Instructor:

January10,2012 PSCI2702A

VandnaBhatia 5202600,ext1360 vandna_bhatia@carleton.ca

OfficeHours: OfficeHours
Wednesdays,1:00pmto4:00pm LoebA625
1 2

y Syllabus Weeklytopicsandresources Onlinequizzes Assignments(labsandessay) PASSPrograminformation ContactinformationforinstructorandTAs

p Understandtheroleofstatisticsinempirical politicalscienceresearch; Understandandinterprettheresultsofbasic statisticaltechniquesusedinpoliticalscience research. research

Textbook
6

Format:
1lecture(100minutes)perweek
Tuesdays,2:35to4:25pm

Statistics:A ToolforSocial Research

FirstCanadianEdition
JosephHealeyand StephenPrus (2010). Publishers:Thomson P bli h Th andNelson. AvailableatHaven Books

1lab(50minutes)perweek
Beforeandafterclass checkyourtimetablefortimes, locationsandTA

Tutorials/Labs Tutorialsbegin Tuesday January17

Group A01 A02 A03 A04 A05 A A06 A07 A08 TA SimonLanglois Bertrand SimonLanglois Bertrand Benjamin Gigg Benjamin Gigg Michael Laughton h l h Michael Laughton Alejandro Pachon Alejandro Pachon Time 1:352:25 4:355:25 1:352:25 4:355:25 1:352:25 4:355:25 1:352:25 4:355:25 Location Southam 509 Loeb B250 Loeb B250 Southam 509 Southam 513 S th LoebB241 Loeb B241 Southam 507
7

Item Labs 8of9assignments@5% OnlineQuizzes 3@5% ProjectAssignment FinalExam Total

DueDate(s) Seesyllabus January30 February27 March19 April3 Examperiod

Grade 40%

15% 15% 25% 100%

8

Labassignmentsaretobehandedinduring g g regularlyscheduledlabsessions;essayisdue inclass. Assignmentsreceivedafterclass/labonthe duedateareconsideredlate,includingthose inthedropbox. inthedropbox

Latepenaltiesareassessedonadailybasis, includingweekends. Extensionsrequireappropriatedocumentation.
9

Donotcollaboratewithotherswhenwriting g yourassignment Donotshareyourwrittenwork Donotaskotherstoprintyourassignment Donotaskotherstohandinyourassignment

Assignmentsdeemedbytheinstructortobetoo similarwillbegivenagradeofzero.
10

y ( ) PeerAssistedStudySessions(PASS)
WeeklystudysessionsforstudentstakingPSCI 2702A PASSfacilitatorforPSCI2702AisKirstenMah
Moreinformationabouttheprogramisavailablefrom:
PASSwebsite:http://www.carleton.ca/sasc/pass_home/ p p _ Byemail:pass@carleton.ca

AboutTakinganIntroductoryStatisticsCourse

11

12

Statisticsisamathcourseandyoudidntgointo PoliticalSciencetotakemath! Thiscourseisallaboutmemorizingformulas ThiscoursewilldecimateyourGPA Youcangetbywithoutcomingtoclasses,sinceall thecoursematerialsareonWebCT Youcancramfortheexamandgetby YoullNEVEREVERusestatisticsonceyougetout ofthiscourse!

13 14

15

16

17

18

InPoliticalAnalysis

p y Thescientificmethodisaprocessbywhich wecanempiricallytestourideasabout politicsinawaythatis

Rigorous Replicable Systematic S t ti

19

20

Empirical p Transmissible General Explanatory Predictive

Theory

Hypothesis Generation

Conclusions, Empirical Generalizations

Observation, Data Collection

Data Analysis
21 22

WhoVotedfor BarackObama? NewYorkTimes 2008Presidential 8P id i l Election

Pollsconductedby EdisonMedia Research/Mitofsky Internationalforthe NewYorkTimes, November5,2008

Observation:Visibleminorities seemtovotemoreoftenfor Democraticcandidates. Hypothesis:Visibleminoritiesvoters favourtheDemocraticParty. Variables:

Independentvariable:Voters minority Independentvariable:Votersminority status Dependentvariable:Partyvotedfor

y g g g Reducedata byorganizingandsummarizing itindescriptiveterms; Identifypatternsofrelationshipsbetween variables Makeinferencesaboutthelargergroupor phenomenafromasmallsubsectionofthat grouporphenomena

ExitPollResults
23 24

Statistics aremathematicaltoolsusedto organize,summarize,andmanipulatedata.

Data arescoresonvariables,orinformation expressedasnumbers(quantitatively).
Variables aretraitsthatcanchangevaluesfromcase to case(e.g.,age,gender,socialclass). g g g
Cases aretheentitiesfromwhichdataaregathered(e.g.,people, groups,provinces,countries).

Twomainstatisticalapplications: pp
Descriptivestatistics Inferentialstatistics

25

26

( ) Summarizeonevariable(univariate) Summarizetherelationshipbetweentwo variables(bivariate). Summarizetherelationshipbetweenthreeor morevariables(multivariate).

p g Univariate descriptivestatisticsdescribelarge amountsofinformation/datainfewer,more understandableterms Suchas:

Percentages,averages,andvariouschartsand graphs. graphs

27

28

Whichpartywonthe mostvotes?

Whichpartywouldwin today?

