Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 1

B mn Thng k-Phn tch d bo - Khoa HTTTKT

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 2
Chng 1:
tng quan v thng k hc
Lch s ra i v pht trin ca
KHTK
i tng nghin cu ca TKH
C s l lun v c s phng php
lun ca TKH
Mt s khi nim thng dng trong TK

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 3
1. lch s ra i &
pht trin ca khTK
Thng k hc (TKH) l mt mn KH ra
i do nhu cu ca hot ng thc
tin XH
* Thi k chim hu n l
* Thi k Phong kin
* Thi k TBCN
* Ngy nay

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 4
2.i tng nghin cu ca thng k hc
2.1. KhI nim thng k hc
Thng k l h thng cc phng php dng
thu thp, x l v phn tch cc con s (mt l-
ng) ca nhng hin tng s ln tm hiu
bn cht v tnh quy lut vn c ca chng
(mt cht) trong iu kin thi gian v khng
gian c th
Thng k hc, l khoa hc nghin cu v mt l-
ng trong mi quan h vi mt cht ca hin t-
ng kinh t-x hi s ln, trong iu kin thi
gian v a im c th.

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 5
2.2. i tng nghin cu ca tkh
L mt lng trong mi quan h mt
thit vi mt cht ca cc hin tng
kinh t x hi s ln trong iu
kin thi gian v a im c th
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 6
Hin tng kinh t -x hi m TK nghin
cu:

Hin tng v qu trnh sn xut v
ti sn xut MR ca ci vt cht.
Hin tng v dn s
Hin tng v i sng vt cht, vn
ho
Hin tng v sinh hot chnh tr-x
hi
*Lu : nh hng ca cc yu t t
nhin k thut n ht kinh t- x hi

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 7
Mt lng trong mi quan h
vi mt cht
Theo quan im ca
trit:
*Lng: L nhng c
im bn ngoi ca s
vt, hin tng, biu
hin quy m to nh,
trnh cao thp, s l-
ng t hay nhiu...
*Cht: L thuc tnh bn
trong ca s vt hin t-
ng, quy nh n l
cht g, phn bit n
vi cc cht khc
Theo quan im ca
TK:
*Lng: L s lng v
quan h s lng
biu hin quy m,
kt cu, quan h t
l, tc pht trin,
mc i biu... .
*Cht: L ni dung
kinh t- x hi m
cc ch tiu thng k
phn nh
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 8
Mi quan h gia lng v cht
Cht v Lng l hai mt khng th tch
ri. Gia chng c mi quan h bin
chng:
Cht tn ti thng qua lng, mi lng c th
u gn vi mt cht xc nh
S bin i v lng dn n s thay
i v cht: cht mi ra i cng vi lng
mi, to iu kin cho lng mi pht trin, l-
ng mi bin i ti mt mc nht
nh li ph v cht c, lm cho cht mi
ra i.
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 9
Hin tng kinh t - x hi s ln
Hin tng kinh t x hi s ln l tng th
bao gm nhiu hin tng c bit.
Thng qua vic nghin cu s ln hin tng,
tc ng ca cc nhn t ngu nhin s b b
tr, trit tiu, biu hin ca bn cht, tnh
quy lut ca hin tng mi c kh nng th
hin r
* Tuy nhin: bn cnh vic nghin cu s ln i
khi vn phi kt hp vi vic nghin cu cc
hin tng c bit, nhn thc mt cch
ton din, phong ph v su sc.
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 10
i tng nghin cu ca
thng k lun tn ti trong nhng iu kin lch
s nht nh
Trong nhng iu kin lch s khc
nhau, hin tng kinh t x hi c c
im v cht v biu hin v lng khc
nhau.
V vy, phi t s liu ca TK trong
nhng iu kin c th mi c th rt ra
kt lun chnh xc
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 11
3. C s l lun & c s phng php lun
ca TKH

3.1. C s l lun
Kinh t chnh tr Mc L nin
Ch ngha duy vt lch s
Kinh t hc (kinh t v m, kinh t vi m)
ng li chnh sch ca ng v Nh nc

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 12
3.2.C S PHNG PHP LUN CA tkh
Phng php lun l tng hp l lun cc
phng php chuyn mn ca thng k
C s phng php lun: Ch ngha duy
vt bin chng.
CNDVBC xem xt s vt hin tng trong
mi lin h rng buc v trong trng thi
vn ng.

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 13
cc giai on v cc phng php chuyn
mn ca tk
Tng hp TK
Phn tch v
d bo TK
iu tra TK
Quan st s ln,
trc tip, gin tip
Phng php phn t,
th TK
Cc phng php
Cc giai on ca
qu trnh NCTK
Pp hi quy, DSB, Ch
s
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 14
4. Mt s khI nim thng dng trong tk
Tng th thng k: L tp hp cc n
v (hay phn t) thuc hin tng nghin
cu cn quan st, thu thp v phn
tch mt lng ca chng theo mt hay
mt s tiu thc no
n v tng th: L cc n v (phn
t) cu thnh tng th thng k
Tng th mu: gm mt s n v c
chn ra t tng th chung theo mt pp
ly mu.

