APES: Population Dynamics &

Human Demography
Textbook Reference: chapters 9 & 12

What is a population?
A group of interbreeding individuals living in
the same place at the same time
Its good for organisms to stick together!
1. Resource availability varies
2. Help from your buddiesseeking out
resources
3. Protection
4. Hunting in packs is highly effective

What are some of the disadvantages to clumped

distribution of organisms?

Population Change

Change is due to environmental stress &

changes in environmental conditions
How can populations change?

Size: # of individuals
Density: # of individuals in a defined space
Dispersion: dependant on resource availability

Clustered, random, uniform

Population Dispersion Patterns

Determination of Population Size

Environmental Resistance: all factors that

limit pop. growth

biotic potential +
environmental
resistance: together
they determine K
Examples of limiting
factors that affect K

Examples of human dieback: Easter

Island, Ireland Potato Crop Famine

Competition
Immigration/emigration
Catastrophic events
Seasonal fluctuations in
resources
Tolerances

Limiting Factors to Population Growth

Density Dependant Factors: effects the

populations the most when closer to K

Examples: disease, famine, competition

Density Independent Factors: occurs

regardless of population size

Examples: drought, natural disasters

Types of Population Fluctuations

1.
2.
3.
4.

Stable
Irruptive
Irregular
Cyclic

1.

Fluctuates around K

2.

High peaks then crashes

3.

No pattern-chaotic

4.

Fluctuates over regular periods of

time

Lynx-Hare Cycle

Theory 1: Top Down

Control

Preys numbers controlled

by predators

Theory 2: Bottom Up
Control

prey numbers actually

controlled by food supply
Hare populations on
islands cyclical despite lack
of lynx

Reproduction Patterns
r-Selected Species

K-Selected Species

High rate of reproduction

Fewer, larger offspring

Many small offspring

Little to no parental care

High parental care/internal

development

High population growth rate

Later reproductive age

Generalists

Lower population growth rate

Early successional species

Population size stable around K

Early reproductive age

Specialists

Short lives (<1 year)

Late successional species

Opportunists: insects, weeds

Competitors: elephants, large plants

Survivorship Curves

Represents the age structure of a

population

Type I: Late loss: k-selected species;

long lives, few young, well cared for

Type II: Constant loss: fairly constant

rate of mortality at all life stages
songbirds, lizards, small mammals

Type III: Early loss: r-selected species;

many offspring, high juvenile mortality,
high survivorship after a certain
age/size

Calculating Population Change

The difference between individuals entering
and leaving a population:

Population
Change

Births
+
Immigrati
on

Deaths
+
Emigratio
n

birth rate: the number of births per thousand

people;
death rate: the number of deaths per thousand
people;
zero population growth (ZPG): occurs when
the factors that increase and decrease population
size are balanced.

Calculating Population Growth

Doubling Time & Rule of
70

The number of years it

takes to double its size
Used to calculate double
time

Growth Rate

How quickly a population is

growing or shrinking
GR= (Final-Initial) X 100
Initial

70 % growth rate =
double time

Sample Calculation

World Population in 2002 grew

by 1.8%

Deer population in 1995 = 1022

70 1.8 = 54.7 or
approximately 55 years

1022-1000/1000 X 100 =2.2%

Sample Calculation

Deer population in 1985 =1000

The Human Population Explosion

Human
population is
currently
growing
exponentiall
y.
What will
be the
ultimate
size of the
human
population?
What is
Earth's
carrying
capacity?

3 Types of Nations in the World

High income, highly developed,

industrialized countries

Middle income, moderately developed

countries

US, western Europe, Japan, Australia, New

Zealand, and Canada
20% of the worlds population, but control 80% of
the worlds wealth

Latin America, northern and western Africa,

eastern Asia, eastern Europe, and the countries of
the former USSR.

Low income countries

Eastern and central Africa, India, and central Asia

80% of the worlds population, but control only

Population Profiles:
Age Structure
Predicts future population size
Age structure refers to the proportion of the
population in each age class:
Pre-reproductive (014 years)
Reproductive

(1544 years)

Post-reproductive (45 & up)

Population Profile:
Developing Countries
Developing
countries
are
expected to
continue to
have a
pyramid
shape
through the
year 2025,
although
the age
structure
will become
somewhat
more

Population Profile:
Developed Countries
Populations
of
developed
countries
are
expected to
have an
increasingly
even age
distribution
through the
year 2025.

Population Size
The world's
ten most
populous
countries in
1998, with
projections
of
population
size in
2025.
http://www.os-c
onnect.com/pop/

The World vs. The United States

The World

Total = 7,234,326,570

4.3 births
every...........................
.......sec.
1.8 deaths
every...........................
.......sec.
Net gain of 2.4
people
every.....................
sec.

