A Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Vision

Richard M. Swanson SunPower Corporation

Questions I often hear from the general public

 Why have solar cells never become a substantial source of energy?  Too bad solar never made it, it seemed so promising back in the 1970s.  When will the big breakthrough come that will make solar cells practical?

Answers and Fun Facts

 Solar cell manufacturing is a vital and rapidly growing industry, enjoying over 30% annual growth over the last 10 years.  In 2002, more square inches of silicon was used by the solar cell industry than the IC industry.  There will be no big breakthrough that impacts the industry for at least 10 years, and probably 20 years.  Instead, the existing technologies will evolve to where they will be cost effective in most distributed applications in 10 years, and will be competitive with fossil fuel generation in 20 years.

Solar Cell Rules of Thumb

 The annual production of solar modules increases ten-fold every decade  The price of solar cell modules decreases by half every decade
 2002: $3.00/W  2012: $1.50/W  2022: $0.75/W

World Solar Module Production 1980-2000 (MW) 300 250 Source: Solarbuzz Inc. 200 Off-grid 150 100 50 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 On-grid Consumer indoor

S olar Cell P rice Exhibits a Classic Experience Curve Behavior

100

1979 $30/W

81% Progress Ratio

Maycock Strategies

Module Price (2002$)

10

2002 $3/W

1 1 10 100 1000 10000

Cumulative Production (MW)

Distribution of Progress Ratios

22 Field Studies (Dutton and Thomas 1984)
PV Progress Ratio
14 12 10 Frequency 8 6 4 2 0 50 60 70 80 90 100

Note: These progress ratios are firm level (not industry wide) studies.

Progress Ratio

Taken from Robert Margolis PhD Thesis, 2002

Factors Driving Past Cost Reduction

       
Poly silicon price: $300/kg $30/kg Wire saws: now < $0.25/W Larger wafers: 2 6 Thinner wafers: 15 mil 8 mil Improved efficiency: 10% 16% Volume manufacturing: 1MW 100MW Increased automation: none some Improved manufacturing processes

Experience Curves Can Be Used to P roject Into the Future

100

Historical
1980 $21.83/W Module Price ($/W) ($2002) 1985 $11.20/W 10

Projected

1990 $6.07/W

1995 $4.90/W

2000 $3.89/W

2005 $2.70/W 2010 $1.82/W 2013 $1.44/W

1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Cumulative Production (MW)

The Silicon Roadmap

Where Will Solar Cells Go in the Future? Developed at the 2002 NREL Silicon Workshop

Poly-Silicon Cost Roadmap

35

30

Poly Cost ($/kg)

25 Mc-Si CZ-Si 20

15

10 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

Wafer Thickness Roadmap

350

300

250

Wafer Thickness (um)

200 Mc-Si CZ-Si 150

100

50

0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

Cell Efficiency Roadmap

22

20

18

Efficiency (%)

16

Mc-Si CZ-Si

14

Efficiency has huge cost leverage

12

10 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

Module Cost Roadmap

3.00

2. 0

2.00

Module Cost ($/W)

2012 $1.10/W
Mc 1. 0 i i

1.00

0. 0

0.00 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

Silic o n Ro a d ma p P re d ic ts 2 0 1 3 Go a l W ill Be Me t! Co s t-Effe c tive Dis tribute d P o we r in 2 0 1 2

100 1980 $21.83/W 1985 $11.20/W 10 1990 $6.07/W

Historical Projected

1995 $4.90/W

2000 $3.89/W

2005 $2.70/W 2010 $1.82/W 2013 $1.44/W

Silic o n Ro a d ma p Co s t
1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Cumulative Production (MW)

Dis tribute d Ge ne ra tio n Va lue

Factors Driving Future Cost Reduction

        Poly silicon price: $300/kg $30/kg Wire saws: now < $0.25/W Larger wafers: 2 6 Thinner wafers: 8 mil 2 mil Improved efficiency: 16% 22% Volume manufacturing: 100MW 1000MW Increased automation: some lots Continued improvement in manufacturing processes

Extending Projection to 2013 Predicts Cost-effective Bulk Power

100 1 30 1 1 0 21 3 1 10 10 2000 3 2013 1 2023 0 1 Bulk ener tion lue Distri uted ener tion lue

Historic l Projected

Module Price ($/W) ($2002)

32

Current
01 1 10 100 1 000 10 000

ener tion C
100 000

cit
1 000 000

Cumulative Production (MW)

Early Projections Were Not Too Good

istorical
W W

Projected OE Projection
W istri ted Generation al e B l Generation al e

W )( a ule Price ( W a W

B ig B rea thro gh ge Growth

a W

rrent

Generation a acity

Cumulat

uct

The Renewable Energy Revolution



Renewable energy will capture a meaningful share of the Global Energy Market in the next 25 years. Key drivers will be:  Falling costs for renewable energy  Declining fossil fuel production  Increasing energy demand worldwide  Environmental concerns
Oil industry consensus: production is will peak between 2004 and 2010

Source: C.J.Campbell World Oil Resources Dec 2000

The Future of Renewables

Projected World Energy Production
300 es 200 100 0 a O 2060 2040 2020 1999 B mass N c ear Gas Hy r S ar Ge

Exaj

Source: Royal Dutch Shell Group

$23 Billion in Subsidies Yields Inexhaustible,

Pollution-Free Source of Energy!
Subsidize the difference in cost over $3/W
Annual Subsidy ($B)

3 3 2 2
$2 B $23B $2 B

2 3

gro th gro th gro th

2
Year

Thank You Austin Clean Energy Initiative and Best of Luck Making Austin a Center of Clean Energy