Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Management
Chapter 4 Forecasting
PowerPoint presentation to accompany
Heizer/Render
Principles of Operations Management, 6e
Operations Management, 8e
2006
Prentice
Hall, Inc. Hall, Inc.
2006
Prentice
41
Outline
Global Company Profile:
Tupperware Corporation
What Is Forecasting?
Forecasting Time Horizons
The Influence of Product Life Cycle
Types Of Forecasts
42
Outline Continued
The Strategic Importance Of
Forecasting
Human Resources
Capacity
Supply-Chain Management
43
Outline Continued
Forecasting Approaches
Overview of Qualitative Methods
Overview of Quantitative Methods
44
Outline Continued
Time-series Forecasting
Decomposition of a Time Series
Nave Approach
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Adjustment
Trend Projections
Seasonal Variations in Data
Cyclical Variations in Data
45
Outline Continued
Associative Forecasting Methods:
Regression And Correlation
Analysis
Using Regression Analysis to
Forecast
Standard Error of the Estimate
Correlation Coefficients for
Regression Lines
Multiple-Regression Analysis
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
46
Outline Continued
Monitoring And Controlling
Forecasts
Adaptive Smoothing
Focus Forecasting
47
Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter, you
should be able to :
Identify or Define:
Forecasting
Types of forecasts
Time horizons
Approaches to forecasts
48
Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter, you
should be able to :
Describe or Explain:
Moving averages
Exponential smoothing
Trend projections
Regression and correlation analysis
Measures of forecast accuracy
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
49
Forecasting at Tupperware
Each of 50 profit centers around the
world is responsible for
computerized monthly, quarterly,
and 12-month sales projections
These projections are aggregated by
region, then globally, at
Tupperwares World Headquarters
Tupperware uses all techniques
discussed in text
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 10
Tupperwares
Process
4 11
4 12
Forecast by Consensus
Although inputs come from sales,
marketing, finance, and production,
final forecasts are the consensus of
all participating managers
The final step is Tupperwares
version of the jury of executive
opinion
4 13
What is Forecasting?
Process of
predicting a future
event
Underlying basis of
all business
decisions
??
Production
Inventory
Personnel
Facilities
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 14
Medium-range forecast
3 months to 3 years
Sales and production planning, budgeting
Long-range forecast
3+ years
New product planning, facility location,
research and development
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4 15
Distinguishing Differences
Medium/long range forecasts deal with
more comprehensive issues and support
management decisions regarding
planning and products, plants and
processes
Short-term forecasting usually employs
different methodologies than longer-term
forecasting
Short-term forecasts tend to be more
accurate than longer-term forecasts
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 16
4 17
Introduction
Growth
Maturity
Best period to
increase market
share
Practical to change
price or quality
image
Poor time to
change image,
price, or quality
R&D engineering is
critical
Strengthen niche
Competitive costs
become critical
Defend market
position
CD-ROM
Internet
Sales
Decline
Cost control
critical
Fax machines
Drive-through
restaurants
Color printers
Flat-screen
monitors
DVD
3 1/2
Floppy
disks
Figure 2.5
4 18
OM Strategy/Issues
Growth
Maturity
Decline
Product design
and
development
critical
Frequent
product and
process design
changes
Short production
runs
High production
costs
Limited models
Forecasting
critical
Product and
process
reliability
Competitive
product
improvements
and options
Increase capacity
Standardization
Less rapid
product changes
more minor
changes
Optimum
capacity
Increasing
stability of
process
Long production
runs
Product
improvement and
cost cutting
Little product
differentiation
Cost
minimization
Overcapacity
in the
industry
Prune line to
eliminate
items not
returning
good margin
Reduce
capacity
Attention to
quality
Shift toward
product focus
Enhance
distribution
Figure 2.5
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 19
Types of Forecasts
Economic forecasts
Address business cycle inflation rate,
money supply, housing starts, etc.
Technological forecasts
Predict rate of technological progress
Impacts development of new products
Demand forecasts
Predict sales of existing product
4 20
Strategic Importance of
Forecasting
Human Resources Hiring, training,
laying off workers
Capacity Capacity shortages can
result in undependable delivery, loss
of customers, loss of market share
Supply-Chain Management Good
supplier relations and price advance
4 21
4 22
The Realities!