United States

Total = 320,618,725

One birth
every..............................
.... 7 s.
One death
every..............................
.... 13 s. One
international migrant
(net) every............ 36 s.
Net gain of one person
every..................... 11 s.

Human Population Change

The annual
rate of
population
increase is
generally
expressed
as a
percentage.
Note the
distribution
of growth
rates in
1998.

Fertility Rates

Replacement Level Fertility

2.1 developed countries

2.5 developing countries

Total Fertility Rate: an estimate of number of

children a women will have between 15-49
years of age
*95% of predicted growth will be in
developing countries where 1.4 billion people
live on less than $1/day

Factors Affecting Birth & Fertility Rates

Increases

Kids need to work in developing

countries

Decreases

Urbanization

Cost of raising kids

High infant mortality rates

Opportunities for women

Less than 25 y.o. when first bear child

Pensions

Religion/cultural traditions

Availability of legal abortions high

Availability of birth control high

Crude Death Rates

Decreased worldwide due to:

Fewer infant deaths

Longer lives

Why?

Better food and distribution

Better nutrition
Better medical and public health technology

Antibiotics and vaccinations

Better sanitation
Cleaner water

Crude Birth & Death Rates

Developed
countries
tend to
have lower
birth rates
& death
rates than
developing
countries
(data from
1998).

Brooks/Cole Publishing Company /

ITP

The Demographic Transition

A description of the correlation between

economic development and decreased fertility
rates

Applies to developed countries

Four Phases of demographic transition

There may be other, equally effective means of

reducing fertility rates.

Pre-industrial (Phase I)
Transitional (Phase II)
Industrial (Phase III)
Post-industrial (Phase IV)

Demographic Transition
A generalized model of demographic transition
(four stages):

Total Fertility in the United

States
Total fertility in the United States had a major
increase during the "baby boom" (194664) & is
now hovering just below replacement level.

Population Age Structure

Population age structure of the United States
continues to show a bulge as the baby boom
generation ages. This has been compared to
watching a boa constrictor swallow a pig.

Indicators of Overall Health of Populations

Life expectancy

1.

Developed Countries: up from 48-76 years

Developing Countries: up from 48-65 years

Projection 73 by 2025, 81 in U.S./55 in Africa

Infant mortality rate

2.

22,000 infant deaths/day worldwide

Undernourishment
Malnourishment
Infectious Disease

Infant Mortality in the U.S.

Higher than 37 other developed

countries
Inadequate healthcaremom and
baby
Drug addictions
Highest teen pregnancy rate in world

1.
2.
3.

~872,000 per year (~253,000 aborted/

year)
Leads to low birth weights

Controlling Population Growth

Immigration

Empowering Women

Most effective

Canada, U.S., Australia

have relatively open
immigration policies

Only absorbs 1% of
annual pop. growth in
developing countries

Economic
Rewards/Penalties
best if coercion is not
involved
rewards can increase
economic status of
family

Increased opportunities
for education, health
care, work and equal
rights
Will have less kids
Care better for those
they have

Family Planning

Not equitable

Nearly 42% pregnancies

not planned
Education and clinical
services necessary

Controlling Births-Not Deaths

Opposing Views:
1. Planet is already
overpopulated
2. If everyone existed at a
minimum survival level,
the earth could support
20 - 48 billion people.
Raising death rate not
desirable
Lowering birth rate is the
focus of most efforts to
slow population growth

Case
Study
Immigration in
the United
States:
as fertility
decreases,
immigration has
become a major
source of
population
increase in the
U.S.
in 1998 the U.S.
received about
935,000 legal
immigrants &
400,000 illegal
immigrants;

Case
Studies
Population Control
in India:
in 1952 India began
the first national
family planning
program;
the program has been
disappointing because
of poor planning,
inefficiency, low
status of women,
extreme poverty, &
lack of funds;
couples still have an
average of 3.5
children because of
the belief that they

India

India had the worlds first national

family-planning program in 1952.
However, India is expected to overtake
China in population by the middle of the
century.

Indias people are among the poorest in the

world, with an average per capita income of
$340 a year, which contributes to
widespread malnutrition.
Even with the family-planning program,
Indian women still have an average of 3.5
children because most couples believe they
need many children to do work and care for

Case Studies
Population Control
in China:
Since 1970, China,
with the world's
largest population,
has initiated efforts
to better feed its
people & control
population growth;
strict population
control measures
prevent couples from
having more than
one child;
although considered
coercive, the policy is
significantly slowing

China

China has the worlds

largest population. Since
1970, they have made
efforts to bring its
population growth under
control.

rural china doctor

Couples who pledge to

have no more that one
child are given extra
food, larger pensions,
better housing, free
medical care, and
salary bonuses; their
children will be given
free school tuition and
preferential treatment
in employment.
Couples who break
their pledge lose all the
benefits.
All married couples
have ready access to
free sterilization,
contraceptives, and