Professional Documents
Culture Documents
vn
Briefing
Global economy
USD remarked stronger rise towards other assets in Nov U.S public debts exceeded USD 15 thousand bil 6 central banks coordinated to prevent European crisis Sell offs dominated on commodity market
Domestic economy
CPI rose by 0.39% against October Processing industry took half of FDI Import accelerated SBV strictly punished exceeding ceiling mobilization Steel was sued for anti dumping in U.S
After 3 months with net selling, foreign investors made net buying Facing hardship, enterprises gave thoughts to restructure Due to capital lack, enterprises sold shares to funds at low price
Real estate
Compiled by Date analysis and Editorial division - CafeF Address: CDC Building, 25 27 Le Dai Hanh,Ha Noi Tel: 04 39749300. Ext: 562 Fax: 04 39744082 Email: info@cafef.vn
Apartment stayed neglected without discount With tax liabilities, ParkCity,
12
Geleximcoconfronted
being
uncertified Loosen credit for certain real estate groups Introduce Rail way real estate company
15
Excluding BVH, MSN, VIC and VNM, HN-Index a 11/30/2011 stayed at 224.6, P/E and P/B on HOSE remained at 7.25 and 1.56.
18
21
GLOBAL ECONOMY
U.S economy Manufacturing gained good signs: Orders in Nov 2011 experienced 7 month strongest rise. Order index also climbed to 56.7, PMI rose 2 points to 52.7. USD remarked biggest rise against other currencies: In Nov, USD index with 6 currencies climbed 2.9% which reduced 11 month fall to 1%. Government bond rate remained at 0.7, S&Ps GSCI rose by 1.4%, MSCI slid 2.9%. Public debts exceeded USD 15 thousand bil: According to AFP, data released on Nov 16 by State Treasury indicated a total loan overtaking USD 15,000bil, 99% estimated U.S economic scale in 2011. Since approval to raise official national ceiling loan limit from USD 14,300 to 15,194bil, figure gradually accelerated. U.S economy confronted crisis: Regardless of internal governments disability in hitting final target for budget overspending, credit rating was still remained at AAA by Fitch highest level. However, economic outlook was downgraded to negative due to loss of confidence on a decrease of budget overspending. Europe 6 central banks coordinated to prevent Europe crisis: 6 central banks (Fed, Europe, Canada, Britain, Japan and Swiss) agreed upon creating a bilateral swap in order to guarantee supply of any currency on generated demand. This program is validated till 02/01/2013. Overnight interest rate of USD swaps slid 0.05 percentage point from previous 0.1, validating from 12/05/2011. Concerns on Italian crisis: Current government Italy debts reached USD 2,600 bil. Minister of Industry, Transportation and Infrastructure Corrado Passera warned about an economy facing the edge of crisis. Europe witnessed fifth breakdown since debt crisis: Spain social party remarked the fifth
GOLDEN SPONSOR
breakdown due to debt crisiss effects after new president appointments in both Italy and Greece, Ireland and Portugese residents dismissed their leaders after bailout receipt. IMF could not independently finance for European support: IMFs reserve for loan is about euro 280bil which would be irrelevant if used for merely one country. As warnings by USB, market gave thoughts to a broken euro due to unpredictable turn ups of bad circumstances which stay out of politic handling. China China officially redirected monetary policy: On 11/30/2011, Chinese central bank reduced obligatory reserve by 0.5 percentage points to 21% towards big commercial banks which took effects since 12/05/2011. As clearly seen, economic growth was put above inflation restrain, regardless of a forming real estate bubble risks. PMI index for manufacturing sector in Nov slid to 49 lowest since 02/2009 and lower than 50.4 in Oct. FDI into China in 2011 may set records: As released by Ministry of Commerce, FDI into China in Oct grew by 8.8% against same prior period to USD 8.33bil. This figure is 7.9% in Sept. 10 month FDI rose by 15.9%. With increasing number of enterprises penetrating for market share, China may at second time set records of inflow FDI. Japan Japan raised tax to improve income, reduce debts: On 11/30, Japanese Congress approved an urgent tax increase law, which allowed government to level up income taxes within 25 years, to guarantee capitals for reconstructing damaged areas from earthquake and tidal waves on 03/11. Assets were sold to support restructuring East North region.
Page 1
GLOBAL ECONOMY
Japanese economy lost recovery trends: Import in Oct fell by 7.3%. Trade deficit was recorded at Yen 273.8bil (USD 3.56bil). Global stock market Changes of main global indexes in 11/2011 (Source: FT) Index S&P 500 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Hang Seng Straits Times RTS S&P/ASX 200 NZX 50 S&P 500 Change -1.17% -0.37% 1.04% 0.56% 2.88% -4.48% -6.85% 0.31% -2.43% -1.17%
Commodity Unit Price on Price on Compared 30/11 31/10 to year beginning 100,39 110,49 3,548 92,56 109,23 3,934 9.9% 16.6% -19.5% 22.8% -18.0% 0 -18.6% -25.0% -3.8% -23.9% -26.2%
WTI Brent
USD/barrel USD/barrel
Natural gas USD/gallon Spot gold Bronze Corn Bean Wheat Coffee Cacao Sugar
USD/ounce 1.745,40 1,725.20 USD/ton USD/bushel USD/bushel USD/bushel USD/lb USD/ton US cent/lb 7,868.25 8,007.00 6,005 6,47
Commodity market
Sell offs dominated Except oil, commodities significantly surged (5% on average) within 15-25/11 due to incessant sell offs on unexpected rise in Europe lending expense, which raised concerns about disability in controlling crisis. 3 days of month end, sell offs ceased. Many turned back to commodities with belief on a weakening USD and positive global economic outlook. In general, commodity only fell by 1.9% against Oct. Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index on 19 crude materials and goods in 11 (Source: CRB) Gold holding of ETFs reached records Not out of sell off trend, but signs are mainly from individual investors. Trust funds are still making efforts for a 64 ton net buying, raise holding amount to VND 2,356,002 tons. SPDR Gold Trust biggest global gold fun purchased 54.98 tons with total figure at the end of 2012 of 1,298.53 tons.