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 15
Mt s khI nim
Tng th ng cht: L tng th bao
gm cc n v ging nhau mt hay
mt s c im ch yu c lin quan
trc tip n mc ch nghin cu
Tng th khng ng cht: l tng
th bao gm cc n v khng ging
nhau nhng c im ch yu c
lin quan n mc ch nghin cu
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 16
Mt s khI nim
Tiu thc thng k: L khi nim dng
ch cc c im ca n v
tng th
Gm: Tiu thc thuc tnh v tiu thc
s lng
Quan st: L c s thu thp s liu
v thng tin cn nghin cu.
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 17
Mt s khI nim
Ch tiu thng k: phn nh c im
v mt lng trong s thng nht vi
mt cht ca tng th hin tng
nghin cu, trong iu kin thi gian
v khng gian c th
Ch tiu s lng: L cc ch tiu biu
hin quy m ca tng th
Ch tiu cht lng: L ch tiu biu
hin tnh cht, trnh ph bin,
quan h so snh trong tng th
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 18
Chng 6:
Hi quy v tng quan
Mi lin h gia cc hin tng kinh t
x hi
Phng php hi quy v tng quan
Lin h tng quan tuyn tnh gia hai
tiu thc
Lin h tng quan phi tuyn tnh gia
hai tiu thc

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 19
1. Mi lin h gia cc hin tng kinh t x
hi
Theo trnh ca mi lin h
gm:
Lin h hm s v lin h tng quan
Theo tnh cht ca mi lin h
gm:
Lin h tng quan thun v lin h tng
quan nghch
Theo quan im lch s gm:
Lin h khng gian v lin h thi gian
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 20
Theo trnh ca mi Lin h
Lin h hm s: L loi lin h rt cht ch
gia hai hin tng nghin cu; khi hin tng ny
thay i th ko theo s thay i ca hin t-
ng lin quan theo mt t l nht nh
Lin h tng quan: L loi lin h khng hon
ton cht ch gia cc hin tng nghin cu; khi
hin tng ny thay i th c th lm cho hin
tng c lin quan thay i theo, nhng khng c
nh hng hon ton quyt nh
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 21
Theo tnh cht ca mi Lin h
Lin h tng quan thun: Khi tr s ca
tiu thc nguyn nhn (X) v tr s ca
tiu thc kt qu (Y) cng pht trin theo
mt chiu hng
Lin h tng quan nghch: Khi tr s
ca tiu thc nguyn nhn (X) v tr s
ca tiu thc kt qu (Y) pht trin ngc
chiu nhau.
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 22
theo quan im lch s
Lin h khng gian: L s tc ng qua
li, s ph thuc vo nhau khi xt chng
cc v tr hoc a im khc nhau
Lin h v mt thi gian: L s tc
ng qua li, s ph thuc vo nhau khi
xt chng cc qu trnh, cc giai on
pht trin khc nhau

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 23
2. Phng php hi quy v tng quan
Cc bc ch yu ca phng php tng quan:
1. Xc nh tnh cht v hnh thc ca mi
lin h
2. Lp phng trnh hi qui biu din mi
lin h tng quan
3. Gii phng trnh tm cc tham s
4. nh gi trnh cht ch ca mi lin h
5. Vn dng kt qu phn tch v d bo
MLH

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 24
xc nh tnh cht v hnh thc
ca mi lin h
Da vo: c im ca hin tng nghin
cu v thng qua kho st thc t,
xem:
Hnh thc ca mi lin h: tuyn tnh (-
ng thng) hay phi tuyn tnh (ng
cong)
Tnh cht ca mi lin h: Thun hay
nghch

Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 25
Lp phng trnh biu din
mi lin h
AD : lin h TQ tuyn tnh,
thun
AD : lin h TQ tuyn tnh, nghch

AD : lin h TQ phi tuyn
tnh, nghch vi tc tng
gim khng u nhau (hy-pe-
bn)
AD : lin h TQ phi tuyn tnh
v cc tr s ca tiu thc kt
qu thay i theo cp s nhn
(phng trnh m)
2
.
x
y x xy
b
x b y a
o

=
=
Gii bng phng
php bnh phng b
nht:
V d: theo phng
trnh (1) ta c:

gii phng trnh tm
cc tham s
( )( )
( ) ( )

=
2 2
y y x x
y y x x
r
xy
nh gi trnh cht ch ca
mi lin h
Trng hp lin h tng quan tuyn tnh: Dng h
s tng quan
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 28
tnh cht ca h s
tng quan
1 1 + s s
xy
r
1 =
xy
r
Khi r (+), ta c lin h tung quan
thun. Khi r (-), ta c lin h tng
quan nghch
Gia (x) v (y) khng c lin h
no
Gia (x) v (y) c lin h hm s
Gia (x) v (y) c mi lin h
cng cht ch
1
xy
r
0 =
xy
r
( ) ( )
2
2
2
2 2
2
2
1
y
x y
y
x y y
y
yx
o
o
o
o o
o
o
n =

= =
T s tng quan
Nu lin h tng quan phi tuyn tnh, ta dng t
s tng quan:
Hong Th Hoa-BM Thng k & PTDB 30
HT CHNG 6