You are on page 1of 17

Long Term Financial Planning

Lecture 6

What is Financial Planning?

Short Term
Firm has enough cash to pay bills Short borrowing and lending are arranged

Long Term
Investment need to meet the long term goals. Finance that must be raised.

Why Build Financial Plans?

Contingency Plans Considering Options

Opportunities for the company to exploit its existing strength by moving into a wholly new area. Planners draw out the connections between the firms plans for growth and the financing requirements.

Forcing Consistency

Financial Planning Model Ingredients


Sales Forecast many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimated using sales growth rate) Pro Forma Statements setting up the plan using projected financial statements allows for consistency and ease of interpretation Asset Requirements the additional assets that will be required to meet sales projections Financial Requirements the amount of financing needed to pay for the required assets Plug Variable determined by management deciding what type of financing will be used to make the balance sheet balance Economic Assumptions explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment
4-4

Example: Historical Financial Statements


Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Balance Sheet December 31, 2009 Assets 1000 Debt Equity Total 1000 Total 400 Revenues 600 Less: costs 2000 (1600) 400 Gourmet Coffee Inc. Income Statement For Year Ended December 31, 2009

1000 Net Income

4-5

Example: Pro Forma Income Statement

Initial Assumptions

Gourmet Coffee Inc. Pro Forma Income Statement For Year Ended 2010 Revenues 2,300

Revenues will grow at 15% (2,000*1.15) All items are tied directly to sales, and the current relationships are optimal Consequently, all other items will also grow at 15%

Less: costs

(1,840)

Net Income

460

4-6

Example: Pro Forma Balance Sheet

Case I

Gourmet Coffee Inc. Pro Forma Balance Sheet Case 1 Assets Total 1,150 Debt Equity 1,150 Total Gourmet Coffee Inc. Pro Forma Balance Sheet Case 2 1,150 Debt Equity Total 1,150 Total 460 690 1,150

Dividends are the plug variable, so equity increases at 15% Dividends = 460 (NI) 370 (increase in equity) = 90 dividends paid
Debt is the plug variable and no dividends are paid Debt = 1,150 (600+460) = 90 Repay 400 90 = 310 in debt

Case II

Assets

90 1,060 1,150
4-7

Percentage of Sales Approach


Some items vary directly with sales, while others do not Income Statement Costs may vary directly with sales - if this is the case, then the profit margin is constant Depreciation and interest expense may not vary directly with sales if this is the case, then the profit margin is not constant Dividends are a management decision and generally do not vary directly with sales this influences additions to retained earnings Balance Sheet Initially assume all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales Accounts payable will also normally vary directly with sales Notes payable, long-term debt and equity generally do not vary directly with sales because they depend on management decisions about capital structure The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision 4-8

Example: Income Statement


Tashas Toy Emporium Income Statement, 2009 Tashas Toy Emporium Pro Forma Income Statement, 2010 Sales Less: costs 60% 40% 16% EBT Less: taxes Net Income Dividends 1,200 600 24% Add. To RE 5,500 (3,300) 2,200 (880) 1,320 660 660

% of Sales
Sales Less: costs EBT Less: taxes (40% of EBT) Net Income Dividends 5,000 (3,000) 2,000 (800)

Add. To RE

600

Assume Sales grow at 10% Dividend Payout Rate = 50%


4-9

Tashas Toy Emporium Balance Sheet Current % of Pro Current Sales Forma
ASSETS Current Assets

Example: Balance Sheet


% of Sales Pro Forma Liabilities & Owners Equity Current Liabilities

Cash
A/R Inventory Total Fixed Assets Net PP&E Total Assets

$500
2,000 3,000 5,500 4,000 9,500

10%
40 60 110 80 190

$550 A/P
2,200 N/P 3,300 Total Owners Equity 4,400 10,450 CS & APIC RE Total Total L & OE 6,050 LT Debt

$900
2,500 3,400 2,000 2,000 2,100 4,100 9,500

18%
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

$990
2,500 3,490 2,000 2,000 2,760 4,760 10,250
4-10

Example: External Financing Needed

The firm needs to come up with an additional $200 in debt or equity to make the balance sheet balance

TA TL&OE = 10,450 10,250 = 200 Borrow more short-term (Notes Payable) Borrow more long-term (LT Debt) Sell more common stock (CS & APIC) Decrease dividend payout, which increases the Additions To Retained Earnings
4-11

Choose plug variable ($200 EFN)


Example: Operating at Less than Full Capacity

Suppose that the company is currently operating at 80% capacity. Full Capacity sales = 5000 / .8 = 6,250 Estimated sales = $5,500, so we would still only be operating at 88% Therefore, no additional fixed assets would be required. Pro forma Total Assets = 6,050 + 4,000 = 10,050 Total Liabilities and Owners Equity = 10,250 Choose plug variable (for $200 EXCESS financing) Repay some short-term debt (decrease Notes Payable) Repay some long-term debt (decrease LT Debt) Buy back stock (decrease CS & APIC) Pay more in dividends (reduce Additions To Retained Earnings) Increase cash account

4-12

Growth and External Financing

At low growth levels, internal financing (retained earnings) may exceed the required investment in assets As the growth rate increases, the internal financing will not be enough, and the firm will have to go to the capital markets for money Examining the relationship between growth and external financing required is a useful tool in long-range planning

4-13

The Internal Growth Rate

The internal growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow assets using retained earnings as the only source of financing. Using the information from Tashas Toy Emporium

ROA = 1200 / 9500 = .1263 b = .5 G=ROA*b/(1-ROA*b)

4-14

The Sustainable Growth Rate

The sustainable growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow by using internally generated funds and issuing debt to maintain a constant debt ratio. Using Tashas Toy Emporium

ROE = 1200 / 4100 = .2927 b = .5 G=b*ROE/(1-b*ROE)

4-15

Comprehensive Problem

XYZ has the following financial information for 2009: Sales = $2M, Net Inc. = $0.4M, Div. = $0.1M C.A. = $0.4M, F.A. = $3.6M C.L. = $0.2M, LTD = $1M, C.S. = $2M, R.E. = $0.8M What is the sustainable growth rate?

ROE = .4/2.8 = .1429, b = (.4 - .1)/.4 = .75, g = 12%

If 2010 sales are projected to be $2.4M, what is the amount of external financing needed, assuming XYZ is operating at full capacity, and profit margin and payout ratio remain constant?

4-16

End of Chapter

4-17

You might also like