water networks include pressure-controlling valves (PRVs and
PSVs). These valves have local control loops and cannot be represented by
two terminal models with monotonic characteristics. There are strong
indications that Theorems 1, 2, 3 are also valid for networks with pressure
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 89

controlling valves. The reasoning can be based on the fact that stabilization
of the downstream head is accomplished by modification of the
conductance (minor losses) of the valve. The changes in the state of the
valve from closed to active and then open are obtained by a continuous
change in conductance starting from zero to some maximum value that
corresponds to the valve being fully open.

5.5 Numerical methods

Simulation of real water distribution systems, that do not consist of a


single pipe and cannot be described by a single equation, consists of
solving a system of equations. The invention of digital computers allowed
powerful numerical technique to be developed that set up and solve the
system of equations describing the hydraulics of the network in matrix
form (Rossman, 1996). These numerical methods can be classified as
Hardy-Cross method, Newton-Raphson method, Linear Theory method,
Linear Graph theory, Finite Element Method (Corneliu, 2004). These
classes include methods used for the solution of systems of non-linear
equations. Generally to simplify calculation of water network analysis, we
assume pipe network’s water flow is steady flow, thus omit time factor in
influencing flow volume.

5.5.1 Hardy-Cross method

The oldest method for systematically solving the problem of steady


flow in pipe-networks is Hardy-Cross method. Hardy-Cross invented this
method in 1936. Fair Howland and Fair Hurst later improved it (Corneliu,
2004). Hardy-Cross Method is a simplified version of the iterative linear
analysis to solve problems related to flow in pipe networks (Ming-Chang,
2002). It is a trial and error method. The Hardy-Cross method is also
known as the single path adjustment method and is a relaxation method.
The flow rate in each pipe is adjusted iteratively until all equations are
satisfied. The method is based on two primary physical laws:

A- The sum of pipe flows into and out of a node equals the flow
entering or leaving the system through the node.
B- Hydraulic head (i.e. elevation head + pressure head) is single-
valued. This means that the hydraulic head at a node is the same
whether it is computed from upstream or downstream directions.

Pipe flows are adjusted iteratively using the following equation:


5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 90

∑ h fi
Δq = ± i=1
(Eq. 5.16)
⎡ N h ⎤
⎢n ∑ qi
fi

⎣ i=1 ⎦

Where:
∆q = loop flow adjustment (m3/s)
N = number of pipes in the loop
q = pipe flow rate (m3/s)
hfi = headloss in pipe I (m)
n = 1.852 for Hazen-William and 2.0 for Darcy-Weisbach

The pipe flow is adjusted until the change in flow in each pipe is less
than the convergence criteria.

5.5.2 Newton-Raphson method

Later, Newton-Raphson method has been utilized to solve large


networks. Computer storage requirements are not greatly larger than those
needed by the Hardy-Cross method. Newton-Raphson is an iterative
method for solving nonlinear problems. It begins with an initial guess at the
solution, and then generates a sequence of points that step increasingly
close to the real solution. When the initial guess is far from the solution, the
Newton-Raphson method may diverge (Brenan, 1989).

5.5.3 Linear Theory method

An additional method called Linear Theory method has also been


proposed. The Linear Theory Method was first introduced by McIlroy in
1949 (McIlroy, 1949). He based his algorithm on Q-equations (linearized
equations based on the difference between estimated and corrected flows in
a pipe). The basic idea of the linear theory is to transform non-linear
headloss equations into linear equations and then solve the system of
equations together with linear continuity equations. Later computer
programs were written based on Q-equations (linearized equations of flows
in pipes) and h-equations (linearized equation of nodal heads) (Scholz,
2005).

5.5.4 Finite Element Methods

Recently, with the gaining of popularity of Finite Element Methods


(FEM), pipe network is analyzed with relative advantage. The FEM is quite
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 91

different from Kirchhoff’s analogy. FEM was introduced originally as a


method for solving structural mechanical problems, which was later
recognized as a general procedure for numerical approximation to all
physical problems that can be modeled by a differential equation
description. To solve any problem using the FEM, the boundary conditions
for the problem must be known. The FEM based on matrix structuring
requires an important volume of iterations and calculations that could
constitute a major constraint in the case of a large network. Large volume
of literature is available for the first three methods, however, only few
literature is available to exploit the advantages of Finite Element Method
(Collins, 1975).

5.5.5 Linear Graph theory

The linear graph theory is used in analyzing and optimizing water


distribution networks. The method has many distinct advantages over the
existing methods such as Hardy-Cross method, Newton-Raphson method,
Linear theory method which are basically relaxation techniques. In these
methods, the two independent set of continuity equations do not appear
explicitly in the formulation of the problem but are primarily used for
verification purpose. Therefore suitability of these methods entirely
depends upon the proper initial guess of the variable values and the
iteration scheme used in the analysis. Many times the solution does not
converge and, even if it converges, it may take unusually large computer
time. In the first step, the component model of hydraulic network such as
reservoir or tank, pipe, check valve, pressure reducing valve and booster
pump based on graph theory approach is formed. Then the analysis based
on linear graph theory approach has been carried out which frees the
analysis from the problem of convergence and initialization. In this case,
the model formulation is based on the direct utilization of both sets of
continuity equations and no initial guess or convergence problem occur.
The analysis is based on two types of formulation, namely, twig
formulation and link formulation. Moreover, the linear graph theory
approach, explicitly takes into account the various topographical feature of
the system. The addition of pumps, reservoirs etc can also be easily
incorporated in the analysis (Rajiv, 2000).

5.6 Extended-period simulation

Extended time hydraulic simulation is a process of solving the


mathematical model equations (5.1) to (5.4) over the time horizon with
given initial conditions, control schedules and demands in order to
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 92

calculate the output. The network model is an instance of a DAE system


but with a very specific structure. The dynamic part is very small and
simple and the static part is very complicated. The static and dynamic parts
interact by two vectors hf (reservoir head) and qf (reservoir flow). For given
reservoir levels the static part can be solved (static simulation). The
reservoir levels in turn are affected only by reservoir flows. This structure
ensures that instantaneous properties of the model are decided by the static
part and a simple Euler integration scheme is sufficient to solve the
dynamic model; extended-period simulation (Ulanicka, 1998).
Euler integration is the simplest and most obvious way to
numerically integrate a set of differential equations (William, 2001). Euler
integration consists of the following steps:

1. Set Time to its initial value.


2. Initialize the levels.
3. Compute the rates of change of the Levels at the current value of
Time.
4. Use the rates of change to compute the Levels at Time +
Timestep.
5. Add Timestep to Time.
6. Repeat steps 3-5 until Time is equal to Final Time.

Euler integration assumes that the rates computed at a given time are
constant through the time interval (timestep). This method is easy to
understand, and easy to implement; however it is not accurate enough for
integrating over any reasonably long time intervals. It is accurate enough to
use in short time integrations though. The error made in using Euler
integration is proportional to the square of timestep on an integration step
and proportional to timestep over the whole simulation. To make the
integration more accurate, one can decrease timestep.

5.7 FINESSE simulator (GINAS)

As it was mentioned in Chapter 4, FINESSE simulator provides


steady-state simulation, and extended-period simulation (e.g. over a 24
hours horizon). The calculation engine is a third party software called
GINAS (Coulbeck, 1985) and (DMU, 1991).
GINAS is a “Graphical and Interactive program for Network
Analysis and Simulation” for water distribution system and is applicable to
most of water supply network. Information about a network and about the
way in which it is simulated is to be simulated is fed to GINAS via an input
data file. The results are presented graphically in response to the user
5. CHAPTER 5 : Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem 93

request. The types of network components provided for by GINAS are


introduced:

- Nodes: Normal junction nodes, Variable load node, Fixed head


reservoir, Variable head reservoir, and Curve head reservoir.

- Elements: Normal pipeline, Completely closed line, Altitude control


valve, Borehole head drawdown, Proportional pressure reducing
valve, Flow reducing valve, Pressure modulating valve, Non-return
valve, Pressure reducing valve, variable control valve, Head
controlled valve, Fixed head element, Curve head element, Fixed flow
element, Curve flow element, Fixed speed pump, Variable speed
pump, Variable throttle pump, Fixed speed turbine.

- Switches: Time switch, Head switch, High head switch with time
delay, Low head switch with time delay, Time switch with high head
switch, Time switch with low head switch.
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 94

CHAPTER 6
6. Role of SCADA System for Real Time
Hydraulic Simulation

6.1 Objectives of SCADA systems for water distribution network

A Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system is a


widely distributed computerized system primarily used to remotely control
and monitor the condition of field-based assets from a central location.
SCADA systems enable the manager (or operator) to remotely view real-
time measurements, such as the level of water in a tank, and remotely
initiate the operation of network elements such as pumps and valves.
SCADA systems can be set up to sound alarms at the central host computer
when a fault within a water supply system is identified. They can also be
used to keep a historical record of the temporal behavior of various
variables in the system such as tank and reservoir levels. The value of the
SCADA system can be enhanced if it incorporates advanced capabilities,
such as modeling and simulation (Cameron, 1998).
When working with SCADA data, the modeler often has access to
more data than can be easily processed. For example, the modeler may
have several weeks of data from which to calibrate an extended-period
simulation (EPS) model and must pick a representative day or days to use
as the basis for calibration. Selecting the best modeling analysis period
from these thousands of numbers, which may be in several sources, is
extremely difficult. Usually, there is no day when all of the instrumentation
is functioning properly, so selecting that day is often based on finding the
day with the fewest problems (Walski, 2003).
Another challenge of working with SCADA data is that incorrect
readings, time-scale errors, or missing values may not be readily apparent
in the mass of raw data. Fortunately, the modeler can use any of several
procedures to compile and organize SCADA information into a more
usable format, usually in the form of a spreadsheet. The tables and graphs
developed using these procedures can be then used directly for a range of
applications, including EPS model calibration, forecasting of system
operations, and estimating water loss during main breaks (Walski, 2003).
For a water distribution network, the common objectives of a
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 95

SCADA system are to do the following:

1. Monitor the system.


2. Obtain control over the system and ensure that required
performance is always achieved.
3. Reduce operational staffing levels through automation or by
operating a system from a single central location.
4. Store data on the behavior of a system and therefore achieve full
compliance with mandatory reporting requirements for any
regulatory agency.
5. Provide information on the performance of the system and
establish effective asset management procedures for the system.
6. Establish efficient operation of the system by minimizing the
need for routine visits to remote sites and potentially reduce
power consumption during pumping operations through
operational optimization.
7. Provide a control system that will enable operating objectives to
be set and achieved.
8. Provide an alarm system that will allow faults to be diagnosed
from a central point, thus allowing field repair trips to be made
by suitably qualified staff to correct the given fault condition and
to avoid incidents that may be damaging to the environment.

However, a hydraulic model can also be used to assist SCADA


operators with setting up controls for an existing SCADA system or for
entirely new SCADA installations. Rather than experimenting with the real
system, the operator can test out different control strategies in the model
and determine if the new controls are an improvement or if there are
adverse impacts.
Before a SCADA system comes on line, it is usually tested by
simulating events such as tank levels and valve statuses using EPS model
runs. Results from these tests can be used to determine control set points,
levels, and variable-frequency-drive settings. With model output linked to
the man-machine interface of the SCADA system, it becomes possible to
simulate much more realistic sequences of events to better test the SCADA
system (Cameron, 1998).
In the water industry the water security and reliably providing water
is one of it basic core competencies. SCADA data allows operations staff to
develop a high level of understanding the effects their actions have on the
supply of water, by providing feedback. Most water utilities would have
had some form of such feedback even without SCADA (e.g. being able to
interrogate tank levels). Another core competency of a water utility is
ensuring the water quality is maintained. This means ensuring an
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 96

appropriate chlorine residual is maintained throughout the system. The


basic information to do this is the chlorine residual, the rate of turnover of
water in the system, the temperature of the water, and the raw water
quality. Much of this information is expensive to collect and rarely
provided in a comprehensive manner with or without SCADA. If this
information is routinely provided it can be seen that the competency of the
utility in this area would improve dramatically by increasing the
understanding of operations staff of the impact of their operating decisions
on water quality (Ian, 2005). Also, secure water systems have properties
that reduce the likelihood of successful attacks (Barry C. Ezell, 1998) and
the system would provide constant monitoring of all vulnerable areas. It
would immediately report any security breaches or abnormal operation
conditions. It would eliminate any necessity for regular patrols and
significantly reduce the frequency of visits to remote sites. The system
would continue operating if the power was cut off or communication line
severed. It would be accessible to operations people even if the control
room were disables or evacuated. It would provide security from hacking.
The system also would be able to react to conditions and perform control
actions, which could safely shut down processes or isolate sections of the
water distribution system (Bristol Babcock Inc., 2001).
On January 1998 a survey was posted at “http://virginia.edu”. The
purpose of the survey was to gather information about the cyber threat,
understand the state of SCADA in water supply systems, document any
intrusions in the past year, and analyze trends among the administrators of
these systems.

6.2 Components of a SCADA system

SCADA encompasses the transfer of data between a SCADA central


host computer and a number of remote sites (Remote Terminal Units
RTUs), and the central host and the operator terminals. A generic SCADA
system employs some form of data multiplexing (MUXs) between the
central host and the RTUs (Figure 6.1). These multiplexers serve to route
data to and from a number of RTUs on a local network, while using one or
very few physical links on a Wide Area Network (WAN) backbone to pass
data back to the central host computer.
An important aspect of every SCADA system is the computer
software used within the system. The most obvious software component is
the operator interface or MMI/HMI (Man Machine Interface/Human
Machine Interface) package; however, softwares of some form present
throughout all levels of a SCADA system. Depending on the size and
nature of the SCADA application, software can be a significant cost item
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 97

when developing, maintaining, and expanding a SCADA system. When


software is well-defined, designed, written, checked, and tested, a
successful SCADA system will likely be produced. Poor performances in
any of these project phases will very easily cause a SCADA project to fail.
Many SCADA systems employ commercial proprietary software
upon which the SCADA system is developed. The proprietary software
often is configured for a specific hardware platform and may not interface
with the software or hardware produced by competing vendors.

Figure 6.1 : Generic SCADA system network

6.3 Data acquisition mechanisms

Data acquisition within SCADA systems is accomplished first by the


RTUs scanning the field data interface devices connected to the RTU. The
time to perform this task is called the scanning interval and can be faster
than two seconds. The central host computer scans the RTUs (usually at a
much slower rate) to access the data in a process referred to as polling the
RTUs. Some systems allow the RTU to transmit field values and alarms to
the central host without being polled by the central host. This mechanism is
known as unsolicited messaging. Systems that allow this mechanism
usually use it in combination with the process of polling the RTU to solicit
information as to the health of the RTU. Unsolicited messages are usually
only transmitted when the field data has deviated by a prespecified
percentage, so as to minimize the use of the communications channels, or
when a suitably urgent alarm indicating some site abnormality exists.
Control actions that are performed by using the central host are
generally treated as data that are sent to the RTU. As such, any control
actions by an operator logged into the central host will initiate a
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 98

communication link with the RTU to allow the control command to be sent
to the field data interface device under control. SCADA systems usually
employ several layers of checking mechanisms to ensure that the
transmitted command is received by the intended target.

6.4 Types of SCADA data and SCADA data format

Data received from SCADA systems fall into one of the following
categories:

a) Analog data (real numbers): Analog data are usually represented by


integers or IEEE floating-point numbers (these are numbers that have
no fixed number of digits before and after the decimal point and that
follow the popular Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
standard IEEE). It may be trended (placed in charts that show
variation over time) or used to generate alarms indicate an abnormal
condition.
b) Digital data (on/off or open/closed): Digital data may be used to
sound alarms, depending on the state (on/off or open/closed) reflected
by the data.
c) Pulse data: Pulse data, such as the number of revolutions of a meter,
are accumulated at either the site collection point or at the SCADA
central host computer. They are typically converted to the same
number format as analog data; however, they are physically derived
in a different manner from pure, real number analog data obtained
from field instrumentation.
d) Status bits (or flags): Status bits are usually auxiliary to analog data.
For example, a data flag can accompany an analog input if the
SCADA system determines that a value is possibly invalid.

SCADA systems generally allow some form of data transfer to


external applications. For example, data may be exported as ASCII text, as
a spreadsheet file, or to a proprietary “data historian” software package.
Once the data are in tabular format within a spreadsheet, it is possible to
manipulate the data to investigate the behavior of the instrument or the
associated plant being monitored.

6.5 Handling of data during SCADA failures and processing of


data from the field

Different SCADA systems cope differently with a failure event.


6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 99

Some systems rely primarily on the inherent redundancy of the SCADA


system, and others may use some form of storage mechanism to archive
data that may be recovered once the SCADA system has returned to normal
operating capacity. These options are:

¾ Storage of data in the RTUs


¾ System redundancy

Most SCADA systems employ a combination of the preceding


mechanisms to ensure data continuity during failure events.
The primary interface to the operator from the operator terminal is a
Graphical User Interface (GUI) display that shows a representation of the
plant or equipment in graphical form. Live data are shown as graphical
shapes (foreground) over a static background. As the data changes in the
field, the foreground is updated. For example, a valve may be shown as
open or closed, depending on the latest digital value from the field. The
most recent analog values are displayed on the screens as numerical values
or as some physical representation, such as the amount of filled color in a
tank to represent water level. Alarms may be represented on a screen as a
red flashing icon above the relevant field device. The system may have
many such displays, and the operator can select from the relevant ones at
any time.

6.6 Responding to data problems and verifying data validity

When incorrect SCADA readings are found, the modeler typically


examines another time period and set of data where the problems do not
occur. However, if a unique distribution system event is to be analyzed or if
collecting the SCADA data requires a special effort by SCADA operators,
the modeler may not have the option of selecting another problem-free
period. Discussions with SCADA operators can provide insight into the
causes of inconsistencies in the data and permit the modeler to make
appropriate allowances. Completing the data series with information from
chart recorders, data loggers, or other monitoring devices, and shifting time
scales where justified also can address SCADA data issues sufficiently to
support modeling applications (Walski, 2003).
EPS modeling analyses require SCADA information to be divided
into model timesteps. The duration of the model timestep depends on the
type of analysis being performed and is usually based on separating the
total analysis time period into a reasonable and manageable number of
steps. However, it may be difficult to download SCADA data at time
increments that directly correspond to model timesteps (Walski, 2003).
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 100

Along with the convenience of remote monitoring via SCADA


comes the drawback of data consumers becoming overly reliant on the data
received from the SCADA system. A user of data may mistakenly assume
the correctness of data received from a SCADA system when in fact the
only way to be assured of its integrity is through critical analysis. Software
for the central host is available that offers automatic detection of sensor
data errors through continuous automatic analysis of data using such
techniques as neural network analysis. However, more conventional data
techniques are typically used to verify the validity of critical sensors and
systems associated with a SCADA system.

6.7 Integrating SCADA systems and hydraulic models

SCADA systems monitor the water distribution system performance


at discrete stations scattered throughout the service area. However, there
may be locations in the distribution system, such as meter pits, that lack the
power or communication connections required for a functional SCADA
station. For these situations, the flows and pressures can be estimated from
SCADA information at nearby stations. When these calculations are not
complicated, they can be performed within the SCADA software (for
example, by offsetting pressure readings from other stations based on
differences in elevation). However, when the situation is more complex, a
hydraulic model interfaced with the SCADA software is required to
estimate parameters at non SCADA locations (Ingeduld, 2000). The steps
involved in calculating information for non-SCADA sites include: Export
data on boundary conditions from SCADA, Configure the hydraulic model
to match those specific conditions, Execute the model, and finally view the
results or import results from the model back into SCADA. This type of
procedure is typically automated and accomplished with some form of
dynamic data linkage between the SCADA system and modeling software.
Another example of this integration is estimating water loss during
main breaks. Tracking the water discharged from the system during main
breaks can help quantify losses. Generally, a significant main break will
show up in SCADA records as low pressures readings, an unexplained
decline in tank levels, excessive pump flow, or other unexplained data
inconsistencies. SCADA information for the time period surrounding the
break can be downloaded to a hydraulic model and the model can then be
executed to simulate system conditions at the time of the break. By
adjusting the demands - or emitter coefficients - at the break location and
trying different start and finish times for the break, the modeler should be
able to match modeling results to the SCADA records during the break and
thus determine the quantity of water lost.
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 101

In Chapter 4 of this thesis the hydraulic modeling and simulation


softwares were introduced. Most of the softwares packages offered linking
with external systems in particular SCADA. AQUIS, PICCOLO and
SynerGEE make linking to SCADA an optional extra whilst the others
provide it as standard. With the information provided by the developers
from their Websites or brochures, it was quite difficult to determine exactly
if the different packages offered real-time links to SCADA, or if in fact the
links were merely on-line. The only packages that offer true real-time
linking were AQUIS, InfoWorks, H2Onet and PICCOLO. It could not be
determined if SynerGEE and WaterCAD perform real-time linking.

AQUIS – Optional real-time module for SCADA linking


The system can operate in two modes, on-line and real-time. In on-line
mode, the system will use SCADA and logger data collected over a period,
say 24 hours or a week, while in real-time mode new SCADA data is used
every few minutes.

H2Onet - SCADA Interface provided as standard with Analyzer


H2ONet Analyzer provides the capability to extract real-time modeling
data directly from SCADA system in ASCII format.

InfoWorks – SCADA interface provided as standard


Real-time links with telemetry and logger data systems. Live Data Links
enable transfers and fixed heads to be updated automatically at a frequency
determined by field data download. This allows the simulated network to
reflect current hydraulic behavior making the model a true operational tool.

PICCOLO – Optional real-time module for SCADA linking


PICCOLO Real-time is an application which allows a hot link between a
SCADA system and a PICCOLO model, and provides alarms on
unexpected events such as abnormal data, or discrepancy between real time
data and model results. PICCOLO Real-time analyzes a network’s real time
operation conditions and validates pumping strategies in terms of water
quality and pressure.

SynerGEE Water – Optional on-line module for SCADA linking


On-line Module capabilities provide automatic transfer of operational and
reference data from SCADA system into SynerGEE and hydraulic
simulation using that data. This is all done without operator intervention.

WaterCAD – SCADA interface provided as standard


No information provided by Haestad on whether WaterCAD could perform
real-time linking with SCADA.
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 102

FINESSE – SCADA Interface provided as standard


It can perform “On-Line” and “Real time” simulation. FINESSE SCADA
interface provides the capability to extract real-time modeling data directly
from SCADA system.
* Note: All the above information was taken from the same sources as
those of Chapter 4.

6.8 Description of SCADA systems at SCP

The problem of the hydraulic management arises when the system’s


manager and operators have to administer hydraulic streams of openflow
structures (canals, galleries) and storage tanks. This kind of hydraulic
systems needs particular research for control applications because they are
big scale systems, open and characterized by big delays and great inertia.
The main purpose of the automatic control of open channel hydraulic
systems, such as irrigation canals, is to optimize the water supply in order
to match the expected or aleatory water demands at the offtakes level. In
real situations with the traditional management tools, an open-channel
water conveyance and delivery system is very difficult to manage,
especially if there is a on-demand operation (Almeida, 2002). The
objectives of the systems of hydraulic management are to answer in
appropriate time and in sufficiency the necessities and behavior of the
users, to respect the constraints of use of hydraulic works, to optimize
resources in water, and to optimize the set of the costs of construction,
running costs of works and equipments. These objectives are reached by
means of a system of remote supervision.
The management and operation of the Canal de Provence are assured
by automatic regulation software connected to a real-time supervisor. This
supervisor centralizes and archive data coming from numerous sensors
spread on a vast perimeter. The following sections describe the main
components of this SCADA system at SCP (Canivet, 2002).

6.8.1 The equipments of the supervisor system

Data processing is assured by two workstations of type Alpha Server


300 (HP) used under the operating system VMS based in the Control
Central (CGTC). The CGTC supervises 11 Regional Operating Room
(French: Centre Régional d’Exploitation, CRE). Each of these centers
possesses a PC or a workstation using the same software packages that
CGTC uses. These regional operating rooms are connected to host
computers but also control their own tele-measurements locally (Figure
6.2). Hence, the system of data acquisition via the remote control network
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 103

is done either:

ƒ Directly by remote transmission stations or automatons,


ƒ By the remote transmission front-ends at the equipment room of
CGTC,
ƒ Or by “calculator” connected to the supervisors at the regional
operating rooms.

The different media serve as means of remote transmission are:

• Private cables
• Rented specialized connections
• Public telephone network
• GSM network
• Radio links

The securing of information is assured by the redundancy of


information and by looping some connections. Generally the GSM network
is used as standby network in case of rupture of cabled communication.
The real-time database of the CGTC supervisor is composed of:

o 1,300 telemetries (TM) which include the measurements of levels,


position of gates, pressure, quality of the water …),
o 13,000 remote-signalization (RS) (states or defects of the equipments),
o 41 remote-regulation (by sending signals of flow or gate opening at
the automaton),
o 375 remote-controls (direct, on gates securities or pumps).

The acquisition of measurements from automatons is done every


minute. Data archived in the real-time database of the supervisor is done
every 15 minutes. The used equipments provide, first of all, information on
the state of the canal all the time. This information is mainly obtained by
means of measuring sensors.

6.8.2 Description of the measuring chain of SCP

This section aims at describing the architecture of the chain of


network measurement of Canal de Provence. It describes in details the
various types of measurements made within the framework of the networks
and canals supervision, as well as data connected to these measurements
and collected in the real-time database.
In the case of the measurements that are made on the Canal de
Provence, we shall distinguish two types of measurements:
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 104

Host Computers

RT front-end

Support of RT

Specialized connections Specialized connections Public telephone network

STATION STATION STATION

RT RT RT

RS
Equipments Equipments
AUTOMATONS
REGULATOR

TM
RC

Actuator

On-Off Switch

Gate Pump

Sensors

Figure 6.2 : Architecture of SCADA communication at SCP

1) Direct measurements, which represent measurements whose error


results from the calibration of the measuring chain.
2) Calculated measurements, which are the measurements obtained from
direct measurements. They use mathematical laws to transform these
measurements into final measurements. This class concerns the
measurements of flow in the case of openflow surface.

a) The measurements of levels

The measurements of levels are used to follow:


- The variation of water levels in the reservoirs and water tanks (static
regime),
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 105

- The evolution of water levels in the canals (dynamic regime).

On the majority of hydraulic works, the measurements of levels are


done in measuring wells communicating with the controlled work. This
technique allows filtering the fluctuations in levels that disrupt
measurements (notably those due to the wind). The types of used devices
are very different:

- Sensors measuring hydrostatic differential pressure,


- Immersed probes whose height is at least equal to the maximal height of
the reservoir.

At present, two new types of devices come to be used. These devices


use a method based on the use of the radiation to deduct the level.
Radiation can be:

• Acoustic wave: The sensor is composed of a receiving- emitting


station and is placed either at the top of the reservoir or at the bottom.
the acoustic devices utilize an acoustic “shock-wave” sent down a
vertical wave-guide. After striking the water surface, the wave is
reflected back to a transducer and microcomputer that converts travel
time to distance based on the speed of sound in air. This type of
device allows more precise measurements but the speed of acoustic
waves in the air depends on the temperature.

• Microwaves: Used technology is identical to acoustic wave. The


propagation of waves is close to the light speed so independent on the
temperature and the pressure surrounding the receiving- emitting
station.

The levels measurements are considered by the operator as the most


reliable measurements among the set of measurements made on the canal.
They belong to the class of direct measurements.

b) The flow measurements

The measurements of flow are divided into two classes:

1. The direct flow measurements

Numerous types of sensors allow knowing the flow that passes


through a pressurized pipe. At SCP, we find:
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 106

>> The electromagnetic flowmeters


The emission of a magnetic induction field perpendicular to the flow
velocity of a fluid in a pipe of diameter D, creates an electromagnetic force
whose amplitude is directly related to the flow velocity.

>> Ultrasound flowmeters


The speed of the sound depends on the physical media of
propagation and its temperature. If this media is in movement then the time
of propagation of the acoustic wave is affected by the velocity of moving
media. The measurement of this propagation time allows to measure the
velocity of the fluid and hence the measurement of flow. In this case, it is
possible to build a mathematical expression, which relates the propagation
time of the wave directly to the distance that separates receiving- emitting
stations, and to the flow velocity of the fluid, without taking into account
the speed of the sound. Generally, ultrasound flowmeters is installed in the
pressurized networks just like the electromagnetic flowmeters.

>> Venturi Flowmeters


A contraction of the pipe carrying a flow creates between the
upstream and downstream a difference of pressure ΔP related to the flow.
The knowledge of the geometry’s constant of the device as well as the
density is necessary to establish this relation.

2. The indirect flow measurements

The knowledge of flow rates in the case of openflow surface is done


from laws that are empirical and mathematical laws that allow relating
various direct measurements to obtain an estimate of the flow rate. In the
case of the Canal de Provence two types of laws are used: laws of gates and
laws of weirs.
These laws allow knowing flow according to the used type of
gate/weir as well as the opening of the gate/weir and the water level at the
upstream and at the downstream of the gate/weir.

c) Volume measurements

Volume measurements are indirect measurements, which are


dependent on the water levels measurements and the reservoir geometry.
For canals, the volume measurement in a canal depends on the average
inflow and on the downstream level of the canal.
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 107

6.8.3 The measurements acquisition in real-time

Every minute, the host computer comes to interrogate the local


stations of remote transmission to obtain immediate measurements. These
measurements are displayed on representative synoptic of the hydraulic
works and facilities of Canal de Provence. Every fifteen minutes, the
measurements archiving procedure is launched. Measurements can be:

>> Valid if the station sends back a value which falls within the
defined measuring range corresponding to the interrogated sensor.

>> Non-valid for the cases where:

- Communication with the remote transmission station is not done


neither by the direct communication nor by the standby network.
- Communication between the sensor and the remote transmission
station is impossible (sensor is out of service, or is being repaired …),
- Measurement does not fall into the defined measuring range
corresponding to the interrogated sensor,
- The system of supervision is stopped before the phase of
acquisition and restarted later. Measurement is then absent in the database.

A measurement code is archived in the database and translates the


causes of the absence of measurements:

Æ If value in the database is (- 1), interrogated measurement was


invalidated by a posterior treatment (measurements out of range, sensor out
of service …)
Æ If value in the database is (- 2), measurement is absent in the
database (communication with the station is impossible, task of acquisition
from supervision is stopped …),
Æ If value in the database is (- 3), measurement does not exist in the
interrogated base (computer address corresponding in the measurement is
not recognized by the database).

In case of prolonged absence of measurements in the database, a


special acquisition task is set up. This task interrogates the databases of the
computers at the regional operating rooms. If a measurement is faulty in the
central database and present in the regional operating room database, then,
the values of this measurement are replaced by the data from the regional
database. This task is launched every morning (at 06:00 AM) for
measurements verification for the day before.
The water levels measurements in the supervisor real-time database
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 108

are instantaneous measurements that are archived every 15 minutes. The


archived flows measurements are the average flow of the instantaneous
measurements over 15 minutes stored in the remote transmission stations. It
is not so strictly speaking instantaneous measurements.
Calculated measurements are dependent on the presence of valid
measurements in the database. So if a direct measurement serving for
constructing a calculated measurement is absent, then calculated
measurement will be in turn non-valid. All the acquisitions tasks which
cannot succeed and which are due to non-valid measurements in the
database are announced to the operator by alarms.

6.8.4 Measurements conciliation technique

The measurements reconciliation consists in generating information


representing a physical unit, which will be regarded as credible and reliable
by the users. The algorithm used for data validation is made up as shown in
Figure 6.3.

6.9 Establishing link between FINESSE SCADA Gateway and


CGTC supervisor

FINESSE is able to carry out two types of simulation: either “Off-


Line” simulation where the software employs all the data already entered in
its database since the model building stage; or “On-Line” and “Real time”
simulation where the software must be connected to the supervisor such as
it will look up data necessary for the simulation (Rance, 2002).
The CGTC supervisor data that is at the disposal of FINESSE is
mainly:

a- Tanks Level (m)


b- Tank inflow or outflow (m3/s)
c- Pump pressure (bar)
d- Pump flow (m3/s)
e- Pump rotation speed (rpm)
f- Valve opening (%)
g- Water-meters measurements
h- Pressure sensors measurements (bar)
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 109

Acquisition of measurements

Global estimation under constraints:


- of positivity of measurements,
- of respect of flows balance.

Calculation of the residues of Recalculation of residues considering the bias


normalized estimation

Non-verified Test

Verified Test Not all estimated


data is valid

Sequential estimation of measurements and bias


All estimated data
is valid under constraint:

End of estimating procedure

Figure 6.3 : Schema of data conciliation algorithm

Each one of these data has its own address to which it is saved in the
database of the supervisor. According to the data storage system of the
CGTC, this address is made up of five sub-addresses separated by “points”,
for example: TM.07.03.03.00, and PM.03.01.01.02, where:

1) Two characters refer to the “data category”, for example: TM refers


to TeleMeasured one, PM refers to PseudoMeasured one. The
“Pseudo” prefix indicates that this measurement is estimated,
calculated or derived from one measured value or more. For
example if the pumping flow is measured, the pressure can be
estimated from the pump characteristic curve.
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 110

2) Two digits refer to the “Front-end Number” of the interrogated


station by the CGTC server.

3) Two digits refer to the “Station Number” interrogated by the Front-


end.

4) Two digits refer to the “Address-Word Number” linked to the station


sensor.

5) Two digits refer to the “Number of Bits” in the Address-Word.

In order to carry out “On-Line” simulation, it is necessary to define


the following six elements in FINESSE input data:

A. Simulation Period: the numbers of days for which FINESSE will


look up data from the supervisor and perform the simulation. It lies
between one and seven days.
B. Simulation timestep: the lapse of time, in minutes, to which
FINESSE will carry out calculations. In all cases, the maximum ratio
of the simulation period to the timestep must be less than or equal to
168. For example, if the simulation period is seven days (10,080
minutes), the timestep must be at least 10,080/168 = 60 minutes.
C. Curve: this curve represent a data storage and the variation of the
stored data (pressure, flow, pump rotation speed, …) over the
simulation period at each timestep mentioned above. This curve
must be defined by its ID number and it will be automatically filled
in during the “On-line” simulation if the data are available in the
supervisor.
D. Starting Date of the simulation.
E. Supervisor name and address where the data is stored and to which
FINESSE will be connected.
F. Data address label in the supervisor. This address should be identical
to that explained above. This address is defined in FINESSE by what
is called “Mnemonic”.

The schema of Figure 6.4 shows the “Telemetric Link” between


FINESSE and CGTC/SCP supervisor. However, this link is tested in at the
CGTC and it was working correctly.
6. CHAPTER 6 : Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation 111

Figure 6.4 : “Telemetric Link” between FINESSE and CGTC/SCP


supervisor
FINESSE SCADA Interface
CGTC Supervisor

( Database )
Water Level Sensor Address Word N°1
( Size = 2 bits ) TM.02.01.03.02
Address Word N°2 Front-end N°1 TM.03.01.02.02
CGTC TM.01.01.01.02
Station N°1
Front-end N°2 TM.04.01.02.01
Res_X Address Word N°3
Station N°2
Front-end N°3 Alpha Server
Address Word N°4
Station N°3
Front-end N°4
Station N°4
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 112

CHAPTER 7
7. Calibration of Pipe Network
Hydraulic Model

7.1 Introduction

Scarcity of water in many countries imposes a rational use of


resources. For this reason, hydraulic network management is very
important. Modeling hydraulic network can be very useful in managing the
system and making decisions about a system rehabilitation or major
expansion. The simulation models, with introducing of SCADA system for
an efficient management, have also eased the decision-making process by
predicting the behavior of a real water distribution system under existing or
modified condition. One of the most important problems concerning the
use of the mathematical simulators is determining how well they represent
the physical system (Walski, 2003).
The primary objective of a simulation is to reproduce the behavior of
a real system and its spatial and dynamic characteristics in a useful way. It
is unlikely that the pressures and flows computed by the simulation model
will absolutely agree with observed pressures and flows (Pérez, 2001).
Significant mathematical assumptions are employed by the simulation
software to make the simulation computationally tractable, yet allow the
simulated results to be meaningful and useful.
Even though the required data have been collected and entered into a
hydraulic simulation software package, the modeler can not assume that the
model is an accurate mathematical representation of the system. The
hydraulic simulation software simply solves the equations of continuity and
energy using the supplied data; thus, the quality of the data will dictate the
quality of the results. The accuracy of a hydraulic model depends on how
well it has been calibrated.
Calibration is the process of comparing the model results to field
observations and, if necessary, adjusting the data describing the system
until model-predicted performance reasonably agrees with measured
system performance over a wide range of operating conditions (Walski,
2003). The process of calibration may include changing system demands,
fine-tuning the roughness of pipes, altering pump operating characteristics,
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 113

and adjusting other model attributes that affect simulation results.


