HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 1.Management Judgment 2. Ratio Trend Analysis 3. Regression Analysis 4. Workstudy Techniques 5. Delphi Technique 6. Flow Models 7. Other Forecasting Techniques

1.MANAGERIAL JUDGEMENT
Based on experience and judgment of managers- May be Top Down or Bottom- Up approach.

2. RATIO TREND ANALYSIS

Quickest forecasting technique. Involves studying past ratios, say no. of workers and sales in an organization and forecasting future ratios.

3. REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Similar to Ratio trend analysis as it is based on relationship between sales volume and employee size. More statistically sophisticated

4. WORK STUDY TECHNIQUES

Can be used when it is possible to apply work measurement to calculate length of operations and amount of labour required. Example: MANUFACTURING UNIT 1. Planned Output for next year 20,000 units 2. Standard hours per unit 05 3. Planned hours of the year 100,000 units 4. Productive hours per man/year 2,000 (Allowing normal OT, Absenteeism and idle times) 5. No. of Direct Workers required 50

5. DELPHI TECHNIQUES
Estimates of personnel needs are solicited from a group of experts (Usually managers) HRP experts act as intermediaries, summarise responses and report findings back to experts Summaries and surveys are repeated till different experts opinion gain consensus. Consensus reached is the forecast of personnel needs. Characterized by absence of interaction amongst experts.

6. FLOW MODELS
a) Flow models are associated with forecasting personnel needs. The simplest one is called the Markov model. In this technique, the forecast will: Determine the time that should be covered. The time horizon depends on the length of the HR plan which, in turn, is determined by the strategic plan of the organisation. Establish categories, also called states, to which employees can be assigned. These categories must not overlap. Count annual movements (also called flows) among states for several time periods. These states are defined as absorbing (gains or losses to the company) or non-absorbing (change in position levels or employment status). Losses include death or disability, absences, resignations and retirements. Gains include hiring, rehiring, transfer and movement of position level. Estimate the probability of transitions from one state to another based on trends. Demand is a function of replacing those who make a transition.

b) There are alternatives to the simple Markov model. One, called the semi-Markov, takes into account not just the category but also the tenure of individuals in each category. c) Markov analysis is advantageous because it makes sense to decision makers. They can easily understand its underlying assumptions. They are, therefore, likely to accept results. The disadvantages include: (i) heavy reliance on past-oriented data, which may not be accurate in periods of turbulent change, and (ii) accuracy in forecasts about individuals is scarified to achieve accuracy across groups.

7. Other Forecasting Techniques

a. New venture analysis is used when new ventures require employment planning. This technique requires planners to estimate HR needs in line with companies that perform similar operations. For example, a petroleum company that plans to open a coal mine can estimate its future employment needs by determining employment levels of other coal mines. b. Mathematical models are used in human need forecasting too. One such widely used technique is the one given below: En = (Lagg + Gn) y

where, En is the estimated level of personnel demand in n planning periods (e.g. years). Lagg is the overall or aggregate level of current business activity in rupees. Gn is the total growth in business activity anticipated through period n in todays rupees. x is the average productivity improvement anticipated from today through planning period n (e.g. if x= 1.08, it means an average productivity improvement of 8 per cent). y is a conversion figure relating todays overall activity to personnel required (total level of todays business activity divided by the current number of personnel). It reflects the level of business activity per person. The main purpose of this model is to predict En, the level of personnel necessary in n periods. Prior to applying this model, estimates of G, x and y must be made. Such estimates may be used on the previous experiences of management, as well as on future strategic choices to which the organisations decision makers are committed.