BEGIN

Rainfall-Runoff Models

Excess Precipitation or
Runoff Volume Models

May be:

Physically Based
Empirical
Descriptive
Conceptual
Generally Lumped
Etc
May not only estimate excess precipitation
hence, we will refer to them as rainfall-runoff
models..

The Basic Process.

Necessary for a
single basin

Focus on
Excess
Precipitation
Excess Precip.
Model

Excess Precip.

Excess Precip.

Basin Routing
UHG Methods

Runoff
Hydrograph

Runoff
Hydrograph

Stream and/or
Reservoir
Routing

Downstream
Hydrograph

Goal of Rainfall-Runoff
Models

The fate of the falling precipitation

is:
modeled in order to account for
the destiny of the precipitation that
falls and the potential of the
precipitation to affect the the runoff
hydrograph.
losses include interception,
evapotranspiration, storage,
infiltration, percolation, and finally runoff.
Lets look at the fate of the
precipitation..

Interception...........
First, the falling precipitation may
be intercepted by the vegetation in an
area.
It is typically either distributed as
runoff or evaporated back to the
atmosphere.
The leafy matter may also be a form
of interception.

Canopy(or lack of)

Leafy Matter also intercepts...

Very thick ground litter layers can hold as much as 0.5 inches!

Interceptionthe point

The point of the interception is that the

precipitation is temporarily stored before
the next process begins.
The intercepted/stored precipitation may
not reach the ground to contribute to
runoff.
Interception may be referred to as an
abstraction and is accounted for as initial
abstraction in some models.
This is also true for snowfall which may
sublimate and leave the watershed!

Infiltration...........
Precipitation reaching the ground may
infiltrate.
This is the process of moving from the
atmosphere into the soil.
Infiltration may be regarded as either a
rate or a total. For example: the soil can
infiltrate 1.2 inches/hour. Alternatively, we
could say the soil has a total infiltration
capacity of 3 inches.
Note that in both cases the units are
Length or length per time!

Infiltration, cont...........
Infiltration is nearly impossible to measure
directly - as we would disturb the sample in
doing so.
We can infer infiltration in a variety of
ways (to be discussed at a later point).
The exact point at which the atmosphere
ends and the soil beings is very difficult to
define and generally we are not concerned
with this fine detail!
In other words, we mostly want to know
how much of the precipitation actually
enters the soil.

Percolation.....
Once the water infiltrates into the ground, the
downward movement of water through the soil
profile may begin.

Percolation.....
The percolating water may move as
a saturated front - under the
influence of gravity

Percolation.....
Or, it may move as unsaturated
flow mostly due to capillary
forces.

Percolation.the point
The vertical percolation of the water into
various levels or zones allows for storage
in the subsurface these zones will be
very important in the SAC-SMA model.
This stored subsurface water is held and
released as either evaporation,
transpiration, or as streamflow eventually
reaching the watershed outlet.

Evaporation....
Is the movement of water from the liquid state
to the vapor state - allowing transport to the
atmosphere.
Occurs from any wet surface or open body of
water.
Soil can have water evaporate from within, as
can leafy matter, living leaves and plants, etc..
The water evaporates from a storage location....

Transpiration....
The process of water moving from the soil via
the plants internal moisture supply system.
This is a type of evaporative process.
The water moves through the stomates, tiny
openings in the leaves (mostly on the
underside), that allow the passage of oxygen,
carbon dioxide, water vapor, and other gases.

Evapotranspiration....
The terms transpiration and evaporation are
often combined in the form :

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

Storage....
Storage occurs at several locations in the
hydrologic cycle and varies in both space and
time - spatially and temporally.
Water can be stored in:
The unsaturated portion of the soil
The saturated portion (below the water table)
On the soil or surface - snow/snowpack,
puddles, ponds, lakes, wetlands.
Rivers and stream channels - even though
they are generally in motion!

Storage....
Water in storage can still be involved in a
process.
i.e. :
Water in a puddle may be evaporating.....

The hydrologic cycle represented as a

series of storage units & processes....

