OF COMPANY: MAHINDRA PRESENTED BY : Mohammed yaseen Annushree Waseem ahmed Iman ahmed

DEMAND FORECASTING MEANS PREDICTING OR ESTIMATING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR A PRODUCT . IT IS UNDERTAKEN FOR THE PURPOSE OF PLANNING AND MAKING LONGTERM DECISIONS

Forward Planning and Scheduling Acquiring Inputs Making provision for finance Formulating pricing strategy Planning advertisement

Specifying the Objective Determining the time Perspective and type of good Selecting a proper method of forecasting Collection of data Interpretation of results

1.

2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

In presenting a forecast to the management, a managerial economist should: Make the forecast as easy for the management to understand as possible. Avoid using vague generalities. Always pin-point the major assumptions and sources. Give the possible margin of error. Avoid making undue qualifications. Omit details about methodology and calculations. Make use of charts and graphs as much as possible for easy comprehension.

2. Undertaken at three levels:

a. b. c.

3. 4. 5. 6.

Macro-level Industry level eg., trade associations Firm level Should the forecast be general or specific (productwise)? Problems or methods of forecasting for new vis-vis well established products. Classification of products producer goods, consumer durables, consumer goods, services. Special factors peculiar to the product and the market risk and uncertainty. (eg., ladies dresses)

1 . Simplicity and ease of

comprehension. 2. Accuracy measured by (a) degree of deviations between forecasts and actuals, and (b) the extent of success in forecasting directional changes. 3. Economy. 4. Availability. 5. Maintenance of timeliness.

SURVEY METHOS

CONSUMER SURVEY METHODS

OPINION METHODS

COMPLETE ENUMERATION METHOD

SAMPLE SURVEY METHOD

END USE METHOD

EXPERTS OPINION METHOD

TEST MARKETING METHOD

DELPHI METHOD

STATISTICAL METHODS

RENDPROJECTION

REGRESSION METHODS

BAROMETRIC METHOD

Though statistical techniques are essential in clarifying relationships and providing techniques of analysis, they are not substitutes for judgement. What is needed is some common sense mean between pure guessing and too much mathematics. Consumer Survey

Delphi method: it consists of an effort to arrive at a consensus in an uncertain area by questioning a group of experts repeatedly until the results appear to converge along a single line of the issues causing disagreement are clearly defined. Developed by Rand Corporation of the U.S.A in 1940s by Olaf Helmer, Dalkey and Gordon. Useful in technological forecasting (non-economic variables).

Advantages 1. Facilitates the maintenance of anonymity of the respondents identity throughout the course. 2. Saves time and other resources in approaching a large number of experts for their views. Limitations/presumptions: 1. Panelists must be rich in their expertise, possess wide knowledge and experience of the subject . 2. Presupposes that its conductors are objective in their job, possess ample abilities to conceptualize the problems for discussion, generate considerable thinking, stimulate dialogue among panelists and make inferential analysis of the multitudinal views of the participants.

Statistical methods are considered to be

superior due to the following reasons :

The element of subjectivity is minimum Method of estimation is Scientific. Estimates are more reliable. It is very economical method.

 THIS

METHOD IS USED WHEN A DETAILED ESTIMATE HAS TO BE MADE TIME PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THIS METHOD

This method uses historical and cross sectional data for estimating demand Finding a Trend value for a specific year
FINDING SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE VARIABLE PREDICTING TURNING POINTS IN FUTURE MOVEMENTS OF THE VARIABLE

Four sets of factors: secular trend (T), seasonal variation (S), cyclical fluctuations (C ), irregular or random forces (I). O (observations) = TSCI Assumptions: 1. The analysis of movements would be in the order of trend, seasonal variations and cyclical changes. 2. Effects of each component are independent of each other.

Mahindra & Mahindra Limited is the flagship company of the Mahindra Group, a multinational conglomerate based in Mumbai, India. The company was set up in 1945 in Ludhiana as Mahindra & Mohammed by brothers K.C. Mahindra and J.C. Mahindra and Malik Ghulam Mohammed. After India gained independence and Pakistan was formed, Mohammed emigrated to Pakistan where he became the nation's first finance minister. The company changed its name to Mahindra & Mahindra in 1948

Mahindra & Mahindra is a major automobile manufacturer of utility vehicles, passenger cars, pickups, commercial vehicles, and two wheelers. Its tractors are sold on six continents. It has acquired plants in China and the United Kingdom, and has three assembly plants in the USA.