Darn that internet!

James Enck
January
- 1 -2007
 Who am I and why am I here?

• European Telecom
Analyst/Global Telecom
Strategist (whatever that is).
• Author of EuroTelcoblog
and Chaotica blogs.
• My avatar is considerably
thinner than me…

-2-
My own industry is being disrupted from the edge

-3-
We’re not in Kansas
anymore…
-4-
Are you ready for the most disruptive and
unpredictable force in telecom?

-5-
Your customer

-6-
Do you know who your competitors are?

-7-
Everyone you can imagine, and some you can’t

-8-
No longer “your father’s” internet

-9-
The geeks have been hard at work

- 10 -
How broad does broadband have to be?

What we want/need

What we have
- 11 -
Do you buy the “slowly, slowly” story?

Recent study from Arthur D. Little came to the following

conclusions about European broadband in 2011:
? “Not more than 10% of broadband households are
expected to exceed 30Mbps” (downstream);
? Upload speed of 8Mbps will be sufficient;
? “FTTH will mostly be relevant at a local/regional
level, assuming it is able to offer more than superior
bandwidth.”

- 12 -
Not everybody is drinking the Kool-Aid
"There's an absolute risk of people
dropping basic video service for
Internet video."
"Bandwidth consumption is
definitely increasing, and the
average consumption rate is
definitely increasing. It's definitely
a real problem; there's definitely a
storm coming."
- regional cable operator

"Prepare your networks for the

primetime on-demand wave."
- Motorola executive

- 13 -
 Ouch, my creaking pipes!

Source: PlusNet
- 14 -
 “Evil” BitTorrent
Weekly and normalized monthly download figures, top ten global video titles
70,000,000

60,000,000

50,000,000

40,000,000
Weekly total
M onthly run rate
30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

0
D 05

Se 06
Se 05
M 05

O 05

M 06

06
Ja 4

Ja 5
Fe 05

Fe 6
A 05

A 06
N 05
Ju 5

Ju 6
A 5

A 06
M -05

M -06
Ju 5

Ju 6
-0

-0
0
0

0
l-0
-0

-0
-

-
b-

p-

b-

p-
n-

n-
-

-
ct-
n-

n-
l-
ug

ov

ug
ec

ec
ar

ar
pr

pr
ay

ay
D

Source: Daiwa, from p2pnet.net and BigChampagne data

- 15 -
Nice, cuddly BitTorrent

- 16 -
BitTorrent on HD steroids

- 17 -
Even Auntie likes P2P

- 18 -
A bundle of pain?

- 19 -
Don’t look now

- 20 -
Changing allegiances

- 21 -
Massive online storage and virtualization

- 22 -
Massive local storage, place-shifted

- 23 -
Your viral badge of choice

- 24 -
 Persistent virtual worlds: It’s no game

slfuturesalon.blogs.com

Business Week

- 25 -
Second childhood?

- 26 -
It’s your document calling

- 27 -
 Conclusions
In a world where the humble .pdf can be a platform for
disruption, I think we have to expect that virtually
anything can happen.

I’d bet that current expectations for bandwidth consumption

(and related elements – data center space, power, cooling,
processing power, storage) are too conservative.

Much of this will be threatening to the integrated telco model –

but there will also be big rewards for adapting wisely.

… if we know what’s really happening at street level (even if

that street is virtual)
- 28 -
Thanks for listening!

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