Storm Flow

Base Flow

RO

=
Surface
runoff
yes

Depression
Storage
Is I > f?

Channel
Storage

no
Channel
runoff

Surface
runoff

Is
retention
full?

no

yes

Detention
Storage
Ground Water
Storage
Retention
Storage
Vegetation
Storage

Storage....

The thought process.......

Storm Flow

Base Flow

RO

=
Surface
runoff
yes

Depression
Storage
Is I > f?

Channel
Storage

no
Channel
runoff

Surface
runoff

Is
retention
full?

no

yes

Detention
Storage
Ground Water
Storage
Retention
Storage
Vegetation
Storage

Storage....

Things to consider:
We looked at these as independent processes!
We looked at the processes as discrete time
steps!
What were the initial conditions before the
storm? What effects would initial conditions
have?
These are the issues that a continuous
rainfall-runoff model must consider

The Units
The

units are very important

Storage is a volume (L3) and flow is a
volume per time (L3/T) .
We often think of these volume units
in terms of length only!
This implies a uniform depth or value
throughout the watershed.

Examples of Length Units for

Storage

The watershed can infiltrate 75mm of

water a length
The lower zone of the soil can hold
60mm...
The initial abstraction for the watershed is
10mm
The reservoir can hold 2.5 inches of
runoff
These all imply uniformity over the
watershed

The Rainfall-Runoff
Modeling Process

simplistic methods such as a constant loss

method may be used.
A constant loss approach assumes that the
soil can constantly infiltrate the same amount
of precipitation throughout the storm event.
The obvious weaknesses are the neglecting of
spatial variability, temporal variability, and
recovery potential.
Other methods include exponential decays
(the infiltration rate decays exponentially),
empirical methods, and physically based
methods.
There are also combinations of these
methods.

Initial Abstractions
Initial Abstraction - It is generally
assumed that the initial abstractions must
be satisfied before any direct storm
runoff may begin. The initial abstraction
is often thought of as a lumped sum
(depth). Viessman (1968) found that 0.1
inches was reasonable for small urban
watersheds.

Would forested & rural watersheds be

more or less?

Rural watersheds would probably

have a higher initial abstraction.
The Soil Conservation Service (SCS)
now the NRCS uses a percentage of
the ultimate infiltration holding
capacity of the soil - i.e. 20% of the
maximum soil retention capacity.

Some Rainfall-Runoff Models

Phi-Index
Horton

Equation
SCS Curve
Number
SAC-SMA

Constant Infiltration Rate

A constant infiltration rate is the most simple of the
methods. It is often referred to as a phi-index or -index.
In some modeling situations it is used in a conservative
mode.
The saturated soil conductivity may be used for the
infiltration rate.
The obvious weakness is the inability to model changes in
infiltration rate.
The phi-index may also be estimated from individual storm
events by looking at the runoff hydrograph.

Hydrograph Breakdown
700.0000

600.0000

500.0000

Surface
Response

400.0000

300.0000

200.0000

100.0000

0.0000

Baseflow

Hydrograph Breakdown
700.0000

Total
Hydrograph

600.0000

500.0000

Surface
Response

400.0000

300.0000

Baseflow
200.0000

100.0000

0.0000
0.0000

0.5000

1.0000

1.5000

2.0000

2.5000

3.0000

3.5000

4.0000

Derive phi-index
sample watershed = 450 mi2

25000

0.8

0.7
20000

0.5

Flow (cfs)

15000

0.4
10000

0.3

0.2
5000
0.1

Time (hrs.)

Precipitation (inches)

0.6

Separation of Baseflow
... generally accepted that the inflection point on the
recession limb of a hydrograph is the result of a
change in the controlling physical processes of the
excess precipitation flowing to the basin outlet.
In this example, baseflow is considered to be a
straight line connecting that point at which the
hydrograph begins to rise rapidly and the inflection
point on the recession side of the hydrograph.
the inflection point may be found by plotting the
hydrograph in semi-log fashion with flow being plotted
on the log scale and noting the time at which the
recession side fits a straight line.