Stay out of the trend, crude oil reached its 5 month highest due to worries upon nuclear Analysts opinion intense situation in Iran and punishment towards Plamen Monovski, investment director of Syria. In Nov, WTI rose by 12.4%. Renaissance Asset managers with USD 2bil stated that, due to raise in future monetary Rubber fell supply and interest reduction, commodity price Natural rubber in Asia strongly fell due to Europe will significantly increased. debt crisis and floods in Thai Lan stopping auto factories operations. In Nov, rubber slid 22% Goldman Sachs investment bank predicted that commodity is likely to raise by 15% in next and nearly 40% against the early 2011.
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 2
Economic Financial report in 11/2011 12 months; in which Brent will reach127.5 USD/barrel; bronze USD 9,500/ton; Gold price 1,940/oz; corn 5.5 USD/bushel.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Sector Electric cables and insulated cables Paper pulp, paper and covers Beer and malt Motorbikes Other plastic products Bed, wardrobes, chairs and tables Concrete, lime, mortar CPI in Nov rose by 0.39% againt Oct In Nov, food and related services increased by 0.56% with bigger portion of food at 3.25%. CPI in Nov increased by 17.5% compared to the end of 12/2010 and 19.83% over prior year. Average CPI 11 month gained a 18.62% rise against same previous period. Non heating porcelain, pottery Rise 33.8% 72.6% 31.3% 38.8% 55.1% 101% 64.2% 62.7%
11 month budget investment reached 84.5% whole year target Realized capital from State budget in Nov hit an estimated VND 20.7 thousand bil. 11 month figure was recorded at VND 170.6 thousand bil 84.5% whole year plan and a 8.8% rise against 2010. Processing industry proportioned half of FDI FDI to 10/20/2011 reached USD 12.7bil, 83.8% same period in 2010. 11 month FDI disbursement hit USD 10.05bil, 1% higher than same period. FDI mainly focused on processing industry with over USD 6.24bil highest proportion of 49%.
Industrial manufacturing rose by 7% Industrial manufacturing in 11/2011 rose by 5% against last month and 8.1% against prior year. In 11 months, rate will be increased 6.9%.11 month CPI climbed 6.9%. Inventories strongly rose In Nov, inventory index climbed 21.5%, remarking a second consecutive dramatic rise after 5.5% fall in Sept. High inventories could be seen with:
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 3
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Budget gain mostly reached plan Budget overspending to 10/15 stayed at VND 52.9 thousand bil. To 11/15/2011, total State budget gain reached an estimated VND 586.2 thousand bil, 98.5% whole year plan with gains from crude oil hitting VND 90.3 thousand bil, exceeding plan by 30.3%. To 11/15/2011, State budget spending reached an estimated VND 639.1 thousand bil, 88.1% whole year plan with debt payments and aids exceeding plan by 0.4%. Excluding price factor, retail rose 4.1% 11 month retail volumes and revenue from consumption service was estimated at VND 1,814 thousand bil, 23.5% same prior period and 4.1% on exclusion of price. Export kept accelerating Estimated export hit USD 8.6bil, 2.5% higher than prior month and 22% against 2010. 11 month figure reached USD 87.2bil, 34.7% higher than 2010. Import turnover was estimated at USD 9.3bil, a 1.7% gain over prior month and 15.5% over prior year. 11 month figure climbed 14% against 2010 to USD 96.1bil. Net import was estimated at USD 700mil. 11 month volume stayed at USD 8.9bil, 10.2% export turnover. Excluding gold, 11 month net import hit USD 9.2bil, 10.8% total export turnover. Noticeable macro events Decree of Congress on interview, answer in second meeting, Congress term XIII was approved. Transportation: 2012 was the year redefining regulations in traffic control. for Control towards people and vehicles taking part in traffic acitivities; increase in punishments for traffic safety violations,are to be executed. Agriculture: Increase investment in agriculture, assure a double level of 2005 2010 in the next 5 years. In education: Initiatives for a fundamental and throughout change, enhancement of human resource quality to meet requirements of industrialization, modernization and globalization. There are strict regulations towards corporation in education c with foreign entities. In financial field: Execute market price reign with electricity, gasoline, coal and other essential goods, supply appropriate supports for policy entities. To 2015, complete out of sector divestment. Restructure and enable developments of stock, bonds, insurance markets and investment funds on an international standard to meet capital demand. Efficiently execute approaches to prevent budget decrease; control transfer price; construct a path for decrease budget overspending. In banking sector: Restructure commercial bank systems, assure effective operation, various products and services in response to economic development; assure no weak banks lingering which negatively impacts economy EVN Telecom is favored by many parties Though there has not yet been a final decision on transferring EVN Telecom to Viettel, EVN Telecom was grasping great attention. If transfer is made, Viettel will hold 50% national 3G fund. This means a death blow to small companies and brings telecommunication market back to exclusive period.
