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CASE FACT
The Problem
Phil
Stant
on
Ron
Adam
s
QUESTIONS 1
1. Comment on the forecasting
system being used in Yankee.
Suggest changes orimprovements
that you believe are justified.
Suggestion:
Implementation of quantitative
method like seasonality
Forecasting figures are
technique with linear trend
based on the meetings with
equation
managers
No mathematical technique
is involved
Benefits: quick forecast &
advantage of experience of
each manager
Suggestion:
Suggestion:
1.Lack of communication between Production and
Marketing should develop a forecasting
Marketing department
system that reflect both past shortages
and future expected demands.
QUESTIONS 2
2. Develop your own forecast for
bow rakes for each month of the
next year (year 5).Justify your
forecast and the method you used.
FORECASTING
APPROACH
Qualitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
Exponential smooting
- Moving
-
Linear
-
90000
67500
45000
22500
Month
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
JAN 55,220
39,875
32,180
62,377
FEB 57,350
64,128
38,600
66,501
MAR 15,445
47,653
25,020
31,404
APR 27,776
43,050
51,300
36,504
MAY 21,408
39,359
31,790
16,888
JUN 17,118
10,317
32,100
18,909
700000
560000
420000
Value Title
280000
140000
0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
( Linear Pattern)
Linear Trend 5
- LINEAR
ty
62,377
62,377
66,501
266,004
31,404
282,636
16
36,504
584,064
25
16,888
422,200
36
18,909
680,724
49
35,500
1,739,500
64
51,250
3,280,000
81
34,443
2,789,883
10
100
68,088
6,808,800
11
121
68,175
8,249,175
SEASONAL
VARIATION
90000
67500
1
2
3
4
45000
22500
0
1
10
11
12
SEASONAL INDEX
DEMAND
Mon
th
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Avara
Year
Avera ge Seas
5
ge 1- Mont onal Forca
4
hly Index st