Some may assume that calibration can be accomplished by adjusting
only internal pipe roughness values or estimates of nodal demands until an
agreement between observed and computed pressures and flows is
obtained. Generally speaking, the basis for this claim is that unlike pipe
lengths, diameters, and tank levels, which are directly measured, pipe
roughness values and nodal demands are typically estimated, and thus have
room for adjustment. Numerous factors, however, can contribute to
disagreement between model and field observations. Any and all input data
that have uncertainty associated with them are candidates for adjustment
during calibration to obtain reasonable agreement between model-predicted
behavior and actual field behavior.
In the case of water quality models, a match between some observed
and predicted water quality parameter such as chlorine or fluoride
concentrations is usually used for calibration purposes. However in the case
of non-conservative species such as chlorine not only are system-wide
concentrations dependent upon the network hydraulics, but they are a
function of any reactions that take place in the system. Clearly one can see
that calibrating for water quality can greatly increase the level of effort
required to obtain a suitable match between observed and computer
predicted performance (Walski, 2003).
A discrepancy found during the calibration process can also mean
that the system itself has problems. A review of the system should be done
before any changes are made to rationally developed model data. Possible
system problems are large leaks, previously undetected errors in the
metered consumption, errors in recorded pipe sizes, unknown throttled or
closed valves, worn pump impellers, or old construction debris left in
pipes. Also, discrepancies between the model and observed values are not
always a sign of model inaccuracies. Even though data may have come
from a SCADA system with several digits of precision, it should not be
assumed that the data are accurate to that level.

7.2 Calibration approach

The most challenging part of calibrating a model is making


judgments regarding the adjustments that must be made to the model to
bring it into agreement with field results. This section introduces methods
for making these calibration judgments. The following is a seven-step
approach that can be used as a guide to model calibration described by
Ormsbee and Lingireddy (Pérez, 2003):
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 114

a. Identify the intended use of the model

Identifying the intended use of the model (pipe sizing, operational


studies, design studies, water quality studies) is the first and most important
step because it helps the designer establish the level of detail needed in the
model, the nature of the data collection, and the acceptable level of
tolerance for errors between field measurements and simulation results.
Water quality and operational studies require an extended-period analysis;
whereas some design studies may be performed using a steady-state
analysis.

b. Determine estimates of model parameters

In most models some degree of uncertainty is associated with several


parameters. Parameters to be estimated are those that are less likely to be
measured and change within time. Special emphasis will be put on pipe
roughness and node demand factors but these could be generalized to pump
curves or valves coefficients. Initial estimates of pipe roughness values
may be obtained using average values from literature but this information’s
specific applicability decreases significantly as the pipes age increases. To
obtain initial estimates of roughness it is best to divide the water
distribution system into composite zones that contain pipes of similar
material and age.

c. Collect calibration data

The most common types of data are those for flow rate, tank water
level and pressure. Depending on the level of instrumentation and
telemetry, much of the data may already be collected as part of normal
operations. Data collection plays an important role in managing water
distribution systems. The main aim of the field data collection planning
exercise is to determine what, when, under what conditions, and where to
observe the behavior of the system and collect data that, when used for
calibration, will yield the best results. This is what is known as a sampling
design problem.
Depending on the flow conditions being simulated, the model will
have different reactions to different types of data changes. For most water
distribution systems, the Hydraulic Gradient Line (HGL) throughout the
system (also referred to as the piezometric surface) is fairly flat during
average-day demand conditions. The reason for these small headloss is that
most systems are designed to operate at an acceptable level of service
during maximum day demands while accommodating fire flows. As a
result, the pipe sizes are usually large enough that average-day headloss are
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 115

small. For this reason, calibration during average conditions does not
provide much information on roughness coefficients and water use.
Average conditions do, however, provide insights into boundary conditions
and node elevations. During periods when flows through the system are
high, such as peak hour flows, pipe roughness and demand values play a
much larger role in determining system-wide pressures. Therefore, pipe
roughness values, and to a lesser extent demands, should be adjusted during
periods of high flow to achieve model calibration.

d. Evaluate model results based on initial estimates of model


parameters

Using collected data the model can be evaluated, different simulators


are available (see Chapter 4). The evaluated pressures, flows and tank
water levels are then compared with the observed values in attempt to
assess model accuracy, and large discrepancies can be addressed simply by
looking at the nature and location of differences between the model results
and the field data.

e. Perform a rough-tuning or macrocalibration analysis

During macrocalibration the major errors and mistakes are removed.


A human normally performs this task. If measured values are different
from the modeled values by an amount significantly excessive, the cause
for the difference probably extends beyond errors in the estimates for either
pipe roughness or demands. The typical causes are inaccurate plant models
such as pumps and reservoirs, incorrect network topology, and incorrect
boundary conditions. The only way to adequately address such errors is to
systematically review the data associated with the model and compare them
with the field data. This stage of calibration is normally done manually
using some common sense rules (WSS, 1998). But it can be time-
consuming and require skill and judgment. An automatic system could
carry out the macrocalibration that concerns the topological and crude
errors in the model, or at least could support the task of the experts. In
order to perform macrocalibration automatically, the knowledge has to be
organized. An expert system allows the diagnosis of errors and finding
their causes. Another approach would be the classification of the errors for
correction. This automatic system is presented in (Pérez, 2003).

f. Perform a sensitivity analysis

Next, a sensitivity analysis can be conducted to judge how


performance of the calibration changes with respect to parameter
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 116

adjustments. For example, if pipe roughness values are globally adjusted by


10 percent, the modeler may notice that pressures do not change much in
the system, thus indicating that the system is insensitive to roughness for
that demand pattern. Alternatively, nodal demands may be changed by 15
percent for the same system, causing pressures and flows to change
significantly. In this case, time may be more wisely spent focusing on
establishing good estimates of system demands. If neither roughness
coefficients nor demands have a significant impact on system heads, then
the velocity in the system may be too low for the data to be useful for this
purpose.

g. Perform a fine-tuning or microcalibration analysis

The parameters to be adjusted in this final phase of calibration are


pipe roughness and nodal demands. Historically, most attempts at model
calibration have employed an empirical or trial-and-error approach which
can be time-consuming, particularly if there are a large number of pipes or
nodes that are candidates for adjustment. Several researchers have
proposed different algorithms for use in automatically calibrating hydraulic
network models. Most of these techniques have been restricted to steady-
state calibration. These techniques have been based on the use of analytical
equations, simulation models and optimization methods.
In addition to these standards, the AWWA Engineering Computer
Applications Committee (AWWA, 1999) posted some calibration
guidelines on its web page. However, each modeling application is unique
and requires its own unique set of calibration requirements.

7.3 Calibration methods

Several procedures were developed for hydraulic network


calibration, based on analytical and simulation model methods. More
recently, different techniques that solve the problem using an optimization
procedure were proposed. Model calibration has been a manual task by
adjusting the uncertain model parameters on a trial-and-error basis.
Because many potential combinations of calibration parameters exist,
finding the best set of parameters presents a challenge to the modeler.
Therefore, by using a computer-based techniques the modeler can calibrate
the system much more efficiently and consistently to achieve as close a
match as possible to the field data. Generally, calibration methods can be
grouped into the following categories:
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 117

¾ Direct method: This method is the simplest one and is used when the
pipe’s roughness is the only unknown parameter and the demands and
pressures are measured for all the nodes in the network (as it is the
case for “Toulon Est” network) and, hence, the pipe’s headloss and
flow are known for all the pipes. For each pipe, the pipe roughness is
computed directly from the headloss equation (Darcy-Weisbach
formula, Hazen-Williams formula, or Chezy-Manning formula) where
the unknown parameter is the pipe’s roughness.

¾ Trial-and-error method (Iterative method): This method is based on


some specifically developed, iterative, trial-and-error procedures.
Networks that have a small numbers of calibration parameters can be
effectively handled. To reduce number of calibration parameters for
large network the simplification of the network is typically necessary
(Ormsbee, 1986). The convergence rate of the iterative methods is
rather slow. However, these iterative procedures are the fundamental
principles and guidelines regarding water distribution calibration were
used to develop more sophisticated calibration techniques as a result.

¾ Explicit methods (hydraulic simulation methods): is based on solving


an extended set of steady-state, mass-balance, and energy equations.
The extended set consists of the initial set of equations; those
normally used in network simulation models, augmented by a set of
equations derived from available head and flow measurements (one
additional equation per measurement), and it is solved numerically.
The number of unknown calibration parameters is limited by the
number of available measurements, so when the number of unknown
calibration parameters is larger than the number of available
measurements (underdetermined problem), the number of calibration
parameters must be reduced by grouping. Explicit calibration methods
have several disadvantages and limitations. The calibration problem
must be even-determined; that is, the number of calibration parameters
must be equal to the number of measurements. Measurement errors
are not taken into account and it is difficult to quantify the uncertainty
of the estimated calibration parameters (Ormsbee, 1986).

¾ Implicit methods (optimization methods): consists of optimization-


based methods. In this case, the calibration problem is represented as
an optimization problem by introducing an objective function. The
problem is solved implicitly, usually by minimizing the objective
function, errors. Errors are calculated as differences between
measured and output variables computed by the hydraulic model.
Hydraulic models linked to optimization methods are steady-state
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 118

models (single- or multiple-demand condition), extended-period


simulation models, or unsteady (transient) models. Transient
equations in such cases are much more complicated, especially for
huge networks from which their use is not generally extended in
simulation, optimization and, generally, in water management
procedures (Ormsbee, 1989).

Since the calibration problem could be treated as an optimization one


(Meredith, 1983) and (Pérez, 2003), in the recent years, much research has
been directed to developing global optimization methods for automatic
calibration of the conceptual models as well as hydrodynamic models. The
solution of optimization problem was extensively discussed by many
authors in the past. However, the proposed numerical algorithms can be
classified into the following categories: Gauss-Newton, Gradient search,
and Direct search methods. The direct search method is not very used
because the rate of the convergence is generally slow. In the Gauss-Newton
method and its variations it is necessary to compute the sensitivity matrix
(Jacobian) of the state variables with respect to the unknown parameters at
each iteration of the non-linear least square minimization. Gradient search
method needs to compute the gradient vector of the objective function with
respect to the unknown parameters, instead of the sensitivity matrix, that
takes less computer time. Although they can require more iterations for
convergence they are usually more efficient. In this respect, population-
based algorithms such as Genetic Algorithms (GA), Evolutionary Strategy
(ES), and Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) have shown to be effective
and efficient in locating global optimum of a model with respect to single
objective calibration.
One of the approaches to solve a global optimization problem that
has become popular during the recent years is the use of the so-called
Genetic Algorithms (GA). GA is a robust search paradigm based on the
principles of natural evolution and biological reproduction. For optimizing
calibration of a water distribution model, a genetic algorithm program first
generates a population of trial solutions of the model parameters. A
hydraulic solver then simulates each trial solution. The resulting hydraulic
simulation predicts the junction pressures and pipe flows at a
predetermined number of nodes (or data points) in the network. This
information is then passed back to the associated calibration module. The
calibration module evaluates how closely the model simulation is to the
observed data, the calibration evaluation computes a “goodness-of-fit”
value, which is the discrepancy between the observed data and the model
predicted pipe flows and junction pressures, for each solution. This
goodness-of-fit value is then assigned as the “fitness” for that solution in
the GA.
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 119

One generation produced by the GA is then complete. The fitness


measure is taken into account when performing the next generation of the
GA operations. To find the optimal calibration solutions, fitter solutions
will be selected by mimicking Darwin’s natural selection principal of
“survival of the fittest”. The selected solutions are used to reproduce a next
generation of calibration solutions by performing genetic operations. Over
many generations, the solutions evolve, and the optimal or near optimal
solutions ultimately emerge.
The integration of GIS and hydraulic modeling software, offers
many additional capabilities of analysis and data management. The benefits
of the integration are quite evident. The modeler can save a lot of time in
constructing a network model making use of all the potential that the GIS
offers when it comes to data management, manipulation and analysis.
GISRed is an extension to ESRI’s ArcView GIS software that integrates
the widely used hydraulic modeling software EPANET 2.0 and a
calibration module based on a GA, along with all the original GIS
functions. This “built-in” application was originally conceived to make
water distribution network models, and be used besides, to perform
complex tasks such as importing a whole or partial network from an
external source, creating a hydraulic network model and automatically
calibrating it.
The modeling of the water network using optimization techniques for
the parameter estimation may have convergence problems unless
macrocalibration is performed first to remove crude errors.
Models can be calibrated using one steady-state simulation, but the
more steady-state simulations for which calibration is achieved, the more
closely the model will represent the behavior of the real system. At a
minimum, a steady-state calibration should be performed for a range of
demand conditions. To improve results further, the model should be
calibrated for time-varying conditions using an extended-period simulation.
In Chapter 4, the software packages that provided calibration tools are
listed in Table 4.1. No further information on these calibration tools such as
the algorithms and methods used is available. These were simply the result
of the developers not offering any (or insufficient) information (WSS,
2000).

7.4 State estimation of water network

The physical water network behavior is monitored through a


telemetry system. However only a limited number of flows and heads are
measured directly and they do not constitute a complete picture of the
System State. It is therefore necessary to estimate unknown variables based
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 120

on available measurements and mathematical models of the network


(Pérez, 2003).
The concept of State Estimation has a long history and occupies a
central position in modern control theory. The state can be expressed as the
values of given variables. In traditional system description, the number of
variables must be equal to the number of equations, and the state is
determined as the values of the variables exactly fulfill the equations. In
practices however, the number of variables often is not equal to the number
of equations. Microcalibration process belongs to a class of State
Estimation problems (Pérez, 2003).
The network model is assumed to be represented by flow continuity
equations and by pipe flow-headloss characteristics. Some parameters
appear in the equations, such as roughness and demand factors. The state
estimation problem assumes that these parameters are known so that a
model of the network is available. If all of these parameters are not known
they will have to be estimated as well and the problem becomes a
generalized one, a state and parameter estimation. The calibration process
of a network includes the measurement of physical parameters but some
parameters have to be estimated. These are generally roughness of pipes
and demand distribution factors; this is the state and parameter estimation
problem. The main difference between variables and parameters is that the
latter are constant in time, assuming a determined time horizon.

7.5 Observability and identifiability of water network

Observability is a property of the coupling between the state and the


output. A linear system is observable at t if x(t) can be determined from the
output function y(t0,t) (or output sequence) for t0≤t, where t is some finite
time. If this is true for all t and x(t) it is called completely observable
(Pérez, 2003). Full observability means that the values of all variables are
known.
A problem common to all calibration approaches deals with
identifiability. The problem of identifiability occurs when an
underdetermined calibration problem is being solved. An undetermined
calibration problem is when the number of calibration parameters is larger
than the total number of independent observations. Similar difficulties may
occur even for even-determined or over-determined problems, that is, when
there are at least as many observations as calibration parameters.
Difficulties occur because the set of available observations simply fails to
provide sufficient information for determination of one or more calibration
parameters, for example, pressure monitoring points may not be properly
located to enable identification of all or some of the parameters (Pérez,
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 121

2003).
The identification problem tries to determine parameters such as
roughness and demand coefficients, which are constant (they change in a
large period of time). Also it tries to determine the necessary meters that
have to be installed in order to have a good calibration but not to increase
the cost unnecessarily. When parameters are estimated, identifiability
substitutes observability concept. Problems associated with identifiability
can be overcome by grouping unknown parameters, for example, pipe
roughness coefficients for all pipes that share the same material, diameter,
age, and location, or by increasing the quantity of observed information
through additional field measurements. Grouping is based on the
assumption that pipes laid in roughly the same time period with the same
material will have the same roughness properties. Grouping greatly reduces
the identifiability problem, but it may introduce errors if the pipes and
nodes in a given group should not have the same adjustments applied.
As more measurements are available, namely outputs, the calibration
will be possible or easier and more robust. The variables not measured;
flows, heads, boundary flows, demands, demand factors and roughness
have to be treated as parameters to be determined and a large number of
such unmeasured parameters reduce the identifiability of the system.
As the parameters of the network (roughness and demand factors)
are constant in time they relate measurements taken in different timesteps.
That means that if the same measurements are taken more than once the
number of unknown variables increases but not as the number of equations
does. So a system that is not identifiable with just one timestep can become
identifiable if some timesteps are included. The interest of using more than
one timestep in the measurement makes necessary the generalization of the
identifiability conditions. The identifiability study should determine; which
are the variables that have to be measured, how many timesteps must be
taken into account, and which are the conditions in each timestep that make
all these measurements useful for the calibration.
Water network’s models are in general non-linear, only in special
cases where all heads or flows are measured it will become linear. The
approximation by Taylor series drives to the use of Jacobian to study the
identifiability of the network (Pérez, 2003).

7.6 Problem formulation for network calibration

From a mathematical point of view, the calibration or parameters


identification is an inverse problem, because measurements of state
variables are used to determine the unknown parameters by fitting the
model output with measurement. However, the optimization methods for
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 122

calibration search for a solution describing the unknown calibration


parameters that minimizes an objective function, while simultaneously
satisfying constraints that describe the feasible solution region. The
objective function usually minimizes the sum of the squares of differences
between observed and model-predicted heads and flows.
The total equation number is n = np+nn, where np is the number of
pipes, and nn is the number of nodes. In the forewarned problem nodal
demands are known and the problem unknowns are nodal heads and pipe
flows. They are n, as the equations. We saw in Chapter 5 that these
equations represent an algebraic non-linear system of equations, and can be
written as:
f i (x 1 , x 2 , … , x n ) = 0 i = 1, 2, ..., n (Eq. 7.1)

The unknowns x1, x2,…, xn are nodal heads and pipe flows. System
(Eq. 7.1) can be solved using Newton-Raphson technique. The Jacobian
matrix of this system is:

⎡ ∂ f1 ∂ f1 ⎤
⎢ ... ... ⎥
∂x1 ∂x n
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ... ... ... ... ⎥
A = (Eq. 7.2)
⎢ ... ... ... ... ⎥
⎢ ∂fn ∂fn ⎥
⎢ ... ... ⎥
⎣ ∂x1 ∂x n ⎦

In a calibration problem the network geometry is known, but nodal


demands and pipes roughness are unknowns and named calibration
parameters. Since function fi of system (Eq. 7.1) depends from the
calibration parameters, the system can be written as:

f i (p, x) = 0 i = 1, 2, ..., n (Eq. 7.3)

In which p= (p1, …, pnc) is the vector of the calibration parameters.


For solving a calibration problem, it is necessary to have some
measurements, likes pipe flows or nodal heads. As said, calibration
objective is to choose system parameters so that the differences between
observed and computed values are as small as possible. If the vector of
those unknown parameters is given as p (roughness, demand), the objective
function may be given as:
2

[ ]
N
Min f ( p) = ∑ wi x *
i − xi (p ) (Eq. 7.4)
i =1
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 123

Where:
f(p) = objective function to be minimized
p = vector of unknowns
N = number of observations
wi = weighting factors
x i* = observation (head, flow)
xi (p) = model predicted system variable (head, flow)

The set of constraints associated with this problem are implicit


hydraulic constraints (continuity and energy loss relationships), known
initial conditions (device statuses and tank levels), and boundary conditions
(reservoir levels). Rather than explicitly incorporating the equations of
conservation of mass and energy into the optimization routine, later
approaches have simply called out to a standard hydraulic simulation
program to evaluate the hydraulics of the solution. Then the solution is
passed back to the optimization routine, where the algorithm computes the
objective function, evaluates the constraints, and, if necessary, updates the
decision variables. New values of the decision variables are then passed to
the simulation routine, and the process is repeated until an acceptable
calibration is obtained.

7.7 FINESSE for automatic network calibration

The Water Software Systems (WSS) group in Leicester proposed a


microcalibration procedure where the calibration problem is implemented
in GAMS programming language to solve the optimization problem. The
non-linear programming solver called CONOPT is called by GAMS to
solve the calibration problem.
However, the FINESSE calibration module was developed for the
purpose of WaterMain project in 1998 to calibrate the Trévaresse network
at SCP. This module is not yet robust nor generic and need to be improved;
thus it has been removed from the current version of FINESSE. As users of
FINESSE, we can not modify its codes nor add new module to its interface.
For these reasons, we looked for another calibration tool. EPANET
software was selected because its computational engine can be customized.
In addition it is easy to be used and free. EPANET Programmer’s Toolkit is
a dynamic link library (DLL) of functions that allow developers to
customize EPANET’s computational engine for their own specific needs.
The functions can be incorporated into 32-bit Windows applications written
in C/C++, Delphi Pascal, Visual Basic, or any other language that can call
functions within a Windows DLL. There are over 50 functions that can be
used to open a network description file, read and modify various network
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 124

design and operating parameters, run multiple extended period simulations


accessing results as they are generated or saving them to file, and write
selected results to file in a user-specified format (EPA website).

7.8 Calibrating “Toulon Est” network

This section aims to present an automatic trial-and-error calibration


approach of the pipe roughness using EPANET software and to apply it to
“Toulon Est” network. For this intention, a visual basic macro was written
in MS Excel to perform the calibration process using extended-period
measurements of the flows and pressures available from the SCADA
system at SCP’s control center. This macro is linked to a simulation model
for “Toulon Est” network that was built in EPANET simulation software.
The macro will be called here “EPAXL Calibrator” and it will be presented
in the following section. This calibration work is divided into two parts:

Part#1: Single-period calibration

Part#2: Extended-period calibration

7.8.1 “EPAXL Calibrator” approach

Now, I will present the automatic trial-and-error calibration approach


used in this work to calibrate the pipes roughness for “Toulon Est” network
using EPAXL Calibrator. The calibrator is a visual basic macro created in
MS Excel. This macro is linked to EPANET software and its function is to
prepare the extended-period calibration data (flows and pressures) and
export those to the simulation model created in EPANET for the case in
hand and it triggers the simulation process and then sends the simulated
pressures back to excel and compares them to the measured pressures.
The hydraulic head lost by water flowing in a pipe due to friction
with the pipe walls can be computed using one of three different formulas
(Rossman, 2000):

¾ Darcy-Weisbach formula
¾ Hazen-Williams formula
¾ Chezy-Manning formula

The Darcy-Weisbach formula is the most theoretically correct


(Rossman, 2000). It applies over all flow regimes and to all liquids, and it
is usually used at SCP to calculate the headloss and hence for these raisons
it will be used in this work. Darcy-Weisbach formula uses the following
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 125

equation to compute headloss between the start and end node of the pipe:

8 fL
hf = × Q2 ( Eq . 7 .5 )
gπ D
2 5

Where:
hf = pipe headloss (m)
Q = pipe flow (m3/s)
D = pipe diameter (m)
L = pipe length (m)
f = Darcy-Weisbach friction factor

In Chapter 5 (see section 5.3) we introduced Colebrook equation that


expresses the friction factor as a function of relative roughness and
Reynolds number (Re) and we saw that there are many implicit and explicit
forms for this equation. EPANET uses different methods to compute the
friction factor ( f ) depending on the flow’s Reynolds Number (Re):

1. The Hagen–Poiseuille formula is used for laminar flow (Re < 2,000).

64
f = ( Eq . 7 .6 )
Re

2. Or by a cubic interpolation from the Moody Diagram is used for


transitional flow (2,000 < Re < 4,000).

3. The Swamee and Jain approximation to the Colebrook-White equation


is used for fully turbulent flow (Re > 4,000).
0 . 25
f = 2
( Eq . 7 .7 )
⎡ ⎛ ε 5 . 74 ⎞⎤
⎢ Log ⎜ 3 . 7 D + Re 0 .9 ⎟⎥
⎣ ⎝ ⎠⎦

4Q
Re = ( Eq . 7 .8 )
πD ν

( ν ) is the water kinematic viscosity and it equals to 1.0x 10-6 m2/s


at 20 °C. ( ε ) is the pipe roughness in mm and this is the calibration
parameter.
EPAXL Calibrator has two options for the pipe roughness
calibration; Option #1 assumes that all the pipes have the same roughness
(ε), and Option #2 assumes that the pipes have different roughness values.
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 126

A) Option #1: All the pipes have the same roughness

We simplify the problem by assuming that the roughness is the same


for all the pipes. The calibration problem is treated as optimization problem
where the objective function is that the residuals between measured and
simulated pressures are as small as possible. If the pressure is measured at
(N) nodes in the system over an extended period (T), the objective function
can be given as:

N T
Minimize R (ε ) = ∑∑ Ps ( i , t ) − Pm ( i , t ) (Eq . 7 .9 )
i =1 t =1

Where:
R(ε ) = objective function to minimize (Residual).
ε = unknown variable (Roughness).
Pm = measured pressure.
Ps = simulated pressure.
N = number of nodes at which the pressures are measured.
T = length of the extended period.

The set of constraints associated with this problem are continuity and
headloss equations. The calibration module attempts to find the roughness
at which R(ε) is minimal, and we will call this value as ε optimal. The problem
is solved by iteration on ε such that for each value of ε the calibrator will
send this value to EPANET and the nodes pressures are evaluated. Then the
solution is passed back to the calibration module, where the objective
function R(ε) is evaluated. To initiate the calibration process we have to
define the minimum and maximum value of ε, and also the increment by
which the roughness will grow throughout the calibration process (εminimum,
εmaximum, and εincrement). When the objective function is evaluated for all
values of ε, the R(ε)minimal and thus ε optimal are determined and then the average
of the absolute differences between the simulated and measured pressures
( Δ P ), standard error (σ), and confidence interval (C.I.) are evaluated at
ε optimal. The calibration approach is shown in the schema of Figure 7.1.
Furthermore, this approach and module described here to calibrate “Toulon
Est” network can be used to calibrate pipe roughness for any network.

B) Option #2: Pipes have different roughness values

In this option we calibrate the pipes such that each pipe has its own
roughness ε and of course this is closer to the reality than assigning a
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 127

unique value for all the pipes. For this purpose, the same approach
described in the previous paragraph and in Figure 7.3 is applied. But in this
case the procedure is executed for each pipe instead of executing it only
once for all the pipes as in the first option. However, EPAXL Calibrator is
able to do this task automatically. In Option#1 the initial roughness is set to
ε i = ε minimum at the beginning of the iteration process, but in this option the
calibrator randomly generates and assigns roughness for each pipe within
the predefined constrains: ε minimum ≤ ε ≤ ε maximum, this could reduce the time
required to find a solution. Then the procedure in Figure 7.1 is repeated for
each pipe and at the end of the iteration new ε-values are obtained. For
each iteration, the new ε-values are compared to the ε-values obtained from
the previous iteration and if the ε-values do not change any more then the
process is terminated and an optimal solution is found.
EPAXL Calibrator approach will be applied to “Toulon Est” network
to calibrate its mainline roughness and for this purpose a simulation model
for the “Toulon Est” mainline was built in EPANET simulation software
and it will be introduced in the next section. On the 1st February 2006 the
SCP’s Maintenance Division has performed two field measurements test on
this network in order to estimate the evolution of the mainline roughness of
“Toulon Est”. The results of these field measurements tests will be
presented, and then the same field measurements will be provided to
EPAXL Calibrator to validate the approach presented here above and the
results of this calibration also will be presented, commented on and
compared with the SCP results.

7.8.2 Schematic diagram of the mainline of “Toulon Est” network

The mainline of “Toulon Est”, dated from 1970s, is composed of


steel pipe approximately 43 km in length and 1,250 mm to 700 mm in
diameter. The water flows under gravity through these pipes. The network
has been presented in Chapter 2 of this thesis. All the hydraulic
measurements of “Toulon Est” necessary for the calibration and their
locations on the mainline are described and indicated in Table 7.1 and
Figure 7.2.
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 128

Figure 7.1 : Calibration approach for pipe roughness

Input
Extended period Extended period ε bounds:
EPANET ε minimum
demand flows measured pressures
Network Model ε maximum
(Q) (Hm)
ε increment

Calibration Module

Start

Set: i = 1 , R(ε)minimal = ∞ , ε i = ε minimum

Export the extended period


demands to EPANET

Set Roughness = ε i
for all pipes

Run EPANET and get extended


period simulated pressures

Evaluate the objective


function R(ε i)

Check Yes R(ε)minimal = R(ε i)


R(ε i)<= Rminimum ?
ε optimal = ε i
No
ε i+1 = ε i + ε increment
i=i+1

No Check
ε i > ε maximum ?

Yes
Stop

Output
R( ε optimal )
(ε optimal , Δ P = , C.I. )
N×T
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 129

7.8.3 Part#1: Single-period calibration

In this part we will use a single-period (or a steady-state) field


measurements to estimate the pipes roughness.

Table 7.1 : Description of hydraulic measurements of “Toulon Est”


Symbol Description Comment
Q1 Total flow entering the system (m3 /s) Measured
Q2 CEO company water demand (m3/s) Measured
Q3 Pierrascas tank inflow (m3 /s) Measured
Q4 La Bastidette water demand (m3 /s) Measured
Q5 Fenouillet tank inflow (m3 /s) Measured
Q6 Mont Redon tank inflow (m3 /s) Measured
Q7 Golf Hôtel tank inflow (m3 /s) Measured
Q8 La Pascalette water demand (m3 /s) Measured
Q9 Trapan dam inflow (m3 /s) Measured
Q10 La Môle water demand at Point M Measured
P Pressure measurements on the mainline ( bar) Measured
q1 , q2 Water demand taken directly from the mainline Non- Measured

Figure 7.2 : Schematic diagram of the mainline of “Toulon Est” network

Les Laures

Q1
Fenouillet Golf_Hôtel
Pierrascas
Trapan
Mont Redon
Q3 Q5
Q6 Q7 Q9
P P P La Môle
A B C E F G H K T M Q10

P P P P P P
Q2 Q4 Q8

q1 q2

CEO La Bastidette La Pascalette

Legend:
q Non-Measured Q Water P Pressure
Node
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 130

7.8.4 SCP’s Maintenance Division calibration tests

The Maintenance Division has performed two field measurements


tests on “Toulon Est” network. For the purpose of the tests, water was
delivered only to the following consumption points: Point H (Golf Hôtel),
Point T (Trapan), and Point M (La Môle). The pressure measurements were
made at the following points: A, C, E, F, G, H, K, and T.
The SCP’s Maintenance Division computes pipe roughness by using
a pre-prepared commercial excel sheet, named “CLA-VAL SIZING
SOFTWARE” and developed by CLA-VAL Company-UK (SCP’s
Maintenance Division). It uses Darcy-Weisbach formula (Eq. 7.5) to
compute pipe headloss and the friction factor ( f ) is calculated from an
implicit commercial formula:

0 . 25
f = 2
( Eq . 7 . 10 )
⎡ ⎛ ε 2 . 51 ⎞⎤
⎢ Log ⎜⎜ + ⎟⎟ ⎥
⎣ ⎝ 3 . 7 D Re ( f + 0 . 00001 )0 .5 ⎠⎦

The water kinematic viscosity ( ν ) used to calculate Reynolds


Number from (Eq. 7.8) and the acceleration of gravity (g) are set by default
to 1.3 x 10-6 m2/s (at 10 °C) and 10.0 m/s2 respectively. For the purpose of
this calibration, we changed these values to be the same as those used in
EPANET software (ν =1.0x 10-6 m2/s at 20 °C, g = 9.82 m/s2 where these
values are more realistic). The solution finding procedure is not automatic.
For each pipe, the user has to manually change the cell assigned for pipe
roughness, and the friction factor and, hence, headlosses are computed.
Then the user compares the computed headloss with the headloss obtained
by field measurement. This process is repeated until the computed headloss
is equal to the headloss obtained by field measurement. The results
obtained by this procedure for each test are summarized here after.

‰ Test#1_SCP

Table 7.2 : Flow measurements during Test#1_SCP


Date and Time Average Flow (l/s)
Q_Point H = 504 l/s
st
1 February 2006 Q_Point T = 570 l/s
10:10 AM - 11:30 AM
Q_Point M = 0 l/s
Q_Total = 1,074 l/s
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 131

Table 7.3 : Calibration results for Test#1_SCP


Q L DN Pup Pdown Hf ε_SCP#1
Pipe
(l/s) (m) (mm) (m) (m) (m) (mm)
A-C 1,074 3,063 1,250 20.98 195.48 2.52 3.79
C-E 1,074 2,714 1,050 195.48 237.64 5.93 4.61
E-F 1,074 4,000 1,050 237.64 248.67 7.81 3.11
F-G 1,074 2,264 900 248.67 255.01 9.30 2.42
G-H 1,074 3,774 900 255.01 250.10 14.10 1.69
H-K 570 4,786 700 250.10 231.23 20.70 2.34
K-T 570 7,414 700 231.23 142.52 29.45 1.72

‰ Test#2_SCP

Table 7.4 : Flow measurements during Test#2_SCP


Date and Time Average Flow (l/s)
Q_Point H = 0 l/s
11:30 AM - 12:55 PM Q_Point T = 360 l/s
1st feburary 2006
Q_Point M = 400 l/s
Q_Total = 760 l/s

Table 7.5 : Calibration results for Test#2_SCP


Q L DN Pup Pdown Hf ε_SCP #2
Pipe
(l/s) (m) (mm) (m) (m) (m) (mm)
A-C 760 3,063 1,250 21.11 196.99 1.14 2.57
C-E 760 2,714 1,050 196.99 241.81 3.27 6.33
E-F 760 4,000 1,050 241.81 256.90 3.75 2.64
F-G 760 2,264 900 256.90 267.67 4.87 2.83
G-H 760 3,774 900 267.67 269.95 6.91 1.54
H-K 760 4,786 700 269.95 234.55 37.23 2.45
K-T 760 7,414 700 234.55 122.31 52.98 1.80
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 132

7.8.5 EPAXL Calibrator results

An EPANET simulation model was built for the “Toulon Est”


mainline shown in Figure 7.2, then EPAXL Calibrator was executed to
calibrate the pipes roughness. The EPAXL Calibrator performed: a steady-
state calibration (single-period hydraulic analysis) using the field
measurements for Test#1, a steady- state calibration using the field
measurements for Test#2, and a calibration using the field measurements
for both Test#1 and Test#2. For these calibrations, we set the roughness
bounds such that:

(εminimum =0.05 mm) ≤ εoptimal ≤ (εmaximum =10.0 mm)

εincrement =0.05 mm.

For each calibration, in order to estimate the confidence interval for


the pipe roughness we carried out a stochastic analysis. From the pressures
measurements we randomly generate new pressures values (Pr) such that:

P m - σ ≤ Pr ≤ P m + σ

Where:
Pm = measured pressure (m)
Pr = randomly generated pressure (m)
σ = standard error of the pressure device (m)

The accuracy of the pressure device is about ± 1.0 m, this equals to


3σ, thus σ = 0.3 m. Each time new pressure values generated, EPAXL uses
these values to find new roughness values. This procedure is repeated 20
times, and hence 20 values for the roughness are obtained for each pipe and
the confidence interval is estimated from these values. The optimal solution
(ε-values) and the results of this analysis are summarized in the following
tables:
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 133

‰ Test#1_EPAXL

Table 7.6 : Calibration results for Test#1_EPAXL


ε_EPAXL#1
Pipe C.I.
(mm)
A-C 3.50 0.13
C-E 6.00 0.18
E-F 2.70 0.12
F-G 2.30 0.14
G-H 1.60 0.10
H-K 2.35 0.14
K-T 1.70 0.10

‰ Test#2_EPAXL

Table 7.7 : Calibration results for Test#2_EPAXL

ε_EPAXL#2
Pipe C.I.
(mm)

A-C 2.55 0.11

C-E 6.35 0.13

E-F 2.85 0.08

F-G 2.60 0.11

G-H 1.50 0.10

H-K 2.55 0.11

K-T 1.70 0.12


7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 134

‰ Test#1 and Test#2_EPAXL

Table 7.8 : Calibration results for Test#1 and Test#2_EPAXL

ε_EPAXL
Pipe C.I.
(mm)

A-C 4.35 0.20

C-E 6.25 0.23

E-F 2.15 0.25

F-G 2.45 0.26

G-H 1.45 0.19

H-K 2.50 0.17

K-T 1.75 0.21

Figure 7.3 : ε_values computed by EPAXL


7

ε_EPAXL# 1
6
ε_EPAXL# 2
ε_EPAXL
5
Roughness (mm)

0
Pipe A-C Pipe C-E Pipe E-F Pipe F-G Pipe G-H Pipe H-K Pipe K-T

7.8.6 Calibration results discussion

We will discuss and comment on the calibration results in the


following manner:
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 135

A) First we will compare the ε-values of Test#1_SCP to the ε-values of


Test#2_SCP.
B) Then we will compare the ε-values of the Test#1_EPAXL to the ε-
values of Test#2_EPAXL. Some remarks on A and B will be made.
C) Then we will compare the ε-values of Test#1_SCP to the ε-values
of Test#1_EPAXL.
D) Then we will compare the ε-values of Test#2_SCP to the ε-values
of Test#2_EPAXL. Some remarks on C and D will be made.
E) And then we will discuss and comment on the calibration results
and the errors and discrepancies between Test#1 and Test#2 and
between SCP and EPAXL results; if there is any.