Page 4
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Economic Financial report in 11/2011 VTC, Vietnammobile, planning for purchase. Auto and Hanoi Telecomare Ministry of Transportation will submit to Government Merging plan between Jetstar Pacific and Vietnam Airlines Jetstar Pacific is owned by SCIC with focus on cheap flights but due to inefficient operation, it frequently faced losses. Merging is considered the most feasible to save Jetstar from bankruptcy. If successful, Vietnma Airlines will hold approximately 100% domestic market share (currently 80%, followed by Jetstar with 17%).
multifunctional
Mechanic
industrial zone with total investment of USD 350mil were signed for commencement between Quang Nam province and Columbus company. This is a part of Open economic zone Chu Lai (Quang Nam) on an area of 1,000ha.
Banking - Finance
Mobilization still fixed at 14%/year.7 and 14 days are still According to Ha Noi statistic department, total periods used in OMO. mobilization in Nov hit VND 787,790bil 99.95% Interbank market previous month and 99.07% of Dec 2010. Average overnight interbank rate of below 1 In Ho Chi Minh, the figure reached an estimated month during the month faltered around 11% VND 886.9 thousand bil, 1.8% and 16.5% higher 15.7%. As reaching maximum rate of 14%/year than previous month and 2010 respectively. on market 1, this marked a difference with Credit growth October. Total outstanding credit loan at the end of Nov in HCM was estimated at VND 753.8 thousand bil - 9.1% higher than 2010. In which, foreign currency portioned VND 224 thousand bil 28.7% total figure and a 13% rise against same previous period; VND figure accounted for 71.3%, a 7.6% increase against same previous period. In Ha Noi, total outstanding loan rose by 1% against previous month and 10.58% over 12/2010 to stand at VND 563,900bil. In terms of period, short, medium and long term respectively experienced a rise by 1.36% and 9.89%; 0.45% and 11.66%. Open market From 31 Oct to 02 Dec, OMO helped SBV inject VND 11,873bil into the market. Interest rate is
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Still, there were significant movements in 1 week term. Below 1 month accounted for 60-70% total trading value.
Bond market Through bids of government bonds, VND 1,517bil were successfully mobilized. 3 year bonds value reached VND 1,000bil at 12.1%/year. There was 1 failed session on Nov 10.
Page 5
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
In afterward sessions, a low trading volume was recorded in only 1 term. On Nov 17 and 24, total mobilized value was only VND 100bil and 17bil in 5 year term at 12.15%/year. BIDV committed financing for 3 banks: Ficombank, BacA bank and GP bank, totaling VND 13,000bil. SBV strongly punished exceeding maximum level mobilizations of institutions, specifically HD Bank with 17 staff dismissed or fined. An up to VND 500mil administrative charge was applied to entities violating Decree 95/ND-CP on illegal foreign currencies quotes and trading. State Bank governor answered queries in Parliament meeting on popular issues such as: restructure of banking system, managements on gold market and interest rates, SBVs monetary policies. There was revelation of 8 small commercial banks with unsafe operations. Prime Minister made commitments on quickly dealing with weak banks against banking system restructure without causing any bankruptcy, guaranteeing peoples deposit rights. Dealing with bad debts in commercial banks remained a challenge with analysts assuming hardship in clarifying accurate bad debts portion. BIDV officially announced IPO progress in the end of Dec. Bidding rate stayed at 3% capitalized chartered capital. Legal policies On Nov 11, Circular 35 on information disclosure of SBV was released. Accordingly, SBV will supply 5/12 standard banking financial ratios including: CAR, bad debts/ total outstanding loans ratio, sections outstanding loans/total outstanding loans, ROA and ROE. On Nov 14, SBV issued Document no 8844/NHNN-CSTT on credit activities in two final months of the year. In which, there is regulation of 4 groups on real estate loans not included in non-manufacturing outstanding figure.
Exchange rate Average interbank exchange rate remained unchanged at VND 20,803. VND 21,011 is maximum applicable level regulated by SBV. Banks made no change with maximum value in both bid and ask. Free exchange rate cooled to neatly banks rate due to obligatory application of Decree 95 on administrative punishment towards monetary and banking violations. Gold market Since Nov 04, with VBDQ Bao Tin Minh Chau quoting its prices lower than market value of VND500 thousand/oz, even reaching VND 1mil sometimes, gold market tumbled. This was due to concerns that a gold draft by SVB if approved would delete all gold stores, except SJC. Market turned out less quiet, mainly with selling non SJC gold and purchasing SJC gold. Entities manufacturing and trading non SJC gold ceased operations. Essential news In the outset of commercial banks lending on interbank market experienced overdue repayments of interest, even principals, VCB required these institutions to ensure their loans with mortgages.
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 6
On Nov 28, Ministry of Finance issued a dispatch to gasoline trading enterprises without modification on gasoline price and import tax for these goods to remain current levels. Stabilizing funds supporting value for gasoline products was raised by VND 250/liter at realistic census
announced its official investigation towards antidumping and anti subsidy for carbon steel tube of Vietnam. There are 10 enterprises under
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 7
investigation from 04/01 to 09/11/2011 including Asia Huu Lien JSC Co.,Ltd; Daiwa Lance International Company, Hoa Phat Steel Pipe Co; Hoa Sen Group; Hyundai-Huy Hoang Pipe; SeAH
Steel Vina Corporation; Tianjin Lida Steel Pipe Group; Vietnam Germany Steel Pipe JSC (VGPipe); Vinapipe and Vingal Industries Co., Ltd.
