Ganges Basin Development Challenge

Activities, Outputs and Future Plan

Outcome Logic Model

Project outputs
Existing condition: Detailed map of polders & land type, Data, Freshwater & salinity zoning map Water-logging map inside the polders Digital Elevation Model External drivers Scenarios Future condition: Outcome Logic Model Population projection Land use change Detailed map of polders & land type, Data, Freshwater & salinity zoning map Water-logging map inside the polders Improved water infrastructure plan of the three polders

OUTCOMES Change in KAS Change in Practice/ behavior

Farmers and fishers of polder 3, 30 and 43/2F Awareness building Knowledge enhancement Encouraged to participate in discussions

Ministries of water resources, environment & forests, agriculture and fisheries in Bangladesh Scaling up Understanding of the effects of external drivers & anticipated change of water resources and the benefits of adaptation measures will encourage these policymakers to be motivated to formulate new policies. It will also enable them for advocacy to the development partners.

Impact

Researchers of G1, G2, G3 & other ongoing projects Use of data, information & Use of data & knowledge information Understanding external drivers, scenarios and their effects Development of new database

Improved and resilient water infrastructure and operation Improved Polder management for maximizing crop & fish production and minimizing inundation risk due to flood in collaboration with other Gs

LGI, BWDB, WARPO, LGED and NGOs Acquiring new information & knowledge Understanding the benefits of using new information and improved plan for proper drainage and irrigation Improved planning, design and implementation of water infrastructure

Ministry of Water Resources, C.C. Cell, Planning Commission Understanding of effects of Assimilation of new external drivers knowledge and information in project Motivated and encouraged planning and approval to use the new information

Overall Methodology
G4: Assessment of the impact of anticipated external drivers of change on water resources of the coastal zone

Defining Study Area

Literature Review

Field Survey and Data Collection

Water Flow and Salinity Modelling Model Development Calibration Validation

Selection of Drivers of Change Involving Gs and other Stakeholders

Simulation of Baseline Condition

Selection of Scenarios Involving Gs and Stakeholders

Simulation of Scenarios

Improved drainage and storage plan

Up-scaling to LGED, WARPO, BWDB, DoE, Climate Change Cell Involving G5

External Drivers

External Drivers and Future Scenarios

Scenario Generation Workshop

Final List of Key External Drivers and Their Ranking

Combination

Scenarios

Scenarios
Trans-boundary flow (best case scenario: maximum flow since GWT)

Population growth: water extraction from the river system Land-use change Ganges Basin Climate change: A1B condition (Precipitation, Temperature and Sea level rise)

Scenario 1: 2030

Scenarios
Trans-boundary flow (worst case scenario: minimum flow since GWT)

Population growth: water extraction from the river system

Land-use change Ganges Basin Climate change: A1B condition (Precipitation, Temperature and Sea level rise)

Scenario 2: 2030

Scenario
Trans-boundary flow (best case scenario: maximum flow since GWT

Population growth: water extraction from the river system

Change in water management practices

Land-use change

Water infrastructure development (khal system/structure improvement, Ganges Barrage)

Ganges Basin Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change) Climate change: A1B condition (Precipitation, Temperature and Sea level rise)

Scenario 3: 2030

Scenario
Trans-boundary flow (best case scenario: maximum flow since GWT Mimimum TBF Maximum TBF

Land-use change

Ganges Basin Climate change: A1B and A2 condition (Precipitation, Temperature and Sea level rise)

Scenario 4: 2030 and 2050

Salinity Zoning Map

Salinity Zoning Map

Simulation of Scenarios and Effect of External Drivers Farhana Akhter Kamal

POLDER-3

POLDER-30

POLDER-43/2f

Salinity Modelling
Methodology
South-West Regional Salinity Model

Boundary Generation
Measured Q Sal 0 ppt

Measured Q Sal 0 ppt

Measured Q Sal 0 ppt

2 Dimensional Model (Bay of Bengal Model) Measured salinity at upstream boundaries Sea Salinity = 30 to 35 ppt

Sal
1 Dimensional Model South-West Regional Model salinity is zero at upstream Downstream salinity is taken from calibrated BoB model

