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POLITECNICO DI MILANO

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REGIONAL ECONOMICS
LAND RENT THEORY
METHODOLOGIES FOR SPATIAL ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS OF DUESSELDORF

PROFESSORS:
ROBERTA CAPELLO / SILVIA CERISOLA
Group 26

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INTRODUCTION
Specialization and diversification
SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS Dsseldorf -
Sixth most livable
REGIONAL GROWTH PATH city in the world by
Mercers Quality
DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS survey-2016

ECONOMETRICS
CONCLUSION
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LOCATION

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NUTS CLASSIFICATION

Level Subdivisions #

NUTS 1 States (Lnder) 16

Government
NUTS 2 regions (Regierungsbezirke) 39
(or equivalent)

NUTS 3 Districts (Kreise) 429

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REGIONAL SPECIALIZATION
0.35

PA
0.30 Trade

SHARE CHART2013 0.25

Financial

Dsseldorf
0.20
Industry
Sectors
Sl No Index Industry 0.15
bisecting line
1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing
2 B-E Industry (except construction)
0.10
3 F Construction
Wholesale and retail trade; transport; accommodation and food Construction
4 G-J 0.05
service activities; information and communication
Financial and insurance activities; real estate activities; professional, Agriculture
5 K-N scientific and technical activities; administrative and support service
0.00
activities
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security;
6 O-U education; human health and social work activities; arts, entertainment
Germany
and recreation, repair of household goods and other services

GEO GEO(L)/TIME Agriculture Industry Construction Trade Financial PA


DEA1 Dsseldorf 0.007592 0.162450 0.048029 0.281180 0.202145 0.298605
Germany (until
1990 former
0.015279 0.189399 0.057473 0.259999 0.169485 0.308365
territory of the
DE FRG)

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THE LOCATION QUOTIENT

0.1DE11
NUTS 2 Regions

Changes PA LQsin German Regions 2008- 2015


0.08

1.15 0.06
LQ's PA in German regions in 2013

DE93
DEF0
DE72
DE92 0.04 DE26
DEB1
DEB2 DE6
DEA2 DE4 DEA4
DEA1 DE72
DEA3
DEB3 DED2
DE25
DE13 DEC0
DE12
DE24
DE14 DEA5
1.05 DE9 DEE0 0.02
DEA2
DE92
DEA3
DE73
DE27
DE22 DE21 DEB2
DE5 DEB3DEB1 NUTS 2
DEA5DE5DEG0
DEC0 0 DE9
0.8 0.9 DE94
1 1.1DEF0 1.2 1.3
DEA4 DE94
DE26 DED5 DED4 DE73
DEA1 DE23 DE3
-0.02 DE93
0.95 DE13
DE14DED4 DEG0
DE24 DED5
DE12 DE7 DED2
DE6DE21
DE25
DE23 -0.04
DE4
DE11 DE22 DE7
DE27 DEE0 DE8
-0.06
0.85
0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05 1.15 -0.08
LQs PA in German Regions in 2008 LQs PA in German Regions in 2008

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LQs RADAR CHART

2008 2013
Agriculture
1.4 Agriculture
1.4
1.2
1.2
1
1
0.8
PA Industry 0.8
PA Industry
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 Germany 0.2 Germany
0 Dsseldorf 0 Dsseldorf
Berlin Berlin

Financial Construction Financial Construction

Trade
Trade

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Hirschmann-Herfindahl Index 2008 vs 2013

Total HHI Total HHI


0.3 0.279981 0.30
0.236633 0.237844 0.230822
0.2 0.20

0.1 0.10

0 0.00
Dsseldorf Germany (until 1990 former Dsseldorf Germany (until 1990 former
territory of the FRG) territory of the FRG)
Total HHI Total HHI

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Hirschmann-Herfindahl Index 2013

HHI HHI
0.10 0.083078 0.083794 0.10 0.089165
0.079062
0.08 0.08
0.06 0.037398 0.06 0.040863
0.04 0.030021 0.04 0.026390
0.02 0.000062 0.002280 0.02 0.000058 0.002307
0.00 0.00