A) Differences between ε_SCP#1 and ε_SCP#2

The ε-values of Test#1_SCP (ε_SCP#1 in Table 7.3) were different


from the ε-values of Test#2_SCP (ε_SCP#2 in Table 7.5) and the
differences (ε_SCP#2 - ε_SCP#1) are calculated for each pipe section as a
percentage of ε_SCP#1, and also the average roughness of the two tests are
calculated (έ_SCP):

Table 7.9 : Differences between ε_SCP#1 and ε_SCP#2


ε_SCP #1 ε_SCP #2 Difference έ_SCP
Pipe
(mm) (mm) (%) (mm)
A-C 3.79 2.57 -32.2 3.18
C-E 4.61 6.33 37.3 5.47
E-F 3.11 2.64 -15.1 2.88
F-G 2.42 2.83 16.9 2.63
G-H 1.69 1.54 -8.9 1.62
H-K 2.34 2.45 4.7 2.40
K-T 1.72 1.80 4.7 1.76

B) Differences between ε_EPAXL#1 and ε_EPAXL#2

The same is applied on EPAXL where the ε-values of


Test#1_EPAXL (ε_EPAXL#1 in
Table 7.6) were different from the ε-values of Test#2_EPAXL
(ε_EPAXL#2 in Table 7.7) and the differences (ε_EPAXL#2 -
ε_EPAXL#1) are calculated for each pipe section as a percentage of
ε_EPAXL#1, and also the average roughness of the two tests are calculated
(έ_ EPAXL):
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 136

Table 7.10 : Differences between ε_ EPAXL#1 and ε_ EPAXL#2


ε_EPAXL#1 ε_EPAXL#2 Difference έ_EPAXL
Pipe
(mm) (mm) (%) (mm)
A-C 3.50 2.55 -27.1 3.03
C-E 6.00 6.35 5.8 6.18
E-F 2.70 2.85 5.6 2.78
F-G 2.30 2.60 13.0 2.45
G-H 1.60 1.50 -6.3 1.55
H-K 2.35 2.55 8.5 2.45
K-T 1.70 1.70 0.0 1.70

• Remarks on (A) and (B)

For both A and B the differences are plotted on Figure 7.4. One can
see that the differences between ε-values of Test#1_SCP and those of
Test#2_SCP are considerable and they lie between 4.7% and 37.3%. The ε-
values for Pipes: A-C, E-F, and G-H decreased, while for Pipes: C-E, F-G,
H-K, and K-T the ε-values increased. On the other hand, because the same
field measurements were used in EPAXL different ε-values were obtained
but the differences between ε-values of Test#1_EPAXL and those of
Test#2_EPAXL are less and they lie between 0.0% and 27.1%. The ε-
values for Pipes: A-C and G-H decreased, while for Pipes: C-E, E-F, F-G,
H-K, and K-T the ε-values increased.

Figure 7.4 : Differences between ε_values of Test#1 and Test#2


40
ε_SCP ε_EPAXL
30

20
Difference (% )

10

0
Pipe A-C Pipe C-E Pipe E-F Pipe F-G Pipe G-H Pipe H-K Pipe K-T
-10

-20

-30

-40
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 137

C) Comparison between ε_SCP#1 and ε_EPAXL#1

The ε_values of EPAXL will now compared to those of SCP for


Test#1 and then for Test#2. The differences between ε_SCP#1 and
ε_EPAXL#1 (ε_SCP#1 - ε_EPAXL#1) are calculated for each pipe section
as a percentage of ε_SCP#1:

Table 7.11 : Difference between ε_SCP#1 and ε_EPAXL#1


ε_SCP#1 ε_EPAXL#1 Difference
Pipe
(mm) (mm) (%)
A-C 3.79 3.50 7.7
C-E 4.61 6.00 -30.2
E-F 3.11 2.70 13.2
F-G 2.42 2.30 5.0
G-H 1.69 1.60 5.3
H-K 2.34 2.35 -0.4
K-T 1.72 1.70 1.2

D) Comparison between ε_SCP#2 and ε_EPAXL#2

The same as for Test#1, the differences between ε_SCP#2 and


ε_EPAXL#2 (ε_SCP#2 - ε_EPAXL#2) are calculated for each pipe section
as a percentage of ε_SCP#2:

Table 7.12 : Difference between ε_SCP#2 and ε_EPAXL#2


ε_SCP#2 ε_EPAXL#2 Difference
Pipe
(mm) (mm) (%)
A-C 2.57 2.55 0.8
C-E 6.33 6.35 -0.3
E-F 2.64 2.85 -8.0
F-G 2.83 2.60 8.1
G-H 1.54 1.50 2.6
H-K 2.45 2.55 -4.1
K-T 1.80 1.70 5.6

• Remarks on (C) and (D)

For both C and D the differences are plotted on Figure 7.5. One can
see that the ε-values of EPAXL and SCP are not the same and the
differences lie between 0.4% and 30.2% for Test#1, and between 0.3% and
8.1% for Test#2. Roughly speaking, the ε-values of EPAXL are less than
those of SCP.
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 138

Figure 7.5 : Differences between ε_values of SCP and EPAXL


35
Test # 1
Test # 2
25

15
D ifference (% )

-5 Pipe A-C Pipe C-E Pipe E-F Pipe F-G Pipe G-H Pipe H-K Pipe K-T

-15

-25

-35

E) Discussion and errors sources

Before passing judgment on EPAXL, let’s first consider the two field
measurements and the results obtained by the SCP’s Maintenance Division.
The two field measurements were made under controlled conditions and by
the same team and with the same measuring devices (flowmeters and
pressure sensors). According to the persons who carried out the tests, the
main source of errors during the test is due to the accuracies of the
measuring devices. The accuracies of the measuring devices are:

ƒ Flowmeters: ±1.0% (Scale 4,000 l/s thus ±40 l/s).


ƒ Pressure sensor ±0.5% (Scale 10 bar thus ±0.05 bar or ±0.5 m) at
Point A.
ƒ Pressure sensor ±0.5% (Scale 30 bar thus ±0.15 bar or ±1.5 m) at
Points C, E, F, G, H, K, and T.

The devices can be considered accurate. Even though, each test gave
ε_values different from the other test as shown in (A) where the difference
was up to 40%.
For both tests, the calculated total headloss in the pipes were
considered only due to the pipe friction and then they were used in Darcy-
Weisbach formula (Eq. 7.5) to calculate the pipe roughness. But in fact, the
total headloss is composed of the friction headloss due to the pipe
roughness and of the minor headloss due to the pipe fitting (elbows, tees,
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 139

valves, etc). The same for EPAXL where in the simulation model for
“Toulon Est” built in EPANET the pipe fittings are not considered and only
the mainline pipe was modeled. Moreover, the pipe diameters used in these
calculations are the nominal diameters of the steel pipes, but in fact a
concrete lining was applied to the inner surface of the mainline pipe of
“Toulon Est”. The thickness of this lining is estimated between 8 mm and
12 mm.
The roughness obtained by the SCP’s Maintenance Division are
computed by using a pre-prepared excel sheet and the formula of (Eq. 7.10)
as we mentioned previously (see section 7.8.4). It is clear that this implicit
formula is not the same as the explicit formula in (Eq. 7.7) used in
EPANET software to compute the friction factor ( f ). To show how this
causes some discrepancies between the calibration results of the SCP’
Maintenance Division and that of EPAXL Calibrator the following
simulation are performed:

1. The ε-values of Test#1_SCP are passed to the EPANET model of


“Toulon Est” and EPANET is executed and then the differences
between the measured pressures (Pm) and simulated pressures
(Ps_ε_SCP) are calculated.
2. The ε-values of Test#1_EPAXL are passed to the EPANET model of
“Toulon Est” and EPANET is executed and then the differences
between the measured pressures (Pm) and simulated pressures
(Ps_ε_EPAXL) are calculated.
3. The ε-values of Test#2_SCP are passed to the EPANET model of
“Toulon Est” and EPANET is executed and then the differences
between the measured pressures (Pm) and simulated pressures
(Ps_ε_SCP) are calculated.
4. The ε-values of Test#2_EPAXL are passed to the EPANET model of
“Toulon Est” and EPANET is executed and then the differences
between the measured pressures (Pm) and simulated pressures
(Ps_ε_EPAXL) are calculated.

The results of simulations (1) and (2) are shown in Table 7.13 and
Figure 7.6, and the results of simulations (3) and (4) are shown in Table
7.14 and Figure 7.7. For each simulation the average of the differences
between the measured and simulated pressures (average ∆|P|), standard
error (σ), and confidence interval (C.I.) are computed. One can note that
for both tests the simulated pressures using the ε-values of EPAXL
(Ps_ε_EPAXL) are closer to the measured pressures (Pm) than the
simulated pressures using the ε-values of SCP (Ps_ε_SCP) as shown in the
figures and the tables. Moreover, we perceive that the Ps_ε_SCP is always
less than the Pm and the deviation from Pm increases, almost exponentially,
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 140

as we move downstream the mainline from Point A to Point K. In fact, this


is because of that the ε-values of SCP passed to the simulation model are
not computed by using the same formula in EPANET as we mentioned in
the previous paragraph, and since these values are a little higher than those
of EPAXL Calibrator the headloss are also a little higher in each pipe and
this additional headloss accumulate as one moves downstream the mainline
from Point A to Point K.

Table 7.13 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#1


Pm (Pm) - (Ps_ε_SCP) (Pm) - (Ps_ε_EPAXL)
Point
(m) (m) (m)
A 20.98 0.00 0.00
C 195.48 0.07 -0.05
E 237.64 0.10 0.46
F 248.67 0.15 0.18
G 255.01 0.21 0.08
H 250.10 0.26 -0.08
K 231.23 0.32 0.01
T 142.52 0.44 0.04
Average ∆|P| = 0.19 0.13
Stander error σ = 0.14 0.15
Confidence Interval CI= 0.10 0.10

Figure 7.6 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#1

0.50
(Pm) - (Ps_ε_SCP)
(Pm) - (Ps_ε_EPAXL)
0.40

0.30
Pressure Difference (m )

0.20

0.10

0.00

A C E F G H K T

-0.10

-0.20
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 141

Table 7.14 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#2


Pm (Pm) - (Ps_ε_SCP) (Pm) - (Ps_ε_EPAXL)
Point
(m) (m) (m)
A 21.11 0.00 0.00
C 196.99 0.03 0.00
E 241.81 0.05 0.01
F 256.90 0.09 0.10
G 267.67 0.12 0.01
H 269.95 0.27 -0.01
K 234.55 0.54 0.51
T 122.31 0.84 -0.16
Average ∆|P| = 0.24 0.11
Stander error σ = 0.30 0.18
Confidence Interval CI= 0.21 0.12

Figure 7.7 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#2


1.00
(Pm) - (Ps_ε_SCP)
(Pm) - (Ps_ε_EPAXL)
0.80
P re s s u re D iffe re n c e (m )

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

A C E F G H K T

-0.20
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 142

7.8.7 Part#2: Extended-period calibration

In this part we will perform an extended-period calibration to


estimate the pipes roughness by using extended-period measurements of
the flows and pressures available from the SCADA system at SCP’s control
center for “Toulon-Est” network.

7.8.8 Continuity equation

We will apply the continuity equation to the “Toulon Est” network;


in other words, the total flow entering the network at Point A (Les Laures)
must be equal to the total demands leaving the network. The continuity
equation can be written like this:

Qin = Qout ⎫
Where: ⎪

⎬ (Eq. 7.11)
Qin = Q1 ⎪
Qout = Q2 + Q3 + Q4 + Q5 + Q6 + Q7 + Q8 + Q9 + Q10 + (q1+ q2)⎪⎭

For the non measured demand q1 and q2 we do not have records for
these demands, but however they are very small with respect to the other
measured demands and thus they will be neglected in this calibration.
Another parameter that doesn’t appear in the right-hand side of (Eq.
7.11) is the “unaccounted-for water” (the portion of total consumption that
is lost due to system leakage, unmetered services, or other causes).
According to the SCP’s Maintenance Division this portion is approximately
8% of the total consumption.
The calibration data that used here are the hourly measured flows (Q)
and pressures (P) for three selected periods:

- From 1st to 7th of April 2005.


- From 1st to 7th of August 2005.
- From 1st to 7th of October 2005.

First of all, we will check the validity of the continuity equation (Eq.
7.11). Figure 7.8 shows the hourly Qin and Qout during these selected
periods. Then, the differences between Qin and Qout (∆Q) are calculated and
plotted in Figure 7.9. The average ∆Q is about -2.4 ± 2.3 l/s.
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 143

Figure 7.8 : Hourly total water demand – Toulon Est, Year 2005
2.5

Qin

Qout
2.0
Hourly demand (m3/s)

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
1st to 7th of April 2005 1st to 7th of August 2005 1st to 7th of October 2005

Figure 7.9 : Differences between system inflows and outflows


0.08
∆Q = (Qout - Qin ) Average ∆Q=-2.4

0.06 ∆Q C.I. =2.3 l/s

0.04
∆Q (m3/s)

0.02

0.00

-0.02

-0.04

-0.06

-0.08
1st to 7th of April 2005 1st to 7th of August 2005 1st to 7th of October 2005

7.8.9 Extended-period calibration approach

We will perform two extended-period calibrations using the demand


flows and pressures for the previously mentioned periods. The first
calibration is a direct approach and the second one is EPAXL Calibrator
approach.

A. Direct approach
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 144

As one can see on the hydraulic schema of “Toulon Est” (Figure 7.2)
the pressures are measured at the start and end node of each pipe (except
for pipe K-T and pipe T-M where no pressure data is available at the SCP’s
control center) and the pipe’s flow can be calculated from the continuity
equation at each node. Therefore, the pipes can be calibrated easily. From
the pressure measurement at the start and end node for a pipe we compute
the total head at each node (node’s elevation + node’s pressure), and the
difference between total head at the start and end node is the headloss in
that pipe (hf). The roughness can be obtained in two manners:

A.1 Linear regression

Let’s rewrite Darcy-Weisbach formula given by (Eq. 7.5) like this:

hf = k Q2 + e ( Eq . 7 .12 )
8 fL
Where : k = and the friction factor ( f ) is computed from
gπ 2D 5
Colebrook-White equation (Eq. 7.7) and it depends on the pipe flow (Q).
However, for Reynolds Number Re > 25,000 and relative roughness (ε/D >
3.5 x 10-5) the Colebrook-White equation can be reduced to:

0 . 25
fˆ = 2
( Eq . 7 . 13 )
⎡ ⎛ ε ⎞⎤
⎢ Log ⎜ + 1 . 06 × 10 − 5 ⎟ ⎥
⎣ ⎝ 3 .7 D ⎠⎦

(Eq. 7.7) is plotted against (Eq. 7.13) on Figure 7.10. The differences
between friction factors computed by the two equations are less than ±3%.

Figure 7.10 : Colebrook vs. simplified friction factor equations


0.08

0.07 f = 1.0008 fˆ
0.06
R 2 = 0 .9998
0.05
f

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08


7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 145

Thus, the friction factor is not anymore function of the pipe flow and
if we perform linear regression between (hf) and (Q2) for each pipe, the
slope k of (Eq. 7.12) can be estimated and, hence, the friction factor f and
then the pipe roughness ε also can be estimated. The small e that appears in
(Eq.7.12) is the intercept with the vertical abscissas (hf) and it must be zero
in the ideal case.

‰ Linear regression results

The linear regression and parameters estimation were carried out


using the statistical analysis software “NCSS” (Hintze, 2005) and the
results are summarized in Table 7.15. The headloss (hf) are plotted versus
the pipe’s flows squared (Q2) for each pipe as shown on the figures below:

Table 7.15 : Results for linear regression parameters estimation - 2005


Pipe L (m) D (mm) k (s2 /m5) f ε_Reg_05 (mm) e (m)
Pipe A-B 1,050 1,250 0.948 ± 0.023 0.033 8.44 ± 0.66 2.767 ± 0.060
Pipe B-C 665 1,000 1.717 ± 0.053 0.031 4.94 ± 0.53 0.465 ± 0.081
Pipe C-E 2,716 1,050 5.317 ± 0.125 0.030 4.76 ± 0.40 0.718 ± 0.138
Pipe E-F 3,964 1,050 7.239 ± 0.251 0.028 3.60 ± 0.47 1.762 ± 0.217
Pipe F-G 2,264 900 9.038 ± 0.291 0.029 3.24 ± 0.39 -0.777 ± 0.195
Pipe G-H 3,774 900 13.718 ± 0.432 0.026 2.32 ± 0.29 0.306 ± 0.245
Pipe H-K 4,789 700 71.570 ± 2.049 0.030 3.17 ± 0.32 -0.765 ± 0.557

Figure 7.11 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe A-B


9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0
hf (m)

5.0

R-Squared = 0.93
4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
2 6 2
Q (m /s )
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 146

Figure 7.12 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe B-C


8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0
hf (m)

4.0

3.0
R-Squared = 0.88
2.0

1.0

0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
-1.0

Q2 (m6/s2)

Figure 7.13 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe C-E


15.0

13.0

11.0

9.0
hf (m)

7.0

5.0
R-Squared = 0.93

3.0

1.0

-1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Q2 (m6/s2)
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 147

Figure 7.14 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe E-F


16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0
hf (m)

8.0

6.0
R-Squared = 0.86
4.0

2.0

0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
-2.0

Q2 (m6/s2)

Figure 7.15 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe F-G


12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0
hf (m)

4.0
R-Squared = 0.87
2.0

0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

-2.0

Q2 (m6/s2)
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 148

Figure 7.16 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe G-H


17.0

15.0

13.0

11.0
hf (m)

9.0

7.0

5.0
R-Squared = 0.88
3.0

1.0

-1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2


2 6 2
Q (m /s )

Figure 7.17 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe H-K


37.0

32.0

27.0

22.0
hf (m)

17.0

12.0

R-Squared = 0.90
7.0

2.0

0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
-3.0

Q2 (m6/s2)
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 149

‰ Discussion of linear regression results

In the ideal case where the pressure and flow measurements are
accurate then plotting (hf) versus (Q2) must perfectly fit a straight line
whose intercept is equal zero. In practice, nothing is ideal and the
measuring devices are not perfectly accurate and, hence, there are always
errors in the measured parameters. As shown on the figures from the linear
regression performed here, the points (hf, Q2) are not perfectly linear as R-
squared between 0.86 and 0.93, and the intercept (e) is not null. This
mainly is because of the errors in the measured pressures and flows and
also because of the fact that we did assume that the headloss are only due to
the friction in the pipe and we ignored the loss due to pipe fittings.
For Pipe A-B, the intercept was significant (2.767 m) and the
estimated roughness was high (8.44 ± 0.66 mm) and this is because in the
reality there is an electromagnetic flowmeter, a butterfly control valve and
filter in proximity to point A (see Figure 2.3) and the headloss in these
device is important even it might be higher than the friction headloss.
However, for Pipe F-G and Pipe H-K the intercepts were negtive and
relativly small (-0.777 ± 0.195 m for Pipe F-G, and -0.765 ± 0.557 m for
Pipe H-K) and this might be explained by that the errors are more
important than the fitting headloss in these two pipes.

A.2 Equation inversion

From Darcy-Weisbach formula given by (Eq. 7.5) we can obtain:


gπ 2 D 5 h f
f = × 2 ( Eq . 7 .14 )
8L Q
Also, from the reduced Colebrook-White equation (Eq. 7.13) we can
obtain:

⎡ −0.ˆ5 ⎤

ε = 3 .7 D 10 f
− 1 .06 × 10 ⎥
−5
( Eq . 7 .15 )
⎢ ⎥
⎣ ⎦
Substitute (Eq. 7.14) in (Eq. 7.15) :

⎡ − 0 .5

⎢ gπ D 5 h f

2
× 2
ε = 3 . 7 D ⎢10 − 1 . 06 × 10 ⎥
8L Q −5
( Eq . 7 . 16 )
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣ ⎦
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 150

This inverted equation explicitly states pipe roughness (ε) as a


function of pipe headloss (hf), flow (Q), length (L), and diameter (D). For
each pipe and for each pair (hf, Q) from the extended-period measurements
of the flows and pressures available from the SCADA system at SCP’s
control center for the previously mentioned periods, a roughness value can
be computed. Then, the average roughness and its confidence interval can
be estimated for each pipe. The results are summarized in Table 7.16:

Table 7.16 : Calibration results for equation inversion

Pipe ε_EqIn_05 (mm)

Pipe A-B 310.08 ± 28.16


Pipe B-C 24.53 ± 4.93
Pipe C-E 16.95 ± 3.83
Pipe E-F 17.22 ± 1.94
Pipe F-G 3.84 ± 1.22
Pipe G-H 7.10 ± 2.07
Pipe H-K 5.80 ± 1.90

The roughness values obtained by equation inversion are very large


for Pipe A-B, B-C, C-E, and E-F; even they are not physically possible.
This is not due to the equation inversion but it is due to the errors in the
measured pressures and flows and also because we did assume that the
headloss are only due to the friction in the pipe and we ignored the loss due
to pipe fittings. The inverted equation (Eq. 7.16) is a mathematical solution
for pipe roughness and considers the headloss and flow as being accurate.
If we assume that the error in the measured pressures plus minor headloss
for Pipe A-B are roughly 2.0 m and we subtract this from the calculated
headloss and recalculate the roughness, the recalculated roughness will be
70% less; i.e. ε = 93.74 mm instead of ε = 310.08 mm). Therefore, (Eq.
7.16) can be used only when the measurements are accurate enough.

B. EPAXL Calibrator

EPAXL Calibrator was executed to perform an extended-period


calibration using the demand flows and pressures records for the periods
mentioned previously. For this calibration, we set the roughness bounds
such that:

(εminimum =0.1 mm) ≤ εoptimal ≤ (εmaximum =15.0 mm)


7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 151

εincrement =0.05 mm.


As we did before and in order to estimate the confidence interval for
the pipe roughness we carried out a stochastic analysis as described in
section (7.9.2).

B.1 EPAXL Calibrator results

In this calibration, the time needed to find a solution is quite long


because the size of the problem is relatively large as there are 7 nodes and
504 pressure measurements at each node, and 7 pipes and 300 possible
values for the roughness for each pipe. It took about 8 hours to solve the
calibration problem of “Toulon Est”. The pipes roughness values computed
by EPAXL and their confidence intervals are listed in Table 7.17:

Table 7.17 : Results for EPAXL Calibrator - 2005


ε_EPAXL_05
Pipe
(mm)
Pipe A-B 7.10 ± 0.38
Pipe B-C 11.15 ± 0.47
Pipe C-E 9.15 ± 0.47
Pipe E-F 6.80 ± 0.39
Pipe F-G 4.40 ± 0.21
Pipe G-H 2.60 ± 0.12
Pipe H-K 2.75 ± 0.12

B.2 Comparison between linear regression and EPAXL


Calibrator results

The simulated pressures computed by using the roughness obtained


from linear regression (ε_Reg_05) and the simulated pressures computed
by using roughness obtained by EPAXL (ε_EPAXL_05) were compared to
the measured pressures for each point and they are plotted on the figures
below:
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 152

Figure 7.18 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point B


162

161

160
Pressure (m)

159

158

157

156

155 P_Measured
P_EPAXL
154 P_Regression
153

152
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005

Figure 7.19 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point C


200

198

196
Pressure (m)

194

192

190

188
P_Measured
P_EPAXL
186
P_Regression
184

182
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 153

Figure 7.20 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point E


250

245
Pressure (m)

240

235

230
P_Measured
P_EPAXL
225 P_Regression

220
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005

Figure 7.21 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point F

270

265

260

255
Pressure (m)

250

245

240

235 P_Measured
P_EPAXL
230 P_Regression
225

220
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 154

Figure 7.22 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point G

290

280

270
Pressure (m)

260

250

P_Measured
240
P_EPAXL
P_Regression
230

220
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005

Figure 7.23 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point H

300

290

280
Pressure (m)

270

260

250
P_Measured
240 P_EPAXL
P_Regression
230

220
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 155

Figure 7.24 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point K


300

290

280

270
Pressure (m)

260

250

240

230 P_Measured
P_EPAXL
220 P_Regression
210

200
April 2005 August 2005 October 2005

It can be seen that the simulated pressures are, generally speaking,


higher than the measured pressures. However, the simulated pressures of
EPAXL (Ps-EPAXL) are a bit closer to the measured one than those of linear
regression (Ps-Reg) and since this is not seen clearly on the figures hereabove
we calculate delta (Δ) as:
P m - Ps_EPAXL
Δ = ( Eq . 7 . 17 )
P m - Ps_Reg

If delta is less than 1.0 this means that the Ps-EPAXL is the closest to
the Pm and if delta is greater than 1.0 this means that the Ps-Reg is closest to
the Pm. As shown on Figure 7.25, the delta’s values are less than 1.0 in
most cases.

Figure 7.25 : Calculated delta’s values (Δ)


3

2
Δ

0
Point B Point C Point E Point F Point G Point H Point K
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 156

7.9 General discussion and conclusion

From this calibration work we obtained four values for roughness for
each pipe, which are:
- The average roughness obtained by SCP’s Maintenance Division
from the two field tests for year 2006 (έ_SCP in Table 7.9).
- The average roughness obtained by EPAXL Calibrator of the two
field tests for year 2006 (έ_EPAXL in Table 7.10)
- The roughness obtained from linear regression for year 2005
(ε_Reg_05 in Table 7.15)
- The roughness obtained by EPAXL for year 2005 (ε_EPAXL_05
in Table 7.17)

These values are summarized in Table 7.18 and Figure 7.26:

Table 7.18 : Summary of ε_values for calibration 2005 and 2006

Pipe ε_Reg_05 ε_EPAXL_05 έ_SCP_06 έ_EPAXL_06

Pipe A-B 8.44 7.10 3.00 3.03


Pipe B-C 4.94 11.15 3.00 3.03
Pipe C-E 4.76 9.15 5.80 6.18
Pipe E-F 3.60 6.80 2.85 2.78
Pipe F-G 3.24 4.40 2.80 2.45
Pipe G-H 2.32 2.60 1.70 1.55
Pipe H-K 3.17 2.75 2.55 2.45
Pipe K-T # # 1.85 1.70

Figure 7.26 : Comparison between the ε_values


12
ε_Reg._05 ε_EPAXL_05
έ_SCP_06 έ_EPAXL_06
10

8
Roughness (mm)

0
Pipe A-B Pipe B-C Pipe C-E Pipe E-F Pipe F-G Pipe G-H Pipe H-K Pipe K-T
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 157

One may ask “what are the true pipes roughness?”. In the single-
period calibration (2006) we compute the roughness that satisfy only two
field measurements while in the extended-period (2005) we compute the
roughness that satisfy a wide-rang operation conditions, but the flows
measurements were more accurate in the single-period calibration since the
measurements were made under controlled conditions, and in the extended-
period calibration the flows measurements are less accurate because of the
unaccounted-for water which is around 8%. However, the maximum and
minimum of these four values for roughness could give an idea about the
range within which the true roughness falls.
One must be careful when using pipe headloss hf to estimate the pipe
roughness. The problem of hf is that the hf is computed such that:

hf =(Pup + Zup) – (Pdown + Zdown) (Eq. 7.18)

Where Pup and Zup are the pressure and the elevation of the upstream
node, and Pdown and Zdown are the pressure and the elevation of the
downstream node. If we assume that the elevations are exact but the error
in the pressure measuring device is about ±0.5 m and the headloss are
around 1.65 m (pipe of L =1,000 m, D =1.0 m, ε =1.0 mm, Q =1.0 m3). If
the errors committed in measuring Pup and Pdown have, luckily, the same
magnitude and sign then the hf will be correct. However, if the error in
measuring Pup is equal to +0.25 m and the error in measuring Pdown is equal
to -0.25 m then the error in hf will be +0.50 m and this is about 30% of the
computed parameter hf.
Also, this calibration work shows how difficult is the calibration
process of the hydraulic model for water pipe network; even for a simple
network like “Toulon Est” network, where there is no loops and the state of
the system is well-identified (i.e. nodes demands and pressures and pipes
flows are known in space and in time) and there is only seven parameters to
be calibrated (roughness). However, when the system contains many pipes
and loops and not only the pipes roughness are the calibration parameters
but the nodes demand factors are to be calibrated too, and if there is a
limited number of pressure and flow measurements in the system, then the
calibration process is a real challenge to the modeler. Regarding EPAXL
Calibrator, the algorithm presented here needs to be improved to be faster
and more robust.
Finally, the calibration process understands some choices and
parameters that have an effect on this process, such as:

- Headloss equation: Darcy-Weisbach or Hazen –Williams


equation?
7. CHAPTER 7 : Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model 158

- Pipe diameter: Nominal pipe diameter or inner pipe diameter?


- Water kinematic viscosity: 1.0 x 10-6 m2/s or 1.3 x 10-6 m2/s?
- Acceleration of gravity: 9.82 m/s2 or 10.0 m/s2?
- Pressure: 1.0 bar is 10.0 m or 10.2 m?
- Friction factor: implicit or explicit Colebrook-White formula?
- Extended or single period calibration?
- Accuracy of the measuring devices?
- Node’s elevation: is the datum the bottom, the center line or the
top of the pipe?
- Minor and fitting headloss?
- Calibration approach to be implemented?
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 159

CHAPTER 8
8. Demand Prediction

8.1 Introduction

The term “Prediction” or “Forecasting” is the estimation of the value


of a variable or set of variables at some future point in time. A forecasting
exercise is usually carried out in order to provide an aide to decision-
making and planning the future. Typically all such exercises work on the
premise that “if we can predict what the future will be like we can modify
our behavior now to be in a better position, than we otherwise would have
been when the future arrives”. However, forecasting techniques are applied
in some of life’s domain, for example inventory control and production
planning where forecasting the demand for a product enables to control the
stock of raw materials and plan the production schedule, investment policy
for forecasting financial information such as interest rates, exchange rates
and the price of gold, economic policy for forecasting economic
information such as the growth in economy, unemployment and the
inflation rate, and water demand forecasting for effective water resources
planning and management. All these forecasting exercises are vital both to
government and business in planning the future (Opitz, 1998), (Baumann,
1998), and (Weigend, 1994).
One way of classifying forecasting problems is to consider the
timescale involved in the forecast, in other word, how far forward into the
future we are trying to forecast. Short, medium and long-term are usual
categories but the actual meaning of each will vary according to the
situation that is being studied, for example in forecasting energy demand in
order to construct power station 5 to 10 years would be short-term and 50
years would be long-term, while in forecasting costumer water demand in
many water distribution systems up to one month would be short-term and
over a couple of years long-term (Ani, 2003). The terms “Forecasting” and
“Prediction” will be used alternatively throughout this chapter.

8.2 Water demand prediction

Prediction of consumer demands is a pre-requisite for water


8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 160

resources demands management and planning, and also for water optimal
control of water supply and distribution systems. The main objectives of
demand forecasting are management and conservation of natural water
resources, and optimization of water supply (Guhl, 1999).
A water utility’s primary purpose is to provide water to its
customers, but it must also plan for its customers’ future water needs. A
critical aspect of this planning is predicting short-term, medium-term, and
long-term water demands and optimizing the water supply system to meet
these demands and also managing water demands and supplies in the
future. Moreover, understanding the magnitude and location of future water
demands, and any potential changes from existing water demands, allows
to develop recommendations that will meet or manage demands for water
quantity and quality into the future (Ani, 2003). If changes in water
demand can be predicted, the inflow can be changed in advance and the
operation becomes more effective and efficient. For this reason,
anticipation is often used to improve the control response.
Making more efficient use of existing water resources through
demand management is an economical and environmentally responsible
way to meet growing demand for water. Water conservation is an important
component of managing water demands and supplies in the future.
Agricultural practices could achieve conservation at an on-farm level e.g.,
by reduction of applied water, and at a district level e.g., through such
methods as canal lining, spill recovery, and automation (AWWA, 2001).
Water demand forecasts are used in many areas of utility planning.
These demand forecasts can contribute to identifying appropriate
management alternatives in balancing supply and demand. From small
utility models to long-term interstate resource management, reliable
forecasts are critical components of water planning and policy. To be
reliable, water demand forecasts must include social, economic, and
environmental factors. The use of such forecasts has become standard,
particularly when considering new water resource supplies. Forecasting
water demand is inherently challenging, as the factors that most directly
affect water demand are difficult to predict. Viewed in its simplest form,
future water demands are a function of a region’s population, the growth or
decline of its industrial activity, technological changes, code changes,
water pricing, and changes in outdoor water use associated with weather
and landscaping choices. Unforeseen events significantly impact these
factors (Ani, 2003) and (Jowitt, 1992).
Water demand forecasts are essential to many planning activities
including expansion, expanding existing distribution systems, preparing
contingency plans for droughts, evaluating conservation methods,
performing sensitivity analysis using different assumptions about the
explanatory variables, and assessing utility revenues (Ani, 2003). In
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 161

addition to these applications, forecasts also play an important role in cases


related to climate change where demand forecasts will be critical to
providing information about the future of regional water resource demands
and how they should be distributed.
Today, water demand forecasting has become an essential ingredient
in effective water resources planning and management. Water forecasts,
together with an evaluation of existing supplies, provide valuable triggers
in determining when, or if, new sources of water must be developed.
However, the cost of securing new water supplies has grown dramatically
(Ani, 2003). Forecasts also provide an opportunity to organize important
utility information and demand data. With increasing acclaim and accuracy,
demand forecasting may guide communities toward a more sustainable
future in water resources.
Demand forecasting became necessary as urban populations
dependent on public water supplies grew rapidly. New demands for water
could not always be met. In some cases, water infrastructure required long
lead times to construct, requiring long planning horizons. In other cases,
multiple options for water supply existed and the optimal choice depended
on understanding likely future requirements. In either case demand
forecasting was a means to optimize expansion of the water supply system
(Opitz, 1998).
Other water resource issues that would benefit from water demand
forecasts include water conflicts. For example, California continues to
struggle with limited state resources, a contract battle over the Colorado
River and growing urban populations, demand forecasts are useful to
decisions about water transfers, contract battles, and new techniques in
water conservation in agriculture (Ani, 2003).
Though water demand forecasts are rarely used as the only
determining factor in resource planning, forecasts can prevent utilities from
making needless investments and policy errors in development (AWWA,
2001).
For the purpose of this thesis, we will focus on the water demand
prediction for water distribution systems. In a typical water distribution
system, the source of water might be a lake, river, underground well or
canal. Water is delivered to the distribution system either by gravity or
pumped directly form the source to the distribution system or is pumped to
reservoirs at a number location in the system and then is pumped from the
reservoirs to the distribution system, or to another reservoir. Pressures and
rates of flow throughout the system can be controlled by means of pumps
and valves housed in pumping station. The human operator, who controls
the operations of the distribution system, uses sometimes heuristics or rule
of thumb to optimize the water supply. Documenting the heuristics of the
most experienced expert operators in an expert system is one way to reduce
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 162

operating costs and improve the supply and distribution of water. In order
to develop an expert system for monitoring and control of the water
distribution system, we conduct knowledge acquisition through interviews
with human experts and obtained heuristics for effective water utility
operations. Analysis of these heuristics indicates that it is important that
short-term forecasts of water demand is accurately estimated in order that
the optimization of water supply and effective operation may be derived.
The inaccurate demand estimations by the experience of the experts
possibly results in insufficient operations of the water distribution system,
and the lack of knowledge on water demand prediction translates to a gap
in the knowledge base of the expert system and, thus, manual knowledge
acquisition by itself is inadequate for handling all situations that may arise
in a complex engineering application (An, 1995).
Therefore, resource engineers have developed predictive models that
guide our management of water supply and demand. Predictive models
have become commonplace in all phases of planning, providing resource
managers guidance for the various possible futures (Law, 2000). The goal
is to create a predictive model that appropriately captures the uncertainty of
the future and guides decision making. Forecast models are primarily
dependent on the data available and the model’s intended use. The
complexity of a model hinges on the level of detail in the data required by
the model. However, a more complex model is not always more
appropriate.
Water demand models can have various timesteps: long (annual or
decadal), medium (monthly to annual), or short term (hourly, daily, or
weekly) (AWWA, 1996). For the purposes of this study, we focus on short-
term models, more precisely daily demand prediction.
Water resource engineers commonly use the past as a guide to the
future, planning as if events that have not occurred are unlikely to occur.
However, the future’s uncertainty has required planners to predict water
demand two or three decades into the future. Past, long-term forecasts have
allowed resource managers to be generous in their estimates of water
demand. Long-term water demand modeling is a difficult task; it requires
robust data sets and consideration of uncertain climate, economic, and
cultural conditions. Therefore, water resource managers felt the
professional responsibility to generate demands that were unlikely to be
exceeded. For example, during the post-World War II years, resource
managers and planners typically chose the largest feasible project. While
population and the economy grew, such decisions were justifiable (DeKay,
1985). Now, however, we find population growth more stable and
significant environmental considerations. These changes have caused many
water resource managers to rethink long-term demand planning.
Long-term models are helpful for supply planning, reservoir or urban
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 163

infrastructure changes (i.e., water mains, transfer pipes, etc.), extended


conservation programming or plumbing code changes, and regional urban
planning and development. Unlike short-term models, long-term water
demand models do not contribute to near-term or seasonal operations’
policies regarding drought, instream flows, or climate variability. Instead,
long-term models provide extended foresight for resource managers to
address overall system capacity and management (Bauman., 1998).
Long-term models usually focus on forecasts for 10 or more years
into the future. These models help managers determine long-term
infrastructure or supply changes while considering variables such as
changes in population, price structure, or climate change. While these
forecasts are critical to future management, such forecasts are often highly
uncertain. Of course, the greater the forecast time (i.e., 30 years, 40 years),
the less accurate the forecast or predictive variables tend to be.
Unlike the long-term vision of the decadal model, the medium-term
model typically investigates periods of less than one year. These models
may be used to examine the impacts of climate variability and planned
seasonal operations or financial changes. Medium-term models are often
quite accurate, but may be plagued by unexpected changes in weather or
sociologic factors.
Short-term demand projections help water managers make more
informed water management decisions to balance the needs of water
supply, residential, industrial, and agricultural demands, and instream flows
for fish and other habitat. Short-term demands aid utilities in planning and
managing water demands for near-term events (Jain, 2002). Short-term
forecasting can also help managers make decisions during unexpected
climate conditions, emergencies, or unanticipated financial change. Short-
term forecasting models are typically based upon recent trends and actual
conditions. Short-term method of modeling water demands plays an
important role in seasonal water resource management techniques
(Bauman, 1998) and (Billings, 1996).
The short-term model demonstrates the importance of several
independent variables: temperature, precipitation, and water use. A long-
term model often uses additional household characteristics such as income,
size (number of people), house age, housing density (number per km2),
water price, etc. These variables are more likely to change on an annual or
decadal basis, whereas the short-term model accounts for data variation
within a shorter time-frame. Most long-term water demand models refer to
a handful of standard model variables from the most influential categories:
population, economy, technology, climate, water price, conservation,
housing characteristics, and land-use (AWWA, 1996).
Moreover, in the water demand forecasting one should consider the
methods by which water is distributed to the users. In water distribution
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 164

systems, there are three water delivery methods which can be distinguished
according to the degree of freedom given to the water users in choosing the
flow rate, duration, and frequency of water delivery. Clemmens (1987)
describes various water delivery schedules, with their intended flow rate,
duration, and frequency:

- Proportional water distribution: this method consists in distributing


water in proportion to the size of supplied area or to the water rights.
This method is applied in Pakistan and India and known as
“Warabandi”.

