Eurocontrol

EUROCONTROL
Medium-Term Forecast
February 2012
Flight Movements
2012 - 2018
EUROCONTROL
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report presents the February 2012 update of the EUROCONTROL Medium-Term flight
forecast. The forecast considers the development of air traffic in Europe over the next
7 years.
In recent months, Europe has seen a 5 percentage point drop in flight growth and a cut in the
economic growth forecast for 2012 from 1.7% to 0%. This drop in flight growth is sooner and
deeper than the economic indicator would suggest. These two factors have strongly
influenced the short-term outlook for flights leading to a downward revision on the forecast
issued in October 2011.
Over the full 7 years of the forecast Europe 1 is expected to grow to 11.3 million IFR flights in
2018, 16% more than in 2011. However, traffic in 2012 will decline (below -1% on 2011) and
an anaemic recovery in traffic growth (+1.5%) is expected for 2013. The average growth rate
over the 7 years remains weak at around 2% per year.
This forecast predicts that European traffic will reach the 10 million-per-year mark first
passed in 2007 by 2014, two years later than last years prediction of 2012.
Figure 1. Summary of the forecast for the ESRA08 2 .
2006 2007
Annual Growth
(compared to
previous year)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

.
2015
2016
2017
2018
. 9,759 9,999 10,414 10,805 11,229 11,693 12,057
3.0%
B 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,658 9,803 10,078 10,372 10,686 11,002 11,305
2.1%
H
IFR Movements
(thousands)
2008
. 9,565 9,626
9,778
9,968 10,182 10,365 10,560
1.1%
. -0.3%
2.5%
4.1%
3.8%
3.9%
4.1%
3.1%
3.0%
3.7%
5.0%
0.4% -6.6%
0.8%
3.1% -1.3%
1.5%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.1%
. -2.2%
0.6%
1.6%
1.9%
2.2%
1.8%
1.9%
1.1%
Short-Term (2012-2013)
European flights in 2012 are expected to decline by 1.3% (+/-1%). This decline is widespread
amongst the busiest states in Western Europe and spreads out to Mediterranean countries
(except Malta). The traffic forecast is largely influenced by the poor economic outlook and the
declines in traffic growth since the beginning of the Winter timetable.
On top of these factors, the 2012 European flight forecast also reflects
a slow recovery of traffic following the end of the Arab Spring,
the flat to negative prospects for Summer flight growth (based on the schedules).
To the East, traffic growth remains positive in nearly all emerging markets though at slower
rates than the past two years.
1
2
Europe is represented by the EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA), see Annex B.
EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area in the extended 2008 definition (see Annex B).
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AAGR
2018/
2011
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Current growth trends are strongly influenced at the regional and local levels by a number of
factors and events. These imply specific risks to the forecast. In several cases where
recovery could be faster than anticipated, these are upside risks and traffic growth might be
stronger. Risk areas include: recovery of flights to Egypt, which affects much of South-East
Europe but particularly Cyprus and Turkey; reactions to the failures of Spanair and Malev
(which cut 1% from total flights); airlines continuing revisions to their plans for the Summer;
the restoration of Libyan overflights; growth to and from Russia and the recent climb in fuel
prices.
At European level, 2013 sees a weak flight growth: +1.5% (+/-1%) with same level of traffic
as in 2011 expected overall. Economic forecasts for 2013 have also seen recent downward
revisions. Figure 2 shows disparities observed at State level in average growth rates over the
first 2 years of the forecast. Some States (eg. UK, Spain, Italy) will struggle to come back to
positive growth (compared to 2011) while others, on the east, will show strong growth levels
of around 5%.
Figure 2. Average annual growth 2011-2013 for each State.
Medium-Term (to 2018)

For the 2014-2018 period, traffic growth is expected to remain stable at around 3%.This is a
slightly faster rate of flight growth than previously expected, but still below the pre-2009 longterm trend. This means a 6-7 year hiatus in flight growth; longer than the 4-year gaps
following the escalation of oil prices in 1980 or the over expansion of the late 1990s (see
Figure 18 in the report).
Again, some differences are observed at State level: growth is clearly stronger in the
East (Figure 3).
Over the whole period, a number of effects will reduce growth:
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Lack of airport capacity means a reduction of around 134,000 IFR departures

(1.2% off total growth over 7 years);
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Continuing improvements to the high-speed train network reduce growth by around

47,000 IFR departures (0.4% off total growth to 2018) in Europe;
Aviation has now joined the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), reducing growth
by a further 0.2% in Europe over the 7 years.
Figure 3. Average annual growth 2011-2018 for each State.
Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to highgrowth) as an indicator of risk as part of the risk management process, notably during
planning activities. This forecast includes upside and downside risks discussed in the report
(section 4.1) and, by 2018, the high-growth scenario has around 750,000 more flights
compared to the base-scenario (+6.6%); the low-growth scenario has around the same
number of flights fewer (-6.6%).
The EUROCONTROL 7-year flight forecast will next be refreshed in September 2012. The
first two years will also be updated in May 2012.
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EUROPEAN ORGANISATION
FOR THE SAFETY OF AIR NAVIGATION
EUROCONTROL
EUROCONTROL MediumTerm Forecast: IFR Flight

Movements 2012-2018
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v1.0
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EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME
DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS
TITLE
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight

Movements 2012-2018
Publications Reference:
Document Identifier
STATFOR Doc455
Edition Number:
Edition Date:
12/02/27-44
v1.0
28/02/2012
Abstract
This report presents the 2012 update of the EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast of instrument flight
rules (IFR) flights in Europe in 2012-2018. It has been prepared by the EUROCONTROL Statistics
and Forecast Service (STATFOR) in November-February 2012 and it replaces the Medium-Term
flight forecast of October 2011 and the Short-Term flight forecast of December 2011.
This document contains a description and discussion of the main results. The details of the
forecasts for individual States are available on STATFOR website (www.eurocontrol.int/statfor).
STATFOR
Movements
Forecast
Flight Movements
Keywords
Medium-Term
Trends
Contact Person(s)
Traffic Flow
Tel
X3346
Claire Leleu
Unit
DNM/STATFOR
STATUS, AUDIENCE AND ACCESSIBILITY

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DOCUMENT APPROVAL
The following table identifies all management authorities who have successively approved
the present issue of this document.
2012 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).
This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole
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The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified.
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DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD

The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present
document.
EDITION
NUMBER
EDITION
DATE
v0.1
20/01/12
Draft version
All
v1.0
28/02/12
Final version
All
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INFOCENTRE
REFERENCE
REASON FOR CHANGE
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PAGES
AFFECTED
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................8
1.1
General......................................................................................................................................8
1.2
Summary of Forecast Method...................................................................................................8
2. TRAFFIC IN 2011 .................................................................................................9

3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................14
4. GROWTH IN IFR Flight MOVEMENTS TO 2018 ...............................................17
4.1
Summary of growth .................................................................................................................17
4.2
Other risks to the Forecast......................................................................................................22
4.3
Airport constraints ...................................................................................................................23
4.4
High-Speed Train ....................................................................................................................24
4.5
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)..........................................................................................25
4.6
Comparison with earlier forecasts...........................................................................................26
5. GLOSSARY ........................................................................................................27
Annex A.
FORECAST METHOD...................................................................28
Annex B.
TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS .................................................32
B.1
ESRA08...................................................................................................................................32
B.2
Traffic regions .........................................................................................................................32
B.3
Functional Airspace Blocks .....................................................................................................33
Annex C.
SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS...............................34
C.1
Economic Growth....................................................................................................................34
C.2
Low-Cost Carrier Growth ........................................................................................................37
C.3
High-Speed Train Network Development ...............................................................................39
C.4
Airport Capacity.......................................................................................................................41
C.5
Load Factors ...........................................................................................................................41
C.6
Events and Trends ..................................................................................................................43
C.7
Airport Traffic Switch ...............................................................................................................45
C.8
Emissions Trading Scheme ....................................................................................................46
Annex D.
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ESRA ......................48
Annex E.
FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH.......................................................51
E.1
Summary of the Forecast. Annual IFR Movements 2006-2018..............................................51
E.2
Summary of the Forecast. Growth Rates 2006-2018 .............................................................56
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Annex F.
REFERENCES .......................................................................................61
List of Figures.
Figure 1. Summary of the forecast for the ESRA08. ................................................................. i
Figure 2. Average annual growth 2011-2013 for each State.................................................... ii
Figure 3. Average annual growth 2011-2018 for each State................................................... iii
Figure 4. Actual traffic compared with the forecast of December 2010....................................9
Figure 5. Growth in 2011 was particularly strong around the Baltic, in Turkey, the
Netherlands and Ukraine. ...............................................................................................10
Figure 6. European neighbours: Strong Russian growth balances North African downturn. .11
Figure 7. Load factors in Europe remained near record levels. (intra-Europe traffic) ............11
Figure 8. Oil prices remained mostly above $100/bl in 2011. ................................................11
Figure 9. Traditional scheduled carriers took over as the fastest-growing market segment ..12
Figure 10. Market shares of the main segments hardly changed in 2011..............................12
Figure 11. GDP forecast have seen strong downward revisions. ..........................................14
Figure 12. Underlying growth for busiest States shows further falls in 2012..........................15
Figure 13. Summary of the forecast for Europe (ESRA08). ...................................................17
Figure 14. Forecast for 2012 in Europe is for a widespread decline. (Uncertainty is typically
1.0% percentage points)................................................................................................18
Figure 15. Forecast for 2013 in Europe is for a weak growth. (Uncertainty is typically 0.9
percentage points) ..........................................................................................................19
Figure 16. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2013 vs 2011). ...........19
Figure 17. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2018 v 2011)..............21
Figure 18. IFR flight growth in Europe is now persistently below the pre-2009 long-term
trend. ...............................................................................................................................21
Figure 19. Impact of airport constraints..................................................................................23
Figure 20. Impact of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08 (top) and
most affected States (bottom). ........................................................................................24
Figure 21. Impact of ETS: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08 due to aviations
participation in the scheme. ............................................................................................25
Figure 22. Forecast for the ESRA08 has been revised downwards (MTF11b dashed lines,
MTF12 solid lines)...........................................................................................................26
Figure 23. Summary of short-term forecast method...............................................................28
Figure 24. Preparation process of the Medium-Term Forecast..............................................30
Figure 25. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ...............................................32
Figure 26. Regions used in flow statistics. .............................................................................33
Figure 27. FAB initiatives as of January 2011. (Source: EUROCONTROL PRU) .................33
Figure 28. Changes per State in economic forecast for 2012 for this flight forecast..............34
Figure 29. Since the previous forecast, the economic outlook for EU27 has significantly
worsened.........................................................................................................................35
Figure 30. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2012-2018: nearly all States see
reduction in 2012 and 2013.............................................................................................35
Figure 31. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone.................................................................................36
Figure 32. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone ..............................................................37
Figure 33. GDP Growth by Traffic Region..............................................................................37
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Figure 34. Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone ..........................................................................38

Figure 35. High-Speed Train Times .......................................................................................39
Figure 36. Example load factor forecast, for Europe.............................................................42
Figure 37. Load factors by Traffic Region ..............................................................................42
Figure 38. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone..................................................44
Figure 39. Airport traffic switch...............................................................................................46
Figure 40. ETS assumptions ..................................................................................................46
Figure 41. Prices ....................................................................................................................47
Figure 42. Price Elasticities per (bidirectional) Traffic Region Pair and period ......................47
Figure 43. Growth in Europe ..................................................................................................48
Figure 44. Traffic on the main flow categories for the ESRA .................................................49
Figure 45. Traffic and growth on the biggest region-to-region flows through the ESRA. .......50
Figure 46. Annual traffic per traffic zone and 2012-2018 average annual growth..................51
Figure 47. Annual growth rates per traffic zone and 2012-2018 average annual growth.......56
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1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
General
This report presents the forecast of annual numbers of instrument flight rules (IFR)
flight movements for 2012 to 2018, prepared by the EUROCONTROL Statistics and
Forecast Service (STATFOR) in December 2011-February 2012. This replaces the
forecast issued in September 2011 (Ref. 1).
This report contains a summary and discussion of the forecast, starting with a
discussion of traffic in 2011 (section 2), the assumptions made in the forecast
scenarios (section 3) and some highlights from the forecast results (section 4). More
details are provided in the annexes: forecast method (Annex A), geographical
definitions (Annex B), forecast assumptions (Annex C), forecast details for Europe as
a whole (Annex D) and annual total forecasts per State (Annex E). The detail for each
traffic zone (usually the same as State) is provided on STATFOR website (Ref. 2).
STATFOR also prepares a long-term forecast (20 years) available in summary on the
STATFOR web pages (Ref. 3).
1.2
Summary of Forecast Method

