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Statistical Inference:

A Review of Key Points


Using the Sampling Distribution

Sampling Error

The absolute value difference between an


estimate and the corresponding population
parameter is called the sampling error.
Sampling error is the result of using a subset
of the population (the sample), and not the
entire population to develop estimates.
The sampling errors are:
| x for
| sample mean

| s | for sample standard deviation


| p for
p | sample proportion

Example: ESPN
ESPN annually receives roughly 5,500 (!)
applications
from prospective student interns. The
application
forms contain a variety of information including
the
individuals scholastic aptitude test (SAT) score
and
the state the applicant lives in.
The director of interns would like to know, at
least roughly, the following information:
the average SAT score for the applicants,
and
the proportion of applicants that are in-state
residents.
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Example: ESPN

Alternative #1: Take a Census of ALL 5,500


Applicants
SAT Scores
Population Mean xi

990
5,500

Population Standard
2
Deviation
(
x

)
i

80
5,500
In-State Applicants
Population Proportion
3,960
p

5,500

.72
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Example: ESPN

Alternative #2: Take a SAMPLE of 50


Applicants

Example: ESPN

Alternative #2: Take a SAMPLE of 50


Applicants
What are some reasons for having to use a
sample instead of the entire population of
data?
1.
2.
3.
4.

Example: ESPN

Suppose we take one sample of 50


Point Estimates applications. What does it tell us?
x as Point Estimator of SAT score
xi 49 , 850
x

997
50
50
s asthe
Point
Estimator
of

Notice
sampling
errors
from
2
this one
of 50.

x
)
277 , 097
( xsample
i
s

75. 2
49
49

(p=.72) % in-state
p 34 50 . 68

as Point Estimator of p

Note: A different sample would have given different


point estimates. So, many different samples means
many different estimates.
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Sampling Distributions

Next Topic is Sampling Distributions

Why do we cover SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS?


Practical reason
Use to tell us about size of sampling errors

What is a Sampling Distributionxof

Example
a) estimating average height of UCF
students
b) row #1/sample #1 = 54
c) row #2/sample #2 = 55
d) row #3/sample #3 = 69 (!)
e) etc
f) DISTRIBUTION OF ESTIMATES
(1)44, 55, 57, 58, . . ., 63, 65,
69

Distribution of Average Heights


f(x)

Each sample gives one value

44

x
69

Point: Taking many samples yields a


distribution of x values
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Distribution of Average Heights


f(x)

Each sample gives one value

44

x
69

Point: This is the sampling distribution


of x values
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Sampling Distribution of

The sampling distribution xof


is the probability distribution of all
possiblex values of from all possible
samples of a certain size

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Sampling Distribution of

Part 1. The MEAN of the sampling


distribution

We want the mean value of all values =


E( ) =
where:
NOTICE
= the population
mean and
xi

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Sampling Distribution of

Part 2. The STANDARD DEVIATION of the


sampling distribution

Standard Deviation of
x

x
n

standard error of the mean

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Sampling Distribution of

Part 3. The SHAPE of the sampling


distribution

If we use a large (n > 30) simple random


sample,
x
the CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM enables us to
conclude that the sampling distribution of
can be approximated by a NORMAL
probability distribution.

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Sampling Distribution of

Now have completely


described sampling
_
distribution ofx
Use estimator such that x E( ) =
Calculate standard error of the mean
Determine shape of sampling distribution
Likely normal

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Example: ESPN

x
Sampling Distribution of

for the SAT Scores

(note)

NOTE THIS

80

11. 3
n
50

E(x )

NOTE: two possible sources for value of :


1. Know it from population
2. Estimate it using sample standard deviation
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Example: ESPN

x
Sampling Distribution of
for the SAT Scores
What is the probability that
a simple random sample of 50 applicants (n
= 50)
will provide an estimate of the population
mean SAT score (
within (plus or minus) 10 of ?
Note: assume that dont know value of

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Example: ESPN
x
Sampling Distribution of
n = 50

for the SAT Scores


Sampling
distribution
of x

Prob. = Area = ??

Prob. = Area = ??

x
- 10

+ 10

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Example: ESPN(cont.)
NOTE:
Pop std. dev was calculated = 80 (previous
slide)
x
Std. dev. of was calculated = 11.3
(previous slide)
x
USE STD. DEV. OF

= 11.3

Here are the steps toxfind the answer:


Step (1) convert
the value of ( 10) to a Zx
value:
z1= ( 10) - / 11.3 = -10 / 11.3 = -0.88

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Example: ESPN(cont.)
NOTE:
Pop std. dev was calculated = 80 (previous
slide)
x
Std. dev. of was calculated = 11.3
(previous slide)
x
USE STD. DEV. OF

= 11.3

Here are the steps toxfind the answer:


Step (2) convert
the value of ( + 10) to a Zx
value:
z1= ( + 10) - / 11.3 = 10 / 11.3 = 0.88

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Example: ESPN(cont.)
HINT: draw picture
Step (3) P(-0.88 < Z < 0.88) is area
between
z = - 0.88 and z = 0.88
this area is sum of two areas:
&

area between z = - 0.88 & z =0 (area A1)


area between z = 0 & z = 0.88 (area A2)

Step (4) P(-0.88 < Z < 0.88)


= area A1 + area A2
= 0.3106 + 0.3106 = 0.6212
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Example: ESPN(cont.)
HINT: draw picture
Step (4) P(-0.88 < Z < 0.88) = area A1 +
area A2
= 0.3106 + 0.3106
= 0.6212
xThis answer means there is 62.12 %
probability that
will be betweenx( 10) & ( + 10)
(or 62.12 % of all values fall between (
10) & ( + 10) - from n = 50 sample).
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Example: ESPN

Sampling Distribution of
x
from n = 50 sample

for the SAT Scores


Sampling
distribution
of x

Prob. = Area = .3106

Prob. = Area = .3106

- 10

+ 10

x
There is 62.12% probability that ONE
will be between ( 10) & ( + 10) with n
= 50
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Sampling Distribution of

What is the probability that a simple


random sample of 50 applicants will
provide an estimate of the population mean
SAT score that is within (plus or minus) 10
of the actual population
x mean ?
62.12 % probability that
falls between

80
( 10) & ( + 10)
x

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What if n = 256?
n
256

x
95.44 % probability that
( 10) & ( + 10)

falls between

(probability is from table)


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