Semi-log Plot
100000

10000

Recession side of hydrograph

becomes linear at approximately hour
64.

Flow (cfs)

1000

100

10

Time (hrs.)

Hydrograph & Baseflow

25000

20000

Flow (cfs)

15000

10000

5000

Time (hrs.)

133

126

119

112

105

98

91

84

77

70

63

56

49

42

35

28

21

14

Separate Baseflow
25000

20000

Flow (cfs)

15000

10000

5000

Time (hrs.)

Sample Calculations

In the present example (hourly time step), the flows are

summed and then multiplied by 3600 seconds to
determine the volume of runoff in cubic feet. If desired,
this value may then be converted to acre-feet by
dividing by 43,560 square feet per acre.
The depth of direct runoff in feet is found by dividing the
total volume of excess precipitation (now in acre-feet)
by the watershed area (450 mi2 converted to 288,000
acres).
In this example, the volume of excess precipitation or
direct runoff for storm #1 was determined to be 39,692
acre-feet.
The depth of direct runoff is found to be 0.1378 feet
after dividing by the watershed area of 288,000 acres.
Finally, the depth of direct runoff in inches is 0.1378 x
12 = 1.65 inches.

Summing Flows

Continuous process
represented with
discrete time steps

Estimating Excess Precip.

0.8

1.65 inches of
excess
precipitation

0.7

Precipitation (inches)

0.6

0.5

Uniform loss rate of

0.2 inches per hour.

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Time (hrs.)

Phi-Index Summary
The phi-index for this storm was 0.2
inches per hour.
This is a uniform loss rate.
If the precipitation stops for a time period,
the infiltration will still be 0.2 inches per
hour when the precipitation starts again.
Regardless of this weakness, this is still
very powerful information to have
regarding the response of a watershed.

Exponential Decay - Horton

This is purely a mathematical function - of the following form:

f f (f f )e kt
i c
o c
fo
fi = infiltration capacity at time, t
fc = final infiltration capacity
fo = initial infiltration capacity

fc

Horton
Effect of fo or fc

Horton
Effect of K

Horton
Assumes that precipitation supply is
greater than infiltration rate.
2

1
0

Horton
There are now 2 parameters to
estimate or calibrate for a watershed!!
fo & k

Horton Issues with

Continuous Simulation

Again,

if it stops raining how does

the soil recover in a Horton model?
i.e.
Stopped raining for a
short period how does
the soil recover?

SCS Curve Number

Soil Conservation Service is an empirical
method of estimating EXCESS
PRECIPITATION
We can imply that precipitation minus excess
precipitation = infiltration/retention :
P - Pe = F

SCS (NRCS)
Runoff Curve Number

The basic relationships used to develop the curve number runoff

prediction technique are described here as background for
subsequent discussion. The technique originates with the
assumption that the following relationship describes the water
balance of a storm event.
F Q

S P

where F is the actual retention on the

watershed, Q is the actual direct storm
runoff, S is the potential maximum retention,
and P is the potential maximum runoff

Modifications
Pe = P - I a

Effective precipitation equals total

precipitation minus initial
abstraction
We will use effective precipitation in
place of precipitation

More Modifications

At this point in the development, SCS

redefines S to be the potential maximum
retention
SCS also defines Ia in terms of S as : Ia = 0.2S
A little substituting gives the familiar SCS
rainfall-runoff equation:
(P - 0.2S )2
Q=
(P + 0.8S)

Estimating S

The difficult part of applying this method to a

watershed is the estimation of the watersheds
potential maximum retention, S.
SCS developed the concept of the dimensionless curve
number, CN, to aid in the estimation of S.
CN is related to S as follows :

S=

1000
- 10
CN

CN ranges from 1 to 100 (not really!)

Determine CN

The Soil Conservation Service has classified over 8,500 soil

series into four hydrologic groups according to their
infiltration characteristics, and the proper group is
determined for the soil series found.
The hydrologic groups have been designated as A, B, C, and
D.
Group A is composed of soils considered to have a low
runoff potential. These soils have a high infiltration rate
even when thoroughly wetted.
Group B soils have a moderate infiltration rate when
thoroughly wetted,
while group C soils are those which have slow infiltration
rates when thoroughly wetted.
Group D soils are those which are considered to have a
high potential for runoff, since they have very slow
infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted (SCS, 1972).

