Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS

UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop

Assessing Costs and Benefits of Adaptation: Methods and Data

March 11-14, 2013

Dr. Dilip K. Gautam RIMES, AIT Campus, Bangkok

Hydrological Model
A model is a simplified representation of reality.
A mathematical model consists of series of equations defining the system

we are dealing with. The function of model is to convert the given input into an output.
A hydrological model is the mathematical representation of the response

of a catchment system to hydrologic events during the time period under consideration.
Hydrological phenomena are extremely complex, highly non-linear and

highly variable in space and time.

A model is needed to predict the watershed runoff for the design and

management of water resources utilization and flood control projects.

Classification of Hydrological Models

Hydrological Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment

Simulated flow peaks, volumes and hydrographs at the outlets of subbasins and the points of special interest such as reservoirs, weirs or other hydraulic structures
Simulated long flow sequences for water budget and drought analyses Simulated extent of flooded areas for different precipitation events and various antecedent basin conditions

Hydrologic processes that need to be captured by the model

Single-event precipitation-runoff transformation
Continuous precipitation-runoff transformation Snow accumulation and melt

Interception, infiltration, soil moisture accounting

Evapotranspiration Regulated reservoir operation

HEC-HMS
US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering

Centers Hydrologic Modeling System software runoff process

Designed to simulate both single event and continuous rainfall-

Simulates precipitation-runoff and routing processes, both

natural and controlled

HEC-HMS uses a separate model to represent each

component of the runoff process including: runoff volume; direct runoff (overland flow and interflow); baseflow; channel routing.

HEC-HMS representation of watershed runoff

Key Components of Model

Runoff Volume models: separate infiltration from

pervious surface, runoff from impervious surface, compute the direct runoff volume Direct Runoff models: transform direct runoff volume from excess precipitation into fast component of flow Base Flow models: compute slow subsurface drainage component Routing models: compute flow attenuation and translation over channel Reservoir models: flow regulation

Data Required
Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use, soil types and other physiographic data Precipitation, temperature data Evaporation/evapotranspiration data Discharge, Water level and Rating curve data Channel and reservoir hydraulic data Generated sequence of meteorological data representing various scenarios of future climate

Upper Chao Phraya Basin, Thailand Catchment Area = 105553 sq. km.

Dams and Reservoirs

Bhumibol dam in the Ping River (Storage 13462 MCM)
Sirikit dam in the Nan River (Storage 9510 MCM) Kwae Noi dam in Kwae Noi River (Storage 766 MCM) Kiew Kor Mha dam in Wang River (Storage 171 MCM) Kiew Lom dam in Wang River (Storage 112 MCM)

Data preparation using HEC-GeoHMS

Delineate catchment and river network
Obtain catchment characteristics data (area, slope etc) Make Thiessen polygon Obtain Thiessen weights Prepare basin file

Data preparation using HEC-DSSVue

Time series data (rainfall, discharge etc.)
Pair data (elevation-storage)

Model Setup
Basin model
Meteorological model Time series data Pair data Control specification

Meteorologic model
Precipitation
Evapotranspiration Snowmelt : not applicable for upper Chao Phraya

Precipitation methods
Gauge weights : selected for upper Chao Phraya
Inverse distance Gridded precipitation Frequency storm SCS storm Specified Hyetograph Standard project storm

Evapotranspiration methods
Monthly Average : selected for upper Chao Phraya
Priestley-Taylor Gridded Priestley-Taylor

Snowmelt methods
Gridded temperature index
Temperature index

Control Specifications
Simulation start date/time
Simulation end date/time Time interval

Model Calibration
Finding optimal parameter values Minimizing difference between simulated flow

and observed flow Objective functions

Peak weighted RMS error

Percent error peak

Percent error volume RMS log error Sum of absolute residuals Sum of squared residuals Time weighted error

Search Algorithms
Nelder Mead Univariate Gradient

The Basin Model

Simulated Hydrograph at Basin Outlet

R2 = 0.71 BIAS = 6.7 % NS = 0.71

Conclusions
Semi-distributed physically based deterministic

hydrological models are powerful tools for assessing climate change impact on water resources. Continuous modeling approach could be taken to assess the impact on flow volume. Care should be taken to interpret the results as there are lots of uncertainties in the model inputs, parameters and structure of the model. Uncertainties associated with climate models will also be carried over.

Thank You !
Dr. Dilip K. Gautam, Senior Hydrologist, RIMES E-mail: dilip.gautam@rimes.int Website: www.rimes.int