HHI HHI

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SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS I. With Reference Nation (Germany)
A B-E F G-J K-N O-U Total Growth
DEA1 Dsseldorf -0.04389 -0.06884 0.03882 0.02126 0.18527 0.07255 0.04941
Germany
(until 1990
DE former -0.03293 0.02430 0.06719 0.06141 0.18662 0.07159 0.07514
territory of
the FRG)

Sl No Index Industry

1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing


0.25
2 B-E Industry (except construction) K-N
0.20
3 F Construction 0.15
Shift-Share

Growth rates Dusseldorf


Wholesale and retail trade; transport; accommodation and food 0.10 G-J F O-U
4 G-J
service activities; information and communication B-E 0.05 Average Germany Growth

0.00
A Average Dusseldorf growth
Financial and insurance activities; real estate activities;
-0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30
5 K-N professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative and -0.05
support service activities Bisectant
-0.10
Rotated Average Germany
-0.15
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security; growth
education; human health and social work activities; arts, -0.20
6 O-U
entertainment and recreation, repair of household goods and
other services -0.25
Growth rates Germany

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SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS II. With Reference to Berlin
A B-E F G-J K-N O-U Avg Growth

DEA1 Dsseldorf -0.04389 -0.06884 0.03882 0.02126 0.18527 0.07255 0.04941

DE3 Berlin -0.54955 -0.01008 0.07525 0.17254 0.19050 0.13435 0.13947

Sl No Index Industry
0.25 1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing
K-N
0.20 G-J
2 B-E Industry (except construction)
O-U
0.15
Shift-Share 3 F Construction
0.10 F
Growth rates Dusseldorf

0.05 Average Berlin growth Wholesale and retail trade; transport; accommodation and food
4 G-J
B-E service activities; information and communication
0.00
Average Dusseldorf
-0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
-0.05 growth Financial and insurance activities; real estate activities;
Bisectant 5 K-N professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative and
-0.10 support service activities
-0.15 Rotated Berlin Growth
-0.20 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security;
education; human health and social work activities; arts,
-0.25 6 O-U
entertainment and recreation, repair of household goods and
Growth rates Berlin other services

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REGIONAL GROWTH PATTERNS
5.0 RPG
2year Avg REG_D RPG_D REG_B RPG_B
01-02 0.61723 0.25112 -0.25042 -0.19960
4.0
03-04 -1.04325 -2.22028 0.87850 0.79873
07-08
05-06 -0.79032 -1.48789 0.74011 -0.02160
3.0
07-08 -1.49211 -1.71834 3.40241 3.20551
09-10 -1.23492 2.05211 -4.60733 -2.06474 09-10
2.0
11-13 -0.68100 -0.23393 -1.65863 -3.97438

03-04
1.0
01-02 REG
2year Average Dusseldorf Berlin 05-06
01-02
11-13 Dusseldorf
01-02 Virtuous cycle Deindustrialization 0.0
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Berlin
03-04 Deindustrialization Virtuous cycle
DY=0
05-06 Deindustrialization Virtuous cycle -1.0
05-06
07-08 Deindustrialization Virtuous cycle 07-08
09-10
09-10 Restructuring Deindustrialization 03-04 -2.0

11-13 Deindustrialization Deindustrialization


-3.0

11-13
-4.0

-5.0

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DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
Germany-NUTS 3
HHI (PA_2013)
Mean 0.001001515
Standard Error 0.000071873
Median 0.000413516
Mode 0.000000508
Standard Deviation 0.001534783
Sample Variance 0.000002356
Kurtosis 15.332983465
Skewness 3.177747365 Skewness Positive: right tail of the distribution is longer
Range 0.013407590
Minimum 0.000000242
Maximum 0.013407832
Sum 0.456690718
Count 456.000000000
Largest(1) 0.013407832
Smallest(1) 0.000000242
Confidence Level(95.0%) 0.000141244