The EUROCONTROL 7-year flight forecast grows airport-pair traffic using
models of recent trends, and of future economic and industry developments.
The 7-year forecast is a blend of two forecasting methods: time-series modelling of
recent traffic trends; and a model of future flight demand based on economic growth
and other developments. The trend-based modelling provides better accuracy in the
first years, so is more influential in the blend in the first two years. The economic and
industry modelling has more influence on the results for the later years.
The time-series modelling looks at recent and longer-term patterns of growth and
seasonality, taking into account information about one-off events, about economic
growth and available data on the airline schedules for the coming months.
The economic model is developed by growing baseline traffic (all IFR flight
movements for the last calendar year) taking into account factors such as economic
growth, past patterns of supply, the growth of low-cost carriers, and the influence
of high-speed trains.
The results of these processes are then constrained by annual airport capacities
and converted from airport-to-airport counts into flights through airspace volumes
using the flight patterns in the last 12 months and recent trends in how these patterns
are changing. No account of future route network changes is made (see section 4.2).
More detail of the method is given in Annex A.
Three scenarios are used to capture the likely range of growth of flight movements.
They comprise: the low-growth and high-growth scenario which vary economic
growth, load factors and other variables in order to capture the most-likely range; and
the baseline forecast which is a guidance figure within this range. The scenarios are
discussed in section 3 and detailed in annex B.1.
Experience in recent years has shown the need to take the whole forecast range
(from low-growth to high-growth) into account. For this new forecast, the main areas
of risk are discussed in section 4.1.
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2.
TRAFFIC IN 2011
2011 followed a trend of weak traffic growth, becoming weaker still with the new
Winter 11/12 timetable. Overall, growth appeared stronger than it really was due
to cancellations in 2010. There were some hotspots, notably in the East and
Scandinavia.
Any discussion of 2011 traffic trends must start in 2010, which was a weak year for
European air traffic, but the particular legacy of interest for 2011 was the 170,000
flights that were cancelled due to the ash-cloud, snow and strikes. Since 2011 saw
fewer than 25,000 cancellations 3 , we saw bounce-back events throughout 2011 but
particularly in April 2011 and December 2011. Indeed April saw growth jumping to an
unlikely-sounding 16%. Overall, that difference of around 150,000 cancellations
inflated the flight growth of 2011 by some 1.5% for Europe 4 .
This bounce-back is a substantial part of the overall growth in flights of 3.1% in 2011.
It means that the underlying trend during the year was only for between 1.5% and 2%
growth, as aviation in Europe remained under the pressure of an unfavourable
economic situation. Looking back, we can identify three phases of the year (Figure 4):
For the first few months, the weak underlying growth was masked by
cancellations at the start of 2010, and by a hesitant optimism in the industry that
was due to high load factors and an apparent improvement particular at the
premium end of the market. Reductions in flights to Tunisia and particularly Egypt
prevented any recovery from lifting the growth trend.
Over the Summer, the underlying trend changed little, though it was slightly above
the expectation of the May forecast. However, the mood of optimism began to
disappear as economic forecasts and industry-sentiment indicators declined, and
in our own industry the signs also turned downwards, with cargo load factors
leading the way.
The Winter 11/12 timetable saw a sharp deceleration, as several carriers cut back
to below the flight numbers of the previous Winter and warned of weak forward
bookings.
Figure 4. Actual traffic compared with the forecast of December 2010.
3
4
This preliminary estimate undercounts the effects of events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya (see below).
Here Europe is used to mean ESRA08. See Annex B for definition.
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This annual average masks a geographically varied situation (Figure 5). Strong
growth was seen around the Baltic (extending also to Norway and the Netherlands)
and in Turkey and the Ukraine. Figure 5 just covers the period May to November to
avoid the confusion of the ash-cloud and snow bounce-back, but this still exaggerates
French growth due to the strike cancellations in the period in 2010. Notably Germany,
which as a large State would be expected to be to the left-hand side, does not appear
at all in Figure 5 due to static traffic in part as a result of airlines response to a new
departure tax.
In spite of its open skies agreement with the EU, Morocco saw a downturn in
arrivals/departures in parallel with that elsewhere in North Africa, if not as large. The
strength of the Canary Islands, which appears to be growing internally and as a
replacement Winter sun destination, however, boosted Moroccos overflights.
Further afield, the effects of the Arab Spring are also evident in Figure 6: declines of
80-90 departures/day to Egypt and Tunisia together over the Summer months. This is
160-180 flights/day in both directions (the units of Figure 5), meaning that this nearly
cancelled out the Turkish growth. Indeed, taken over the whole year, this suggests
perhaps 50,000 flights fewer than expected 5 . By the same arithmetic, the growth
to/from Russia of perhaps 140 flights/day places the Russian flow as the secondlargest contributor to growth overall in Europe, after Turkey.
Figure 5. Growth in 2011 was particularly strong around the Baltic, in Turkey,
the Netherlands and Ukraine.
These are not necessarily cancellations in the same sense as those caused by snow or strike, so dont get captured by the
cancellation calculations.
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Figure 6. European neighbours: Strong Russian growth balances North African

downturn.
Figure 7. Load factors in Europe remained near record levels. (intra-Europe traffic)
Figure 8. Oil prices remained mostly above $100/bl in 2011.
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Figure 9. Traditional scheduled carriers took over as the fastest-growing market

segment
Figure 10. Market shares of the main segments hardly changed in 2011.
For commercial carriers, load factors remained near record levels (Figure 7), although
they began to weaken in the Autumn, especially on the high-yield Asian flow. Oil
prices have now spent 12 months near 80/barrel (Figure 8) and the weakening euro
of recent months suggests that fuel prices will become more difficult yet.
2011 saw a marked change in the relationships between the main market segments,
as their growth patterns (Figure 9) became more synchronised than recently seen:
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The traditional scheduled carriers grew the fastest, at 4.1%. This is the first time
they have out-grown the low-cost carriers in percentage terms since the early
1990s.
The low-cost carriers had a year of much more moderate growth plans than in the
past, managing 3.9% flight growth. Some did better out of the strength around the
Baltic, but the Winter saw a sharp scaling back.
The (tourist) charter segment had a particularly difficult year (non-scheduled in

Figure 9), being the most affected by the drop in traffic to the winter leisure
markets of Tunisia and Egypt; although some were insulated a little from this by
their past diversification into scheduled operations. It declined by 5.8%.
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All-cargo saw warning signs in tonnage and load factors over the Summer; and
the flights finally went into decline in the Autumn. Over the year as a whole it
achieved 2.9% flight growth.
Business aviation (2.3% increase) saw a similar evolution, but a slightly lower
annual figure as there was less bounce in April, since it was least affected by ash
in April 2010.
The result of all of this was that their respective market shares hardly changed
(Figure 10); charter lost 0.5% points, which the traditional segment gained when
compared to 2011 figures.
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3.
FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS

The forecast is driven by past traffic trends and by scenario assumptions for
the future. The downward revision in the new forecast starts from a
deceleration in flight growth of around 5 percentage points since the end of the
Summer timetable. While this is partly explained by a cut in forecast economic
growth (equivalent to a 2.5%-3% drop in flights) it is an earlier and deeper
decline than economics alone would suggest.
The forecast is derived from historical traffic data and a set of scenario assumptions
(listed in Annex C). The downward revision in the forecast can be understood from
these data. In particular, since the 7-year forecast was last published in October the
inputs have changed in two important respects: GDP and flight growth. These
changes are behind a strong downward revision, even if our judgement is that this
revision may now have left us with up-side risks.
Firstly GDP forecasts, especially for 2012, have seen strong downward revision
during 2011, and particularly since the Summer (Figure 11). The last GDP forecast
that we used was for 1.7% growth in 2012 at the EU level, but this is now cut to 0%
for this update. This 1.7% revision alone would be expected to cut the flight growth
forecast by between 2.5% and 3%. The weaker economic situation continues into
2013 (more detail on this in Annex C.1.)
Figure 11. GDP forecast have seen strong downward revisions.
There was a sharp deceleration in flight growth from the end of October (Figure 4),
which had been flagged in advance by some carriers, but the extent of the downturn
was beyond expectations. This downturn had some limited influence on the
December forecast, whose input data included one month of the declining traffic. If
anything, this deceleration is even stronger since the beginning of 2012, with some
operators making further cuts, in addition to the collapse of Malev and Spanair (which
had 1% of European flights between them in 2011). Figure 12 uses the median daily
growth in the month, to give an approximate idea of the underlying trend largely
insulated from spikes due to weather and strikes. For the busiest five States, the
downward shift is perhaps 5% points since October, which is more than would be
expected from economic reasons alone. Now with three months of this downturn
feeding into the short-term forecast, the effect on the forecast is much more marked.
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Figure 12. Underlying growth for busiest States shows further falls in 2012.
-5%
Amongst the explanations for a decline in flights that is sooner and deeper than the
economic factors would imply are two factors which are not fully represented in the
forecast, but clearly weigh on the outlook for 2012. They are: the fuel price, which
has been quoted by many airlines as causing difficulties, and now seems to be
climbing further due to tensions between Europe and Iran, with the Brent crude price
at record levels in euro terms; and the weakness of national airlines, with a large
number of States looking to reduce or dispose of their stakes, leaving limited scope
for further re-capitalisation. We estimate that airlines with more than 6% of 2011
European flights are up for sale, in bankruptcy protection or else struggling to finance
their operations.
Some of the growth areas seen last Summer (Figure 5) have lost all or most of their
strength over the Winter: notably Canaries, Finland and Sweden. This weakness has
been picked up in the forecast. However, here there is an upside risk, with limited
visibility in the schedule data for the Summer of whether Canaries will return to being
a destination of choice as an alternative to North Africa.
The traffic disruption that followed the Arab Spring is represented in the forecasts
both as historical data and as assumptions for the continuing recovery. Twelve
months on from the sharpest downturn to Egypt, we are seeing some recovery in the
overflights for States such as Cyprus and Turkey. The timing and extent of this
recovery is uncertain; our assessment is that this probably represents an upside
rather than a downside risk.
Other inputs include:
Low-cost. For this forecast we have reviewed the assumptions about low-cost
market share growth to take account of the fact that this market share is now
growing more slowly, if at all in recent years. These are discussed in detail in
Annex C.2. The effect is most marked for larger States, where the market share
grows more slowly than in previous forecasts, or indeed in the low-growth
scenario might see a small contraction.
High-Speed Rail: In spite of the economic downturn, high-speed rail

developments continue to complete and deliver travel time savings. Over the next
7 years, there are an increasing number of cross-border connections or
improvements, such as Lisbon-Madrid, Amsterdam-London, Madrid-Bordeaux,
Paris-Barcelona, Zurich-Paris. (Annex C.3)
Airport capacity: These numbers have been refreshed, following data provided
by STATFOR User Group members, or by airports directly to EUROCONTROL.
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The main change has been the addition of capacity for the third airport in Istanbul,
which leads to faster growth from 2017. (Annex C.4)
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Load factors: Our forecasts generally project these to increase further, although
only by a couple of percentage points in the case of intra-Europe traffic. After
growth in load factors levelled off last year, the question must be asked whether
they have now reached a practical maximum. If so, we may be underestimating
flight growth. (Annex C.5)
Events and trends: As well as Euro12, Olympics, Croatia & Icelandic accession
to the EU and relaxation of visa requirements in the Balkans, we have included a
scenario for the continuing recovery of traffic to/from Egypt, Tunisia and Libya.
Twelve months on, the sharp decline is dropping out of the tables. Other possible
scenarios certainly exist, and the knock-on effects of this for Malta and others
require further validation. (Annex C.6)
Emissions trading: This began in 2012, and is modelled as in previous forecasts.

(Annex C.8)
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4.
GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHT MOVEMENTS TO 2018
4.1
Summary of growth
As a result of the current poor economic outlook, which is for stagnation or
weak growth, and the current traffic situation, which saw cutbacks in flights
this Winter, we now forecast a decline in 2012, followed by a weak recovery in
2013. Over the remaining years of the forecast, flight growth is stronger at
around 3% per year. This, however, reflects a long-term growth trend that is
forecast to be lower than in the past. Total traffic reaches 11.3 Million flights in
2018.
Figure 13. Summary of the forecast for Europe (ESRA08).
2006
.
Annual Growth
(compared to
previous year)
2008
.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
. 9,759 9,999 10,414 10,805 11,229 11,693
12,057
3.0%
B 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,658 9,803 10,078 10,372 10,686 11,002
11,305
2.1%
H
IFR Movements
(thousands)
2007
AAGR
2018/
2011
. 9,565 9,626
. -0.3%
2.5%
4.1%
3.8%
3.9%
4.1%
3.1%
3.7%
5.0%
0.4% -6.6%
0.8%
3.1% -1.3%
1.5%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.1%
. -2.2%
0.6%
1.6%
1.9%
2.2%
1.8%
1.9%
1.1%
9,778
9,968 10,182 10,365
10,560
Short-Term outlook (2012-2013)

As a result of the poor economic outlook, which is for stagnation or weak
growth, and the current traffic situation, which saw cutbacks in flights this
Winter, we now forecast a decline in 2012, followed by a weak recovery in 2013
(Figure 13).
The previous section has described how this update of the forecast is particularly
influenced by the drop in flights of 5 percentage points this Winter and a cut in the
economic growth forecast for 2012 from 1.7% to 0%. This drop in flight growth is
sooner and deeper than the economic forecast would suggest. These two factors
have strongly influenced the short-term outlook for flights which is that European
flights in 2012 are expected to decline by -1.3% (+/-1%) (Figure 14). This decline is
widespread amongst the busiest states in Western Europe and spreads out to
Mediterranean countries (except Malta).
On top of these factors, the 2012 European flight forecast also reflects
a slow recovery of traffic following the end of the Arab Spring,
the flat to negative prospects for Summer capacities.
On the Eastern side, traffic growth remains positive in nearly all emerging markets
though at slower rates than the past two years.
Growth forecasts for all States are provided in Annex E, and in more detail on the
STATFOR interactive dashboard (Ref. 2).
Released Issue
Page 17
1.1%
3.0%
Current growth trends are strongly influenced at the regional and local levels by a
number of factors and events. These imply specific risks to the forecast:
The forecast includes a scenario for recovery of Egypt traffic. However, variations
in this would change the recovery in overflights, in particular for Cyprus and
Turkey, but indeed for much of South-East Europe. We believe this to be on
balance an upside risk, with recovery faster than currently forecast.
The recent failures of Spanair and Malev have cut 1% off total flights, with much
larger effects locally. On the one hand, we have assumed some limited
substitution by other carriers, on the other there is an upside risk of more
extensive replacement which would improve traffic growth in Spain, Canaries and
Hungary.
Information on capacity for the Summer remains incomplete, and airlines continue
to review their plans. We assess this on balance to be an upside risk, of stronger
growth than currently in the forecast.
The restoration of Libyan overflights has significant implications for Malta and, to a
lesser extent, Italy. This we also assess to be on balance a downside risk for the
short-term, with a less complete restoration of flights.
Growth in flights to/from Russia has been an important contributor to growth,

especially for States in central and North-East Europe (section 2), if this growth
continues, and particularly if the Russia-Egypt flow recovers more strongly, then
there is a risk of faster growth overall.
Figure 14. Forecast for 2012 in Europe is for a widespread decline. (Uncertainty is
typically 1.0% percentage points)
Page 18
Released Issue
The economic downward revisions extend into 2013, which is now expected to see a
1.5% traffic growth (1%) across Europe (Figure 15).
Figure 15. Forecast for 2013 in Europe is for a weak growth. (Uncertainty is typically
0.9 percentage points)
Figure 16. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2013 vs
2011).
Released Issue
Page 19
Medium-Term outlook (to 2018)

Over the remaining years of the forecast, flight growth is stronger at around 3%
per year. This reflects a long-term growth trend that is forecast to be lower than
in the past, reaching 11.3 Million flights in 2018.
After 2013, growth is expected to follow a trend of about 3% growth per year (Figure
13). The previous peak annual traffic (10.1 Million flights in 2008) will be reached
again in 2014. This means a 6-7 year hiatus in flight growth, longer than the 4-year
hiatus after the 2000 and 1980 peaks 6 . Due to the weak start in 2012 and into 2013,
the average growth between 2011 and 2018 is just 2.1%. The high- and low-growth
scenarios are each around 1 percentage point from this.
As in recent years, the traffic development is not uniform across the region as Figure
3 in the executive summary illustrates. Growth (in percentage terms) is clearly
stronger in the East (see Annex E.2). In contrast, in terms of the number of additional
movements per day, the traffic will increase the most in the busy States Western
Europe (eg. Germany) but also in Turkey and Ukraine, which are forecast to see
some of the strongest traffic growth in Europe (see Figure 17).
Figure 18 illustrates that flight growth is now well below the pre-2009 long-term trend
line, and is forecast to remain below that trend. There are some upside risks, but
there are also good reasons for the future long-term trends to be lower than that
observed in the past. In particular, we can identify two major factors that have
contributed to strong growth in the last 20 years, but which now appear to be running
out of steam:
Deregulation of air transport in Europe around 1990 allowed supply to match

demand more accurately, as well as contributing to the growth of the low-cost
market segment. However, for several North-West European states, there is
increasing evidence through long-term stagnation or decline of shorter-haul
markets that the number of under-served markets is limited. Nevertheless,
deregulation of medium- or longer-haul remains a possible source of growth.
The expansion of the EU in 2004 and 2007 extended the area of air transport
deregulation, but more importantly introduced free trade and free movement of
people and businesses. This provided a one-off boost to demand which has now
run its course, though there are still some States that could be included.
The over-expansion in the late 1990s and the escalation of oil prices in 1980.
Page 20
Released Issue
Figure 17. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2018 v
2011).
Figure 18. IFR flight growth in Europe is now persistently below the pre-2009
long-term trend.
15
30%
Long-Term Trend
Before 2009
10
1960-2011 historical figures