STOCK MARKET
This month, VN-Index slid 9.5% from 420.8 to 380.7, HNX- Index experienced same trend with 13.8% fall from 70.2 to 60.5 lowest ever Trading volume on HOSE saw a slight decrease against previous month, averaging 31.8 mil shares/session approximately VND 528 bil. However, end month sessions trading volume fell below VND 500bil, with considerable rise of deals as STB registered purchasing 100 mil treasury stocks. There are 2 new stocks on HOSE CNG and HU1, 1 on Upcom NHN (Southern Ha Noi urban development company owned by Times City) with opening price at VND 30,000 then climbing up to 43,000/share on Dec 01. Among 306 listed shares on HOSE, there are only 37 seen with upward trend, 10 remained unchanged, others fell. Decreases: Regardless of a below 10% slide of Vn Index, there are shares with over 50% fall such as PTC, and 40% such as KSH, KSA, PAC, BGM on HOSE and SME, LCD, NHA,AGP,OCH on HNX. Listing cancellation dominated: Out of compulsory cases due to frauds and low ability in meeting requirements such as DVD, VTA, FPC , a number asked for its listing to be cancelled such as SQC, SGT, TBC, CSG, TRI, V11, S27. At the end of this month, ORSs managing board agreed upon cancelling listing which resulted in strong sales by small shareholders. STB registered purchase of 100 mil treasury stocks from Nov 16 to Dec 16. There are concerns as it takes over VND 130 bil for fulfilling registration while STB had just issued 100 mil shares on same price in Aug 2011. Besides, this may result in a lower CAR which is not a favorable choice at the moment. Security companies changed managing members: In Thang Long company, Mr Luu Trung Thai replaced Mr Le Dinh Ngoc as General Director; in Ocean company, Mr Bui Quang Bach replaced Mr Vu Hong Son as General Director; in FLC, Mr Pham Duc Thang replaced Mr Duong Quang Trung as General Director. Previously, within 6 weeks from Oct to Nov, 6 deputy general directors were dismissed. Incessant changes in labor force dominated from beginning of the year with 127 staff reduced in SSI (24.4%), 92 in SBS (24%) and 56 in VND (19.8%
Page 8
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Economic Financial report in 11/2011 Security Commission collects opinions for draft of Decree on set up and management of stock funds, involving 2 types: with legal status (public funds, separate funds, real estate stock investment companies) and without legal status (closed funds, member funds, real estate investment funds). For opened funds, according to Deputy Finance Minister Tran Xuan Ha, decree related will be published in Dec 2011. Restructuring stock market: According to Mr Tran Xuan Ha Deputy Finance Minister, evaluation will be processed by State departments with reference to Decree 226, then categorization of stock market into groups which enables appropriate solutions for restructuring. In quarter I, risk management principles in stock trading are to be issued. In quarter II, CAMELS is expected to be revealed with a view to enhancing financial safety for stock companies. In case of lengthening trading limits previously studied, application is expected in Feb 2012. However, for shortening trading limits T+2, there was plan submitted to MoF in Dec 2011 for execution in 2012. Trading activities gained attention: SSIAM registered purchasing 5mil and selling 2mil HVG shares from 07 Oct to 07 Dec, HQCs chairman of the board and his wife registered selling 3 mil and 7 mil respectively resulting in incessant selling afterwards by shareholders, driving HQCs price down from VND 15,000 to 6,000/share; Korean Group is going to invest VND 210 bil in Golden Bridge stock company in terms of bonds purchase, VCB sold all of its 50% equity in Shinhan Vina, Vinatex is going to acquire a dying enterprise, Carlsberg purchased 50% equity in Huda Hue, Haverstock fund announced its purchase of Thai Hoa Groups shares in terms of deals. Government bounced back stock market: In an interview with Parliament, Prime Minister stated that there would be solutions for a rebound of stock and real estate market. According to Deputy Minister Vu Van Ninh, government required Ministry of Finance to construct restructuring plans and orientations with close connection to recovery of domestic stock market. Additionally, Ministry of Finance and Security Commission were required to enhance supervising operations to guarantee a safe and positive stock market.
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 9
Code
VIC FPT MBB KDC REE PNJ DHG MSN CLG VCB
Code
STB HAG CTG ITA NTL PVF PPC SJS SSI BVH
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 10
STOCK MARKET
Enterprise news
In harsh competiton, restructuring is favored. SHC announced its Shareholders meetings resolution of asset restructuring as it will sell assets with low or non profitability. Due to its 2 consecutive years of losses, this is essential step to take. Despite announcing its restructuring plan, SBS continuously closed branches and changed staff. TLS is going to liquidate assets of low profitability together with staff change in order to push non profitable asset value to 0. Previously, on the way to get in top 5 biggest paint brands in Viet Nam, ALP announced its plan to restructure the entire group in terms of acquisition. VOS, VFR set up plans for ship liquidation. Market price falling, enterprised unexpected high dividends gained Capital shortage pushed treasury stocks to lower levels Half a year since peak purchase period of treasury stocks, market still finds itself stuck in the bottom. Many enterprises registered selling at lower than purchasing level within 35-65% for fear of capital shortage next year specifically SHN, NDN, SDH, FBT. Other news PVA: 92.42% of capital increase issuance remained. PVX, PVC IDICO were unable to distribute 20mil shares. ORS held unusual shareholders meeting for approval of dismissal of managing boards membership of Huynh Thi Huyen Nhu due to fraud conviction; Ms Trieu Thi Huong Giang due to charges on not being aware of her being selected into Managing board. Also, listing cancellation was agreed. Regular violation in payment responsibility towards stock trading and overdue for payment support fund as committed made SME be suspended from depository activities by VSD. TAS received warnings from VSD due to its unability in stocks trading payment.
