Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Sampling Error
Example: ESPN
ESPN annually receives roughly 5,500 (!)
applications
from prospective student interns. The
application
forms contain a variety of information including
the
individuals scholastic aptitude test (SAT) score
and
the state the applicant lives in.
The director of interns would like to know, at
least roughly, the following information:
the average SAT score for the applicants,
and
the proportion of applicants that are in-state
residents.
3
Example: ESPN
990
5,500
Population Standard
2
Deviation
(
x
)
i
80
5,500
In-State Applicants
Population Proportion
3,960
p
5,500
.72
4
Example: ESPN
Example: ESPN
Example: ESPN
997
50
50
s asthe
Point
Estimator
of
Notice
sampling
errors
from
2
this one
of 50.
x
)
277 , 097
( xsample
i
s
75. 2
49
49
(p=.72) % in-state
p 34 50 . 68
as Point Estimator of p
Sampling Distributions
Example
a) estimating average height of UCF
students
b) row #1/sample #1 = 54
c) row #2/sample #2 = 55
d) row #3/sample #3 = 69 (!)
e) etc
f) DISTRIBUTION OF ESTIMATES
(1)44, 55, 57, 58, . . ., 63, 65,
69
44
x
69
44
x
69
Sampling Distribution of
12
Sampling Distribution of
13
Sampling Distribution of
Standard Deviation of
x
x
n
14
Sampling Distribution of
15
Sampling Distribution of
16
Example: ESPN
x
Sampling Distribution of
(note)
NOTE THIS
80
11. 3
n
50
E(x )
Example: ESPN
x
Sampling Distribution of
for the SAT Scores
What is the probability that
a simple random sample of 50 applicants (n
= 50)
will provide an estimate of the population
mean SAT score (
within (plus or minus) 10 of ?
Note: assume that dont know value of
18
Example: ESPN
x
Sampling Distribution of
n = 50
Prob. = Area = ??
Prob. = Area = ??
x
- 10
+ 10
19
Example: ESPN(cont.)
NOTE:
Pop std. dev was calculated = 80 (previous
slide)
x
Std. dev. of was calculated = 11.3
(previous slide)
x
USE STD. DEV. OF
= 11.3
20
Example: ESPN(cont.)
NOTE:
Pop std. dev was calculated = 80 (previous
slide)
x
Std. dev. of was calculated = 11.3
(previous slide)
x
USE STD. DEV. OF
= 11.3
21
Example: ESPN(cont.)
HINT: draw picture
Step (3) P(-0.88 < Z < 0.88) is area
between
z = - 0.88 and z = 0.88
this area is sum of two areas:
&
Example: ESPN(cont.)
HINT: draw picture
Step (4) P(-0.88 < Z < 0.88) = area A1 +
area A2
= 0.3106 + 0.3106
= 0.6212
xThis answer means there is 62.12 %
probability that
will be betweenx( 10) & ( + 10)
(or 62.12 % of all values fall between (
10) & ( + 10) - from n = 50 sample).
23
Example: ESPN
Sampling Distribution of
x
from n = 50 sample
- 10
+ 10
x
There is 62.12% probability that ONE
will be between ( 10) & ( + 10) with n
= 50
24
Sampling Distribution of
80
( 10) & ( + 10)
x
5
What if n = 256?
n
256
x
95.44 % probability that
( 10) & ( + 10)
falls between