2012-2018 forecast
25%
20%
Actual
Traffic
Forecast
Traffic
Long-Term
Average
Growth
15%
10%
5%
0%
Annual
Growth
-5%
1960
-5
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
EUROCONTROL 2012. w w w .eurocontrol.int/statfor
Released Issue
Annual Growth
Flights in Europe (Million)
IFR traffic in Europe
-10%
Page 21
4.2
Other risks to the Forecast

Users of the forecast are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to
high-growth) as an indicator of risk. A number of specific risks, particularly for the
short-term, have just been discussed (section 4.1). More generally, we identify:
Page 22
This forecast is prepared as the economic forecasts in Europe have again been
revised downwards. Nevertheless, there has been some relatively good news and
it is possible that we are reaching the end of the downward revisions. The
uncertainty in economic growth has a direct impact on flight growth for Europe as
a whole. Traffic growth is riding on the outcome of the crisis as well as the speed
of the recovery.
In some States, the economic situation remains severe, with the potential for
significant falls in GDP. These risks are highly uneven across Europe.
Network changes and the route choice of airlines have a large influence on the
number of overflights. The recent events in North Africa have an important impact
on overflight figures for Malta and Cyprus mainly, but also in Italy and the
Balkans. We have included only one of a number of different recovery patterns.
More generally, recent refinements in the forecast method will better capture the
recent trends in overflights, but future network changes (eg. routings) are not
modelled by the forecast.
Tourism trends are quite variable and sensitive to the political climate in the
destination country. Although the growth at destinations that can substitute for
North Africa, such as Canaries, was strong last year, it is now much less so. A
further burst of growth, as a substitute, would be possible but is not included in the
forecast.
Oil prices have been relatively stable, but at a very high level, for the last 12
months. With fuel accounting for 30-40% or even more of costs of the airlines, this
has a significant effect on fares and cost of travel for customer. The jump in recent
weeks of the price of crude oil in euro terms to record levels has not been
explicitly factored into this forecast.
Participation of aviation in the Emissions Trading Scheme is integrated into the

forecast. However, recent experience has shown that national taxes in particular
can rapidly change the local outlook for flight growth.
Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters, socio-economic changes and

epidemics. The last seven years have not been quiet ones for aviation. There is
no reason to believe the next seven years will be uneventful. The impact on air
traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant.
Released Issue
4.3
Airport constraints
Constraints at airports mean that demand for some 134,000 flights cannot be
accommodated by 2018, which means a 1.2% reduction in growth over 20112018. This is a similar total to last years forecast, even though the new forecast
is lower. The location of the constrained airports also differs, with the new
airport for Istanbul making a significant difference in Turkey.
This forecast uses a refreshed set of airport capacity figures covering some 159
airports, building on:
The work done for the Long-Term Forecast 2010 (Ref. 9) and Challenges of
Growth 2008 (Ref. 4),
The data submitted directly by STATFOR User Group members,
Data compiled by the EUROCONTROL Airport unit from submissions from around
30 airports.
In the baseline scenario in 2018, demand for around 134,000 departures will not be
accommodated due to airport congestion (Figure 19, mainly in UK, Netherlands,
France and Germany). This will reduce the growth in departures by 1.2% across
Europe as a whole between 2011 and 2018. The reduction in growth will, of course,
be more marked in the States with congested airports, and is more significant in the
high-growth scenario.
There has been a geographical shift in the location of the most constrained airports
as some capacity figures have been revised downwards (the Netherlands, Germany,
UK, Hungary, Switzerland and Austria) while others have been revised upwards (Italy,
Belgium and Sweden). In particular, capacity in Turkey has been boosted to simulate
the presence of a third airport in the capital from 2017 (see Annex C.4). Overall, and
despite a lower traffic forecast, the number of unaccommodated flights is similar to
the one in the previous Medium-Term Forecast (excess demand of around 100,000
departures in 2017 in MTF11, see Ref. 5 compared to 98,000 in this forecast).
Figure 19. Impact of airport constraints.
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when airport constraints are taken into account
Change in IFR Departures (000s)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Percentage Change
2018
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
High
24.3
27.5
80.6
140.0
210.8
197.7
342.7
0.2%
0.3%
0.8%
1.3%
1.8%
1.6%
2.8%
Base
16.2
17.9
42.9
73.3
120.2
97.9
134.0
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
1.2%
Low
10.3
11.5
21.6
43.5
70.5
56.3
69.3
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
0.6%
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Page 23
4.4
High-Speed Train
Expansion of the high-speed train network reduces flight growth by just 0.4%
over 7 years, though the local effects are more significant. This is a slightly
weaker impact than in the previous forecast.
In the forecast model, an improvement in travel times for rail leads to a reduction in
demand for air travel. Figure 20 summarises the number of IFR departures that are
lost to rail because of improvements in the high speed train (HST) network. The effect
is around 0.4% in total over the 7 years of the forecast; which is small on the scale of
the network as a whole. However, on specific city-pairs, the effect can be quite large,
especially at the end of the horizon. Because some HST projects have been delayed
(not only due to the economic crisis but for some of them, because of environmental
and political issues), and owing to the lower levels of traffic, the current reduction in
traffic is below the MTF11 results (see Ref. 1) in which around 47,000 IFR departures
were assessed to be removed in 2017 from the network. It is now expected that a
reduction of the same order would only happen 2018. The HST network is assumed
to grow more slowly in the high flight-growth scenario, hence lower values for the
High in the Figure 18.
Figure 20. Impact of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08
(top) and most affected States (bottom).
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when airport High-Speed train network development in Europe is
taken into account
2012
Percentage Change
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
High
4.7
16.1
25.7
29.2
34.2
44.4
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
Base
11.9
19.0
23.8
28.1
38.9
47.4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
Low
11.6
20.4
25.8
29.5
42.3
49.2
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Base
France
Germany
Lisbon FIR
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
Percentage Change
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2012
2018
2.2
4.4
4.5
4.5
5.3
7.8
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
0.3
0.6
0.9
0.9
3.1
5.3
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
1.7
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.6
1.3%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
0.8
0.3%
4.0
8.1
12.2
15.7
16.8
16.9
0.6%
1.1%
1.7%
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1
5.2
3.8
4.4
5.0
11.8
16.2
0.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
1.6%
2.1%
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.2
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
As far as States are concerned, Spain and Turkey will see the largest impacts:
reduction of 17,000 and 16,000 IFR departures respectively in 2018 which
correspond to around 2% of traffic in each state. The effects are mainly due to the
Madrid-Bilbao and Madrid-Alicante lines in Spain and Istanbul-Ankara and IstanbulKonya for Turkey. France and Germany are less affected with around 8,000 and
5,000 (respectively) fewer IFR departures.
Page 24
Released Issue
4.5
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)

The forecast models the impact of compliance with the EU Emissions Trading
Scheme. This is expected to reduce flights by around 25,000 by 2018, which is a
0.2% reduction in growth over the whole period.
This air traffic forecast includes an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) component to
account for the integration of aviation 7 within the EU cap-and-trade scheme since the
beginning of 2012. The scheme affects all aircraft operators regardless of where they
are based provided that they operate flights departing from or arriving at an
aerodrome located in the EU. Aircraft operators have now to surrender one allowance
for every tonne of CO2 emitted on a flight 8 to/from Europe. Under current rules, EU
gives the aircraft operators permits to cover 85% of the allowances (for free); the rest
needs to be bought from auctions or on the free market. The component implemented
in this forecast estimates the induced increase in fares (conversion of the excess
allowances into monetary terms) and the resulting reduction in demand.
Figure 21 summarises the estimated number of IFR departures that are lost because
of the entry into force of the ETS. In 2018, the forecast number of flights is expected
to be reduced by 25,000 IFR departures, corresponding to a 0.2% reduction in
percentage terms for Europe
Figure 21. Impact of ETS: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08 due to
aviations participation in the scheme.
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when EU-ETS is taken into account
Percentage Change
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
7
8
High
2.6
7.0
10.6
14.6
26.3
38.5
41.3
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
Base
1.4
4.6
7.5
11.4
16.2
24.6
24.7
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
Low
0.9
3.4
5.8
9.1
12.9
18.2
19.2
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
Directive 2008/101/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 November 2008.
The modelling has been performed on passenger flights only.
Released Issue
Page 25
4.6
Comparison with earlier forecasts

A combination of lower-than-expected flight growth in 2011, downward revision
for economic growth in 2012 from 1.7% to 0%, lingering into weak growth in
2013, and fewer airport constraints pushes the forecast back by about two
years.
Figure 22 compares this new forecast (MTF12) with the previous MTF (MTF11b), the
mid-year update of the MTF published in October 2011 (Ref. 1).
The actual traffic in 2011, which is used as the baseline for the MTF12, is lower
than what was forecast even in late 2011. In particular, the previous MTF underestimated the downturn in flights at the start of the Winter 2011-2012 timetable, so
the new medium-term forecast starts lower than the previous forecast expected to
be.
The MTF11b was based on an expectation of economic growth in 2012 of 1.7% in

Europe. For the MTF12, this has been revised sharply downwards to 0%. Coupled
with the weak Winter traffic, we now forecast decline in 2012, which therefore
shifts traffic volumes at least one year to the right. Recovery to the 2008 peak is
probably delayed until 2014.
The growth rates for 2013 are weaker than previously forecast, with the weak
Italian and Spanish economies, for example, weighing on flight growth.
From 2014-2018 growth rates are higher in MTF12 compared to MTF11b. Slower
growth in the early years reduces the effects of airport capacity constraints, and
indeed the new forecast includes additional capacity in Istanbul, representing the
planned new airport.
The combination of these factors leaves the current forecast some two years behind
the previous. In the high-growth scenario, the number of flights could match the
previous baseline forecast around 2015.
Figure 22. Forecast for the ESRA08 has been revised downwards (MTF11b dashed
lines, MTF12 solid lines).
Page 26
Released Issue
5.
GLOSSARY
AAGR
ACC
AEA
B
CFMU
CRCO
ESRA
EU27
EU
FIR
GDP
H
HST
IFR
L
MTF
NM
SES
STATFOR
STF
TR
TZ
UIR
Average annual growth

Area Control Centre
Association of European Airlines
(in tables) Baseline Scenario
Eurocontrol Central Flow Management Unit
Eurocontrol Central Route Charges Office
Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex B)
European Union (27 States)
European Union (abbreviation for EU27)
Flight Information Region
Gross Domestic Product
(in tables) High-Growth Scenario
High-Speed Train
Instrument Flight Rules
(in tables) Low-Growth Scenario
Network Manager
Single European Sky
EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service
Short-Term Forecast
Traffic Region (a grouping of TZs)
Traffic Zone (State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and
Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro)
Upper Flight Information Region
Detailed explanations of the above terms are available in EUROCONTROL Glossary

for Flight Statistics & Forecasts (Ref. 6) and on the STATFOR web pages (Ref. 3).
Released Issue
Page 27
ANNEX A.
FORECAST METHOD
The forecast reported here combines the EUROCONTROL Short- and MediumTerm Forecast methods. The short-term forecast is largely driven by analysis of
recent trends. The medium-term forecast takes into account a broader range of
economic and industry developments.
Short-Term Forecast Method
The short-term forecast focuses on time-series modeling of traffic trends month-bymonth. The final result is in terms of numbers of flights per month per pair of zones or
regions: within Europe origin-destination zones are used (groups of airports often
smaller than States); outside of Europe, large regions are used (groups of States).
Four separate forecasts (with differing horizons and time and geographical resolution)
contribute to the forecast as a whole (see Figure 23):
The State-flow forecast method is the method developed in the legacy code. It
has been used for several years for published short-term forecasts. It forecasts
each State separately, and within the State, separate forecasts for a few main
flows: internals, overflights etc.
The zone or region-pair forecast is largely based on time-series methods for

some 8000 series.
The schedule method uses data from published schedules for future months, and
comparisons of previous schedules with actual flights.
The first years of the medium-term forecast (see below) also contribute a view of
future traffic.
The combined forecast is then capped by airport capacities, using the same method
as used in the medium- and long-term forecasts. Overflights are calculated using both
the trends identified in the short-term forecast, and the base-year flight patterns used
previously in the medium-term forecast. The result is a single forecast from which
short- and medium-term views can be reported.
Figure 23. Summary of short-term forecast method.
Short-term Forecast
(Parts of method only)
Supporting Data:
-Events
-Calendars
Historical Archive:
Monthly Airport-Pair Data
State-Flow
Forecast Method
Historical Archive:
Published Schedule
Zone/Region-Pair
Forecast Method
Initial Airport-Pair
Forecast
Schedule
Forecast Method
Combine
Aligned Airport-Pair
Forecast
Apply annual
capacities
Final Airport-Pair
Forecast
Forecast
Overflights
Final
Forecast
Released Issue
Page 28
Medium-Term Forecast Method

STATFOR produces medium-term (seven years ahead) forecasts of annual numbers
of IFR flight movements for volumes of airspace called traffic zones. Traffic zones
are typically States, but Spain and Portugal are split into two, and Belgium &
Luxembourg and Serbia & Montenegro are combined. Larger aggregate regions,
such as the 27 EU States, are also included. For each traffic zone, forecasts are
published for the main region-to-region flows (Annex B.2 defines these traffic regions)
on the STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (Ref. 2). Traffic flows are also categorised as
internals (within the traffic zone), arrival in or departure from the traffic zone, and
overflights (neither departing from nor landing in the traffic zone, but passing through
its airspace).
The forecast is published annually, at the beginning of the year and refreshed
mid-year to support the capacity planning process. Key features of the method are:
Development of a core, airport-pair forecast which, at each update of the mediumterm forecast, is shared by medium- and short-term forecasts;
The demand-side model focuses on economic growth and its influence on

demand from travellers and shippers;
A supply-side model is used to forecast growth directly on airport pairs, and

replaces the traditional demand-side model when appropriate;
Specific models for some market segments, such as business aviation and a lowcost effect;
The forecast is constrained by annual airport capacity.
The overflights are calculated using the airport-to-airport routing in the baseline
year, plus more recent trends captured by the short-term forecast method.
The forecast method is continuously being refined to improve the quality of the
outputs. For this forecast, the emissions trading scheme is integrated into the
forecasting process, and the supply-side modeling has been adapted to handle better
the recent cases of decline over several years for some flows. The forecast process is
summarised in Figure 24.
The review body for STATFOR is the STATFOR User Group. This has members from
civil aviation authorities and air navigation service providers, and from other industry
organisations. Participants are typically actively involved in statistics or forecasting.
The STATFOR User Group meets once or twice per year. It reviews the inputs to the
medium-term forecast and the resulting draft forecast. The aim of the review process
is to produce a forecast which is consistent on a European level and acceptable to
member States. This does not necessarily mean the forecast is the same as that
produced nationally.
The forecast is built from three main datasets.
A historical database of the STATFOR monthly statistics (derived from CRCO,

