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Artificial Intelligence and Expert


Systems
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Artificial Intelligence and
Expert Systems
Managerial Decision Makers are
Knowledge Workers
Use Knowledge in Decision Making
Accessibility to Knowledge Issue
Knowledge-Based Decision Support:
Applied Artificial Intelligence
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AI Concepts and Definitions
Many Definitions
AI Involves Studying Human Thought
Processes
Representing Thought Processes on
Machines
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Artificial Intelligence
Behavior by a machine that, if
performed by a human being, would
be considered intelligent
study of how to make computers
do things at which, at the moment,
people are better (Rich and Knight
[1991])
Theory of how the human mind
works (Mark Fox)
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AI Objectives
Make machines smarter (primary goal)
Understand what intelligence is (Nobel
Laureate purpose)
Make machines more useful
(entrepreneurial purpose)

(Winston and Prendergast [1984])
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Signs of Intelligence
Learn or understand from experience
Make sense out of ambiguous or
contradictory messages
Respond quickly and successfully to
new situations
Use reasoning to solve problems
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More Signs of Intelligence
Deal with perplexing situations
Understand and infer in ordinary,
rational ways
Apply knowledge to manipulate the
environment
Think and reason
Recognize the relative importance of
different elements in a situation
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AI Programs Manipulate Symbols to
Solve Problems

Symbols and Symbol Structures
Form Knowledge Representation

Artificial Intelligence Dealings
Primarily with Symbolic,
Nonalgorithmic Problem-Solving
Methods
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Characteristics of
Artificial Intelligence
Numeric versus Symbolic
Algorithmic versus Nonalgorithmic
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Heuristic Methods for
Processing Information
Search
Inferencing

AI is the branch of computer science that deals
with ways of representing knowledge using
symbols rather than numbers and with rules-of-
thumb, or heuristic, methods for processing
information.
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AI Advantages Over Natural
Intelligence
More permanent
Ease of duplication and dissemination
Less expensive
Consistent and thorough
Can be documented
Can execute certain tasks much faster
than a human can
Can perform certain tasks better than
many or even most people
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Natural Intelligence
Advantages over AI
Natural intelligence is creative
People use sensory experience directly
Can use a wide context of experience in
different situations

AI - Very Narrow Focus
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Knowledge in
Artificial Intelligence
Knowledge encompasses the implicit and
explicit restrictions placed upon objects
(entities), operations, and relationships
along with general and specific heuristics
and inference procedures involved in the
situation being modeled

Of data, information, and knowledge,
KNOWLEDGE is most abstract and in the
smallest quantity
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Uses of Knowledge
Knowledge consists of facts, concepts, theories,
heuristic methods, procedures, and relationships
Knowledge is also information organized and
analyzed for understanding and applicable to
problem solving or decision making
Knowledge base - the collection of knowledge
related to a problem (or opportunity) used in an
AI system
Typically limited in some specific, usually narrow,
subject area or domain
The narrow domain of knowledge, and that an AI
system must involve some qualitative aspects of
decision making (critical for AI application
success)
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Knowledge Bases
Search the Knowledge Base for Relevant
Facts and Relationships
Reach One or More Alternative Solutions
to a Problem
Augments the User (Typically a Novice)
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Table 6.2: Artificial Intelligence
vs. Conventional Programming
Dimension Artificial Intelligence Conventional Programming
Processing Primarily Symbolic Primarily Algorithmic
Nature of Input Can be Incomplete Must be Complete
Search Heuristic (Mostly) Algorithms
Explanation Provided Usually Not Provided
Major Interest Knowledge Data, Information
Structure Separation of Control
from Knowledge
Control Integrated with
Information (Data)
Nature of Output Can be Incomplete Must be Correct
Maintenance and
Update
Easy Because of
Modularity
Usually Difficult
Hardware Mainly Workstations and
Personal Computers
All Types
Reasoning
Capability
Limited, but Improving None
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Major AI Areas
Expert Systems
Natural Language Processing
Speech Understanding
Robotics and Sensory Systems
Computer Vision and Scene
Recognition
Intelligent Computer-Aided
Instruction
Neural Computing
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Additional AI Areas
News Summarization
Language Translation
Fuzzy Logic
Genetic Algorithms
Intelligent Software Agents
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An Expert System Solution
General Electric's (GE) : Top Locomotive Field Service Engineer was
Nearing Retirement
Traditional Solution: Apprenticeship but would like
A more effective and dependable way to disseminate expertise
To prevent valuable knowledge from retiring
To minimize extensive travel or moving the locomotives