- Rotational schedule water distribution: in this method, the users get


water according to a pre-prepared rotation schedule. It has very little or
no flexibility built into it, and the flow rate, duration, and frequency are
therefore fixed. This method is the simplest for the managers, but the
most rigid for the users, and it is the most popular one in the world.
This method is applied in the Jordan Valley.

- On-demand water distribution: this method allows the users to get


water when they want, and thus the flow, duration, and the frequency
are flexibles. Only the value of the maximum flow is fixed. This
method is particularly applied to the pressurized networks as in Canal
de Provence Company in France.

Generally speaking, the estimation of the future demand will depend


on the method by which water is distributed to the users.

8.3 Prediction methodology and techniques

While predicting the future is impossible, there are wide range


techniques for thinking about what might happened, and how we can
influence that. More than one hundred and thirty principles are used to
summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a
problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods,
evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along
with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength
and sources of evidence (Armstrong, 2001).
Statisticians spend much time on the development of methods for
time-series forecasting. According to Fildes and Makridakis (Fildes, 1995),
few statisticians even address whether their models can be applied to
forecasting (Fildes, 1995). In their survey of the literature, they estimated
that about 21% of the time-series papers addressed forecasting issues.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 165

When they looked at the time-series forecasting papers published in the


Journal of the American Statistical Association from 1971 to 1991, only
about 10% looked at out-of-sample forecast accuracy, and only 11% made
forecasting comparisons against reasonable alternative approaches
(Yurkiewicz, 2004). In general, forecasting methods can be classified into
three different categories:

• Qualitative method
Where there is no formal mathematical model, often because the data
available is not enough to be representative of the future long-term
forecasting. Qualitative methods rely on judgment, intuition, and subjective
evaluation (Ernest, 2001). Among the major techniques within this
category are market research (surveys), Delphi (panel consensus), historical
analogy, and management estimation (guess). Not everyone has estimation
talent; however, some studies have shown that a mathematical technique,
consistently followed, will lead to better results than the “expert
modification” of those forecasts. Nonetheless, many mathematical
techniques need significant quantities of historical data that may not be
available. When substantial data are lacking, subjective management
judgment may be the better alternative.

• Connectionist methods
This method is commonly known as “Artificial Neural Networks
ANN” which is a branch of artificial intelligence. ANNs are types of
information processing system whose architectures are inspired by the
structure of human biological neural systems (Refenes, 1994). They
concentrate on machine learning which was based on the concept of self-
adjustment of internal control parameters. The ANN environment consists
of five primary components; learning domain, neural nets, learning
strategies, learning process, and analysis process. The data used in the
model to train neural networks are historical recorded data. Combining the
learning capabilities of neural networks and time series techniques and
using wavelet decomposition technique to explore more details of the time
series signals. The wavelet transform has its roots in the Fourier transform.
Typical neural network models are closely related to statistical models.
However, high noise, high non-stationarity time series prediction is
fundamentally difficult for these models. A wide range of interesting
applications of ANNs has been investigated; it can be applied in pattern
recognition, to diagnosing problems, in decision making and optimization,
for design and planning, for management, and can be also applied for
prediction or forecasting. The behavior of complex systems has been a
broad application domain for neural networks. In particular, applications
such as electric load forecasting, economic forecasting, and forecasting
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 166

natural and physical phenomena have been widely studied (Grino, 1992),
(Metaxiotis, 2003), (Dillon, 1991), and (Refenes, 1994).

• Time series methods


methods of this type are concerned with a variable that changes with
time and which can be said to depend only upon the current time and
previous values that it took ( i.e. independent on any other variables or
external factors). Time series methods are especially good for short-time
forecasting where the past behavior of a particular variable is a good
indicator of its future behavior at least in the short-term (Franmlin, 1986)
and (Weigend, 1994). The typical example here is short-term demand
forecasting for a water distribution system. The time series method uses
different technique to forecast the future variable such as: moving average,
exponential smoothing, and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average
(Box-Jenkins approach).

In this thesis we will consider only the time series method for
forecasting the water demand for the system being studied here.

8.4 Time series methods

The term “univariate time series” refers to a time series that consists
of single (scalar) observations recorded sequentially over equal time
increments (Brockwell, 1991 and 1996). Time series forecasting methods
are widely used in business situations where forecasts of a year or less are
required. Classically, researchers approach the problem of modeling a time
series by identifying four kinds of components. These four components are
known as Seasonality, Trend, Cycling, and Residual (Abu-Mostafa, 1996).

ƒ The Seasonal variation in a time series is the repetitive pattern


observed over some time horizon (day, month, year, etc).
ƒ The Trend is the increase or decrease in the series over a long period
of time. For this reason is also known as the long-term trend.
ƒ The Cyclical variation is the wavelike up and down fluctuations about
the trend, and it is not tied to the seasonal variation.
ƒ Lastly, the Residual effect is what remains, having removed the
Trend, Cycling and Seasonal components of a time series. It
represents the random error effect of a time series, caused by events as
widespread wars, hurricanes, strikes and randomness of human
actions.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 167

The foundation of time series analysis is stationarity (Ruey, 2002). A


stationary time series has a constant mean, a constant variance and
autocovariances (or autocorrelations), which depend only upon the
difference in the time index and not on their location in time. A non-
stationary time series is a time series in which one or all of these conditions
are not satisfied. A stationary time series is generated by a process that
remains the same over time. Thus, the mean, variance, and auto-
covariances are all independent of time.

8.4.1 Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation


function (PACF)

The correlation coefficient between two random variables X and Y is


defined as:
T

Cov( X , Y ) ∑ [ (x t − x )( yt − y ) ]
Rx , y = = t =1
( Eq. 8.1 )
Var( X ) ×Var(Y ) T

∑ (x
t =1
t − x)
2
∑( y t − y)
2

Where x and y are the mean of X and Y, respectively, Cov(X,Y) is


the covariance of X and Y, Var(X) and Var(Y) are variance of X and Y,
respectively. It is assumed that the variances exist. This coefficient
measures the strength of linear dependence between X and Y, and it can be
shown that −1 ≤ Rx,y ≤ 1 and Rx,y = Ry,x . The two random variables are
uncorrelated if Rx,y = 0. In addition, if both X and Y are normal random
variables, then Rx,y = 0 if and only if X and Y are independent.

• Autocorrelation function (ACF)

Time series data often exhibits something called autocorrelation.


This means that observations are not independent one from another.
Consider a stationary series rt, when the linear dependence between rt and
its past values rt−i is of interest, the concept of correlation is generalized to
autocorrelation. The correlation coefficient between rt and rt−l is called the
lag-l autocorrelation of rt and is commonly denoted by ρl, which under the
weak stationarity assumption is a function of lag-l only. Specifically, we
define:

Cov ( rt , rt − l ) Cov ( rt , rt − l ) γ l
ρl = = = ( Eq. 8.2 )
Var ( rt ) Var ( rt − l ) Var ( rt ) γ0
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 168

Where the property Var(rt) = Var(rt−l) for a stationary series is used.


From the definition, we have ρ0 = 1, ρl = ρ−l, and −1 ≤ ρl ≤ 1. In addition, a
stationary series rt is not serially correlated if and only if ρl = 0 for all l > 0.
Stationary series applications often require to test that several
autocorrelations of rt are zero.
Autocorrelation plots are a commonly-used tool for checking
randomness in a data set. In addition, autocorrelation plots are used for
model identification in ARIMA Box-Jenkins model.

• Partial autocorrelation function (PACF)

The partial autocorrelation at lag l is the measure of the strength of


correlation between rt and rt-l that is not accounted for by lags 1 through (l -
1). Partial autocorrelation plots are a commonly-used tool for model
identification in ARIMA Box-Jenkins model, specifically in identifying the
order of an autoregressive model.

• White noise

A time series rt is called a white noise if rt is a sequence of


independent and identically distributed random variables with finite mean
and variance. In particular, if rt is normally distributed with mean zero and
variance σ2, the series is called a Gaussian white noise. For a white noise
series, all the ACFs are zero. In practice, if all sample ACFs are close to
zero, then the series is a white noise series.

8.4.2 Simple autoregressive models

The fact that rt has a statistically significant lag-1 autocorrelation


indicates that the lagged rt−1 might be useful in predicting rt. A simple
model that makes use of such predictive power is:
rt = φ 0 + φ 1 rt − 1 + a t ( Eq. 8.3 )
Where a t is assumed to be a white noise series with mean zero and
variance σa², Φ0 and Φ1 are model parameters. This model is in the same
form as the well-known simple linear regression model in which rt is the
dependent variable and rt−1 is the explanatory variable. In the time series
literature, Model (Eq. 8.3) is referred to as a simple autoregressive (AR)
model of order 1 or simply an AR(1) model. A straightforward
generalization of the AR(1) model is the AR(p) model:

rt = φ 0 + φ 1 rt − 1 + ... + φ p rt − p + a t ( Eq. 8.4 )


8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 169

Where p is a non-negative integer and a t is defined in (Eq. 8.3).


The AR(p) model is in the same form as a multiple linear regression model
with lagged values serving as the explanatory variables.

8.4.3 Simple moving-average models

We now turn to another class of simple models that are also useful in
modeling stationary time series. These models are called moving-average
(MA) models. There are several ways to introduce MA models. One
approach is to treat the model as a simple extension of white noise series.
Another approach is to treat the model as an infinite-order AR model with
some parameter constraints. In adopting the second approach, there is no
particular reason, but simplicity, to assume a priori that the order of an AR
model is finite. We may entertain, at least in theory, an AR model with
infinite order as:

rt = φ 0 + φ 1 rt − 1 + φ 2 rt − 2 + ... + a t ( Eq. 8.5 )

However, such an AR model is not realistic because it has infinite


many parameters. One way to make the model practical is to assume that
the coefficients Φis satisfy some constraints so that they are determined by
a finite number of parameters. A special case of this idea is:

rt = φ 0 − θ 1 rt − 1 − θ 12 rt − 2 − θ 13 rt − 3 − ... + a t ( Eq. 8.6 )

Where the coefficients depend on a single parameter θ1 via Φi =− θ 1i


for i ≥ 1. For the model in (Eq. 8.6) to be stationary, θ1 must be less than
one in absolute value; otherwise, θ 1i and the series will explode. Because
| θ1 | < 1, we have θ 1i → 0 as i → ∞. Thus, the contribution of rt−i to rt
decays exponentially as i increases. This is reasonable as the dependence of
a stationary series rt on its lagged value rt−i, if any, should decay over time.
The model in (Eq. 8.6) can be rewritten in a rather compact form. To see
this, rewrite the model as:

rt + θ 1 rt − 1 + θ 12 rt − 2 + ... = φ 0 + a t ( Eq. 8.7 )

The model for rt−1 is then:

rt − 1 + θ 1 rt − 2 + θ 12 rt − 3 + ... = φ 0 + a t − 1 ( Eq. 8.8 )

Multiplying (Eq. 8.8) by θ1 and subtracting the result from (Eq. 8.7),
we obtain:
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 170

rt = φ 0 (1 − θ 1 ) + a t − θ 1 a t − 1 ( Eq. 8.9 )
Which says that except for the constant term rt is a weighted average
of shocks at and at−1. Therefore, the model is called an MA model of order
1 or MA(1) model for short. The general form of an MA(1) model is:

rt = c 0 + a t − θ 1 a t −1
( Eq. 8.10 )

Where c0 is a constant and at is a white noise series. Similarly, an


MA(q) model is:

rt = c 0 + a t − θ 1 a t −1 − ... − θ q a t − q , where q > 0 ( Eq. 8.11 )

8.4.4 Simple Box-Jenkins ARMA model

In some applications, the AR or MA models discussed in the


previous sections become cumbersome because one may need a high-order
model with many parameters to adequately describe the dynamic structure
of the data. To overcome this difficulty, the autoregressive moving-average
(ARMA) models are introduced; known as Box-Jenkins ARMA model
(Box, 1994) and (Ruey, 2002). A general ARMA(p, q) model is in the
form:
p q
rt = φ 0 + ∑i =1
φ i rt − i + a t − ∑
i =1
θ ia t−i
( Eq. 8.12 )

Where at is a white noise series and p and q are non-negative


integers. The AR and MA models are special cases of the ARMA(p, q)
model.

• Non-stationary time series

Many real time series do not satisfy the stationarity conditions stated
earlier for which ARMA models have been derived. Then these times
series are called non-stationary and should be re-expressed such that they
become stationary with respect to the variance and the mean. One of the
methodologies that can be used to make a non-stationary time series
stationary is to apply a difference operator to a data series.
However, differencing can sometimes reduce a non-stationary series
to stationarity. Differencing once or twice is often enough. The Box-
Jenkins model assumes that the time series is stationary. Box and Jenkins
recommend differencing non-stationary series one or more times to achieve
stationarity. Doing so produces an ARIMA model, with the “I” standing for
“Integrated”.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 171

8.4.5 ARIMA model

ARIMA processes have been studied extensively and are a major


part of time series analysis. They were popularized by George Box and
Gwilym Jenkins in the early 1970s (Box, 1994). The acronym ARIMA
stands for Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average. In fact, the easiest
way to think of ARIMA models is as fine-tuned versions of random walk
and random-trend models. Lags of the differenced series appearing in the
forecasting equation are called auto-regressive terms, lags of the forecast
errors are called moving average terms, and a time series which needs to be
differenced to be made stationary is said to be an integrated version of a
stationary series. Random-walk and random-trend models, autoregressive
models, and exponential smoothing models (i.e., exponential weighted
moving averages) are all special cases of ARIMA models. A non-seasonal
ARIMA model is classified as an ARIMA(p,d,q) model where:

- p is the number of non-seasonal autoregressive terms,


- d is the number of non-seasonal differences, and
- q is the number of non-seasonal moving average terms.

¾ Seasonality
Some time series exhibits certain cyclical or periodic behavior. Such
a time series is called a seasonal time series. If seasonality is present, it
must be incorporated into the time series model. Box-Jenkins models can
be extended to include seasonal autoregressive and seasonal moving
average terms. Although this complicates the notation and mathematics of
the model, the underlying concepts for seasonal autoregressive and
seasonal moving average terms are similar to the non-seasonal
autoregressive and moving average terms. The most general ARIMA Box-
Jenkins model includes difference operators, autoregressive terms, moving
average terms, seasonal difference operators, seasonal autoregressive
terms, and seasonal moving average terms.
A seasonal ARIMA model is classified as an
ARIMA(p,d,q)x(P,D,Q)S model, where P = number of seasonal
autoregressive terms (SAR), D = number of seasonal differences, Q =
number of seasonal moving average terms (SMA), S = number of seasons.

8.4.6 Box-Jenkins Model Identification

1) Identifying the order of differencing (d)

The first and most important step in fitting an ARIMA model is the
determination if the series is stationary and if there is any significant
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 172

seasonality, and then to determine the order of differencing needed to


stationarize the series. Stationarity and seasonality can also be detected
from an autocorrelation plot. Specifically, non-stationarity is often
indicated by an autocorrelation plot with very slow decay. Normally, the
correct amount of differencing is the lowest order of differencing that
yields a time series which fluctuates around a well-defined mean value and
whose autocorrelation function (ACF) plot decays fairly rapidly to zero,
either from above or below. Integrated component (d) is usually 0, 1, or 2.
The integrated component is simply 0 if the raw data are stationary to begin
with, 1 if there is a linear trend, or 2 if there is a quadratic trend. Higher
positive values are possible but very rarely useful.

2) Identifying the numbers of AR (p) and MA (q) terms

Once stationarity and seasonality have been addressed and a time


series has been stationarized by differencing, the next step is to determine
whether AR or MA terms are needed to correct any autocorrelation that
remains in the differenced series. The primary tools for doing this are the
autocorrelation plot and the partial autocorrelation plot.

- AR and MA signatures: If the PACF displays a sharp cutoff while


the ACF decays more slowly (i.e., has significant spikes at higher lags), we
say that the stationarized series displays an “AR signature”, meaning that
the autocorrelation pattern can be explained more easily by adding AR
terms than by adding MA terms.
In principle, any autocorrelation pattern can be removed from a
stationarized series by adding enough autoregressive terms (lags of the
stationarized series) to the forecasting equation, and the PACF tells you
how many such terms are likely be needed. However, this is not always the
simplest way to explain a given pattern of autocorrelation: sometimes it is
more efficient to add MA terms (lags of the forecast errors) instead. The
autocorrelation function (ACF) plays the same role for MA terms that the
PACF plays for AR terms, that is, the ACF tells you how many MA terms
are likely to be needed to remove the remaining autocorrelation from the
differenced series. If the autocorrelation is significant at lag l but not at any
higher lags; i.e. if the ACF “cuts off” at lag l this indicates that exactly k
MA terms should be used in the forecasting equation. In the latter case, we
say that the stationarized series displays an “MA signature” meaning that
the autocorrelation pattern can be explained more easily by adding MA
terms than by adding AR terms.
In practice, the sample autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation
functions are random variables and will not give the same picture as the
theoretical functions. This makes the model identification more difficult. In
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 173

particular, mixed models can be particularly difficult to identify. Although


experience is helpful, developing good models using these sample plots can
involve much trial and error. For this reason, in recent years information-
based criteria such as FPE (Final Prediction Error) and AIC (Aikake
Information Criterion) and others have been preferred and used. These
techniques can help automate the model identification process. These
techniques require computer software to use (Ruey, 2002).

8.4.7 Smoothing methods

A time series is a sequence of observations, which are ordered in


time. Inherent in the collection of data taken over time is some form of
random variation. There exist methods for reducing of canceling the effect
due to random variation. A widely used technique is “smoothing” (Brown,
1962). This technique, when properly applied, reveals more clearly the
underlying trend, seasonal and cyclic components. It is used to filter
random “white noise” from the data, to make the time series smoother or
even to emphasize certain informational components contained in the time
series. There are two distinct groups of smoothing methods: Averaging
Methods and Exponential Smoothing Methods.

• Moving averages (MA)

The best-known forecasting methods is the moving averages or


simply takes a certain number of past periods and add them together; then
divide by the number of periods. Simple Moving Averages is effective and
efficient approach provided the time series is stationary in both mean and
variance (Brockwell, 1991). The following formula is used in finding the
moving average of order n, MA(n) for a period t+1:

rt +1 =
(rt
+ rt -1 + ... + rt - n +1 )
( Eq. 8.13 )
n
Where n is the number of observations used in the calculation. The
forecast for time period t + 1 is the forecast for all future time periods.
However, this forecast is revised only when new data becomes available.

• Weighted Moving Average (WMA)

They are widely used where repeated forecasts required-uses


methods like sum-of-the-digits and trend adjustment methods. A weighted
moving average is:
r t + 1 = w 1 .r t + w 2 .r t -1 + … + w n .r t - n + 1 ( Eq. 8.14 )
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 174

Where the weights (w) are any positive numbers such that:

w1 + w2 + …+wn = 1

• Exponential Smoothing

One of the most successful forecasting methods is the exponential


smoothing (ES) techniques. Moreover, it can be modified efficiently to use
effectively for time series with seasonal patterns. An ES is an averaging
technique that uses unequal weights; however, the weights applied to past
observations decline in an exponential manner (Pollock, 1999).

- Single Exponential Smoothing: It calculates the smoothed series as


a damping coefficient times the actual series plus 1 minus the
damping coefficient times the lagged value of the smoothed series.
The extrapolated smoothed series is a constant, equal to the last
value of the smoothed series during the period when actual data on
the underlying series are available. While the simple moving average
method is a special case of the ES, the ES is more parsimonious in
its data usage. The forecasting formula is the basic equation:
Ft + 1 = α rt + (1 - α ) Ft ( Eq. 8.15 )

Where:
rt = actual value
Ft = forecasted value
α = smoothing factor, which ranges from 0 to 1
t = current time period.

This can be written as:

Ft +1 = Ft + α ε t ( Eq. 8.16 )

Where (εt) is the forecast error (actual - forecast) for period (t). In
other words, the new forecast is the old one plus an adjustment for the error
that occurred in the last forecast. A small (α) provides a detectable and
visible smoothing. While a large (α) provides a fast response to the recent
changes in the time series but provides a smaller amount of smoothing.
An exponential smoothing over an already smoothed time series is
called double-exponential smoothing. In some cases, it might be
necessary to extend it even to a triple-exponential smoothing, and the
resulting set of equations is called the “Holt-Winters (HW)” method after
the names of the inventors. While simple exponential smoothing requires
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 175

stationary condition, the double-exponential smoothing can capture linear


trends, and triple-exponential smoothing can handle almost all other time
series.

8.5 Evaluating the accuracy of forecasting

All forecasting models have either an implicit or explicit error


structure, where error is defined as the difference between the model
prediction and the “true” value. Using any method for forecasting one must
use a performance measure to assess the quality of the method. The most
straightforward way of evaluating the accuracy of forecasts is to plot the
observed values and the one-step-ahead forecasts in identifying the residual
behavior over time. The widely used statistical measures of error that can
help us to identify a method or the optimum value of the parameter within a
model are:

a. Mean absolute error (MAE): is the average absolute error value.


Closer this value is to zero the better the forecast is
N

∑ X i - Fi
( Eq. 8.17 )
MAE = i=1
N

b. Mean squared error (MSE): is computed as the sum (or average)


of the squared error values. This is the most commonly used lack-
of-fit indicator in statistical fitting procedures. As compared to the
mean absolute error value, this measure is very sensitive to any
outlier; that is, unique or rare large error values will impact greatly
MSE value.
N

∑ (X i - Fi )2
( Eq. 8.18 )
MSE = i=1

c. Mean Relative Percentage Error (MRPE): The above measures


rely on the error value without considering the magnitude of the
observed values. The MRPE is computed as the average of the
Relative Absolute Percentage Error (RAPE) values:

X t − Ft
RAPE t = 100 × ( Eq. 8.19 )
Xt
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 176

d. Correlation coefficient and R-Squared: Correlation is one of the


most common and most useful statistical techniques which can
show whether and how strongly pairs of variables are related. The
main result of a correlation is called the correlation coefficient (or
“R”). A correlation coefficient is a single number and it ranges
from (-1.0) to (+1.0). The closer R is to +1 or -1, the more closely
the two variables are related. Recall that the R-squared value is the
square of the correlation coefficient.

∑ (X )(F )
N

i − X i − F
R = i=1
( Eq. 8.20 )
∑ (X ) ∑ (F )
N N
2 2
i − X i − F
i=1 i=1

e. Durbin-Watson statistic: quantifies the serial correlation of serial


correlation of the errors in time series analysis and forecasting. D-
W statistic is defined by:
n

∑ (e e i −1 )
2
i −
D - W Statistic = i= 2
n ( Eq. 8.21 )
∑e
i =1
i
2

th
Where ei is the i error. D-W takes values within [0, 4]. For no serial
correlation, a value close to 2 is expected. With positive serial correlation,
adjacent deviates tend to have the same sign; therefore D-W becomes less
than 2; whereas with negative serial correlation, alternating signs of error,
D-W takes values larger than 2. For a forecasting where the value of D-W
is significantly different from 2, the estimates of the variances and
covariances of the model’s parameters can be in error, being either too
large or too small.

8.6 Forecasting softwares

An interesting forecasting software survey appeared in December


2004 showed that the number of tools for planning and forecasting on the
market is very large and their variety confusing (Yurkiewicz, 2004). Look
at the forecasting softwares market, the level of maturity and stability of
products and their features has reached “steady-state”. Programs such as:
SAS, Minitab, NCSS, SCA, ADAPTA DLS-FBS, DrPro++, AGSS,
Demand Solutions, Forecast Pro XE, PROC FORECAST, Futurmaster,
AutoBox, Smart forecast, SPSS Trend, Statgraphics, Matlab, Statistica,
UNISTAT.Minitab, NCSS, SAS and Systat are examples of this group.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 177

Typically, these programs include Box-Jenkins and exponential


smoothing techniques as their core offerings, with different levels of
automation and “ease of use”. Most current versions of these products have
virtually identical forecasting features and capabilities. A newer branch of
this market is the Microsoft Excel Add-Ins. Working on top of the
spreadsheet engine, these products, typically macros, have the statistics and
forecasting capabilities. These softwares have mainly segmented into two
categories. Perhaps the largest is the stand-alone, dedicated statistics
programs that offer forecasting capabilities as one of its features. A second
broad category is stand-alone, dedicated forecast programs and these more
advanced products generally offer many forecasting techniques, coupled
with user features that make choosing the appropriate model, getting
optimal parameters for that model, examining results, etc., easier than those
found in general statistics programs.
The software’s capabilities, ease of use and accuracy are the primary
attributes that users seek. Judging how easy a program is to use is
problematical and open to debate. An automatic program is one in which
the software, after scanning the data and doing statistical tests, tells the user
which methodology is most appropriate to use, or the user manually
chooses an alternative model. In either case, the program then proceeds to
find the optimal parameters for the model, makes forecasts for some user-
specified time horizon, displays plots of the data and the forecasts. Users
without that statistical background may blithely rely on the program’s
recommendation, treating the software as a “black box”. However, good
automatic software should give the user clear information about why and
how it made its recommendation.
Users expect the software to be accurate, but rarely do two programs
using identical data, models and parameters get the same “optimal”
parameters, and this, of course, leads to different forecasts. A general
weakness of many of the products is that documentation is frequently short
on mathematical or technical details.
Sometime series are too short or volatile to use, while others may
have missing values or statistical outliers that could preclude using the
program or causing poor forecasts. Some programs facilitate this process,
automatically giving the time series plot and offering warnings about the
data and suggestions for correction.
The typical user may have his or her data in an Excel spreadsheet,
and while most programs claim that they can read such data and thus are
Excel “compatible”, there are different degrees of compatibility. Others
would not read an older Excel version spreadsheet, but wanted an earlier
version of Excel. Graphics output varies. Some programs offer little user
control of the plot, thus making cosmetic changes difficult.
These and other issues can be easy to resolve. However, resolving
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 178

some other issues may be harder. The infrequent forecast user wants to
know details about the ease of learning and ease of use of the program.
These products are frequently expensive, and the best way to answer these
and other questions would be to download a “trial version” of the product.
These versions are generally either the complete product limited to some
time duration (15 or 30 days) or a certain number of runs, or have some
type of crippling such as limited time series size, or not printing or saving
data.

8.7 Water demand prediction technique at SCP

Water demand prediction at SCP plays an important role in the


“Dynamic Regulation” control of the Canal de Provence. Indeed, on-
demand water supply leads to large fluctuations in the canal flow which are
difficult to forecast. On the contrary to the pressurized pipe networks which
are more adapted to the on-demand water supply, the open canals are
characterized by high response time, and present less flexibility since the
storage volume are small. The “Dynamic Regulation” control is based on
three different actions:

- Anticipatory action: this action is based on the forecast of water


requirements. According to the type of offtakes, flow forecasting can
be either based on pre-established program, or by extrapolation of
the trend for the coming hours using the average trends computed
over the ten previous days. The forecasted flow at check structure
are then calculated by introducing hydraulic delay from the intake to
various offtakes and allow to determine target volumes for the
different reachs of the canal for the next period of time.

- Corrective action: practically the exact balance between the inflow


and outflow in each reach cannot be achieved. This leads in the
variations of volume in each reach which have to be counterbalanced
by another action called corrective action. This corrective action
consists in increasing the inflow in a reach if the actual volume is
under the target volume and decreasing the inflow in the opposite
case.

- Coordination action: the corrective action can be different for two


adjacent reachs and introduces a discrepancy between inflow and
outflow in a reach. Thus, it is recommended to mitigate this
imbalance by carrying forward the corrective action from one reach
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 179

to the other upstream reachs, and this is called “coordination action”


and it allows to better maintain the target volume.

Finally, the flow to be delivered at the upstream of each reach is


given by the sum of the three actions described previously:

Qreach = Q prediction + Qcorrection + Qcoordination ( Eq. 8.22 )

The SCP’s operators at the control center developed their own


demand prediction tools based on their understanding of their own system
being operated. These predictions carried out for a “statistical period (PS)”
in general equals to 24 hours in the future. This period is divided into 96
timesteps because at SCP the average flows over a time interval of 15
minutes are archived and therefore we have 96 flow measurements a day.
The predictions are carried out starting from “dimensionless curve”
updated periodically at preset moments of the day. This curve is rebuilt
repeatedly (around 10 times per day) using the archived flow data for a
“statistical horizon” that is the previous ten days form the actual date
(Viala, 2004).
For each statistical period Psi of the statistical horizon, where i from
1 to 10, and for each timestep j, where j from 1 to 96, we have the historical
flows. The average flow Q i is calculated for each Psi :
96


j =1
Q ij
( Eq. 8.23 )
Q i =
96
Then, for each statistical period Psi, we build the “dimensionless
curve” such that the flows Qij are divided by their average flow Q i to
define the ratio kij where:

Q ij
k ij = ( Eq. 8.24 )
Q i

Now, we create the “trend curve” such that the average of the kij
ratios is calculated for each timestep over the statistical horizon:
10

∑ k ij
, j from 1 to 96 ( Eq. 8.25)
kj = i =1
10
This dimensionless curve gives the tendency of evolution of the flow
over the statistical period, and it will be used to predict the demand flow for
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 180

the coming statistical period. So, we define the “stabilization period Pstab”
equals to 4 timesteps (i.e. 1 hour) preceding the actual date, and the average
flow is then calculated over this period for only the last statistical curve,
and we call this flow as “stabilization flow Qstab”. Also we calculate the
average k of the dimensionless curve over this period. The ration of these
two values is the “adjustment flow Qadjust” which used to adjust the
dimensionless curve:
96 96

∑Q
j = 93
1j ∑k
j = 93
j
Q stab ( Eq. 8.26 )
Q stab = , k stab = → Q adjust =
4 4 k stab
We multiply the dimensionless curve by Qadjust to produce the
prediction curve for the considered period of 24 hours:

Q prediction ( j ) = k j × Q adjust ( Eq. 8.27 )

Figure 8.1 shows the recorded demand versus the predicted one for
“Toulon Est” network from midday 10/03/2006 to midday 13/03/2006.
These recorded demands are measured by electromagnetic flowmeter
installed at the head of the system. The demands characteristics of “Toulon
Est” network have been introduced in Chapter 2 (see section 2.7). The
predicted demands are computed using the above technique.

Figure 8.1 : Example of demand prediction at SCP – Toulon Est – 2006


0.8
Qreal
0.7 Qprediction

0.6

0.5
Q (m3/s)

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
00:00:00
11/03/06

00:00:00
12/03/06

00:00:00
13/03/06

12:00:00
13/03/06
12:00:00
10/03/06

Time
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 181

8.8 Daily demand prediction technique implemented in FINESSE


software

Demand prediction in FINESSE takes as input measured daily


demand profiles and produces as output a predicted daily demand. The
demand predictor has an extensive data requirement but the prediction is
fast. Typically, it takes longer to acquire measurement data that it does to
analyze and predict demand. In On-line use, each day the demand
prediction program is provided with the daily measured demands for the
previous period (typically six weeks) and the demand prediction in turn
produce a prediction for the next 24 hours based on this data. Prediction is
strictly on a day-by-day basis, and it uses vertical prediction, where the
demand at for example 08:00 on a given day is based on the demand at
08:00 on the preceding days. This is contrast to horizontal prediction where
the prediction at 08:00 takes into account the demand at 07:45 if the
prediction timestep is 15minutes for example.
The demand prediction program implemented in FINESSE is called
“Graphical Interactive Demand Analysis and Prediction, GIDAP”
(Coulbeck, 1989) and (SEEE, 1989). GIDAP is basically divided into two
halves; Demand Analysis and Demand Prediction. Prior to prediction the
actual data is first screened and smoothed to produce the equivalent useful
data. The main function of GIDAP is to predict 24-hour or weekly demand
profiles from current and recorded demand data. Demands profiles can
consist of values at intervals as small as 15 minutes. The demand prediction
process consists of several distinct stages concerned with the gradual
refinement of raw data prior to prediction, as follows:

1. Data Screening.
2. Data Smoothing.
3. Data Forecasting.

Special parameters are required at each stage of the prediction


process. Data screening requires suitable screening thresholds; data
smoothing requires the maximum significant harmonic to be known and
data forecasting requires knowing how daily profiles are categorized
(Figure 8.2). These parameters can sometimes be obtained by inspecting
the demand data with a little experience. The analysis techniques employed
in GIDAP are described in detail in the following sections.