IntheCanadian federalelectionin f d l l i i May2011,which partyreceivedthe mostvotes?

Party Conservatives NDP Liberals BQ Greens Other

Votes 5,835,270 4,512,411 2,783,076 891,425 572,095 129,703

%Vote 39.6 30.6 18.9 6.0 3.9 0.4

Ifafederalelection h ld d i washeldtodayin Canada,what wouldtheseat distributionlook likebasedon currentvoting intentions?

GlobeandMail, January4,2011

29

30

CanadaUnitedin VotingTrudeauPM oftheCentury

GlobeandMail, January3,2000 PollconductedbyAngus Reid

p Bivariate descriptivestatisticsdescribethe strengthanddirectionoftherelationship betweentwovariables.

Mr. Trudeau was chosen as the best PM of the 20th century by 43 percent of those surveyed. p y

Sometimescalledmeasuresofassociation Quantifythestrength anddirection of relationshipsbetweenvariables

He was ranked No. 1 across the country

31

32

Attendanceand Grades
From:Moore,etal.(2003).

Fingerlengthand wealth

ShowingUp:The Importanceof ClassAttendance forAcademic Dependent SuccessinVariable Introductory ScienceCourses.

AmericanBiologyTeacher, 65(5):325.

Longerring fi bi finger,bigger profits.

GlobeandMail January13,2009 DataSource: J.M.Coatesetal.(2009). Secondtofourthdigit g ratiopredictssuccess amonghighfrequency financialtraders. ProceedingsoftheNational AcademyofSciences, 106(2).

Themenwith longerringfingers comparedwith theirindexfingers madeonaverage sixtimestheprofit duringa20month period.

Inde ependent Va ariable

33

34

WaterConsumption andHockey

ANationthat FlushesTogether? Fl h T h ?
Waterconsumption duringCanadasOlympic goldmedalgame Dependent Variable Indepe endent Variable
35

p Multivariate descriptivestatisticsdescribe therelationshipsbetweenthreeormore variables.

E.g.:GPAsincreasewithageforfemalesbutnot formales.
Threevariablesare:
GPA Gender Age

36

CanadasBest PrimeMinister?
37

Usedtomakeinferencesorgeneralizations g aboutapopulation usinginformation collectedfromasmallsample andtotest hypothesesaboutthosepopulations

h h bl Thethreevariablesare: Province ChoiceofbestPrimeMinister Percentofpopularvote

Populationincludesallcasesinwhichtheresearch isinterested. isinterested Samplesincludecarefullychosensubsets ofthe population.

38

SupportforCoalition GovernmentinCanada
40

p y Example:Votersurveys
Asample of1,001carefullyselectedvotersare interviewedabouttheirintentions Thisinformationisusedtoestimatethe intentionsofthepopulation ofall voters(e.g. 24,257,592eligiblevotersinCanada).

IpsosReidPoll,December9 11,2008 Asyoumayknow,undera signedagreement,theleadersof theFederaloppositionLiberals, NDPandBlocQuebecoishave formedaCoalitiontogovern Canadathatwouldlastforthe next18monthsandpossibly untilJune,2011.Basedonwhat youhaveseen,readorheard,do y yousupportoropposethisthree pp pp partycoalitionarrangement replacingthecurrent Conservativegovernment? N=1001 Male=485,Female=516

SupportforThreePartyCoalition?(in%)
Support 7 Oppose 4 Don'tknow/Refused 9

57

61

52

37

35

38

Total
39

Male

Female

10

Inarecentsurveyofuniversitystudents, y y , StatisticsCanadafoundthattheaverageage ofuniversitystudentsinCanadawas21.7 years.Identifythefollowing:

Whatisthevariable? 2. Wh t th d t ? Whatarethedata? 3. Whatarethecases? 4. Whatisthestatisticused?
1.
41

Variable isage. g Data aretheactualages (orscoresonthe variableage):18,22,23,etc. Cases aretheuniversity students. Statistic istheaverage theaverageageof universitystudentsinCanada

NominalMeasures
Nominal
Namesorcategories Categoriesaremutuallyexclusiveandexhaustive Examples
Whichpartydidyouvotefor?
Conservative?Liberal?NDP?Bloc?Green?Other?

Wh i Whatisyourgender? d ?
Male?Female?[Other?]

Whatregiondoyoulivein?
WesternCanada?CentralCanada?EasternCanada?

43

44

11

Ordinal
Rankorderedcategories Categoriesaremutuallyexclusiveandexhaustive Examples
Howdoyoufeelabout capitalpunishment? Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport Somewhatoppose Stronglyoppose Whatisyourhousehold income? $0to$25,000 $25,000to$50,000 $50,000+?

Interval
Useconstantunitsofmeasurement Knowtheexactdistancebetweencategories Examples
Mortalityratesofnations Percentageofvotingpopulationcastingavote,by nation i Age,inyears Income,indollarsearnedperyear GPA
45 46

A.HighestLevelof EducationAttained: Ed cationAttained

1. Noformaleducation 2. Someelementary 3. Somesecondary 4. Somepostsecondary 5. 5 Somepostgraduate

B.NumberofYearsof EducationAttained: Ed cationAttained

___years

C.NumberofYearsof EducationAttained:
1. 1 2. 3. 4.

05years 0 5years 610years 1115years 1620years

47

12