Forecasts are seldom perfect
Most techniques assume an
underlying stability in the system
Product family and aggregated
forecasts are more accurate than
individual product forecasts
4 23
Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
Used when situation is vague
and little data exist
New products
New technology
4 24
Forecasting Approaches
Quantitative Methods
Used when situation is stable and
historical data exist
Existing products
Current technology
4 25
Overview of Qualitative
Methods
Jury of executive opinion
Pool opinions of high-level
executives, sometimes augment by
statistical models
Delphi method
Panel of experts, queried iteratively
4 26
Overview of Qualitative
Methods
Sales force composite
Estimates from individual
salespersons are reviewed for
reasonableness, then aggregated
4 27
4 28
4 29
Delphi Method
Iterative group
process,
continues until
consensus is
reached
Staff
(Administering
3 types of
survey)
participants
Decision makers
Staff
Respondents
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Decision Makers
(Evaluate
responses and
make decisions)
Respondents
(People who can
make valuable
judgments)
4 30
4 31
Overview of Quantitative
Approaches
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
3. Exponential
smoothing
Time-Series
Models
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Associative
Model
4 32
4 33
Cyclical
Seasonal
Random
4 34
Components of Demand
Trend
component
Seasonal peaks
Actual
demand
Random
variation
|
1
|
2
|
3
Year
Average
demand over
four years
|
4
Figure 4.1
4 35
Trend Component
Persistent, overall upward or
downward pattern
Changes due to population,
technology, age, culture, etc.
Typically several years
duration
4 36
Seasonal Component
Regular pattern of up and
down fluctuations
Due to weather, customs, etc.
Occurs within a single year
Period
Length
Number of
Seasons
Week
Month
Month
Year
Year
Year
Day
Week
Day
Quarter
Month
Week
7
4-4.5
28-31
4
12
52
4 37
Cyclical Component
Repeating up and down movements
Affected by business cycle,
political, and economic factors
Multiple years duration
Often causal or
associative
relationships
0
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10
15
20
4 38
Random Component
Erratic, unsystematic, residual
fluctuations
Due to random variation or
unforeseen events
Short duration and
nonrepeating
M
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F
4 39
Naive Approach
Assumes demand in next period is
the same as demand in most
recent period
e.g., If May sales were 48, then June
sales will be 48
4 40
4 41
Actual
Shed Sales
10
12
13
16
19
23
26
3-Month
Moving Average
4 42
Shed Sales
Moving
Average
Forecast
Actual
Sales
|
J
|
F
|
M
|
A
|
M
|
J
|
J
|
A
|
S
|
O
|
N
|
D
4 43
4 44
Weights Applied
Period
3
Last
month
Weighted Moving
Average
2
1
6
Month
Actual
Shed Sales
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
10
12
13
16
19
23
26
3-Month Weighted
Moving Average
4 46
30
Sales demand
25
20
Actual
sales
15
Moving
average
10
5
|
Figure 4.2
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F
|
M
|
A
|
M
|
J
|
J
|
A
|
S
|
O
|
N
|
D
4 47
Exponential Smoothing
Form of weighted moving average
Weights decline exponentially
Most recent data weighted most
4 48
Exponential Smoothing
New forecast = last periods forecast
+ (last periods actual demand
last periods forecast)
Ft = Ft 1 + (At 1 - Ft 1)
where
Ft = new forecast
Ft 1 = previous forecast
= smoothing (or weighting)
constant (0 1)
4 49
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
4 50
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
New forecast = 142 + .2(153 142)
4 51
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
New forecast = 142 + .2(153 142)
= 142 + 2.2
= 144.2 144 cars
4 52
Effect of
Smoothing Constants
Weight Assigned to
Smoothing
Constant
Most
Recent
Period
( )
= .1
.1
.09
.081
.073
.066
= .5
.5
.25
.125
.063
.031
4 53
Impact of Different
225
Demand
= .5
Actual
demand
200
175
150
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
= .1
|
7
|
8
|
9
Quarter
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Choosing
The objective is to obtain the most
accurate forecast no matter the
technique
We generally do this by selecting the