Sal

Sal

Sal

WL, Salinity in 12 downstream boundaries

Salinity = 32 ppt
Salinity boundary

Salinity intrusion and water availability in Base Condition

December 2011

Salinity intrusion and water availability in Base Condition

January 2012

Salinity intrusion and water availability in Base Condition

February 2012

Salinity intrusion and water availability in Base Condition

March 2012

Salinity intrusion and water availability in Base Condition

April 2012

Salinity intrusion and water availability in Base Condition

May 2012

Salinity intrusion and water availability in Base Condition

June 2012

Sea Level Rise in Southwest Region

Relative Mean Sea Level (RMSL) = Global SLR + Local Effect
Projection of SLR from 1990-2100,based on IPCC temperature projections for three different emission scenarios(Rahmstrof,2009)
Rahmstorf (2009) prediction for Global SLR is 124cm, A1B in 2100 over 1990 water level Local effect (from past studies and WL trend analysis) is about 5mm/yr

Considering Global and local effects the SLR is 22cm in 2030 and 52cm in 2050 above 20112012 WL Temperature ranges and associated sea-level ranges by the year 2100 for IPCC emission scenarios

Trans-boundary flow

AnnualDaily Minimum Flow (m3/s) Hardinge Bridge (Ganges River)

2500
2000 1500 1000 500 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Hardinge bridge in dry season

Daily minimum flow in the Ganges at Hardinge Bridge: Average was 1920m3/s in Pre-Farakka period Decreased to less than 500m3/s during Post-Farakka The mean Increased to 730m3/s after the Ganges Water Treaty

Trans-boundary flow
Monthly maximum and minimum flow since 1998

Incorporating Drivers
(Transboundary flow + Climate change (change in
temperature and precipitation) +

Upstream Boundaries (Q, Sal = 0pt) Minimum and maximum flow in Gorai in dredged condition

Sea Level Rise

Rainfall + R Evaporation (based on temperature change)

Downstream Boundaries (WL, Sal) + Sea Level Rise

Effect of External Drivers on Drainage Conditions (Md Nasim Al Azad Khan)

Cross-section Survey
Cross-section of Moradaha Khal
3

Level (mPWD)

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

Distance (m)

Cross-section of Bazar Khal

3.5 3.0

Level (mPWD)

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Distance (m)

Kazibacha river

Digital Elevation Model

0 4 3.5 20 Area (Percent) 40 60 80 100

Area-Elevation curve

Average water level 1.3 m

Land level (mPWD)

3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Lower-Shalta river

10

20

30
Area (sqkm)

40

50

60

Level (mPWD) Area below % 0.60 1.00 1.20 1.60 1.80 2.00 15 61 80 95 98 99

Average water level 1.0 m

Internal Road Network of Polder-30

Existing drainage system of Polder-30 78 Khals 15 Drainage Regulator (5 nos. 2vent, 10 nos. 1-vent)

Delineation of catchments for internal khal network using Digital Elevation model, Road networks and Khals

Total 54 no. of Catchments

Rainfall

Water level hydrograph at Khals

Water depth hydrograph at flood plain

Average Flood Event 1 day inundation depth

Flood type Flood free F0 (0 - 30 cm) F1 (30 - 90 cm) F2 (90 - 180 cm) Area (sqkm) Area (%) 30.20 47 23.62 37 9.46 15 1.24 2

Average Flood Event 3 day inundation depth

Flood type Flood free F0 (0 - 30 cm) F1 (30 - 90 cm) Area (sqkm) 54.85 4.45 5.20 Area (%) 85 7 8

Average Flood Event 7 day inundation depth

Flood type Flood free F0 (0 - 30 cm) F1 (30 - 90 cm) Area (sqkm) Area (%) 58.58 91 4.57 7 1.36 2

25 Year Flood Event 1 day inundation depth

Flood type Flood Free F0 (0 - 30 cm) F1 (30 - 90 cm) F2 (90 - 180 cm) Area (sqkm) % of Area 10.44 16 15.01 23 30.90 48 7.895 12