1. Data screening

GIDAP assumes that the actual demand data that it uses to predict
contains possible transmission and recording errors. These errors may
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 182

manifest themselves as unusually small or large data values, sudden peaks


or dips in the data or missing values. The screening process applied to this
raw demand data attempts to identify such errors. For effective data
screening four thresholds are defined:
Raw Demand Data

DEMAND PREDICTION DEMAND ANALYSIS


Data Screening
Screening Thresholds

Data Maximum
Smoothing Significant
Harmonic

Data Profile
Forecasting Categories

Predicted Demand Data

Figure 8.2 : GIPAD’s demand prediction stages

1. Lower demand threshold (DDMin) : data values below this threshold


are considered to be too small and are rejected as transmission errors.
2. Upper demand threshold (DDMax) : data values above this threshold
are considered to b too large and are rejected as transmission errors.
3. Maximum first difference (FDMax) : the first difference of a demand
value defines the rate of change of demand represented by that value.
The maximum first difference is defined such that if the first
difference of a value exceeds it, then that value, then that value can be
considered to be the result of an exaggerated rate of change in
demand, and should be rejected. The first difference, FD[n], of the
n’th data value is defined by:

Dt [n ] − Dt [m ]
FD [n ] = ( Eq. 8.28 )
n−m
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 183

4. Maximum second difference threshold (SDMax): the second


difference of a demand value is a measure of the ‘peakiness’ of that
value, or the acceleration of demand represented by that value. The
maximum second difference is defined such that if the second
difference of a value exceeds it, then that value could be the result of a
transmission error. The second difference, SD[n], of the n’th data
value is defined by:
2
SD [n ] = × FD [ p ] − FD [n ] ( Eq. 8.29 )
p −m −2
0 < n, m , p ≤ NT
Where:
Dt[x] = demand value at position x, and day t
n = position of current demand value
m = position of last non-rejected demand value
p = position of next acceptable demand value
NT = number of demand values per day

The screening process takes each value in a demand profile in turn,


and tests it against each of the above threshold values; if the value fails the
test on any one of the thresholds it is rejected and replaced by a predicted
value. If the later value itself fails any of the same tests, then it is replaced
again by a linear interpolation between adjacent non-rejected values. To be
effective, the screening process requires the appropriate setting of each of
the above mentioned thresholds.

2. Data smoothing

Data screening removes relatively coarse transmission errors but


overlooks small random fluctuations in demand present usually as high
frequency low amplitude harmonics. These harmonics make no significant
contribution to the underlying trends in the demand or to the basic shape of
the demand profile, but nevertheless they can affect forecasts unless they
are removed. The smoothing process attempts to remove such
insignificants harmonic components to reveal the underlying demand
information.
Basically, the screened demand profile is composed into its harmonic
components, using a method based upon Fourier Analysis, called the Fast-
Fourier-Transform, FFT. All harmonic components below a certain
frequency are then recombined to form a smoothed version of the original
profile. The assumption is that the components with the higher frequencies
make no significant contribution to the profile and they are due instead to
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 184

random fluctuations in demand. Specifically, a continuous demand pattern


represented by the infinite Fourier series:
∞ ∞
D (t ) = a0 + ∑ a Cos ( 2πjt )
j =1
j + ∑ b Sin ( 2πt )
j =1
j ( Eq. 8.30 )

It can be estimated by:

NH NH
Dˆ (t , NH ) = aˆ 0 + ∑ aˆ j Cos (2πjt ) +
j =1
∑ bˆ Sin (2πjt )
j =1
j
( Eq. 8.31 )

Where:
D(t) = demand value at time t
Dˆ (t , NH ) = estimate of D(t) summing NH harmonic
aj , bj = real harmonic coefficients
â j , b̂ j = estimate of aj , bj
NH = referred to the smoothing threshold, or the Highest
Significant Harmonic.

NH represents that frequency, above which harmonic components


become insignificant. The value selected for NH in the above model affects
the amount of random data allowed to pass through to the prediction phase.
If NH is too low, then significant trend information is lost and prediction
performance will decline. Conversely, if NH is too high, noisy data would
be passed on, also adversely affecting the prediction performance.

3. Data forecasting

Data forecasting is based upon the Triple Exponential Smoothing


technique. This technique maintains estimates of current position, velocity
and acceleration for each data value in a diurnal, which reflect the latest
trends. These estimates are updated in the light of current smoothed data
and then extrapolated forward one time period to produce the desired
forecast. Days of the week can be grouped according to the statistical
similarity of their average diurnal patterns, and therefore a separate set of
estimates is maintained for each group or “category”.
When actual smoothed data becomes available for the period t, Dt ,
the predicted error for that period, E, is found as follows:

E = Pt – Dt ( Eq. 8.32 )

Where Pt is the predicted data or time period t.


8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 185

If the day of the week corresponding to time period t is in profile


category i, then the current position Sit, velocity Vit and acceleration Ait
estimates of category I, are updated in the light of the current prediction
error E, as follows:

Sit = Dt + ( 1 – α )3 * E

Vit = Vit-1 + Ait-1 - 1.5 * ( 2 – α ) * α 2 * E ( Eq. 8.33 )


Ait = Ait-1 – α 3 * E

Where (α) is the smoothing constant.

If the day of the week corresponding to the period t+1 is in category


j, then the forecast for the time period following period t, Pt+1, is found as
follows:

Pt+1 = Sjt + Vjt + 0.5 * Ajt ( Eq. 8.34 )

When actual data for time period t+1 becomes available, the above
process is repeated for the forecast for the time period t+2. The
performance of the exponential smoothing depends largely upon the value
selected for the smoothing constant a. This constant effectively controls the
number of past realizations of the time series that are to influence the
forecast. Small values for a give more weight to previous data values and
therefore results in a slow response of the forecasting model to trends in the
demand data. Large values for a give more weight to more recent values
and cause model to respond more rapidly to change in demand.

¾ GIDAP program configuration

The correct functioning of demand prediction program is based upon


the appropriate setting of the above-mentioned parameters; screening
thresholds, highest significant harmonic and smoothing constant. These
values can be estimated, but they can also be derived automatically by
supplying the demand prediction program with a certain amount of demand
data and instructing it to configure itself. This usually requires about 6
weeks of data, mainly for the profile category analysis, but if the latter are
known then as little as one day’s data is required as long as the data is
good. In FINESSE this configuration is done automatically.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 186

¾ Improved FINESSE demand prediction:

However, this version of the demand prediction is not very robust


and the prediction results were not very good when compared to some
other techniques as it will be demonstrated in the next section.
Accordingly, the DMU improved this demand prediction and now the user
can select between single, double, or triple exponential smoothing, and also
the smoothing constant can be set manually.

8.9 Comparison between short-term water demand forecasting


techniques for water supply networks - case study : “Toulon
Est” network system

One problem with each of these forecasting methods and techniques


is simple: How good is it?. The aim of this comparison mainly is to raise
this question. The approach used here is to employ more than one
prediction method and tool, and then to compare their prediction results
with each other. As a secondary aim of this paper is also to show the effect
of prediction period selected on the results of the prediction. The following
techniques are used for the comparison purpose:

1- Weighted Moving Average (WMA),


2- Single Exponential Smoothing (SES),
3- Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES),
4- SCP Prediction Technique,
5- FINESSE demand predictor.
6- AutoRegression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA),

8.9.1 Approach

A- Demand data source

The source of raw demand data used in this comparison is the


recorded total water demand measured at the head of the “Toulon Est”
distribution network for the years 2002 and 2003. The average demand
over a time interval of 15 minutes is recorded in cubic meters per second,
so we have 96 demand measurements a day.

B- Data pre-treatment

Since the historical demand data contains some missing and noise
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 187

values, the demand data will be screened and smoothed to estimate the
missing one and remove the noise before passing to the prediction process.
The screening process used here is just to eliminate the outlier data or
extrapolate the missing one using moving average without losing any
important information about the original demand profile. The screening is
based on a relatively very coarse criterion that is: starting from a valid
demand, the rate of change in system’s demand over 15 minutes will not
exceed 30% and erroneous values and then the demand values are replaced
by moving average demand for the last three measured demands.

Figure 8.3 : Example of original vs. smoothed demand - Year 2002


1.2 Original demand
Smoothed demand

1.0

0.8
demand (m 3/s)

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
8-juin-02 9-juin-02 10-juin-02 10-juin-02

A spectral analysis has been also done for the measured demand and
the periodogram was drawn0 (Figure 8.4). It was detected that the
maximum period was at about wavelength = 96, where the wavelength
corresponds to the number of measurements, thus the wavelength =96
means that the system’s periodicity is every 96 measurements, in others
words, 24-hour water demand pattern. The spectrum shown in Figure 8.4 is
for year 2002 only.

C- Prediction period

The demand will be predicted for the coming day using certain
number of preceding days, this number refers to the “prediction period”.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 188

For WMA, SES, TES, and FINESSE two prediction periods were selected:
21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). While for the SCP prediction
technique only one prediction period has been selected, that is 10 days. For
ARIMA, the prediction period is from the beginning of the year to the day
before the day for which the demand will be predicted.

Figure 8.4 : Measured demand and the periodogram


2 ,5 0 0
T o u lo n - E s t D e m a n d F o r Y e a r 2 0 0 2

2 ,0 0 0
Demand (m3/s)

1 ,5 0 0

1 ,0 0 0

0 ,5 0 0

0 ,0 0 0

< 29 Aug. 2002 >


< 1 May 2002 >

< 31 May 2002 >

< 30 June 2002 >

< 30 July 2002 >

< 28 Sept. 2002 >

< 29 Oct. 2002 >


P erio d o gram F o r T o ulo n-Est Demand (2002)
3 ,E+0 9

2 ,E+0 9

2 ,E+0 9
Period

W a ve le n g th = 96
1 ,E+0 9

5 ,E+0 8

0 ,E+0 0
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
Wave le ngth

D- Foreword prediction period

The demand will be predicted 24hours foreword for every day for the
period from the 1st of May 2002 to the 31 October 2002, and from the 1st of
May 2003 to the 31 October 2003, which means 184 days for each year.
Because of the daily water demand behavior of this system, the prediction
is vertical prediction, where the demand at for example 08:00 on a given
day is based on the demand at 08:00 on the preceding days. The predicted
demand will be compared to the measured one to evaluate the accuracy of
the prediction using the criterion described soon.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 189

E- Evaluating the accuracy of prediction

We want a measure of how good the prediction is. The predicted


demand will be statically compared to the measured one. The “decisive
factors” used in the comparison between different techniques in order to
decide the “best” forecasting technique are:

- Mean Squared Error (MSE),


- Mean absolute relative error (MARE),
- R-Squared,
- Correlation Coefficient.

F- Prediction tools

The tools that were used to realize the prediction are briefly
described here for each technique:

1- Weighted moving average (WMA)

In order to do the prediction by this technique, a macro was created


in MS Excel since the prediction techniques, such as WMA, are easy to
implement on a spreadsheet. The mathematical equation used by WMA to
predict the demand for the next 24 hours is simple:
T

∑ t ×Dt
PD t +1 = t =1
T
( Eq. 8.35 )

t =1
t

Where:
t = time period (t =1, 2, 3, …, T)
T = prediction period or number of days used to predict demand
Dt = actual demand at time period t
PDt = predicted demand for time period t

For the prediction period (T), two prediction periods were selected:
21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks).

2- Single exponential smoothing (SES)

This technique is also implemented in an Excel spreadsheet. The


mathematical equations used by SES to predict the demand for the next 24
hours are:
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 190

Et = PD t -Dt
S t = D t + (1 - α ) × Ε t ( Eq. 8.36 )
PD t = St

Where:
t = time period (t =1, 2, 3, …, T)
T = prediction period or number of days used to predict demand
N = number of demand measurements per day
Dt = actual demand at time period t
PDt = predicted demand for time period t
Et = actual prediction error at time period t
α = smoothing constant

For the prediction period (T), two prediction periods were selected:
21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). One of the problems regarding
the SES is setting its smoothing constants, alpha, to the appropriate values.
Thus, a several values of alpha were used to predict the demand for the
same 184 days, and then selecting the “optimal” value of alpha that one
results statistically in predictions close to the measured demands.
The following values of alpha were used : α = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5,
0.6, 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9. It was found that alpha optimal for year 2002 was α =
0.7, while for year 2003 alpha optimal was α = 0.5 and 0.6 (see Table 2.1).
As a compromise, alpha was selected to be α = 0.6 for both years.

Table 8.1 : Alpha setting for SES


SES 2002 SES 2003
Alpha R-Squared MSE R-Squared MSE
10-1 10-2 10-1 10-2
0.1 9.660 4.780 9.586 4.435
0.2 9.752 3.534 9.672 3.592
0.3 9.777 3.066 9.704 3.279
0.4 9.791 2.825 9.718 3.137
0.5 9.798 2.693 9.976 2.569
0.6 9.820 2.356 9.976 2.581
0.7 9.822 2.400 9.719 3.164
0.8 9.800 2.548 9.709 3.282
0.9 9.795 2.617 9.693 3.457

3- Triple exponential smoothing (TES)

The same as the WMA and SES, this technique is implemented in an


Excel spreadsheet. The mathematical equations used by TES to predict the
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 191

demand for the next 24 hours are:


E t = PD t - D t
S t = D t + (1 - α ) 3 × E t
V t = V t -1 + A t -1 1.5 × ( 2 - α ) × α 2 × E t ( Eq. 8.37 )
A t = A t -1 − α 3 × E t
PD t +1 = S t + V t + 0 .5 × A t

Where:
t = time period (t =1, 2, 3,… T)
T = prediction period or number of days used to predict demand
N = number of demand measurements per day
Dt = actual demand at time period t
PDt = predicted demand for time period t
Et = actual prediction error at time period t
α = smoothing constant

For the prediction period (T), two prediction periods were selected:
21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). Again, we should set the
smoothing constant, alpha, to the appropriate values. The following values
of alpha were used : α = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9. It was
found that alpha optimal for year 2002 was α = 0.2, and for year 2003 alpha
optimal was α = 0.2 (see Table 8.2). Thus, alpha was selected to be α = 0.2
for both years.

Table 8.2 : Alpha setting for TES


TEST 2002 TEST 2003
Alpha R-Squared MSE R-Squared MSE
10-1 10-2 10-1 10-2
0.1 9.734 3.610 9.645 3.923
0.2 9.767 3.076 9.706 3.228
0.3 9.752 3.373 9.616 4.263
0.4 9.709 3.743 9.552 5.032
0.5 9.655 4.701 9.455 6.196
0.6 9.573 5.765 9.310 7.967
0.7 9.450 7.454 9.093 10.708
0.8 9.263 9.055 8.769 15.039
0.9 8.979 9.502 8.288 22.075

4- SCP prediction technique

This is also simple technique and was implemented in MS Excel


spreadsheet. We tried here to mimic the same procedure done at the control
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 192

room of SCP as describe in section 8.7 of this chapter, where the prediction
period is 10 days and the prediction is updated about four times a day, i.e.
every 6 hours. However, we will use the same prediction period (10 days),
the prediction will be updated every 6 hours (4 times /day), and then every
24 hours (1 times/day) to compare between the two updating frequencies.

5- FINESSE predictor module

The only thing we have to do here is to prepare the demand data in


appropriate format accepted by FINESSE predictor, where the data must be
in a text (tab delimited) format. Then the importation of data inside
FINESSE should be done manually for each day. For the prediction period,
two prediction periods were selected, the same as for SES and TES: 21days
(3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). Both the old and the new versions of the
FINESSE demand prediction will be tested. The new one will be used to
predict the demand twice by using single exponential smoothing level and
smoothing constant = 0.6, and then by using triple exponential smoothing
level and smoothing constant = 0.2 for the same prediction periods: 21days
(3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks).

6- Autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA)

For ARIMA, because this technique is more complex than the above
techniques, we used statistical analysis software known as “NCSS”
(Hintze, 2005), which provides the user with time-series analysis tools;
including ARIMA model.
The first step is to determine the order of differencing needed to
stationarize the series. From the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation
functions, any non-stationarity in the series can be identified. The ACF is
shown in Figure 8.5 for demand series. From the ACFs for both years 2002
and 2003, it is clear that the ACFs decay very slowly, indicating non-
stationary series, and there are peaks every 96 time lags. These peaks imply
a seasonal effect of season length = 96, which correspond to a daily pattern
since the data is measured every 15 minutes (this already shown in the
periodogram in Figure 8.4). It is likely that the model will need to
incorporate a first order consecutive difference and a 96 seasonal difference
term. Therefore, the ACF and PACF of the model ARIMA (0,1,0)(0,1,0)96
were examined. These are shown in Figure 8.6 and Figure 8.7. The series
are now stationarized after differencing. In light of these figures, a model
consisting of a non-seasonal autoregressive parameter, two non-seasonal
moving average parameters, and a seasonal moving average parameter was
considered as an appropriate model. The ARIMA model is written as
ARIMA (1,1,2)(0,1,1)96, and the parameter estimation there significance on
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 193

the model were done by the NCSS software as shown in Table 8.3.
However, further terms were added to the model but were found to be
unnecessary. The next step was to examine the residual of the time series,
and this done by the examination of the ACF of the residual. The ACF is
shown in Figure 8.8 for both years 2002 and 2003. The figure shows that
the series is white noise.

Figure 8.5 : Autocorrelation function of demand series


8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 194

Figure 8.6 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2002


8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 195

Figure 8.7 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2003


8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 196

Figure 8.8 : Autocorrelation function of residual


8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 197

Table 8.3 : Parameter estimation

Model Estimation Section for Year 2002:


Model: Regular(1,1,2), Seasonal(0,1,1), Seasons = 96

Parameter Parameter Standard T-Value Prob


Name Estimate Error Level
AR(1) 0.529 1.162E-02 45.503 0.000
MA(1) 0.283 1.178E-02 23.999 0.000
MA(2) -0.231 6.310E-03 -36.659 0.000
SMA(1) 0.974 1.021E-03 954.085 0.000

Model Estimation Section for Year 2003:


Model: Regular(1,1,2), Seasonal(0,1,1), Seasons = 96

Parameter Parameter Standard T-Value Prob


Name Estimate Error Level
AR(1) 0.381 1.426E-02 26.735 0.000
MA(1) 0.077 1.407E-02 5.476 0.000
MA(2) -0.235 6.674E-03 -35.205 0.000
SMA(1) 0.959 1.382E-03 693.853 0.000

8.9.2 Comparison of the prediction results

The measured and predicted demands for these techniques are


compared to each others using the NCSS software. The results of this
comparison (R-Squared, correlation, MSE, and MARE) are summarized in
Table 8.4 and Table 8.5 and Figure 8.9 and Figure 8.10 shown in the next
pages. The techniques are ranked in the tables.
For year 2002, the SCP technique is statistically in the first rank and
the best one that predict the demand for our system because it gives the
maximum R-Squared and correlation, and the minimum MSE and MARE,
and the prediction was better with 2-hour updating frequency (SCP-2h)
than with 24-hour updating frequency (SCP-24h). The new FINESSE
demand predictor is in the second rank. The ARIMA technique comes in
the third rank, then SES, TES, WMA, and the old FINESSE demand
predictor in the last rank that what shows us Table 8.4 and Figure 8.9.
For year 2003, the SCP technique is still statistically in the first rank,
and the prediction was better with 2-hour updating frequency (SCP-2h)
than with 24-hour updating frequency (SCP-24h). ARIMA technique
comes in the second rank, then SES which upgraded to the third rank.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 198

While the new FINESSE demand predictor downgraded to the fourth rank,
then TES, WMA, and the old FINESSE demand predictor is the last one
that what shows us Table 8.5and Figure 8.10.
For all cases, it is clear that the single exponential smoothing
forecasts the demand better than the triple exponential smoothing.
Moreover, the effect of the 21-day and 42-day prediction periods was
almost negligible for SES, TES and FINESSE, and this applies to both
years 2002 and 2003. Generally, the 21-day prediction period is fairly
better, except for old FINESSE predictor for the year 2003.

‰ In parallel, the same comparison has been made between the


different methods but for only one day arbitrarily selected during the peak
period demand of the year 2003 (July 31, 2003). As shown in Figure 8.11
and Table 8.6, one note that the SCP technique, with 2-hour updating
frequency (SCP-2h), is still statistically in the first rank and the best one
that predict the demand for our system because it gives the maximum R-
Squared and correlation, and the minimum MSE and MARE.
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 199

Figure 8.9 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2002

R-Squared Correlation
2002 2002
1.00 1.00

0.90

Correlation
R-squared

0.90
0.80
0.80
0.70

0.60 0.70

ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42

TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24

SES-21
SES-42

WMA-21

WMA-42

SCP-24

SES-21
SES-42

WMA-21

WMA-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02

FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old

FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
SCP-2h

SCP-2h
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
2002 2002
0.07 0.25
0.06
0.05 0.20

MARE
0.04
MSE

0.15
0.03
0.02 0.10
0.01
0.00 0.05
ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42

TES-21
TES-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
SCP-24

SES-21
SES-42

WMA-21

WMA-42

FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
SCP-24

SES-21
SES-42

WMA-21

WMA-42
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old

FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
SCP-2h

SCP-2h
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06

Table 8.4 : Results - 2002


Rank Method R-Squared Correlation MSE MARE
1 SCP-2h 0.9641 0.9819 0.0059 0.0729

2 FIN21_New_S06 0.9575 0.9785 0.0070 0.0758

3 FIN42_New_S06 0.9466 0.9729 0.0088 0.0838

4 FIN21_New_T02 0.9407 0.9699 0.0102 0.0942

5 FIN42_New_T02 0.9295 0.9641 0.0122 0.1004

6 SCP-24 0.8888 0.9428 0.0185 0.1253

7 ARIMA 0.8828 0.9396 0.0206 0.1312

8 SES-21 0.8566 0.9255 0.0236 0.1400

9 SES-42 0.8566 0.9255 0.0236 0.1400

10 TES-21 0.8272 0.9095 0.0308 0.1584

11 TES-42 0.8256 0.9086 0.0310 0.1591

12 WMA-21 0.7240 0.8509 0.0458 0.2004

13 FIN21_Old 0.6832 0.8266 0.0532 0.2176

14 FIN42_Old 0.6827 0.8262 0.0533 0.2219

15 WMA-42 0.6265 0.7915 0.0633 0.2470


8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 200

Figure 8.10 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2003


R-Squared Correlation
2003 2003
1.00 1.00
0.90
0.90

Correlation
R-squared

0.80
0.70 0.80
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.40 0.60
ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42

TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24

SES-21
SES-42

FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
WMA-21

WMA-42

SCP-24

SES-21
SES-42

FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
WMA-21

WMA-42
SCP-2h

FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old

SCP-2h

FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
2003 2003
0.06 0.25
0.23
0.05 0.21
0.04 0.19

MARE
0.17
MSE

0.03 0.15
0.13
0.02 0.11
0.01 0.09
0.07
0.00 0.05
ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42

TES-21
TES-42
SCP-24

SES-21
SES-42

FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02

SCP-24

SES-21

FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
WMA-21

WMA-42

SES-42

WMA-21

WMA-42
SCP-2h

FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old

SCP-2h

FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
Table 8.5 : Results - 2003
Rank Method R-Squared Correlation MSE MARE
1 SCP-2h 0.9369 0.9679 0.0063 0.0609

2 SCP-24 0.7733 0.8794 0.0237 0.1249

3 ARIMA 0.7679 0.8763 0.0245 0.1264

4 SES-21 0.7435 0.8623 0.0261 0.1404

5 SES-42 0.7435 0.8623 0.0261 0.1404

6 FIN21_New_S06 0.7288 0.8537 0.0281 0.1447

7 FIN42_New_S06 0.7089 0.8420 0.0312 0.1512

8 TES-21 0.7074 0.8411 0.0324 0.1522

9 TES-42 0.7026 0.8382 0.0325 0.1523

10 FIN21_New_T02 0.7008 0.8372 0.0334 0.1544

11 FIN42_New_T02 0.6658 0.8160 0.0385 0.1649

12 WMA-21 0.5771 0.7596 0.0429 0.1928

13 FIN42_Old 0.5327 0.7298 0.0498 0.2115

14 FIN21_Old 0.5040 0.7099 0.0536 0.2177

15 WMA-42 0.4623 0.6799 0.0577 0.2309


8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 201

Figure 8.11 : Prediction methods comparison – July 31, 2003

R-Squared Correlation
July 31, 2003 July 31, 2003
1.0 1.0
0.9
0.9

Correlation
R-squared

0.8
0.7 0.8
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.4 0.6
ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-21
TES-42

TES-21
TES-42
WMA-42
WMA-21
SCP-24

FIN42_New_T02
SES-21
SES-42
FIN21_New_T02

WMA-42
WMA-21
SCP-24

FIN42_New_T02
SES-21
SES-42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old

FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
SCP-2h

SCP-2h
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06

FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
July 31, 2003 July 31, 2003
0.020 0.10
0.016 0.08
0.012 0.06

MARE
MSE

0.008 0.04
0.004 0.02
0.000 0.00
ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-42
TES-21

TES-42
TES-21
SCP-24
SES-42
SES-21
WMA-21

FIN42_New_T02

FIN21_New_T02

WMA-42

SCP-24
SES-42
SES-21
WMA-21

FIN42_New_T02

FIN21_New_T02

WMA-42
SCP-2h

FIN21_Old

FIN42_Old

SCP-2h

FIN21_Old

FIN42_Old
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06

FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06

Table 8.6 : Results - July 31, 2003


Rank Method R-Squared Correlation MSE MARE
1 SCP-2h 0.8656 0.9304 0.0015 0.0228
2 FIN21_Old 0.8255 0.9086 0.0082 0.0652
3 FIN42_Old 0.8112 0.9007 0.0114 0.0727
4 ARIMA 0.7464 0.8639 0.0062 0.0497
5 WMA-42 0.7424 0.8616 0.0133 0.0814
6 WMA-21 0.7090 0.8420 0.0054 0.0494
7 SCP-24 0.6739 0.8209 0.0036 0.0363
8 FIN42_New_S06 0.6456 0.8035 0.0058 0.0462
9 FIN21_New_S06 0.6393 0.7996 0.0062 0.0497
10 FIN42_New_T02 0.6099 0.7809 0.0073 0.0544
11 SES-21 0.6097 0.7809 0.0052 0.0460
12 SES-42 0.6097 0.7809 0.0052 0.0460
13 FIN21_New_T02 0.5845 0.7646 0.0103 0.0708
14 TES-21 0.5680 0.7537 0.0079 0.0612
15 TES-42 0.5635 0.7507 0.0079 0.0611
8. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 202

Figure
Figure 8.12 : 8.12 : Measured
Measured vs. predicted
and predicted demand demands
(July 31, 2003)
1.7 (July 31, 2003)

1.6

1.5

1.4
D e m a n d (m 3 /s )

1.3

1.2

1.1
Dm WMA-21 WMA-42 SES-21
1.0 SES-42 TES-21 TES-42 FIN21_Old

FIN42_Old SCP-2h SCP-24 ARIMA


0.9
FIN21_New_S06 FIN42_New_S06 FIN21_New_T02 FIN42_New_T02
0.8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
9. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 203

‰ Lately, we also made the same comparison for the years 2004 and
2005. The technique for the old version of FINESSE was excluded here
since it is not available any more. The results of this comparison were in
agreement with what we obtained for years 2002 and 2003. The SCP
technique is still in the first rank, the SES forecasts the demand better than
the TES, and the effect of the prediction periods was almost negligible.

Figure 8.13 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2004


R-Squared Correlation
2004 2004
1.00 1.00
0.90

Correlation
R-squared

0.90
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.60
0.50 0.70
ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-21

TES-42

TES-21

TES-42
SCP-24

WMA-21

WMA-42

SCP-24

WMA-21

WMA-42
SES-21

SES-42

FIN42_New_T02

FIN21_New_T02

SES-21

SES-42

FIN42_New_T02

FIN21_New_T02
SCP-2h

SCP-2h
FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06

FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
2004 2004
0.06 0.30
0.05 0.25
0.04
MARE

0.20
MSE

0.03
0.15
0.02
0.01 0.10
0.00 0.05
ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-21

TES-42

TES-21

TES-42
SCP-24

SES-21

SES-42

FIN42_New_T02

FIN21_New_T02

WMA-21

WMA-42

SCP-24

SES-21

SES-42

FIN42_New_T02

FIN21_New_T02

WMA-21

WMA-42
SCP-2h

SCP-2h
FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06

FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06

Table 8.7 : Results - 2004


Rank Method R-Squared Correlation MSE MARE
1 SCP-2h 0.9624 0.9810 0.0054 0.0684
2 ARIMA 0.9303 0.9645 0.0099 0.0861
3 SCP-24 0.8923 0.9446 0.0132 0.1009
4 SES-21 0.8523 0.9232 0.0161 0.1220
5 SES-42 0.8523 0.9232 0.0161 0.1220
6 FIN42_New_S06 0.8519 0.9230 0.0162 0.1251
7 FIN21_New_S06 0.8503 0.9221 0.0163 0.1254
8 FIN42_New_T02 0.8316 0.9119 0.0203 0.1419
9 FIN21_New_T02 0.8304 0.9113 0.0203 0.1423
10 TES-21 0.8256 0.9086 0.0217 0.1479
11 TES-42 0.8249 0.9083 0.0218 0.1480
12 WMA-21 0.6730 0.8203 0.0385 0.2245
13 WMA-42 0.5584 0.7473 0.0523 0.2835
9. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 204

Figure 8.14 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2005

R-Squared Correlation
2005 2005
1.00 1.00

0.90 0.95

Correlation
R-squared

0.90
0.80
0.85
0.70 0.80
0.60 0.75
ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-21

TES-42

TES-21

TES-42
SCP-24

SES-42

SES-21

WMA-21

WMA-42
FIN21_New_T02

FIN42_New_T02

SCP-24

SES-42

SES-21

WMA-21

WMA-42
FIN21_New_T02

FIN42_New_T02
SCP-2h

SCP-2h
FIN21_New_S06

FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06

FIN42_New_S06
Mean-Squared-Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE)
2005 2005
0.14 0.30
0.12
0.25
0.10

MARE
0.08 0.20
MSE

0.06 0.15
0.04
0.02 0.10
0.00 0.05
ARIMA

ARIMA
TES-21

TES-42

TES-21

TES-42
SCP-24

SES-42

SES-21

FIN21_New_T02

FIN42_New_T02

WMA-21

WMA-42

SCP-24

SES-42

SES-21

FIN21_New_T02

FIN42_New_T02

WMA-21

WMA-42
SCP-2h

SCP-2h
FIN21_New_S06

FIN42_New_S06

FIN21_New_S06

FIN42_New_S06

Table 8.8 : Results - 2005


Rank Method R-Squared Correlation MSE MARE
1 SCP-2h 0.9595 0.9795 0.0139 0.0816
2 SCP-24 0.9417 0.9704 0.0201 0.1026
3 ARIMA 0.9303 0.9645 0.0290 0.1288
4 FIN21_New_S06 0.9025 0.9500 0.0335 0.1370
5 FIN42_New_S06 0.9004 0.9489 0.0344 0.1380
6 SES-42 0.8929 0.9449 0.0368 0.1408
7 SES-21 0.8929 0.9449 0.0368 0.1408
8 FIN21_New_T02 0.8927 0.9448 0.0377 0.1491
9 FIN42_New_T02 0.8916 0.9443 0.0382 0.1501
10 TES-21 0.8788 0.9374 0.0434 0.1588
11 TES-42 0.8779 0.9370 0.0435 0.1590
12 WMA-21 0.7945 0.8913 0.0703 0.2092
13 WMA-42 0.6316 0.7947 0.1264 0.2961
9. CHAPTER 8 : Demand Prediction 205

8.9.3 Conclusion

Data pre-treatment process, such as screening and smoothing, are


widely used as an effective and efficient time series mining tools. In this
test the raw demand data was screened and smoothed to replace the missing
data and remove the noise in the signal.
Prediction period is another issue that should be considered in the
prediction. In this test, the effect of this issue was not quite evident for SES
and TES techniques, and a little effect was observed for FINESSE.
Anyway, when “data is money” from economic viewpoint, using less data
to predict means less prediction costs. Thus, in some cases using a
prediction technique that requires less data will positively be preferable in
term of money.
As mentioned before, one of the problems regarding the exponential
smoothing techniques is setting its smoothing constants, alpha, to the
appropriate values. This parameter depends on the system demand and
should be calibrated and updated from time to time.
An interesting result form this comparison is that the knowledge and
the experience of the persons who manage and operate the networks at the
SCP’s control room had permitted them to develop their own forecasting
tools giving good forecasts for demands for the systems which they operate
when compared to others known techniques such these presented here.
Finally, The morale of this comparison is neither to criticize nor to
praise one of the these techniques but it’s rather to reveal that certain
technique could be more appropriate for a system than others and vice
versa depending mainly on the system itself. However, the persons who
operate the system are the best one who can tell, based on their well
understanding of the behavior of the system demand and water user, which
technique (or techniques) is (are) appropriate(s) to predict the demand for
the system.
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 206

CHAPTER 9
9. Optimization of Water Distribution
Networks

9.1 Introduction

Practical optimization is the art and science of allocating scarce


resources to the best possible effect. Optimization techniques are called
into play every day in questions of industrial planning, resource allocation,
scheduling, decision-making, etc. Many of large scale optimization
techniques in general use today can trace their origins to methods
developed during the World War II to deal with the massive logistical
issues raised by huge armies having millions of men and machines. Any
techniques that promised to improve the effectiveness of the war effort
were desperately needed, especially in the face of limited numbers of
people, machines, and supplies. The fundamentals of the first practical,
large-scale optimization technique, the simplex method, were developed
during the war. This simplex method was perfected shortly after the war
when the first electronic computers were becoming available. In fact, the
early history of computing is closely intertwined with the history of
practical optimization. In the early years, the vast majority of all calculation
on electronic computers was devoted to optimization via the simplex
method (John, 2000).
New optimization techniques are arriving daily, often stimulated by
fascinating insights from other fields. Genetic algorithms, for example, use
an analogy to chromosome encoding and natural selection to evolve good
optimization solutions. Optimization techniques play a role in training
artificial neural networks used in artificial intelligence research for pattern
recognition. Today, optimization methods are used everywhere in business,
industry, government, engineering, and computer science because
optimization problems arise just as regularly in these fields as they did
during World War II (John, 2000) and (Simpson, 1994).
The process of optimization is shown schematically in Figure 9.1
(John, 2000). We typically begin with real problem, full of details and
complexities, some relevant and some not. From this we extract the
essential elements to create a model, and choose an algorithm or solution
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 207

technique to apply to it. In practical problems, the computer will carry out
the necessary calculations. Moving from the algorithm or solution
technique computer implementation is generally the province of numerical
methods. Moving from computer implementation back to the algorithm or
solution technique is called verification. The main idea is to make sure that
the computer implementation is actually carrying out the algorithm as it is
supposed to. Again, this will not be of great concern for users of well-tested
commercial optimizers. We will be greatly concerned with the validation
and sensitivity analysis, the process of moving between the algorithm or
solution technique and the real world problem. Validation is the process of
making sure that the algorithm or solution technique is appropriate for the
real situation. Sensitivity analysis looks at the effect of the specific data on
the results.

Real word problem

Analysis Validation and


sensitivity analysis

Algorithm or solution technique

Numerical model Verification

Computer implementation

Figure 9.1 : Optimization process

In most operational optimization methods, the optimization problem


is simplified through assumptions, discretization or heuristic rules. Such
simplification makes it easier for specific optimization methods to
determine the optimal solution, but introduces bias into the solution by
excluding a large number of potentially good solutions. Genetic algorithms
do not require such simplification measures, giving them a significant
advantage in finding a near global optimal solution over most other
optimization methods (Walski, 2003).

9.2 Optimization terminology

‰ Objective function

When optimizing a system or process, it is important to quantify how


good a particular solution is. A mathematical function called an objective
function is used to measure system performance and indicate the degree to
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 208

which the objectives are achieved. If multiple objectives exist, then there
will be multiple objective functions.
The term optimization refers to mathematical techniques used to
automatically adjust some details of the system in such a way as to achieve,
for instance, the best possible system performance, or the least-cost design
that achieves a specified performance level. The best or most advantageous
solution (or solutions in multiobjective analysis) is called the optimal
solution.

‰ Decision variables

In order to improve the performance of a system, the parameters that


can be changed must be known. These quantifiable parameters are called
decision variables, and their respective values are to be determined. For
example, in pipe-size optimization, the decision variables are the diameter
for each of the pipes being considered. Any restrictions on the values that
can be assigned to decision variables should be clearly stated in the
optimization model. In the case of pipe sizes, each discrete pipe size
available should be defined.

‰ Constraints

When judging systems and solutions, it is necessary to consider the


limits or restrictions within which the system must operate. These limits are
called constraints. If one's objective is to attain a minimum-cost solution,
for example, one must also consider the constraints on system performance
and reliability. Constraints serve to define the decision space from which
the objective function can take its values. The decision space is the set of
all possible decision variables, and the solution space is the set of all
possible solutions to the problem.
Constraints may be further classified as hard constraints, which may
not be exceeded without failure or severe damage to the system, and soft
constraints, which may be exceeded to a certain extent, although it is
generally not desirable to do so. An example of a hard constraint is the
maximum pressure that a pipe can withstand without jeopardizing the
structural integrity of the system. A minimum pressure requirement for all
water system nodes and a maximum permissible velocity for system pipes
are possible soft constraints.

