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Event Update | Tyre

January 12, 2012

CEAT
Promoters likely to raise stake
According to a press release with BSE, Ceat (CEAT) is considering to allot convertible warrants on a preferential basis to its promoters. We believe this development would improve investor sentiments on the back of promoters confidence in the prospects of the company. Earlier, in September 2010, CEAT had issued 1,712,170 convertible warrants on a preferential basis to its promoters; however, they are yet to be converted. CEATs promoters have also been steadily increasing their stake in the company to capitalize on the sharp fall in the companys stock price post the substantial increase in raw-material prices, which had impacted the companys profitability. Promoters have already hiked their stake from 48.47% in March 2010 to 50.2% as of September 2011. We estimate this stake to further increase to 52.6% upon the conversion of warrants issued in September 2010 (due for conversion in March 2012). Operating performance set to improve: CEAT is ramping up its radial capacity at the Halol plant to 150TPD, which is likely to be fully operational by 1QFY2013. As a result, we expect the companys top line to witness a 21.4% CAGR over FY2011-13E. With the completion of the proposed expansion and availability of additional radial capacity, product mix is also set to turn favorable, which is expected to fetch better margins for CEAT. Additionally, pricing action (~10% in 1HFY2012) and decline in raw-material prices (down 20% from the peak) are expected to result in a 100bp margin expansion in FY2013. Therefore, we expect the companys bottom line to report a 60.9% CAGR over FY2011-13E. Outlook and valuation: We expect CEAT to report continuous improvement in its operating performance, led by improving utilization at its Halol plant and a gradual decline in raw-material prices. Consequently, we estimate CEAT to post an EPS of `20.8 in FY2013E. At `83, CEAT is trading at 4x FY2013 earnings. We continue to maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `104, valuing it at 5.0x FY2013E earnings. We believe monetization of surplus land at Bhandup will further act as a positive trigger for the stock. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research

BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Tyre 284 0.8 123/66 59,123 10 16,038 4,831 CEAT.BO CEAT@IN

`83 `104
12 Months

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 50.2 22.9 2.0 24.9

Abs. (%) Sensex CEAT

3m 9.6

1yr

3yr 76.0

(5.4) (17.9)

(34.3) 127.2

FY2010 2,807 18.6 165 10.5 48.3 1.8 0.5 29.6 21.9 0.3 2.5

FY2011 3,469 23.6 28 (83.3) 3.1 8.0 12.7 0.4 4.3 4.9 0.3 10.9

FY2012E 4,403 26.9 13 (52.3) 3.9 3.8 21.6 0.4 2.0 5.8 0.3 8.5

FY2013E 5,111 16.1 71 443.0 5.0 20.8 4.0 0.4 10.9 9.0 0.3 5.8

Yaresh Kothari
022-39357800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

CEAT | Event Update

Profit and Loss Statement


Y/E March (` cr) Gross sales Less: Excise duty Net sales Total operating income % chg Total Expenditure Net raw materials Other Mfg costs Personnel Other EBITDA % chg (% of Net sales) Depreciation & Amortization EBIT % chg (% of Net sales) Interest & other Charges Other Income (% of PBT) Recurring PBT % chg Extraordinary Items Tax (% of PBT) PAT Adj. PAT % chg (% of Net sales) Basic EPS (`) Fully Diluted EPS (`) % chg FY08 2,603 275 2,328 2,328 9.1 2,133 1,528 205 141 258 194 41.0 8.3 33 161 51.1 6.9 66 102 74.8 197 223.9 60 49 35.6 149 88 111.5 3.8 43.4 25.8 182.1 FY09 2,611 245 2,366 2,366 1.7 2,343 1,799 211 159 175 23 1.0 26 (2) (0.1) 84 49 (134.1) (37) (0) (21) 57.1 (16) (16) (0.7) (4.7) (4.6) FY10 2,990 183 2,807 2,807 18.6 2,511 1,869 253 190 200 296 10.5 27 269 9.6 72 42 17.6 239 (0) 74 31.0 165 165 5.9 48.2 48.3 FY11 3,752 283 3,469 3,469 23.6 3,361 2,594 307 208 252 107 (63.7) 3.1 34 73 (72.8) 2.1 100 60 156.4 33 (86.1) (5) 11 28.5 22 28 (83.3) 0.8 6.5 8.0 (83.3) FY12E 4,762 359 4,403 4,403 26.9 4,231 3,247 392 266 326 172 60.3 3.9 66 106 44.9 2.4 138 50 284.5 17 (47.4) 4 25.0 13 13 (52.3) 0.3 3.8 3.8 (52.3) FY13E 5,528 417 5,111 5,111 16.1 4,856 3,714 454 309 378 256 48.5 5.0 70 185 74.5 3.6 146 58 59.4 98 457.8 26 27.0 71 71 443.0 1.4 20.8 20.8 443.0

