Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MU0010 Manpower Planning and ResourcingSemester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 Q.

.1What are the obstacles in Manpower Planning Following are the main obstacles that organizations face in the process of manpower planning: 1. Under Utilization of Manpower: The biggest obstacle in case of manpower planning is the factthat the industries in general are not making optimum use of their manpower and once manpowerplanning begins, it encounters heavy odds in stepping up the utilization. 2. Degree of Absenteeism: Absenteeism is quite high and has been increasing since last few years. 3. Lack of Education and Skilled Labour: The extent of illetracy and the slow pace of developmentof the skilled categories account for low productivity in employees. Low productivity has implicationsfor manpower planning. 4.Manpower Control and Review: a.Any increase in manpower is considered at the top level of managementb . O n the basis of manpower plans, personnel budgets are prepared. These a c t a s c o n t r o l mechanisms to keep the manpower under certain broadly defined formula: Productivity = Output / Input . But a rough index of employee productivity is calculated as follows: Employee Productivity = Total Production / Total no. of employees d.Exit Interviews, are the rate of of turnover and rate of absenteesim source v i t a l information on the satisfaction level of limits.c.The productivity of any organization is usually calculated using the

manpower. For conservation of Human Resourcesand better utilization of men studying these condition, manpower control would have totake into account the data to make meaningful analysis.e . E x t e n t o f O v e r t i m e : T h e a m o u n t o f o v e r t i m e p a i d m a y b e d u e t o r e a l s h o r t a g e o f m e n , ineffective management or improper utilization of manpower. Manpower control wouldrequire a careful study of overtime statistics.Few Organizations do not have sufficient records and information on manpower. Several of those whohave them do not have a proper retrieval system. There are complications in resolving the issues indesign, definition and creation of computerized personnel information system for effective manpowerplanning and utilization. Even the existing technologies in this respect is not optimally used. This is astrategic disadvantage. Q.2 Explain demand forecasting techniques.

A demand forecast is the prediction of what will happen to your company's existing product sales. Itwould be best to determine the demand forecast using a multi-functional approach. The inputs fromsales and marketing, finance, and production should be considered. The final demand forecast is theconsensus of all participating managers. You may also want to put up a Sales and Operations Planninggroup composed of representatives from the different departments that will be tasked to prepare thedemand forecast.Determination of the demand forecasts is done through the following steps: Determine the use of the forecast Select the items to be forecast Determine the time horizon of the forecast Manipal University - MBA - MU0010 Manpower Planning and Resourcinghe forecasting model(s)the datathe forecastimplement resultse H r r r l 3 s c o a a a y p d r n n n s i g g g l l u w i l c z r o e e e t o c i i n M L u e 3 a n p h e o r s b g p t i o d n a s i , r l i o t w o r i g t n t u i t y o d J r o h o k u n a 3 r c les and t velopment, b e U n s u a l F m o r e c a s t

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Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MU0010 Manpower Planning and ResourcingSemester: 3 - Assignment

The opinions of a small group of high-level managers are pooleda n d together models. they estimate demand. The group uses t h e i r managerial experience, and in some cases, combines the results of statistical

Sales force composite Each salesperson (for example for a territorial coverage) is asked toproject their sales. Since the salesperson is the one closest to them a r k e t p l a c e , h e h a s t h e c a p a c i t y t o k n o w w h a t t h e c u s t o m e r wants. These projections are t h e n c o m b i n e d a t t h e m u n i c i p a l , provincial and regional levels. Delphi method A panel of experts is identified where an expert could be a decisionmaker, an ordinary employee, or an industry expert. Each of themw i l l b e a s k e d i n d i v i d u a l l y f o r their estimate of the demand. Aniterative process is conducted until t h e e x p e r t s h a v e r e a c h e d a consensus. Consumer market survey The customers are asked about their purchasing plans and theirp r o j e c t e d b u y i n g b e h a v i o r . A l a r g e n u m b e r o f r e s p o n d e n t s i s needed here to be able to generalize certain results. Quantitative Forecasting Methods There are two forecasting models here (1) the time series model and (2) the causal model. A timeseries is a s et of evenly spaced numerical data and is o btained by observing responses at regular timeperiods. In the time series model , the forecast is based only on past values and assumes that factorsthat influence the past, the present and the future sales of your products will continue.O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t he causal model uses a mathematical technique known as the regressionanalysis that relates a dependent variable (for example, demand) to an independent variable (forexample, price, advertisement, etc.) in the form of a linear e q u a t i o n . T h e t i m e s e r i e s f o r e c a s t i n g methods are described below: T i m e S e r i e s F o r e c a s t i n g MethodDescriptionNave Approach Assumes that demand in the next period is the same as demand in most recent period; demand pattern may not always be that stableFor example: If July sales were 50, then Augusts sales will also be 50 Description

Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MU0010 Manpower Planning and ResourcingSemester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 T i m e S e r i e s F o r e c a s t i n g MethodMoving Averages (MA) MA is a series of arithmetic means and is used if little or no trend ispresent in the data; provides an overall impression of data over timeA simple moving average uses average demand for a fixeds e q u e n c e good for stable demand with F 4 = [D 1 + D2 + D3] / 4 of periods and is n o pronounced behavioral patterns.Equation:

F forecast, D Demand, No. Period (see illustrative example simple moving average) A weighted moving average adjusts the moving average methodto reflect fluctuations more closely by assigning weights to the mostrecent data, meaning, that the older data is usually less important.T h e w e i g h t s a r e b a s e d o n i n t u i t i o n a n d l i e b e t w e e n 0 a n d 1 f o r a total of 1.0Equation: WMA 4 = (W) (D3) + (W) (D2) + (W) (D1) WMA Weighted moving average, W Weight, D Demand, No. Period (see illustrative example weighted moving average)Exponential Smoothing The exponential smoothing is an averaging method that reactsm o r e changes in demand by assigning strongly to recent a smoothing constant to the most

recent data more strongly; useful if r e c e n t c h a n g e s i n d a t a a r e t h e r e s u l t s o f a c t u a l c h a n g e ( e . g . , seasonal pattern) instead of just random fluctuations F t + 1 = a D t + (1 - a ) F t WhereF t + 1 = the forecast for the next periodD t = actual demand in the present periodF t = the previously determined forecast for the present period

Sikkim Manipal University - MBA - MU0010 Manpower Planning and ResourcingSemester: 3 - Assignment Set: 1 = a weighting factor referred to as the smoothing constant(see illustrative example exponential smoothing)T S The time series decomposition a d j u s t s t h e s e a s o n a l i t y b y multiplying the normal forecast by a seasonal factor (see illustrative example time series decomposition)Q.3 what are the inputs provided by HR for Manpower planning Manpower Planning which is also called as Human Resource Planning consists of putting right number of people, right kind of people at the right place, right time, doing the right things for which they aresuited for the achievement of goals of the organization. Human Resource Planning has got an importantplace in the arena of industrialization. Human Resource Planning has to be a systems approach and iscarried out in a set procedure. The procedure is as follows:1 . A n a l y s i n g t h e c u r r e n t m a n p o w e r inventory2.Making future manpower forecasts3.Developing employment p r o g r a m m e s 4 . D e s i g n t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m m e s Steps in Manpower Planning 1. Analysing the current manpower inventory- Before a manager makes f o r e c a s t o f f u t u r e manpower, the current manpower status has to be analysed. For this the following things haveto be noted Type of organization Number of departments Number and quantity of such departments Employees in these work unitsOnce these factors are registered by a manager, he goes for the future forecasting. 2. Making future manpower forecasts- Once the factors affecting the future manpower forecastsare known, planning can be done for the future manpower requirements in several work units.The Manpower forecasting techniques commonly employed by the organizations are as follows: i. Expert Forecasts: This includes informal decisions, formal expert surveys and Delphitechnique. e r i i m e e s Decomposition

ii. Trend Analysis: Manpower needs can be projected through extrapolation (projecting pasttrends), indexation (using base year as basis), and statistical analysis (central tendencymeasure). iii. Work Load Analysis: It is dependent upon the nature of work load in a department, in abranch or in a division. iv. Work Force Analysis: Whenever production and time period has to be analysed, dueallowances have to be made for getting net manpower requirements.