PositioningASEANbetween GlobalPowers

ProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer 14th Regional Outlook Forum RegionalOutlookForum January5,2012

Chinasmilitarybuildup China ASEANsecuritycooperation ChinaASEAN security cooperation U.S.regionalengagement ASEANcentricsecuritycooperation ASEANbetweenglobalpowers ASEAN between global powers

1.China sMilitaryBuildUp 1. Chinas Military Build Up

Chinasmilitarybuildup h l b ld andSouthChinaSea

PLAN PLAN Naval Exercises inSouth in South China Sea 201011

StrategicImplications

Woody Island

FieryCrossReef y MischiefReef

2.China ASEANSecurityCooperation 2. ChinaASEAN Security Cooperation

Exclusivist East Asia framework ExclusivistEastAsiaframework Focusontransnationalsecurityissues SupportforCBMsbutnotPreventive Diplomacy Lukewarmsupportcombinednaval exercises i Regionalsecuritytreatystillborn g y y

ChinaandASEAN China and ASEAN

Success for soft powerdiplomacy1997 Successfor softpower diplomacy 1997 2007 Lackoftransparencyinmilitarybuildup Security dilemma Securitydilemma AssertivenessinSouthChinaSea Selfhelp Support for continued U.S. engagement SupportforcontinuedU.S.engagement

3.U.S.RegionalEngagement

AndersonAirForceBaseGuam

USSMichigan USS Mi hi

USSOhio USS Ohio USSFlorida

ThreeNuclearSubmarinesSurfaceinJuly2010 Pusan,SouthKorea;SubicBay,Philippinesand DiegoGarcia,IndianOcean Diego Garcia Indian Ocean

4.ASEAN centricSecurityCooperation 4. ASEANcentric Security Cooperation

Southeast Asia autonomy SoutheastAsiaautonomy
ZOPFAN(1971) TAC (1976) TAC(1976) SEANWFZ(1995)

ASEAN ASEANscentralityinsecurityaffairs t lit i it ff i

ASEANRegionalForum EastAsiaSummit ASEANDefence MinistersMeetingPlus

ASEANDefence ASEAN Defence Ministers

ASEANcentricSecurityCooperation

ASEAN
ADMM
ADSOM ServiceChiefs

ARF
ISMMS

ASEAN+
ADMMPlus
EWGMS

APSC
AMF

AMFPlus? l ?

5.Positioning ASEANbetween AS AN b GlobalPowers Global Powers

ASEANandtheGlobalPowers ASEAN and the Global Powers

Maritime security the major issue facing Maritimesecuritythemajorissuefacing ASEANanditsrelationswithmajor powers ASEANCommunity2015?
ASEANPoliticalSecurityCommunity

ASEAN security coexists and overlays ASEANsecuritycoexistsandoverlays otherpatternsofsecuritycooperation

ASEANbetweenGlobalPowers ASEAN between Global Powers

Major power tensions will continue to be Majorpowertensionswillcontinuetobe transmittedtoSoutheastAsia ASEANs centrality may be undermined by ASEAN scentralitymaybeunderminedby unilateralactionbyamajorpower ASEAN l d ASEANleadersneedtoissuepoliticalguidance d i li i l id totheirDefence Ministers ASEANDefence Ministersneedtodirect subordinatestoaddressmaritimesecurity

SoutheastAsiasMaritimeDomain

CBMs under DOC with China underDOCwithChina

Pursuit of confidencebuilding measures with Pursuitofconfidence buildingmeasureswith Chinaamisplacedpriority This approach divides ASEAN into claimants ThisapproachdividesASEANintoclaimants andnonclaimants Thi ThisapproachpreventsASEANfromadopting h ASEAN f d i acommonpolicy Chinaabletoplayondifferencesanddelay CodeofConductforSCStoorestrictive

CodeofConductforSoutheastAsias MaritimeDomain
Two premises: Twopremises:
Securityofmaritimedomainisindivisible International law applies everywhere not just Internationallawapplieseverywherenotjust SouthChinaSea

ASEAN should get its house in order ASEANshouldgetitshouseinorder Enhanceunityandcohesiontopromote regionalautonomyandASEANscentrality i l d ASEAN li COCSoutheastAsiasMaritimeDomain

COCSEAMaritimeDomain COC SEA Maritime Domain

MaritimedisputesamongASEANmembers Maritime disputes among ASEAN members Claimstosovereigntyandsovereignrights Frameworkpendingsettlement k di l Withoutprejudice Rejectthreatoruseofforce AllmembersofASEANarestakeholders All members of ASEAN are stakeholders ReinforceASEANcorporateandlegalidentity

COCSEAMaritimeDomain COC SEA Maritime Domain

All maritime claims should be brought in line Allmaritimeclaimsshouldbebroughtinline withinternationallaw
Baselines Islandsv featuresandrocks

If Ifnegotiationfailsagreetoarbitration ti ti f il t bit ti Demilitarise featuresinSouthChinaSea CoastGuardtoprovidesecurity

COCSEAMaritimeDomain COC SEA Maritime Domain

Adopt relevant confidence building measures Adoptrelevantconfidencebuildingmeasures Disputessettlementmechanism
U d ASEAN P liti l S UnderASEANPoliticalSecurityCommunity it C it Council

Di l Dialoguepartnersandotherstakeholders t d th t k h ld shouldagreetoabidebyCOCSEA ASEANshouldstreamlineregionalarchitecture andexertleadershiponmaritimesecurity

PositioningASEANbetween Positioning ASEAN between GlobalPowers

ProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer 14th RegionalOutlookForum January5,2012 y ,