model that gives us the lowest forecast
error
Forecast error = Actual demand - Forecast value
= At - Ft
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
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4 56
i=1
4 57
Comparison of Forecast
Error
Quarter
Actual
Tonnage
Unloaded
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .10
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .10
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
180
168
159
175
190
205
180
182
175
176
175
173
173
175
178
178
5
8
16
2
17
30
2
4
84
175
178
173
166
170
180
193
186
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5
10
14
9
20
25
13
4
100
4 58
Comparison of Forecast
Error
|deviations|
MADActual
=
Quarter
Tonage
Unloaded
Rounded
Forecast
n
with
= .10
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .10
For
=
.10
1
180
175
2
168 = 84/8
176
= 10.50
3
4 For
5
6
7
8
159
175
175
= .50 173
190
173
205 = 100/8
175 =
180
178
182
178
5
8
16
2
17
12.5030
2
4
84
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
178
173
166
170
180
193
186
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5
10
14
9
20
25
13
4
100
4 59
Comparison of Forecast
Error
(forecast errors)
2
MSE = Actual
Quarter
Tonage
Unloaded
Rounded
Forecast
n
with
= .10
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .10
For
=
.10
1
180
175
5
2
168
176
= 1,558/8
= 194.758
3
4 For
5
6
7
8
159
175
175
= .50 173
190
173
= 1,612/8
=
205
175
180
178
182
178
16
2
17
201.50
30
2
4
84
MAD
10.50
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
178
173
166
170
180
193
186
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5
10
14
9
20
25
13
4
100
12.50
4 60
Comparison of Forecast
n
Error|/actual
100 |deviation
i
i =Rounded
1
Absolute
MAPE =Actual
Forecast n Deviation
Tonage
with
for
Quarter Unloaded
= .10
= .10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
For 180
= .10 175
5
168
176
8
= 45.62/8
= 5.70%
159
For 175
=
190
205
180
182
175
.50 173
173
= 54.8/8
175
178
178
MAD
MSE
16
2
17
= 6.85%
30
2
4
84
10.50
194.75
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
178
173
166
170
180
193
186
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5
10
14
9
20
25
13
4
100
12.50
201.50
4 61
Comparison of Forecast
Error
Quarter
Actual
Tonnage
Unloaded
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
180
168
159
175
190
205
180
182
175
176
175
173
173
175
178
178
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .10
5
8
16
2
17
30
2
4
84
10.50
194.75
5.70%
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
178
173
166
170
180
193
186
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5
10
14
9
20
25
13
4
100
12.50
201.50
6.85%
4 62
exponentially
smoothed (Ft) + (Tt)
forecast
exponentially
smoothed
trend
4 63
4 64
Actual
Demand (At)
Smoothed
Forecast, Ft
Smoothed
Trend, Tt
Forecast
Including
Trend, FITt
12
17
20
19
24
21
31
28
36
11
13.00
Table 4.1
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Actual
Demand (At)
Smoothed
Forecast, Ft
Smoothed
Trend, Tt
Forecast
Including
Trend, FITt
12
17
20
19
24
21
31
28
36
11
13.00
Table 4.1
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4 66
Actual
Demand (At)
Smoothed
Forecast, Ft
Smoothed
Trend, Tt
Forecast
Including
Trend, FITt
12
17
20
19
24
21
31
28
36
11
12.80
13.00
Table 4.1
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Actual
Demand (At)
Smoothed
Forecast, Ft
Smoothed
Trend, Tt
12
17
20
19
24
21
31
28
36
11
12.80
2
1.92
Forecast
Including
Trend, FITt
13.00
Table 4.1
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Actual
Demand (At)
Smoothed
Forecast, Ft
Smoothed
Trend, Tt
Forecast
Including
Trend, FITt
12
17
20
19
24
21
31
28
36
11
12.80
15.18
17.82
19.91
22.51
24.11
27.14
29.28
32.48
2
1.92
2.10
2.32
2.23
2.38
2.07
2.45
2.32
2.68
13.00
14.72
17.28
20.14
22.14
24.89
26.18
29.59
31.60
35.16
Table 4.1
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 69
Product demand
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
Time (month)
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|
7
|
8
|
9
Figure 4.3
4 70
Trend Projections
Fitting a trend line to historical data points
to project into the medium-to-long-range
Linear trends can be found using the least
squares technique