Tan Mai wood, Sai Gon shoes announced their dividend payments. Though 20 25% is quite normal, these figures startled investors with intervention of market price. As market price went down, temporary dividend hit 48.65% and 44.44% despite public figure at 18% and 20% of Sai Gon footwear (SSF) and Tan Mai wood respectively. Stocks got ignored Statistics showed that 30 day average trading volume stayed below 0.1% total current listed amount was observed with 400 enterprises. SQC, NVB, RIC, IFS, STG, COM, SPP, TMS, TMP, POM remained lowest liquidity as only 0.003% total listed amount was made at average 30 trading sessions.
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 11
REAL ESTATE
Market this month remained quiet with few trades and low liquidity, especially in Ha Noi ground land sector. Medium price apartments are in their balance with real demand.
Market news
Without great discounts, apartments received little attention: In Ha Noi, there have been transparent expectations towards falls in land and especially apartment price. In HCM, sell-offs by PV Landmark and An Tien projects negatively spread impacts on others with higher quotes. According to specialists, to the end of year, sell offs will be likely to dominate once enterprises lose control over interest. Even if there are bankruptcies, banks will be of no hesitation for collateral sell-offs.
Geleximco, Van Canh experienced highest fall in price: According to recent surveys, within 2 weeks Van Canh slid VND 5-7mil/m2 with current offers at VND 42mil/m2 of small area in big streets and 38mil/m2 of big area. In case of Geleximco project, adjacent A area was being offered at VND 68-70mil/m2, significantly falling from peak market level of VND 100mil/m2. In C area, offered price of adjacent apartments stayed around VND 40-42mil/m2 for big street and 38mil/m2 for small ones.
Policies
PVL failed with sell offs: In first session on Nov 08, PVL changed day to later and regulations as well. The next one with 7 profiles remarked 1 cancellation. Finally, 2 clients won the bid at VND 16.5mil/m2 and 4 at VND 16.8mil/m2. Loosening credit limits for real estate categories: On 11/14/2011, SBV issued dispatch no 8844/NHNN-CSTT on loosening credit limits for projects, purchase, rent, build or repair low income houses, loans on house purchase granted from salaries, works with completing period before 01/01/2012.
Concerns on Parkcity, Geleximco uncertified with land use rights (LUR) due to tax liabilities: According to Ha Dong tax agency, Vietnam international urban development company investor of Le Trong Tan new urban area (Parkcity), Ha Noi general import export company (Geleximco), Nam Cuong trading service company were noted with highest tax liabilities of VND 152bil, 100bil and 69bil respectively. They are 3/58 projects with biggest fines for delays in tax payments in Ha Dong. In case of not completing tax liabilities, LURs will not be certified which would negatively impact customers and investors as well.
There will be solutions in rebounding securities, real estate: As stated by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung amid queries in Parliament meeting on 11/25, in macro stabilizing package, there will be portions for recovering securities, real estate and not enabling big difference between domestic and global gold price. In 2012, a tight fiscal policy is to be executed, ensuring budget overspending at below 4.8% GDP, remaining a safe public debt ratio, improving trade balance, reducing net import and raising foreign currency reserves.
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 12
Economic Financial report in 11/2011 Reducing 50% land tax for certain economic Hiring level of urban land will rise by 40%: As institutions: In 2011 and 2012, land tax for stated by Mr Pham Dinh Thi (Deputy director of Tax several entities will be reduced by 50%. These department of MoF), from 01/01/2012, Tax law on include manufacturing enterprises, ones with use of non agricultural land will validate replacing annual payment for land hire who had to define current law on land tax. Accordingly, tax for area their base towards government regulations on within limit is 0.03%, exceeding limit portions will not collecting fees for land hire and ground including: be bigger than 3 times limit at 0.07%, 3 time limit entities have to redefine land hire price in new exceeding area is 0.15%. As calculated by Ministry of stabilizing period; entities ending exempting Finance, approximately 17mil units will be under period have to define their payment levels; control of this new law. For certain urban areas, entities using land before 03/01/2012 are under especially in Ha Noi and HCM, land use right tax will temporary payments and have to define official be raised by 40% against current amount. payable levels from 03/01/2011.
