Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Aims of Sampling
Probability Distributions
Sampling Distributions
The Central Limit Theorem
Types of Samples

Aims of sampling
Reduces cost of research (e.g. political
polls)
Generalize about a larger population (e.g.,
benefits of sampling city r/t neighborhood)
In some cases (e.g. industrial production)
analysis may be destructive, so sampling
is needed
Probability
Probability: what is the chance that a given
event will occur?
Probability is expressed in numbers
between 0 and 1. Probability = 0 means
the event never happens; probability = 1
means it always happens.
The total probability of all possible event
always sums to 1.
Probability distributions: Permutations
What is the probability distribution of number
of girls in families with two children?
2 GG
1 BG
1 GB
0 BB
Probability Distribution of
Number of Girls
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 1 2
How about family of three?
Num. Girls child #1 child #2 child #3
0 B B B
1 B B G
1 B G B
1 G B B
2 B G G
2 G B G
2 G G B
3 G G G
Probability distribution of number of girls
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 1 2 3
How about a family of 10?
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
As family size increases, the binomial
distribution looks more and more normal.

Number of Successes
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
Number of Successes
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 -0
Normal distribution
Same shape, if you adjusted the scales
C A
B
Coin toss
Toss a coin 30 times
Tabulate results
Coin toss
Suppose this were 12 randomly selected
families, and heads were girls
If you did it enough times distribution would
approximate Normal distribution
Think of the coin tosses as samples of all
possible coin tosses

Sampling distribution
Sampling distribution of the mean A
theoretical probability distribution of sample
means that would be obtained by drawing from
the population all possible samples of the same
size.



Central Limit Theorem
No matter what we are measuring, the
distribution of any measure across all
possible samples we could take
approximates a normal distribution, as
long as the number of cases in each
sample is about 30 or larger.
Central Limit Theorem
If we repeatedly drew samples from a
population and calculated the mean of a
variable or a percentage or, those sample
means or percentages would be normally
distributed.
Most empirical distributions are not normal:
U.S. Income distribution 1992
But the sampling distribution of mean income over
many samples is normal
Sampling Distribution of Income, 1992 (thousands)
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
N
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f

s
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p
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s
N
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s
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s

Standard Deviation
Measures how spread
out a distribution is.

Square root of the sum
of the squared
deviations of each
case from the mean
over the number of
cases, or



N
X
i

Deviation from Mean

Amount X (X - X) ( X - X )
600 435 600 - 435 = 165 27,225
350 435 350 - 435 = -85 7,225
275 435 275 - 435 = -160 25,600
430 435 430 -435 = -5 25
520 435 520 - 435 = 85 7,225
0 67,300
( ) X X
n

1
s =

=
=
= 129.71
67 300
4
,
16 825 ,
2
2
Example of Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation and Normal Distribution
10
8
6
4
2
0
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Sample Means
S.D. = 2.02
Mean of means = 41.0
Number of Means = 21
Distribution of Sample Means with 21
Samples
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Sample Means
Distribution of Sample Means with 96
Samples
S.D. = 1.80
Mean of Means = 41.12
Number of Means = 96
Distribution of Sample Means with 170
Samples
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

30

20

10

0
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Sample Means
S.D. = 1.71
Mean of Means= 41.12
Number of Means= 170
The standard deviation of the sampling
distribution is called the standard error
Standard error can be estimated from a single sample:

The Central Limit Theorem
Where
s is the sample standard deviation (i.e., the
sample based estimate of the standard deviation of
the population), and

n is the size (number of observations) of the sample.
Because we know that the sampling distribution is normal,
we know that 95.45% of samples will fall within two
standard errors.

95% of samples fall within 1.96
standard errors.

99% of samples fall within
2.58 standard errors.



Confidence intervals
Sampling
Population A group that includes all the
cases (individuals, objects, or groups) in
which the researcher is interested.
Sample A relatively small subset from a
population.
Random Sampling
Simple Random Sample A sample
designed in such a way as to ensure
that (1) every member of the population
has an equal chance of being chosen
and (2) every combination of N
members has an equal chance of being
chosen.
This can be done using a computer,
calculator, or a table of random
numbers
Population inferences can be made...
...by selecting a representative sample from
the population
Random Sampling
Systematic random sampling A
method of sampling in which every Kth
member (K is a ration obtained by dividing
the population size by the desired sample
size) in the total population is chosen for
inclusion in the sample after the first
member of the sample is selected at
random from among the first K members
of the population.

Systematic Random Sampling
Stratified Random Sampling
Proportionate stratified sample The size
of the sample selected from each subgroup is
proportional to the size of that subgroup in
the entire population. (Self weighting)
Disproportionate stratified sample The
size of the sample selected from each
subgroup is disproportional to the size of that
subgroup in the population. (needs weights)
Disproportionate Stratified Sample
Stratified Random Sampling
Stratified random sample A method of
sampling obtained by (1) dividing the
population into subgroups based on one or
more variables central to our analysis and
(2) then drawing a simple random sample
from each of the subgroups