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Abstract
The crops production system which was consisted by the crop variety, the ecological
environment and the cultivation measure was the main research object, the research proposed the
agricultural extension Grey system. By the way of contrasting the crop variety field plot experiment
and the big area which as demonstration, utilized statistics investigation research techniques, utilizing
Grey system theory, the research proposed the agricultural extension Grey system analysis method, has
established the agricultural extension Grey system connection, the decision-making, the forecast and
the control model, promoted the agricultural extension quantitative, the simulation, the optimization
and the scientific style.
1.1
11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
1.3
1.3.1
1982
1.2
1.3.2
GM
11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
1.4
1.3.3
1.3.4
2.1
2.1.1
11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
2.2
2.1.2
2.2.1
xik
2.2.3
11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
S S=ab
3.2
()
()()
3.2.1 ()
3.1
()
GM
()xik
0.9581
0.9427 0.6151
x0k
11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
()xik
0.9113 0.9024
1 1
0.5996
1.0000
2 1
0.6273
1 1
3.2.2 ()
1.0000
2 1
0.9705
3 1
a1
0.4752
a2
,()
b1
b2
b3
,
S11(a1b1)(,)
S21(a2b1)(,)
S12(a1b2)(,)
S22(a2b2)(,)
S13(a1b3)(,)
S23(a2b3)(,)
,
S11(
)
S21(
)
5
,
S11(a1b1)(
)
S12(a1b2)(
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.0667
0.0667
0.0667
S13(a1b3)(
)
1.0000
0.9705
0.4752
0.6273
0.6195
0.2801
:
S11(
11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
x(1)(t+1)=314265.3603e0.0065t-312046.8703
C=0.26670.35P=10.95,
GOOD
)
S21(
)
4.1
,
C0.35 P0.95
(GOOD),
x(0)
GM(1,1)
4.2.3
+ b N x (N1)
(x0)
a b
GM(1,N) N 1
GM1,1
x(1)(t+1)=x(0)(1)-u/ae-at+u/a
x(0)(t+1)=x(1)(t+1)-x(1)(t)
4.2
4.2.1
6
GM1,1
dx/dt-0.0065x=2028.7924
(x1)(x2)
(x3)(x4)(x5)
84.7% 69.9%
23.11% 40mm
x0(k)
xi(k)
R
11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
5.3
5.3.1
0.6489
0.7038
0.7785
R=
0.7785
0.7038
0.6489
,,,
,,
5.1
(Control)
,
,
,
,
,:
,
,
,,
,
,
,
,
5.3.2
0.9527, 1
0.7188,
2
5.2
0.6909, 3
0.6451, 4
0.6381, 5
11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
,
5.3.3
GM(1,1), GM(1,1)
, GM(1,N)
, GM
x1=x2x3=x2u1u2u3
0.8594 1
0.8453 2
0.6692 3
0.5821 4
x1(x2 )
(x3)(u1)
u2u3
u4u5
5.4
GM(1,N)
GM(1,N)
5.6
GM(1,N)
-(Runge-Kutte)
(xi) x1 x2
x3
(x1)
u1,u2,u3,u4,u5 ,
(x2)(x3)
,,,
x1=(x2)
(x3)(ui), u1
(
),u2 ,u3 ,u4
(
),u5 ()
5.5
11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
1.
2.
3.
4.
( 79 )
( 77 )
( 94 )
( 76 )
( 89 )
( 81 ):
:
( 82 )
:
( 74 )(
)
( 85 )
:
( 75 )
:
( 80 )
:
12.
13.
14.
( 85 )
:
( 89 )
( 89 )