Network Manager 9 and National sources) for the last ten or more years at airportpair level;
Network Manager as the new name of the former CFMU
Released Issue
Page 29
A baseline from Network Manager and National sources that includes routing
information;
The set of scenario inputs.
Figure 24. Preparation process of the Medium-Term Forecast.
The Medium-Term Forecast uses three scenarios which differ in terms of the
assumptions. The low-growth and high-growth scenarios between them capture the
most-likely range of future growth in flight movements; the baseline scenario indicates
a likely position within this range. The main parts of the scenario data are:
Page 30
Economic growth, summarised as GDP growth forecasts in real prices in local

currency; (Annex C.1)
Low-cost growth, which adds additional flight movements, on top of economic

growth to reflect new flight movements generated by low-cost airlines; (Annex
C.2)
High-speed train network, summarised as changes in rail travel time on city pairs
served by high-speed links, compared to the baseline year; (Annex C.3)
Airport capacity, in movements per year for major airports; (Annex C.4)
Load factors, which are assumed to change linearly from a current level to a
future level that can vary with region and scenario; (Annex C.5)
Network change, a percentage adjustment to arrival and departure movements

per traffic zone, which can be used - given supporting data - to represent in the
model the effects of consolidation, irregularities in the baseline, or local one-off
effects; (Annex C.6)
Released Issue
Demographic change, which has a very small impact in the demand-side model.
These data are derived from UN population forecasts.
Emission Trading Scheme characteristics, prices of CO2 allowances, cap on

historical CO2 emissions and the level of auctioning in the ETS determine the
additional costs of airlines from aviation participation in the ETS. The MTF model
expects that these are passed onto passengers and therefore reduces the
passengers' demand accordingly. (Annex C.8)
The medium-term forecast is prepared in two stages: first the airport-pair forecast;
then the traffic per volume of airspace, calculated from this using estimates of routing
from airport to airport. Published tables, reports, graphs and maps are derived from
the second of these, for short- and medium-term forecast alike.
Each airport pair is grown as follows:
All-cargo flights are grown based on GDP growth.
Small airport pairs (< 25 flights per year) are kept constant.
Growth of military flight movements in the first year of the forecast follows the
average of the last three years for the traffic zone as a whole, with a maximum
change of 5%, and is kept constant afterwards.
Business aviation flights are grown based on observed trend at a State level
together with economic growth if this is a useful explanatory variable for this State.
For other traffic, the use of supply-side or demand-side approach is considered.

Supply-side is used if traffic matches one of the standard histories (circular flights,
long-term stable or declining traffic, direct relationship to GDP) and if demand
exceeds the supply. Otherwise, it is demand that drives and limits the growth.
In the demand-side, passenger numbers are estimated from flight counts, aircraft
type and load factors, then grown according to GDP growth and the elasticity for
this region-pair, then converted back to a number of flights using a number of
seats-to-flights relationships calibrated on historical data.
The first years of the forecast are aligned with the short-term forecast.
The growth of movements on an airport-pair may then be reduced if there has

been a reduction in journey times by HST since the baseline year, adjusted for
low-cost growth in the traffic zone and for any network change assumptions (by
traffic zone, airport, or airport pair) and capped by airport capacity.
The resulting growth per airport pair is the airport-pair forecast. The final step is to
calculate how many flights are generated in each airspace by these airport-to-airport
flights. This is done using a combination of the routings through airspace observed in
the baseline year and trends in overflight growth per traffic zone.
At each stage, the results are validated using any available data, such as from the
STATFOR User Group or from the Industry Monitor. For example: base-year airport
movements are compared with statistics published by airports; first-year growth is
compared with known airline plans; long-term growth is compared with other
forecasts in terms of flights or passengers. Such comparisons are typically a matter of
judgement, rather than a precise numerical correlation.
Released Issue
Page 31
ANNEX B.
B.1
TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS
ESRA08
The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as

much as possible of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) area for which
data are available from a range of sources within the Agency. It is used for high-level
reports from the Agency, when referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA changes only
slowly with time; a region is added to the ESRA only when there is a full year's data
from all sources, so that growth calculations are possible. ESRA08 was introduced in
the Medium-Term Forecast report issued in february 2009. It is now used as a basis
for comparison at European level in the forecasts. Note that the EUROCONTROL
forecast includes also regions outside of the ESRA (eg. Armenia and Latvia) though
still within ECAC.
Figure 25. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.
Traffic zones are represented by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not
take delegation of airspace into account. For individual States, the differences
between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and
thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a
whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between
an FIR and an ACC definition is small.
B.2
Traffic regions
For this forecast, traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of
traffic regions listed in Figure 26 (for example in Annex D). Each region is made up of
a number of traffic zones. Traffic zones are indicated in the table for brevity by the
first letters of the ICAO location codes. The traffic regions are defined for statistical
convenience and do not reflect an official position of the EUROCONTROL Agency.
The ESRA was defined in the previous section. For flow purposes, this is split into a
North-West region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a Mediterranean region
stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist element, and an
Page 32
Released Issue
Eastern region. The Other region includes the Baltic States and Oceanic. The
Former CIS Region includes Armenia and Azerbaijan (members of ECAC). In time
these will join the ESRA. More details are available in STATFOR Geographical
Hierarchy document (Ref. 7).
Figure 26. Regions used in flow statistics.
ICAO region/country
ESRA
ESRA1
ESRA North-West
EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS
ESRA2
ESRA Mediterranean
GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT
ESRA3
World 1
ESRA East
BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK
North Atlantic
BG, BI, C, EK, K, P (except KG)
World 2
Middle-East
O, L
World 3
North-Africa
DA, DT, GM, HE, HL, HS
World 4
Southern Africa
D, F, G, H, MR (except DA, DT, HE, HL, HS, GM, GE, and ESRA)
World 5
Far-East
R, V, Z (except ZZZZ)
World 6
Oceania
KG, N, P, Y (except NO)
World 7
Mid-Atlantic
M, T (except MR)
World 8
South-Atlantic
World 9
Former CIS Region
U (except areas in ESRA)
Other
Other
EE, EN, EV, EY, GE, GM, LP, LX, Swanwick Oc., Bodo Oc., Santa Maria FIR
B.3
Functional Airspace Blocks
On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from
2012 to 2018 for Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of airspace based
on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries (Figure 27). FAB
initiatives (definitions) are constantly evolving according to the targets defined to improve
the performance of the European air traffic management network. The FAB used in this
reports refers to the January 2011 definition.
Figure 27. FAB initiatives as of January 2011. (Source: EUROCONTROL PRU)
Released Issue
Page 33
ANNEX C.
C.1
SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
Economic Growth
Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) come from a single coherent
source, Oxford Economics Ltd. Data in this report originate from the January 2012
update of the GDP forecast. These are shown for specific States 10 in Figure 31 and
Figure 32. For all other States, the growth of the traffic region is used. Traffic regions
are listed in Figure 26, and their economic growth in Figure 33.
The high- and low-growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets 11 from these forecasts.
In this update, economic growth for 2012 is strongly revised downwards, as was
already shown in Figure 11. Figure 28 shows that this revision applies to all States in
the scope of the flight forecast. Beyond 2012, Figure 11 illustrates that 2013 has also
been revised downwards, comparing the forecast used for the MTF11b (flight forecast
published in October 2011, but economic forecast from August), with the new forecast
(MTF12). There are some marginal upward revisions from 2015 onwards.
Figure 30 shows the differences in GDP forecast per State for each year. Nearly all
States see downward revisions in 2013 and a majority do in 2014.
Figure 28. Changes per State in economic forecast for 2012 for this flight
forecast.
10
In fact the forecasts refer to traffic zones. These are typically States, represented by its FIR. However, Belgium &
Luxembourg are combined, as are Serbia and Montenegro. Spain and Portugal are each divided into 2.
11
+1%, -0.8% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -0.8% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.5% for late years and
big States, +0.8%, -0.8% for late years and small States.
Page 34
Released Issue
Figure 29. Since the previous forecast, the economic outlook for EU27 has
significantly worsened.
Figure 30. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2012-2018: nearly all
States see reduction in 2012 and 2013.
Released Issue
Page 35
Figure 31. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone

Source: 2010-2018 from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan2012
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 06/02/2012
Actual
2009
Page 36
2010
Base
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
Albania
2.8%
3.8%
3.0%
4.2%
4.2%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
Armenia
-14%
2.1%
4.0%
4.3%
4.3%
4.6%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Austria
-3.4%
2.3%
3.0%
1.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.9%
Azerbaijan
9.3%
5.0%
0.4%
4.0%
5.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
Belarus
0.2%
7.6%
5.0%
1.5%
4.3%
3.7%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
Belgium/Luxembourg
-2.7%
2.3%
2.0%
0.9%
2.9%
2.5%
2.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.9%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
-3.0%
0.5%
2.2%
2.1%
5.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.3%
5.3%
Bulgaria
-5.6%
0.3%
2.2%
2.4%
5.3%
5.8%
5.9%
5.9%
5.7%
5.7%
Canary Islands
-3.7%
-0.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
Croatia
-6.0%
-1.2%
0.4%
1.2%
2.0%
3.2%
3.6%
3.6%
3.2%
3.2%
Cyprus
-1.7%
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
1.5%
2.2%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
Czech Republic
-4.0%
2.2%
2.0%
1.4%
2.8%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
2.9%
2.9%
Denmark
-5.2%
1.7%
1.1%
1.2%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
Estonia
-14%
3.1%
7.2%
2.5%
4.2%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.5%
4.5%
FYROM
-1.0%
1.7%
4.2%
2.8%
3.0%
4.5%
4.0%
4.0%
3.7%
3.7%
Finland
-8.3%
3.6%
3.0%
1.3%
2.8%
3.1%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
France
-2.6%
1.4%
1.6%
0.3%
1.6%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
Georgia
-3.8%
6.4%
5.6%
4.9%
5.5%
5.5%
5.2%
5.2%
4.9%
4.9%
Germany
-4.7%
3.6%
2.9%
0.9%
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
Greece
-2.3%
-4.4%
-6.2%
-6.1%
-2.0%
-0.0%
1.8%
1.8%
2.1%
2.1%
Hungary
-6.5%
1.1%
1.0%
0.7%
2.7%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.2%
3.2%
Iceland
-6.9%
-4.0%
2.1%
1.8%
2.9%
3.0%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
Ireland
-7.0%
-0.4%
1.2%
0.5%
3.1%
3.4%
3.7%
3.7%
3.9%
3.9%
Italy
-5.2%
1.2%
0.6%
-0.7%
0.2%
0.9%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
Latvia
-18%
-0.3%
4.3%
3.5%
5.8%
6.2%
5.7%
5.7%
5.3%
5.3%
Lisbon FIR
-2.5%
1.3%
-1.3%
-2.9%
0.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
Lithuania
-15%
1.3%
5.8%
3.7%
6.2%
6.3%
6.2%
6.2%
5.6%
5.6%
Malta
-3.3%
2.7%
2.0%
1.5%
2.6%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
Moldova
-7.3%
6.9%
6.5%
4.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
Netherlands
-3.5%
1.6%
1.8%
0.7%
2.0%
2.2%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
Norway
-1.6%
0.3%
1.2%
1.8%
2.2%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
Poland
1.6%
3.8%
4.2%
2.8%
4.1%
4.1%
3.8%
3.8%
3.5%
3.5%
Romania
-6.9%
-1.5%
1.2%
2.8%
5.2%
5.8%
5.7%
5.7%
5.6%
5.6%
Russian Federation
-7.8%
4.0%
3.8%
4.4%
4.3%
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
Santa Maria FIR
-2.5%
1.3%
-1.3%
-2.9%
0.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
Serbia&Montenegro
-3.1%
1.7%
2.7%
2.8%
5.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.3%
5.3%
Slovakia
-4.8%
4.0%
2.9%
1.1%
3.5%
4.3%
4.7%
4.7%
4.0%
4.0%
Slovenia
-8.4%
1.3%
1.1%
1.0%
2.2%
3.1%
3.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
Spain
-3.7%
-0.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
Sweden
-5.3%
5.4%
4.2%
1.5%
2.5%
2.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
Switzerland
-1.9%
2.7%
1.9%
0.6%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
Turkey
-4.8%
9.0%
7.7%
2.2%
5.6%
6.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.4%
5.4%
UK
-4.9%
1.8%
0.9%
1.0%
2.6%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.5%
Ukraine
-15%
4.2%
4.8%
4.4%
5.9%
6.5%
6.3%
6.3%
5.8%
5.8%
Released Issue
2013
2014
Figure 32. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone

Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan 12.
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Actual
Base
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
China
9.2%
10%
9.1%
8.5%
8.8%
8.8%
8.3%
7.9%
7.5%
7.5%
India
7.0%
8.7%
7.1%
6.5%
8.7%
9.2%
8.6%
7.9%
7.6%
7.6%
Figure 33. GDP Growth by Traffic Region

Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Jan12
Comments: Real GDP Growth.
Actual
Base
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ESRA East
-3.6% 2.5% 3.1% 1.3% 2.7% 4.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.6% 4.6%
ESRA Mediterranean
-4.4% 1.7% 1.2% -0.8% 0.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%
ESRA North-West
-4.1% 2.4% 2.0% 0.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4%
Far-East
-3.7% 5.6% 0.9% 2.3% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.9% 2.9%
Former CIS Region
-5.4% 4.8% 4.6% 4.1% 4.4% 4.8% 4.3% 4.1% 5.0% 5.0%
Mid-Atlantic
-4.7% 4.3% 3.6% 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 4.3% 4.3%
Middle-East
North Atlantic
North-Africa
C.2
1.2% 4.2% 4.9% 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 5.3% 5.3%
-3.4% 3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 3.5% 3.5%
1.6% 4.1% -12% 9.2% 6.7% 5.8% 4.9% 4.7% 5.2% 5.2%
Oceania
1.2% 2.5% 1.9% 3.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6%
Other
-16% 1.1% 6.2% 2.4% 4.9% 5.9% 5.7% 5.3% 5.9% 5.9%
South-Atlantic
0.0% 6.0% 6.6% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 3.7% 3.4% 4.0% 4.0%
Southern Africa
3.7% 6.1% 5.6% 5.9% 6.1% 6.0% 5.4% 5.2% 6.2% 6.2%
Low-Cost Carrier Growth
The starting point is the market share of low-cost carriers in each traffic zone in
September 2011. The low-cost carriers are defined by means of a list (Ref. 8), more
detailed data on this segment are available in STATFOR web page (Ref. 3). For the
purposes of this analysis only, the market share is defined as the share of passenger
flights (i.e. excluding the military, cargo and business aviation since these are
forecasted separately, see Annex A).
The observed market share in 2011 is assumed to continue to change according to
low-, base- and high- scenarios. These scenarios are based on observed average
annual growth across all States in the ESRA over 2005-2011, which is 0.9 percentage
points per year, with a high rate of 2.9 points and low of -0.1.
These rates are rather different to previously used, as it is apparent that growth in the
low-cost market has for the most part slowed down considerably. The low value
indicates that in 25% of historical observations we saw an annual decrease in market
share: as a projection this becomes a State seeing a 1% share decline for low-cost
over 7 years. The high value was seen for 25% of observations (TZ and year), but the
data suggest that it is only really applicable in States with less traffic, so we used half
this rate for States with more than 25,000 departures in the month.
Released Issue
Page 37
The evidence is that low-cost carrier market share growth is partly new, generated
traffic (for example attracted by the price), and partly replacement or re-badging of
existing traffic. In the forecast, approximately half of the difference between the
baseline and future values shown in Figure 34 is converted to extra growth in flights.
Figure 34. Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone
Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: Represents additional growth for Low-Cost, but only the baseline year is a true statistic for low-co
Units: Percentage Additional Growth Due to Low-Cost Growth. Data last updated: 06/02/2012
Albania
Armenia
Low
Base
High
2011
2018
2018
2018
41%
38%
42%
46%
0%
0%
2%
6%
21%
21%
24%
27%
Azerbaijan
0%
0%
2%
6%
Belarus
0%
0%
2%
6%
Belgium/Luxembourg
15%
15%
19%
21%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
7%
7%
11%
19%
Bulgaria
15%
14%
21%
36%
Canary Islands
34%
34%
38%
44%
Croatia
20%
20%
23%
31%
Cyprus
23%
22%
29%
44%
Czech Republic
26%
25%
32%
47%
Denmark
13%
13%
17%
19%
Estonia
11%
11%
14%
21%
FYROM
6%
6%
7%
8%
Finland
21%
21%
23%
27%
France
18%
18%
21%
24%
Georgia
0%
0%
2%
6%
Germany
29%
29%
32%
34%
Greece
23%
23%
26%
28%
Hungary
15%
15%
18%
25%
Iceland
2%
2%
5%
12%
Ireland
47%
46%
53%
68%
Italy
37%
36%
40%
42%
Latvia
11%
10%
17%
32%
Lisbon FIR
32%
32%
35%
42%
Lithuania
26%
25%
32%
47%
Malta
31%
30%
37%
52%
3%
3%
7%
15%
Netherlands
22%
22%
25%
28%
Norway
22%
22%
25%
28%
Poland
25%
24%
31%
46%
Romania
47%
Austria
Moldova
26%
25%
32%
Santa Maria FIR
0%
0%
2%
6%
Serbia&Montenegro
9%
9%
13%
21%
24%
23%
30%
45%
Slovakia
Slovenia
Page 38
Actual
3%
2%
9%
24%
Spain
46%
41%
46%
50%
Sweden
20%
20%
23%
26%
Switzerland
16%
16%
20%
22%
Released Issue
Actual
Low
Base
High
2011
2018
2018
2018
Turkey
19%
19%
22%
25%
UK
46%
46%
48%
50%
0%
0%
4%
12%
Ukraine
C.3
High-Speed Train Network Development
The information on improvements in the high-speed train (HST) network between

2011 and 2018 on is based on information provided by the Union Internationale des
Chemins de Fer and many websites of a number of specific HST projects. The model
converts improved rail travel times into increased market share for rail, and thus fewer
passengers travelling by air.
Figure 35 indicates the changes in rail travel time in the baseline scenario. In the lowand high-growth scenarios, the times remain the same, but they happen earlier and
later, respectively. The distance indicated is based on an average location of airports
associated with the city, not on city-centre locations. It is also a direct distance, so
underestimates the distance in particular where the sea intervenes, such as LondonAmsterdam or Istanbul-Bursa.
For the 2012 medium-term forecast, the travel times have been updated, and the
years when the projects come into operation have been reviewed. In practice, there
have been few changes, since, in the medium-term the HST projects are largely
already in progress and appear to have been relatively little affected by the economic
slowdown.
Figure 35. High-Speed Train Times
Source: Actuals from on-line timetables. Plans from UIC, TEN-T and elsewhere.
Comments: HST projects to be finalised 2012-2018.
Units: Travel time (minutes). Data last updated: 03/02/2012 Distances estimated from airport locations.
Distance
Km
Ankara
Bale Mulho
Rail Time (mins)
Speed (km/h)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sivas
355
720
120
30
177
BURSA (MIL
317
240
130
79
146
IZMIR-ADNA
519
900
200
35
156
Lyon
282
225
145
75
117
Marseille
486
340
240
86
121
Nimes
484
350
250
83
116
Paris
398
210
180
114
133
Barcelona
Lyon
530
460
180
69
177
Bilbao
SAN SEBAST
91
130
40
42
136
195
180
80
65
146
386
390
290
59
80
DIJON/DARO Bale Mulho

Frankfurt
Erfurt
Strasbourg
242
220
130
66
112
Leipzig
102
70
39
87
156
Released Issue
Page 39
Distance
Km
Frankfurt
Rail Time (mins)
Speed (km/h)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bern
348
230
200
Bale Mulho
274
170
140
London
641
370
91
105
310
97
118
104
124
Paris
444
230
215
116
124
Geneva
Paris
397
202
185
118
129
Istanbul
Ankara
335
330
180
61
112
Konya
454
745
210
37
130
Sivas
682 1260
300
32
136
BURSA (MIL
84
240
135
21
37
Bern
239
180
150
80
96
Bale Mulho
166
110
69
91
144
Bale Mulho
361
230
200
94
108
Karlsruhe
Koln/Bonn
London
516
283
240
109
129
LISBOA
Madrid
507
690
165
44
184
Madrid
ALICANTE
361
360
120
60
180
Bilbao
327
300
135
65
145
Bordeaux
543
750
238
43
137
MURCIA SAN
386
250
120
93
193
SAN SEBAST
363
300
135
73
161
Valencia
295
210
93
84
190
Vitoria
286
220
120
78
143
Munchen
Berlin
481
360
240
80
120
PORTO
Vigo
108
480
60
13
108
Paris
Barcelona
824
440
335
112
148
Brest
511
250
180
123
170
Montpellie
600
210
180
171
200
Rennes
326
127
90
154
217
Barcelona
158
165
50
57
190
Madrid
605
500
230
73
158
SCHIPHOL A London
Perpignan
Strasbourg
359
287
240
75
90
LUXEMBOURG B
162
130
85
75
114
Lille
405
200
115
121
211
Lyon
373
280
200
80
112
Marseille
589
380
270
93
131
Paris
381
140
110
163
208
238
210
75
68
190
SAN SEBAST
310
240
65
78
286
Vitoria
218
140
65
93
201
Bilbao
49
140
30
21
98
SAN SEBAST
92
100
30
55
184
Paris
469
270
240
104
117
VALLADOLID Bilbao
Vitoria
ZURICH
Page 40
Released Issue
C.4
Airport Capacity
The forecast takes airport capacity into account. The final stage of this is that demand
in excess of the expected capacity cannot be accommodated and is lost. For this
medium-term forecast, information on capacity of 159 airports has been used, coming
from either long-term forecast assumptions (see Ref. 9) or from airports, civil aviation
authorities and air navigation service providers when this data is available.
These capacities are treated as confidential and not reported in this document.
Nevertheless, we have included for the first time an assumption that the proposed
third Istanbul airport, due for completion in 2016, will provide additional capacity from
2017. The effects of this are clearly observable in the growth of Turkey and its
neighbours.
C.5
Load Factors
Figure 37 summarises the assumptions about the development of load factors. Timeseries forecast have been made using the recent trends in the annual data provided
by the Association of European Airlines (AEA).
Figure 36 shows an example of this forecast. The lower bound of the forecast is used
for the low-growth forecast. This makes sense in terms of the air transport business,
but the side effect of this is to bring close the overall low- and high-growth traffic
forecasts, because in the high-growth scenario, more of the growth in passengers is
absorbed in load factor growth and less in growth in flight-frequencies.
It could be argued that load factors for other market segments (eg regional or lowcost carriers) are different from those provided by the AEA. Whilst this is true, it is the
change in load factors which has the main influence on the forecast, so if the absolute
load factors are different but the changes are similar, then the inputs will still be
appropriate.
High fuel prices amongst other things continue to pressure airlines to keep load
factors high. As shown in Figure 7, load factors have been slipping slightly back from
their historic highs in recent months. The assumption here is that the upward
movement will resume, even if the net change over 7 years within the EU for example
is a modest 2% points.
Released Issue
Page 41
Figure 36. Example load factor forecast, for Europe.
Figure 37. Load factors by Traffic Region

Source: Actual: AEA, IATA. Forecast: STATFOR analysis and modelling.
Comments: Data for 2018 based on year to December
Units: Percentage Load Factor for this Traffic Region. Data last updated: 06/02/2012
Actual
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Low
Base
High
2018
2018
2018
ESRA East
64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%
ESRA Mediterranean
64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%
ESRA North-West
64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%
Far-East
78.7% 76.6% 80.7% 76.3% 78.0% 79.7% 80.7% 83.2% 80.7% 80.6% 83.6% 81.6% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
Former CIS Region
64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%
Mid-Atlantic
79.8% 78.9% 79.1% 79.4% 80.3% 81.7% 82.1% 84.3% 83.3% 81.7% 82.2% 81.7% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
Middle-East
67.1% 63.3% 67.5% 69.2% 69.6% 73.5% 70.8% 74.6% 73.5% 69.3% 71.3% 70.0% 74.0% 74.0% 74.0%
North Atlantic
77.4% 73.6% 79.7% 79.5% 81.3% 82.2% 81.1% 81.7% 80.9% 82.0% 83.8% 82.8% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
North-Africa
70.5% 65.2% 68.8% 65.3% 68.7% 67.0% 68.4% 69.4% 70.4% 67.9% 69.8% 67.7% 67.2% 69.8% 72.4%
Oceania
78.7% 76.6% 80.7% 76.3% 78.0% 79.7% 80.7% 83.2% 80.7% 80.6% 83.6% 81.6% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
Other
64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%
South-Atlantic
79.7% 73.8% 76.1% 82.2% 82.9% 82.5% 86.3% 85.1% 81.0% 80.2% 84.9% 85.9% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
Southern Africa
74.3% 77.4% 76.4% 75.9% 78.2% 77.9% 77.9% 79.2% 77.8% 77.6% 77.4% 76.9% 79.6% 80.0% 80.0%
Page 42
Released Issue
C.6
Events and Trends
Events and Trends are used to represent future events. The forecast method means
that only the local traffic (excluding overflights) can be adjusted in this way but with
the possibility to account for diverging trends in domestic and external flights by
adjusting internals or arrivals and departures separately.
The assumptions are expressed as 'cumulative' change: so a 1.01 figure in the year
2012 only would mean increase growth by 1% in 2012 and decrease it in 2013 (with a
total cumulative effect of 0 over the full period of the forecast). Thus, for one-time
events, a value in the corresponding year is provided. To show a lasting effect over
the whole forecast period, the flight adjustment factor is present in all years until the
end of the forecast.
The events in this forecast are:
For the London Olympics in 2012, the MTF12 assumptions are based on data
prepared for the Olympics planners via UK NATS.
The boost to local traffic of Poland and Ukraine from the Euro2012 football
championship is also included.
The collapse of Spanair and Malev is represented by reductions in local traffic for
Canary Islands, Spain and Hungary (and implicitly on all flows connecting with
these States).
EU accession: Croatia and Iceland are expected to join the EU around 2013. The
effect of air transport and market liberalisation is factored in for Croatia by an
additional 5% growth in 2013, with a declining effect in subsequent years. Iceland
is expected to see an effect half this size.
The Arab Spring: civil unrest in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya continues to affect flights
across Europe. Figure 38 shows adjustments to the arrival-departure flows to
allow for these effects.
The available data on airline schedules was not robust enough to be used en
masse for forecasting the Summer 2012 traffic; instead some small amendments
were made to the big three - France, Germany, UK to produce better alignment
with the schedules. This was just 0.4% at annual level, shown here.
EU visa-free measures: the boost to growth after EU relaxation of visa

requirements for Serbian, Montenegrin and Macedonian citizens travelling is
assumed to have finished, while a small effect lingers for flights from Albania and
Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Adjustments to the overall number of movements have been made to allow for the
2012 and 2016 leap years, which leads to approximately 0.3% points of extra growth
in 2012 and 2016, and a corresponding fall in 2013 and 2017.
This section does not list a number of adjustments made to the historical data to
provide a clean baseline from which to forecast, since they are more technical in
nature. The large adjustments made for the ash clouds of April-May 2010, and
weather cancellations of December 2010 are now only of historical interest. The
number of flight cancellations in 2011 was much smaller than 2010, but historical
adjustments were made for 2011 including to North African flows, and to the
overflights of States neighbouring Greece which saw additional traffic during social
unrest there, principally in September and October 2011. These neighbours will
therefore see a dip in growth in those months in 2012.
Released Issue
Page 43
Figure 38. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone

Source: STATFOR analysis and modelling
Comments: Consolidation includes: trends from STF and future events such as EU Accession, major sport events a
Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0). Data last updated: 20/02/2012
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Albania
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010
1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010
1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010
Bosnia-Herzegovina Total: Arr/Dep H
1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010
1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010
Canary Islands
Croatia
Egypt
France
Germany
Hungary
Iceland
Libya
Poland
Page 44
1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.963 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950
0.963 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950
0.963 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950
Total: Arr/Dep H
. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090
. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090
. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.844
0.844
0.844
Total: Internal H
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
Total: Internal H
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.800 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700
0.800 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700
0.800 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700
Total: Arr/Dep H
. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040
. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040
. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.031 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239
1.031 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239
1.031 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239
Total: Internal H
1.007
1.004
1.002
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.016
1.012
1.008
Released Issue
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Spain
Tunisia
UK
Ukraine
C.7
Total: Internal H
0.925 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900
0.925 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900
0.925 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.985 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980
0.985 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980
0.985 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.148 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149
1.148 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149
1.148 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149
Total: Internal H
1.009 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.009 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.009 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.006 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.006 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
1.006 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004
Total: Internal H
1.007
1.005
1.002
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.033
1.028
1.023
Airport Traffic Switch
Traffic can be switched between airports for two reasons: to allow for the opening or
closure of an airport (as in the two examples here), in which case the overall number
of flights is unaffected; or to shift flights from a constrained larger airport to a fastergrowing secondary airport, in which case the overall number of flights can be
increased because the number of flights that cannot be accommodated at a
constrained airport typically decreases.
In recent forecasts we had switched traffic from Istanbul/Ataturk to Istanbul/Sabiha
Gokcen. A review of the effects of this showed that it led to better forecasting of the
latter, but under-estimating the former, and thus under-estimating the capacity
constraints. After discussion, this traffic switching was discontinued. In any case, new
capacity is expected to become available in Istanbul (see annex C.4).
The remaining traffic switches allow for the closure of two airports (see Figure 39).
The closure of Berlin/Tegel (EDDT), with traffic moving to Berlin/Schnefeld