(88.1) 1,178.1

January 12, 2012

CEAT | Event Update

Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 1,214 428 787 3 10 772 42 81 649 554 218 1,018 1,234 459 775 20 43 819 202 79 538 507 312 1,150 1,256 487 769 234 59 1,032 140 109 782 790 241 1,303 1,882 520 1,361 123 87 1,216 48 132 1,036 1,094 121 1,692 2,201 587 1,615 110 79 1,417 62 176 1,179 1,237 181 1,985 2,390 657 1,733 72 95 1,663 90 204 1,369 1,452 211 2,110 34 479 513 478 27 1,018 34 454 488 645 16 1,150 34 594 629 654 20 1,303 34 615 649 1,019 24 1,692 34 608 642 1,319 24 1,985 34 658 692 1,394 24 2,110 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

January 12, 2012

CEAT | Event Update

Cash Flow Statement


Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation Change in working capital Less: Other income Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (Inc.)/Dec. in loans and adv. Other income Cash Flow from Investing Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balance Closing Cash balance FY08 137 33 108 226 49 3 (95) 118 17 102 143 (11) (15) 16 (135) (145) 1 41 42 FY09 (37) 26 (44) (163) (21) 128 (36) (33) 3 49 (16) 168 (119) 48 160 42 202 FY10 239 27 252 204 74 241 (237) (16) (8) 42 (218) 9 (93) (84) (61) 202 140 FY11 39 34 162 99 11 124 (515) (28) 15 60 (468) 365 16 (129) 252 (92) 140 48 FY12E 17 66 3 (167) 4 249 (307) 7 (99) 50 (349) 300 8 (194) 114 14 48 62 FY13E 98 70 (26) (186) 26 302 (150) (16) (28) 58 (136) 75 20 (234) (139) 28 62 90

January 12, 2012

CEAT | Event Update

Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 0.8 2.2 2.4 0.8 17.3 (0.0) 0.7 1.5 3.7 1.4 8.2 0.7 1.8 6.8 0.8 1.7 4.7 1.3 2.0 44 45 80 15 1.9 43 48 78 22 2.3 41 45 81 14 2.2 51 44 96 9 2.2 52 46 94 8 2.2 52 46 94 9 16.9 16.7 19.8 (0.2) (0.3) (2.8) 21.9 24.4 29.6 4.9 4.7 4.3 5.8 5.8 2.0 9.0 9.6 10.9 6.9 0.6 2.8 12.3 8.8 0.8 15.2 (0.1) 0.4 2.5 (0.1) 6.4 0.8 (5.5) 9.6 0.7 2.8 18.5 7.7 0.8 26.8 2.1 0.7 2.6 3.9 8.6 1.0 (0.9) 2.4 0.8 2.6 4.7 8.9 1.6 (2.0) 3.6 0.7 2.7 7.2 7.8 1.8 6.0 43.4 25.8 35.4 4.0 149.9 (4.7) (4.6) 2.8 0.0 142.6 48.2 48.3 55.0 4.0 183.6 6.5 8.0 18.0 2.0 189.6 3.8 3.8 23.1 5.0 187.6 20.8 20.8 41.4 5.0 202.2 1.9 2.3 0.6 4.8 0.3 3.7 0.7 29.8 0.6 0.0 0.3 29.6 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.5 4.8 0.3 2.5 0.6 12.7 4.6 0.4 2.4 0.3 10.9 0.7 21.6 3.6 0.4 6.0 0.3 8.5 0.7 4.0 2.0 0.4 6.0 0.3 5.8 0.7 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

January 12, 2012

CEAT | Event Update

Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800 DISCLAIMER

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered

CEAT No Yes Yes No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) :

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

January 12, 2012

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