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Chapter

Five

McGraw- 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All

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A Survey of Probability
Concepts
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you
will be able to:
ONE
Define probability.
TWO
Describe the classical, empirical, and subjective approaches
to probability.
THREE
Understand the terms: experiment, event, outcome,
permutations, and combinations.
Goals
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A Survey of Probability
Concepts
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you
will be able to:

FOUR
Define the terms: conditional probability and
joint probability.
FIVE
Calculate probabilities applying the rules of addition and the
rules of multiplication.
SIX
Use a tree diagram to organize and compute probabilities.
Goals
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Chapter Five continued

A Survey of Probability
Concepts
SEVEN
Calculate a probability using Bayes theorem.

Goals
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Movie
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There are three definitions of probability: classical,

empirical, and subjective.

The The Empirical Subjective

Classical definition applies probability is
definition when the number based on
applies when of times the event whatever
there are n happens is information is
equally likely divided by the available.
outcomes. number of
observations.

Definitions continued
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Movie
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An Outcome is Experiment: A fair die is cast.

the particular
result of an
experiment.
Possible outcomes: The
numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
An Event is
the collection One possible event: The
of one or more occurrence of an even
number. That is, we collect
outcomes of an
the outcomes 2, 4, and 6.
experiment.
Definitions continued
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Events are Mutually

Events are Independent
Exclusive if the if the occurrence of one event
occurrence of any one does not affect the occurrence
event means that none of another.
of the others can occur
at the same time.
Independence: Rolling a 2
on the first throw does not
Mutually exclusive: influence the probability of
Rolling a 2 precludes a 3 on the next throw. It is
rolling a 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 still a one in 6 chance.
on the same roll.
Mutually Exclusive Events
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Events are Collectively Exhaustive

if at least one of the events must occur
when an experiment is conducted.

Collectively Exhaustive Events

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Throughout her This is an example of the

teaching career empirical definition of
Professor Jones has probability.
awarded 186 As out To find the probability a
of 1,200 students.
selected student earned an A:
What is the
probability that a
student in her
section this
186
semester will P( A) 0.155
receive an A? 1200

Example 2
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Examples of subjective probability are:

estimating the probability the

Washington Redskins will win
the Super Bowl this year.

estimating the probability

mortgage rates for home loans
will top 8 percent.

Subjective Probability
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If two events
A and B are mutually
exclusive, the
Special Rule of
Addition states that the
Probability of A or B
occurring equals the sum of
their respective
probabilities.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Basic Rules of Probability

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Special Rule of Addition when events are mutually
exclusive
A Check of 4,000 packages filled in the past months revealed:

Weight Events Number of Probability of

Packages Occurrence
Underweight A 100 .025
Satisfactory B 3,600 .900
Overweight C 300 .075
4,000 1.00

What is the probability that a particular package will be either underweight

or overweight?
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If A and B are two

events that are not
mutually exclusive,
then P(A or B) is
given by the
following formula:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

The General Rule of Addition

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The Venn Diagram illustrates this rule:

A and B
A

The General Rule of

Addition
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Self Review
What is the probability that a card chosen at random from
a standard deck of cards will be either a king or a heart?

Routine physical examinations are conducted as part of a

health service program for an organization employees. It
was discovered that 8 percent of the employees need
corrective shoes, 15 percent need major dental work, and
3 percent need both corrective shoes and major dental
work.
What is the probability that an employee selected at

random will need either corrective shoes or major dental

work?
Show this situation in the form of a Venn diagram
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Self Review
City residents were surveyed recently to determine
readership of newspapers available. 50% of the residents
read the morning paper, 60% read the evening paper, and
20% read both newspapers. Find the probability that a
resident selected reads either the morning or evening
paper or both the papers
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A Joint Probability measures the likelihood

that two or more events will happen concurrently.

An example would
be the event that a
student has both a
stereo and TV in his
or her dorm room. Joint Probability
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The Special Rule of Multiplication

requires that two events A and B are
independent.

Two events A and B are independent if the

occurrence of one has no effect on the probability of
the occurrence of the other.