(becoming Berlin/Brandenburg) from 3 June 2012. Working assumption
concerning transfer of Berlin/Tegel traffic to Berlin/Schnefeld: 50% in 2012 and
100% in 2013).
The closure of Bucharest/Baneasa airport, and its traffic moving to

Bucharest/Otopeni International Airport. It is not yet clear whether this will be a
permanent situation, but overall traffic growth should be unaffected.
Released Issue
Page 45
Figure 39. Airport traffic switch

Source: EUROCONTROL Data and analysis
Comments: Updated from MTF12 inputs
Units: Airport Traffic Switching. Data last updated: 16/02/2012
Low
Base
High
2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013

Traffic Type Traffic Between And Region Move To
All
C.8
EDDT
EDDB
50% 100% 50% 100% 50% 100%
LRBS
LROP
75% 100% 75% 100% 75% 100%
Emissions Trading Scheme
The aviation industry joined the EU ETS from 1st January 2012. The effects of the
ETS on traffic demand are now included in the STATFOR forecasts (see Ref. 10 for
details on the method).
The air operators need to surrender allowances for their CO2 emissions. This year,
the EU gives the airlines permits to cover 85% of the allowances (for free); the rest
needs to be bought from auctions or, on the free market. For each airline, the amount
of allowances allocated to the airlines free of charge is determined as a percentage of
the historical aviation emissions. The total amount of emission allowances allocated
from 2012 is capped at a level of 95%-97% of the historical aviation, depending on
the horizon (see Figure 40).
Figure 40. ETS assumptions
Comments: ETS characteristics (cap on historical emissions and level of auctioning, in %)
Units: Cap on historical 2004-06 emissions and level of auctioning, in %. Data last updated: 12/12/2011
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cap
Low
100% 100% 97% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
Base
100% 100% 97% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
High
100% 100% 97% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
Auction Low
0%
0% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Base
0%
0% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
High
0%
0% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Applying the percentages defined in Figure 40 on the total historical amount of

emissions, the total amount of emission allowances that the aircraft operators will get
free of charge is calculated. Subtracting the latter to the estimate of total amount of
future emissions 12 , the total amount the operators need to buy either at an auction or
on the free market is then assessed. This amount of allowances to be purchased
(expressed per passenger per airport-pair) is converted into price terms with three
scenarios for future prices of CO2 as shown in Figure 41. The prices start at 8-13
per tonne of CO2 in 2012 and increase to 30-55 in 2018. They correspond to current
12
See Ref. 10 for future emissions calculation.
Page 46
Released Issue
market situation: in December 2011, the price of carbon contracts for emissions in
2012 were around 8 per tonne 13 . They are lower than the prices used in MTF11.
Figure 41. Prices
Comments: Price in EUR per tonne CO2
Units: Price in EUR per tonne of CO2. Data last updated: 09/02/2012
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Low
10
12
15
19
24
30
Base
10
13
16
20
25
32
40
High
13
17
21
27
34
43
55
The airlines are expected to transfer the additional CO2 costs (i.e. the allowances
purchased) fully to their customers, the passengers. This will imply an increase in
fares, and consequently a reduction in demand from price-sensitive passengers. The
sensitivity of demand for air travel to changes in the price of the tickets is described in
Figure 42 by a set of flow specific price elasticities derived largely from an IATA
publication (see Ref. 11).
Figure 42. Price Elasticities per (bidirectional) Traffic Region Pair and period
Comments: Demand price elasticities (based on LTF08 figures)
Units: Multiplier (Elasticity). Data last updated: 13/01/2012
ESRA
ESRA
North- Mediterran ESRA
East Other
West
ean
Former
CIS
Region
North
Atlantic
MidAtlantic
SouthAtlantic
NorthAfrica
Southern MiddleAfrica
East
FarEast
Oceania
ESRA North-West
-0.9
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
ESRA Mediterranean
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
ESRA East
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
Other
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
-0.7
Former CIS Region
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
North Atlantic
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
Mid-Atlantic
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
South-Atlantic
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
North-Africa
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
Southern Africa
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
Middle-East
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
Far-East
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
Oceania
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.7
13
Source : Point Carbon
Released Issue
Page 47
ANNEX D.
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ESRA
Figure 43. Growth in Europe
Units: IFR Movements (thousands) and growth compared to the previous year.
Released Issue
Page 48
Figure 44. Traffic on the main flow categories for the ESRA
IFR Movements(000s)
2007
Total: Internal
Total: Arr/Dep
Total: Overflight
Grand Total
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Annual Growth
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
AAGR
2018/
2011
7,673
7,801
8,084
8,351
8,643
8,947
9,169
-1.5%
1.7%
3.6%
3.3%
3.5%
3.5%
2.5%
2.4%
8,241
8,182
7,602
7,562
7,790
7,594
7,648
7,827
8,026
8,243
8,445
8,638
4.3%
-0.7%
-7.1%
-0.5%
3.0%
-2.5%
0.7%
2.3%
2.5%
2.7%
2.4%
2.3%
1.5%
7,521
7,512
7,596
7,717
7,861
7,969
8,086
-3.4%
-0.1%
1.1%
1.6%
1.9%
1.4%
1.5%
0.5%
1,962
2,068
2,192
2,309
2,433
2,584
2,717
4.2%
5.4%
6.0%
5.3%
5.3%
6.2%
5.1%
5.4%
1,721
1,807
1,711
1,815
1,883
1,942
2,029
2,120
2,209
2,299
2,406
2,509
8.2%
5.0%
-5.3%
6.1%
3.7%
3.2%
4.5%
4.5%
4.2%
4.1%
4.7%
4.3%
4.2%
1,924
1,993
2,056
2,120
2,184
2,255
2,326
2.2%
3.6%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%
125
129
137
145
153
161
171
12%
3.6%
6.0%
5.6%
5.5%
5.5%
5.9%
6.3%
81
94
100
116
112
122
125
132
138
144
151
158
20%
16%
7.1%
15%
-3.4%
9.4%
2.7%
5.0%
4.6%
4.6%
4.5%
4.9%
5.1%
120
121
126
131
136
141
147
7.1%
1.3%
4.2%
3.9%
3.9%
3.8%
4.1%
4.0%
9,759
9,999
10,414
10,805
11,229
11,693
12,057
-0.3%
2.5%
4.1%
3.8%
3.9%
4.1%
3.1%
3.0%
10,043
10,083
9,413
9,493
9,784
9,658
9,803
10,078
10,372
10,686
11,002
11,305
5.0%
0.4%
-6.6%
0.8%
3.1%
-1.3%
1.5%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.1%
9,565
9,626
9,778
9,968
10,182
10,365
10,560
-2.2%
0.6%
1.6%
1.9%
2.2%
1.8%
1.9%
1.1%
Released Issue
Page 49
Figure 45. Traffic and growth on the biggest region-to-region flows through the ESRA.
IFR Movements(000s)
2010
1 ESRA North-W
2 ESRA Mediter
3 ESRA Mediter
4 ESRA East
5 ESRA North-W
6 ESRA East
7 ESRA East
8 ESRA North-W
ESRA North-W
ESRA North-W
ESRA Mediter
ESRA North-W
North Atlant
ESRA East
ESRA Mediter
North-Africa
2011
Annual Growth
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
3656.1
3717.6
3817.5
3898.8
3982.2
4044.1
4082.4
-0.6%
1.7%
2.7%
2.1%
2.1%
1.6%
0.9%
1.5%
3573.2
3679.4
3627.4
3661.7
3724.5
3791.0
3857.9
3897.0
3942.2
-2.5%
3.0%
-1.4%
0.9%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.0%
3598.1
3607.6
3632.7
3668.4
3710.5
3725.9
3751.0
-2.2%
0.3%
0.7%
1.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.7%
0.3%
1654.7
1679.8
1742.3
1800.4
1864.1
1927.1
1958.3
-1.2%
1.5%
3.7%
3.3%
3.5%
3.4%
1.6%
2.3%
1576.8
1674.8
1636.3
1643.7
1681.2
1725.1
1773.1
1816.2
1856.9
1.8%
6.2%
-2.3%
0.5%
2.3%
2.6%
2.8%
2.4%
2.2%
1.5%
1618.8
1610.7
1624.5
1650.0
1681.0
1702.4
1725.7
-3.3%
-0.5%
0.9%
1.6%
1.9%
1.3%
1.4%
0.4%
1414.9
1428.0
1478.7
1536.9
1606.8
1706.2
1778.8
-4.4%
0.9%
3.6%
3.9%
4.5%
6.2%
4.3%
2.7%
1466.9
1480.4
1397.5
1395.0
1429.4
1471.5
1525.6
1596.9
1655.1
1.5%
0.9%
-5.6%
-0.2%
2.5%
2.9%
3.7%
4.7%
3.6%
1.6%
1383.2
1366.9
1382.3
1409.2
1447.4
1487.9
1524.8
-6.6%
-1.2%
1.1%
1.9%
2.7%
2.8%
2.5%
0.4%
518.9
533.4
566.4
597.7
631.0
660.6
691.3
-0.3%
2.8%
6.2%
5.5%
5.6%
4.7%
4.7%
4.1%
510.6
520.3
511.7
519.0
539.5
561.1
582.4
600.0
620.0
-0.6%
1.9%
-1.6%
1.4%
4.0%
4.0%
3.8%
3.0%
3.3%
2.5%
505.6
508.1
520.8
535.2
549.3
559.5
571.8
-2.8%
0.5%
2.5%
2.8%
2.6%
1.9%
2.2%
1.4%
320.7
330.4
343.8
356.8
370.1
383.1
396.1
-0.6%
3.0%
4.1%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.4%
3.0%
308.1
322.6
318.1
325.3
334.7
344.3
353.1
361.5
371.1
-0.3%
4.7%
-1.4%
2.2%
2.9%
2.9%
2.6%
2.4%
2.7%
2.0%
315.6
320.4
326.0
331.8
337.5
342.6
348.8
-2.1%
1.5%
1.7%
1.8%
1.7%
1.5%
1.8%
1.1%
227.7
234.3
252.5
271.4
291.8
311.5
334.2
-0.1%
2.9%
7.8%
7.5%
7.5%
6.8%
7.3%
5.6%
234.9
227.8
224.1
227.3
238.2
249.9
262.0
272.8
284.9
-1.2%
-3.0%
-1.6%
1.4%
4.8%
4.9%
4.8%
4.1%
4.4%
3.2%
221.5
222.8
230.3
238.7
247.2
254.3
262.5
-2.7%
0.6%
3.4%
3.6%
3.6%
2.9%
3.2%
2.0%
200.4
208.2
226.7
245.9
267.4
298.0
323.8
-3.2%
3.9%
8.9%
8.4%
8.7%
11%
8.7%
6.6%
199.3
207.0
196.9
201.5
213.7
227.1
242.0
261.8
279.2
4.1%
3.8%
-4.8%
2.3%
6.1%
6.3%
6.5%
8.2%
6.7%
4.4%
194.1
196.3
205.1
215.2
226.0
238.5
250.4
-6.2%
1.2%
4.5%
4.9%
5.0%
5.5%
5.0%
2.8%
220.4
240.5
255.3
267.3
279.6
291.2
302.1
11%
9.1%
6.1%
4.7%
4.6%
4.2%
3.7%
6.2%
228.5
198.2
219.1
238.0
249.1
259.3
270.0
280.1
290.9
7.5%
-13%
11%
8.6%
4.7%
4.1%
4.1%
3.7%
3.9%
5.6%
216.9
234.0
242.2
249.8
258.0
265.6
274.4
9.4%
7.8%
3.5%
3.1%
3.3%
3.0%
3.3%
4.8%
I
Page 50
2010
AAGR
2018/
2011
Released Issue
ANNEX E.
E.1
FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH
Summary of the Forecast. Annual IFR Movements 2006-2018.
Figure 46. Annual traffic per traffic zone and 2012-2018 average annual growth.
2006
Albania
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium/Luxembourg
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Canary Islands
Croatia
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
AAGR
2018/
2011
209
226
237
247
257
270
278
5.0%
119
142
148
161
181
197
206
222
229
237
245
255
264
4.2%
204
217
222
227
233
240
246
3.2%
64
70
76
82
88
96
103
8.8%
43
48
52
48
53
57
64
68
73
78
83
88
94
7.4%
63
67
71
74
78
83
87
6.2%
. 1,154 1,200
1,254
1,300
1,354
1,410
1,456
3.4%
1,092
1,180
1,204 1,113 1,137 1,154 1,143 1,174
1,212
1,252
1,292
1,332
1,373
2.5%
. 1,132 1,152
1,173
1,199
1,226
1,250
1,275
1.4%
131
141
153
165
178
197
213
8.1%
92
95
108
108
120
124
130
138
148
158
168
182
195
6.7%
129
136
144
152
160
170
180
5.5%
246
262
282
299
317
336
356
6.8%
146
173
199
182
196
225
243
256
270
283
296
309
322
5.3%
241
251
260
269
279
287
296
4.0%
. 1,110 1,140
1,184
1,224
1,267
1,304
1,337
2.9%
1,056
1,100
1,108 1,020 1,035 1,091 1,098 1,118
1,147
1,178
1,209
1,235
1,264
2.1%
. 1,087 1,098
1,112
1,131
1,153
1,169
1,187
1.2%
285
307
324
341
359
380
397
5.3%
168
201
218
224
250
276
282
300
311
324
337
353
367
4.2%
278
294
301
310
320
329
339
3.0%
559
591
627
661
698
765
809
6.0%
402
444
478
477
504
539
552
578
605
631
658
705
740
4.6%
547
566
587
607
627
656
681
3.4%
303
309
320
333
347
358
370
3.1%
303
308
307
267
275
298
299
301
306
313
321
326
332
1.6%
296
295
295
298
303
303
305
0.4%
509
527
556
583
613
648
673
4.4%
339
398
422
422
459
497
503
515
534
555
577
602
625
3.3%
497
504
517
531
547
563
578
2.2%
Released Issue
Page 51
2006
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Page 52
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
AAGR
2018/
2011
300
310
327
344
362
388
408
5.5%
217
242
272
268
285
281
295
302
313
325
338
355
370
4.0%
291
294
302
310
319
330
340
2.7%
716
740
781
818
859
901
940
4.4%
612
646
682
648
668
695
707
723
750
776
803
828
853
3.0%
700
709
725
743
761
775
790
1.8%
625
644
666
686
706
724
739
2.4%
602
631
629
576
595
625
619
632
647
663
677
689
702
1.7%
613
621
629
637
647
653
661
0.8%
188
197
210
223
235
247
260
5.6%
137
153
174
153
156
178
186
193
202
211
220
228
237
4.2%
184
189
195
202
208
214
220
3.1%
127
129
135
141
148
156
161
3.8%
118
123
125
125
125
124
125
125
130
134
140
146
151
2.8%
123
122
125
128
133
136
140
1.7%
266
271
283
295
306
315
326
2.9%
246
245
261
240
242
267
263
266
274
282
290
295
302
1.8%
261
262
266
273
278
281
285
0.9%
. 2,976 3,027
3,139
3,241
3,349
3,436
3,493
2.4%
2,854
3,025
3,020 2,801 2,794 2,968 2,945 2,968
3,037
3,114
3,198
3,258
3,322
1.6%
. 2,914 2,913
2,942
2,988
3,040
3,070
3,110
0.7%
117
126
136
146
157
174
187
7.9%
73
80
80
77
94
110
115
123
131
139
148
161
172
6.6%
114
120
127
134
141
150
158
5.4%
. 3,073 3,143
3,271
3,385
3,507
3,621
3,727
2.8%
2,971
3,108
3,151 2,930 2,981 3,078 3,041 3,082
3,167
3,255
3,344
3,419
3,501
1.9%
. 3,010 3,026
3,071
3,126
3,186
3,227
3,277
0.9%
668
682
710
739
774
810
839
3.6%
566
621
643
638
655
656
660
668
686
709
736
764
790
2.7%
653
655
665
680
700
718
737
1.7%
615
627
663
698
736
782
823
4.2%
605
615
622
608
622
617
608
613
638
664
691
723
753
2.9%
601
601
618
636
656
676
696
1.7%
119
126
133
139
146
153
161
5.5%
100
105
110
101
102
111
118
123
128
133
138
143
148
4.2%
116
121
125
128
131
134
138
3.2%
Released Issue
2006
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Morocco
14
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
AAGR
2018/
2011
523
542
571
602
634
667
697
4.2%
565
598
601
530
513
523
517
529
548
567
587
607
628
2.7%
512
520
530
543
556
568
581
1.5%
. 1,722 1,761
1,833
1,904
1,985
2,063
2,129
3.0%
1,641
1,779
1,736 1,647 1,712 1,726 1,704 1,725
1,771
1,824
1,885
1,940
1,997
2.1%
. 1,686 1,691
1,711
1,743
1,782
1,813
1,847
1.0%
238
251
270
287
305
324
343
5.5%
176
202
225
206
214
235
234
244
257
269
281
293
305
3.8%
232
239
247
256
265
272
280
2.5%
453
464
486
502
520
537
553
3.0%
401
427
438
406
429
450
448
454
461
470
483
493
504
1.6%
443
444
445
448
456
460
466
0.5%
239
254
272
288
304
321
338
5.4%
173
195
219
192
206
233
236
247
259
271
282
292
303
3.8%
234
242
250
258
266
272
279
2.6%
94
106
112
117
124
132
138
8.0%
76
82
84
85
95
81
93
104
107
111
116
121
126
6.6%
91
101
104
107
110
114
117
5.5%
67
72
78
83
89
96
104
8.0%
28
35
41
44
54
60
65
70
74
78
83
88
93
6.3%
65
69
72
75
78
82
85
5.0%
350
364
385
405
427
446
467
4.1%
303
323
331
312
339
352
347
357
371
385
401
414
429
2.9%
343
349
358
368
379
387
397
1.7%
. 1,104 1,129
1,167
1,193
1,220
1,244
1,266
2.2%
1,056
1,108
1,090
996 1,013 1,085 1,093 1,109
1,136
1,164
1,182
1,197
1,215
1.6%
. 1,083 1,090
1,104
1,120
1,138
1,152
1,168
1.1%
585
600
619
636
655
671
687
2.9%
513
536
550
526
537
563
581
591
604
616
629
640
652
2.1%
576
583
588
595
603
607
613
1.2%
702
740
788
834
883
930
982
6.0%
491
556
612
566
599
655
694
722
753
785
816
845
876
4.2%
686
709
728
750
770
788
807
3.0%
14
This report includes a forecast for Morocco which should be treated with extreme care. First of all, traffic counts presented
here are those recorded by Network Management system of EUROCONTROLsome internal flights may be missing, flights
departing from Ceuta-Melilla are considered as Moroccan overflights. Work is in progress to clarify these data. Second, forecast
shall be treated as less certain than for longer-established regions in Europe for which we have a better understanding of local
markets.
Released Issue
Page 53
2006
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
Serbia&Montenegro
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
UK
ESRA02
Page 54
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
AAGR
2018/
2011
497
517
553
589
629
681
727
5.9%
416
432
444
434
470
487
491
504
530
556
583
617
649
4.2%
486
494
512
531
551
574
596
2.9%
131
135
142
149
156
162
167
4.5%
107
109
116
113
118
123
129
132
137
142
147
151
156
3.5%
128
129
132
135
139
141
145
2.4%
571
603
635
666
699
743
775
4.8%
393
458
497
513
543
558
564
590
612
636
661
693
721
3.7%
558
578
593
610
628
649
668
2.6%
390
401
424
446
470
498
523
4.6%
330
324
345
337
370
382
386
391
408
424
441
459
477
3.2%
381
384
395
406
418
429
442
2.1%
361
374
393
410
430
452
469
4.2%
267
306
327
313
328
353
356
365
378
392
406
422
436
3.1%
352
358
366
375
385
395
404
2.0%
. 1,592 1,604
1,667
1,726
1,794
1,847
1,897
1.9%
1,641
1,779
1,747 1,581 1,608 1,665 1,571 1,564
1,593
1,631
1,677
1,708
1,745
0.7%
. 1,552 1,528
1,532
1,550
1,576
1,587
1,604
-0.5%
731
753
784
812
841
867
894
3.1%
689
708
736
654
664
724
725
740
762
783
803
820
840
2.1%
719
728
741
754
767
776
787
1.2%
. 1,060 1,088
1,128
1,165
1,202
1,233
1,258
2.4%
1,032
1,093
1,096 1,018 1,025 1,063 1,048 1,066
1,092
1,121
1,152
1,177
1,201
1.8%
. 1,037 1,045
1,057
1,075
1,095
1,109
1,125
0.8%
. 1,096 1,158
1,230
1,303
1,381
1,557
1,656
6.9%
693
757
822
857
965 1,039 1,083 1,135
1,201
1,263
1,328
1,461
1,553
5.9%
. 1,073 1,113
1,172
1,224
1,277
1,364
1,433
4.7%
472
498
538
578
619
668
715
6.7%
345
373
406
378
429
453
466
487
517
548
579
615
649
5.3%
462
478
502
526
551
576
602
4.2%
. 2,222 2,263
2,348
2,429
2,506
2,577
2,584
2.1%
2,465
2,550
2,514 2,278 2,181 2,241 2,203 2,225
2,279
2,338
2,398
2,447
2,502
1.6%
. 2,185 2,192
2,222
2,260
2,301
2,333
2,369
0.8%
. 9,628 9,869 10,270 10,648 11,057 11,507 11,856
3.0%
9,439
9,916
9,954 9,301 9,367 9,641 9,529 9,677

