Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Service Adoption
20142019
Gonzalo Valverde
Director Service Providers & Enterprise Argentina, Uruguay y Paraguay.
May 2015
FIXED
Service Adoption
Forecast
RESIDENTIAL
MOBILE
MOBILE
BUSINESS
VNI
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
IP Broadband
Growth
Drivers
More Internet
Users
More Devices &
Connections
Faster Broadband
Speeds
More Video
Viewing
2014
2019
2.8 Billion
3.9 Billion
2014
2019
14.2 Billion
24.4 Billion
2014
2019
20.3 Mbps
42.5 Mbps
2014
2019
67% of
Traffic
80% of
Traffic
IP Broadband
Growth
Drivers
More Internet
Users
More Devices &
Connections
Faster Broadband
Speeds
More Video
Viewing
2014
2019
2014
2019
1.2 Billion
1.9 Billion
2014
2019
7.2 Mbps
17 Mbps
2014
2019
61% of
Traffic
82% of
Traffic
Overview
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
34.2%
35.6%
Projected in 2010
Actual
30%
Compound
Annual
Growth Rate
(CAGR)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2009-2014 CAGR
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20142019
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
167,972,892,365.9
140,000,000,000
135,488,580,765.3
120,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
Exabytes
80,000,000,000
per Month
108,998,838,457.9
88,442,868,703.8
72,433,677,711.9
60,000,000,000
59,850,764,107.7
40,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Rest of LATAM has the Highest Growth Rate (31%) from 2014
2019
25% CAGR 20142019
14,000,000,000 Chile (23% CAGR)
6%
9%
24%
Exabytes
per6,000,000,000
Month
27%
4,000,000,000
34%
2,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Exabytes
80,000,000,000
per
Month
5.6%
7.7%
10.0%
14.7%
29.6%
60,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
32.4%
20,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Drivers
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
10
Western Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
Latin America
371 Million by 2019
CAGR 7.4%
Asia Pacific
2.1 Billion by 2019
CAGR 8.7%
11
Western Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
Latin America
1.9 Billion by 2019
CAGR 9%
Asia Pacific
10.5 Billion by 2019
CAGR 11%
12
Western Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
2.0-fold Growth
21.8 to 43.7 Mbps
2.3-fold Growth
21.8 to 49.1 Mbps
2.0-fold Growth
22.2 to 45.3 Mbps
Latin America
2.3-fold Growth
7.2 to 16.9 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.1-fold Growth
23.2 to 48.9 Mbps
13
Latin America
82% of traffic by 2019
32% CAGR
Asia Pacific
79% of traffic by 2019
26% CAGR
14
Top Trends
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
15
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
16
CAGR 20142019
By 2019, M2M Connections Will be More Than 40% 12%
of Total
30,000,000,000
Connections
25,000,000,000
Other (4.9%,3.6%)
Tablets (3%,4%)
20,000,000,000
PCs (11%,6%)
Billions
of
15,000,000,000
Devices
TVs (11%,12%)
Non-Smartphones (32%,13%)
10,000,000,000
Smartphones (15%,19%)
5,000,000,000
0
M2M (24%,43%)
17
2,000,000,000.0
Tablets (3%,5%)
1,500,000,000.0
PCs (13%,8%)
Billions of
Devices
1,000,000,000.0
TVs (6%,14%)
Non-Smartphones (40%,14%)
Smartphones (17%,24%)
500,000,000.0
0.0
M2M (18%,31%)
18
UHD 18 Mbps
350,000,000
300,000,000
HD 7.2 Mbps
SD 2 Mbps
Connected 250,000,000
4K TV Sets
200,000,000
(M)
150,000,000
100,000,000
371,454,498
244,732,995
146,440,003
76,827,402
33,335,708
0 9,935,743
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
50,000,000
2019
19
2019
M2M Module
92
433
Smartphone
1,640
8,419
6,213
14,800
6,258
34,880
Laptop / PC
23,824
36,311
22,415
50,177
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
Tablet
20
2019
M2M Module
49
409
Smartphone
942
5,312
4,717
11,271
6,608
32,113
Laptop / PC
21,577
34,056
9,979
11,778
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
Tablet
21
4 X
Smartphone
74 X
281 X
283 X
Laptop / PC
1077 X
1013 X
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
Tablet
Monthly basic
mobile phone
data traffic
22
Other (0.1%,0.1%)
140,000,000,000
Non-Smartphones (0%,0%)
120,000,000,000
M2M (1%,3%)
100,000,000,000
Exabytes
80,000,000,000
per Month
Tablets (4%,19%)
TVs (29%,22%)
60,000,000,000
Smartphones (6%,23%)
40,000,000,000
PCs (60%,33%)
20,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
23
Other (0.05%,0.1%)
10,000,000,000
Non-Smartphones (0.08%,0.08%)
M2M (0.3%,2%)
8,000,000,000
Exabytes
per Month6,000,000,000
Tablets (5%,24%)
TVs (7%,14%)
4,000,000,000