Enterprise operations
Propose to keep ceiling land price in Ha Noi in Vingroup sold tower B Vincom Ha Noi to 2012 at VND 86mil/m2: In submitting dispatch to Techcombank: Vingroup would transfer tower B HDND by People of Committee, land price in (office area) of Vincom Center Ha Noi at 191 Ba 2012 is based on frame by Government and Trieu to Techcombank Viet Nam simultaneously with remains stable as in 2011. There are only moving all its offices in Ha Noi to Vincom Village in changes for certain paths, locations, newly Sai Dong Long Bien in January 2012. Therefore, formed urban areas with advantageous location Techcombank will make 15 floors of this tower its and general planned area for urban development. main office. Accordingly, after being approved, land price list will be announced in Dec and valid from 2012. Introducing Railway real estate company: Railway real estate company (Rail way Land) held its opening No change in Ho Chi Minh land price in 2012: ceremony and announced chartered capital at over According to People of Committee, this is to VND 50bil (36% attributed by General rail way stabilize real estate market. Natural resource company) and planned to raise total amount to VND department was required to complete land price 200bil within 2011 -2012. 2012 dispatch to be approved in the upcoming meeting of HDND. Thus, this records third consecutive year with no change in annual land Signing contract on Management of Melia Da price quotes. Nang hotel: On 11/18, at Melia Ha Noi, ceremony for signing contract on management of Melia Da Nang hotel between Vistar and Melia hotels group International global leading group in hotel management was held.
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 13
REAL ESTATE
CEO VinaCapital left Vinalands managing board: As announcement by Vinaland to its investors, from 11/11/2011, Mr Don Lam and Robert Gordon will no longer be members of Managing board. In replace, Mr Michel Casselman, Stanley Chou and Charles Isaac to become 3 new independent non executive members which keeps total number of Vinalands managing board at 7 members. Nam Viet withdrew from real estate project: On a freezing market, Nam Viet decided to cease its Hiep Binh Phuoc villa project and negotiated with investors to collect its previously attributed amount. According to its Managing boards policy, 7 members agreed to authorize Chairman of the board to execute negotiation. Results will be announced on arrival and opinions by other members in dealing with collected amount will be collected in documents.
CBRE and Nam Long signed strategic consultancy contract: CBRE Viet Nam and Nam Long investment joint stock company announced their agreement on strategic coordination towards Ben Luc new urban area of 355 ha in Long An. Accordingly, CBRE will supply strategic consultancy for retail section. The project also includes houses and universities beside other services and conveniences.
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 14
Both Vn Index and HNX Index deeply fell by 9.5% and 13.9% respectively. Excluding BVH, MSN, VIC and VNM, Vn-Index at 11/30/2011 stayed at 224.6, P/B and P/E on HOSE hit 1.56 and 7.25.
7.25 1.56
_ _
_ _
Stock, money supply and demand in 11 months Dividends paid in cash (VND bil) - in Nov Gains on issuance to increase capital (VND bil) - in Nov Number of new shares after additional issuance - in Nov
The general downward trend was easily observed with falls in almost sectors. Strongest decreases remarked with Fundamental materials (-15.4%), Oil (-9.9%) and Public service (-9%) Health sector recorded highest foreign holding portions with 37% of room left. Others sectors grasped foreign attention are Oil and Technology with 54.1% and 57.4% of room left
27.227 1.003 13.712 5.559 2.813.547.171 1.011.600.622 Sector Technolody Industry Oil Public service Consumption service Consumption goods Finance Fundamental materials Health Changes (+/%)
Total dividends paid in cash in 11 months reached VND 27.2 thousand bil. Gains via share issues hit VND 13.7 thousand bil. Regarding 730mil MB shares and bluechips issuance to raise capital such as CTG, EIB, VNM, VCG, total supply figure in 11 months hit 5bil units.
P/E 8,2 6,2 5,5 8,8 13,3 11,2 9,7 4,8 7,2
P/B 1,4 0,7 1,1 0,7 1,8 2,4 2,7 1,2 2,0
Room left 57,4% 84,8% 54,1% 79,3% 84,0% 59,6% 58,6% 69,4% 37,4%
Cap rate 2,4% 7,7% 1,9% 1,6% 3,4% 23,4% 51,5% 5,9% 1,2%
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 15
Code CYC LGC CLG CMT HTL VNS SRF NSC ST8 VNM
% rise 47.6% 27.9% 24.4% 17.6% 11.4% 11.1% 9.5% 9.1% 8.7% 8.1%
Code PTC KSH KSA PAC BGM HQC SJS VKP AGR VES
% fall -60.0% -45.8% -45.3% -42.5% -41.4% -37.1% -36.8% -35.7% -34.7% -34.4%
On HOSE, Chang Yih (CIC) and Lu Gia (LGC) remained highest increase by 47.6% and 27.9%, both with low liquidity. Lowest liquidity was recorded with HTL (Truong Long auto JSC) - only 2 shares/session. Noticeably, if being second in top net selling the previous month, LGC stayed as second in top net buying this month. Strongest decrease was seen with PTC CTCP Dau tu va xay dung buu dien at 60%. Others were mainly in Mineral category (KSH, KSA, BGM) and real estate (HQC, SJS).
In Nove, HNX
Average monthly trading volume 55 317,827 632 23 36,918 255 1,336 332 4,927 2,505 Average monthly trading volume 149,082 282 3,618 14,864 51,005 17,659 8,659 14,073 8,505 4,745
Strongest increase both on HNX and the whole market is 50% by VXB (Ben Tre constructing materials). The second is 35.7% by FLC of FLC group which was recorded with an average trading volume of 300 thousand units/session. Stronges increase is SME of SME security company with 56.4%. This is also recognized with lowest market value (closing 11/30 at VND 1,700/share).