.
. 9,437 9,504
Released Issue
9,944 10,228 10,532 10,840 11,135
2.1%
9,649
1.1%
9,830 10,038 10,214 10,403
2006
EU27
ESRA08
Baltic
Blue Med
Danube
FAB CE
FAB EC
NEFAB
SW Portugal - Spai
UK-Ireland
DK-SE
2008
2009
2010
2014
2015
. 8,991 9,201
9,570
9,913 10,284 10,647 10,949
2.8%
9,470 8,787 8,805 9,036 8,898 9,018
9,249
9,502
9,771 10,008 10,254
1.8%
8,969
9,122
9,300
2011
2012
2013
2016
2017
2018
8,937
9,441
. 8,810 8,854
9,582
0.8%
. 9,759 9,999 10,414 10,805 11,229 11,693 12,057
3.0%
9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,658 9,803 10,078 10,372 10,686 11,002 11,305
2.1%
SES
2007
AAGR
2018/
2011
9,430
. 9,565 9,626
9,778
9,968 10,182 10,365 10,560
1.1%
. 9,371 9,592
9,976 10,332 10,718 11,093 11,409
2.8%
9,337
9,794
9,645
9,907 10,187 10,433 10,688
1.8%
. 9,185 9,235
9,355
9,514
9,699
9,834
9,991
0.9%
786
821
875
928
982
1,037
1,095
5.7%
704
644
679
741
776
800
836
872
907
940
975
4.0%
767
785
808
832
856
876
898
2.8%
. 2,336 2,411
2,515
2,619
2,738
2,862
2,967
3.7%
2,310 2,225 2,308 2,296 2,311 2,361
2,429
2,507
2,597
2,685
2,772
2.7%
. 2,286 2,314
2,348
2,398
2,459
2,512
2,568
1.6%
787
826
880
931
988
1,075
1,141
6.0%
690
687
734
758
778
807
846
884
924
984
1,034
4.5%
770
791
820
848
878
916
950
3.3%
. 1,938 2,008
2,111
2,206
2,311
2,425
2,522
4.0%
1,904 1,806 1,864 1,914 1,917 1,963
2,033
2,105
2,180
2,256
2,331
2.9%
. 1,897 1,925
1,968
2,016
2,067
2,112
2,159
1.7%
. 5,663 5,794
6,013
6,206
6,409
6,589
6,729
2.5%
5,816 5,406 5,431 5,671 5,607 5,686
5,827
5,978
6,133
6,254
6,384
1.7%
. 5,551 5,584
5,652
5,743
5,847
5,913
5,995
0.8%
. 1,651 1,695
1,762
1,822
1,884
1,940
1,997
3.0%
1,616 1,487 1,519 1,619 1,636 1,667
1,710
1,754
1,797
1,832
1,873
2.1%
. 1,622 1,640
1,664
1,690
1,716
1,734
1,756
1.2%
. 1,819 1,836
1,908
1,977
2,054
2,116
2,173
2.1%
1,969 1,786 1,820 1,882 1,796 1,790
1,823
1,867
1,919
1,954
1,996
0.8%
. 1,774 1,750
1,755
1,775
1,805
1,817
1,837
-0.3%
. 2,260 2,304
2,393
2,477
2,558
2,634
2,646
2.2%
2,559 2,316 2,216 2,272 2,240 2,265
2,321
2,381
2,443
2,494
2,551
1.7%
. 2,221 2,231
2,262
2,301
2,343
2,376
2,413
0.9%
. 1,020 1,048
1,089
1,123
1,159
1,192
1,224
2.8%
1,031
931
953 1,008 1,011 1,031
1,058
1,084
1,110
1,131
1,156
2.0%
1,029
1,044
1,060
1,071
1,085
1.1%
9,833 9,152 9,171 9,407 9,275 9,404
. 1,002 1,014
Units: IFR movements (thousands).