Determine CN, cont.

Once the hydrologic soil group has been determined,

the curve number of the site is determined by crossreferencing land use and hydrologic condition to the
soil group - SAMPLE
Land use and treatment
or Hydrologic
practice
condition A

Fallow
Straight row
Row Crops
Straight row
Straight row
Contoured

Hydrologic soil group

B

----

77

86

91

94

Poor
Good
Poor

72
67
70

81
78
79

88
85
84

91
89
88

Initial Conditions
5-day antecedent rainfall, inches
Antecedent moisture
Dormant Season

Growing Season

Less than 0.5

Less than 1.4

II

0.5 to 1.1

1.4 to 2.1

III

Over 1.1

Over 2.1

Adjust CNs
CN for AMC II

Corresponding CNs
AMC I

AMC III

100

100

100

95

87

98

90

78

96

85

70

94

80

63

91

75

57

88

70

51

85

65

45

82

60

40

78

55

35

74

50

31

70

Sample Application
The curve number is assumed to be 70.
The cumulative runoff (c) is calculated from the
cumulative precipitation (b), using equation (4).
The potential maximum storage, S, is calculated to be S =
(1000/70) - 10 = 4.286 inches.
Using 20% as the initial abstraction percentage yields 0.2 x
4.286 = 0.8572 inches and will require that at least 0.8572
inches of precipitation must accrue before runoff may
begin.

Computations

Problems

The initial abstraction (Ia) consists of interception,

depression storage, and infiltration that occurs prior
to runoff.
It is not easy to estimate the initial abstraction for a
particular storm event.
SCS felt that there should be a connection between I a
versus S, and they attempted to develop the
relationship by plotting Ia versus S for a large
number of events on small experimental watersheds.
- Quite a SCATTER - not very successful.

These rainfall-runoff models have varied in

complexity but would have difficulty in modeling a
continuous event, as they all lack the ability to allow
the soil zones to recover when the precipitation
stops.. This leads us to model systems that are
intended for continuous simulation with updating
abilities.

SAC-SMA

The Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model

(SAC-SMA) is a conceptual model of soil moisture
accounting that uses empiricism and lumped
coefficients to attempt to mimic the physical
constraints of water movement in a natural system.

Sacramento Soil Moisture

Accounting Model

Sacramento Model Structure

E T Demand

Precipitation Input
Px

Impervious
Area

ET

PCTIM

Pervious Area

Upper Zone
EXCESS

ET

Direct Runoff

ADIMP

Impervious Area

Tension Water

Surface
Runoff

Free Water

UZTW

UZFW

UZK

ET

Interflow

Percolation
Zperc. Rexp

Total Channel
Inflow

RIVA

ET
1-PFREE

Distribution
Function

Streamflow

PFREE

Lower Zone

ET

Tension Water
LZTW

Free
P

Water
S

LZFP

LZFS

LZSK

Supplemental
Base flow

RSERV
LZPK

Primary
Baseflow

Total
Baseflow

Side

Subsurface
Discharge

Hydrograph Decomposition
Impervious and
Direct Runoff

Surface Runoff

Discharge

Interflow

Supplemental Baseflow
Primary Baseflow

Time

Sacramento Soil Moisture

Components
SAC-SMA Model
Precipitation
Impervious and Direct Runoff
Pervious

Impervious

Surface Runoff

Evaporation

Upper
Zone

Lower

Interflow

Supplemental Baseflow

Zone
Primary Baseflow

Initial Soil-moisture Parameter

Estimates By Hydrograph Analysis
Parameters for which good estimates generally can be obtained
LZPK - minimum baseflow recession

2
recession rate Kr = Q

Q1

1/ t

LZPK = 1.0 - Kr
Things to consider

Ground melt in winter

Riparian vegetation ET in summer
Extended supplemental recessions
Reservoirs - diversions
Variable primary recession

