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COURSE CONTENT : 4 PARTS PART I : The Fundamentals {Before syllabus we would cover in deeper the meaning of economic environment of business} The Scope & Subject Matter of Macroeconomics An Introduction to the Economics of Growth & Development An Introduction to the Indian Economy - Its Salient Features India's Gross Domestic Product & Net National Product (its components & the significance of the same to growth) Inter-Sectoral Distribution of the Gross National Product over the Five Year Plans Period.
PART IV: India & the World The capitalist world economy and India's position therein since 1990
The World Bank, and IMF conditionalities leading to the liberalisation - privatisation -globalisation exercise and beyond
DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD POPULATION & WORLD GNI AMONG VARIOUS GROUP OF COUNTRIES
COUNTRY GR. Population Mn. 1296 4260 3437 823 1056 6612 % 19.6 GNI ( ex. Rate GNI PPP basis basis Bn($) 749 % 1.4 Bn($) 1935 % 3.0 38.7 23.8 14.9 58.3 100 Per capita GNI Ex Rate Basis($) 578 2872 1887 6987 37,566 7958
PPP Basis($)
24.6%
84%
LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME a. Low Middle Income b. Upper Middle Income HIGH INCOME WORLD
23.2 25,354
12.3
10.9
16.0
100.
39,682 75.4
DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD POPULATION & WORLD GNI AMONG VARIOUS GROUP OF COUNTRIES
Country
GR.
Mn. %
Population
1056
16.0
39,682 75.4
38,144
58.3
36,100
6612 1320
100. 20.0
65,144 7084
100 10.8
7958 2360
9852 5370
INDIA
1123
17
1069 2.0
3079
4.7
950
2740
3 observations could be made regarding the UN Classification of the developed and developing countries on the basis of per capita income.
1999-2000
4.8 3.8 5.3 2.1 2.7 10.6 6.0
2004-05
6.1 5.2 6.3 3.5 2.2 9.6 7.0
(a) Developing economies are distinguished from the developed economies on the basis of their low per capita income. It is most significant single measure of comparison for different economies. (b) The central problem of developing economies is the prevalence of mass poverty which is the cause as well as consequence of their low level of development.
The children of the poor by and large are either engaged in unskilled occupations or some semi skilled occupations. This enables them to earn very low and meagre wages and thus perpetuate poverty.
(d) Mass poverty in developing economies is not due to poor natural resources but due to inadequate development of these resource and exploitative social structure.
Per Capita Income in India in 2008 was $1040 . Barring a few countries the per capita income of the Indian people is lowest in the world. Despite having grown at a faster pace than the developed economies during 1990-2009, the percapita income in India is lower than many countries :
39,210
INDIA
CHINA
1040
2,940
2,930
6,010
PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE POPULATION ENGAGED IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN OF GDP IN 2008
COUNTRIES Active Population % engaged in Agricult.. Industrial Origin of GDP Percentage Distribution
Agriculture. Industry U.K. U.S.A. JAPAN THAILAND PAKISTAN CHINA 1 4 5 45 52 47 0.7 1.3 1.4 11.6 20.4 11.3 23.7 21.8 29.3 44.2 26.9 48.6
INDIA
58
17.5
28.8
53.7
Heavy population pressure in India emerged from high level of birth rates coupled with a falling level of death rates. The rate of growth of population which was about 1.31% during 1941-50 rose to 1.93% during 1991-2001. While there is a steep fall in death rate from 49 per thousand during 1911-20 to 7.4 per thousand in 2008, birth rate has declined from about 49 per thousand during 1911-20 to 22.8 per thousand in 2008. The annual average rate of growth of population during 2000-2005 has further declined to 1.5%
Due to abundance in labour it is very difficult to provide gainful employment to the entire working population.
In developed countries unemployment is of a cyclical nature and occurs due to lack of demand . In India unemployment is structural in nature and is the result of a deficiency of capital.