9.3 The Optimization process

The optimization involves:


10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 209

a) The selection of a set of decision variables to describe the decision


alternatives.
b) The selection of an objective or several objectives expressed in terms
of the decision variables that one seeks to optimize (that is; minimize
or maximize).
c) The determination of a set of constraints (both hard and soft),
expressed in terms of the decision variables, which must be satisfied
by any acceptable (feasible) solution.
d) The determination of a set of values (continuous or discrete) for the
decision variables so as to minimize (or maximize) the objective
function, while satisfying all constraints.

In a more formal mathematical fashion, an optimization problem is


said to be given in the standard form if the above elements of the problem
are presented as:

Objective function: Max f(x)


Subject to constraints: g(x) ≤ 0 and h(x) = 0 x ∈ X (Eq. 9.1)

Where:
f = objective function
x = vector of decision variables
f, g, h = functions of x
X = set of all possible solutions

When dealing with complex problems in practice, the experienced


engineer will of course adopt rules of thumb and use personal experience to
focus on possible alternatives that are reasonably cost-effective, thereby
dramatically reducing the decision space size.
Optimization is simply another type of modeling, and the logic that
applies to the application of other computer models applies to optimization
models as well. Optimization tools therefore should be used for supporting
decisions rather than for making them - they should not substitute for the
decision-making process (Goldman, 1998).

9.4 Water distribution networks optimization

Given that water and energy are fundamentally important for the
health and vitality of any community, efficient energy management is
important for water companies to meet government environmental targets
and energy savings for economic reasons. For real-time control of water
distribution networks, the aim should be to optimize the whole process for
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 210

both improved performance and operational-cost reduction, rather than one


or the other.
Water distribution systems management is multidimensional. It
embraces planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance.
Water distribution systems optimization has been a goal for many research
and design projects in the water industry around the world, and can be
broadly classified into two categories, namely design and operations.
Design can include, for example, determining pipe diameters and locations
of chlorine booster stations. Alternatively, water distribution systems
operation is focused on the shorter time horizon, such as choosing trigger-
levels in tanks for switching pumps on/off, and may also include chlorine
dosing concentrations. More recently, water quality considerations have
also been incorporated into water distribution systems optimization by
requiring a minimum chlorine disinfection level throughout the system.
Due to uncertainty in water distribution systems data, such as the demands
and pipe roughness factors, reliability has also been incorporated into
optimization. The objective has usually been to minimize cost, subject to
hydraulic constraints, such as satisfying minimum pressure.
The efficient operation of such systems is a fundamental tool for
extending the system’s service life as much as possible, thus ensuring a
reliable service to the consumers while keeping electrical energy and
maintenance costs at acceptable levels. Efficient operation requires
knowledge of the system, supported by tools such as models for hydraulic
simulation, optimization, and definition of rules, provides the operator with
proper conditions for the rational operation of the system’s units. In this
research work only the optimization of the operation of water distribution
systems was dealt with.
Many water utilities spend 50% or more of their annual operating
costs for electric power, of which more than 95% of the electric power
budget may be associated with the cost of pumping (Pezeshk, 1996).
Consequently, optimizing pump operations can generate significant savings
that would be in the range of hundreds of thousands of euros annually.
The problem of finding the optimal operating strategy is far from
simple: both the electricity tariff and consumer demand can vary greatly
through a typical operating cycle; minimum levels of water have to be
maintained in tanks to ensure reliability of the supply, and the number of
pump switches in an operating cycle has to be limited to avoid excessive
pump maintenance costs. Added to these factors the fact that the hydraulic
behavior of water distribution systems is highly nonlinear, making
computer modeling a complex and time-consuming process. Finally, the
number of possible operating strategies becomes vast for systems with
more than a few pumps and tanks.
In the planning, design and operating phases of a water system, there
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 211

are often many alternatives for each component of the system (Pérez,
2001). To illustrate the size of the optimization problem, consider a simple
network design example in which only 10 pipes must be sized. If we
assume that there are 10 discrete diameters to choose from for each pipe,
then theoretically, the total number of possible design alternatives is 1010.
With the aid of a hydraulic network model, the modeler adopts a
trial-and-error approach to produce a few feasible solutions, which can then
be priced. The main reason to rely on any model in a decision-making
process is to provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of
management decisions on the system being considered. A model also
provides an objective assessment as opposed to subjective opinions of
system behavior. Thus, models should be used in support of decision-
making.
Optimization, as it applies to water distribution system modeling, is
the process of finding the best, or optimal, solution to a water distribution
system problem. Examples of possible problems are the design of new
piping or determination of the most efficient pumping schedule. This
section provides a general overview of the optimization process, including
key terminology and principles.

9.5 Applications of optimization in water distribution networks

Many real-world engineering design or decision-making problems


need to achieve several objectives: minimize risks, maximize reliability,
minimize deviations from desired (target) levels, minimize cost (both
capital and operational), and so on. Various problems from water
distribution modeling practice can be formulated as optimization problems.
This section provides a brief overview of the main areas where
optimization has been applied to water distribution management problems
(Walski, 2003).

¾ Automated calibration

Before hydraulic network models can be used for predictive purposes


with any degree of confidence, they need to be calibrated against field data.
Optimization can automate the process of adjusting the parameters of the
network model by using a measure of the match between modeled and
observed values as the objective. In other words, optimization in this case
is aimed at determining the pipe roughness and nodal demand, which will
minimize the difference between modeled and observed values (see
Chapter 7).
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 212

¾ Operational optimization

Pump operating costs make up a large proportion of the expenses of


water utilities. It is therefore important to plan the operation of pumps to
minimize energy consumption while maintaining the required standard of
service and reliability. For water distribution systems, the objective
function is normally defined to minimize the operational cost of the system
over a period of time (typically 24 hours), and the decision variables are the
times for which each pump is run.

¾ Design/Expansion

Design of new water distribution networks or expansion of existing


ones is often viewed as a least-cost optimization problem with pipe
diameters being the decision variables. Pipe layout, connectivity, and
imposed head and velocity constraints are considered known. Obviously,
other elements (such as service reservoirs and pumps) and other possible
objectives (reliability, redundancy, and water quality) exist that could be
included in the optimization process. However, difficulties with including
reservoirs and pumps and with quantifying additional objectives for use
within the optimization process have historically kept most optimization
researchers focused on pipe diameters and the single objective of least cost
(Walski, 2003).

¾ Rehabilitation

Improvements in a water distribution system's performance can be


achieved through replacing, rehabilitating, duplicating, or repairing some of
the pipes or other components (pumps, tanks, and so on) in the network,
and also by adding completely new components. It is likely that funding
will be available to modify or add only a small number of components to a
network at any one time. The multiobjective optimization problem is
therefore formulated to choose which components to add or improve (and
how to improve them) in order to maximize the benefits resulting from the
system changes, while minimizing the costs, possibly subject to budget
constraints.

9.6 Optimization methods

Optimization search methods range from analytical optimization of


one variable; to linear, nonlinear, and dynamic programming approaches.
The most sophisticated search methods mimic various natural processes in
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 213

their approaches; these techniques are called adaptive search methods.


Adaptive methods known as genetic algorithms mimic the natural selection
process and have been successfully applied to distribution network
optimization (Walski, 2003).
The hydraulic simulation model is used to implicitly solve for the
hydraulic constraints that define the flow phenomena (continuity and
energy balance) each time the search method needs to evaluate these
constraints. The search process starts by generating one or more initial
solutions. Each solution is then tested by solving the hydraulic simulation
model to compute the flows and pressures in the system. Based on the cost
and performance (minimum pressure at nodes, minimum/maximum
velocities, travel times, and so on), the solution is assessed and the search
method generates a new test solution. The procedure is repeated until some
convergence criterion is reached.

‰ Analytical Optimization

Analytical optimization techniques are often introduced in calculus


courses. These techniques usually deal with unconstrained problems for
which one is trying to obtain the optimal solution to a problem that consists
of an objective function alone (that is, without constraints imposed on the
solution). The problem of unconstrained optimization of a function of more
than one variable (the multivariate case) is concerned with finding the
correct combination of the values of the variables to obtain the best value
of the objective function. The criteria used for selecting the combination of
variables are similar to those used for single-variable functions but require
more complex mathematical techniques (Walski, 2003). Analytical
optimization methods do not usually work well for network problems
because of the large number of elements involved (pipes, valves, tanks,
pumps, etc).

‰ Linear programming

Linear programming (LP) refers to the class of optimization


problems in which both the objective function and constraints in (Eq. 9.1)
are linear functions that is, the variable's exponent is 1. The knowledge that
the optimal solution of a LP problem is an extreme point motivates a
special iterative procedure for reaching the optimum called the simplex
method. Starting from a feasible extreme point, the simplex method
changes the variables to move to an adjacent extreme point where the
objective function has a larger value. Movement therefore occurs on the
edge of the feasible region along a selected constraint line that is connected
to the current extreme point. The procedure selects the next extreme point
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 214

on the basis of the largest gain in the objective function value. It continues
in this way until an extreme point is reached for which no further
improvement in the objective function is possible (Hillier, 1995) and
(Wagner, 1975).
One of the greatest advantages of LP over nonlinear programming
(NLP) algorithms is that if the optimum exists, LP is guaranteed to find it.
Thanks to the advances in computing of the past decade, problems having
tens or hundreds of thousands of continuous variables are regularly solved.
LP makes it possible to analyze the final solution and find its sensitivity to
changes in parameters. However, the assumption of linearity is often not
appropriate for real engineering systems, and it is certainly not appropriate
for water distribution system optimization. Linear programming techniques
work well for pipe sizing problems involving branched systems with one-
directional flow (Walski, 2003).

‰ Nonlinear programming

Nonlinear programming (NLP) problems have the same structure as


the general optimization problem given in (Eq. 9.1). However, nonlinear
programming refers to the class of optimization problems for which some
or all of the problem functions, f(x), g(x), and h(x), are nonlinear with
respect to the variables. NLP models more realistically capture certain
characteristics of system relations but introduce significant computational
difficulties. Nonlinear problems become even more difficult to solve if one
or more constraints are involved. Some NLP problems are further
complicated by the existence of decision variables that can only take one
integer values. Discrete pipe sizes are an example of this. Optimization
problems that combine continuous and integer values are referred to as
mixed-integer problems and require a special set of techniques such as the
Simple Branch-and-Bound (SBB) method (Hillier, 1995). Because of the
nonlinear nature of head loss equations and cost functions, various
nonlinear programming methods have been used for pipe sizing
optimization and optimal pumps scheduling.

‰ Dynamic programming

Dynamic Programming (DP) is a procedure for optimizing a


multistage decision process in which a decision is required at each stage.
The technique is based on the simple principle of optimality of Bellman
(Bellman, 1957), which states that an optimal policy must have the
property that regardless of the decisions leading to a particular state, the
remaining decisions must constitute an optimal sequence for leaving that
state. This technique is appropriate for problems that have the following
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 215

characteristics:

a) The problem can be divided into stages with a decision required at


each stage;
b) Each stage has a number of system states associated with it;
c) The decision at one stage transforms that state into a state in the next
stage through a state transformation function;
d) Given the current state, the optimal decision for each of the
remaining states does not depend on the previous states or decisions.

Consider the following example, which illustrates the basic


principles behind the DP method. Assume that the operation of a water
distribution system needs to be optimized over a 24-hour period under
known demand conditions. If a day is divided into 24 periods, then the
decision of how much water to pump into the central reservoir to meet
demands and minimize the cost of pumping is made at 24 stages. The
reservoir volume will go through different states during the 24 hours (for
example, the reservoir could be full initially, then empty, and then refill).
Therefore, the system state or the state variable is defined as the states of
the reservoir (that is, the reservoir volume). The decision in the example is
the volume pumped into the reservoir, and the state transformation function
is the continuity equation relating the storage in one time period to the
storage in the previous time period. Dynamic programming works well as
long as the number of decision variables is very small.

‰ Genetic Algorithms

The theory behind Genetic Algorithms (GAs) was proposed by


Holland (Holland, 1975) and further developed in the 1980s by Goldberg
(Goldberg, 1989) and others. These methods rely on the collective learning
process within a population of individuals, each of which represents a
search point in the space of potential solutions. Various applications have
been presented since the first works, and GAs have clearly demonstrated
their capability to yield good solutions even in the complicated cases of
multi-peak, discontinuous, and non-differentiable functions. The following
are the steps in a standard GA run:

1. Randomly generate an initial population of solutions.


2. Compute the fitness of each solution in the initial population.
3. Generate a new population using biologically inspired operators:
reproduction (crossover) and mutation.
4. Compute fitness of the new solutions.
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 216

5. Stop if the termination condition is reached, or repeat steps 3


through 5 to produce successive generations.

Genetic algorithms belong to a class of nondeterministic algorithms


that draws on Darwinian evolution theory (Savic, 1997). This search
strategy allows GAs to converge rapidly on an optimal or near-optimal
solution while only analyzing a fraction of the number of possible
solutions. Although they are not guaranteed to find the global optimum,
GAs are generally good at finding "acceptably good" solutions to problems
"acceptably quickly." Where specialized techniques exist for solving a
particular problem, they are likely to outperform GA in both speed and
accuracy of the final result. GAs can be computationally intensive when
objective function evaluation requires significant computational resources
such as those required for the hydraulic analysis of a large water
distribution model.

9.7 FINESSE scheduler for optimal operational scheduling

FINESSE software has an environment for performing enhanced


hydraulic modeling including optimal scheduling and other optimization
tasks. This calculates optimal control schedules for pumps and valves, and
for water production, with respect to specified system constraints, for
example reservoir levels. The input data are similar to that of the simulator
but also include constraints, electricity tariffs and simulated hydraulics. The
scheduler, as with all tools in FINESSE, is general purpose in that it takes
any data model of a network in FINESSE and if the model is feasible it
calculates the optimal schedules (WSS-DMU, 2003). The scheduler has
solved other networks such as Kilham (UK), Yorkshire Grid (UK), South
Staffordshire water supply system (UK) and Aix Nord/Trévaresse (France)
networks (Tischer, 2003). However, FINESSE Pump Scheduler considers
only Hazen-Williams equation to calculate the elements headloss. Darcy-
Weisbach equation is not considered for the moment in the Scheduler.

9.7.1 Mathematical principles and problem formulation

Optimal scheduling calculates operational schedules for pumps,


valves and treatment works for a given period of time, typically 24 hours,
and can be classified as an optimal control problem. Generally speaking,
the formulation of the optimal scheduling problems comprises three
components (Tischer, 2003), (Walski, 2003), (Ulanicki 1997) and (Yu,
1994):
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 217

- Objective function
- Network model
- Operational constraints

They have to be expressed in the language of mathematical


equations. The optimization problem consists in searching the space of
input schedules to minimize the cost over a given horizon while satisfying
constraints on the output flows and heads. The problem formulation will
involve many equations and many variables.

1) Objective function

The objective function typically includes energy cost for pumping


and treatment cost for producing a given mass of water. The formula for
the energy cost should include a pump efficiency factor. The pumping cost
depends on the electrical tariff. There are different pricing options proposed
by electrical boards. The tariff is a function of time so there are cheaper and
more expensive periods.
The optimization problem will be considered over a given time
horizon. The operational cost can be expressed by the following equation
(Eq. 9.2) containing the two terms corresponding to a unit tariff charge and
the treatment cost respectively; other costs can be added as required.
gq j (t )Δ h j (t )
tf tf

φ= ∑ ∫t γj
(t ) × dt + ∑ ∫ γ (t ) × q (t )dt
j j
( Eq . 9 .2 )
j∈ J p 0
p
η (q j
(t ), c j
()
t ) j∈ J s t0
s s

Where:
o Ф = total operational cost
o Jp = set of indices for pump stations
o Js = set of indices for treatment works (sources)
gq j (t )Δh j (t )
= electrical power consumed by a j pump station at any
o
(
η q j (t ), c j (t ) )
point of time
o g q jΔ h j = mechanical power required to increase the head of the
pump flow q by Δh j , g is the gravity constant
j

o η(qj , cj) = pump efficiency, depends on the pump flow qj and the
control variable cj . The latter vector can represent number of pumps
on and/or pump speed. Typically η(qj , cj) is a quadratic function of qj
o qsj = water treatment work flow (sources)
o c j (t ) = number of pumps-on and/or pump speed
o γ p (t)
j
= unit electricity tariff
o γ sj (t) = volumetric treatment cost for j treatment works
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 218

2) Network model

The hydraulic model has been formulated in Chapter 5 (see section


5.3) :

dh r
= − S − 1 (h r ) q r (t )
dt

Δ h = R (q (t ) ) q (t )
(Eq. 9.3)
Λ q (t ) = − d

⎡Δ h ⎤
ΓΔ h = ⎢ ⎥
⎣ 0 ⎦

The fundamental requirement in an optimal scheduling problem is


that all calculated variables satisfy the hydraulic model equations. The
network equations are non-linear and play the role of equality constraints in
the optimization problem. In the simulation task the operational schedule
were known, in the optimal scheduling task the schedules for pumps,
valves, and water production (treatment works schedules) are unknown and
they are called decision variables.

3) Operational constraints

The operational control constraints reflect requirements for a


physical system to remain in a feasible state. They include:

• Constraints on operational variables, e.g. maximum number of pumps in


a pump station.
• Treatment work requirements reflecting production technology such as:
limited flow rate, limited change rate, limited total production.
• Reservoir levels lower and upper bounds.
• Pressure requirements at critical nodes.

These constraints are linear and are very easy to handle by numerical
algorithms. The major task for operational control is to keep the system
states within their assigned limits (feasible region). Practical requirements
are translated from grammatical statements into mathematical equalities
and inequalities. The control variables such as number of pumps-on, pump
speed; or valve positions are constrained by lower and upper bounds
determined by the construction of the control components:
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 219

cmin ≤ c(t) ≤ cmax (Eq. 9.4)

Constraints on the control variable corresponding to water


production reflect the properties of the water treatment processes. These
may be instantaneous constraints:

qsmin ≤ qs(t) ≤ qsmax for t ∈ [ t0,tf ] (Eq. 9.5)

The reservoir levels (water network state variables) are constrained


in order to prevent the reservoirs from emptying or overflowing. These
may also be used to maintain adequate reserve storage for emergency
purposes:

hrmin ≤ hr(t) ≤ hrmax for t ∈ [ t0,tf ] (Eq. 9.6)

Similar constraints must be applied to the heads at critical connection


nodes in order to maintain required pressures throughout the water
network:

hcmin ≤ hc(t) ≤ hcmax for t ∈ [ t0,tf ] (Eq. 9.7)

4) Decision variables

The network scheduling problem consists in searching the space of


decision variables to minimize the objective function over a given time
horizon, whilst satisfying the constraints. The decision variables are
operational schedules c(t) for the control elements (e.g. pumps and valves),
and water production schedules q s (t ) . For given control schedules
( c(t ), q s (t ) ) the network model equations can be solved and the values of
all internal variables evaluated. This enables the calculation of the cost
(value of the objective function Ф), and also the validation that all
operational constraints are satisfied. Decision variables such as pump
speed, valve position and pump flow are naturally continuous while others
such as the number of pumps switched on are integer.

9.7.2 Transformation of the network scheduling problem into a


non-linear programming problem

In order to solve the above optimization equations (objective


function, network model equations, and operational control constraints)
numerically, the problem is converted into a non-linear programming
problem using time discretization. The time horizon [t 0 , t f ] is replaced by a
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 220

discrete grid {t 0 , t1 , t 2 ,..., t K } where t K = t f and Δt = t k +1 − t k is a timestep. The


time grid can be referred to as {0, 1, 2, ..., K } . The integrals in the objective
function (Eq. 9.2) are replaced by finite sums in (Eq. 9.7):

gq j (k )Δh j (k )
k =K k =K
φ = ∑ ∑ γ (k ) × j
× Δt + ∑ ∑γ j
(k ) × qsj (k ) × Δ t ( Eq. 9.8)
j∈J p k = 0
p
(
η q j (k ), c j (k ) ) j∈ J s k = 0
s

The differential equation describing reservoir storage is discretized


using a simple Euler scheme in (Eq. 9.9):

dhr
= − S −1 (hr ) qr (t ) ⇒
dt
hr (k + 1) − hr (k ) = −Δ t × S −1 qr (k ) for k = 0,1,..., K − 1 ( Eq . 9.9)

The algebraic equations (Eq. 9.3) are transformed by direct


replacement of the continuous argument (t) by the discrete variable (k).
Thus (Eq. 9.8) is an objective function of the non-linear programming
problem, (Eq. 9.3) and (Eq. 9.9) represent equality constraints, and [(Eq.
9.4), (Eq. 9.5), (Eq. 9.6), and (Eq. 9.7)] represents inequality constraints. In
this interpretation, each equation is a collection of constraints for each
timestep k=0,…,K-1, so the total number of constraints is equal to the
number of equations multiplied by a number of timesteps. Similarly, the
number of variables is multiplied by the number of timesteps, and
subsequently the decision vector has the following structure:
T T T T
x = [cT (0), qs (0), hc (0), hr (0), qT (0), qr (0), ...,
T T T
cT (K − 1), qs (K − 1), hc (K − 1), hr (K − 1), qT (K − 1), qr (K − 1)] (Eq. 9.10)

In the transformed non-linear programming problem all variables are


decision variables and are iterated during the numerical procedure.

9.7.3 The equation-oriented programming language

Substantial progress was made in the 1950s and 1960s with the
development of algorithms and computer codes to solve large mathematical
programming problems. The number of applications of these tools in the
1970s was less than expected, however, because the solution procedures
formed only a small part of the overall modeling effort. A large part of the
time required to develop a model involved data preparation and
transformation and report preparation. Each model required many hours of
analyst and programming time to organize the data and write the programs
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 221

that would transform the data into the form required by the mathematical
programming optimizers. Furthermore, it was difficult to detect and
eliminate errors because the programs that performed the data operations
were only accessible to the specialist who wrote them and not to the
analysts in charge of the project (Brooke, 1992).
There are very efficient modeling environments and solvers for
resolving large-scale non-linear programming problems. The General
Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) is a high-level modeling system for
mathematical programming and optimization. It consists of a language
compiler and a stable of integrated high-performance solvers. GAMS is
tailored for complex, large scale modeling applications, and allows to build
large maintainable models that can be adapted quickly to new situations.
GAMS is available for use on personal computers, workstations,
mainframes and supercomputers (Brooke, 1992), (Brooke, 1998), and
(Ulanicki, 1997).
The GAMS programming language is a declarative language in that
it declares what the problem is, rather than how to solve it. The GAMS
compiler and a “Solver” automatically accomplish the latter task. The
GAMS program is automatically compiled to a form that can be executed
by numerical solvers. The results from the numerical solver are
automatically returned and GAMS outputs the results.
CONOPT is a non-linear programming solver, which is based on the
Generalized Reduced Gradient algorithm or originally in French “Gradient
Réduit Généralisé” (GRG) first suggested by Abadie and Carpentier and
was presented in English in 1969 (Abadie, 1969). Details on the algorithm
can be found in Drud (1985 and 1992). Generalized Reduced Gradient is
the generalization of Wolfe's reduced gradient method to a set of non-linear
constraints. Hence it has the advantage of performing iterations in a
reduced state space. Some variables are changed freely by the algorithm
(super-basic variables) and some are calculated from the equality
constraints of the problem (basic variables). The gradient is calculated only
with respect to the super-basic variables. GRG algorithms are efficient for
models with few degrees of freedom (Ladson, 1986) and (Drud, 1992).
CONOPT can solve the optimal scheduling problem in reasonable
operational time for medium-to-large sized networks (Drud, 1996).
The FINESSE scheduler for optimal scheduling problem and
solution of different optimization tasks is based on the GAMS modeling
language and the CONOPT solver. GAMS has been integrated into
FINESSE by using a Dynamic Link Library (Tischer, 2003). The modeling
environment includes previously prepared templates for different types of
tasks. In order to solve a specific network the templates are filled with data
from the data store. The optimal scheduling problem can be solved for any
network topology. Because there is plenty of existing network models, as
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 222

GINAS input data files (Coulbeck, 1985) and (Ulanicki, 1999), the
software is equipped with an auxiliary module to import existing models
into the Data Store. If a model contains too many pipes it can be
automatically simplified by a special network simplification.
The scheduler is general purpose. If a specific network is to be
solved then modeling code is generated from the network data model stored
in the FINESSE database. The optimization procedure is initiated by the
user by operating the user interface. Data is transferred from FINESSE to
the GAMS manager via the FINESSE data interface library. The GAMS
manager produces the GAMS source file containing a complete and
concise formulation of the problem for the specific network. The GAMS
executable is then called to compile and execute the source file. The
GAMS software environment itself controls the solver via its solver
interface. When the solution is completed GAMS outputs the results into an
output file according to instructions given in the source file. This output file
is read by the GAMS manager and translated back to FINESSE via the
FINESSE Data Interface Library (DMU-WSS, 2003).

9.7.4 Selection of a starting point

An important requirement for non-linear programming is the


selection of a starting point for numerical iterations. Non-linear
programming belongs to a class of “hill climbing” local search algorithms
and the starting point should be as close as possible to the final solution.
All variables shown in the vector (Eq. 9.10) have to be initialized. Since
GAMS and CONOPT solver are integrated into FINESSE environment
with a common data structure, the simulator is used to provide an initial
starting point for the network scheduler. This facilitates the solution of the
initialization problem in a very efficient manner. The user provides an
initial guess for water production (qs(t)) and pump schedules (c(t)), which
are simulated and the hydraulic results passed to the scheduler as a starting
point. In operational use, the initial schedules can be taken from historical
data (Drud, 1994) and (Ulanicki, 1999).

9.7.5 Continuous relaxation of the network scheduling problem

Problems containing both continuous and integer variables are called


Mixed-Integer problems. The Mixed-Integer problems and the algorithms
for solving them will briefly be presented in the next section. Examples of
such problem in water distribution network are: optimal design of water
distribution network (Hossein, 2006), optimal operation schedules of a
water distribution network (Bounds, 2005), and discrete-time operative
planning problem when operating schedules are specified typically in
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 223

hourly intervals (Burgschweiger, 2004).


The FINESSE Pump Scheduler can produce both continuous and
discrete schedules. Decision variables such as pump speed, valve position
and pump flow are naturally continuous while others such as the number of
pumps switched on are integer. The energy savings are mainly obtained
through reservoirs that enable the shifting of pumping between expensive
and cheap tariff periods. The reservoirs can be filled during the cheap tariff
periods and used to offset pumping during expensive periods.
The change in a reservoir volume over some period of time
(timestep) is governed by its net inflow/outflow during that period, which
in turn affects the average flow pumped during the period. Using this
practical observation it is assumed that the integer decision variables can
vary continuously within constraints. The scheduler in FINESSE initially
assumes that the problem is a purely continuous one to calculate the
optimal pump flows. The non-linear programming algorithm efficiently
solves this relaxed continuous optimization problem. The relaxed optimal
continuous solution is cheaper than any optimal discrete solution (Фc < Фd).
The discrete solution that is found in the neighborhood of the continuous
solution is assumed to be close to the optimal discrete solution (Ulanicki,
1999).
In the later version of FINESSE, a discrete scheduler is employed in
order to translate the continuous solution into an integer solution for local
operational use. As a starting point, the reservoir trajectories are taken from
the continuous solution. For each tariff period, a Simple Branch-and-Bound
algorithm (SBB) is applied to follow the original reservoir trajectories as
closely as possible. However, the SBB solver is not available at the SCP.
SBB is a GAMS solver based on a combination of the standard
branch-and-bound method known from mixed integer linear programming
and nonlinear programming solvers supported by GAMS. Initially, the
Relaxed Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming (RMINLP) model is
solved using the initial values provided by the modeler. SBB will stop
immediately if the RMINLP model is unbounded or infeasible or fails. If
all discrete variables in the RMINLP model are integer, SBB will return
this solution as the optimal integer solution. Otherwise, the current solution
is stored and the Branch-and-Bound procedure will start (SBB User
Manual) and (John, 2000). The SBB method is the basic workhorse
technique for solving integer and discrete problem. The method is based on
the observation that the enumeration of integer solution has a tree structure.
The main idea of Branch-and-Bound is to avoid growing the whole tree as
much as possible. The name of the method comes from the “branching”
that happens when a node is selected for further growth and the next
generation of children of that node is created. The “bounding” comes from
the bound on the best value attained by growing a node is estimated.
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 224

9.7.6 Solution approaches to integer programming problems (IP)

LP and NLP problems assume continuity of the solution region


where decision variables can equal whole numbers or any other real
number. However, in engineering problems fractional solutions are not
always acceptable. Integer programming (IP) requires a subset of the
decision variables to take on integer values. IP also permits modeling of
fixed costs, logical conditions, discrete levels of resources and nonlinear
functions. Problems containing integer variables fall into several classes. A
problem in which all variables are integer is a pure IP problem. A problem
with some integer and some continuous variables, is a Mixed IP problem
(MIP). A problem in which the integer variables are restricted to equal
either zero or one is called a zero-one IP problem. There are pure zero-one
IP problems where all variables are zero-one and mixed zero-one IP
problems containing both zero-one and continuous (McCarl, 1997). IP
problems are notoriously difficult to solve due to their combinatorial nature
and potential existence of multiple local minima in the search space
(Vladimir, 2003). They can be solved by several very different algorithms.
Today, algorithm selection is an art as some algorithms work better on
some problems.
After the invention of LP and NLP, those examining LP relatively
quickly came to the realization that it would be desirable to solve problems
which had some integer variables (Dantzig, 1960). This led to algorithms
for the solution of pure IP problems. The first algorithms were cutting
plane algorithms as developed by Dantzig, Fulkerson and Johnson
(Dantzig, 1954) and Gomory (Gomory, 1958). Land and Doig subsequently
introduced the branch and bound algorithm (Land, 1960). More recently,
implicit enumeration (Balas, 1965), decomposition (Benders, 1962),
lagrangian relaxation (Geoffrion, 1974) and heuristic (Zanakis, 1981)
approaches have been used. Unfortunately, after 20 years of experience
involving literally thousands of studies none of the available algorithms
have been shown to perform satisfactorily for all IP problems (Von
Randow, 1982). However, certain types of algorithms are good at solving
certain types of problems. The section below briefly reviews these
approaches.

A) Rounding

Rounding is the most naive approach to IP problem solution. The


rounding approach involves the solution of the problem as a LP problem
followed by an attempt to round the solution to an integer one by dropping
all the fractional parts; or by searching out satisfactory solutions wherein
the variable values are adjusted to nearby larger or smaller integer values.
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 225

Rounding is probably the most common approach to solving IP problems.


In general, rounding is often practical, but it should be used with
care. One should compare the rounded and unrounded solutions to see
whether after rounding: a) the constraints are adequately satisfied; and b)
whether the difference between the optimal LP and the post rounding
objective function value is reasonably small. If so, the formal IP algorithms
are usually not cost effective and the rounded solution can be used. On the
other hand, if one finds the rounded objective function to be significantly
altered or the constraints violated from a pragmatic viewpoint, then a
formal IP exercise needs to be undertaken (McCarl, 1997).

B) Cutting planes

The first formal IP algorithms involved the concept of cutting planes.


Cutting planes remove part of the feasible region without removing integer
solution points. The basic idea behind a cutting plane is that the optimal
integer point is close to the optimal LP solution, but does not fall at the
constraint intersection so additional constraints need to be imposed.
Consequently, constraints are added to force the non-integer LP solution to
be infeasible without eliminating any integer solutions. The cutting plane
algorithm continually adds such constraints until an integer solution is
obtained. Several points need to be made about cutting plane approaches.
First, many cuts may be required to obtain an integer solution. Second, the
first integer solution found is the optimal solution. This solution is
discovered after only enough cuts have been added to yield an integer
solution. Consequently, if the solution algorithm runs out of time or space
the modeler is left without an acceptable solution (this is often the case).
Third, given comparative performance in comparison with other
algorithms, cutting plane approaches have faded in popularity (Dantzig,
1954) and (Gomory, 1958).

C) Branch-and-Bound

The second solution approach developed was the branch and bound
algorithm. Branch and bound, originally introduced by Land and Doig,
pursues a divide-and-conquer strategy. The algorithm starts with a LP
solution and also imposes constraints to force the LP solution to become an
integer solution much as do cutting planes. However, branch and bound
constraints are upper and lower bounds on variables. The branch and bound
solution procedure generates two problems (branches) after each LP
solution. Each problem excludes the unwanted non-integer solution,
forming an increasingly more tightly constrained LP problem. There are
several decisions required. One must both decide which variable to branch
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 226

upon and which problem to solve (branch to follow). When one solves a
particular problem, one may find an integer solution. However, one cannot
be sure it is optimal until all problems have been examined. The branch and
bound approach is the most commonly used general purpose IP solution
algorithm (Beale, 1977) and (Lawler, 1966). It is implemented in many
codes including all of those interfaced with GAMS. However, its use can
be expensive. The algorithm does yield intermediate solutions which are
usable although not optimal. Often the branch and bound algorithm will
come up with near optimal solutions quickly but will then spend a lot of
time verifying optimality (Land, 1960).

D) Lagrangian relaxation

Lagrangian relaxation (Geoffrion, 1974) is another area of IP


algorithmic development. Lagrangian relaxation refers to a procedure in
which some of the constraints are relaxed into the objective function using
an approach motivated by Lagrangian multipliers. The main idea is to
remove difficult constraints from the problem so the integer programs are
much easier to solve. The trick then is to choose the right constraints to
relax and to develop values for the Lagrange multipliers leading to the
appropriate solution. Lagrangian Relaxation has been used in two settings:
to improve the performance of bounds on solutions; and to develop
solutions which can be adjusted directly or through heuristics so they are
feasible in the overall problem (Fisher, 1981). An important Lagrangian
Relaxation result is that the relaxed problem provides an upper bound on
the solution to the unrelaxed problem at any stage. Lagrangian Relaxation
has been heavily used in branch and bound algorithms to derive upper
bounds for a problem to see whether further traversal down that branch is
worthwhile.

E) Benders decomposition

Another algorithm for IP is called Benders Decomposition. This


algorithm solves mixed integer programs via structural exploitation.
Benders developed the procedure, thereafter called Benders
Decomposition, which decomposes a mixed integer problem into two
problems which are solved iteratively - an integer master problem and a
linear subproblem. The success of the procedure involves the structure of
the subproblem and the choice of the subproblem. The procedure can work
very poorly for certain structures. The real art of utilizing Benders
decomposition involves the recognition of appropriate problems and/or
problem structures which will converge rapidly. The most common reason
to use Benders is to decompose large mixed integer problem into a small,
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 227

difficult master problem and a larger simple linear program. This allows
the solution of the problem by two pieces of software which individually
would not be adequate for the overall problem but collectively are
sufficient for the resultant pieces. In addition, the decomposition may be
used to isolate particular easy-to-solve subproblem structures (Benders,
1962).

F) Heuristics

Many IP problems are combinatorial and difficult to solve by nature.


In fact, the study of NP complete problems (Papadimitrou, 1982) has
shown extreme computational complexity for problems such as the
traveling salesman problem. Such computational difficulties have led to a
large number of heuristics. These heuristics (Zanakis, 1981) are used when
the quality of the data does not merit the generation of exact optimal
solutions; a simplified model has been used, and/or when a reliable exact
method is not available, computationally attractive, and/or affordable.
Arguments for heuristics are also presented regarding improving the
performance of an optimizer where a heuristic may be used to save time in
a branch and bound code, or if the problem is repeatedly solved. Many IP
heuristics have been developed, some of which are specific to particular
types of problems. Generally, heuristics perform well on special types of
problems, quite often coming up with errors of smaller than two percent.
Heuristics also do not necessarily reveal the true optimal solution, and in
any problem, one is uncertain as to how far one is from the optimal
solution.

G) Structural exploitation

Years of experience and thousands of papers on IP have indicated


that general-purpose IP algorithms do not work satisfactorily for all IP
problems. The most promising developments in the last several years have
involved structural exploitation, where the particular structure of a problem
has been used in the development of the solution algorithm. Such
approaches have been the crux of the development of a number of
heuristics, the Benders Decomposition approaches, Lagrangian Relaxation
and a number of problem reformulation approaches. Specialized branch
and bound algorithms adapted to particular problems have also been
developed (Fuller, 1976) and (Glover, 1978). The application of such
algorithms has often led to spectacular results, with problems with
thousands of variables being solved in seconds of computer time
(Geoffriones, 1974). The main mechanisms for structural exploitation are
to develop an algorithm especially tuned to a particular problem or, more
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 228

generally, to transform a problem into a simpler problem to solve.

