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Be sure to read Sections 4.1 and 4.3 along with this chapter. Trading futures contracts with the objective of reducing price risk is called hedging. Not all risks faced by a business can be hedged via a futures marketi.e., quantity risk.
Hedging Fundamentals
Hedging with futures typically involves taking a position in a futures market that is opposite the position already held in a cash market. A Short (or selling) Hedge: Occurs when a firm holds a long cash position and then sells futures contracts for protection against downward price exposure in the cash market. A Long (or buying) Hedge: Occurs when a firm holds a short cash position and then buys futures contracts for protection against upward price exposure in the cash market. Also known as an anticipatory hedge. A Cross Hedge: Occurs when the asset underlying the futures contract differs from the product in the cash position Firms can hold long and short hedges simultaneously (but for different price risks).
David Dubofsky and 7-2 Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
Q: Whats the Complaint about flattening the payoff profile to a horizontal line?
Change in price
A rise in the price of a good will lower profits (or firm value)
David Dubofsky and 7-3 Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
Change in price
A decline in the price of a good will lower profits (or firm value)
(Note: The last trading day of the June crude oil futures contract is the last business day in May, etc.)
David Dubofsky and 7-7 Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
If (VH = 0, then ((S)(QS) = ((F)NFQF, and the risk-minimizing number of futures contracts to trade, NF*, is
* NF
QS ! QF
S F
Example: Solution
Because you are long in the cash market, using a risk minimizing hedge means that you should take a short position in the futures market. Concerning the number of contracts:
* ! * ! (1 * !
/1
) ( . /1. )
Note Bene:
It is really important to note here that we are assuming that the relationship between the changes in the spot price and changes in the futures price will remain the same (i.e., at 0.90 to 1.00) over the time period we are hedging.
Example 2, Cont.
There are 42,000 gallons of heating oil in one futures contract. You estimate the following regression equation: (S = 0.0177 + 0.9837 (F R2 = 0.80 R2 is a goodness of fit measure for the regression model.
It should exceed 0.50 for effective hedging. The higher it is, the more confident you will be of getting good results. That is, the higher it is, the more confident you will be that the two prices will move together in the future.
Example 2, Cont.
* ! S S
7)
So, sell either 9 or 10 contracts for a risk-minimizing hedge. Sometimes, hedging is an Art.
David Dubofsky and 7-16 Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
Another Example
Using historical data, you estimate:
S ! 21.47 1.31 F.
You have committed to sell 5000 units of the cash good at the market price one month hence. There are 1000 units of the asset underlying each futures contract. So: [buy/sell?] (1.31)(5000/1000) = 6.55 contracts.
Today:
Spot Commitment to sell 5000 units; S0 = 23.00 Futures Sell 6.55 futures at F0 = 22.00
Suppose the model works perfectly ((S/(F = 1.31): One month hence (scenario 1: ST =24.00; FT =22.763): Sell good; receive $120,000 Futures Loss = $5,000 TOTAL REVENUE: $115,000 ($23.00/unit) One month hence (scenario 2: ST = 20.00; FT = 19.710): Sell good; receive $100,000 Futures Gain = $15,000 TOTAL REVENUE: $115,000 ($23.00/unit)
David Dubofsky and 7-19 Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
Note Bene:
If the futures price and the spot price change in the predicted manner, you lock in the spot price. But in general, you face basis risk. That is
You sell at S2, the spot price in the future, and You realize profits or losses on the change in F.
With convergence (no basis risk at time T), just sell 5 futures contracts (a full hedge), and you lock in the futures price. Example:
Today
Spot Commitment to sell 5000 units; S0 = 23.00 Futures Sell 5 futures at F0 = 22.00
Suppose we have convergence: One month hence (scenario 1: ST = 24 = FT ) Sell good; receive $120,000 Loss = $10,000 TOTAL REVENUE: $110,000 ($22.00/unit) One month hence (scenario 2: ST = 20 = FT) Sell good; receive $100,000 Gain = $10,000 TOTAL REVENUE: $110,000 ($22.00/unit)
David Dubofsky and 7-21 Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
(S
. .
(F
(S
. .
. .
High R2
(F
Low R2
David Dubofsky and 7-22 Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
Dollar Equivalency
Often, you cannot run a regression model to estimate a hedge ratio. In this case, you must estimate the following:
If the spot price changes adversely by, say, a dollar, how much will you lose on your cash position? (= (VS) If the spot price changes by a dollar, how much of a change do you estimate there will be in the futures price, and hence, in the value of one futures contract? (= (VF)
Where:
d = the number of days until the hedge is anticipated to be lifted. r = the annualized appropriate interest rate.