Analysis

TheEuropeanHotelIndust

Introduction In terms of hotel supply,Europe is not only the largest market in the world,but also the most complex due to the diversity of its hotels and quasi hotels.However,the supply data on the European hotel industry is dire.The total number of hotels in Europe,far less the number of ro and other hotel facilities are little more than a guess.Agencies such as theWorldTourism Organisation record the numbers ofhotels and s establishments,but they are at the mercy of rough data supplied to them by too few governments in 2002,only 15 out of 52 European Governments supplied hotel data to theWTO.The problem is compounded by the absence of effective denitions to distinguish between hotelsandsimilar establishments. Our estimates of the total hotel and hotel room stock in each European country are derived from the available national sources to which economic,industrial and social yardsticks have been applied before professional judgement has been exercised.Currently,we estimate the size of the European hotel industry as follows:
European Regions OtusTotal Hotels OtusTotal Rooms Average Hotel Size Citizens/Room

15 European Union States 10 New EU States 27 Non-EU States GrandTotal

111,700 4,900 15,800 132,400

3,941,400 297,900 846,400 5,085,700

35 61 54 38

96 251 486 170

Source:National Statistics and Otus & Co

Although the total picture in Europe is insufciently clear we are able to be much more precise when it comes to hotel chains.The Otus Brand Database includes all portfolios in Europe with more than four hotels.This amounts to 280 companies and a whopping 400 hotel br The current overview is as follows:
European Regions Chain Hotels Chain Rooms Average Hotel Size Citizens/Chain Room Concentration %

15 European Union States 10 New EU States 27 Non-EU States GrandTotal

9,675 429 571 10,675

1,119,700 68,430 89,980 1,278,110

116 160 158 120

337 1092 4572 676

28% 23% 11% 25%

Source:Hotel chain data and Otus & Co

The structure of hotel chains in Europe is very inefcient.The largest 10% of chains account for almost two-thirds of the rooms,while t smallest 10% of chains account for only 0.5% of the rooms.The current hotel company structure is as follows:
European Hotel Chains Number of Companies Rooms Rooms/ Company Total Chain Rooms % Hotels Hotels/ Company Total Chain Hotels %

Largest 10% of chains Second largest 10% of chains Middle 50% of chains Third smallest 10% of chains Second smallest 10% of chains Smallest 10% of chains Totals

28 28 140 28 28 28 280

834,067 161,950 245,215 24,756 12,656 6,000 1,278,110

29,788 5,784 1,752 884 452 214 4,565

65.3% 12.7% 19.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 100.0%

6,843 1,190 1,989 224 241 188 10,675

244 43 14 8 9 7 38

64.1% 11.1% 18.6% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 100.0%

Source:Otus & Co

Of the 280 companies,108 have portfolios with less than 1,000 rooms.They have an average of only six hotels per company and 62 roo per hotel.These chains are not only the smallest.Most have too little brand infrastructure,only informal equity and limited cashow,all of w inhibit their growth and development.

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SizeandStructure
The Structure of the Otus Hotel Brand Database Three components of supply impact on the relative demand of chain hotels and the performance they can deliver: The hotels themselves (hotel component) The context in which they are located (contextual component) The company to which they are afliated (corporate component) These three components form the framework of the Otus Hotel Brand Database. Each component contains four supply variables. The hotel component The contextual component The Corporate component Market Level The economic structure of each country The afliation between each hotel and its brand Hotel Conguration The size of each conurbation The length of each brand Rooms Conguration The type of each conurbation The size of each brand Hotel size Hotel concentration per country The market share per country of each brand

The Otus Hotel Brand Database provides the most systematic and detailed supply analyses of hotel chains.It is updated annually and follow signicant transactions by the brands. Without an effective,on-going,systematic understanding of hotel supply the alignment with hotel demand is compromised,hotel investment decisions rely more on intuition than on systematic analysis and the thus performance of the industry is reduced to chance rather than effective management. In this note we will go on to examine the hotel component and in the next edition we will examine the contextual and corporate components The Hotel Component of European Hotel Chains 1.Market level There is no universally accepted global system for classifying the market levels of hotels.The traditional systems are partial and often contradictory.They reduce all of the supply characteristics of a hotel to one measure represented by a number of stars,crowns,diamonds or percentage scores.Typically,they focus on only one country,include only a small percentage of the hotels and are designed as a customer information service rather than an analytical tool. The Otus system focuses on hotels afliated to hotel brands and each chain hotel is classied in terms of the material provision of its built fabric.The following examples of hotel brands at different market levels are used as benchmarks of each market level to classify other hotels within chains. Market Level Benchmark Brands
Deluxe Conrad FourSeasons Kempinski LuxuryCollection Manderin OrientExpress ParkHyatt Rafes Ritz-Carlton RoccoForteHotels SavoyGroup StRegis UpMarket Clarion CrownePlaza DeVere Firmdale GrandHyatt Hilton HyattRegency Intercontinental JollyMaster LeMeridien Maritim Marriott Melia Millennium Radisson Renaissance Shangri-la Sheraton Sotel Swissotel Westin Mid-Market Economy Bastion BleuMarine Campanille Comfort DaysInn Ibis InnkeepersLodge Kyriad Nuited'hotel PremierLodge SleepInn TravelInn Travelodge Wetherlodge Budget Etap Formula1 PremiereClass Balladins