H) Other solution algorithms and computer algorithms

The above characterization of solution algorithms is not exhaustive.


A field as vast as IP has spawned many other types of algorithms and
algorithmic approaches. Genetic algorithms (GA) are powerful tools for
solving IP problems (Vladimir, 2003). These methods do not require
gradient or Hessian information. However, to reach an optimal solution
with a high degree of confidence, they typically require a large number of
analyses during the optimization search. Performance of these methods is
even more of an issue for problems that include continuous variables.
Several studies have concentrated on improving the reliability and
efficiency of GAs. Hybrid algorithms formed by the combination of a GA
with local search methods provide increased performance when compared
to a GA with a discrete encoding of real numbers or local search alone
(Seront, 2000).

¾ Integer Programming softwares:

Recent developments in integer–programming software systems


have tremendously improved our ability to solve large–scale instances.
Today, instances with thousands of integer variables are solved reliably on
a personal computer and high quality solutions. The basis of state–of–the–
art integer–programming systems is a linear–programming based Branch–
and–Bound algorithm (Atamturk, 2005). The most known software
packages available for solving IPs are listed here. Complete coverage of
these softwares is far beyond the scope of this thesis and the interested
reader could consult:
http://www-fp.mcs.anl.gov/otc/Guide/SoftwareGuide/Categories/intprog.html

IP softwares list:
1. CPLEX : linear, quadratically constrained and mixed integer
programming.
2. SBB : Simple Branch-and- Bound Solver -GAMS
3. Excel and Quattro Pro Solvers : spreadsheet-based linear, integer
and nonlinear programming.
4. FortMP : linear and mixed integer quadratic programming.
5. LAMPS : linear and mixed-integer programming.
6. LINDO Callable Library : linear, mixed-integer and quadratic
programming.
7. LINGO : linear, integer, nonlinear programming with modeling
language.
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 229

8. MILP88 : mixed-integer linear programming.


9. MINTO : mixed-integer linear programming.
10. MIPIII : mixed integer programming.
11. MPSIII : linear and mixed integer programming (includes OML,
WHIZARD, and DATAFORM).
12. OML : linear and mixed-integer programming.
13. OSL : linear, quadratic and mixed-integer programming.
14. PROC LP : linear and integer programming.
15. Q01SUBS : quadratic programming for matrices.
16. QAPP : quadratic assignment problems.
17. What'sBest : linear and mixed integer programming.
18. WHIZARD : linear and mixed-integer programming.
19. XPRESS-MP : from Dash Associates-linear and integer
programming.

9.7.7 Discretization by post-processing of continuous solution

The FINESSE Pump Scheduler does assume that the number of


pumps switched on can vary continuously between constraints. For
example, 3.73 pumps switched on would be an acceptable solution.
However, the continuous solution can be transformed into a discrete
solution by simple post-processing. The idea behind the post-processing
approach that I will present in the next paragraphs to discretize the
continuous pump schedules, is that for every timestep the continuous
number of pumps turned on is rounded up or down and, thus, the nearest
discrete solution is chosen such that the deviation from the optimal
reservoir trajectory is smallest.
Owning to the fact that the optimal pump schedule is continuous
solution; therefore, any discrete solution will be less optimal, either in
terms of total cost, or in terms of hydraulic behavior of the system. We
assume that the best discrete solution in terms of hydraulic behavior lies in
the neighborhood of the continuous solution.
When we round the continuous number of pumps up or down, for a
given timestep, one parameter (or more) in the system must be therefore
adjusted to eliminate the effect of the rounding on the hydraulic behavior of
the system. In other words, the pump’s head and total discharge must be as
those of the continuous solution for the given timestep. Here, I will
illustrate how one can transform the continuous solution into discrete
solution for the pump schedule by adjusting one of these parameters:

- Valve aperture,
- Pump speed, or
- Timestep length
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 230

1. Discretization by: Valve aperture adjustment

In this approach, when we round the number of pumps up or down,


we adjust the valve aperture (or opening) mounted just at the outlet of the
pumping station (Figure 9.2). When we round up the pump curve will
move upward and since we attempt to maintain the discharge obtained by
the continuous solution, hence, we decrease the valve aperture to increase
system headloss and shift the system curve upward such that the two curves
intersect at the same discharge obtained by the continuous solution but the
pump head will increase. Conversely, when we round down the pump
curve will move downward and to maintain the discharge obtained by the
continuous solution, we increase the valve aperture to reduce system
headloss and shift the system curve downward such that the two curves
intersect at the same discharge obtained by the continuous solution but the
pump head will decrease.
The criterion for rounding up or down is the change in the valve
aperture (∆vv) such that whichever rounding results in smallest ∆vv will be
selected as the discrete solution. This means the deviation from the pump
optimal head is therefore smallest. The discretization procedure is shown in
0. This procedure is repeated for each timestep.

Figure 9.2 : Discretization by valve aperture adjustment


120 1.0 Pump

2.0 Pumps

2.7 Pumps
100
3.0 Pumps
Hup Sy s tem Curv e_2.7
80
Δ h vup Sy s tem Curv e_3.0
Hc
Δ h vdown Sy s tem Curv e_2.0
H (m)

60
Hdown
40

20
2.0 pumps
1.0 pump 2.7 pumps 3.0 pumps
0
0 50 100
Qc 150 200 250 300 350
Q (l/s)

Pump Valve
Qcont , Hcont hv, vv Qcont

1.852
⎛ Qp⎞ h v : valve headloss, k v : valve coefficien t
h v = k v ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
v V : valve aperture
⎝ vv ⎠
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 231

Figure 9.3 : Valve adjustment approach

Input
From Continuous solution

Ncont = number of pumps

Qcont = total discharge

Hcont = pump head

h cont
v = valve headloss

v cont
v = valve aperture

Calculations
Nup =Round-up(Ncont) Ndown =Round-down(Ncont)

2 2
⎛Q ⎞ ⎛Q ⎞ ⎛Q ⎞ ⎛Q ⎞
H up = a ⎜ cont ⎟ + b⎜ cont ⎟+c H down = a ⎜⎜ cont ⎟⎟ + b⎜⎜ cont ⎟⎟ + c
⎜ N up ⎟ ⎜ N ⎟ ⎝ N down ⎠ ⎝ N down ⎠
⎝ ⎠ ⎝ up ⎠
Δh v = H up − H cont
up
Δh down
v = H cont − H down

v = hv
h up cont
+ Δh up
v
h down
v = h cont
v − Δh down
v

v =
v up
kv
( )
h up
v
0.54
v down
v =
kv
Q cont
(h down
v )
0.54

Q cont

Δv up
v = vv
cont
- v up
v
Δv down
v = v down
v - v cont
v

Discretization
Nup or Ndown?

if Δv down
v > Δv up
v then N disc = N up and v disc
v = v up
v

if Δv down
v < Δv up
v then N disc = N down and v disc
v = v down
v

Output
N disc and v disc
v
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 232

2. Discretization by: Pump speed adjustment:

Instead of adjusting the valve aperture one can adjust the pump speed
(RPM) to discretize the pump continuous schedule. If the pump speed is
fixed then the discretization by valve aperture adjustment is the best choice.
The advantage of the pump speed adjustment approach is that both pump
discharge and head for discrete solution will be the same as those for the
continuous solution (Figure 9.4).
When we round up the pump curve will move upward and since we
attempt to maintain the pump discharge and head obtained by the
continuous solution, hence, we decrease the pump speed (RPM) to shift the
pump curve downward such that the pump and system curves intersect at
the same discharge and head obtained by the continuous. On the other
hand, when we round down the pump curve will move downward and since
we attempt to maintain the pump discharge and head obtained by the
continuous solution, hence, we increase the pump speed (RPM) to shift the
pump curve upward such that the pump and system curves intersect at the
same discharge and head obtained by the continuous.
The criterion for rounding up or down is the change in the pump
speed (or speed ration Sr) such that whichever rounding results in smallest
∆Sr will be selected as the discrete solution. This means the deviation from
the pump optimal speed is therefore smallest. The discretization procedure
is shown in Figure 9.5. This procedure is repeated for each timestep.
However, before all we have to derive the equation from which the speed
ratio (Sr) is calculated.

Figure 9.4 : Discretization by pump speed adjustment

Pump operating speed RPM


140 Sr = = 2.7 Pumps_Sr=1
Pump nominal speed RPM nominal
120
System curveSystem Curve

2Pump_Sr=1.075
100

3Pumps_Sr=0.955
80 Hpump
H (m)

3Pumps_Sr=0.955
60

2.7Pumps_Sr=1
40

2Pumps_Sr=1.075
20

Qpump
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Q (l/s)
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 233

‰ Speed ration (Sr)

- Pump equation at nominal speed (RPMnominal) is approximated by


quadratic equation:
⇒ H nominal = a Q 2 nominal + b Q nominal + c

- If N pumps are configured in parallel, the pump equation will be:


2
⎛Q ⎞ ⎛Q ⎞
⇒ H = a ⎜ nominal ⎟ + b ⎜ nominal ⎟ + c
⎝ N ⎠ ⎝ N ⎠

- If the pump operates at speed RPM different form RPMnominal :

Affinity Law ( Nelik, 1999):


2
Q RPM H ⎛ RPM ⎞
⇒ = = Sr and = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ = Sr 2
Qnominal RPMnominal H nominal ⎝ RPMnominal ⎠

Then the pump equation is written like this:


2
H ⎛ Q ⎞ ⎛ Q ⎞
⇒ = a⎜ ⎟ + b ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + c
⎝ N × Sr ⎠ ⎝ N × Sr ⎠
2
Sr
2
⎛ Q ⎞ ⎛ Q ⎞
⇒ H = a⎜ ⎟ + b⎜ ⎟ × Sr + c × Sr
2

⎝ N ⎠ ⎝ N ⎠

-We rewrite this equation for Sr:

⇒ aˆ Sr 2
+ bˆ Sr + cˆ = 0
2
b Q ⎛ Q ⎞
Where : aˆ = c , bˆ = , cˆ = a ⎜ ⎟ − H
N ⎝ N ⎠
- By solving this quadratic equation we obtain:

− bˆ ± bˆ 2 − 4 aˆ cˆ
Sr =
2 aˆ

- Then we calculate Sr when the number of pumps is rounded up and when


it is rounded down. The approach is shown in Figure 9.5.
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 234

Figure 9.5 : Pump speed adjustment approach

Input
From Continuous solution
Ncont = number of pumps Srcont = speed ratio

Qcont = total discharge RPM nominal = pump nominal speed


Hcont = pump head
RPMmax= pump maximum speed
a, b, c = pump coefficients
RPMmin= pump minimum speed
RPM cont = pump operating

Calculations
Nup =Round-up(Ncont) Ndown =Round-down(Ncont)
aˆ = c aˆ = c
b Q cont b Q cont
bˆ = bˆ =
N up N down
2 2
⎛ Q con t ⎞ ⎛ Q con t ⎞
cˆ = a ⎜ ⎟ − H cˆ = a ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ − H
⎜ N ⎟ cont cont
⎝ up ⎠ ⎝ N down ⎠
− bˆ ± bˆ 2 − 4 aˆ cˆ − bˆ ± bˆ 2 − 4 aˆ cˆ
Sr up = Sr down =
2 aˆ 2 aˆ
Δ Sr up = Sr cont − Sr up Δ Sr down = Sr down − Sr cont
RPMup = Srup × RPMnominal RPM down = Srdown × RPM nominal

Discretization
Nup or Ndown?

If RPMup > RPMmax then Ndisc = Ndown and RPMdisc = RPMdown


Else If RPMdown < RPMmin then Ndisc = N up and RPMdisc = RPMup
Else If ΔSrdown < ΔSrup then Ndisc = Ndown and RPMdisc = RPMdown
Else If ΔSrdown > ΔSrup then Ndisc = Nup and RPMdisc = RPMup

Output
N disc and RPM disc
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 235

3. Discretization by: Timestep adjustment:

The pump optimal schedule is calculated for a given period of time,


typically one day or one week with regular timestep Ts. Instead of
adjusting the valve aperture or pump speed, we can discretize the pump
schedule by adjusting the timestep, for example, if Ncont=2.7 pumps turned
on for a given timestep (Ts) can be realized by a combination of 2 and 3
pumps switched over the timestep. The time lap for which the 2 pumps will
be turned on and the time lap for which the 3 pumps will be turned on are
calculated such that the discharged volume of water during the Ts, by a
combination of 2 and 3 pumps switched over the timestep, equals to the
discharged volume of water when 2.7 pumps are ON, and also the pump
head should be the same in both cases as much as possible.
In general, over the timestep (Ts), the pumps are operated such that
we turn on Nup=Round-up (Ncont) pumps for a certain time (tup) less than or
equal (Ts), then we turn on Ndown=Round-down(Ncont) for the rest of the
timestep (tdown=Ts-tup). As mentioned previously, tup and tdown are calculated
such that the volume of water delivered to the system and the pump head
during the timestep Ts equal that of the continuous solution.

-The discharged volume is calculated like this:

Discharged volume = Qcont × Ts = qup × tup + qdown × t down


Where:
Qcont = pumps total discharge obtained from the continuous solution
qup = pumps total discharge when Ncont rounded up
qdown = pumps total discharge when Ncont rounded down

- And since the pump head assumed to be the same:


Q cont q q
Discharge per pump = = up = down
N cont N up N down
N up N down
⇒ q up = × Q cont and q down = × Q cont
N cont N cont

- And the sum of tup and tdown must be equal to timestep Ts:

Ts = t up + t down

- We solve for tup and tdown :


10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 236

t up = ( N cont − N down ) × Ts and t down = (N up − N cont )× Ts

- If Ts =1 hour then tup will be equal to the decimal portion of the Ncont. The
discretization procedure is shown in Figure 9.6.

Figure 9.6 : Timestep adjustment approach

Input
From Continuous solution
Ncont = number of pumps

Qcont = total discharge

Ts =regular timestep

Calculations
Nup =Round-up(Ncont)

Ndown =Round-down(Ncont)

Discretization
tup = ( N cont − N down ) × Ts
tdown = (N up − N cont )× Ts

Output
( Nup , tup )

( Ndown, tdown )

It is clear that the discretization by adjusting timestep of the


optimization will produce solution with irregular timesteps.

- Yet, the post-processing approachs are useful heuristics but depend


on either a local valve at the pump discharge, the pump being able to vary
its speed, or the pump being durable with rapid switching for small
timesteps.
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 237

9.7.8 Remarks on GAMS/CONOPT Solver for optimal operational


scheduling

In the following section I will consider two network examples and


use the Pump Scheduler to optimize them. The objective here is to check
how good the GAMS/CONOPT solver is for solving an optimization
problem. Some interesting remarks have been observed and they are
presented hereafter.

1. Network configuration

Let’s consider the following network model created in FINESSE as


shown in Figure 9.7:

Figure 9.7 : Network configuration example 1


(a) (b)

dead-end pipe

The scheme in Figure 9.7a is the original network, and the scheme in
Figure 9.7b is exactly the same network except that we added “dead-end”
pipe at the suction side of the pumping station as indicated by the arrow on
the scheme. However, this dead-end pipe has a negligible length and
diameter and thus it does not change a bit the hydraulic operation of the
network. I attempted to find the optimal pump schedule for this network
using Pump Scheduler interface. The starting point (reservoirs levels,
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 238

pumps and valves settings) is the same for both configurations. The
optimization done here is continuous; this means that the number of pumps
in operation can be any real number from 0 to nmax, and thus, for example,
2.3 pumps in operation is feasible.
For the original network in Figure 9.7a, the GAMS/CONOPT solver
was not able to find the optimal solution and instead an “Infeasible
Solution” was found and the total costs were 11.247 k€, and it took 3
seconds to find this solution. For the second network in Figure 9.7b the
solver, however, was able to find the optimal solution and the total cost was
6.228 k€, and it took 8 seconds to find this optimal solution. If one tries to
change the location of the dead-end pipe the Solver will find optimal
solution if and only if the dead-end pipe is connected to one of the three
nodes that have a black mark in the center as shown on Figure 9.7b.
Let’s take also another network example and do the same thing as in
the above example. The scheme in Figure 9.8a is the original network, and
the scheme in Figure 9.8b is exactly the same network except that we
added “dead-end” pipe to the reservoir and at the suction side of the
pumping station as indicated by the arrow on the scheme. For both
configurations and the same starting point (reservoirs levels, pumps and
valves settings), the GAMS/CONOPT was able to find optimal solution for
both of them but the optimal solution was not the same solution for each.
The total costs for the network in Figure 9.8a were 542.0 €, and the total
costs for the network in Figure 9.8a were 174.0 €. If one tries to change the
location of the dead-end pipe, the Solver will find the 174.0 €-optimal
solution when the dead-end pipe is connected to any node in the network
except for the node immediately at the discharge side of the pump where
the 542.0 €-optimal solution is found.

Figure 9.8 : Network configuration example 2


(a) (b)

dead-end pipe
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 239

In spite of the fact that the two networks are hydraulically the same
but it seems that they are mathematically not the same for
GAMS/CONOPT Solver.
In parallel, these network models were sent to WSS at DMU to
reexamine them and they have made some investigations into FINESSE
and the scheduler. It was found that the main problem is that we are using
an old version of GAMS and CONOPT (1999) at SCP. While at DMU they
are currently using a later version of GAMS and CONOPT (2003). This
means that they cannot reproduce our results exactly. They got infeasible
solutions for the networks in Figure 9.7a and Figure 9.7b. However, when
they modified the starting point of the pump stations then they got an
optimal solution and the cost was 6.228 k€ for both networks in Figure 9.7a
and Figure 9.7b (the dead-end pipe had no effect), this is exactly the same
cost we got here by the old version of GAMS and CONOPT when the
dead-end pipe is added.
For the networks in Figure 9.8a and Figure 9.8b they did get optimal
solutions without modifying the starting point, and the cost was of 174.0 k€
for the network in Figure 9.8a, and it was of 161.4 € for the network in
Figure 9.8b. In this case even the results of the new version of GAMS and
CONOPT were affected by the dead-end pipe. However, they got the same
optimal solution that we got by the old version of GAMS and CONOPT
when the dead-end pipe is added (174.0 €). The dead-end pipe does not
affect the hydraulic operation of the network and should have zero flow
and zero head difference but this may not be true during the optimization
because there may be a numerical inaccuracy.

2. Starting points

Not only the network configuration affects the performance of the


GAMS/CONOPT Solver but also the starting points, i.e. the initial
hydraulic conditions including: reservoirs levels, valves apertures, number
of on-pumps, have an effect on the optimal solution. For the same networks
in Figure 9.7 and Figure 9.8 I tried different starting points by changing
randomly the valves apertures and I got sometimes “optimized solution”,
sometimes “infeasible solution”, sometimes “GAMS execution error”, and
sometimes “Error in solution”. At some starting points where an optimal
solution is found for network in Figure 9.7b the total costs were not the
same, for example: 6.228 k€ , 6.237 k€, and 6.582 k€, and for the network
in Figure 9.8a : 151.0 k€, 174.0 k€, 187.0 k€, 195.0 k€, 275.0 k€.
For the network in Figure 9.7 I, however, tried to find an optimal
solution without using the Pump Scheduler but instead I used the
simulation and the trail-and-error technique and I reached an optimal
discrete solution where the total costs were about 5.516 k€, and this is
10. CHAPTER 9 : Optimization of Water Distribution Networks 240

obviously cheaper than the costs found by GAMS/CONOPT Solver (6.228


k€). Then, I used this solution as starting point to initialize the Solver, and
the Solver was able to find an optimal solution and the total cost was about
5.767 k€; this solution is cheaper than the solutions obtained previously but
even though it is still higher than the solution obtained by trial-and-error
technique. Moreover, for this starting point the Solver was able to find the
5.767 k€-optimal solution for the network in Figure 9.7 with and even
without adding the dead-end pipe.

3. Multi-optimal solutions

As has been shown here above, the water network has multi-optimal
solutions according to GAMS Solver, and an optimal solution depends on
the system configuration and the starting point. This is a non-convex
optimization and such a problem may have multiple feasible regions and
multiple locally optimal points within each region. Even that the starting
point is very close to an optimal solution, the Solver might diverges from
the optimal solution.

4. Optimization Timestep

The optimization timestep were 3-hours for which all above optimal
solutions were found. But, when the optimization timestep was reduced to
1-hour it was hard to obtain an optimal solution for the network in Figure
9.7, while the Solver still was able to find optimal solution even when the
timestep was reduced to 1-hour for network in Figure 9.8.

5. Valve aperture

The discrete optimization searches an optimal discrete solution such


that the number of pumps in operation is necessarily integer number, but on
the other hand the valve aperture is allowed to be continuous and it lies
between 0 and 1. However, this solution is feasible providing that the
valves are fully automated, otherwise, this solution is infeasible and it will
be hard to actuate the valves continuously.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 241

CHAPTER 10
Development Program and the
10.

Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant of


Trapan Dam

10.1 Introduction

The development program proposed in the general study of hydraulic


operation and management of “Toulon Est” network performed upon the
decision of SCP to improve safety and reliability of the water-supplying
service for the eastern zone of the region of Toulon city (Engineering
Division-SCP, 2002). The primary objective is to maintain the possibility
of supplying the priority customers in the case of unavailability of water
from Les Laures or in the case of pipe bursting on the main pipeline
between Les Laures and Trapan dam and, consequently, the infrastructures
of the “Canal de Provence” upstream of the divisor of Les Laures will be
out of service for a long time. It is also a question of allowing the
organization of maintenance operation programmed during the off-peak
period of water consumption, and in particular the cleaning activities of the
Montrieux gallery. It appeared necessary to extend safety in case of a
serious incident intervening on one of the sections of the main pipeline
between Les Laures and Gratteloup. This objective implies the construction
of a pumping station at Trapan dam to mobilize the volume of this dam,
which could be associated with new water tank to be built to the right side
of Le Col Gratteloup (Figure 10.2).
The second objective is to generate electrical energy by the
possibility of equipping the station of Trapan with a reversible pump-
turbine unit, and of associating it with the Gratteloup tank to maximize net
head for the turbine. The unit associated with the Gratteloup tank also
offers opportunity of realizing a third objective that is to increase the
system supply flow to satisfy new eventual demands. This objective is
added to the agenda with the increase in the subscription of the SIDECM
intervened in 2002.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 242

10.2 Optimization of pumping stations at SCP

Before speaking about the optimization of the pumping station of


Trapan, I will briefly introduce here the optimization procedure applied at
the SCP’s control center. As most of water agencies and companies, the
SCP has requirements for an effective operation policy for the pumping
stations. The operation policy for a pumping station represents a set of
temporal rules or guidelines (pump operating times) that indicate when a
particular pump or group of pumps should be turned on and off over a
specified period of time, typically 24 hours. The optimal pump policy is the
schedule of pump operations that will yield the lowest operating cost while
satisfying the desired operational performance of the water system:
maintaining an adequate pressure range and meeting water turnover and
storage requirements.
In order to optimize the energy costs, contractual constraints must be
considered when setting an operation policy for the pumping station. These
are the contractual subscriptions and constrains of EDF that correspond to a
maximum number of pumps turned on according to the EDF tariff period.
EDF’s Scenario allows defining the tariff periods. For SCP, we
always use the same scenario. This scenario is cyclic, it is the same
whatever the day: Peak period is from 06:00 to 22:00, and Off-peak period
is from 22:00 to 06:00. Also, the year is divided into two large periods; the
winter period and the summer period. Winter period is from 1st November
to 31st Mars, and Summer period is from 1st April to 31st October. In
addition to this scenario, signals are sent from the field, they inform of the
tariff period seen locally by the station to check permanently that the pump
scheduling program is well coupled with the field and to identify
inconsistencies. Generally speaking, at SCP there are two modes for the
optimization of pumping station operation:

A. Optimization based on the water demand forecast

For this optimization mode, the operating flow of the considered


station is calculated from water demand forecasts and, hence, the volumes
of water which will be consumed from the downstream tank during a tariff
period are calculated. Two tariff periods are distinguished:

- Off-peak period: during this period the objective is to deliver the


maximum volume at the end of the period.
- Peak period: during this period the objective is to deliver the
minimum volume at the end of the period while maintaining the
volume of security in the tanks.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 243

In general manner, optimization always uses the minimum necessary


number of pumps to be turned on. The optimization algorithm can be
described as follows:

1. Creating the forecast scenario according to the statistics of the


downstream tanks (continuous flows),
2. Recovering the available drawdown volume of the tanks (the
difference between the high and the actual water level in the tank),
3. Distributing this drawdown volume between the upstream pumping
stations,
4. Calculating, at the stations level, the optimization scenarios
according to the available drawdown volume, to tariff period, and to
the pumping station constraints (allowed nominal discharge). This
algorithm is a backtracking testing the various possible adjustments
until obtaining a solution fulfilling these criteria.

B. Optimization based on the tank’s water level

In this mode, the control of the pumping station flow can


nevertheless be carried out in a local way without using forecasts. In this
case, the pumping station is directly controlled depending on the water
level in the downstream tank. Such a control can be carried out directly by
using automated controllers.
The principle is then the following. Thresholds of water levels will
trigger the start-up or the switch-off of the pumps. This system allows
maintaining, roughly, the water level in the tank within a certain limit. A
lower level or a high level is used according to whether we want to empty
the tank or we want to store water in the tank. During the off-irrigation
period in winter, the operation is based on the high level such that we refill
the tank during the off-peak tariff period of EDF (in the night), and based
on low level to empty the tank during peak tariff period of EDF (in the
day). During the peak water demand, it is necessary that the tank level is
permanently maintained at the high level.

10.3 The Pump – Turbine plant of Trapan

Two installation options are proposed for the equipment of the plant
at Trapan:
- Installation of two pumps of the same characteristics in parallel.
- Installation of three pumps in parallel with the possibility of delaying the
installation of the third pump.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 244

The technical solution suggested hereafter results from the first


research near manufacturers which made it possible to be ensured of the
existence in the market of equipment adapted to the case studied here, but
which also showed the choice is very restricted. Pre - consultation was
launched near five suppliers of pumps concerning the supply of a machine
that fulfills in the best possible conditions the desired objectives in terms of
pumping and turbining. Only one manufacturer could present a material
answering the arising problem. The pump - turbine unit proposed is a
standard reversible pump "SULZER" and no particular adaptation is
necessary for turbine-mode. It concerns a model of pump that was
developed for severe particular applications such as the pumping out of
mine with heads of 400 m, and of boiler supply with temperatures of
100C°. For the moment, SCP does not purchase this unit.
The optimal hydraulic operation points and hydraulic characteristics
of this pump - turbine unit are summarized in Table 10.1 and Figure 10.1:

Table 10.1 : Optimal operating points

Mode Pump Turbine

Discharge (l/s) 256 345

Net charge (m CE) 177 240

Nominal speed (tr/mn) 1,525 1,525

Efficiency (%) 84 83
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 245

Figure 10.1 : Hydraulic characteristics of the pump - turbine unit


11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 246

10.4 Gratteloup water tank

The functions of a new water tank to be built at Le Col Gratteloup


are:

A. Increase the system flow

It is a question of building at Gratteloup a complementary volume to


the volume already available in the existing tanks to improve the
compensation of the daily demand of the whole networks upstream of the
Gratteloup and to increase thus the system flow available downstream.

B. Energy production

The Gratteloup tank will participate in the energy production because


it will allow increasing the net head available to the turbine by allowing the
disconnection of all the networks located downstream of Trapan. The
volume necessary corresponds to the daily demand asked at La Môle in
winter that should be stored in the tank during the night; i.e. during the off-
peak period of electricity tariff (8 hours from 22h to 6h) to maintain the
continuity of the service for the networks during the turbine-mode period
(peak period of electricity tariff). If we consider only the flow subscribed
for normal use by the SIDECM, that is 330 l/s, this volume is
approximately 4,750 m3 if the water turbining is limited to 4 hours per day
(peak period only), and of 19,000 m3 if the water turbining intervenes
during the totality of the peak period (16 hours).
At this stage, we consider that the volume reserved for the turbining
will be at least 5,000 m3, to go up to approximately 20,000 m3 according to
the selected option and if we wish to maximize the energy production.

10.5 Piping and fittings

The supply in pumping mode and the rejection in turbining (Figure


10.5) will be ensured by a single siphon (Figure 10.3). It is a pipeline of
900 mm in diameter and length of 200 m approximately. It will be laid on
the bottom of the dam and its upper end at water level of 43 m. The end of
the siphon will be equipped with a strainer. It is admitted that the station
will not be able to operate in pump and turbine mode at the same time
insofar as we do not consider the doubling of the siphon; as well as of the
pump discharge pipe until the connecting point on the main supply pipe
(about 170 m pipes and fitting). A deep well of 7.5 m is dug near the dam
on the left bank at the high point of the siphon. Then, this well will
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 247

accommodate a balloon connected to a vacuum pump laid out at the high


point of the siphon for pump priming. The water level adjustment in Trapan
can be done by a winch installed on the banks with a system with cable and
pulley. An articulation is considered on the last section of the siphon
equipped with a mobile joint making it possible the pipe intake to vary
between the minimum and maximum allowable levels of Trapan (43 m and
56 m respectively). A system of vertical guide will have to be set up for
this section of mobile pipe.
The pipe connecting the station to the dam will end up in the suction
well equipped with a general isolation valve. This collector well will
include three taps for the pump-turbine groups (including one closed by a
flange corresponding to the reservation for the third group) corresponding
to the 600 mm-suction pipes of the groups with for each group an
electrically motorized valve. This valve will allow the change of the unit-
operating mode: pump or turbine. The valves will have hydraulic controls
and security mechanism. The securization will be ensured by a
counterweight that guarantees the full cut of the flow within approximately
20 seconds in the case of power outage of EDF, it is pump-overspeeding
protection. A water hammer protecting tank will be connected to the end of
the suction well.
The connection of the station and the main supply pipe is done by a
pipe in 700 mm diameter and 120 m in length at point located at about fifty
meter approximately before the arrival on the pressure dissipater tank
(Figure 10.4). The installation of isolation valve will allow the isolation of
the section Laures - Trapan to pump only towards Gratteloup tank.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 248

Figure 10.2 : Hydraulic profile of Toulon Est network


Les Laures Dissipator (295 m NGF)
Les Laures Dissipator (295 m NGF)
Elevation
Elevation ( m NGF)
( m NGF)

Cumulated distance (km)


Cumulated distance (km)
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 249

Figure 10.3 : 900mm-pipeline profile connecting the station to Trapan

Figure 10.4 : 700mm-pipeline profile connecting the station and the main
supply pipe
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 250

Figure 10.5 : General view of the project

Siphon intake

Trapan Dam

Pumping Direction

Pumping Station

Turbining Direction
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 251

10.6 Electrical equipments

The electrical motor-generator will be of the Asynchronous type. It


will be in a standard way as well driving motor as generator with the
possibility of reversing the sense of rotation. Each motor (two motors for
first phase and future one for the future third group) will have a rating
power of 1,000 kW. It is also considered two transformers of electrical
power. Each one will function like a step-down transformor in pumping
mode, and each one will also be able to function like a step-up transformor
in turbine-mode, thus these two transformors will have to be reversible.
Lastly, each unit of the reversible pump-turbine will be controlled by such
a reversible variable speed transmission.

10.7 Operating points of pump-turbine plant

After this general presentation of the development program of


“Toulon Est” and the pump-turbine plant of Trapan, we now will analyze
and simulate the different possible scenarios of the station operation in
order to determine the operating points (discharge and head) in turbine
mode and in pump mode. However, some part of this analysis was carried
out before by the Engineering Division-SCP in the framework of the
project brief and the development program of Toulon Est. We thus will
redo this analysis but with FINESSE software.

A- Turbine mode

This mode is about the electrical energy production by turbining


water coming from Les Laures by gravity by exploiting the volume
available in Trapan dam. The objective of the following analysis is to
identify the operating point of the turbine.
To find the operating point of the station in turbine mode we will
trace initially the system curve. The system curve is the difference in
altitude between the divisor at Les Laures and the Trapan dam “less” the
headloss in the main supply pipe. It depends on the turbine flow and the
derived water demands.

Hydraulic conditions and hypothesis

In this operating mode, only one turbine will be in function at


constant speed, which is the nominal speed of the machine (1,525 rpm). We
define two system curves; maximum head curve and minimum head curve.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 252

- Maximum head: corresponds to the difference between the high water


level in Les Laures (295 m) and the low water level in Trapan (45 m), less
the headloss calculated with the optimistic hypothesis of roughness (ε =0.5
mm). To maximize the head available at Trapan, it is provided that all the
tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are insolated, that no water demand
takes place on the main supply pipe, and that the delivery of La Môle (point
M) does not withdraw. The net head available at Trapan is thus maximal.

- Minimum head: corresponds to the difference between the low water


level in Les Laures (293 m) and high water level in Trapan (57 m), less the
headloss calculated with the pessimistic hypothesis of roughness (ε =3.0
mm), and with a flow delivered on the way taken equal to 50 l/s and
transported up to approximately 5 km downstream from Golf Hôtel to
represent the winter demand, which can not be provided from a tank during
the turbining periods. The net head available to Trapan is thus minimal.

The two cases are modeled and simulated using FINESSE. Only the
following components are kept and modeled in FINESSE to trace the
curves:

- Les Laures divisor modeled as fixed head reservoir.


- Trapan dam modeled as fixed head reservoir.
- Main supply pipe from Les Laures to Trapan.

The two system curves issued from this simulation and the
characteristic curve of the turbine provided by the manufacturer are
overlapped and the intersections of both give the operating points. While
referring to the graph below (Figure 10.6) we find that the nominal
operating points of the turbine are:

- Maximum head: The flow is 341 l/s (1,227 m3/h), the head available at
Trapan is 235 m, and the efficiency is 83% (from Figure 10.1).

- Minimum head: The flow is 322 l/s (1,166 m3/h), the head available at
Trapan is 215 m, and the efficiency is 82% (from Figure 10.1).
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 253

Figure 10.6 : Turbine operating points

300
Turbine
Turbine VV=1525rpm
= 1525rpm
Head_Maxi
charge nette maxi
250 charge nette mini
Head_Mini

200
Head (m)

150

100

50
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
Flow (l/s)

This analysis shows that the operating points of the turbine are
naturally almost at its best performance.

B- Pump mode

The first function which the pump-turbine station will have to


provide is that maintaining water supply of the customers located between
the divisor of Les Laures and Trapan dam in the case of unavailability of
water from Les Laures or in the case of pipe bursting on the main pipeline
between Les Laures and Trapan. In view of the system current hydraulic
state, there is no any possibility of emergency supply. From the point of
view of system safety, we can consider that the station will also allow
minimizing the incidents risks because it will make it possible or more
convenient the maintenance interventions. Currently certain operations
prove to be impossible because of the duration of the water cuts; it is
particularly the case for Montrieux gallery cleaning, the guard valves on
the gallery at Les Laures, and the sectional valves equipping the main
supply pipe, and also the pipes flushing operations.
The pumping station will function according to three distinct modes
which we will be modeled separately hereafter. It will be equipped with
three pumps in parallel, but in the first phase only two groups will be
installed.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 254

1) Pumping to Les Laures

It is the case of pumping water to Les Laures in emergency cases; we


pump water back from Trapan to Les Laures divisor.

Hydraulic conditions and hypothesis

In this operating mode we will simulate the operation of the station


by changing at the same time the number of operating groups and the
rotation speed of the pumps. We define two system curves; maximum head
curve and minimum head curve.

- Piezometric conditions maximal: corresponds to the difference between


high water level in Les Laures (295 m) and low water level in Trapan (45
m), plus the headloss calculated with the pessimistic hypothesis of
roughness (ε =3.0 mm). All the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are
isolated.

- Piezometric conditions minimal: corresponds to the difference between


low water level in Les Laures (293 m) and high water level in Trapan (57
m), plus the headloss calculated with the optimistic hypothesis of
roughness (ε =0.5 mm), and with all the tanks between Les Laures and
Trapan are isolated.

Only the following components are kept and modeled in FINESSE to


trace the curves:

- Les Laures divisor modeled as fixed head reservoir.


