....................................................................................

4
..................................................................................6
..................................................................7
.......................................................................................7
......................................................14
................................................................................................20
........................................................................20
.....................................................................................33
................................................................................................42
...............................................................42
...........................................................46
................................................................................................55
................................................................................55
.................................................56
........................................................................57
......................................................58
.................................................................................................60
.........................................................................................................61
................................................................................61
................................................................................62
......................................................63
.....................................................................................65
.......................................................................67
..................................................................72
.....................................................73
............................................................................74
..................................................................75
......................................................................80
...................................................82
..............................................................82
.............................................................89
............................................................................100
.........................................................................105
...............................................105
............................................................109
...................................................................113
....................................................................118
........................................................124
......................................................................................125

 ....................................................................125
.....................................................................128
...........................................................133
...............................................................................137
.......................................137
..............................................139
..........................................145
..........................................150
..........................................................................152
...........................................................152
...........................................................152
....................................................................153
.....................................................................................154
..........................................156
................................................157
..................................................157
..........................................158
...............................................................159
....................................................................160
..................................................................162
........................................................................162
NGO ................................163
..............................................167
.......................................................168
.....................................................................169
................................................................................................172

K.Poper

200 10

1998

SARS

1/189

1/250

25

Lucian W. Pye

13

960

2002
527 GDP 4 GDP
8 GDP

GDP GDP

GDP GDP
GDP

GDP

50

72%
8.9%

400 3000

10

Tacitus

11

12

13

Al Gore Earth in the Balance

Per Bak Kan Chen

Bak Chen self-organized

criticality


NGO

SARS

2300

 35 10
35
5

1989

1992

B
C
D

E

1987 ()
17 7

17

1 n

1
2

12

________________________________________
n n

12

n

n n

260
9300

36

10
40
3300
80


1995
4

31 2500

8000
2500
4000 14
2000 8 8
2500 2500
9
8 14 4000
4000
4000 17

2000

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

9256
9079
8642
8329
7438
6744
6440
6028
5986
4677
4489
4288
4238
4140
3689
3605
3525
3471
3297
3090
2728
2562
2376
1925
1674
1382
1001
787
562
518
262

n
n

1 1
1

20 8
8

3


1
2
34

a)

b)

49.9

3 22 10
8,877,690
40 500
3.310042410797E+1134 1,135
/

Christopher J.Matthews

10

100 60
60

10

98.5
80

80

8
89000 2002 6
67000 4
2001 27

No

No

2001
27

50

10

11

2000 2000
10 36.5
73000

400
400

2
8
32
3
48 1
16

1936

2000
30
43 4

0.3%

2000

A n
A

A n B B
B B

B

n n

n n
n
n

G. Sartori

Sartori

Sartori

Sartori


Sartori

 N
N N
N
N

31

Gene Sharp


Gene Sharp 198
54 103 41
Gene Sharp

Gene Sharp

1980

240

95.46%
57.93%
70.84%

1999
4 5731 53 2544
2000

1999
14.7 10.5
2000
15%
15%

31

31


31 1/31

645.67

2000 40

15 12 20
60
2.9
20 7
96.9
1.8 50
5 80
5 37.51

1505267 96.9% 24.79

14.93%

2869885 89.4% 11.37 6.85%

1465805
75.5%
12.41 7.48%
380192
69.3%
6.97
4.20%

268283

63.9% 6.73 4.05%

 6489432

62.27 37.51%

1998

320 143
0.004 0.005%

4
3 2
1 1

5.68

9.39

11.62
26.69

16.08%

2.45
47.42
49.87 30.04%

7.76 4.67%

6.73

4.05%

91.05

54.85%

272
1700 43.6 39.3

30 47

4.5
34.3
6.8 13

11.3 4.1

72.7

7.43 1998

13

1:7

750
200

34
34

17

1918

G. Sartori

15.9 2002

NGO

NGO

2 NGO

NGO
NGO
NGO
NGO
NGO NGO
NGO
NGO
NGO

NGO

NGO
NGO

NGO

35

n
n

 5 10

1997 26.2 2002

15.9 5 40

2003 6 2004 6
2004 7 9