Alternative Energy Sources

Presented by Community Solutions Yellow Springs, Ohio www.communitysolution.org

Energy Plan A Fossil Fuel Based

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So called non renewables Business as usual Develop tar sands, oil shale, nuclear Top Priority is clean coal q (Bury CO2 in ocean and land) q CO2 from coal 2x natural gas Corporate/Government View President Bush, CEOs of Exxon, Cargill, GE, GM, BP, Ford

Alternative Non-Conventional Fossil Fuels

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Oil Shale q Does not contain oil basis is kerogen add water/ heat to get oil q Waste volume greater than ore volume must be mined like coal q Needs lots of water found in water scare areas Colorado Plateau Heavy Oil q Very thick limited uses (bunker oil) q Major source Venezuela Tar Sands q Less than 1% of world oil production q Located mostly in Canada Sizable but not huge potential Currently about 4% of energy

Alternatives Natural Gas

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Natural gas is used primarily for space heating, electricity generation Natural gas is the key ingredient in agricultural fertilizers Main material for hydrogen (natural gas 48%, oil 30%, coal 18%) Not a viable replacement for oil hard to ship a regional fuel q U.S. only imports from Canada and Mexico via pipeline One of the key solutions to the oil shock of the 1970s Can be used in automobile engines q Honda selling a natural gas Civic with home gas dispenser

Alternatives Natural Gas and Depletion

U.S. Natural Gas Production

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May deplete faster than oil plateau followed by a sharp decline Natural Gas peaked in the U.S. in 1973, in Canada in 2001 U.S. get 99% of its gas from North America
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Simmons & Co International

Alternative Coal

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Major source electricity in the world 40% of total Abundant but dirty and inefficient Less energy (1/2) per pound than oil/gas
Source: World Coal Institute

Alternative Coal

U.S. and worldwide coal production may peak between 2020 and 2030

Source: Energy Watch Group, Coal: Resources and Future Production (April, 2007)

Coal and Sequestration

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Carbon Sequestration A potential holocaust for all life Remember nuclear waste ocean dumping? Shows our desperation and our culpability

MIT Report on CCS

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Coal will remain the fuel of choice in America Clean coal programs like Future Gen fall far short of what is required to ensure coal remains a primary fuel in a carbon-constrained world

Coal and Climate Change

Paradigm shift q We dare not burn remaining oil q Nor the coal, tar sands & shale!

Alternative Nuclear
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Nuclear Energy Only new (1945) energy source in centuries U235 Relatively safe when operating No new Chernobyl or 3 Mile Island q But accidents could be catastrophic q Price-Anderson Act law in 1957 passed exempting liability n Still in force utilities wont build new plants without it Uranium will be available for some decades but not forever Fundamental issue is radioactive wastes last for thousands of years Lots of hype Fusion reactors, breeder reactors q No successes after decades of efforts $billions wasted
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Number of reactors needed to carry most of load is phenomenal q One or two orders of magnitude over current installation

Current Reactors in the World: ~450

Alternatives Dams
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Limited number of sites U.S. maxed out Major ecological effect destruction of species q In third world they destroy many homes and natural processes Dams will eventually fill with silt not renewable Forced relocation of people heavy human toll Nobody in U.S. is proposing dams!

Energy Plan B Non-Fossil Fuelbasedrenewables n So called

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Environmentally oriented Develop wind and solar q Nuclear being debated Top priority is bio-fuels q Burning of food Assumes new transportation options q Mass transit, fuel cells, PHEVs Al Gore, Lester Brown, Carl Pope, Amory Lovins, James Lovelock q Many Solar and Wind companies; many NGOs

Renewable Share

Wind and Solar make up only 0.18% of total energy use

Alternatives Wind and PVs

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Wind turbines the most efficient options and fastest growing q 2/3 of projected alternative supply is wind q Most of the rest is wood q But turbines are an old technology Photovoltaics (PVs) q PV prices decreased 90% in 1st 12 years flat in last 13. q PV efficiency went from 8% to 16% in first 10 years little improvement since Most renewables generate only electricity q Less flexible than oil or natural gas

