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- how large?
Measurement
- Large magnitude of 1811-12 Uncertainty in
and thus future large interpreting intensity
earthquakes data
- High ground motion in large Lack of data; chose
events high model
Algermissen et al., 1982
Hazard redefined
from maximum
acceleration
predicted at
10% probability
in 50 yr
(1/ 500 yr )
to much higher
2% in 50 yr
(1/2500 yr)
500 yr 2500 yr
PREDICTED
HAZARD
DEPENDS ON
ASSUMED
MAXIMUM
MAGNITUDE OF
LARGEST
EVENTS AND
ASSUMED
GROUND
MOTION MODEL
Frankel/Toro:
St Louis 1.8
Memphis 1.3 Newman et
al., 2001
EFFECTS OF
ASSUMED
GROUND
MOTION MODEL
Effect as large as one
magnitude unit
Frankel model,
developed for maps,
predicts significantly
greater shaking for M >7
Frankel M 7 similar to
other models’ M 8
Time dependent
lower until ~2/3
mean
recurrence
Charleston &
New Madrid
early in their
cycles so time
dependent
predicts lower
hazard
Including GPS
makes effect much
greater
Hebden & Stein, 2008
Assume from GPS data no M7 on the way
Some hazard remains from earthquakes up to M ~ 6.7
Hazard ~ 1/10 that of USGS prediction
2% in 50 yr (1/2500 yr)
Hebden & Stein, 2008