y^ = a + bx
^
where y
= computed value of
the variable to be predicted
(dependent variable)
a
= y-axis intercept
b
= slope of the regression line
x
= the independent variable
4 71
Deviation7
Deviation5
Deviation3
Deviation4
Deviation1
Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
Time period
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Deviation6
Figure 4.4
4 72
Deviation7
Deviation5
Deviation3
Deviation1
Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
Time period
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Deviation6
Figure 4.4
4 73
4 74
Time
Period (x)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
x = 28
x=4
Electrical Power
Demand
74
79
80
90
105
142
122
y = 692
y = 98.86
x2
xy
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
x2 = 140
74
158
240
360
525
852
854
xy = 3,063
3,063 - (7)(4)(98.86)
xy - nxy
b=
=
= 10.54
140 - (7)(42)
x2 - nx2
a = y - bx = 98.86 - 10.54(4) = 56.70
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 75
Time
Period (x)
Electrical Power
Demand
x2
xy
1999
1
74
1
2000
2
79
4
line is 80
2001The trend
3
9
2002
4
90
16
2003
105
25
y^ 5= 56.70 + 10.54x
2004
6
142
36
2005
7
122
49
x = 28
y = 692
x2 = 140
x=4
y = 98.86
74
158
240
360
525
852
854
xy = 3,063
3,063 - (7)(4)(98.86)
xy - nxy
b = x2 - nx2 =
= 10.54
140 - (7)(42)
a = y - bx = 98.86 - 10.54(4) = 56.70
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 76
Power demand
Trend line,
y^ = 56.70 + 10.54x
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
Year
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
4 77
4 79
Demand
2003 2004 2005
80
70
80
90
113
110
100
88
85
77
75
82
85
85
93
95
125
115
102
102
90
78
72
78
105
85
82
115
131
120
113
110
95
85
83
80
Average
2003-2005
Average
Monthly
90
80
85
100
123
115
105
100
90
80
80
80
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
Seasonal
Index
4 80
Demand
2003 2004 2005
Average
2003-2005
Average
Monthly
Jan
80
85 105
90
94
Feb
70
85
85
80
94
2003-2005
Mar
80
93 average
82
85 monthly demand
94
Seasonal index =
demand
Apr
90
95 115 average monthly
100
94
May
113 125= 90/94
131 = .957 123
94
Jun
110 115 120
115
94
Jul
100 102 113
105
94
Aug
88 102 110
100
94
Sept
85
90
95
90
94
Oct
77
78
85
80
94
Nov
75
72
83
80
94
Dec
82
78
80
80
94
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Seasonal
Index
0.957
4 81
Demand
2003 2004 2005
80
70
80
90
113
110
100
88
85
77
75
82
85
85
93
95
125
115
102
102
90
78
72
78
105
85
82
115
131
120
113
110
95
85
83
80
Average
2003-2005
Average
Monthly
Seasonal
Index
90
80
85
100
123
115
105
100
90
80
80
80
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
0.957
0.851
0.904
1.064
1.309
1.223
1.117
1.064
0.957
0.851
0.851
0.851
4 82
Demand
2003 2004 2005
Average
2003-2005
Average
Monthly
80
85 105
90
94
for802006
70
85 Forecast
85
94
80
93
82
85
94
annual demand
= 1,200
90Expected
95 115
100
94
113 125 131
123
94
110 115 120 1,200 115
94
Jan
x .957 = 96
100 102 113 12
105
94
88 102 110 1,200 100
94
85
90
Feb 95
x90
.851 = 85 94
12
77
78
85
80
94
75
72
83
80
94
82
78
80
80
94
Seasonal
Index
0.957
0.851
0.904
1.064
1.309
1.223
1.117
1.064
0.957
0.851
0.851
0.851
4 83
140
130
Demand
120
110
100
90
80
70
|
J
|
F
|
M
|
A
|
M
|
J
|
J
|
A
|
S
|
O
|
N
|
D
Time
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Inpatient Days
10,000
9,800
9,600
9,400
9573
9530
9551
9659
9616
9594
9637
9745
9702
9680
9723
9766
9,200
9,000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
Figure 4.6
4 85
1.06
1.04 1.04
1.02
1.02
1.00
0.94
0.92
1.01
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.96
1.03
1.04
0.98
0.99
0.97
0.97
0.96
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
Figure 4.7
4 86
Inpatient Days
10,000
9,800
10068
9949
9911
9764
9,600
9572
9,400
9,200
9,000
9724
9691
9520 9542
9265
9411
9355
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
Figure 4.8
4 87
Associative Forecasting
Used when changes in one or more
independent variables can be used to predict
the changes in the dependent variable
Most common technique is linear
regression analysis
We apply this technique just as we did
in the time series example
4 88
Associative Forecasting
Forecasting an outcome based on predictor
variables using the least squares technique