Smartphones (4%,19%)
2,000,000,000
PCs (83%,41%)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
24
Other (0.1%,0.1%)
120,000,000,000
Non-Smartphones (0%,0%)
100,000,000,000
M2M (1%,3%)
Exabytes80,000,000,000
per Month
TVs (7%,8%)
60,000,000,000
Tablets (6%,24%)
40,000,000,000
Smartphones (8%,28%)
PCs (78%,36%)
20,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
25
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
26
Today
25%
UK 46%
US 46%
Spain 49%
Brazil 57%
6.6%
Australia 49%
27
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
28
8,000,000,000
Billions of
6,000,000,000
M2M
Connections
4,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
29
30
3,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
Petabytes
2,500,000,000
per Month
2,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
31
32
10,000,000
8,000,000
Billions of
M2M 6,000,000
Connections
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
33
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
34
35
By 2019, Time Delayed TV Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption
10%
8%
CAGR
20142019
6%
4%
2%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2019 % Adoption
Note: By 2019, the global residential fixed Internet population will be 2.4
billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 20142019
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
36
Residential Services
Implications / Opportunities
Residential Market Dynamics
More / new connections
Preference for mobility
Need to monetize
increased network
demand
Residential Opportunities
for Service Providers
Extend content / service
reach across new
devices and
connections
Partner and form new
eco-systems with OTTPs
Develop Wi-Fi / mobility
plans
Bolster service portfolio
with value-added IoE /
M2M applications
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
37
38
By 2019, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Banking & Commerce Will Have
Highest Adoption
35%
25%
CAGR
20142019
15%
5%
20%
-5%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2019 % Adoption
39
Consumer Mobile
Implications / Opportunities
Consumer Mobile
Market Dynamics
40
41
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
42
100,000,000,000
Exabytes
per80,000,000,000
Month
60,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
43
8,000,000,000
Exabytes
per 6,000,000,000
Month
4,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
44
3,000,000,000
Users/
Subscriptions
(M)
2,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,000,000,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
45
160,000,000,000
140,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
Exabytes
80,000,000,000
per Month
60,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
46
12,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
Exabytes
6,000,000,000
per Month
4,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
47
120,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
Exabytes
80,000,000,000
per Month
60,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
48
8,000,000,000
Exabytes
6,000,000,000
per Month
4,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
49
25,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
Exabytes
15,000,000,000
per Month
10,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
50
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
51
Users/
Subscriptions
(M)
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
52
Users/
Subscriptions
(M)
3,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
53
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
54
2019
20.3
42.5
North America
21.8
43.7
Western Europe
21.8
49.1
22.2
45.3
Latin America
7.2
16.9
Asia-Pacific
23.2
48.9
6.1
14.9
BY REGION
55
2019
7.2
16.9
Argentina
4.4
14.9
Brazil
8.3
18.6
Chile
13.4
27.8
Mexico
7.3
19.1
BY COUNTRY
56
2019
10.6
18.5
North America
14.3
29.0
Western Europe
13.0
20.9
11.7
22.0
Latin America
5.8
8.6
Asia-Pacific
10.3
15.6
3.9
4.7
GLOBAL
Global Mbps
BY REGION
57
1.7
3.9
North America
2.8
6.4
Western Europe
2.0
4.7
1.6
3.7
Latin America
1.4
2.9
Asia-Pacific
2.0
3.5
0.6
2.1
BY REGION
58
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
59
Surge of Hotspots
Globally, there will be
341 million hotspots by
2018
By 2018, the US leads in total number of hotspots,
followed by China and France
Europe is the continent of Wi-Fi with 50% of the
worlds Wi-Fi estate in 2014. By 2018, Asia will lead.