Initial Soil-moisture Parameter

Estimates By Hydrograph Analysis
(continued)

LZSK - Supplemental baseflow recession (always >

LZPK)
months

Flow that typically persists anywhere from 15 days to 3 or 4

1/ t

recession rate Kr = Q 2
Q1

LZSK = 1.0 - Kr
Things to consider

Combination of supplemental and primary is not a straight line on semi-log

plot
Better (but not necessary) to replot with primary subtracted

Initial Soil Moisture Parameters

Estimates by Hydrograph Analysis
PCTIM - minimum impervious area

Only storm runoff that occurs when UZTWC not full

(continued)

Use small rise in summer following a week or more of dry weather

PCTIM = Runoff Volume/(Rain + Melt)
Things to consider

Use a number of events, take average of ones with the smallest PCTIM
Be aware of approximate magnitude of ET-demand
Derive in conjunction with UZTWM

Initial Soil Moisture Estimates by

Hydrograph Analysis (continued)
LZFPM - lower zone free water capacity

Methods

Extension of recession
Examination of semi-log plot (Search through semi-log plot and try to approximate
the highest level of primary baseflow runoff that occurs. This is Qx.)

LZFPM = Qx/LZPK
Things to consider
This is a minimal estimate because LZFPC probably never equals LZFPM. Fills to 60 to 90+
percent capacity. Lowest percentage usually associated with most permeable soils.

Further recharge normally occurs after Qx.

Multiyear Statistical Output

MULTIYEAR STATISTICAL SUMMARY
STAT-QME
Monthly

October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
YEAR AVG
Daily rms error
(cmsd)

Simulated
mean (cmsd)

AREA (SQ KM) = 2826.5

Observed
mean (cmsd)

2.058
1.521
4.763
1.501
5.416
4.021
0.485
0.411
1.184
11.926
12.941
5.769
4.32

2.883
1.853
3.906
0.78
3.672
2.856
0.57
0.445
0.804
10.463
18.146
5.371
4.307

Percent
bias
-28.61
-17.92
21.95
92.34
47.51
40.8
-14.95
-7.64
47.27
13.98
-28.68
7.41
0.29

Monthly bias
(SIM-OBS)
(mm)
-0.782
-0.305
0.812
0.683
1.493
1.104
-0.078
-0.032
0.349
1.386
-4.932
0.365
0.063

Daily average
abs error (cmsd)

Average abs monthly

vol error (mm)

2.626

1.494

7.962

Flow interval
.00 - 1.05
1.05 - 3.27
3.27 - 10.47
10.47 - 32.71
32.71 - 104.68
104.68 - 327.14
327.14 and above

WATER YEARS 1965 TO 1972

Maximum error
(SIM-OBS)
(cmsd)
-86.957
-30.655
-122.272
26.376
85.814
55.495
2.349
1.431
-25.129
88.298
-59.106
-72.167
-122.272

Monthly volume
rms error (mm)
2.757

Number
of cases

Simulated
mean (cmsd)

Observed
mean (cmsd)

Percent bias

1769
306
281
182
75
4
No Cases

0.715
3.989
7.971
17.549
39.368
108.221

0.541
1.889
5.953
18.621
52.609
182.5

32.23
111.12
33.91
-5.76
-25.17
-40.7

Percent
average
absolute error
44.09
45.6
69.81
118.49
75.87
51.71
28.32
31.11
101.07
69.64
48.29
82.52
60.97

Correlation
Coefficient
daily flows
0.7801

Max monthly
volume error
(mm)
-4.315
-1.564
7.349
3.162
4.519
6.953
-0.238
-0.228
2.303
7.116
-10.723
-6.814
-10.723

Percent avg
abs monthly
vol error
34.72
19.33
49.21
99.92
48.36
42.72
18.76
21.25
70.03
29.62
28.68
59.86
37.28

