From: Sent: To: Subject:

ET07 Hoc Friday, April 01, 2011 9:41 AM Vavoso, Thomas G CIV NAVSEA, 08 RE: DASD report

Tom: We have tried to contact Mr. Schiffer but are unable to get an answer on his cell phone and left a message with his office. Please let me know if you know of an alternate means to contact Mr. Schiffer. Jane Marshall Status Officer, USNRC Incident Response -----. Original Message----From: Vavoso, Thomas G CIV NAVSEA, 08 l(b)(6) Sent: Friday, April 01, 2011 7:28 AM To: ET07 Hoc Subject: DASD report

.... Original Message ----- From: (b)(6) To:(b)(6)

(b)(6)

Sent: Fri Apr01 04:25:42 2011 Subject: Japan Nuclear Update "Michele, all, Huddled with the NRC-headed nuclear team based at the Embassy this afternoon to get an assessment from the folks working this in the field about where we are, and where we are going. Their bottom line assessments are: - The "domino theory" (the plausible hypothetical worst case) is not any longer credibly possible; it is highly unlikely to happen. (They said, in essence, that we had that situation a couple of weeks ago...and it didn't happen. Since then things have progressed such that the fission geometry no longer exists for the hypothetical bounding case to be able happen.)

0 - Not that we are out of the woods, but the situation is getting safer every day. It is "static", if not necessarily "stable". (That takes nothing away from the challenges created by the radioactive leaks of the past few weeks, or the contaminated water and ground at the plant or immediate surrounding area.) . Even if the worst happens - which as per above they don't view as a credible possibility any more - sheltering in place for Tokyo and area (including Yokosuka) for a couple of days "maximum" is recommended COA. - TEPCO and GoJ made a decision not to flood the reactors, which was the NRC recommendation, (in part because they were concerned with a "CNN moment" (pressure might build during the flood and there would be a visible vent), but they appear to be managing things and are on a good glide-path. Not as ideal as if they had flooded, but "they [TEPCO] might be right". - Leading indicator if things get out of control will be an increase in pressure and the vessel temperature going up at Unit 1 from the current 150-200 back to 700+. But if that happens there will be lead time (and cascade unlikely). - Their "realistic pessimistic case" is that we continue with the current slow bleed, which means the 50 mile remains in place but no danger to Tokyo, Yokoskuka, and the like. Things will keep looking like they do now until a structure can be built over the plant to confine it. - Modelers from Sandia who arrived today are running code to see if they can make a determination about when we will reach a "point of little concern". Lots more detail which I will spare you, but the above is the relevant assessment which may prove useful for SD for the PC discussion. Please let me know if you need anything else or have any questions for me to put to the team here in Tokyo. Michael