..and Gods hand struck across the country.

Rome, 20 June 2010

Brucellosis in cattle in Uganda



Area prevalence Test Source
Central and
Southern
Uganda
14% RBT Nakavuma et al.,
1994
Mbarara Herd 55.6%, indiv
15.8%, within herd
1-90%
RBT Faye et al., 2005
Central and
Western Uganda
Herd 100%
(pastoral), 5.5.%
zero grazing
C-ELISA Magona et al.,
2009
Various districts 10% indiv animal Mwebe et al.,
2011
Kampala Mean Herd 6.5% &
within herd 25.9%
C-ELISA Makita et al., 2011
Luwero,
Nakasongola
1.2-4.7% RBT & C-ELISA Nizeyimana et al.,
2013
Field survey of brucellosis in buffaloes in
Murchison Falls, Queen Elizabeth, Kidepo Valley
and Lake Mburo National Parks in Uganda
Sampling
Target numbers were: Lake Mburo 11, Queen
Elizabeth 149, Kidepo 28, Murchison 110 serum
samples
Herds were identified and target animals randomly
selected and then darted followed by blood
collection from jugular or tail vein
Seroanalysis was done using RBT and C-ELISA
Results
Overall percentage prevalence of Brucella
antibodies in buffaloes was 21.57%.
Queen Elizabeth National Park 26.67%
Kidepo Valley National Park 26.19%
Murchison Falls National Park 19.84%.
Lake Mburo National Park had lowest prevalence
1.82%.
Nature of veterinary data
Problem of variability
E.g. Milk yield
Weight
Height
Antibody titres
Data:
(1) Nominal:
Generate counts:
Single counts
(e.g. number of animals)
Proportions
(e.g. prevalence; mortality)
Data:
(2) Ordinal:
General counts: of ranked data
(e.g. body condition score; score of
clinical severity)
Not true measurements
Not continuous data
Suitable measure of central tendency
= Median (not mean)
Data
Quantitative
Nominal Ordinal Discrete
(counts)
Continuous
(measurements)
Interval Ratio
Qualitative
(categorical)
Data:

(3) Continuous
Variability:
Demonstrated in single samples
for continuous data (and ordinal
data)
And in several samples for
continuous ordinal and nominal
data
(e.g. proportions, prevalence)
Relevant to sampling
One-sample case
(e.g. field surveys of disease prevalence)
Three or more samples
Variability:
Two-sample case
(e.g. comparing two groups: milk yield,
weight gain, disease in relation to risk
factors)

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Weight (kg)
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

p
i
g
s

Median (Q
2
) = 50
th
percentile
Standard deviation (s)
Central tendancy
Spread
= (x)
n
Mean (x)
Where s
2
= (x- )
2

(n-1)
x
Semi-interquartile range (SIR)
SIR = (Q
3
-Q
1
)
2
Where
Q
1
= 25
th
percentile (lower quartile)
Q
3
= 75
th
percentile (upper quartile)
The Normal distribution
-2 - + +2
-2 -1 0 1 2
68%
Properties of the Normal distribution
95% of values lie between
-1.96 and + 1.96
(z = 1.96)
For 90%, z = 1.645
For 99%, z = 2.576
Population values take Greek letters
Note convention:
Samples provide only estimates of population values
Sample values take Roman letters
Sample mean = x
e.g. Population mean =
Sample standard deviation = s
Population standard deviation =
The bigger the sample, the more precise sample
estimate
YES
Do sample means have
distributions??
The Normal distribution
-2 - + +2
-2 -1 0 1 2
68%
YES!
Do sample means have distributions?
The distribution is Normal, too!
The standard deviation of the mean is
called the standard error of the mean
(SEM) to avoid confusion with the standard
deviation of the individual values in a
sample
The SEM can be estimated from a single
sample:
SEM = s/n
A User-Friendly way of describing a range within
which a population value lies, with defined probablity
Confidence intervals
For Normally distributed data, uses the properties of
the distribution
Based on the standard error
Correction for variability induced by the sample size
e.g. for a 95% interval (probability 0.95), the interval is
x 1.96 x SEM
Confidence limits:
(1) On 95% of occasions:
The C.I. x 1.96 s.e. contains the mean
(2) In a single sample:
The C.I. x 1.96 s.e. contains the mean with
probability 0.95
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n

o
f

v
a
l
u
e
s

o
f

x
/
u
n
i
t

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
x
Normal distribution
t distribution
lognormal distribution
Include:
Other distributions:
Binomial
Poisson
Normal approximations:
Acceptable with large samples:
Leading to asymptotic (large sample),
as opposed to exact, methods
Other approximations:
Poisson to the binomial
A Hat:

Additional sample notation:

samples may be indicated by
An asterisk: *