There is disguised or concealed unemployment in Agriculture. Thus even if the surplus population is siphoned off , the total output from agriculture will not fall because those persons who were working below capacity begin to be utilised to the full. The Planning Commission on the basis of the NSS data has estimated that during 2004-05 the rate of unemployment has risen to 8.36% as against 7.32% in 1999-00. The Eleventh Plan (2007-12) will have a backlog of 37 million unemployed.
RATE
OF
CAPITAL
During 50s and 60s basic characteristic of the Indian economy was the capital deficiency which is reflected in two ways: Firstly, the amount of capital per head available was low and The rate of capital formation was also low. An important indicator of low capital per head available in underdeveloped countries is the consumption of energy.
COUNTRIES U.S.A.
U.K. JAPAN CHINA INDIA
Professor Colin Clark has estimated that in order to maintain the same standard of living a country requires an additional investment of 4% per annum. In a country like India where population growth is 1.5% (2000-2005) about 6% investment is needed to offset the additional burden imposed by the rising population.
JAPAN
GERMANY CHINA INDIA
33
24 35 24
24.1
19.3 44.4 39.7
34
24 38 23
28.9
25.8 54.3 38.0
More recently Gross Domestic Saving in 2008 reached a high level of 38% and Gross capital formation was high at 39.7%.
In Rural areas 51% of bottom households owned just 10% of total assets.
As against this 9.6% of rich households accounted for nearly 49% of total assets.
In Urban area the position is much worse: 50.7% of the Urban households owning less than Rs. 50,000 worth of assets accounted for barely 5.3% total assets. As against them nearly 66% of the total assets of all urban households were held by 14.2% of the households each owning Rs. 2.5 lakhs and above. Inequality in asset distribution is the principal cause of unequal distribution of income in the rural areas.
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX 2007 COUNTRY LIFE ADULT EXPECT LITERACY ANCY (%) 2007 2007
COMBINED ENROLME NT RATIO (%) 2007 PER CAPITA REAL GDP $PPP2007
HDI RANK
4 13 10 8
U.K.
CHINA INDIA
79.3
72.9 63.4
99.0
93.3 66.0
89.2
68.7 61.0
35,130
5383 2,753
21
92 134
According to Census data (2001) 52% of households were living in permanent, about 30% in semi permanent and 18% in temporary homes.
PERMANENT
SEMI PERMANENT
TEMPORARY
TOTAL
(100)
(100)
(100)
High population density (373 per sq Km. as against 33 in US, Canada and Australia 2-4 per sq km) . In China 141 and World level 50 2006 data) Low expectation of life High infant mortality
The percentage of children (Below 15 years) which was 35.5% in 2001 has declined to 32.1% in 2006 and to 23.3% by 2026. Consequently the population in the working age group (15 to 64 years) is expected to increase from 63% in 2006 to 68.4% by 2026. Due to fall in dependency ratio, India will experience a demographic dividend during the next 3 decades.
Underdevelopment finds expression through several socio economic indicators such as per capita intake of calories, fats and proteins, population per TV set and physician .
India remains far behind the developed countries so far as these indicators of standard of living are concerned.
INDIA CHINA
45 71
59 77
2496 2,897
69 272
0.4 2.0
JAPAN
U.S.A. U.K.
83
143 141
96
112 93
2,932
3,699 3,276
707
847 645
7.3
2.5 1.5
Similarly significant proportion of the capital formation is utilised to provide basic facilities to the additional population at the present level of living.
Uncertainty of agricultural production is one of the major problems of Indian economy since agriculture is still a gamble in the monsoons. Since Independence, there has been considerable increase in the production of the agricultural sector.
economy is to devise a strategy of agricultural development which can promise a steady growth
This resulted in a sharp increase in the prices of wage goods at the annual rate of 8% per annum.
18. CONCENTRATION OF INCOME AND WEALTH HAS INCREASED . The condition of bottom 20% of the population has definitely deteriorated and the next 20% of the population has remained stagnant.