To MODEL the way a human troubleshooter works
Months of knowledge acquisition
3 years of prototyping
A novice engineer or technician can perform at an experts level
On a personal computer
Installed at every railroad repair shop served by GE
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(ES) Introduction
Expert System vs. knowledge-based system
An Expert System is a system that employs human
knowledge captured in a computer to solve problems
that ordinarily require human expertise
ES imitate the experts reasoning processes to solve
specific problems
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Expert Systems
Attempt to Imitate Expert Reasoning
Processes and Knowledge in Solving
Specific Problems
Most Popular Applied AI Technology
Enhance Productivity
Augment Work Forces
Narrow Problem-Solving Areas or Tasks
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Expert Systems
Provide Direct Application of
Expertise

Expert Systems Do Not Replace
Experts, But They
Make their Knowledge and Experience
More Widely Available
Permit Nonexperts to Work Better
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Expert Systems
Expertise
Transferring Experts
Inferencing
Rules
Explanation Capability
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Expertise
The extensive, task-specific knowledge
acquired from training, reading and
experience
Theories about the problem area
Hard-and-fast rules and procedures
Rules (heuristics)
Global strategies
Meta-knowledge (knowledge about
knowledge)
Facts
Enables experts to be better and faster than
nonexperts
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Human Expert Behaviors
Recognize and formulate the problem
Solve problems quickly and properly
Explain the solution
Learn from experience
Restructure knowledge
Break rules
Determine relevance
Degrade gracefully
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Human Experts
Knowledge acquisition from human experts
the paradox of expertise
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Transferring Expertise
Objective of an expert system
To transfer expertise from an expert to a computer
system and
Then on to other humans (nonexperts)
Activities
Knowledge acquisition
Knowledge representation
Knowledge inferencing
Knowledge transfer to the user
Knowledge is stored in a knowledge base
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Two Knowledge Types
Facts
Procedures (usually rules)

Regarding the Problem Domain
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Inferencing
Reasoning (Thinking)
The computer is programmed so that it
can make inferences
Performed by the Inference Engine
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Rules
IF-THEN-ELSE

Explanation Capability
By the justifier, or explanation
subsystem
ES versus Conventional Systems
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Knowledge as Rules
MYCIN rule example:
IF the infection is meningitis
AND patient has evidence of serious skin or soft tissue
infection
AND organisms were not seen on the stain of the culture
AND type of infection is bacterial
THEN There is evidence that the organism (other than
those seen on cultures or smears) causin the infection
is Staphylococus coagpus.

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Structure of
Expert Systems
Development Environment
Consultation (Runtime) Environment
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Three Major ES Components
User
Interface
Inference
Engine
Knowledge
Base
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Knowledge
Base
Inference
Engine
User Interface
Explanation
Facility
Working
Memory
Knowledge
Acquisition
ES Shell
Database,
Spreadsheets, etc.
Basic ES Structure
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All ES Components
Knowledge Acquisition Subsystem
Knowledge Base
Inference Engine
User Interface
Blackboard (Workplace)
Explanation Subsystem (Justifier)
Knowledge Refining System
User

Most ES do not have a Knowledge Refinement
Component
(See Figure 10.3)
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Knowledge Base
The knowledge base contains the knowledge
necessary for understanding, formulating, and solving
problems

Two Basic Knowledge Base Elements
Facts
Special heuristics, or rules that direct the use of
knowledge

Knowledge is the primary raw material of ES
Incorporated knowledge representation
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Inference Engine
The brain of the ES
The control structure (rule interpreter)
Provides methodology for reasoning
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User Interface
Language processor for friendly,
problem-oriented communication
NLP, or menus and graphics
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The Human Element in Expert
Systems
Builder and User
Expert and Knowledge engineer.

