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Demand Management and Planning -the business perspective By K . Sashi Rao Management Teacher and Trainer
products and services for those markets and then fulfilling these customer demands
It is an integrative set of business processes,
across, not just the enterprise, but across all its trading partner network ( both customers and suppliers)
post-sales services
M anagi ng D em and
Thro capacity reservation by shifting excess demand to
a future period without losing it by doing advance booking or appointments for future times
demands( higher prices e.g. movie tickets) or build demand in off-season by lowering prices/special discounts) demand patterns at different times( lower telecom rates for night use) demand products e.g. woolen and cotton garments; winter creams and suntan lotions; lawn mowers and snow ploughs
M anagi ng Suppl y
Thro inventory based alternatives by building excess
inventory during periods of lean demand and consuming them during peak demand times; or by shifting production to a future period beyond demand period; or deliberately inducing stock-outs leaving customers to wait longer; final choice depends on required customer service levels of workers; working extra hours and shifts; use of part time workers and/or subcontracting, rescheduling maintenance programs and by debottlenecking projects
Thro capacity adjustment alternatives by hiring/laying Thro capacity augmentation means by outsourcing
Some basic strategies to help make a choice are: Level strategy not to disturb existing production system at
all; maintain a steady rate of regular time output while meeting demand variations largely thro inventories
carry inventories; planned output for a period is set at expected demand for that period( with lead-times built in e.g. Jan production for Feb needs); capacity related alternatives ( discussed earlier) used flexibly approaches
Managing demand
Planning & scheduling costs Marketing oriented costs Inventory holding costs Shortage/loss of goodwill Overtime costs, Loss of productivity Shift change costs Training/hiring costs, employee morale Transaction costs Investment, debottlenecking costs
Managing supply
Build inventory Backlog/backorder/ stock-out Overtime/under-time Varying shifts Hiring/layoff workers Subcontract/outsource Debottlenecking/adding new capacity
customers) to develop demand forecasts and inputs to feed various planning processes, production, inventory planning, procurement planning and revenue planning
Based on estimated product demand, a firm can plan for
management process
accuracy of revenue forecasts, align inventory levels in line with demand changes and enhance product-wise/channel-wise profitability
Its purpose can be seen as to drive the supply
takes a special meaning requiring integration of point-of-sale information to flow back to the manufacturer
Besides getting such customer level demand
data thro distribution channel partners, key is to leverage it by maximizing success in forecasting efforts and accuracy( without normal distortions like the bull-whip effect)
actual demand
Reduced stock levels and inventory costs Improved purchase planning and subsequent
errors
Planning horizon/lead time for operational
moves
money supply based on economic and fiscal data trends along with policy interventions
Demographic Forecasts- projections of population in aggregate and
disaggregate form forecasts using birth and death rates in each case
Technological Forecasts- predicting technological change e.g. in cloud
advance
Since forecasts are estimates and
involve consideration of so many price and non-price factors, no estimate is necessarily 100% accurate
into existing and new markets, end applications, current market size and future demand potential, market segmentation, customer profiling/attitudes/preferences et al
cater to the overall market and plan its marketing mix and product-market positioning et al looking process
Demand forecasting is essentially an outward/external Important as forms basis for sales forecasting
capital budgeting
To help evaluate market opportunities worthy of
future investments
To help assess its market share amongst other
competitors
To serve as input to aggregate production
rarely match actual demand/sales; forecast accuracy and errors are real issues
Their chosen time horizon also determines accuracy with
shorter periods having higher accuracy; the constant need to reduce lead times also puts focus on shorter planning horizons( as in lean manufacturing/JIT environments)
Aggregate demand forecasts are more accurate than
market segmental forecasts( e.g. all Maruti 800 cars versus red Maruti 800s; all paints versus blue color paints; all toothpastes versus herbal toothpastes); these have implications at different levels/stages of the supply chain
planning and scheduling; for specific products, machine capacities and deployment, labor skills and usage, cash inventories ; operational focus
Medium term forecasts say for next 3-12 months for plant level
planning for product/volume changes requiring redeployment of resources; for product groups, departmental capacities, work force management, purchased materials and inventories; tactical focus
Long term forecasts 1 year to 3 years for planning a new plant or
facility requiring major investments and other resources for both new and old product lines; strategic focus
production planning needing disaggregated product forecasts with high accuracy levels; primarily uses time series data methods
months) useful for aggregate sales and operational planning; also for seasonal business operations; uses both time series and causal forecasting models useful for aggregate business planning for capacity and site/location decisions; uses judgment and causal models
uncertain environment et al
days in month( 28-31; weekends/holidays; plant availability/maintenance schedules) factors, materials and resources availability demand and supply on a period-to-period basis in a cost effective manner
share that firm can carve out of the total market given its past sales as also current marketing strategies available capacity, plant performance, plant resources and stocks process context
Sales forecasting is essentially an inward/internal Forecasting from now is seen from operational
product/service offered
Demand forecasts consider various factors influencing the
overall demand for a product/service including economic and demographic factors, customer needs and expectations, market segmentation, disposable incomes et al
Sales forecasts are reflection of actual sales expected and
behavioral and unstructured issues and an analytical exercise using scientific principles
Despite its limitations, essential for planned
business operations
circumstances
Best we can do is to forecast these
circumstances
Since business decisions are driven by what
supply chain
Used for both push and pull processes Examples:
Production: scheduling, inventory, aggregate planning Marketing: sales force allocation, promotions, new production
introduction
Finance: plant/equipment investment, budgetary planning Personnel: workforce planning, hiring, layoffs
SCM mostly remains an in-corporate initiative SCM does not address the total business
Hence, need for collaborative supply chains Thus, born concept of Collaborative Planning
Forecasting Problems
Lack of understanding of integrated market and
supply realities by key decision makers within an organization chain elements and partner organizations
Lack of trust and transparency amongst supply Lack of proper communication, coordination and
Lack of metrics for measuring total supply chain Lack of IT tools, processes, professional
Planned Performance
Forecasts
Managers
Operations
Updated Forecasts
Actual Performance
Resources
Economic Outlook
Business Cycle Status Leading Indicators-Stock Prices, Bond Yields, Material Prices, Business Failures, money Supply, Unemployment
Outputs Estimated Demands for each Product in each Time Period Other Outputs
Management Team Production Capacity Available Resources Risk Aversion Experience Personal Values and Motives Social and Cultural
Other Factors
Legal, Political, Sociological, Forecast Cultural
Processor
Errors
Feedback
Sales Forecast Forecast and Demand for Each Product In Each Time
Sales Forecast Forecast and Demand for Each Product In Each Time Period
Processor
Business Strategy Marketing PlanAdvertising Sales Effort, Price, Past Sales Production PlansQuality Levels, Customer Service, Capacity Costs Finance Plan Credit Policies, Billing Policies
Procedure for Translating Sales Forecast into Production Resource Forecast Production Resource Forecasts
Long Range Medium Range Short Range Factory capacities Work Force Labor by Skill Class Capital Funds Department Capacities Machine Capacities Facility Needs Purchased Material Cash Other Inventories Inventories Others Other