Today, China has 5 times more commercial Wi-Fi
hotspots than any other country
Community Wi-Fi has been driven by Europe and
then North America, but Asia will catch up in 2018
60
802.11b
11 Mbps Max
Applications
Enabled
Basic internet
Applications
Enabled
Rich Media Web
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
802.11ac
3.6 Gbps Max
Applications Enabled
High Resolution
Video
Wired Complement
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
802.11b
11 Mbps Max
802.11n
600 Mbps Max
Applications
Enabled
Email
Applications Enabled
Medium Resolution
Video
2011
2012
61
By 2019,
Two-Thirds of Total IP Traffic Will Be Wireless
180,000,000,000 Mobile Data (57.3% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (11.4% CAGR)
14%
120,000,000,000
33%
100,000,000,000
Exabytes
per
Month
80,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
17%
40,000,000,000
36%
20,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
* Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile
62
By 2019,
77% of Total LATAM IP Traffic Will Be Wireless
14,000,000,000 Mobile Data (58.9% CAGR)
12,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
16%
23%
8,000,000,000
Exabytes
per 6,000,000,000
Month
14%
4,000,000,000
47%
2,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
63
18%
100,000,000,000
19%
Exabytes
80,000,000,000
per Month
21%
60,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
42%
20,000,000,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
64
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
65
Average Hour
Busy Hour
1,000,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
66
Average Hour
80,000
Busy Hour
70,000
60,000
Traffic Rate
(Tbps)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
67
Ratio of
Busy Hour
to Average
T
Hour Traffic
i
t
l
e
4.0
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.3
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Global 2.6
APAC LATAM
2.8
2.6
NA
WE
CEE
2.3
MEA
2.6
68
Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
69
2019
Future
16 GB per month
37 GB per month
75 GB per month
2014
2019
Future
37 GB per month
91 GB per month
Average Traffic
per User
Average Traffic
per Household
70
2019
Future
15 GB per month
34 GB per month
75 GB per month
2014
2019
Future
44 GB per month
97 GB per month
Average Traffic
per User
Average Traffic
per Household
71
2,500
France
2,000
Video
Minutes
per Viewer
Canada
Indonesia
Argentina
Italy
1,500
Video
Minutes per
Viewer
Spain
U.K.
Linear (Video
Minutes per
Viewer)
Russia
Germany
1,000
Brazil
Chile
500
India
Mexico
10
U.S.
China
New Zealand
Australia
20
30
40
Fixed Broadband Speeds (Mbps)
50
60
72
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
73
Argentina IP Traffic
In Argentina, IP traffic will grow 3-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate
of 21%.
In Argentina, IP traffic will reach 1.1 Exabytes per month in 2019, up from 431 Petabytes
per month in 2014.
In Argentina's IP networks will carry 37 Petabytes per day in 2019, up from 14 Petabytes per
day in 2014.
In Argentina, IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 13.4 Exabytes in 2019, up from an
annual run rate of 5.2 Exabytes in 2014
In Argentina, IP traffic will reach 26 Gigabytes per capita in 2019, up from 10 Gigabytes per
capita in 2014.
In 2019, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross Argentina's IP networks
every 5 hours.
Cisco Confidential
74
In Argentina, the average fixed broadband speed will grow 3.4-fold from 2014 to 2019, from
4.4 Mbps to 15 Mbps.
In Argentina, the average fixed broadband speed grew 7% from 2013 to 2014, from 4.1
Mbps to 4.4 Mbps.
In Argentina, 51% of fixed broadband connections will be faster than 5 Mbps in 2019, up
from 34% today.
In Argentina, 21% of fixed broadband connections will be faster than 10 Mbps in 2019, up
from 13% today.
In Argentina, 4.1% of fixed broadband connections will be faster than 25 Mbps in 2019, up
from 3.0% today.
In Argentina, 2.2% of fixed broadband connections will be faster than 50 Mbps in 2019, up
from .5% today.
Cisco Confidential
75
In Argentina, the average mobile connection speed was 323 kbps in 2014.
In Argentina, the average mobile connection speed will grow 4-fold from 2014 to 2019,
reaching 1,228 kbps in 2019.
In Argentina, the average smartphone connection speed was 2,743 kbps in 2014.
In Argentina, the average smartphone connection speed will grow 2-fold from 2014 to 2019,
reaching 4,674 kbps in 2019.
Cisco Confidential
76
Argentina VoD
In Argentina, Ultra HD will be 7.4% of IP VOD traffic in 2019, up from 0.0% in 2014 (399.0%
CAGR).
In Argentina, HD will be 52.7% of IP VOD traffic in 2019, up from 14.9% in 2014 (75.1%
CAGR).
In Argentina, SD will be 39.9% of IP VOD traffic in 2019, compared to 85.1% in 2014 (16.9%
CAGR).
Cisco Confidential
77
In Argentina, the average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will grow 1.9-fold from 2014 to
2019, from 3.7 Mbps to 7 Mbps.
In Argentina, the average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices grew 20% from 2013 to 2014,
from 3.1 Mbps to 3.7 Mbps.
Cisco Confidential
78
In Argentina, Fixed/Wired IP traffic will grow 2-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual
growth rate of 14%
In Argentina, Fixed/Wi-Fi IP traffic will grow 3-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual
growth rate of 21%.
In Argentina, Mobile traffic will grow 7-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth
rate of 49%.
Cisco Confidential
79
Conclusion
2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
80
81
LATAM IP Traffic
82
83
84