Code VXB FLC SGC HCT DNP ARM CT6 LM7 SVI NPS
% rise 48.8% 35.7% 31.4% 26.0% 25.6% 24.4% 21.7% 20.0% 19.7% 16.5%
Code SME LCD NHA APG OCH PXA HHL CCM SDU SKS
% fall -56.4% -54.6% -44.4% -44.2% -42.1% -38.5% -36.6% -35.5% -35.1% -34.1%
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 16
HNXindex
Trading volume and value (Blue: index value, red: trading volume)
In Nov, a net buying of VND 135.4bil on HOSE and selling of 27.2 on HNX were recorded.
11 month strongest net selling/buying (VND bil) Code VNM FPT CTG KDC VCB PVD ITC VCG PNJ MSN SSI PVS BVH REE MBB Floor
HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HNX HSX HSX HSX HNX HSX HSX HSX
Net buying 943.4 682.1 648.4 399.4 321.4 249.2 158.0 148.4 142.1 137.6 125.7 120.0 116.3 116.0 106.7
Code VIC STB HAG CTD CII TTP HVG ITA VPL HSG SAM NTL PPC SSC TDH
Floor
HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX HSX
Net selling -1,481.6 -339.7 -214.4 -214.1 -116.7 -84.1 -65.9 -52.1 -49.4 -43.4 -37.8 -37.8 -37.5 -35.8 -34.2
(*) unit: VND bil
Strongest net buying was recognized with VIC (VND 212bil), FPT (161) and MBB (107). On the opposite, STB grasped most attention with VND 200bil in Nov. In 4 years since 2008, net buying value of Nov has always remained lowest. Highest values in 11 months are VNM (VND 943.4bil), FPT (692.1) and CTG (648). Regarding net selling, with a total net value of VND 340bil in 11 months, STB took second highest position and let VIC lead the top with VND 1,482bil despite its net buying of VND 212 in Nov.
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 17
No
Name
Investor
Area
Location
Progress
Description
16 ha
The project is divided into 6 divisions with various resort types: garden villas, apartments, multi functional hotels for relaxation, entertainments, food as well as events, meetings, studies.
Full House
Green Oasis
9.6 ha
Full house eco park is located on a 9.6ha area, in which, 5.5ha is for period I . Truong Sa street, Hoa Hai ward, Ngu Hanh Son district, Da Nang city Under ground construction. Planned completion is on 2018. The project is divided into 2 divisions: Q1 faces seaside in Truong Sa street with 30ha including seaside villas, hotels, apartments, Q2 of 21.5ha includes street houses, villas, hotels, Commencement was on 07/24/2011, at present infrastructure construction was being progressed. As planned, in quarter 2/2012, streets for walking, street houses and Q2s infrastructure will be completed; in quarter 2/2014 Q1s villas and fundamental structure of Q2s villas, quarter 4/2016 hotel area and complex buildings. The project is located on both sides of main traffic axis of new city Nhon Trach, front side of street 1 with 53m, close to Administrative center, 25km away from HCM
VND 10,000
51.5 ha
HUD group
VND 6,000
150 ha
Under construction
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 18
Economic Financial report in 11/2011 through 25C. House area is 66ha in which there are 512 single villas, 836 duplex villas, 1000 adjacent villas. Construction scale stays at 44%. 5 Ben Thanh tower Bitexco N/A 8,600m2 Le Thi Hong Gam Commencement on 2012. The project is located on 8,600m2, constructing are is 180.000m2 including 2 towers joined by foundation and located far from each other. In which, western tower is of 55 floors including offices for lease in lower part and hotels. Easter tower is of 48 hotels including luxury apartment for lease and services in hotels area. The project includes two 15 floor buildings and 1 are for trade, culture and sport with an area of 100,000m2.
VND 1,000bil
20,000 m2
Under commencement
The Eastern
VND 210bil
District 9, HCM
The building is of 22 floors with an area of 87,000m2, on completion there will be 648 apartments with 56-112m2 each with various convenience such as swimming pool, gym centre and tennis court; meeting demand of medium segmentation. Total area 55,536.85m2 with 474 grounds including adjacent street houses averaging 110m2. Besides, there is 1 green park of 2,500m2 and public service area as well as primary school. The building is located on 3,203m2 with 21 floors, 3 basement floors which include 6 for trading centers, offices, 14 for luxury apartments and penthouse floor. The building is of 21 floors, 1 basement floor and 1 roof sited floor, constructed under 4 star standard. Floor 1 includes receptionist area, waiting hall and luxury bar;
Green land
55,536.5 m2
Phu My An limited
N/A
3,203 m2
Commencement on 11/01/2011
10
Taseco
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 19
