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QUALITATIVE METHODS
Qualitative forecasting is relevent to social science, known as inexact science. Reasoning is informal. Attributes are not measurable exactly. Mathematical derivatives are rarely used. Predictions not made with great precision. Forecasting should be accepted on weaker evidence than explanation. Experts should be motivated to use their background knowledge. Forecase expert is one who is rational, large background knowledge, and whose forecasts show record of comparative successes in the long run.
Forecast experts should be able to. Sketch out general direction of future development. Anticipate major junctures on which course of developments will hinge. Make contingency forecasts with respect to alternatives associated with them. So forecasting very far has to be subjective based on power of experts. Three important approaches to forecasting events. 1. Judgemental forecasting 2. Delphi technique. 3. Cross-impact analysis.
JUDGEMENTAL FORECASTING. Methods in which the process used to analyse the data is not well specified. objective data or subjective impressions as inputs , may be supported by formal analysis, the inputs are translated into forecast in the human mind. Various methods of JF 1. Personal interview, 2. Telephone interview 3. Traditional meetings. 4. Structured meetings 5. Role playing 6. Mail questionaire 7. Delphi 8. Cross impact theory 9. System dynamics.
ERRORS in JUDGEMENTAL FORECASTING. 1. Bias. Caused by preconceived notion about the world. Judgement of person who stands to lose or gain from the forecast. Most of the time judge says hope to happen, rather than what they think to happen. Optimism is one form of bias. 2. Anchoring. Tendency to start with an answer while making forecast. Conservative judge used the past as anchor for future for making forecast.
DELPHI TECHNIQUE.
Named after place Delphi in ancient greece. Type of opinion capture forecasting technique. 1. It is a structured communication process, so that the process is effective is allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with complex process ( Linstone and turnoff view). 2. Subjective method relying on opinion of a few experts. 3. Panel of experts is constituted to tackle problem of forecasting. Experts may be from inside or outside, but each being expert in some aspect of the problem. 4. The efforts of the panel members are co-ordinated by an impartial leader known as co-ordinator. 5. Problems can be anything like technological, economical or social.
6. co-ordinator prepares a questionaire in writing and sends to each expert in panel. 7. Each expert makes independent predictions n not knowing what others are predicting. 8. Co-ordinator brings the written prediction from all experts, edits and summarizes them. 9. On basis of summary, the co-ordinator writes a new sets of questions and gives back to expert ( second round). 10. again co-ordinator edits, summarizes the answers and repeat the whole process till the coordinator is satisfied with the overall process arrived by the experts. 11.A iterative procedure in which revision are carried out by the experts till the co-ordinator gets a stable response.
Advantages of delphi.
Undue dominant or eloquent personalities absent. No need to contradict prestigious personalities publicly. One can change views as anonymity is preserved. Individuals can fill the questions at convenience. Relatively cheap to administer. No geographic and scheduling restrictions to get participants together. Evolve consensus through group exercise. Encourages innovative thinking hence capable of ill structured problems. Overall climate of organisation changes with collective involvement. Two way communication. Flexible and applicable to many situations.
Disadvantages of delphi
Inability to make delphi objectives specific. Inability to identify and motivate many informed individuals to participate. Inability to appreciate and highlight consensus and divergence. High cost on communication of ideas, i.e. written feedback editing, distribution of questionaire. Time consuming iterations. Panelists often give inconsistent views.
Variants of Delphi.
1. Talk estimate comprises interaction group committee or panel. 2. EFE Estimate feedback Estimate. 3. Estimate Talk Estimate ( Nominal group technique. Participants generate idea in private. Engage in round robin meeting and each offers idea in time. Discussion allowed after wards. Groups final answer on voting. Used for generation and capture of ideas rather than for estimation of prescribed quantities.
4. EFTE ( Estimate feedback talk estimate) by Nelms and porter. Participants assembled face to face and given back ground information. No discussion at this stage. Questionnaire given and after completing return to delphi leader. Results summarised and displayed before the group and answers ranked from high,medium to low. Feedback on results discussed among the participants. Name of the person who made particular response not disclosed. Second round conducted. Index card given for anonymous questions and comments. Terminates on stability.
KSIM model
KSIM, a simulation technique developed by Julius kane, was based on expected interactions between timeseries variables rather than events. Other steps similar as in CIA Like identify fundamendal problem elements Determine appropriate scale independently Determine cross- impact relationships. DETERMINE TIME RESPONSE by computer simulation Iterate steps till the group accepts the model as appropriate. Apply the desired policies.
the workings of cross-impact analysis available to a much larger audience in that no technical sophistication is required to become expressive in the new language. Unlike the procedures developed by Gordon, KSIM methods stress the structural dynamics of the system, the geometry of the linkages rather than refining arithmetic estimates of future probabilities. However, while qualitatively and subjectively oriented, an be easily expanded to any degree of precision, providing the data and mechanisms are sufficiently well known. The key feature of our approach is that it allows one to work with data of any level-from subjective estimates to highly precise physical measurements-and the computer has the character of logical projections of basic hypothesis rather than dogmatic imperatives which is the nature of much of present social, economic, technological, and ecological modelling.
CONTROLLING THE SYSTEM. Production control. Inventory control Labor control Cost control.
CONTROLLING THE SYSTEM. Production control. Inventory control Labor control Cost control.
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