25 Year Flood Event 3 day inundation depth

Flood type Flood Free F0 (0 - 30 cm) F1 (30 - 90 cm) F2 (90 - 180 cm) Area (sqkm) % of Area 25.48 40 21.01 33 13.42 21 4.32 7

25 Year Flood Event 7 day inundation depth

Flood type Flood Free F0 (0 - 30 cm) F1 (30 - 90 cm) Area (sqkm) % of Area 45.55 71 9.81 15 8.57 13

Ganges, Brammaputra and Meghna Basin

Bangladesh rivers receive runoff from a catchment of 1.72 million sq. km, around 12 times its land area
Brahmaputra Basin 552,000 sq.km

CHINA INDIA Ganges Basin 1,087,000 sq.km INDIA BHUTAN

BANGLADESH Meghna Basin 82,000 sq.km BAY O F BE N GAL

Upstream Boundaries: Flows in climate change scenario

Rainfall +

Evaporation (based on temperature change)

Precipitation at Polder Rainfall + R Evaporation (based on temperature change)

Downstream Boundaries: Sea Level Rise

25 Year Flood Event (Scenario_2030) 1 day inundation depth

Flood type Flood Free F0 (0 - 30 cm) F1 (30 - 90 cm) F2 (90 - 180 cm) Area (sqkm) % of Area 9.18 14 12.00 19 33.61 52 9.72 15

25 Year Flood Event (Scenario_2030) 3 day inundation depth

Flood type Flood Free F0 (0 - 30 cm) F1 (30 - 90 cm) F2 (90 - 180 cm) Area (sqkm) % of Area 21.97 34 22.24 34 15.26 24 5.03 8

25 Year Flood Event (Scenario_2030) 7 day inundation depth

Flood type Flood Free F0 (0 - 30 cm) F1 (30 - 90 cm) F2 (90 - 180 cm) Area (sqkm) % of Area 41.71 65 13.01 20 9.15 14 0.64 1

Drainage improvement plan

Improvement Plan-1

Re-excavation of Jhapjhapia river and khals of most water logged areas in the western part of the Polder

Upgrading the Milemara regulator from 1-vent to 2-vent

Improvement Plan-2

Re-excavation of Jhapjhapia river and khals of most water logged areas in the western part of the Polder + Additional regulating structure

One 2-vent Regulator at Tegodanga khal

25 Year Flood Event (Scenario_2030) 3 day inundation depth 25 Year Flood Event (Scenario_2030) 3 day inundation depth With improvement plan-1

25 Year Flood Event (Scenario_2030) 3 day inundation depth With improvement plan-2

Present condition Plan-1 Plan-2 Area (sqkm) % of Area Area (sqkm) Area (%) Area (sqkm) Area (%) Flood free 22 34 35 54 42 65 F0 (0 - 30 cm) 22 34 20 31 16 25 F1 (30 - 90 cm) 15 24 9 14 6 10 F2 (90 - 180 cm) 5 8 1 1 0 0 Flood type

Population and Land use Projections (Dr. Muthuwatta Lal, IWMI)

SWAT modeling for Ganges River Basin

Lal Muthuwatta, Aditya Sood, Upali Amarasinghe and Bharat Sharma (IWMI)

Introduction
The aim of the study is to quantify the impacts of various external drivers on the stream flow of Ganges. To accomplish this, a hydrological model is developed to simulate stream flow at various locations in the Ganga River Basin, This model will then be used to analyze the impacts of anticipated external drivers on stream flow of the GRB.

Specific objectives
Collect and document baseline data to develop a hydrological model for the Ganges River Basin. Develop a hydrological model of the Ganga River Basin to simulate stream flow. Asses the hydrologic implications of various future scenarios.