- Trapan dam modeled as fixed head reservoir.
- Main supply pipe from Les Laures to Trapan.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 255

Table 10.2 : Pumping to Les Laures


Piezometric conditions maximal
1 Pump 2 Pumps 3 Pumps
Speed (rpm)
Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%)
1,000 # # # # # # # # #
1,100 # # # # # # # # #
1,200 # # # # # # # # #
1,300 # # # # # # # # #
1,400 # # # # # # # # #
1,500 # # # # # # # # #
1,600 38 250 23 66 251 20 84 252 17
1,700 207 259 78 295 269 65 330 274 53
1,800 272 266 83 435 291 77 483 301 66
1,900 327 273 83 524 310 81 608 331 73
2,000 375 281 82 603 329 83 714 361 77

Table 10.3 : Pumping to Les Laures


Piezometric conditions minimal
1 Pump 2 Pumps 3 Pumps
Speed (rpm)
Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%)
1,000 # # # # # # # # #
1,100 # # # # # # # # #
1,200 # # # # # # # # #
1,300 # # # # # # # # #
1,400 # # # # # # # # #
1,500 # # # # # # # # #
1,600 136 239 64 210 243 53 250 245 44
1,700 243 244 82 410 260 77 475 268 68
1,800 303 249 84 516 273 82 639 293 77
1,900 356 254 82 607 288 83 754 315 80
2,000 403 259 80 690 302 83 858 338 82
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 256

This analysis shows that (Table 10.2 and Table 10.3):


- The pump rotation speed must be approximately equal or higher than
1,600 rpm so that water reaches the divisor at Les Laures.
- The maximum efficiency obtained at speeds between 1,800 rpm and
2,000 rpm.
- According to characteristics of the main pipe Laures-Trapan and also
according to water-hammer protection analysis (Engineering Division-SCP,
2002) the maximum operation pressure should not exceed the authorized
maximum pressure 300 m (30 bars). We see that the maximum speed is
approximately 1,800 rpm to fulfill this constraint.

2) Pumping to Gratteloup:

It is the case of pumping water to the new tank at Gratteloup in order


to increase the flow available downstream of Gratteloup.

Hydraulic conditions and hypothesis

In this operating mode we carry out the simulation as in Les Laures


case, and we define also two system curves; the maximum head curve and
the minimum head curve.

- Piezometric conditions maximal: corresponds to the difference between


high water level in Gratteloup (assumed level: 170 m) and low water level
in Trapan (45 m), plus the headloss calculated with the pessimistic
assumption of roughness (ε =3.0 mm).

- Piezometric conditions minimal: corresponds to the difference between


low water level in Gratteloup (160 m) and high water level in Trapan (57
m), plus the headloss calculated with the optimistic assumption of
roughness (ε =0.5 mm).

Only the following components are kept and modeled in FINESSE to


trace the curves:

- Trapan dam modeled as fixed head reservoir.


- Gratteloup tank modeled as fixed head reservoir.
- Discharge pipe towards La Môle.

This analysis shows that (Table 10.4 and Table 10.5):


- The pump rotation speed must be approximately equal or higher than
1,100 rpm so that water reaches the Gratteloup tank.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 257

Table 10.4 : Pumping to Gratteloup


Piezometric conditions maximal
1 Pump 2 Pumps 3 Pumps
Speed (rpm)
Q (l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q (l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q (l/s) H (m) θ (%)
1,000 # # # # # # # # #
1,100 # # # # # # # # #
1,200 154 127 79 272 131 75 323 134 66
1,300 221 129 84 397 138 83 517 147 80
1,400 274 131 81 494 145 83 645 160 83
1,500 321 134 77 579 153 81 758 173 84
1,600 364 136 72 658 161 79 861 187 83
1,700 405 139 68 732 170 76 960 202 82
1,800 444 142 64 803 179 74 1,053 218 81
1,900 482 145 60 872 189 71 1,144 235 80
2,000 519 148 57 939 199 69 1,233 252 79

Table 10.5 : Pumping to Gratteloup


Piezometric conditions minimal
1 Pump 2 Pumps 3 Pumps
Speed (rpm)
Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%)
1,000 # # # # # # # # #
1,100 150 104 81 278 107 79 370 110 75
1,200 214 106 83 400 112 84 542 119 83
1,300 267 107 79 497 116 82 675 127 83
1,400 312 108 74 583 121 78 794 137 82
1,500 355 110 68 663 126 74 903 146 80
1,600 395 111 64 739 132 71 1,007 157 78
1,700 434 113 59 812 138 67 1,107 169 76
1,800 471 115 56 883 144 64 1,203 180 74
1,900 509 117 52 952 151 62 1,298 192 72
2,000 545 119 49 1,019 158 60 1,390 205 70
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 258

3) Pumping to Golf Hôtel:

This case corresponds to the recycling of turbined water into Golf


Hôtel tank.

Hydraulic conditions and hypothesis

In this operating mode we carry out the simulation as in the above


cases, and we define also two system curves; the maximum head curve and
the minimum head curve.

- Piezometric conditions maximal: corresponds to the difference between


high water level in Golf Hôtel (171 m) and low water level in Trapan (45
m), plus the headloss calculated with the pessimistic assumption of
roughness (ε =3.0 mm).

- Piezometric conditions minimal: corresponds to the difference between


low water level in Golf Hôtel (164 m) and high water level in Trapan (57
m), plus the headloss calculated with the optimistic assumption of
roughness (ε =0.5 mm).

Only the following components are kept and modeled in FINESSE to


trace the curves:

- Trapan dam modeled as fixed head reservoir.


- Golf Hôtel tank modeled as fixed head reservoir.
- Discharge pipe towards Golf Hôtel.

This analysis shows that (Table 10.6 and Table 10.7):


- The pump rotation speed must be approximately equal or higher than
1,100 rpm so that water reaches the Golf Hôtel tank.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 259

Table 10.6 : Pumping to Golf Hôtel


Piezometric conditions maximal
1 Pump 2 Pumps 3 Pumps
Speed (rpm)
Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%)
1,000 # # # # # # # # #
1,100 # # # # # # # # #
1,200 142 130 77 203 134 64 229 137 52
1,300 208 135 83 336 149 80 386 156 70
1,400 259 139 82 422 162 83 503 177 77
1,500 304 145 79 496 175 84 594 196 80
1,600 345 150 76 565 190 83 678 218 82
1,700 385 156 72 630 205 82 756 240 83
1,800 422 162 69 692 222 81 832 264 83
1,900 458 168 66 752 239 80 904 289 83
2,000 494 175 64 811 257 79 975 315 84

Table 10.7 : Pumping to Golf Hôtel


Pumping to Golf Hôtel
B - Piezometric conditions minimal
1 Pump 2 Pumps 3 Pumps
Speed (rpm)
Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%) Q ( l/s) H (m) θ (%)
1,000 # # # # # # # # #
1,100 131 109 77 200 112 67 233 114 56
1,200 198 112 84 341 122 82 426 130 77
1,300 251 115 81 433 131 84 543 145 81
1,400 296 118 77 513 141 83 645 160 83
1,500 338 122 73 587 151 81 739 176 84
1,600 378 125 69 657 162 79 826 193 83
1,700 419 129 64 723 173 77 912 212 83
1,800 453 133 61 788 185 75 994 231 83
1,900 489 138 58 851 198 73 1,074 252 82
2,000 524 142 56 912 212 72 1,152 274 81
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 260

Figure 10.7 : Operation of the Trapan pumping station at different conditions

Golf Hôtel_maxi
Les Laures_mini
300 Golf Hôtel_mini
1pump_1800

3pump_1800
Les Laures_maxi
Gratteloup_maxi
250 2pumps_1800
Head (m)

3pumps_1525
200 2pumps_1525
1pump_1525 Gratteloup_mini

150 1pump_3000

3pumps_3000
2pumps_3000
100
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Discharge (l/s)
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 261

10.8 NPSH (Net Positive Suction Head)

Pump has a maximum aspiration capacity which is the value of the


vacuum that it can produce. This characteristic varies according to the type
and the design of the pump. Theoretically, the maximum height of
aspiration, in a cavity where prevails the absolute vacuum, is equal to the
atmospheric pressure, i.e. 10.33 m at sea level. It decreases gradually when
altitude increases. This height is also limited by the physical properties of
pumped liquid.
NPSH is simply a measure permitting to quantify the total suction
head at the pump inlet to avoid pump cavitation. Thus, the NPSH is defined
as the absolute pressure at the pump inlet expressed in meters of liquid,
plus the velocity head, minus the vapor pressure of the liquid at pumping
temperature, and corrected to the elevation of the pump centerline. NPSH is
always positive.

‰ NPSH Required (NPSHr)

This is the minimum head required to stop the pump from caviating.
NPSHr is a function of the pump design and is determined based on actual
pump test by the vendor. Pump manufacturer's curves normally provide this
information. The NPSHr is independent of the liquid density. The NPSHr
varies with speed and capacity within any particular pump.

‰ NPSH Available (NPSHa)

NPSHa represents the pressure of the liquid over the vapor pressure
at the pump inlet and is determined entirely by the system preceding the
pump, and it depends on:

- Atmospheric pressure at the suction liquid level (Patm = 10.3 m).


- Total headloss (friction plus fitting) in the pump suction pipe (Psuc).
- Vapor pressure of the pumped liquid (Pvap= 0.1252 m at 10°C, Pvap=
0.2387 m at 20°C).
- Static suction pressure i.e. the vertical distance between the impeller
centerline and the suction liquid level (Pz).

NPSHa = Patm – Pvap – Psuc - Pz

‰ NPSH for “Toulon-Est” pumping station

The curve of Figure 10.8 shows us the NPSH available versus the
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 262

pump total flow. We saw that in the case of pumping towards Les Laures
the maximum rotation speed is approximately 1,800 rpm and the flow
through one pump is 300 l/s. At this operating point the NPSHr is
approximately 17 m and the total flow should not thus exceed 900 l/s (from
Figure 10.1). In all cases the flow is limited voluntarily to 300 l/s by group
for reasons of NPSHa.
The Net Positive Suction Head available to the pump inlet must be
above the Net Positive Suction Head required to prevent damage caused by
cavitation.

Figure 10.8 : NPSH – Toulon Est pumping station

17.5

17.4

17.3
(m)(mCE)

17.2
disponible

17.1
NPSHNPSHa

17.0

16.9

16.8

16.7

16.6
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300
Débit (lps)
Flow (l/s)

10.9 Reversible pump-turbine plant: operation principles and


scenarios

Here, we will present the operation principles and scenarios of the


future station according to the general study and the development program
of Toulon Est.

1) Emergency Operation

It is the main motive of the project, which corresponds to pumping


back from Trapan dam up to Les Laures divisor. We speak of course about
pumping mode only. Several cases can arise:
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 263

A. Pipe bursting at Les Laures level

The pumping station must be able to pump back up to divisor. It is


the operation obtained by one or two pumps at 1,800 rpm where the flow
available to Les Laures is around 270 l/s to 300 l/s (1 pump) or 450 l/s to
510 l/s (2 pumps) with no demand taken out on the way.
It had been considered the successive isolation of the tanks by
closings the valves on the main pipe to limit the pumping head and to fill
the tanks the ones after the others. It had been also suggested the possibility
of limiting the pumping head to the highest tank, which is Fenouillet,
located approximately 80 m below Les Laures. But to simplify the
operation, the following rules are considered:

• Starting the first pump with 1,800 rpm at first level, that is the high
level of Les Laures.
• Starting the second pump with 1,800 rpm at a second level, that is
the low level of Les Laures.
• Controlling the filling flows of each tank by means of the
equipments that already exist and recently renovated. Choices will
have to be made knowing that the maximum flow provided by the
station in this configuration is of 500 l/s.

B. Pipe bursting at any level between Les Laures and Trapan dam

The tanks located upstream the burst can be supplied by gravity from
Les Laures. Downstream, the station must ensure the supply of the tanks
(and possible customers). In this case the pumping head is adjusted by the
variable speed drive.

C. Pipe bursting at Les Laures and at some level between Les


Laures and Trapan

This case would justify the implementation of a device controlling


the tanks emptying flows, those remaining only the sources of water. It
would be then possible to manage these tanks and allow the filling of the
one by the other to prevent for example that a tank is emptied quickly
whereas the others still have reserve.

2) Normal operation: pumping-turbining

The principles held in “Toulon Est” general study are to turbine in


winter when the energy bought by EDF is most expensive and to recycle
water by pumping in summer when the cost of purchase of electricity for
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 264

SCP is the least expensive. This means that we fill the dam in winter and
we empty it in summer. The main problem which is opposed to turbine
permanently is that recycling would become impossible because the
turbined volume would be greater than the pumped volume. Moreover it is
held in the general study in order to optimize the energy generation the
pumping head is limited up to Golf Hôtel tank. Recycling is done then by
the various flows taken out the dam:

- Flow taken out by the CEO.


- Flow pumped to the Golf Hôtel tank.
- Flow pumped to La Môle.

The considered control is, of course, different according to whether


we are in pump mode or in turbine mode.

Turbine mode

Standard operation will be to ensure a constant rotation speed equal


the nominal speed of the machine, 1,525 rpm in turbine mode. The variable
speed drive of the concerned machine will generate the nominal tensions
and frequencies of the engine: 690 V, 50 Hz. The evolution of turbined
flow will then follow roughly the head-flow curve of the turbine. In fact in
this case, the variable speed drive acts only as an intermediary between
EDF and the engine. The variable speed drive provides thus engine
protection, speed control which must be constant, and harmonics filtering.
In turbine mode, we expect to isolate the tanks between Les Laures
and Trapan. The net head available at Trapan is maximum and thus
controlled. If for various reasons the head do not follow any more the
expected system curves, for example when necessary to fill any of the
tanks, there is a possibility of adapting the rotation speed of the turbine to
remain permanently at maximum efficiency. In a very simple way, the
variable speed drive then do not generates any more 50 Hz but a slightly
lower frequency; produces an operation curve (head vs. flow) slightly
higher and more adapted in term of output efficiency at low turbined flow.
In this case the variable speed drive ensures a real speed variation.

Pumps mode

Pumping under normal operation corresponds mainly to recycling


part of turbined water in winter and where necessary to the increase in the
system flow of the supply pipe between Trapan and La Môle. Within the
framework of pumping, it is a matter of making place for the next turbining
season. Volume to be pumped is estimated at 0.7 Mm3. It is estimated in
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 265

function of the rainfall and the evaporation losses each year in Trapan.
Pumping is done mainly towards the Golf Hôtel tank and possibly towards
the delivery point at La Môle when this asks for water.
When the flow must be pumped toward the two branches (Golf
Hôtel and La Môle), the basic solution is to maintain a constant water level
in the Golf Hôtel tank which is slightly higher in terms of system curve
than La Môle.
But we are then confronted with the supply of small possible flows
which would be asked by La Môle. When the high level of Golf Hôtel tank
is reached, the station stops and the difference in elevation between the
water level in Golf Hôtel and Gratteloup is too weak to guarantee the
supply of La Môle. The station not being able to provide a flow lower than
150 l/s, this simple operation is not a solution.
Another constraint is the pressure at Gratteloup: the latter is the
limiting factor for supply pipe flow between Trapan and La Môle. In the
case of the reinforcement of the flow of this pipe, the station will have to
maintain a minimum pressure at Gratteloup (1.0 bar).
The solution suggested is as follows. The principle is the
organization each summer an "emptying campaign" for Trapan,
corresponding to an approximate period of one month during which the
valve on the main pipe at point G (Figure 10.2) is closed (the connecting
point to Mont Redon tank). The upstream section to this valve is supplied
by gravity and the downstream section by the pumping station for only
Golf Hôtel tank. The interest is to limit the valve operation to one closing
and one opening per season, and surely to at least limit the pumping head to
the Golf Hôtel tank. The operation is as follow:

• Closing the existing sectional valve (motorized and remote-


controlled) at point G to pump only in Golf Hôtel and to isolate the
tanks upstream to this point.

• Controlling an optimal pressure at the point H, departure towards


Golf Hôtel, by the pumping station.

• Controlling the valve at the departure towards Golf Hôtel (recently


renovated) to flow close to 200 l/s.
- The station should not stop at the high water level in Golf Hôtel to be
able to provide the possible small demands (between 0 and 150 l/s)
asked by La Môle. The 200 l/s flow is informative and corresponds
to the summer continuous emptying flow of Golf Hôtel in 2002. It
also corresponds to the minimum flow provided by a pump at
maximum efficiency. In absolute terms, we fix the minimum flow
that can be provided by the station to 150 l/s, knowing that efficiency
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 266

loss can be observed.

- Any higher flow asked by La Môle can be provided by the station


and thus simplifies the operation insofar as the volume in Trapan is
recycled more quickly.

- In this configuration, the maximum flow that can be provided by the


station is about 610 l/s, covering the contractual flow of La Môle
(410 l/s) and supplying the Golf Hôtel (200 l/s).

• Safety: in the case of station breakdown, the valve at point G can


always be reopened. In addition we hold the possibility of pumping
towards the other tanks in case of too low flow asked by the Golf
Hôtel networks.

• Booster mode: in the case of pressure drop beyond a certain limit at


Gratteloup, this pressure sent back to the pumping station which will
have to control a pressure setting at Gratteloup.

3) The Choice of Trapan useful volume

Useful volume of Trapan is that will be used within the framework


of pumping-turbining between a minimum and maximum water level in
Trapan. The conclusion of the general study showed that the larger this
volume; the more we favor the energy balance between the income of the
generator driven by the turbine and the expense of the motor-driven pump.
However, the larger this volume; the more the operating constraints
increase, the more the quality of water in the dam is uncertain; from where
the obligation to find a compromise between various parameters. The
general study clarifies here below the procedure leading to this
compromise:

1- The lowest water level in normal operation is 47 m, and the highest


water level is 57 m. By taking one meter on these two levels for safety, the
minimum and maximum dam water levels are 48 m and 56 m. The
corresponding useful volume is 1.7 Mm3 (at Level of 56 m) – 0.4 Mm3 (at
level of 48 m) = 1.3 Mm3.

2- The average net inflow (rainfall – evaporation – leakage) is estimated at


about 0.3 Mm3 a year as described in the general study. We thus obtains the
useful volume of 1.3 Mm3 – 0.3 Mm3 = 1.0 m3.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 267

3- The study on the water quality in the dam brings more elements on the
validity of these hypotheses.

• Raising Trapan water level

The operation of the unit as turbine will be possible in the beginning


of November, which at that time corresponded to the seasonal peak period
tariff of EDF, where the level of Trapan will have to be at 48 m. The
objective is to deliver at the end of March the million m3 through the
turbine. The turbining will take place 6 hours per day until end of Mars,
from 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM and from 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM. Thus, we get
entirely benefit from the sale of energy during peak period.
The tanks which will be isolated during these time bounds will run
out whereas until now the levels were maintained constant. It was verified
for each tank that the volumes taken by the networks during these hours, in
particular from 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM, could be provided.
Refilling the tanks will be ensured by gravity from Les Laures during
the off-peak period, where there is non-turbining, and controlled by the
installations renovated recently at each departure point to the tank.

• Lowering Trapan water level

In summer at the beginning of April to the end of October, the water


level must be lowered up to 48 m. The preceding studies show that the
CEO Company downstream Trapan takes on average 0.6 Mm3 per year
mainly during this period.
The flow to be recycled by pumping is thus: 1.0 Mm3 (turbined) +
0.3 Mm3 (average net inflow) – 0.6 Mm3 (CEO water demand) = 0.7 Mm3.
This volume will then be pumped towards La Môle or Golf Hôtel (the
pumping conditions are similar), in certain manner since the summer
continuous flow taken only by the networks downstream from Golf Hôtel is
200 l/s. Pumping will be carried out according to the principle of the
"emptying campaign" exposed previously.

• Winter water demand available for turbining

According to the flow records at the cenral room (CGTC) provided


by Les Laures flowmeter during December for the previous years
illustrating the quantity of the total water demand in winter for Toulon Est,
we observe a daily demand greater than 200 l/s, that is at least 2.6
Mm3/year. A fraction of this volume could be turbined in addition to the
volume available in Trapan. It is then possible to optimize the energy
production by turbining each day more time and by pumping the same day
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 268

the additional volume. In fact, we turbine a significant volume of the


demand in winter during peak period, and recycling this volume during off-
peak period in the night.

4) Influence on Trapan water quality

In spite of the absence of the results of the water quality study, the
various operating modes of the station are re-examined below by analyzing
their impact on the water quality.

• Turbine mode

During the turbining, the water level in Trapan rises up from 48 m to


56 m, the only constraint is not to suspend the sediments which rest on the
bottom. In this optics it is interesting to raise the end of the siphon as the
water level in the dam rises up and to maintain a constant height between
the end of the siphon and the water level, height which will have to be
sufficient to prevent surface current form being created.

• Pump mode

During the water pumping in summer, the level drops down regularly
to 48 m. The intake pipe must follow this drop. The intake level will be
optimized by taking into account the main water quality constraints in the
summer:

- A strong temperature variation exists between the surface and the


bottom. The water temperature at the CEO Company should not exceed
25°. This temperature is reached regularly in summer near to the
surface.

- Another strong gradient exists, but in the opposite direction, regarding


the dissolved metals content and in particular the manganese which is a
major constraint because it is difficult to be treated. The manganese
content is null on the surface and increases with the depth.

• Emergency mode

Under emergency operating conditions, pumping is subjected to the


same constraints as in pumping under normal conditions. Only the pumping
head and the extent of the supplied networks increase. The pumping under
normal condition is limited by the minimum admissible water level of 48 m
in Trapan. In emergency mode, this minimum admissible water level could
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 269

be violated implying high difficulties management.

™ Water quality improvement

In addition to the operation modes discussed here, we consider


simply that it is possible to implement a pumping and turbining during the
summer aiming only at improving water quality of Trapan subjected to the
constraints mentioned previously. The principle is as follow:

By turbining: bringing fresh water and its dissolved oxygen and thus:
-Reducing the manganese content.
-Limiting water temperature variations in every day.

By pumping: tacking out surface water from Trapan and thus:


- Recycling the volume brought by turbining.
- Improving water quality by mixing.

Finally the considered operation in this case does not bring any
additional constraint in comparison to the normal pumping-turbining
operation exposed previously. We consider a simplified pumping-turbining
such that:

- It is not necessary to close all the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan to
optimize the turbining.

- It is not necessary, and voluntarily we do not consider optimizing


pumping towards Golf Hôtel tank. The considered operation is to maintain
one or two pumps at 1,800 rpm to reach the maximum height and the
maximum flow of 300 l/s or 600 l/s. No valve operation on the main pipe is
thus necessary.

10.10 Reversible pump-turbine plant scheduling using FINESSE


Pump Scheduler (CONOPT/GAMS)

One of the most difficult problems encountered in the optimization


of the network of “Toulon Est” is the presence of the turbine. This new
hydraulic element was not included in the earlier versions of FINESSE and
it has been thus implemented into the later version of FINESSE modeling
environment by DMU upon our request within the framework of the
technical assistance contract and for the purpose of this research work.
However, this did not completely solve the problem and this is because of
that:
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 270

B. The pump - turbine unit proposed is a standard reversible pump


"SULZER" model and there will be three units in parallel, but in the first
phase only two units will be installed, and they will share the same
suction pipe. This means that the pump and turbine are physically the
same element and we change the operating mode by reversing the
rotation direction of the impeller, and this type of operations is
programmatically complex to be modeled and to be optimized too. In
FINESSE, the pump-turbine unit of “Toulon Est” is modeled by adding
two elements connected in parallel, one for the pump and the other for
the turbine, and in fact this does not represent the real system. From
optimization point of view, using the GAMS/CONOPT Solver to solve
this system; the solver will possibly find a solution such that the pump
and the turbine are turned on in the same time where part or all of the
pumped water reenters the turbine, and also where part or all of the
turbined water will reenter the pump as shown in Figure 10.10. This
because of the characteristic of EDF electricity tariff (Table 10.9) where
the selling price from EDF is less than the buying price to EDF.

C. We also want to manage the operation of the water tanks, pump-turbine


plant, and the Trapan dam over the year not over 24 hours (or one
week).

D. In addition, as we introduced the future operation scenarios of this


pumping station in section (10.8), the pump-mode under normal
operation corresponds to pumping water mainly up to Golf Hôtel tank at
Point H (Figure 10.9) and possibly towards the supply point at La Môle
when this asks for water, and thus the system upstream Point H will be
isolated and no water will be available from Les Laures to the system
downstream Point H. Contrary to the turbine-mode, Les Laures is the
main source of water to the turbine and thus it can not be isolated from
the system.

In fact, if we suppose that the real system consists of pump and


turbine as two separated elements like the system in Figure 10.9 and the
water from Les Laures is available, and then we look for the optimal
solution of this system. In this case, there is no need to any optimizer to
solve the problem because the optimal solution is simply that the pumping
station is shut down and the turbine is turned on along the optimization
period and the reservoirs filled up with water coming from Les Laures
upstream the system, and thus we produce energy and earn money.
However, the Toulon Est model shown in Figure 10.9 includes pump
and turbine and the FINESSE Pump Scheduler has been used to schedule
the pump-turbine unit and infeasible solution was found with pumping and
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 271

turbining in the same time, or sometimes “GAMS execution error” message


was obtained at the end of the optimization for different starting points, and
as we have seen in the previous chapter (section 9.7.6); GAMS/CONOPT
Solver is sensitive to the selected starting point.

Figure 10.9 : FINESSE model for “Toulon Est”

(a) (b)

Qtrapan Qtrapan

Qturbine Qpump Qturbine Qpump

Turbine Pump Turbine Pump

Qturbine Qpump Qturbine Qpump


Qsystem Qsystem

Figure 10.10 : Pumping and turbining in the same time

Nevertheless, we split the model in Figure 10.9 into two models; one
for the pump and the other for the turbine, and we will try to estimate the
power absorbed by the pump and the power recovered by the turbine under
normal operation conditions. We need to know the system water demands
and thus we use here the average demands (rounded up to the nearest ten)
recorded during the summer of 2005 as shown in Table 10.5:
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 272

Table 10.8 : 2005 Summer Demand for Toulon Est


Point 2005 Summer Demand (l/s)
Point B - CEO 100
Point C - PIERRASCAS 200
Point E 150
Point F - FENOUILLET 100
Point G - MONT REDON 100
Point H - GOLF HOTEL 250
Point K 60
Point T - TRAPAN 80
Point M - LA MÔLE 270

And we added around thirty liters per second derived along the
mainline for the non-recorded demand. Also, we need to know the
electricity tariff. The electricity tariff used for development program and
the general study of hydraulic operation of “Toulon Est” will be used as in
Table 10.6. In fact, this tariff is only an informative one because the
electricity tariff for this project is not yet defined for the moment.

Table 10.9 : EDF Electricity tariff (€/kWhr)


Period Selling price from EDF Buying price to EDF
Peak (06:00 - 22:00) 0.13 0.19
Off-peak (22:00 - 06:00) 0.04 0.06

10.10.1 Pump-mode

As mentioned previously, the pump-mode under normal operation


corresponds to pumping water mainly up to Golf Hôtel tank at Point H and
possibly towards Gratteloup tank as show in Figure 10.11a where only the
pump and the system downstream point H were kept.
A good starting point has been selected to initiate the optimization
process and, for this starting point, the number of pumps turned on is
discrete. In the pump constrains the minimum number of pumps is set equal
to 0 and the maximum number of pumps is set equal to 2.
The Pump Scheduler was used to optimize the simple system in
Figure 10.11a and, nevertheless, it was not able to find optimal solution.
On the other hand, the system shown in Figure 10.11b is the same as in
Figure 10.11a except that we added a dead-end pipe to the node at point T
as indicated on the schema, and the Pump Scheduler was used again to
optimize this system and the same starting point was used. Even though the
two systems are, hydraulically, the same the Scheduler was able to find an
optimal solution in the second case. Fore this obtained optimal solution the
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 273

number of pumps turned on is continuous solution since we do not have the


SBB Solver (Figure 10.12).

Figure 10.11 : Toulon Est in pump-mode under normal operation

(a)

(b)

Dead-end pipe

Figure 10.12 : Pump control – Pump optimal continuous solution


11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 274

The volume of water pumped from Trapan was around 36,000


3
m /day and the pump absorbed power was around 15.57 MWhr/day, and
since the total volume of water that would be pumped from Trapan is about
0.7 Mm3/year, then the total power absorbed is:

700,000 m 3 /year
× 15.57 MWhr/day ≈ 302.75 MWhr/year
36,000 m 3 /day

However, the operation costs in the case of continuous solution were


around 1.77 k€ while they were around 1.78 k€ in the case of discrete
solution. This problem of “dead-end pipe” was previously introduced in
Chapter 9.

10.10.2 Turbine-mode

The standard operation will be to ensure a constant rotation speed


equal the nominal speed of the machine, 1,525 rpm in turbine mode, and
we expect to isolate the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan as explained
in section 10.8. The Schema in Figure 10.13a represents the system in
turbine-mode, and the Gratteloup tank, which has a volume of 20,000 m3,
can assure continuous water supply to La Môle of 270 l/s for 20 hours.
We selected a good starting point to initialize the optimizer and the
number of turbine turned on is always one. In the turbine constrains the
minimum number of turbines is set equal to 1 and the maximum number of
turbine also is set equal to 1. This means that the turbine is turned on all the
time to maximize the power production.
As in the pump-mode, the optimizer was not able to find an optimal
solution for the system in Figure 10.13a, even though it was able to find an
optimal solution for the same system when adding the dead-end pipe as
shown in Figure 10.13b.
For this optimal solution, the optimal “costs” were around 2.48 k€,
and the turbined water into Trapan dam was around 23,000 m3/day and the
turbine recovered power was around 15.50 MWhr/day, and since the total
volume of water that would be turbined into Trapan dam is about 1.0
Mm3/year, then the total power recovered is:

1,000,000 m 3 /year
× 15.50 MWhr/day ≈ 673.90 MWhr/year
23,000 m 3 /day
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 275

Figure 10.13 : Toulon Est in turbine-mode under normal operation

(a)

(b)

Dead-end pipe

We will consider another scenario for the turbine-mode such that the
tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are not isolate as shown in Figure
10.14. As before, we selected a good starting point and, however, no
optimal solution was found. Here, we did not add dead-end pipe but rather
the valve and the pipe, which are pointed out by the arrows as shown in
Figure 10.14, are switched round with each other, and then an optimal
solution was obtained.
In this scenario, the optimal “costs” were around 2.35 k€, and the
turbined water into Trapan dam was around 22,300 m3/day and the turbine
recovered power was around 14.60 MWhr/day, and thus the total power
recovered is:

1,000,000 m 3 /year
× 14.60 MWhr/day ≈ 654.70 MWhr/year
22,300 m 3 /day

And this is clearly less than the power recovered when the tanks
were isolated.
11. CHAPTER 10 : Development Program and the Reversible Pump-Turbine Plant 276

Figure 10.14 : Toulon Est in turbine-mode and water tanks between Les
Laures and Trapan are not isolated

Optimal solution when these two


elements are switched round!

Finally, these eventual scenarios that present the future operation of


the pumping station show us that the power recovered by the turbine can be
significantly higher than the power absorbed by the pumps, and thus this
means that the benefits form selling the generated power will, at least,
recover the pumping costs.
12. CHAPTER 11 : Summary and Conclusions 277

CHAPTER 11
11. Summary and Conclusions

11.1 Summary

In this research work we dealt with the operation management and


optimization of water distribution networks. The water quality issue was
out of the scope of this work.
The operation management and optimization of water distribution
networks led us to approach other relevant topics such: modeling and
simulation methods and software (Chapters 3, 4, and 5), SCADA system
(Chapter 6), network calibration (Chapter 7), water demand prediction
(Chapter 8), and optimization principles and methods (Chapter 9). Indeed,
each one of these topics has vital role in the efficient management and
operation of the water distribution network. We need modeling and
simulation tools to construct a model which can be considered as an
abstraction and simplified representation of the hydraulic behavior of the
real system and must be calibrated to ensure that the model simulated
performance reasonably agrees with real system performance over a wide
range of operating conditions. Also, we need to know the system water
production or demand which is the driving force behind the hydraulic
dynamics occurring in water distribution systems, and we need rules,
guides, and tools to manage, improve, and optimize the system operation.
SCADA system, if one exists, will help the manager to follow the state of
the system in real-time and remotely initiate the operation of system
elements such as pumps and valves from a single central location. This, in
turn, will reduce operational staffing levels through automation or remote
control, leading to efficient management of the system.
At Canal de Provence Company in France, where this research work
was carried out, a water supply network was selected as a case-study where
a new reversible pump-turbine plant will be constructed. This network is
known as “Toulon Est” network and presented in Chapter 2, and the new
reversible pump-turbine plant was introduced in Chapter 10. FINESSE
software was used as our main modeling, simulation, prediction, and
optimization tool.
12. CHAPTER 11 : Summary and Conclusions 278

11.2 General conclusions

‰ Before the commencement of the overall management and


optimization process of an existing water distribution system, the
system is in its initial state that is the “As-is” and “Non-optimized”
state, and by the end of this process the system will come to its final
aimed state that is the “To-be” and “Optimized” state. In order to
bring the system to this final state, this process includes carrying out
some tasks such as: making plan and strategy, consultation, data
collection, model building, model calibration and validation,
understanding customers water requirements and predicting system
future water demand, installation of new SCADA system or
improving an existing one, looking for feasible and economical
solutions and executing them, decision-making, etc. Each one of these
tasks is a challenge for the manager. At each stage, there are
difficulties and obstacles and thus the manager has to make decisions
to successfully accomplish the task. As we saw in this work,
mathematicians, hydraulic engineers, and programmers have made an
appreciative effort and have developed different methods, algorithms,
softwares, and tools to accomplish the same task. This multitude
means that the path to be followed to reach the final state is not unique
and thus nobody guarantees that the final solution is unique since each
methods, algorithms, and tools has its own assumptions, and
complexity and accuracy levels. The key decision which must be
made at the very start of the process is whether or not to use the
hydraulic network modeling software as the right tool for providing
answers to problems faced in managing water distribution systems.
However, the manager must make a choice which leads him to the
final state with feasible, satisfactory, and economical solutions.

‰ Concerning FINESSE software, this study was a useful opportunity,


not only for SCP but also for DMU, to try and test this software and
its modeling, simulation, prediction, and optimization tools at SCP.
During this work some bugs in the software have been identified and
the demand prediction module was improved, and new element was
added, that is “turbine”. One of the obstacles of using FINESSE is
lack of documentation and its “help file” is not complete and, hence,
the user always needs to contact the software developer at DMU to
request help on using the software tools. However, some problems
have been encountered during the use of FINESSE for “Toulon Est”
network, for example the turbine, where this element was not
integrated into FINESSE and then it was added upon our request for
12. CHAPTER 11 : Summary and Conclusions 279

the purpose of this study. Even though, this was not enough to fulfill
our needs since the pump and the turbine are physically the same unit
but in FINESSE they are modeled as two separated elements. Yet, the
usefulness of this software at SCP is doubtful.

‰ Another problem is related to the “Pump Scheduler”. The problem is


that at SCP we are currently using an old version of GAMS and
CONOPT (1999) and it seems that this version is not efficient in some
cases as such are those that were presented in Chapter 9 and Chapter
10. A more recent version of GAMS and CONOPT (2003) used at
DMU also showed difficulties in finding a feasible and optimal
solution sometimes proving that this non linear optimization problem
is a difficult one and that the available algorithms and software may
not fulfill our requirements yet.

‰ In this thesis, a calibration approach has been presented, and we


described the use of EPANET software and Excel VBA macro in
search of the best set of pipe roughness coefficients. This tool is an
automatic trial-and-error calibration approach and provides reasonable
solutions as well. It performs very well with the small size network
but in large size network the time required to find an optimal solution
is often very long. However, this tool maybe needs to be improved to
reduce the time required to find a solution, and it would be great if the
nodes demand factors can be calibrated too. Also, this calibration
work shows how difficult is the calibration process of the hydraulic
model for water pipe network; even for a simple network like “Toulon
Est” network.

‰ According to the comparison study made between FINESSE demand


prediction and other prediction techniques, including those used at the
SCP, the DMU-WSS has improved the demand prediction and the
new version gives better results than the old one and allows the user to
choose either single, double, or triple exponential soothing, but it
cannot automatically set the smoothing constant for the case at hand
and thus the user must either accept the default value or he already
must know the right smoothing constant for the case at hand. The
knowledge and the experience of the persons who manage and operate
the networks at the SCP’s control center had permitted them to
develop their own forecasting tools giving good forecasts for demands
for the systems which they operate when compared to others known
techniques such as those presented in this work.
12. CHAPTER 11 : Summary and Conclusions 280

‰ Finally, since this research work comes within the framework of the
Franco-Jordanian technical cooperation the knowledge acquired in
this domain will be transferred when I go back to Jordan to improve
the situation of water distribution in the country that is one of the ten
countries most threatened by the water shortage in the world and is
facing a chronic imbalance in the water supply-demand equation. The
operating cost of urban water in a country, having semi-arid climate
and water resources limited and difficult to exploit, is very high.
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« Et Nous avons fait de l’eau toute chose vivante »

« And We made every living thing of water »

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