y^ = a + bx
^
where y
= computed value of
the variable to be predicted
(dependent variable)
a
= y-axis intercept
b
= slope of the regression line
x
= the independent variable
though to predict the value of the
dependent variable
4 89
Associative Forecasting
Example
Local Payroll
($000,000,000), x
1
3
4
4.0
2
3.0
1
7
2.0
Sales
Sales
($000,000), y
2.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
3.5
1.0
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
|
3 4
5 6
Area payroll
|
7
4 90
Associative Forecasting
Example
Sales, y
2.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
3.5
y = 15.0
Payroll, x
x2
1
1
3
9
4
16
2
4
1
1
7
49
x = 18
x2 = 80
x = x/6 = 18/6 = 3
y = y/6 = 15/6 = 2.5
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
b=
xy - nxy
x2 - nx2
xy
2.0
9.0
10.0
4.0
2.0
24.5
xy = 51.5
51.5 - (6)(3)(2.5)
80 - (6)(32)
= .25
Associative Forecasting
Example
Sales
y^ = 1.75 + .25x
2.0
1.0
0
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
|
3 4
5 6
Area payroll
|
7
4 92
Sales
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
|
3 4
5 6
Area payroll
|
7
4 93
y
=
point
(y - yc)2
n-2
y-value of each data
yc
=
computed value of
the dependent variable, from the
regression equation
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
n
=
points
number of data
4 94
y2 - ay - bxy
n-2
4 95
y2 - ay - bxy
=
n-2
Sy,x = .306
4.0
Sales
3.25
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
|
3 4
5 6
Area payroll
|
7
4 96
Correlation
How strong is the linear
relationship between the
variables?
Correlation does not necessarily
imply causality!
Coefficient of correlation, r,
measures degree of association
Values range from -1 to +1
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 97
Correlation Coefficient
r=
n xy - x y
[n x2 - ( x)2][n y2 - ( y)2]
4 98
Correlation Coefficient
y
r=
nxy - xy
[nx2 - (x)2][ny2 - (y)2]
(b) Positive
correlation:
0<r<1
(c) No correlation:
r=0
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
Correlation
Coefficient of Determination, r2,
measures the percent of change in
y predicted by the change in x
Values range from 0 to 1
Easy to interpret
4 100
Multiple Regression
Analysis
If more than one independent variable is to be
used in the model, linear regression can be
extended to multiple regression to
accommodate several independent variables
y^ = a + b1x1 + b2x2
4 101
Multiple Regression
Analysis
In the Nodel example, including interest rates in
the model gives the new equation:
4 102
4 103
4 104
Tracking Signal
Signal exceeding limit
Tracking signal
+
0 MADs
Acceptable
range
4 105
1
2
3
4
5
6
90
95
115
100
125
140
Forecast
Demand
Error
RSFE
Absolute
Forecast
Error
100
100
100
110
110
110
-10
-5
+15
-10
+15
+30
-10
-15
0
-10
+5
+35
10
5
15
10
15
30
Cumulative
Absolute
Forecast
Error
MAD
10
15
30
40
55
85
10.0
7.5
10.0
10.0
11.0
14.2
4 106
1
2
3
4
5
6
Tracking
Actual Signal
Forecast
Demand
Demand Error
(RSFE/MAD)
RSFE
Absolute
Forecast
Error
90-10/10
100= -1 -10
95
-15/7.5
100= -2 -5
115 0/10
100
= 0 +15
100-10/10
110= -1 -10
125
+5/11110
= +0.5+15
140
+35/14.2
110= +2.5
+30
-10
-15
0
-10
+5
+35
10
5
15
10
15
30
Cumulative
Absolute
Forecast
Error
MAD
10
15
30
40
55
85
10.0
7.5
10.0
10.0
11.0
14.2
4 107
Adaptive Forecasting
Its possible to use the computer to
continually monitor forecast error and
adjust the values of the and
coefficients used in exponential
smoothing to continually minimize
forecast error
This technique is called adaptive
smoothing
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 108
Focus Forecasting
Developed at American Hardware Supply,
focus forecasting is based on two principles:
1. Sophisticated forecasting models are not
always better than simple models
2. There is no single techniques that should
be used for all products or services
This approach uses historical data to test
multiple forecasting models for individual items
The forecasting model with the lowest error is
then used to forecast the next demand
2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
4 109
4 110
20%
15%
10%
5%
11-12
1-2
12-1
(Lunchtime)
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
7-8
6-7
(Dinnertime)
Hour of day
8-9
9-10
10-11
Figure 4.12
4 111