Data
Number of precipitation stations 784 ( 1979 2010)

Number of temperature stations - 784

Number of stations for solar radiation, wind speed and humidity - 266 Land use ( Satellite based classified map)

Soil data ( FAO soil map)

DEM ( SRTM)

Climatic data is collected from different sources such as IWMI water data portal, IMD gridded data and Bdesh met. Department, re-analysis data.

SWAT Sub-basins G4

Number of sub-basins - 1685 Average size 527 km2

Flow (m3 s-1) 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 90000

80000

0 Jan-81 Sep-81 May-82 Jan-83 Sep-83 May-84 Jan-85 Sep-85 May-86 Jan-87 Sep-87 May-88 Jan-89 Sep-89 Month May-90 Jan-91 Sep-91 May-92 Observed Simulated

Obs. vs. Sim. at the Harding Bridge.

R2 0.7 0.75 Val (1991-2000) 0.73 0.81 Cal ( 1981-1990)

Jan-93
Sep-93 May-94 Jan-95 Sep-95 May-96 Jan-97 Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99

NS

Water yield (mm/year)

Annual water balance components

2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 mm 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Precipitation Year ETa Water yield

Rainfall - 609 to 1796 mm/y Water yield - 250 to 1300 mm/y

WB Terms Surface runoff GW recharge ( Shallow) Deep Aq. Recharge Actual ET

mm/year 483.3 254.6 13.8 385.8

Population projections and domestic water demand

Domestic water demand of the part of Ganges river basin in Bangladesh for the years 2030 and, 2050.

Data from population census in 1991, 2001 and 2011 at Zila

level

Population projections for 2030 and 2050 by UN

Population - 2001

Procedure
=
1 2

,2011+ = 2011+ ,2001+10 ,2011+ = 2011+ ,2001+10 ,2001+10

-1 Growth rate

C is chosen as:

2011+ =
=1 +

,2011+ =
=1

,2011 1 + ,2011+

2011 and ,2001+10 the annual population growth of the country

and the ith sub-national unit after 2011

Rural and urban population (1000s)

Subbasin 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Population 2001 Population 2011 Population 2030 Population 2050 Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural 349 1786 427 1947 441 2013 441 2013 874 3305 897 3672 916 3757 916 3758 548 3259 592 3589 608 3701 608 3702 821 1735 560 2044 561 2057 561 2057 194 956 204 964 204 964 204 964 134 509 113 548 113 551 113 551 207 1491 241 1581 254 1669 254 1670 179 1265 190 1288 435 3048 435 3049 73 633 119 612 169 971 169 971 59 641 160 596 160 596 160 596 80 506 101 470 115 480 115 480 118 1329 300 1277 302 1292 302 1292 131 878 153 577 323 707 323 707 127 1015 155 682 366 845 366 845 145 1185 180 1164 197 1289 197 1289 4037 20494 4392 21011 5166 23940 5167 23944

Urban 2001-2011 2011-2030 2030-2050 8.8% 17.6% 0.02%

Rural 2.5% 13.9% 0.02%

Water demand by the population in different sub-basins (million cubic meters)

Subbasin 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Water demand 2001 Urban Rural 19 54 48 100 30 99 45 53 11 29 7 15 11 45 10 38 4 19 3 19 4 15 6 40 7 27 7 31 8 36 221 621 Water demand 2011 Urban Rural 23 59 49 111 32 109 31 62 11 29 6 17 13 48 10 39 7 19 9 18 6 14 16 39 8 17 8 21 10 35 240 637 Water demand 2030 Urban Rural 24 61 50 114 33 112 31 62 11 29 6 17 14 51 24 92 9 29 9 18 6 15 17 39 18 21 20 26 11 39 283 725 Water demand 2050 Urban Rural 24 61 50 114 33 112 31 62 11 29 6 17 14 51 24 92 9 29 9 18 6 15 17 39 18 21 20 26 11 39 283 725 Rural Urban 83 lpd 150 lpd

The domestic water demand in the Ganges Basin of Bangladesh is projected to increase by roughly 15% till 2030 and will then stabilize.