This rule is written: P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

Special Rule of Multiplication

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Chris owns two stocks,

IBM and General
Electric (GE). The
probability that IBM
stock will increase in
value next year is .5 and
the probability that GE
stock will increase in
value next year is .7.
Assume the two stocks
are independent. What
is the probability that P(IBM and GE) = (.5)(.7) = .35
both stocks will increase
in value next year? Example 6
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A Conditional Probability is the

probability of a particular event occurring,
given that another event has occurred.

The probability of
event A occurring
given that the event
B has occurred is
written P(A|B).

Conditional Probability
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The General It states that for two

events A and B, the
Rule of
joint probability that
Multiplication is both events will happen
used to find the joint is found by multiplying
probability that two the probability that
events will occur. event A will happen by
the conditional
probability of B given
that A has occurred.

General Multiplication Rule

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Example
There are 10 rolls in a box, 3 of which are defective. Two
rolls are to be selected, one after the other. What is the
probability of selecting a defective roll followed by another
defective roll?
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Multiplication when events are dependent

A sample of executive s were surveyed about their loyalty to the company. One of the
questions was, If you were given an offer by another company equal to or slightly
better than your present position, would you remain with the company or take the
other position? The response of the 200 executives in the survey were cross-
classified with their length of service with the company. Loyalty of Executives and
Lengths of Service with Company

Length of Service

Loyalty Less than 1-5 Years 6-10 Years More than Total
one year B2 B3 10 Years
B1 B4
Would 10 30 5 75 120
remain,A1

Would not 25 15 10 30 80
remain, ~ A

35 45 15 105 200
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What is the probability of randomly selecting an executive

who is loyal to the company ( would remain) and who has
more that 10 years of service?

Findthe probability of selecting an executive who would

remain with the company or has less that 1 year of
experience .
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Self Exercise

What is the probability of selecting an executive with more than 10

years of service?
What is the probability of selecting an executive who would not
remain with the company given that he or she has more than 10 years
of service?
What is the probability of selecting an executive with more than 10
years of service or one who would not remain with the company?
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Bayes Theorem
A manufacturer of VCRs purchases a particular microchip,
called LS-24, from three suppliers: Hall Electronics,
Schuller Sales, and Crawford Components. Thirty percent
of LS chips are purchased from Hall Electronics, 20
percent from Schuller Sales, and the remaining 50 percent
from Crawford Components. The manufacturer has
extensive histories on the three suppliers and know that 3
percent of the LS chips form Hall Electronics are defective,
5 percent of chips form Schuller Sales are defective, and 4
percent of the chips purchased from Crawford
Components are defective.

When LS chips arrive at the manufacturer, they are placed

directly in a bin and not inspected or otherwise identified by
supplier. A worker selects a chip for installation in a VCR
and finds it defective. What is the probability that it was
manufactured by Schuller Sales?
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Self Review

Ina post office, three clerks are assigned to process

incoming mail. The first clerk, B1, processes 40 percent,
the second clerk B2, processes 35 percent and the third
clerk, B3, processes 25 percent of the mail. The first clerk
has an error rate of 0.04, the second has an error rate of
0.06 and the third has an error rate of 0.03. A mail
selected at random from a days output is found to have
error. The Post Master wishes to know the probability that
the mail was processed by the first, second, and third
clerk respectively.
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The Multiplication Example 10: Dr.

Formula indicates Delong has 10
that if there are m ways shirts and 8 ties.
of doing one thing and n How many shirt
and tie outfits
ways of doing another
does he have?
thing, there are m x n
ways of doing both.
(10)(8) = 80

Some Principles of Counting

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A Permutation is any arrangement of r

objects selected from n possible objects.

Note: The order of arrangement is important in

permutations.

n!
n Pr
( n r )!

Some Principles of Counting

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A Combination
is the number of
ways to choose r
n!
objects from a nCr
group of n objects r! (n r )!
without regard to
order.

Some Principles of Counting

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There are 12 players

on the Carolina
Forest High School
basketball team.
Coach Thompson
must pick five
players among the
twelve on the team to
comprise the starting 12!
lineup. How many 12C 5 792
5! (12 5)!
different groups are
possible? (Order
does not matter.)
Example 11
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Suppose that in
addition to
selecting the
group, he must
also rank each of
the players in
that starting
lineup according 12!
to their ability 12 P 5 95,040
(order matters).
(12 5)!

Example 11 continued