Line of best fit

Obs = a + b*sim
a
b
.5786
.8632

Bias
(sim-obs) (mm)
0.0053
0.0642
0.0617
-0.0328
-0.4048
-2.2705

Percent
daily
rms error
238.04
138.3
254.32
433.66
271.45
210.83
59.54
44.53
349.7
128.66
73.02
184.48
184.85

Maximum
error (cmsd)
18.388
48.455
85.814
88.298
-72.167
-122.272

Percent
avg abs error
61.3
152.89
85.97
58.77
42.46
40.7

Percent
rms error
169.65
356.34
164.95
80.97
51.8
44.5

Percent monthly
vol rms vol
RMS error
64.47
34.1
80.93
183.88
76.41
97.84
23.87
28.06
123.04
39.7
33.49
79.77
68.78

Multiyear Statistical Output

(continued)

25 Largest Daily Error Values in CMSD

Month

December
July
October
February
September
August
July
March
August
December
July
September
July
February
February
August
July
September
August
August
September
February
December
July
July

Day

Year

Observed

Simulated

Error
(sim-obs)

Percent error

Percent total
sq deviation

16
9
29
13
3
2
10
3
18
31
29
12
28
11
15
4
19
6
24
12
13
14
15
16
22

1967
1968
1971
1968
1965
1968
1968
1968
1966
1965
1971
1969
1971
1968
1968
1967
1968
1970
1967
1966
1969
1968
1967
1968
1971

235
31.2
212
7.15
89.4
100
36.9
48.5
75.2
2.4
57.9
7.5
54.4
1.92
148
13
58.6
8.65
45.7
43.2
10.2
135
21.9
50.7
58.8

112.728
119.498
125.043
92.964
17.233
40.894
94.346
103.995
23.887
50.855
9.707
55.563
6.91
49.141
101.437
57.378
14.454
51.856
2.933
85.601
51.597
93.678
62.726
10.025
19.387

-122.272
88.298
-86.957
85.814
-72.167
-59.106
57.446
55.495
-51.313
48.455
-48.193
48.063
-47.49
47.221
-46.563
44.378
-44.146
43.206
-42.767
42.401
41.397
-41.322
40.826
-40.675
-39.413

-52.03
283.01
-41.02
1200.2
-80.72
-59.11
155.68
114.42
-68.24
2018.95
-83.23
640.83
-87.3
2459.42
-31.46
341.37
-75.33
499.49
-93.58
98.15
405.85
-30.61
186.42
-80.23
-67.03

9.01
4.7
4.56
4.44
3.14
2.11
1.99
1.86
1.59
1.42
1.4
1.39
1.36
1.34
1.31
1.19
1.17
1.13
1.1
1.08
1.03
1.03
1
1
0.94

Percent
reduction of
daily rms if
error equal
zero
4.61
2.38
2.31
2.24
1.58
1.06
1
0.93
0.8
0.71
0.7
0.7
0.68
0.67
0.66
0.6
0.59
0.56
0.55
0.54
0.52
0.52
0.5
0.5
0.47

12 Largest Monthly Volume Errors in mm

Month

Year

Observed

Simulated

Error
(sim-obs)

August
August
December
July
March
September
September
July
August
July
February
October

1966
1971
1965
1969
1968
1965
1970
1971
1970
1967
1968
1971

33.065
19.947
6.42
2.814
16.044
10.579
5.504
10.31
14.02
10.182
15.468
13.153

22.342
12.537
13.769
9.93
22.997
3.764
11.959
4.882
8.596
15.148
19.987
8.838

-10.723
-7.41
7.349
7.116
6.953
-6.814
6.455
-5.427
-5.424
4.966
4.519
-4.315

Percent error
-32.43
-37.15
114.48
252.9
43.34
-64.42
117.29
-52.64
-38.69
48.78
29.21
-32.81

Percent total sq
deviation
17.6
8.4
8.27
7.75
7.4
7.11
6.38
4.51
4.5
3.78
3.13
2.85

Percent reduction of
monthly rms if error
equal zero
9.23
4.29
4.22
3.95
3.77
3.62
3.24
2.28
2.28
1.91
1.57
1.44

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Rainfall-Runoff Models