Recap What we did so far

( 28 July 200529 Aug 2005)

9 Lectures and 5 Lab Classes
Lecture Class
Relevance of Statistics
Data : representation
Measures of central tendency
and variability
Probability Laws
Chebysheve theorem
Discrete distributions
Uniform
Binomial
Poisson
Geometric
Hypergeometric etc.
Lab Class
Lab 1: Data
Representation


Lab2: Examples on

Probability

Lab 3: Binomial &
Poisson


Recap What we did so far
( 28 July 200529 Aug 2005)
9 Lectures and 4 Lab Classes
Lecture Class
Continuous Distributions
Uniform
Normal
Exponential
Gamma
Erlang etc.

MGF and its properties
Central Limit Theorem


Lab 4:Normal and
other

Lab 5: MGF and other
properties

What is Statistics?
Science of gathering, analyzing,
interpreting, and presenting data
Branch of mathematics
One page in Courses of study?
Facts and figures
Measurement taken on a sample
Type of distribution being used to analyze
data
Statistics is the scientific method that
enables us to make decisions as
responsibly as possible.

Statistics
The science of data to answer
research questions
Formulate a research question(s)
(hypothesis)
Collect data
Analyze and summarize data
Draw conclusions to answer research
questions
Statistical Inference
In the presence of variation

Common Statistical Graphs
Histogram -- vertical bar chart of
frequencies
Frequency Polygon -- line graph of
frequencies
Ogive -- line graph of cumulative
frequencies
Pie Chart -- proportional representation
for categories of a whole
Stem and Leaf Plot
Pareto Chart
Scatter Plot
Methods of Assigning
Probabilities
Classical method of assigning
probability (rules and laws)
Relative frequency of occurrence
(cumulated historical data)
Subjective Probability (personal
intuition or reasoning)
Four Types of Probability
Marginal Probability
Union Probability
Joint Probability
Conditional Probability
Measures of Central Tendency
Measures of central tendency yield
information about particular places
or locations in a group of numbers.
Common Measures of Location
Mode
Median
Mean
Percentiles
Quartiles
Measures of Variability

Measures of variability describe the
spread or the dispersion of a set of
data.
Common Measures of Variability
Range
Interquartile Range
Mean Absolute Deviation
Variance
Standard Deviation
Z scores and Coefficient of Variation
Probability
Distributions..
Two Types of Probability Distributions
Continuous When a variable being measured is
expressed on a continuous scale, its probability
distribution is called a continuous distribution. The
probability distribution of piston-ring diameter is
continuous.
Elapsed time between arrivals of bank customers
Percent of the labor force that is unemployed

Discrete When the parameter being measured can only
take on certain values, such as the integers 0, 1, 2, ,
the probability distribution is called a discrete
distribution. The distribution of the number of
nonconformities would be a discrete distribution.
Number of new subscribers to a magazine
Number of bad checks received by a restaurant
Number of absent employees on a given day

Some Special
Distributions
Discrete
binomial
Poisson
hypergeometric
Continuous
normal
uniform
exponential
The Expected Value of X
Let X be a discrete rv with set of
possible values D and pmf p(x). The
expected value or mean value of X,
denoted
( ) ( )
X
x D
E X x p x
e
= =

( ) or , is
X
E X
The Variance and Standard
Deviation
Let X have pmf p(x), and expected value
Then the variance of X, denoted V(X)

2 2
(or or ), is
X
o o
2 2
( ) ( ) ( ) [( ) ]
D
V X x p x E X = =

The standard deviation (SD) of X is

2
X X
o o =
Binomial Distribution
Probability
function

Mean
value

Variance
and
standard
deviation
( )
P X
n
X n X
X n
X n X
p q
( )
!
! !
=

s s

for 0
= n p
2
2
o
o o
=
= =
n p q
n p q
Poisson Distribution
Probability function
P X
X
X
where
long run average
e
X
e
( )
!
, , , ,...
:
. ...
= =
=
=

for

(the base of natural logarithms )
0 1 2 3
2 718282

Mean value

Standard deviation Variance

Hypergeometric Distribution
Probability function
N is population size
n is sample size
A is number of successes in
population
x is number of successes in
sample
=
A n
N
2
2
2
1
o
o o
=

=
A N A n N n
N
N
( ) ( )
( )
( )( )
P x
C C
C
A x N A n x
N n
( ) =

Mean
value

Variance and standard deviation
Uniform Distribution
Mean and Standard Deviation
Mean
=
+

a b
2
Mean
=
+

41 47
2
88
2
44 = =
Standard Deviation
o =
b a
12
Standard Deviation
o =

= =
47 41
12
6
3 464
1 732
.
.
Characteristics of the
Normal Distribution
Continuous
distribution
Symmetrical
distribution
Asymptotic to the
horizontal axis
Unimodal
A family of curves
Area under the curve
sums to 1.
Area to right of mean
is 1/2.
Area to left of mean
is 1/2.

1/2 1/2
X
Exponential Distribution
Continuous
Family of distributions
Skewed to the right
X varies from 0 to infinity
Apex is always at X = 0
Steadily decreases as X gets larger
Probability function f X X
X
e
( ) , = > >

for 0 0

Moments and Moment-Generating Functions

The moment-generating function (MGF) of the random
variable X is given by E(e
tX
) and denoted by M
x
(t). Hence



Let X be random variable with MGF M
x
(t). Then

= = ) ( ) (
tx
X
e E t M

x
tx
x f e ) (
}

dx x f e
tx
) (
0
) (
=
=
'
t
r
x
r
r
dt
t M d

MGF..
(a) If X is a discrete r.v., the

.
(b) If X is a continuous r.v., then

.

) x ( p e ) t ( M
x
x t
X

=
dx ) x ( f e ) t ( M
x t
X

=
Central Limit Theorem
Consider a set of independent, identically distributed
random variables Y
1
... Y
n
, all governed by an arbitrary
probability distribution with mean and finite variance
o
2
. Define the sample mean,

n
i
i n
Y Y
1
1
Central Limit Theorem. As n , the
distribution governing approaches a Normal
distribution, with mean and variance o
2
/n

Y
Coverage up to Minor I
General concepts about data
representation and use of statistics
Probability laws and Its application
including Chebyshevs Theorem, Bayes
Theorem etc.
Various Discrete distributions
Various Continuous Distributions
MGF and its properties
Central Limit Theorem