Source: AP2 forecast dated: 21Feb12
Released Issue
Page 55
E.2
Summary of the Forecast. Growth Rates 2006-2018
Figure 47. Annual growth rates per traffic zone and 2012-2018 average annual
growth.
Albania
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium/Luxembourg
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Canary Islands
Croatia
Cyprus
Page 56
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2018
AAGR
2018/
2011
5.8%
8.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.4% 5.0% 3.0%
5.0%
19%
4.5%
8.9%
12%
8.7%
4.6%
7.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5%
4.2%
3.4%
6.6% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6%
3.2%
13%
8.2% 8.8% 8.0% 7.8% 8.4% 7.8%
8.8%
2.6%
11%
8.0% -6.7%
9.3%
8.1%
11%
7.0% 6.9% 6.7% 6.4% 6.8% 6.6%
7.4%
10%
6.1% 5.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4%
6.2%
0.0%
4.0% 4.5% 3.7% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3%
3.4%
4.1%
8.1%
2.0% -7.6%
2.2%
1.5% -1.0%
2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0%
2.5%
. -2.0%
1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2.0%
1.4%
6.3%
7.5% 8.4% 7.6% 7.7%
11% 8.2%
8.1%
4.3%
13%
0.5%
11%
2.8%
5.2%
6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 6.4% 8.6% 7.2%
6.7%
4.2%
5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.4% 6.4% 5.8%
5.5%
9.6%
6.5% 7.4% 6.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.9%
6.8%
13%
18%
16% -8.6%
7.7%
15%
8.3%
5.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3%
5.3%
7.2%
4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% 3.2%
4.0%
1.7%
2.7% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.5%
2.9%
4.9%
4.2%
0.7% -7.9%
1.5%
5.4%
0.6%
1.8% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3%
2.1%
. -0.4%
1.0% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6%
1.2%
3.5%
7.6% 5.6% 5.1% 5.3% 6.0% 4.3%
5.3%
5.5%
19%
8.5%
3.1%
11%
10%
2.2%
6.4% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.5% 4.0%
4.2%
1.0%
5.5% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9%
3.0%
3.6%
5.7% 6.1% 5.5% 5.6% 9.5% 5.8%
6.0%
1.6%
11%
7.7% -0.2%
5.6%
7.1%
2.4%
4.6% 4.7% 4.3% 4.3% 7.1% 5.1%
4.6%
1.3%
3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.7% 3.8%
3.4%
1.8%
1.9% 3.8% 3.9% 4.4% 3.1% 3.2%
3.1%
4.0%
1.7%
-0.2%
-13%
3.2%
8.2%
0.5%
0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 2.6% 1.5% 1.9%
1.6%
. -0.6% -0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.7%
0.4%
2.3%
3.6% 5.4% 4.9% 5.1% 5.7% 3.9%
4.4%
2.4%
17%
6.0%
0.1%
8.7%
8.4%
1.1%
2.4% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 3.8%
3.3%
. -0.1%
1.5% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
2.2%
6.5%
3.5% 5.5% 5.1% 5.3% 7.1% 5.3%
5.5%
4.1%
12%
6.4% -1.2%
4.8%
2.4% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9% 5.1% 4.2%
4.0%
3.4%
1.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.0%
2.7%
2006
2007
2.7%
2008
12% -1.7%
.
Released Issue
2014
2015
2016
2017
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2018
AAGR
2018/
2011
2.9%
3.4% 5.5% 4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4%
4.4%
5.5% -5.0%
3.2%
4.0%
1.7%
2.2% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0%
3.0%
0.7%
1.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.0%
1.8%
0.0%
3.0% 3.5% 2.9% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2%
2.4%
-0.3% -8.5%
3.3%
5.1% -0.9%
2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9%
1.7%
. -1.9%
1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2%
0.8%
5.5%
4.9% 6.6% 5.9% 5.6% 5.1% 5.4%
5.6%
12%
13%
-12%
2.1%
14%
4.2%
3.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 3.9%
4.2%
3.2%
2.8% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 2.6% 2.9%
3.1%
1.8%
1.5% 5.0% 4.6% 4.8% 5.2% 3.7%
3.8%
6.8%
3.9%
2.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4%
0.4%
0.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 4.0% 3.7%
2.8%
. -0.9% -0.8% 2.2% 2.8% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8%
1.7%
. -0.5%
2.1% 4.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.0% 3.4%
2.9%
6.3% -7.7%
0.6%
11% -1.5%
1.1% 2.8% 3.1% 2.7% 1.9% 2.3%
1.8%
2006
2007
2.4%
5.6%
2.9%
4.8%
-5.7%
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
1.4% -0.3%
2008
.
2014
2015
2016
2017
. -2.4%
0.4% 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 1.1% 1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
1.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 2.6% 1.6%
2.4%
3.9%
6.0%
6.2% -0.8%
0.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% 2.0%
1.6%
. -1.8% -0.1% 1.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% 1.3%
0.7%
6.3%
7.6% 8.4% 7.4% 7.4%
11% 7.6%
7.9%
-1.2%
9.7%
-0.0% -3.6%
22%
16%
5.0%
6.5% 6.8% 6.3% 6.1% 8.6% 6.8%
6.6%
3.7%
5.7% 5.8% 5.4% 5.1% 6.3% 5.5%
5.4%
. -0.2%
2.3% 4.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 2.9%
2.8%
4.2%
4.6%
1.4% -7.0%
1.7%
3.2% -1.2%
1.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.4%
1.9%
. -2.2%
0.5% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5%
0.9%
1.9%
2.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.6% 4.8% 3.5%
3.6%
3.2%
9.9%
3.4% -0.8%
2.6%
0.2%
0.7%
1.2% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5%
2.7%
. -0.4%
0.3% 1.5% 2.3% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6%
1.7%
. -0.3%
2.1% 5.7% 5.2% 5.4% 6.3% 5.2%
4.2%
4.4%
1.8%
2.4% -0.8% -1.5%
0.8% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.6% 4.1%
2.9%
. -2.5% -0.1% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0%
1.7%
7.3%
5.8% 5.5% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% 4.8%
5.5%
4.1%
5.7%
4.2% -7.8%
0.6%
9.0%
6.1%
4.8% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8%
4.2%
5.0%
4.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8%
3.2%
0.0%
3.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.4% 5.3% 4.4%
4.2%
5.4%
5.9%
0.5%
1.9% -1.1%
2.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5%
2.7%
. -2.1%
1.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4%
1.5%
-0.2% -7.3% -0.2%
1.1% -2.3%
-12% -3.1%
.
Released Issue
Page 57
Italy
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
14
Morocco
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
Page 58
2018
AAGR
2018/
2011
. -0.2%
2.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.2%
3.0%
3.9%
0.8% -1.3%
1.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9%
2.1%
. -2.3%
0.3% 1.2% 1.9% 2.3% 1.7% 1.9%
1.0%
1.1%
5.4% 7.5% 6.6% 6.3% 5.9% 5.9%
5.5%
11% -8.4%
4.0%
9.8% -0.4%
4.0% 5.2% 5.0% 4.4% 4.0% 4.2%
3.8%
. -1.5%
3.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2.4% 4.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0%
3.0%
2.7% -7.2%
5.6%
4.8% -0.5%
1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 2.9% 2.0% 2.3%
1.6%
. -1.6%
0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 1.3%
0.5%
2.6%
6.1% 7.0% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.4%
5.4%
13%
12%
-12%
7.3%
13%
1.2%
4.7% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.8%
3.8%
0.0%
3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6%
2.6%
16%
13% 5.3% 5.1% 5.3% 6.4% 5.2%
8.0%
0.2%
8.1%
3.4%
0.7%
12%
-15%
15%
12% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 4.6% 4.2%
6.6%
13%
11% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1%
5.5%
10%
8.1% 7.9% 7.2% 7.3% 8.1% 7.4%
8.0%
7.8%
25%
18%
6.7%
24%
11%
8.4%
6.7% 6.0% 5.7% 5.6% 6.0% 5.8%
6.3%
7.2%
5.8% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
5.0%
. -0.6%
3.9% 6.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.6% 4.5%
4.1%
10%
6.6%
2.5% -5.8%
8.6%
3.9% -1.6%
2.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 3.3% 3.6%
2.9%
. -2.7%
2.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.2% 2.6%
1.7%
1.7%
2.3% 3.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8%
2.2%
6.0%
4.9%
-1.6% -8.6%
1.7%
7.2%
0.8%
1.4% 2.4% 2.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.5%
1.6%
. -0.2%
0.6% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4%
1.1%
3.8%
2.5% 3.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4%
2.9%
6.1%
4.5%
2.6% -4.4%
2.2%
4.9%
3.1%
1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 1.0%
1.2%
7.3%
5.3% 6.5% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6%
6.0%
16%
13%
10% -7.6%
5.8%
9.4%
6.0%
4.1% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.5% 3.7%
4.2%
4.9%
3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.2% 2.5%
3.0%
1.9%
4.1% 7.0% 6.5% 6.7% 8.3% 6.8%
5.9%
1.3%
4.0%
2.7% -2.3%
8.2%
3.8%
0.7%
2.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 6.0% 5.2%
4.2%
. -0.4%
1.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 4.1% 3.8%
2.9%
6.3%
3.5% 5.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.1% 3.2%
4.5%
0.9%
1.7%
6.5% -2.6%
4.5%
4.3%
5.0%
2.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.7% 2.8% 3.4%
3.5%
3.8%
1.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.6% 1.9% 2.4%
2.4%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
4.0%
8.4%
-2.4% -5.1%
13%
15%
5.7%
6.3%
6.0%
2011
Released Issue
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Serbia&Montenegro
Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
UK
ESRA02
EU27
ESRA08
2010
2011
2012
2013
2018
2.3%
5.7% 5.3% 4.8% 5.0% 6.3% 4.2%
4.8%
16%
8.6%
3.3%
5.9%
2.7%
1.1%
4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.8% 4.0%
3.7%
0.0%
3.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0%
2.6%
2.2%
2.8% 5.8% 5.2% 5.4% 5.8% 5.1%
4.6%
6.4% -2.4%
9.9%
3.1%
1.0%
1.5% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 4.2% 3.9%
3.2%
2006
2007
8.7%
L
H
B
Slovenia
2009
AAGR
2018/
2011
3.8% -1.6%
2008
2014
2015
2016
2017
. -0.1%
0.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%
2.1%
2.3%
3.6% 5.1% 4.5% 4.7% 5.2% 3.9%
4.2%
3.7%
15%
6.8% -4.2%
4.8%
7.5%
1.0%
2.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.9% 3.5%
3.1%
. -0.1%
1.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%
2.0%
. -4.4%
0.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.9% 2.9% 2.7%
1.9%
5.1%
8.4%
-1.8% -9.5%
1.8%
3.6% -5.6% -0.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 1.8% 2.2%
0.7%
. -6.8% -1.6% 0.2% 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 1.1%
-0.5%
1.0%
2.9% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1% 3.2%
3.1%
3.8%
2.8%
3.9%
-11%
1.5%
9.1%
0.1%
2.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.4%
2.1%
. -0.8%
1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.5%
1.2%
. -0.2%
2.6% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
5.9%
0.3% -7.1%
0.7%
3.6% -1.3%
1.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.2% 2.0%
1.8%
. -2.4%
0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5%
0.8%
5.5%
5.6% 6.2% 5.9% 6.0%
13% 6.3%
6.9%
8.0%
9.2%
8.6%
4.2%
13%
7.6%
4.3%
4.7% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1%
10% 6.3%
5.9%
3.3%
3.8% 5.3% 4.5% 4.3% 6.8% 5.1%
4.7%
4.1%
5.5% 8.1% 7.3% 7.2% 7.9% 7.0%
6.7%
1.3%
8.2%
8.7% -6.9%
14%
5.5%
2.9%
4.4% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 6.1% 5.7%
5.3%
1.9%
3.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5%
4.2%
. -0.8%
1.8% 3.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 0.3%
2.1%
3.4%
3.5%
-1.4% -9.4% -4.3%
2.8% -1.7%
1.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.1% 2.2%
1.6%
. -2.5%
0.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6%
0.8%
. -0.1%
2.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 4.1% 3.0%
3.0%
3.9%
5.1%
0.4% -6.6%
0.7%
2.9% -1.2%
1.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7%
2.1%
. -2.1%
0.7% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8%
1.1%
. -0.5%
2.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 2.8%
2.8%
3.5%
5.6%
0.3% -7.2%
0.2%
2.6% -1.5%
1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.5%
1.8%
. -2.5%
0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6%
0.8%
. -0.3%
2.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 3.1%
3.0%
3.7%
5.0%
0.4% -6.6%
0.8%
3.1% -1.3%
1.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8%
2.1%
. -2.2%
0.6% 1.6% 1.9% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9%
1.1%
Released Issue
Page 59
SES
Baltic
Blue Med
Danube
FAB CE
FAB EC
NEFAB
SW Portugal - Spai
UK-Ireland
DK-SE
2018
AAGR
2018/
2011
. -0.4%
2.4% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 2.8%
2.8%
0.2%
2.6% -1.4%
1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.5%
1.8%
. -2.4%
0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6%
0.9%
6.0%
4.4% 6.7% 6.0% 5.9% 5.5% 5.6%
5.7%
. -8.6%
5.5%
9.2%
4.6%
3.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7%
4.0%
3.5%
2.3% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5%
2.8%
1.8%
3.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.5% 4.5% 3.6%
3.7%
. -3.7%
3.7% -0.5%
0.6%
2.2% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2%
2.7%
. -0.5%
1.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2%
1.6%
3.8%
5.0% 6.5% 5.9% 6.1% 8.8% 6.2%
6.0%
. -0.4%
6.7%
3.3%
2.6%
3.8% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 6.5% 5.0%
4.5%
1.5%
2.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.3% 3.8%
3.3%
1.3%
3.6% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.9% 4.0%
4.0%
. -5.1%
3.2%
2.7%
0.2%
2.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3%
2.9%
. -0.9%
1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2%
1.7%
. -0.1%
2.3% 3.8% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.1%
2.5%
. -7.0%
0.5%
4.4% -1.1%
1.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0% 2.1%
1.7%
. -2.1%
0.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.1% 1.4%
0.8%
2.0%
2.7% 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9%
3.0%
. -8.0%
2.2%
6.6%
1.1%
1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2%
2.1%
0.2%
1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3%
1.2%
. -3.3%
0.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.9% 3.0% 2.7%
2.1%
. -9.3%
1.9%
3.4% -4.6% -0.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 1.8% 2.2%
0.8%
. -5.7% -1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 1.7% 0.7% 1.1%
-0.3%
. -0.5%
2.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 0.5%
2.2%
. 3E8% -9.5% -4.3%
2.5% -1.4%
1.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3%
1.7%
. -2.2%
0.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6%
0.9%
1.2%
2.8% 3.8% 3.2% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7%
2.8%
. -9.7%
2.4%
5.7%
0.3%
2.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2%
2.0%
. -0.6%
1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3%
1.1%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
3.6%
4.9%
0.4% -6.9%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Units: IFR movements growth compared to the previous year.

Source: AP2 forecast dated: 21Feb12
Page 60
Released Issue
ANNEX F.
REFERENCES
Electronic versions of most references are available on www.eurocontrol.int/statfor.

1
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast Update, Flight Movements (2011-2017)

EUROCONTROL STATFOR, September 2011, [MTF11b].
STATFOR Interactive Dashboard accessible at www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid
www.eurocontrol.int/statfor
Challenges of Growth 2008, Summary Report, EUROCONTROL, November 2008.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast, Flight Movements (2011-2017) EUROCONTROL

STATFOR February 2011, [MTF11]
EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics & Forecasts, EUROCONTROL STATFOR,

January 2005.
STATFOR Geographical Hierarchy, STATFOR Doc172, February 2009.
Low-Cost Panel v5, EUROCONTROL STATFOR, September 2007.
EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast, Flight Movements 2010-2030, December 2010.
10
Estimated effects of ETS on passenger demand for flights in 2012-2016, EUROCONTROL

STATFOR Doc365, March 2010.
11
Estimating Air Travel Demand Elasticities, Prepared by InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. for
IATA, December 2007.
Released Issue
Page 61
For further information, please contact:

STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service
statfor.info@eurocontrol.int
http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor
EUROCONTROL
The Statistics and

Forecasts Service
(STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008
certified
2012 - European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may
be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the
source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from
EUROCONTROL.

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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

. 9,759 9,999 10,414 10,805 11,229 11,693 12,057

9,968 10,182 10,365 10,560

a slow recovery of traffic following the end of the Arab Spring,

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Figure 2. Average annual growth 2011-2013 for each State.

Medium-Term (to 2018)

Lack of airport capacity means a reduction of around 134,000 IFR departures

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Continuing improvements to the high-speed train network reduce growth by around

Figure 3. Average annual growth 2011-2018 for each State.

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

This page has been deliberately left blank.

EUROCONTROL MediumTerm Forecast: IFR Flight

EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight

STATUS, AUDIENCE AND ACCESSIBILITY

I:\CND\COE\IM\FTA\STATFOR\Documents\455 MTF12 report

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified.

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD

REASON FOR CHANGE

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Summary of Forecast Method...................................................................................................8

2. TRAFFIC IN 2011 .................................................................................................9

Summary of growth .................................................................................................................17

Other risks to the Forecast......................................................................................................22

Airport constraints ...................................................................................................................23

High-Speed Train ....................................................................................................................24

Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)..........................................................................................25

Comparison with earlier forecasts...........................................................................................26

TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS .................................................32

Traffic regions .........................................................................................................................32

Functional Airspace Blocks .....................................................................................................33

SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS...............................34

Low-Cost Carrier Growth ........................................................................................................37

High-Speed Train Network Development ...............................................................................39

Load Factors ...........................................................................................................................41

Events and Trends ..................................................................................................................43

Airport Traffic Switch ...............................................................................................................45

Emissions Trading Scheme ....................................................................................................46

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ESRA ......................48

FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH.......................................................51

Summary of the Forecast. Annual IFR Movements 2006-2018..............................................51

Summary of the Forecast. Growth Rates 2006-2018 .............................................................56

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Figure 34. Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone ..........................................................................38

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Summary of Forecast Method

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Figure 4. Actual traffic compared with the forecast of December 2010.