Refrences
Al-Amin M., Mahmud, K., Hosen H., Islam M.A. (2011). Domestic water

consumption patterns in a village in Bangladesh. 4th Annual Paper Meet and

1st Civil Engineering Congress, December 22-24, 2011, Dhaka, Bangladesh ISBN: 978-984-33-4363-5 Noor, Amin, Bhuiyan, Chowdhury and Kakoli (eds).

Ganges barrage study project, Feasibility report, 2012.

Projecting Land Cover of Bangladesh

Uses the aggregated statistics in a first order Markov Chain model to project future LC. First order Markov Chain treats that LC classes behavior as a stochastic variable (Y), and that the state in the current time period depends only on the states, 1 , j=1,..,J, of the previous time period.

Procedure
probabilistic terms this can be expressed as

/1

=1 P ( ) and P (1 ) are probabilities that Y is in state i in tth time period, and state j in (t-1)st time period.
P (Yt(i)| Yt-1(j))= Pij is the conditional probability that Y is in state i in tth time period given that Y is in state j in (t-1)th time period.

Transition probability matrix

11 21 = . . 1 12 22 . . 2 . . 1 2 . . . . .

Pij Transition probability from state j to i from (t-1) to tth time period.

Transition Probability Matrix for LULC of Bangladesh

2010
LULC Forest Fallow lands 0.00 0.64 0.00 Waste lands 0.00 0.06 0.60 Not available for agriculture 0.00 0.13 0.40 Single cropped 0.02 0.13 0.00 Double cropped 0.24 0.00 0.00 Triple cropped 0.00 0.06 0.00

Forest Fallow lands Waste lands

0.74 0.00 0.00

2002

Not available for agriculture 0.05 Single cropped Double cropped Triple cropped Steady state probabilities 0.15 0.03 0.03 0.26 0.19 027 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.10 0.83 0.04 0.11 0.06 0.00

0.10
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.20
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.58
0.72

0.12
0.28

Next step..
To run the scenarios of climate change, population increase and land use change. Climate change will have impact on both the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall.

Increasing population will lead to increasing demand of

water abstraction from the basin. It will also lead to landuse change. The influence of such changes on the water yield and flow of the river will be quantified.

Work Plan 2013 List of Working Papers

Spatial and temporal variation of water flow and salinity in the coastal zone of the Ganges delta Downscaling of GCM and climate change projections Identification and prioritization of external drivers of change Future scenarios of external drivers of change Water flow, drainage and salinity modelling techniques Projection on Population growth and water requirement in 2030 and 2050 Projection on land use in the coastal zone of Ganges in Bangladesh Effects of external drivers on water resources and salinity intrusion Implication of adaptation measures on drainage Projection on land-use change and assessment of water requirement for the Coastal Zone of Ganges in Bangladesh Atlas of Salinity zoning map Atlas of inundation depth map

Work Plan 2013

No. 0 1 2 3 4 5

Activity- Milestone Project Implementation Field visits, interaction meetings, data collection, literature review, driver identification, workshop Assessment of climate scenarios and projections Assessment of cross-boundary flow, effect of land-use change and population growth Simulation of scenarios and assessment of anticipated changes on water resources Simulation of scenarios and assessment of anticipated changes for the selected polders (3, 31 & 43-2F)

Expected Completion Date 30/03/2014 31/12/2013 Completed 30/04/2013 30/06/2013 30/06/2013

Future Research Questions

1. Assessment of water quality and availability in the drainage channel over the year in the coastal polders 2. Improved operation rules for drainage and irrigation management of polders involving local community 3. Establishment of sea level rise along the coast of Bangladesh for different emission scenarios considering local and global effects 4. Dynamic downscaling of GCMs for better climate change projections for high emission scenarios in the coastal polders 5. Assessment of future sedimentation and drainage condition in the peripheral rivers and adaptation strategies for better drainage management of polders 6. Long term monitoring of sea level rise and salinity in the coastal area 7. Modelling of change of water management practices 8. Improved planning of gravity irrigation system at low saline zone 9. Planning Sarjan system in the low lying coastal area for climate resilient aquaculture and agriculture at community level

THANK YOU