Reliability, Availability, Maintainability

Value Improving Practices

The Approach

The Approach

The Approach

The Approach

The Approach

Risk

Risk

Risk Analysis

Probabilistic Risk Analysis

Reliability

Reliability

 Everyone has own notions about what the term reliability means - measure of performance. The role of reliability is observed daily by all of us. Reliability is one of the most important quality characteristics of components, products and systems. Does reliability add value to a product or a system?

 Historical perspective Starting from aircraft industry in World War I qualitative. 1940s, since the number of aircraft grew, quantified measures such as mean failure rate, number of failures have been used. 1950s, nuclear industries started to develop. Reliability theory and maintenance technology were being increasingly used in the design of nuclear power plants and their control system.

Definisi
Reliability The ability of an item (product, system) to operate properly without failure under designated operating conditions (such as temperature or volt) for a designated period of time or number of cycles. Cumulative probability of survival. Reliability may be used as a measure of the systems success in providing its function properly.

Definisi
Reliability as Probability The measurement of reliability depends on the use of statistics, and on the definition of reliability as a probability. Reliability : The probability that an item will perform a required function under stated conditions for a stated duration of operating life. Probability theory will be used frequently in reliability.

Definisi
Mathematical definition Let t be the time to failure of a item, a r.v. T be the time designated to the item to ensure the item being functional Cj, i=1,2,... be the designated conditions R(t) = Pr (t T|C1,C2,) If remove the condition R(t) = Pr {t T}

Reliability Engineering
Reliability Engineering provides the theoretical and practical tools for studying and specifying the reliability of components, products and systems so that these can perform their required functions in specified environments for the desired period without failure.

Reliability Engineering
Engineers carry out reliability predictions, FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) or FMECA, design testing programs, monitor and analyse field failures, and suggest design or manufacturing changes. Reliability engineering can be done by reliability engineers, design engineers, quality engineers, or system engineers. The overall goal of reliability engineering is to make your process and product more reliable in order to reduce repairs, lower costs, and to maintain your company's reputation and profitability.

Reliability Engineering
Reliability Engineering tools can be used to optimise the maintenance strategy so that maintenance and inspection tasks are effective and done at an optimal interval, to ensure: minimise cost of maintenance and operation over the lifecycle of the plant, minimise cost of failure, minimise safety and environment risks, minimise operational risks.

 Component Reliability (1) Basic Statistics

Basic Functions
Reliability Function - R( t ) From Mean time to Failure (MTTF) -

MTTF can be generalised by allowing n to become extremely large, then we can obtain a smooth curve - R(t)

Basic Functions
R(t) is the Probability of a component survival to time t. Properties:

Failure Function:
Basic Functions

F(t) = 1 R(t)
Properties: F(0) = 0, F() = 1 The failure function (or cumulative distribution function c. d. f.), is the probability that an item fails at or before age t.

 Probability Density Function - f(t)

The area under the curve between any two ages t 1 , t 2 , gives the probability that a new item will fail in that age interval. The total area under the curve adds up to 1, because every item is certain to fail at some time.

Probability Density Function, f( t)

Basic Functions
To prove f(t) is a density function: Since R(t) has negative slope, f(t) is always positive

the integral

Basic Functions
Failure rate - l(t):

f(t) is a measure of the overall speed at which failures are occurring. l(t) is a measure of the instantaneous speed of failure. Also called Hazard rate with bathtub shape

Bathtub Curve

Importance of the Failure Rate Pattern

Identification of the failure pattern is an important factor in maintenance decision making. It helps identify the root cause of failure. There is a tendency to assume that wear out causes most failures, but in fact, burn- in and random failures are more common. The identification of the failure pattern or patterns will give a useful indicator of how to find, and hence eliminate the physical cause of failure.

Failure patterns and causes of failure

Failure Rate Pattern: Burn in Clue to Cause of Failure: Manufacturing defect or fault installation Operational problems; External factors; Aggregate of many causes. Corrosion Product insufficiently robust Normal wear

Random
Gradual wearout Premature wearout Mature wearout

Six Failure Rate Patterns

Bathtub curve for human

Failure Rate with/without maintenance

Failure Rate Patterns with maintenance

Relationships
R(t), f(t) and (t) are related. If any one of these functions are known, the other two can be derived to help the analysis.

 If R(t) is known:

 If f(t) is known:

 If (t) is known:

The relationship between R(t), F(t) and f(t)

END

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