The Law of Diminishing Returns

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
ROW Europe Japan U.S. PV Cost

1300 1100 900 700 500 300 100 -100

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Similar for wind Basic steel, aluminum, glass, silicon

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Sam Baldwin, Chief Technology Officer, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. DOE Energy: A 21st Century Perspective, National Academy of Engineering June 2, 2005, Cleveland, Ohio

Understanding Net Energy

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It takes energy to process fossil fuels for usage Cheapest energy cost to process fuels is Saudi Arabia oil Most expensive energy cost to process fuels are the nonconventional fossil fuels Also energy costly to produce bio-diesel q Negative net energy Vital to understand the concept of net energy q Explains poor prospect for many alternatives q Different than $$ cost

Biofuels Unsustainable Burning of Food n Net Energy Loser it takes 43% more energy to produce
ethanol than it yields. (Pimentel)
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Myth of oil independence q 20% of our corn in the U.S. is used for ethanol, which gives us less than 1% of total oil use. q If 100% of the corn in the U.S. was used to make ethanol, it would only account for 7% of total U.S. oil use. Would exacerbate topsoil depletion currently we are depleting the soil 20 times faster than it is being replaced Already resulting in skyrocketing food prices Cellulosic ethanol Still technical limitations, takes about five times as much energy required to make cellulosic ethanol than the energy contained in the ethanol.

Energy Plans A and B Common Points

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Fuels or new sources (A or B Technology) will save us q Plan A Clean Coal, Tar Sands q Plan B Switch Grass, Wind and Solar q Nuclear Power supported by both to some degree Lots of overlap between two e.g. GE q Biggest Wind Turbine Company q Biggest Power Plant (coal, gas, nuclear) Company Agreement Nations # 1 goal q Increase economic growth by increased energy consumption q We dont have to consume less energy just different energy q Technology is the answer

But Can Technology Save Us?

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This is a belief issue it is not at all obvious Technology = more efficient/innovative machines burning fuels q Could technology exist without fossil fuels q Will it continue when fossil fuels are gone? There are high energy and low energy technologies q Cars, planes, power plants q Bypass surgery, most drugs, better golf clubs We must consider an intermediate tech low energy world Recent energy technology breakthroughs are not impressive

Alternatives Summary
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Bio fuels, solar, wind feasibility all in question q Proponents have not yet made the case q Tabulating sun energy per sq foot is not enough Tar sands, oil shale not proven after more than 40 years Government is committing to biofuels, coal, and nuclear power Huge problem with both is poisonous waste q Sequestration is the sales pitch of the coal advocates No new fuels are likely and old fuels still dirty

Problem of Lag Time

Peaking of World Oil ProductionImpacts, Mitigation, Risk q Hirsch, Bezdek, and Wendling

Why Not Spend More on R and D?

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In a century of technologic process only one new fuel source discovered (but Uranium first discovered in 18th century) Nuclear power took decades to develop and commercialize q 1930-2003 After seventy years nuclear still provides only 8% of U.S. energy All the other fuels (oil, coal, gas, biomass) were known for a long time q Biomass (mostly wood) for thousands of years q Coal for centuries! q Oil and gas since late 1800s Early large dam was a marble structure built in 1660 in India

Energy Investment Are Sizable

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No one likes the allocation thats politics Big private investments GE $148B(rev) & Sharp $24B(rev)

The Shocking Possibility

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There may be no satisfactory alternatives q Satisfactory Maintain current energy consumption rate Eternal progress based on burning fossil fuels is not sustainable We must change to a different way of living without the dreams of eternal material and mechanical progress This may save us from ourselves q Planetary degradation based on burning fossil fuels

Conservation The Only Alternative

Sustainable conservation efforts are imperative!

Plan C Conserving in Community

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A view of only using enough q Conserving, Sharing & Saving q vs. q Competing, Hoarding & Consuming Means Curtailment Cutting back q Not token conservation q Sharing resources now and with people in the future Needs Community q Context for a new Way of Life q Cooperation Principle