A New Wave of Chinese Assertiveness:

Roping off Scarborough Shoal, Oil Leases in Vietnams EEZ, Military Garrison on Land and Fishing Armada at Sea

Carlyle A. Thayer Paper presented to 2nd MIMA South China Sea Conference Geo-Strategic Developments and Prospects for Disputes Management Kuala Lumpur, September 4-5, 2012

Outline
I. II. ASEAN in Disarray Chinas Relations with the Philippines and Vietnam III. Eruption on the East Sea Front IV. ASEANs COC in the South China Sea

ASEAN in Disarray
Guidelines to Implement the DOC Reviving the Code of Conduct 45th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting Ructions over the Joint Communiqu Chinas Shadow over the 45th AMM

Chinas Relations with the Philippines

Years of Friendly Exchanges, 2012-13 Everyday Security Tensions in the West Philippine Sea
Oil and gas leases off Palawan Infrastructure upgrade Pagasa

Standoff at Scarborough Shoal

Chinas Relations with Vietnam

Agreement on Fundamental Principles to Guide the Settlement of Sea Disputes October 2011 All Quiet on the East Sea Front High-level Visits
Chinas Vice President XiJinping Vietnams Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh Vietnams Politburo member To Huy Rua

Chinas Relations with Vietnam

Everyday Incidents in the East Sea
Unilateral fishing ban China Marine Surveillance ship fires at Vietnamese fishermen 21 Vietnamese fishermen detained Tourism development in Paracels Temple repair in Spratly islands CNOOC oil leases in Paracel islands

Eruption on the East Sea Front

Su-27 Patrols & Law of the Sea China opens five fronts
Sansha city upgrade CNOOC leases in Vietnams EEZ Combat ready patrols Fishing Armada Military Garrison

ASEANs COC in the South China Sea

Key Elements adopted July 9, 2012 Preamble: previous agreements with China Four principles (next slide) Eight obligations (next slide) Mechanisms for settling disputes
ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation International Law including UNCLOS

ASEANs COC: 4 Principles

1. Modalities for the peaceful resolution of disputes 2. Respect the provisions of and take actions consistent with the COC 3. Encourage others to respect the purposes and principles of the COC 4. Effective monitoring mechanism

ASEANs COC: 8 Obligations

1. Ministerial level mechanism to monitor the implementation of the COC 2. Prohibition on reservations to the COC 3. Provisions of entry into force 4. Mechanism for settling disputes

ASEANs COC: 8 Obligations

5. amendment of the COC 6. Provisions for other countries to respect the COC 7. Indefinite duration of the COC 8. Registration of the COC with the ASEAN Secretary General and Secretariat of the United Nations

ASEANs COC in the South China Sea

Indonesias Shuttle Diplomacy
ASEAN Six-Point Principles on SCS

Chinas Foreign Minister visits Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei -DOC Philippines Foreign Secretary visits China September discussions on DOC/COC?
when conditions are ripe

Conclusion
DOC no practical project initiated Status of key principles on COC in absence of 45th AMM Joint Communiqu ASEAN decision-making
China and the ASEAN Chair today China and the ASEAN Chair tomorrow

Conclusion
Chinas China new tactics Vietnams Law on the Sea: cause or pretext? Chinas five fronts largely symbolic ASEAN draft COC and Indonesias non paper China and DOC/COC playing for time?

Conclusion
Two trends:
China-ASEAN diplomacy and promotion of cooperative activities under DOC and eventual discussion of COC Chinas build up of civilian and military capacity while employing new economic and commercial tactics to exercise jurisdiction over the South China Sea lying within its u-shaped line

Conclusion
Long-term trends
novel forms of Chinese assertiveness and intimidation Jingoism, resource nationalism and militarization key drivers Intensifying China-U.S strategic rivalry
US State Department concern, Peoples Daily shut up

A New Wave of Chinese Assertiveness: Roping off Scarborough Shoal, Oil Leases in Vietnams EEZ, Military Garrison on Land and Fishing Armada at Sea

Carlyle A. Thayer Paper presented to 2nd MIMA South China Sea Conference Geo-Strategic Developments and Prospects for Disputes Management, Kuala Lumpur, September 4-5, 2012