Professional Documents
Culture Documents
and Applications
Dr. E. A. Elsayed
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
Rutgers University
(elsayed@rci.rutgers.edu)
Reliability Engineering
Outline
Reliability definition
Reliability estimation
System reliability calculations
Reliability Importance
One of the most important characteristics of a product, it
is a measure of its performance with time (Transatlantic
and Transpacific cables)
Products recalls are common (only after time elapses). In
October 2006, the Sony Corporation recalled up to 9.6
million of its personal computer batteries
Products are discontinued because of fatal accidents
(Pinto, Concord)
Medical devices and organs (reliability of artificial organs)
3
Reliability Importance
Business data
R e lia b ility
M a x i m u m R e li a b i li t y le v e l
T im e
5
F a ilu re R a te
E a rly F a ilu re s
C o n s ta n t
F a ilu re R a te
T im e
In c r e a s in g
F a ilu re
R a te
Reliability Definitions
Reliability is a time dependent characteristic.
It can only be determined after an elapsed time but
can be predicted at any time.
It is the probability that a product or service will
operate properly for a specified period of time (design
life) under the design operating conditions without
failure.
1 n
MTTF ti
n i 1
1
2 is better than 1?
R(t)
Time t
10
11
Basic Calculations
Suppose n0 identical units are subjected to a
test. During the interval (t, t+t), we observed
nf(t) failed components. Let ns(t) be the
surviving components at time t, then the MTTF,
failure density, hazard rate, and reliability at
time t are:
n0
MTTF
t
i 1
n0
n f (t )
(t )
,
ns (t )t
f (t ) n f (t )
n0 t
ns (t )
R(t ) Pr (T t )
n0
13
Failures in the
interval
0-1000
1001-2000
2001-3000
3001-4000
4001-5000
5001-6000
6001-7000
100
40
20
15
10
8
7
Total
200
14
Calculations
Time
Interval
(Hours)
Failures
in the
interval
0-1000
1001-2000
2001-3000
3001-4000
4001-5000
5001-6000
6001-7000
100
40
20
15
10
8
7
Total
200
15
10-4
x 103
Time in hours
16
10-4
103
Time in Hours
17
Calculations
Time
Interval
(Hours)
Failures
in the
interval
0-1000
1001-2000
2001-3000
3001-4000
4001-5000
5001-6000
6001-7000
Total
100
40
20
15
10
8
7
200
18
x 103
Time in hours
19
Exponential Distribution
Definition
(t )
(t)
0, t 0
Time
f (t ) exp(t )
R(t ) exp(t ) 1 F (t )
20
1
MTTF
5 106 Failures/hr
MTTF=200,000 hrs or 20 years
1
Variance 2
1
Median life ( ln2 )
t1 t2 ... ti 1 ti ti 1 ... tn 1 tn
22
i
n 1
i 0.3
n 0.4
i 3 /8
n 1/ 4
23
F (ti )
n 1
n 1 i
R (ti )
n 1
ti t ti 1
i 0,1, 2,..., n
1
ti .(n 1)
ti ti 1 ti
24
(ti )
Example:
Recorded failure times for a sample of 9 units are
observed at t=70, 150, 250, 360, 485, 650, 855,
1130, 1540. Determine F(t), R(t), f(t), ( t ) ,H(t)
25
Calculations
t(i+1) F=i/10 R=(10-i)/10
f=0.1/t
=1/(t.(10i))
t (i)
H(t)
70
0.001429
0.001429
70
150
0.1
0.9
0.001250
0.001389
0.10536052
150
250
0.2
0.8
0.001000
0.001250
0.22314355
250
360
0.3
0.7
0.000909
0.001299
0.35667494
360
485
0.4
0.6
0.000800
0.001333
0.51082562
485
650
0.5
0.5
0.000606
0.001212
0.69314718
650
855
0.6
0.4
0.000488
0.001220
0.91629073
855
1130
0.7
0.3
0.000364
0.001212
1.2039728
1130
1540
0.8
0.2
0.000244
0.001220
1.60943791
1540
0.9
0.1
2.30258509
26
Reliability Function
27
28
Failure Rate
Constant
29
30
Input Data
31
32
Exponential Fit
33
Exponential Analysis
35
Failure Rate
1
Constant Failure
Rate Region
2
Early Life
Region
ABC
Module
Wear-Out
Region
Time t
36
Failure Rate
Burn-in:
According to MIL-STD-883C,
burn-in is a test performed to
screen or eliminate marginal
components with inherent
defects or defects resulting
from manufacturing process.
Early Life
Region
Time t 37
1 2 3 5 10 15 22 28
10.75 hours
8
6
38
Before burn-in
After burn-in
Company
MTTF=5000 hours
Company
39
Hazard Rate
Why?
Wear-Out
Region
Time t
40
Weibull Model
Definition
f (t )
t
exp
t
R(t ) exp
1 F (t )
0, 0, t 0
(t ) f (t ) / R(t )
41
Var
t1/ et dt (1
1
)
(1 2 ) (1 1 )
Weibull Model
43
44
45
46
Normal Distribution
47
Weibull Model
Input Data
Weibull Fit
Weibull Analysis
Weibull Analysis
Hazard Rate
Hazard rate:
Constant Failure
Rate Region
0 1
Early Life
Region
(t ) f (t ) / R(t )
Wear-Out
Region
Time t
61
t
F (t ) 1 R(t ) 1 exp
1
ln ln
ln t ln
1 F (t )
i 0.3
F (ti )
n 0.4
62
P ro b a b ility
0.99
0.96
0.90
0.75
0.50
0.632
0.25
0.10
0.05
0.02
0.01
-5
10
Data
10
10
63