CountryInnbyCarlson CourtyardbyMarriott ExpressbyHolidayInn Forum FourPoints HolidayInn HolidayInnGardenCourt HowardJohnson JollyClassic MoatHouse Novotel Quality Ramada Scandic Sol SuiteHotels

Source:Otus & Co

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Analysis

TheEuropeanHotelIndust
Market Level
Sub-Variables Hotels Rooms Average Size Rooms %

The benchmark brands at each market level bear a close family resemblance and the market level of each hotel is a powerful determina of the demand it captures.The Otus approach to market level is an improvement on other approaches,since it is only one of 12 supply vari applied to each hotel to produce a more systematic prole of each hotel and each portfolio. The current market level prole for Europe is as follows:

Deluxe Up-Market Mid-Market Economy Budget Total

159 1919 4332 3196 1069 10675

24360 358790 576470 243300 75190 1278110

153 187 133 76 70 120

1.9% 28.1% 45.1% 19.0% 5.9% 100.0%

Source:Otus & Co

2.Hotel Conguration Hotel conguration relates to the range of non-room facilities at each hotel.The Otus structure of hotel conguration for each hotel requir following minimum facilities:
Hotel Resort Full Feature Hotel Basic Feature Hotel Limited Feature Hotel Rooms Only Hotel

Non-Room Facilities

Restaurants Bars Conference Rooms Indoor Leisure Outdoor Leisure Retail Outlets Casino Minimum Facilities

1 1 1 1 1 optional optional 5

1 1 1 either or optional optional 4

1 1 optional optional optional 0 0 2

1 0 optional 0 0 0 0 1

optional 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Source:Otus & Co

The hotel conguration variable enables hotels to be differentiated in terms of the range of facilities they provide.The Otus system de each of the ve hotel congurations in terms of the minimum facilities for the category.It is sometimes the case for hotels to have more th one of each facility without affecting its hotel conguration. The current hotel conguration prole in Europe is as follows:
Hotel Conguration
Sub-Variables Hotels Rooms Average Size Rooms %

Hotel Resorts Full Feature Hotels Basic Feature Hotels Limited Feature Hotels Rooms Only Hotels Total

786 2947 3014 2259 1669 10675

173000 521600 286270 185470 111770 1278110

220 177 95 82 67 120

13.5% 40.8% 22.4% 14.5% 8.7% 100.0%

Source:Otus & Co

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SizeandStructure

continued

3.Rooms Conguration Rooms conguration differentiates between hotels in terms of the pattern of room stock within each hotel.The Otus structure of rooms conguration is as follows: More than one room per key throughout the hotel Some suites - rooms,suites and/or apartments available in the hotel All rooms en suite Some rooms en suite No rooms en suite The current rooms conguration prole in Europe is as follows:
Rooms Conguration
Sub-Variables Hotels Rooms Average Size Rooms %

More than one room/key Some suites All rooms en suite Some rooms en suite No rooms en suite Total

264 1903 8135 39 334 10675

39875 342060 868745 2925 24505 1278110

151 180 107 75 73 120

3.1% 26.8% 68.0% 0.2% 1.9% 100.0%

Source:Otus & Co

4.Hotel Size Relates to the number of rooms or keys in each hotel.The Otus size classication of hotels is as follows: More than 1,000 rooms 200 999 rooms 50 199 rooms 17 49 rooms Less than 17 rooms The current hotel size conguration in Europe is as follows:
Hotel Size
Sub-Variables Hotels Rooms Average Size Rooms %

More than 1,000 rooms 200 999 rooms 50 199 rooms 17 49 rooms Less than 17 rooms Total

13 1619 6700 2163 180 10675

14610 508310 671265 81930 1995 1278110

1124 314 100 38 11 120

1.1% 39.8% 52.5% 6.4% 0.2% 100.0%

Source:Otus & Co

Conclusions One of the more recent hotel developments is represented by brands such as Express by Holiday Inns,Courtyard by Marriott and Country Inns Suites by Carlson.One conventional approach classies them as three star hotels,which does not differentiate them from other three star hotels with more extensive non-rooms provision.Another approach classies them as mid-market hotels without F&B,which is simply inaccurate. Their Otus hotel prole is mid-market,limited feature,all rooms en suite and an average hotel size of 102 rooms.In next months HotelAnaly the prole will be extended to include the contextual and corporate components to create a more effective brand prole. The proling derived from this analysis not only positions hotel brands more effectively relative to the market,but also is needed to explain demand they generate and their performance.Attracting capital and delivering the returns that capital markets demand will remain a very tough challenge without this. Paul Slattery,Director,Otus & CoAdvisory,paulslattery@otusco.com

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