Economic Financial report in 11/2011 Apartment Nang. finish of basement. floor 2 includes food area and also luxury meeting halls; floor 3 and 4 includes rooms; floor 5 to 21 includes hotel apartments. The project includes 14 Sky villa apartments, 8 with 4 bedrooms of 362m2, 18 with 3 bedrooms of 224-249m2, 78 with 2 bedrooms of 134-162m2 and 124 with 1 bedroom and studio form 58-120m2. Average price was listed at VND 44-60mil/m2
11
USD 147mil
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 20
43
Ha Tinh
14,952
47
Ho Chi Minh
- KBC: chairman of director board, CEO - SGT: Member of director board - NVB: Member of director board
- SQC: 60,000,000 shares - KBC: 101,250,000 shares - ITA: 18,663,120 shares - SGT: 17,530,370 shares
6,983
48
Binh Dinh
5,129
__
2,701
48
Ha Nam Ninh
2,548
Ho Hung Anh
41
- Techcombank: Chairman of director - MSN: 21,768,269 board shares - MSN: Deputy Chairman of director board
2,313
37
Ha Tay
1,688
__
Big shareholder
1,602
50
Hai Duong
1,470
10
41
Quang Ngai
1,413
11
__
Big shareholder
1,165
12
__
Big shareholder
1,071
13
51
Phu Yen
911
14
Ha Van Tham
39
Bac Giang
783
15
50
An Giang
771
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 21
16
55
Da Nang
771
17
__
759
18
Nguyen Son
__
Big shareholder
695
19
47
Ha Bac
693
20
Le Thi My Ngoc
__
Big shareholder
688
21
42
Hai Phong
666
22
__
Big shareholder
602
23
__
Big shareholder
602
24
__
Big shareholder
602
25
51
China
594
26
31
China
587
27
33
Tien Giang
566
28
Ly Dien Son
45
Vinh Long
539
29
__
Big shareholder
516
30
__
490
31
__
477
32
49
Thanh Hoa
474
33
51
China
- KDC, TRI: Chairman of director board - KDC: 14,507,302 shares - TLG: Deputy Chairman of director board - TLG: 200,000 shares
455
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 22
34
Vu Thi Hien
__
450
35
55
HCM
- HVG: Chairman of director board, CEO -VTF: Chairman of director board -AGF: Member of director board
446
36
__
Big shareholder
430
37
55
Hai Hung
- FPT: Deputy Chairman of director board - FIS: Member of director board - FPT: 8,087,163 shares - FTC: Member of director board
399
38
47
__
369
39
48
Binh Dinh
359
40
__
353
41
Le Phuoc Vu
48
Quang Nam
351
42
Bui Phap
49
Binh Dinh
338
43
Le Van Quang
53
__
337
44
58
Tien Giang
326
45
Tran Le Nguyen
43
China
- KDC: Deputy Chairman of director board, - KDC: 9,631,085 shares CEO - TLG: 344,910 shares
305
46
__
284
47
__
Big shareholder
282
48
52
HCM
277
49
44
Thanh Hoa
- SSI: Member of director board & Deputy - SSI: 15,687,968 shares CEO
259
50
Doan Toi
57
Thanh Hoa
246
51
54
__
216
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 23
52
Huynh Que Ha
42
China
203
53
Le Van Huong
35
Quang Ninh
202
54
53
Nam Dinh
197
55
Le Ngoc Anh
__
196
56
50
Quang Nam
180
57
Ha Hoai Nam
39
Ha Noi
177
58
__
175
59
60
Da Nag
172
60
__
171
61
__
171
62
__
171
63
__
167
64
49
Ha Noi
161
65
48
Nam Dinh
161
66
52
Ha Noi
- VIC: Member of director board & Deputy CEO - VIC:1,832,523 shares - PFV : CEO
160
67
Do Cao Bao
54
Thai Binh
- FPT: 3,123,198cp
154
68
Tran Phu My
__
- ACB:7,433,290 shares
146
69
__
- KAC: 10,279,400cp
145
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 24
70
55
Dong Thap
141
71
__
Big shareholder
- MPC:6,600,000 shares
139
72
58
Can Tho
138
73
__
- DXG:13,245,375 shares
138
74
49
Ha Noi
- SHB:21,007,443 shares
137
75
Nguyen Sy Thang
__
- PGS:5,439,800 shares
128
76
Le Quang Tien
53
Thanh Ha
- FPT:2,489,985 shares
123
77
48
Ha Noi
- HPG:6,300,000 shares
121
78
51
Ha Noi
- HPG:6,300,000 shares
121
79
47
Nam Dinh
- DTL:7,181,775 shares
116
80
54
Dong Thap
- VNS:6,150,000 shares
111
81
49
Vietnam
- SBT : Chairman of director board - STB: 60,000,000 shares - SCR : deputy Chairman of director board - SCR: 21,800 shares - BHS: Member of director board - BHS: 676,362 shares
109
82
__
Big shareholder
- SBS:25,000,000 shares
108
83
__
- DTL:6,635,708 shares
107
84
34
Gia Lai
105
85
49
China
- KDC: Member of director board & deputy - KDC: 3,297,441 shares CEO - NKD: 829,669 shares
103
86
Nguyen Van An
55
Nghe An
103
87
50
Ha Noi
- KLS:9,781,600 shares
101
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 25
88
__
Big shareholder
- SBS:23,130,000 shares
99
89
__
- STB:7,144,560 shares
99
90
58
Ha Tinh
- HDG:7,065,018 shares
94
91
35
China
94
92
__
Big shareholder
- POM:8,728,615 shares
93
93
48
China
- SQC:1,100,000 shares
92
94
47
Quang Ngai
- PDR:5,000,000 shares
92
95
__
- VIC:1,045,906 shares
92
96
__
- SSI:5,433,680 shares
90
97
__
Big shareholder
- STB:7,368,298 shares
89
98
Vo Thi Thanh
__
89
99
Vo Huu Chinh
57
Thai Binh
- VOS:22,417,700 shares
87
100
Vo Du Ngoc Tan
39
86
Disclaimer: The information herein is collected and edited by CafeF from public sources believed to be reliable, proved to be valuable for investors. However, we take no charge in any risk exposed to investors on using this report.
GOLDEN SPONSOR
Page 26