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NUTS3

ECONOMETRICS 11 DE6
10.9
DE21
10.8
DE71 y = 0.0707x + 9.9044
10.7 DE5 DE11
R = 0.0991

log_pc-GDP_2013
10.6 DE7 DE2
DE1
DE12
DE25
DE14 DEA1
DEA2
10.5 DE23DE91
DE26DE27 DEA DE
DE22 DEB3
DE13 DE3
DEA4
DE92
10.4 DEC
DE73
DE24 DEB DE9
DE94DEA5
10.3 DE72 DEB1 DEA3
DED5 DEF
DEB2
10.2
DED2 DED
10.1 DE93 DEG
DE4
DEE
DED4
DE8
10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
log_total empl_2013
GEO GEO(L)/TIME Empl_2013 GDP/Capita_2013 R&D log_R&D log_Total emp log_pc-GDP
6.89780594 10.4631033
DE Germany (until 1990 former territory of the FRG) 42,281.00 35,000 990.1 8 10.65209309 4
7.55491087 10.5966347
DE1 Baden-Wrttemberg 5,945.12 40,000 1,910.1 6 8.690325994 3
7.89829968 10.7144177
DE11 Stuttgart 2,282.47 45,000 2,692.7 7 7.733013469 7
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REGRESSION OUTPUT
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.704518978
R Square 0.496346991
Adjusted R Square 0.47292127
Standard Error 0.148478114
Observations 46

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 0.934215998 0.467107999 21.18811982 3.94299E-07
Residual 43 0.947967264 0.02204575
Total 45 1.882183262

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 8.77978858 0.261233223 33.60900458 1.67322E-32 8.252961577 9.306615582 8.252961577 9.306615582
log_R&D 0.218021993 0.037434764 5.824051408 6.58792E-07 0.142527595 0.29351639 0.142527595 0.29351639
log_Total emp 0.02597387 0.025508783 1.018232429 0.314262558 -0.025469494 0.077417235 -0.025469494 0.077417235

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Crude Log Crude log_Waste
Empl_201 GDP/Capita Waste log_Total log_pc-
R&D Death log_R&D Death Generated
3 _2013 generated emp GDP
GEO GEO(L)/TIME rate_2013 rate_2013 _2013

REGRESSION OUTPUT Germany (until 1990


former territory of the 6.897805 10.508459 10.65209 10.463103
DE FRG) 42,281.00 35,000 990.1 1,101.43 36,624 948 7.004364615 04 309 34
7.554910 7.2837915 8.690325 10.596634
DE1 Baden-Wrttemberg 5,945.12 40,000 1,910.1 949.58 1,456.50 876 6.856019782 76 994 73
7.898299 7.4591084 7.733013 10.714417
DE11 Stuttgart 2,282.47 45,000 2,692.7 934.08 1,735.6 687 6.839562088 54 469 77

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.794643452
R Square 0.631458216
Adjusted R Square 0.59550292
Standard Error 0.130071573
Observations 46

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 1.188520085 0.297130021 17.56231452 1.80881E-08
Residual 41 0.693663176 0.016918614
Total 45 1.882183262

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 15.14766809 1.755092506 8.630694985 9.17739E-11 11.60318686 18.69214931 11.60318686 18.69214931
log_R&D 0.141424816 0.039899046 3.544566331 0.000998892 0.060847057 0.222002574 0.060847057 0.222002574
Log_Crude Death rate_2013 -0.82485877 0.220906132 -3.733978599 0.000573679 -1.270987755 -0.378729785 -1.270987755 -0.378729785
log_Waste Generated_2013 0.017374693 0.048615832 0.357387542 0.722634855 -0.080806971 0.115556357 -0.080806971 0.115556357
log_Total emp -0.001016888 0.041727406 -0.024369787 0.980675873 -0.085287094 0.083253318 -0.085287094 0.083253318
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CONCLUSION Stronger degree of Specialization -PA
Specialization and Specialized sectors- Trade and Financial
diversification
Higher intensity - Financial

SSA Negative shift due to local industrial mix


2year Average Dusseldorf Berlin
01-02 Virtuous cycle Deindustrialization
REGIONAL GROWTH PATH 03-04
05-06
Deindustrialization
Deindustrialization
Virtuous cycle
Virtuous cycle
07-08 Deindustrialization Virtuous cycle
09-10 Restructuring Deindustrialization
11-13 Deindustrialization Deindustrialization

Descriptive statistics HHI indicators of PA 2013- Positive SK and K

REGIONAL GROWTH PATH Single Social variable -R = 0.0991


4 social variables - R = 0.631458216
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