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LESSON 21

CRISIS DECISION MAKING


USS Vincennes Case Study
USS Vincennes Case Study
Historical Background
THE LINGERING THREAT IN THE MIDDLE EAST
SHAH OVERTHROWN - 62 AMERICANS TAKEN HOSTAGE (1979)
IRAN/IRAQ WAR COMMENCES (SEP 1980)
BEIRUT EMBASSY BOMBING (1983)
TANKER WAR ESCALATES (1984)
USS STARK INCIDENT (MAY 87)
IRAQI F-1 LAUNCHES (2) EXOCET MISSILES (Pilot Error)
37 DEATHS, 21 INJURED, CO RELIEVED FOR CAUSE
U.S. REFLAGS KUWAITI TANKERS (1987)
OPERATION: EARNEST WI LL - U.S. REFLAGS 11 TANKERS (JUL)
M/V BRIDGETON STRIKES A MINE (as did two other vessels)
IRAN AJR CAUGHT LAYING MINES (SEP 87)
USS SAMUEL B. ROBERTS STRIKES MINE (APR 88)
OPERATION: PRAYI NG MANTI S - Response against the Iranian Navy
USS Vincennes Incident
Seven Minutes that Stunned the Navy
USS Stark Incident
Historical Background (Review)
USS Vincennes (CG-49)
Combat Information Center
Commander, Joint Task Force, Middle East
Chain of Command
USS Sides
Cdr Carlson, CO
(FFG-14)
.
USS Montgomery
(FF-1082)
"GW" - AAWC
Capt Rodgers, USN
CO, USS Vincennes
(CG-49)
"GS" - ASUWC
COMDESRON 25
Capt. Dick McKenna
USS John Hancock
"GX", "GP", "GQ"
Other Warfare
Commanders
(ASWC, Strike, C2WC)
"GB" - COMJTFME
RADM A. Less, USN
Embarked, USS CORONADO
Pierside Bahrain
USCENTCOM
General Crist, USAF
McDill Air Force Base
Florida
CJCS
ADM William J. Crowe
Joint Chiefs of Staff
Washington, DC
Combatant Commander
(COCOM) ****
Component Commander
(OPCON) *
Warfare Commanders
(TACON) O-6
USS Vincennes Case Study
Air Warfare PID Criteria
Kinematics (course, speed, altitude , CPA)
Point of origin
Composition (Quantity)
ESM
IFF
Position relative to COMAIR routes
Published AOG Flight Schedules
Intel Reports (Indications and Warnings)
Voice comms (Queries and Warnings)
USS Vincennes Case Study
Peacetime Rules of Engagement (ROE)
INHERENT RIGHT OF SELF DEFENSE - permits the use
of force in self-defense against armed attack or threat of
imminent armed attack subject to the following:

NECESSITY - use of force must be IRT a hostile act or
demonstration of hostile intent.
PROPORTIONALITY - use of force must be limited in intensity,
duration, and scope.

HOSTILE ACT - deliberate attacks by opposing forces.
Examples: actual attacks, laying mines in international waters, etc.

HOSTILE INTENT - the threat of imminent use of force
by opposing forces.
Examples: training weapons systems, energizing fire control radars,
maneuvering to launch position.
USS Vincennes Case Study
Sequence of Events 03 J ul 88
Surface Engagement
VINCENNES IN GULF ENROUTE PVST BAHRAIN
0711 MON hears reports of 5-7 explosions near a Liberian tanker
MON directed by GS to proceed away from the tanker
VIN directed to vector SH-60B to investigate
0742 OL25 observers gunboats circling a German cargo ship
0915 OL25 reports being fired upon by IRG gunboats
0939 VIN requests permission to engage gunboats
0941 GS gave permission to engage boghammers with guns
0942 Iranian gunboats turn inbound toward VIN
0943 VIN/MON commenced fire with 5in/54 guns
0945:30 IA655 launches from Bandar Abbas
1003 VIN/MON ceased fire (119 rounds expended)
UNCLASSIFIED
USS Vincennes Case Study
Sequence of Events 03 J ul 88
Air Engagement
0945:30 IA655 launches from Bandar Abbas
0947 VIN gains radar contact (SPY-1A) (47 nm)
0949 VIN issues initial warning over MAD to TN 4131 (40 nm)
Ten warnings given in next five minutes (3 IAD / 7 MAD)
0950 VIN reports inbound F-14 to GB (32 nm)
0951 VIN states that intentions are to engage contact at 20 nm if
the contact does not turn away (now 30 nm)
0951 VIN forward 5in gun jams (MT51) - ship turns violently
0952 VIN issues several warnings to TN 4131 (25nm)
0952 VIN requests and receives permission to illuminate (20 nm)
0953 TN 4131 was at 16nm SPD 371 kts, ALT 11,230 ft
0954:05 VIN engages TN 4131 at 10 nm (salvo size two)
UNCLASSIFIED
USS Vincennes Case Study
Artershocks
Formal Board of Inquiry was convened by
RADM Fogerty 13 Jul 88.
Official parties to the inquiry:
RADM Less (principal)
CAPT Rodgers (principal)
LCDR Scott Lustig (Air TAO)
LCDR Vic Guillory (TAO)
Findings:
during the formal portion of the inquiry, the board
found no grounds for disciplinary or punitive action.
UNCLASSIFIED
USS Vincennes Case Study
Investigation - Synopsis of Facts
IRAN AIR ACTUAL FLIGHT PROFILE
Always ascending
Only mode III IFF squawk
Within airway Amber 59
Maximum air speed of 385 knots

AEGIS WEAPON SYSTEM PERFORMANCE
No Aegis weapon system equipment deficiencies existed during
the engagement. Link-11 was down for 28 seconds.
PERSONNEL PERFORMANCE
With little time and under combat stress during the surface
engagement, watchstanders misinterpreted some tactical
information.
UNCLASSIFIED
USS Vincennes Case Study
Fundamental Considerations that the
Vincennes Could Not Control
ISSUES FACED BY CAPTAIN RODGERS:
Ongoing surface engagement.
The unidentified assumed hostile contact had taken off
from a civilian-military airfield.
Heading directly toward Vincennes, relentlessly closing.
No definitive radar emissions.
Unanswered warnings.
Short decision window.
No proof that the contact was not related to the ongoing
surface fight.
CRISIS LEADERSHIP
Key Lessons
MAINTAIN FLEXIBILITY
be willing to show flexibility; do not be tied to inflexible policies of the
past that may not apply to the fast-moving situations of the present.
be open to suggestions on how to solve crises
AVOID TASK FIXATION
someone needs to be looking at the big picture
AVOID SCENARIO FULFILLMENT BIASES
dont neglect to search for disconfirmatory information.
KEEP THINGS SIMPLE
ask people to do things that they are already trained to do.
USS Vincennes Case Study
Epilogue
CAPT Rodgers
Completed remainder of scheduled deployment, returning to
San Diego in 24 Oct 88.
July 1989 assumed command of TACTRAGRUPAC
Retired Aug 1991 and is now a consultant
RADM Less
Subsequently promoted to VADM and appointed
COMNAVAIRPAC.
LCDR Vic Guillory and LCDR Scott Lustig
Both promoted to CDR and completed successful XO tours
aboard new-construction Aegis Cruisers.

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