The Expert
Has the special knowledge, judgment, experience and
methods to give advice and solve problems
Provides knowledge about task performance
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The Knowledge Engineer
Helps the expert(s) structure the problem area by
interpreting and integrating human answers to
questions, drawing analogies, posing
counterexamples, and bringing to light conceptual
difficulties

Usually also the System Builder
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The User
Possible Classes of Users
A non-expert client seeking direct advice - the ES
acts as a Consultant or Advisor
A student who wants to learn - an I nstructor
An ES builder improving or increasing the
knowledge base - a Partner
An expert - a Colleague or Assistant
The Expert and the Knowledge Engineer
Should Anticipate Users' Needs and
Limitations When Designing ES
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How Expert Systems Work
Major Activities of
ES Construction and Use

Development
Consultation
Improvement
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ES Development
Construction of the knowledge base
Knowledge separated into
Declarative (factual) knowledge and
Procedural knowledge
Construction (or acquisition) of an inference engine,
a blackboard, an explanation facility, and any other
software
Determine appropriate knowledge representations
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ES Shell
Includes All Generic ES Components
But No Knowledge
EMYCIN from MYCIN
(E=Empty)
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Expert Systems Shells
Software Development
Packages
Exsys
InstantTea
K-Vision
KnowledgePro
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Problem Areas Addressed
by Expert Systems
Interpretation systems
Prediction systems
Diagnostic systems
Design systems
Planning systems
Monitoring systems
Debugging systems
Repair systems
Instruction systems
Control systems
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Expert Systems Benefits
Improved Decision Quality
Increased Output and Productivity
Decreased Decision Making Time
Increased Process(es) and Product Quality
Capture Scarce Expertise
Can Work with Incomplete or Uncertain
Information
Enhancement of Problem Solving and Decision
Making
Improved Decision Making Processes
Knowledge Transfer to Remote Locations
Enhancement of Other MIS
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Lead to
Improved decision making
Improved products and customer service
Sustainable strategic advantage

May enhance organizations image
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Problems and Limitations of
Expert Systems
Knowledge is not always readily available
Expertise can be hard to extract from humans
Expert system users have natural cognitive limits
ES work well only in a narrow domain of
knowledge
Knowledge engineers are rare and expensive
Lack of trust by end-users
ES may not be able to arrive at valid conclusions
ES sometimes produce incorrect
recommendations
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Expert System
Success Factors
Most Critical Factors
Champion in Management
User Involvement and Training
Plus
The level of knowledge must be sufficiently high
There must be (at least) one cooperative expert
The problem must be qualitative (fuzzy), not
quantitative
The problem must be sufficiently narrow in scope
The ES shell must be high quality, and naturally
store and manipulate the knowledge
A friendly user interface
Important and difficult enough problem
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For Success
1. Business applications justified by
strategic impact (competitive advantage)
2. Well-defined and structured applications
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Expert Systems Types
Expert Systems Versus Knowledge-based
Systems
Rule-based Expert Systems
Frame-based Systems
Hybrid Systems
Model-based Systems
Ready-made (Off-the-Shelf) Systems
Real-time Expert Systems
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ES on the Web
Provide knowledge and advice
Help desks
Knowledge acquisition
Spread of multimedia-based expert
systems (Intelimedia systems)

Support ES and other AI
technologies provided to the
Internet/Intranet

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